Arlington Million - The Locks

Lived in Chicago back in the day of Awad...however, my priorities at that time were a bit out of whack...I was more interested in where were the happy hour specials at on a Wednesday rather than handicapping horses.   I did still make it back to NY for the Belmont Stakes and always bet the Preakness and knew who was having the Derby party but didn't think much of the Arlington Million in that day as it was "just a turf race"....I've gotten wiser over the years and have realized that top dirt racing is somewhat unique to the US and that the horses that run at Arlington in August may actually be some of the best in the world.    

Today's card at Arlington features 3 G1 turf races....keep in mind the UK has only 3 Group 1 races in all of August...expresses the importance of today's card.

Secretariat Stakes, 1 1/4 m, turf, 3yos.

Race features Treasure Beach, the colt that won the Irish Derby and lost the Derby at Epsom only by a short head but by keying the horse at 25-1 actually won me a ton of $$.  Did come up short at Longchamp as a follow up to those two performances.   Treasure Beach will go off at 2-1 but may be beatable as the horse has shown less success at distances less than 1 1/2m.    As such I will look at Irish bred, French trained, Ziyarid at 10-1 to potentially wire the field as there doesn't appear to be other horses that want the lead.   Lets also put US horse , Wilcox Inn in the mix off of its 2 for 2 showing on the Arlington turf.

lets bet $10 win on Ziyarid with a $1 exacta saver

Beverly D Stakes, 1 3/16m, turf, 3yo+, F&M

Stacelita 3-1, French trained was favorite in United Nations Stakes and finished a close third. Has spent the last month or so in US training up for this race.  Fantasia won at this track and distance just little over a month ago.   Romin Robin 30-1 was 2nd to Fantasia in this race last month after getting a dodgy start.  Has 3 wins on the Arlington turf.  Cheetah having a good 2011.  

Lets put $5 WP on Romin Robin, $1 ex S, F, RR, C.

Arlington Million, 1 1/4 m turf, 3yo+

Cape Blanco 9/5 and Gio Ponti 2-1 appear to be the ones to beat and may not be beatable....Cape Blanco, has won the Irish Derby and Irish Champions Stakes in the past before making mark in US with a G1 win in July. Gio Ponti is a winner and runner up in this race as well as a runner up to Cape Blanco in July among other exploits.  If a horse is to beat these 2 it will be Mission Approved at 6-1 is a pace setter and beat Gio Ponti in the G1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day on the front end.

Lets bet $10 win on Mission Approved.  $1 ex CB, GP, MA.

Also may consider the Festival $1 Pick 3.....

with Treasure Beach, Wilcox Inn and Ziyarid in firt leg, Romin Robin, Fantasia, Cheetah, Stacelita and then you can choose just to go Mission Approved for a $12 bet or add Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti for a $36 bet 

Good luck!!!!


EPILOGUE
Only when chalk rules do you hit 2 exactas and a Pick 3 on 3 races and don't make money.   On $56 of bets, the exactas paid exactly $22.80 for a net of $33.20 adding the Pick 3 it would be $92 of bets, payout of $39.20 for a net down of $52.80.