To be honest, I first grew conscious of the Travers, the summer that Easy Goer won at 1-5 odds. That summer, I was interning in Manhattan for JP Morgan's Private Banking group. I commuted to work via the LIRR and took to handicapping to pass the time. I first handicapped the end of the Belmont meet and then the Saratoga meet when horseman took their tack upstate for August. As I was working on an intern "salary" my daily bets were limited to a $2 bet on each of the usual 9 race card and I'd round up to $20 by placing 1 exotic bet usually on the 8th/feature race. I didn't have much handicapping sense except I liked horses that won alot and in maiden races I only bet on horses that had raced only 2 or 3 times. That summer I learned a few things....to start, I learned horses names and if they were any good at all as over that summer I may see a horse's name in the entries, 4 times (2x at Belmont and 2x at Saratoga). I learned that a guy named J D Bailey was riding a lot of the horses that had low odds and won a bunch. I learned that Shug's name was really, Claude R. McGaughey III and he trained horses other than Easy Goer and these horses were pretty good. I learned that if you were going to make any money betting on horses you can't bet place and show bets on chalk! I also learned from one of the private banker's that it wasn't standard at JPM to have your OTB betting slips laid out on your desk unless you had bet on your own (or your client's) horse. Whodathunk??
As I noted in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, a lot can be learned from looking at the history of a race such as the Classics and the Travers. As I've said several times I am not a real historian, I was one class shy of a history minor at Georgetown, so I couldn't be expected to analyze the 141 other runnings of the Travers but I did take a look at the races from that summer Easy Goer won for the Phipps. Some real interesting things will help widdle down the field for us:
- Only Birdstone in 2004 and Easy Goer won the race without running in either the Jim Dandy, the Haskell or the Swaps Stakes. Birdstone won the Belmont and then trained up to the Travers while Easy Goer prepped for the Travers by winning the Whitney! -a grade 1 usually for older horses...
- Out of those horses that ran in the Jim Dandy, the Haskell, or the Swaps only Sea Hero in 1993 didn't come in the top 3 of those races.
- Horses that had run in a Triple Crown race won at average odds of 2.65-1 while horses that didn't run in a Triple Crown race won at average odds of 5.60-1
- Horses that won in their last race have won at average odds of 2.5-1 while horses that didn't come off a win won at an average odds of 4.60-1.
- The median starts for winners before the Travers over this period was 8 and the median wins before the Travers for winners was 4.
- During this period, no horse has won at odds over 7.80-1.
Here's the field......
# HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER
1 Bowman's Causeway ML: 12-1 R. Dominguez C. Brown
2 Rattlesnake Bridge ML: 8-1 J. Velazquez K. McLaughlin
3 Moonshine Mullin ML: 20-1 E. Wilson R. Baker
4 Ruler On Ice ML: 6-1 J. Valdivia, Jr. K. Breen
5 Malibu Glow ML: 20-1 R. Maragh G. Weaver
6 Raison d'Etat ML: 10-1 E. Castro W. Mott
7 Coil ML: 3-1 M. Garcia B. Baffert
8 J W Blue ML: 20-1 C. Velasquez A. Dutrow
9 Stay Thirsty ML: 5-2 J. Castellano T. Pletcher
10 Shackleford ML: 9-2 J. Castanon D. Romans
Here is the Locks, horse-by-horse analysis:
Bowman's Causeway
Like Elisha Cuthbert, Emmanuelle Chriqui and rapper Drake, (hmmmm for those who haven't watched TV since 1990 let me use the references of John Candy, Dan Ackroyd and Michael J. Fox), Bowman's Causeway hails from the great white north, Canada. Looking at our history lesson above, the horse is a complete toss, only 1 win, didn't race in US triple crown, didn't race in one of the key races. A great quote from Wayne's World starring famous Canadian, Michael Meyers is I once thought I had mono for a whole year. It turned out I was just really bored. And this may be apropos....may think there is nothing here with this horse, but really I see the highest Locks Speed Figures, 110/104, in last 2 races + Moonshine Mullin scored a place finish in the Jim Dandy after racing with marginal success up north across the border and Bowman's Causeway comes in with a better resume + solid workouts at Saratoga show that the horse can handle the track. Consider.
Rattlesnake Bridge
Not too many thoroughbred owners have a license to print money. This colt's owner actually had his name printed on US legal tender. Colt is owned by Treasury Secretary, Nicholas Brady and his brother, James. Even if the Brady boys contributed its purse winnings, if any, to prop up US Treasuries, by my account the Treasury will still be $14 trillion shy of breaking even. My guess is this horse won't earn that much on Saturday and we'll be looking at a national sales tax in the not-so-distant future. Colt is nicely bred if this race was going 1 mile but its going 2 furlongs further which may be one of the horse's undoings. Also the horse is lightly raced and doesn't come in from a key race. Pass....the hat...
Moonshine Mullin
Comes into Saturday's race with a place finish in the Jim Dandy at 37+-1 - I actually had an across the board bet on MM in the Jim Dandy (anyone else thinking of that big-ass Friendly's sundae when they hear that) and made money on the horse but the bet was on an arbitrage on odds because of high Locks Speed Index in races coming into the Jim Dandy. Really didn't think the horse would actually hit the board but did to my delight. Really if you look at the replay of the race, MM wasn't really a threat to Stay Thirsty. Will look elsewhere even for the exotics.
Ruler On Ice
I somehow liked this horse in the Belmont and did reward me with some big payouts on the win and exacta. I actually like this gelding (ouch!) in this race. Comes in with a Triple Crown victory, a third place finish in the Haskell, 8 starts with 3 wins on the resume. The bullet :58+ work 2 weeks ago showed that the horse can be keyed up for the race. Has shown can handle different tracks as Saratoga is the 8th track RoI will race at in 9 races. Consider.
Malibu Glow
Doesn't fit profile of a Travers Stakes winner....lightly raced, no Triple Crown, no key prep, odds greater than 8-1.....betting on this horse to win would be the equivalent of taking Jacquizz Rodgers in the first round of your fantasy football draft.....yes, there is a element of the unknown but success is extremely remote. Pass.
Raison D' Etat
This is far more French than your typical New Yorker can handle....luckily DSK keeps his moniker simple or no one would have put the time to learn to utter his full name. Raison D' Etat, the colt is greener than Al Gore and lightly raced and not the typical horse you'd see Bill Mott take to a graded stakes but Juddmonte's stables have been hot as of late. Juddmonte also is the owner of the best racehorse in the world in the monster, Frankel. see for yourself:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghUY0k4YX1k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iicnjw_U6Qc
Despite the success of its connections, this colt's task to win the Travers will prove too much. Will not win.
Coil
Bob Baffert's talented colt has been giving silver-haired Bob fits in deciding on whether to run in the race. Baffert knows the horse is talented and has shown versatility in stumbling at break in the Haskell to come off the pace to win. But Bob has been critical of the Saratoga track but when Coil shot off a :46 workout bullet this week, Baffert was left with no excuses but to run the horse. Somehow all this gives me the impression that Baffert doesn't think the horse will win although the horse fits well with the historic profile. Has 4 wins in 6 starts, raced with success in 2 key Travers preps (Haskell (win), Swaps(2nd)), is the son of a Travers Stakes winner. The questions may be whether the horses natural speed will be able to be harnessed with committed front runner Shackleford prompting the pace. At 3-1, Baffert's body language tells me that I'd look elsewhere (caveat: Graham Motion's comments ahead of the Kentucky Derby turned me off of Animal Kingdom!) but the horse's talent will keep it in the mix.
JW Blue
Name sounds like what the "hip" lounge at the Kansas City Marriott would be called...read that as a place where balding, slightly overweight guys in company polo shirts take their slightly younger, slightly less poorly dressed assistants and swill on watered down mint martinis....don't think this bar would make it in NY and I likewise don't think this nicely bred colt will see success in the Travers. Horse hasn't shown it really wants to win a race as has been outfinished in last 2. Could benefit from a speed duel upfront but I don't think will be in mix at the end.
Stay Thirsty
Stay Thirsty is as New York as red clam chowder, alternate side of the street parking, and eating a bagel and a slice of pizza that doesn't blow. Stay Thirsty is John Turturro, Hova, and Lou Carnesecca combined. Colt has a record of 3 wins and 3 2nds in 6 starts within the borders of New York State. Including a 4 length score in the Jim Dandy Stakes at the end of July. The son of a Travers winner is 0 for 3 outside the Empire State. Even the garish blue and orange silks stink of New York. Profile fits perfectly for this race. Only question is on the morning tab - does Pletcher have the screws tightened for this colts potentially biggest race? Fuggedaboutit....will need the horse in the mix.
Shackleford
NY restauranteur and racing fan, Danny Meyer again has kept up his vow to give customers free custard at his Shake Shack outlets upon Shackleford's victory. With Shake Shack opening up on the Westport/Fairfield border I've been thoroughly enjoying their burgers and shakes on the weekends. Very tricky to think on how this horse will do in this race. Fits profile well....9 starts, 3 wins, winner in Preakness, close 2nd in the Haskell but as in Derby and in Belmont will racing on the front end, albeit, courageously, be the recipe for victory?
The Locks has the race playing out where Shackleford will prompt the pace with Coil beside him. Raison D' Etat, Moonshine Mullin will race off of these 2 followed by Stay Thirsty and Ruler on Ice just behind them. The rest will find places among or trailing the field. I feel that the Shackleford and Coil may fight on till the end but Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty look to prevail. Unfortunately, the Superfecta may be the top 4 betting interests and not pay much.
The Locks will be:
$20 Win on Ruler on Ice
$2 exacta all over Ruler on Ice.
$2 exacta box Ruler On Ice, Stay Thirsty, Coil, Bowman's Causeway
$1 trifecta box RoI, ST, Coil, Bowman's Causeway
The Travers is not a race you will win box-cars but the pay-outs may be profitable if RoI does prevail.
Epilogue
Stay Thirsty, the ultimate New Yorker, wins....followed by Rattlesnake Bridge and J W Blue to complete an unlikely exacta and trifecta. Ruler on Ice finishes 4th but was given, to be polite, an unusual ride. Hustled to near front, dropped back to field and then kept to task. Unfortunately we don't have any tickets to cash but tomorrow is another day.
Look also for the Locks on the other graded stakes including 2 other Grade 1s on the card: Ballston Spa (II), VIctory Ride (III), Ballerina (I), Kings Bishop (I)
Good Luck!!!
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