Lets look at the Locks.
1st Race, 6f, Allowance/Optional Claiming 3yo+ NYS-breds.
I see a speed duel between the favorite Wise Stop and The Zipster pushed along by Game Token, Too Tough Pete, and Jackson N Humboldt. So will take stand against the favorite and look to Dahlgren Chapel coming off pace to take a piece if not the pie. DC threw in 3 clunkers (but one of them in the G3 Tom Fool) in a row but regained some form in last. There is a sentimental factor on Dahlgren Chapel as its the name of the chapel that sits in the quad behind the Healy Building at Georgetown. Looking for Jackson N Humboldt to make the exacta as it hasn't failed to do so in each of its 5 starts. Owned by Brooklyn Boyz Stables so would like to see the horse win so I can see in the winners circle the collection of Joey Baggadonuts that are connected with the gelding.
Lets go $10 win DC, $1 saver exacta
$5 exacta DC + JNH
$4 WP JNH
2nd Race, 5.5f, Madien Claiming ($150k Claim!!!), 2yoF
I admittedly don't have a proven strategy on 2yo madien races except not betting on trainers that have a low 1st Start % and looking at workouts.
I am looking at three horses, Singlet, Heather's Feather and Tiara.
Singlet bought in April at OBS April so had to have been trained up to the sale and since with Dutrow has been training well at Delaware. Heather's Feather trained by Todd Pletcher who goes about 22% winners on 1st starts and comes in with a bunch of works including real solid gate works. Tiara has been training well for Dale Romans.
With each of these going off at low odds 5-1, 7-2, 4-1 can't bet on all 3 and expect any return so doing a bit of an experiment on betting so lets go $10 win on the 5-1, Singlet. $5 place on HF and $5 show (yes, a show bet!) on Tiara. Then $1 exacta box on all three.....experimenting here
3rd Race, 1 1/8m, The Madame Jumel Stakes 3yo+F+M that have not won a graded stakes in 2010 or 2011.
Looking at 3 horses that have been out of the money a total 2 times in their collective careers. Arena Elvira races for Mott and will be stretching out from running last 5 races at a mile or less, but does have a close 2nd at 1 1/8m. Bubble Gum has raced for Stronach Stables up across the border where they riot over power play goals...only race out of money was on off track and comes in off a 2nd in a listed stakes going 1 1/8th mile. Sweet N Sour Nina is having a solid 2011 including her last which was a 3rd in the graded Obeah Stakes behind winnner, leading race mare, Havre de Grace.
Again the Locks is looking at horses with odds of 3-1, 5-1, 7-2 respectively. Going with Bubble Gum to move on from its solid 2011 debut to take the race. Let me continue my experiment with $10 win BG, $5 place Sweet N Sour Nina, $5 show Arena Elvira and $1 exacta box on all three. I do reserve right if my 2nd race is disasterous to change up the strategy.
4th race, MSW, 5.5f turf, 2yoF
Assategue's trainer Michael Matz doesn't usually tighten the screws on his 1st timers but at 10-1 horse had a bullet work is worth to keep eye on. Inny Minnie $240k purchase solid works and Margolis winning at a 23% clip in 2011. Coral Glide races for Pletcher who has been getting alot out of the fillie in the mornings.
Inny Minny $10 win $1 saver exacta....Assateague $5 WP....$1 exacta all three.
5th race, Claiming $35k, 1 1/6m turf, 3yo+ F&M,
$5 win/place on 30-1 JC's Queen (like the name) but also actually has decent last 2 race Beyers compared to field. $10 win Witch's Orchard, $1 exacta saver.
6th race, Madien Claiming $20k, 3yo+, NYS bred
La Festa E Domani is a 50-1 horse that has lost by a total of 180 lengths but may actually have enough speed to win or at least place.
7th race, The Johns Call, 3yo+, 1 5/8m!! Turf,
Sangas won 4 out of 5 in Deutschland before racing at in the G3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago ran 7th in race but only 31/4 lengths behind an race line shows was held up between horses so figure to improve at extra distance and a race under belt in the US.
Memorial Maniac at 30-1 and the only horse in the field to win at distance.
Simmard solid career and this race fits nicely for the horse.
Sangas $10 win $1 exacta saver
MM $4 WP
$1 exacta 6,7,8.
8th race, Allowance, 1/16m inner turf, 3yo+ NYS bred
Gamblin Fever, Seattle Mission, Alstom look to be the Locks
9th race, 2yo NYSbred 5.5 f turf.
Adriatic Spirit, Adirondack Dancer, Skorton are the Locks in this one.
Good Luck
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Epilogue
Race 1....
Dahlgren Chapel wins..$36.50 win less $34 bets = $2.50 win
Race 2
Singlet wins....$70 win less $26 bets = $44 win.
Race 3
Arena Elvira wins $6.75 win less $26 bets = $19.25 loss.
Race 4
Inny Minny 2nd.... $44.50 win less $35 bets = $9.50 win.
Race 5
$0 win less $29 bets = $29 loss
Race 7
Sangas wins....$69 win $33 bet = $36 win
Race 8
Seattle Mission 2nd
Race 9
Adriatic Spirit 3rd.
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