Saturday, August 13, 2011

Saratoga August 13th - The Locks

After coming off a tough 2 days handicapping, the best thing about horseracing is that there is another day to bet.   


Coming to the Spa at Saratoga is a great day and although August packs in alot of other things that you'd like to do, Saratoga should be on everyone's calendar.   Suggestion is to get up the night before.....I made a bit of a tactical error last weekend...I took a train up to Albany...which is very easy and the views of the Hudson River Valley from the train are absolutely beautiful at dusk and this was not a mistake at all.  My mistake was in staying in downtown Albany and then looking for a place to get something to eat at around 10:30 at night.  I saw a "Jillians" which to me meant a good sports bar where I could set myself up at the bar with the next day's racing form to handicap and also watch some baseball with a plate of boneless (can't eat anything on a bone) chicken wings and a nice cold beer.  


My plan was quickly disrupted as I had to weave my way through some tussle that was going on outside the bar to faced with a young bouncer who actually made me produce some ID.  Once inside I realized that this Jillians is much different than the ones I've seen in places like Charlotte NC or watched the US vs Algeria World Cup match in SF -- it was something of a club...not like a "can I provide you a jacket and tie, sir" club but a "dzzzzt dzzzzt dzzzzt" club - complete with a calvacade of the biggest collection of meatheads I've seen since days at the Oak Beach Inn.  It was like the cast and crew of Jersey Shore had been dropped into the Capital district but given extra doses of 'roids and a mountain of blow.   I actually feared for my life as I tried to make my way to the bar past a phalanx of these losers and actually got a stare down as I dared to order a beer at the bar.   I slugged down the beer fast and made a hasty exit.    Ugh!  Other local places that I thought I could grab some quick pub food were much of the same.  So I retreated back to my hotel which didn't have room service to offer after midnight...was able to handicap some more as I had difficulty sleeping.   Not to sound like a snob but with my frequent travel for work - I am not used to staying at hotels that are less than 5 stars and the Capital City Marriott/Radisson/Doubletree/Whatever was 2 stars short of my usual comfort zone.   But....besides this tactical error it is good to get up the night before because you do want to start your day at Saratoga early.    Will fill in more on what you plan to do at the Spa before/during and after the races in subsequent posts....but lets get to today's card.....a challenging card that features 6!!! maiden races.


1st race....#1 Monastir at 7/2 won at this distance and course last year vs tougher competition, #5 Millennium Jet 10-1, when going 1m or 1 1/16m on turf this year has 4 in the $$ starts against similar.  


2nd race...MSW for NYS bred 2yos...#1 Little Dale 7-2 comes back for Big Dale Romans to take next step after a place debut, #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1, also looks to step up after runner-up debut.  #7 Jaw Crusher, 5-1, has good works for debut but for trainer that doesn't debut well.


3rd race...short field not much value to be had....#1 at 2-1 Wall Dance and #3 at 7-2 Gallant Fields have just as much chance as winning as chalk #2, 9/5 Quality Counsel.


4th race...Maiden Claiming, have 7 of 9 horses that were no closer than 6 lengths from winner in last race, the other 2 are #1 6-1 Lemon Ghost racing for the Foster Grant Kid (DWLukas) and #2 4-1 Mr Popps --- can't see to where else put my money.


5th race...#8 Simbamangu 6-1, was 7th in last race, which was on turf at Saratoga but was only 2+ lengths off of win.  #6 Imaging at 3-1, looks like an obvious choice from Shug's barn, #1 Suprise Strike at 12-1 could pick up a piece.


6th race...#1 Superstructure, 5-1, good works from a good debut barn which is a good combo, #4, How Do I Win, 3-1, Pletcher's charge had a debut 3rd wants to move on from there.  #7 Burned Bridges, 8-1, Bernadini colt has good works for Kiaran who usually doesn't tighten the screws on 1sters.


7th race....#10 Dullan 6-1, Romans does well with first timers on turf and this horse has luxury of 2 starts already #9 Actuarial, has turf pedigree to win in future on the green but is the colt ready today? #4 Our Midnight Run at 6-1, hmmmm..


8th race...#2 Karakorum Legend, 8-1 has success on course as well at distance, #7 Screenplay, 9/2, has recent success and good success at distance.  #6 Unaccountable, 4-1, looks to make it 4 in a row.


9th race...#3 Power Blast, 5/2, Linda Rice is the queen of turf sprints, #9 Isntlovegrand, 12-1 showed can win at distance/course recently, #8 Out of Your Mind at 30-1 could be a good flyer since had trouble in last and won turf sprint at Belmont recently.


10th race...G1, Sword Dancer, 1 1/2m on turf....Can #3 Rahy's Attorney at 8-1 steal it on front end..#8 Winchester, 5/2 is horse to beat because not sure Teak's North away from Monmouth is worth it at 3-1


11th race.....not very good horses that at this late hour are hard to differentiate...think may go all over all and hope some longshots hit the exacta.




Now for the Locks:


Race 1....  $6 W #5, $3 PL #5, $3 WP #1,  $1 DD #1, #5 with #1, #3, #7.... Bets = $21
Race 2....  $7 W #1, $1 all/#1, $1 ex #1,#3,#7 ....Bets = $20
Race 3....  $3 W #3, $1 DD #1, #2, #3 with #1, #2... Bets = $9
Race 4...   $1 exacta #1, #2 over all.   $1 exacta all over #1, #2  Bets = $32
Race 5...   $1 DD #8, #6, #1 with #1, #4, #7  $6 WP #8,  $3 WP #6... Bets = $27
Race 6...   $ 1 exacta #1 with all, $1 exacta all with #1  Bets = $16
Race 7...   $ 1 exacta #10, #9, #4, $1 trifecta #10,#9,#4 Bets = $12
Race 8...   $ 10 win #7, $5 win #2, $1 exacta #7, #2, #6  $1 DD #7, #2, #6 with #3, #9, #8. Bets = $30
Race 9...  $ 5 WP #8, $10 W #3...$1 DD #3, #9, #8 with #3, #8 .Bets = $26
Race 10...$ 10 W #3, $5 WP #8
Race 11... conditional bet....if up or less than $40 down, lets walk away....if more lets play some roulette $1 exacta all over all... $121 bet...


Good Luck!!!


Epilogue


Hit a couple of exactas and a daily double and a couple of winners...on $187 of bets returned $189+ of bets..... 


Now if we made the Race 11 all over all bet.... it paid box cars!!!... $541 for a $1 exacta where we would have made $121 bet for a net of $420!!!

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