September 3rd 2011 Saratoga - The Locks

Handicapping the last weekend of Saratoga has that same feeling I had during my Bayview School days during the last week of August... visits to Jimmy's Barber Shop -- run ably (still!!!) by the wigged Angelo, Suffolk Stores for school supplies, and then a visit to South Shore Mall Foot Locker - the year I got the dark blue suede Puma Clydes was awesome.   These are the signs that summer is about to end....maybe post-Irene for many the realities of damage clean up shocked you back into reality from summer bliss a week earlier than you'd want to be. 

Have 3 Grade 1s going on Saturday.


Person Ensign Invitational - 1 1/4m - F&M 3yo+
2-1 Ask the Moon is certainly beatable.  Although the Ruffian steal on fairly quick fractions was an impressive race.  It was this mare's only win in 2 years. Lets go Pachattack, the only horse that has won (or even has raced) at the distance.  Been working well for this one too.  I am not overly thrilled with the others.


$5 Win Pachattack
$1 exacta Pachattack over all
$1 exacta all over Pachattack


Epilogue
Ask the Moon wins, Pachattack 2nd.
Bets $15 Win $9.50 Net -$5.50


The Forego, 7f, 3yo+
Field has quite a few horses that have an identity crisis....can't figure out at what distance they are good at.   A couple of 6furlong horses looking to stretch and a number of routers looking to cut back.    Jackson Bend, 5-2, has been routing but certainly found that 7 furlongs may be to the colt's liking as impressively won at the distance at the Spa in July.  Actually is 2 for 2 at the distance.   That score earned JB a 111 Locks Speed Index. Also has been working lights out.  
Golddigger's Boy 15-1 is a neck shy of a perfect 6 for 6 in 2011 including 2 wins at 7f.   Will get a good price because is shipping in from Philly but racing for a trainer that is winning at nearly a 30% clip.   Working well for the race.


The Locks are:
Jackson Bend $10 WP
Golddiggers Boy $5WP
$4 exacta box JB/GB


Epilogue
Jackson Bend wins impressively. Golddiggers Boy went to knees at start had to be hustled to keep in contact with field - got into contention during stretch but faded.
Bet $38 Win $44.50+$24  Net = +$30.50


Woodward, 1 1/8m 3yo+
Race features super racemare Havre de Grace 8-5 running against the boys for first time.  In getting less than 5-2 I always like to look elsewhere for value.  Here is an interesting one.....Mambo Meister at 10-1, 2 for 3 in last 3 at Calder but Locks Speed Index in last 3 are an astonishing, 119,115 and 114. Flat Out at 5/2 has a good resume with a win in the Suburban and placing in the Whitney.   Rule 5-1 won at distance/track in early August even after being floated out 5 wide. 


The Locks are
$1 exacta MM over all
$1 exacta all over MM
$2 exacta box FO,R,MM, HdG
$1 trifecta box FO, R, MM, HdG


Epilogue
Mambo Meister outclassed. Harve de Grace beats the boys. Flat Out 2nd. Rule 3rd.
Bet $38 Win $17 + $25.50 Net +$4.50


Good Luck!!!

2011 Travers Stakes Day Undercard - The Locks

Big race days are a treat for the handicapper.   First, you get alot of what I would call "dumb money".   That's the money that likes the sentimental story, the female jockey, the pretty silks, the funny name, the favorites.   


So if you actually done your homework, you can certainly find value on big race days.  


Also on big race days, you not only have the "big race" but will have several other stakes and this Saturday is no exception.   There are 4 other Graded Stakes on the card.


The undercard includes:

• The Ballston Spa, Grade 2, for fillies and mares 3yo+ going 1 1/16m on the turf
• The Victory Ride, Grade 3, for 3yo fillies going 6 furlongs on the dirt
• The Ballerina, Grade 1, for fillies and mares 3yo+ going 7 furlongs on the dirt
• The Kings Bishop, Grade 1, for 3yos, going 7 furlongs on the dirt

Caveat: Handicapping right now is assuming that Hurricane Irene will not impact the track/course

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR082711USA-EQB.html

The Ballston Spa

Romoacaca (7/2) comes into the race on a 5 race win streak and hasn't been out of the money since running 4th in the Beverly D last August.  Daveron (3/1) a German-bred has done well since shifting to Graham Motion's shed.  Has 3 wins/1 2nd on 4 tries at distance.  Aviate (4/1) was outgunned in last 2 which were G1s but dropping slightly in class may help. Has worked well at the Spa to prep for this one.  Trix in the City (12-1) could steal the race on the front end but seems to have distance limitation at 1 mile.  0 for 3 at 1 1/16th.  

$10 Win Aviate

$1 Exacta All over Aviate

$2 Exacta Romoacaca, Daveron, Aviate

$4 Win Trix in the City

The Victory Ride

Jealous Girl (3-1) is a perfect 4 for 4 after her failed debut.  Even though been racing on a lower circuit speed translates...108/110 Locks Speed Index in last 2.  Question is how she will do with many horses in field wanting the lead.  Valiant Passion (7/2) is the other favorite in the race off of a 6+ length allowance victory at the Spa a few weeks ago.  But speed figs (Beyer, Locks) are suspect.  Going to give Hot Summer(8/1) a look.   Hot Summer is a sprinter that was asked to route in top races - now back to its bread and butter - training well for debut off layoff...

$10 win Jealous Girl 

$2 exacta JG, VP, HS

$3WP Hot Summer

The Ballerina

The 2-1 favorite Hilda's Passion is beatable...when racing against foes in this race has not won.  Sassy Image (5/2) will come off the pace to attempt to win.  Riding a 3 race win streak including 2 Grade 1 wins.   Tamarind Hall (6-1) in last 5, 4 wins and 1 2nd.  109/112 Locks Speed Index in last 2.  Tar Heel Mom (7/2) ..horse for the course, 3 wins out of 4 starts.  

$10 win Sassy Image

$3 WP Tamarind Hall 

$2 ex SI, TH, THM

The King's Bishop

We have the return of Uncle Mo and he was installed as 9/5 favorite.  Will he be ready to face off against talented foes who may be primed to go??  Flashpoint (5/2) crushed the field in the Hutchenson, another 3yo 7f graded stakes. Training is lights out.   Dominus (6-1) a middle distance horse that faltered on the stretch out but may be better at this distance. 

$10 Win Dominus

$1 exacta all over Dominus

The Grand Slam bet will include the 7th race + The Ballston Spa + The Victory Ride + the Ballerina.   The Grand Slam is fun to bet.   Again its picking a horse to come in the top 3 in the first 3 races (races 7,8,9) and then the winner in the last (race 10).

The Locks Travers Day Grand Slam bet is:

Leg 1: #6 Fizzano, #7 Gamblin Fever,  #1 Seattle Mission

Leg 2: #7 Aviate, #2 Romacaca

Leg 3: #2 Jealous Girl, #8 Valiant Passion

Leg 4: #7 Sassy Image, #2 Tamarind Hall, #6 Tar Heel Mom

The bet will cost 3 x 2 x 2 x 3 = $36

Good Luck!!!

Saratoga August 20th - The Locks

Saratoga, Alabama Stakes day.....Grade 1 race which may help decide who will be 3yo filly horse of the year.  


Adding to my suggestions on enjoying a day at Saratoga, when you actually go to the course that day, I suggest having secured a seat somehow.  You can do so by getting in the lottery ahead of the meet...go to www.nyra.com or going through a broker. Ranging from owners box to the grandstand section Y seats can be had but possibly at the right price.   There are "sun seats" but under the molten August sun or a threat of rain, my suggestion on that goes the same line as a Finger Lakes shipper, "pass" on those.  


For the life of me I don't understand but many who attend Saratoga don't even see a racehorse, many will park out in front of the many TVs that litter the grounds surrounding the facility, with packed cooler, beach chairs.   The whole set up of these picnics reminds me alot of Central Hong Kong on Sundays where the maids come to enjoy their only day off and set up in 1000s of small groups to picnic and talk the day away.  I know people that like to picnic this way do it for years and really enjoy themselves.   Personally, I don't get it.  I am at the track to see the horses live.  


Once in and under the assumption you have seats rather than picnic-ing, there are some great food options at Saratoga.  I like to get myself the freshly squeezed lemonade and depending on mood step that up with some contraband vodka.   You should aim to get yourself the Fried Chicken sandwich at the on track outpost of Hatties Chicken Shack....Fried Chicken and Lemonade can't get too much Americana than that!   Danny Meyer also has set up outposts of 2 of his NY based restaurants at the course too....Blue Smoke BBQ and the Shack Shack can be now found at the track.  Once nourished you can now check the day's scratches and jockey changes et al and finish your handicapping.   


Now for today's Locks....


Race 1.
Crea's Law  #7, 4-1, no worse than 4th in career including stakes tries

Green Monster #6, 5-2, good works, only 2nd race vs state-breds

$10 Win #7, $2 Ex Box #7,#6, $2 DD #7,#6 w/ #10, #9, #5

Race 2.
Rock Star Charlie #10, 8-1, good works for trainer than does well with juveniles
Mississippi Duel #9, 3-1, had decent debut, pedigree suggest can handle 8-9 furlongs.
Fox Rules #5, 20-1, troubled trip in debut, pedigree also suggests stretch out may not be issue.

$10 Win #10, $3 W #5, $1 ex box #10,#9,#5

Race 3
Le Festa E Domani #9, 20-1, bet this long shot when I was at the Spa and the gelding raced better than its odds, maybe will improve again to hit board or win
Calico Mountain #1, 3-1, 3rd in last race which was run at Saratoga under same conditions
One Way to Rock #3, 5-2, bad trip in last will improve

$4 Win #9, $1 DD, #9, #1, #3 w/ #2, #4, #6


Race 4
Black Diablo #2, 8-1 3rd race at the Spa this meet, 3x a charm?
Running Tap #4, 5-2, dropping down in class may help
Take a Walk #6, 5-1, speed figs suggest could contend

$5 WP #2 $1 ex box , #2, #4, #6

Race 5
Katy's Office Girl #2, 7-2, decent last 4 starts all on the turf
Virging On Stardom #10, 10-1, will get pace to run at??
Short Shrift #4, 5-2, 2nd race back on flat turf after trying the hurdles

$6 W #2, $4 P #2, $1 exbox #2, #10,#4, $2 DD #2, #10, #4 w/ #11, #6, #4

Race 6
Rightfully So, #11, 10-1, beautifully bred, working out great
News Pending #6, 5-1, stable having luck at Spa
Granpa Len #4, 5-1, trainer does better with 2nd timers

$10 win #11, $4 Pl #11, $1 ex #11, #6, #4


Race 7
Dodging #10, 9-2,
Mosquito #9, 4-1
Dahess, #8, 5-1

$5 WP #10
Grand Slam (fun bet!)  #10, #9, #8  w/ #3, #5, #1 w/ #5, #8 w/ #6, #3, #4

Race 8
Saturday Classic, #3, 7-2,
Animal Spirits, #1, 8-1
Tiz a Homerun, #5, 3-1

$10 Win #3, $5 Pl #3,  $1 ex-box, #3, #1, #5

Race 9
La Reine Lionne #5, 5-2, 4 wins in 8 turf starts
Media Madness #8, 5-1. in money in all starts except last which was a graded stakes going 1 3/8m
In Te Domine #6, 12-1, last 2 were troubled trips looks to get back to good form

$10 w #8, $5 pl #8, $1 ex-box #5, #8, #6

Race 10, The Alabama
Inglorious #6, 6-1 won against the boys in Canada's biggest 3yo race going 1 1/4m shooting off a 109 JCC Speed Index
Its Tricky #4, 9/5, going for the Triple Tiara after capturing Acorn and CCA Oaks
Plum Pretty #3, 2/1, won Kentucky Oaks, 2nd to Its Tricky in CCA Oaks at Saratoga in late July
St. Johns River #5, 5-1,no worse than 2nd since debut, will Its Tricky and Plum Pretty hook up to push each for fast fractions to set up this filly for a late run??

$10 win #6, $ 5 pl #6, $1 ex #6, #4, #5,#3, $1 tri 6,4,5,3.....both exacta and trifecta will only pay  decently if either PP or IT doesn't hit top spot.

EPILOGUE
Race 1. Green Monster wins, $14 bets $0 win
Race 2. Fox Rules wins!!, $31 bets, $70.8 + $239.00(daily double) = $309.8, Net $278.80
Race 3. One Way to Rock wins, $4bets, $0 win
Race 4. Running Tap wins, $3 bets, $2.70 (daily double) win
Race 5. Short Shrift wins, $2bets, $0 win
Race 6, Grandpa Len 3rd, $32 bets $0 win
Race 7, Mosquito 2nd, $10 bets, $0 win
Race 8, Animal Spirts 2nd, $21 bets, $0win
Race 9, Le Reine Lione wins, $21 bets, $0win
Race 10, $99bets, $0win


Total......Net up $75,50.....good start to day and liked 6 of the winners but could cash many tickets...

Good Luck !!

Saratoga August 15 - The Locks

Saratoga races on Mondays where as usually Belmont and other fall/spring meets will be dark.   Adding to suggestions for attending Saratoga....as mentioned getting up the night before is important because you do want to be at the track in morning.   The morning you can see the real hard work of the track workers and the horses themselves.  Grab a coffee and  you have the choice of watching works at the main track or across Union Avenue at the Oklahoma training track.   Watch horses work-out...bring your stop watch and you may be surprised the times you track may not match what the clockers publish....take that as some inside information for when that horse runs again. Watch young horses get schooled at the gate.  


This week after watching the workouts...you could have head over to the Fasig - Tipton facility and preview some of the horses going through the auction ring.   Many people think that this is off-limits to the general population but its not.   Just act like you know what you are doing...go to the office pick up a catalog and pore over it like you know what sires go with what mares.  You should try to have some understanding of what sires are good and what dam-sires are good.  Then you can go over to a barn and ask the young sales company staff to pull a horse out of the barn for your closer inspection...just ask by the #.....  once out feign to jot down some notes about the horses confirmation (body, leg structure).  Make sure you look from the front and ask the sales staff to walk the horse for you......  recently we inspected horse flesh each that went through the ring for $200k+  - didn't really intend on buying but did want to see what these sires' yearlings looked like for future reference.   My brother and I at one of the first auction previews we went to.....Keeneland November of breeding stock...pulled, Ruby Slippers, a multi-million dollar mare out of the barn to look at...it was a bit naive for us to do but funny looking back at it.


As to today's races --- only picking a few ideas here...


1st  Wise Stop - will be the speed...question will be whether will be pressed on the lead - if not may win at 12-1.
2nd Grimmer - race after layoff could merely be a workout for this....at 12-1 may be able to match these so-so horses.
3rd Golden Weekend 4-1 only one out of the money start in 2011.
4th Miss Vindictive 10-1 and Poppy's Day have good 2011 in the $$ %.
5th Lets try to beat the 8/5 chalk with Devilish Silver at 6-1 and Dubai's Connection 6-1, DC has shown that wants to win by going 3 wins in 6 tries in 2011 but may have been hard used by Wesley Ward and Margolis is just trying to get the horse back to form.
6th Jack's Work at 7-2 will come off pace which may be the play as there are many that want the lead and pace will be pressured.  at 5.5f will JW be able to make up enough ground?
7th Font at 12-1 looks to improve from last outing at Saratoga, Northern Coast has 3 wins in 4 starts including same distance, same course within last 2 weeks
8th The Saratoga Special Grade 2 for 2yos....Stat is the chalk for Pletcher at 7/5...at 5-1 I like Union Rags who has been working lights out for this one.


Good Luck!!

Saratoga August 13th - The Locks

After coming off a tough 2 days handicapping, the best thing about horseracing is that there is another day to bet.   


Coming to the Spa at Saratoga is a great day and although August packs in alot of other things that you'd like to do, Saratoga should be on everyone's calendar.   Suggestion is to get up the night before.....I made a bit of a tactical error last weekend...I took a train up to Albany...which is very easy and the views of the Hudson River Valley from the train are absolutely beautiful at dusk and this was not a mistake at all.  My mistake was in staying in downtown Albany and then looking for a place to get something to eat at around 10:30 at night.  I saw a "Jillians" which to me meant a good sports bar where I could set myself up at the bar with the next day's racing form to handicap and also watch some baseball with a plate of boneless (can't eat anything on a bone) chicken wings and a nice cold beer.  


My plan was quickly disrupted as I had to weave my way through some tussle that was going on outside the bar to faced with a young bouncer who actually made me produce some ID.  Once inside I realized that this Jillians is much different than the ones I've seen in places like Charlotte NC or watched the US vs Algeria World Cup match in SF -- it was something of a club...not like a "can I provide you a jacket and tie, sir" club but a "dzzzzt dzzzzt dzzzzt" club - complete with a calvacade of the biggest collection of meatheads I've seen since days at the Oak Beach Inn.  It was like the cast and crew of Jersey Shore had been dropped into the Capital district but given extra doses of 'roids and a mountain of blow.   I actually feared for my life as I tried to make my way to the bar past a phalanx of these losers and actually got a stare down as I dared to order a beer at the bar.   I slugged down the beer fast and made a hasty exit.    Ugh!  Other local places that I thought I could grab some quick pub food were much of the same.  So I retreated back to my hotel which didn't have room service to offer after midnight...was able to handicap some more as I had difficulty sleeping.   Not to sound like a snob but with my frequent travel for work - I am not used to staying at hotels that are less than 5 stars and the Capital City Marriott/Radisson/Doubletree/Whatever was 2 stars short of my usual comfort zone.   But....besides this tactical error it is good to get up the night before because you do want to start your day at Saratoga early.    Will fill in more on what you plan to do at the Spa before/during and after the races in subsequent posts....but lets get to today's card.....a challenging card that features 6!!! maiden races.


1st race....#1 Monastir at 7/2 won at this distance and course last year vs tougher competition, #5 Millennium Jet 10-1, when going 1m or 1 1/16m on turf this year has 4 in the $$ starts against similar.  


2nd race...MSW for NYS bred 2yos...#1 Little Dale 7-2 comes back for Big Dale Romans to take next step after a place debut, #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1, also looks to step up after runner-up debut.  #7 Jaw Crusher, 5-1, has good works for debut but for trainer that doesn't debut well.


3rd race...short field not much value to be had....#1 at 2-1 Wall Dance and #3 at 7-2 Gallant Fields have just as much chance as winning as chalk #2, 9/5 Quality Counsel.


4th race...Maiden Claiming, have 7 of 9 horses that were no closer than 6 lengths from winner in last race, the other 2 are #1 6-1 Lemon Ghost racing for the Foster Grant Kid (DWLukas) and #2 4-1 Mr Popps --- can't see to where else put my money.


5th race...#8 Simbamangu 6-1, was 7th in last race, which was on turf at Saratoga but was only 2+ lengths off of win.  #6 Imaging at 3-1, looks like an obvious choice from Shug's barn, #1 Suprise Strike at 12-1 could pick up a piece.


6th race...#1 Superstructure, 5-1, good works from a good debut barn which is a good combo, #4, How Do I Win, 3-1, Pletcher's charge had a debut 3rd wants to move on from there.  #7 Burned Bridges, 8-1, Bernadini colt has good works for Kiaran who usually doesn't tighten the screws on 1sters.


7th race....#10 Dullan 6-1, Romans does well with first timers on turf and this horse has luxury of 2 starts already #9 Actuarial, has turf pedigree to win in future on the green but is the colt ready today? #4 Our Midnight Run at 6-1, hmmmm..


8th race...#2 Karakorum Legend, 8-1 has success on course as well at distance, #7 Screenplay, 9/2, has recent success and good success at distance.  #6 Unaccountable, 4-1, looks to make it 4 in a row.


9th race...#3 Power Blast, 5/2, Linda Rice is the queen of turf sprints, #9 Isntlovegrand, 12-1 showed can win at distance/course recently, #8 Out of Your Mind at 30-1 could be a good flyer since had trouble in last and won turf sprint at Belmont recently.


10th race...G1, Sword Dancer, 1 1/2m on turf....Can #3 Rahy's Attorney at 8-1 steal it on front end..#8 Winchester, 5/2 is horse to beat because not sure Teak's North away from Monmouth is worth it at 3-1


11th race.....not very good horses that at this late hour are hard to differentiate...think may go all over all and hope some longshots hit the exacta.




Now for the Locks:


Race 1....  $6 W #5, $3 PL #5, $3 WP #1,  $1 DD #1, #5 with #1, #3, #7.... Bets = $21
Race 2....  $7 W #1, $1 all/#1, $1 ex #1,#3,#7 ....Bets = $20
Race 3....  $3 W #3, $1 DD #1, #2, #3 with #1, #2... Bets = $9
Race 4...   $1 exacta #1, #2 over all.   $1 exacta all over #1, #2  Bets = $32
Race 5...   $1 DD #8, #6, #1 with #1, #4, #7  $6 WP #8,  $3 WP #6... Bets = $27
Race 6...   $ 1 exacta #1 with all, $1 exacta all with #1  Bets = $16
Race 7...   $ 1 exacta #10, #9, #4, $1 trifecta #10,#9,#4 Bets = $12
Race 8...   $ 10 win #7, $5 win #2, $1 exacta #7, #2, #6  $1 DD #7, #2, #6 with #3, #9, #8. Bets = $30
Race 9...  $ 5 WP #8, $10 W #3...$1 DD #3, #9, #8 with #3, #8 .Bets = $26
Race 10...$ 10 W #3, $5 WP #8
Race 11... conditional bet....if up or less than $40 down, lets walk away....if more lets play some roulette $1 exacta all over all... $121 bet...


Good Luck!!!


Epilogue


Hit a couple of exactas and a daily double and a couple of winners...on $187 of bets returned $189+ of bets..... 


Now if we made the Race 11 all over all bet.... it paid box cars!!!... $541 for a $1 exacta where we would have made $121 bet for a net of $420!!!

Saratoga August 12th - The Locks

We continue to handicap the Spa even after a humbling day at the track on Thursday...humbling --kind of like if I was given my own  credit downgrade.  But as the saying goes "you have to get back up on that horse"


1st race....Successful Score(5/2), 3 place finishes in 5 tries in 2011, Power King(3/1), success at lower levels


2nd race...Almoradi(7/2), an Irish bred horse, 4 of 6 in the $$ finishes in 2011, City Sneakers(5/1) can win it off the front end, The Vin Man(6/1), outlasted City Sneakers recently.


3rd race...McCarren Park(4/1), comes in from barn that can win at 1st asking, Hard Mystery(2/1), OK works, OK 1st time trainer %


4th race...Senora Dubai(3/1), trouble in each of 3 tries, Stray Bullet(4/1), 9th time could be the charm(?),  switch back to dirt may help.


5th race....Floating Alone(6/1), Starsihoutte (4/1), Ms Stileto (5/2) one of these will win.


6th race...Rothko, 2nd race off layoff, Deed It Is, will need better start but could be in mix at end.


7th race...Humble and Hungry(5-1), in $$ in all except BC, Crimson China(7/2), hopes to rebound from Va Derby....8/5 favorite is beatable as may get into pace contest.


8th race...Coronation Day (7/2)...can come off pace...already 3 or 4 will prompt pace, at 15-1 willing to give System Restore a try despite being a madien on turf.


9th race...Another Please, Hoopskirt, English Ivy are the obvious choices...

Saratoga August 11th - The Locks

8/11/11 Saratoga...


1st...2 1/16 mile over the jumps... 
Lonesome Nun, good form, Upper Gulch, recent win vs similar.


2nd...1 1/8m CL20k, 
Awesome Review, came off pace to win at CD, Cinder Cone, should win if doesn't get too much pressure on the front end.


3rd...7f, 3yoF
Not much value here. Sharp Tongue Lady & Henny's Hurricane are the Locks.


4th...6f, OptCl, Hillswick, having good year, Stormin Bud, 6wins at dist, Radiohead is the class of the field but may leave you high+dry.


5th...1 1/16 turf, Madien 2yoF
Bellamy Roadster will be the chalk, may try Langsyne or Bye Love You to beat her.


6th...1mile MdCl, 
a bunch of losers, the average beaten length in last race is 15+ lengths, give love to Casanova Giant and Forty Tears.


7th...5.5f, Stks,3yoF, 
chalk Funny Sunny is beatable..Doing Great + Ms Cruisen' + Don't Be Shy I'll Buy could hit the winner's circle.


8th...1m turf, stks(NY), 3yo, 
Hessionite most obvious choice, Freud's Honor +Darrin's Dilemma could contend.


9th...1 1/16 MdCl 2yo 
Speightcity, Chanttoomuch, Golden Noble in that order.


10th...1mile turf, Claimer, 
Leadwithyourchin, I like this horse the most, Midnite Silver, has G1 experience


The Locks
1st..$5 WP #3..
$2Daily Double #3,#8 & #4,#2, 
$1 Pick 3, #3,#8 & #4,#2, & #1,#3


2nd $5 WP #4


3rd  $5 WP #3




4th $6 W #2
$3 Pl #2
$3 Ex #1,2 
$1 Daily Double #1,#2 & #7, #1, #6


5th...$5 WP #7


6th...$1 ex #10, #3 over all
$1 GS 4,10,​&1,2,5​&2,5,7​&1,7,9


7th....$8 W #1
$1 ex all over #1,
$.50 Pick 4, #1,#2,#5 & #2,#5,#7 & #1, #7, #9 & #6,#10




8th...$10 W 7..
$5 PL 7..
$1 ex 2,5,7




9th..$5 WP #1,
$1ex #1,7,9 


10th..$8 W #10,
$1ex all over 10


Epilogue....


Bets  -$26 -$10 -$10 - $21 - $10 - $52 - $18 - $21 +$24.5 + $6.50 + $8.50 - $16 - $16 = -$177.50


Ugh!!!  Ugh!!! Only cashed ticket on one race and that was on the chalk.....named winners in only 3 of the 10 races.  Humbling day at the races....

Saratoga August 10th The Locks are on Twitter

Again,  arguably, the best race meeting in the world continues at the Spa.    Today's races aren't exactly world class but do have a number of G1 runners that make up the field in some of the lowest class races of the whole meet.


Saratoga, Wed. 8/10..
1st Race, 5.5f turf,NYS bred, Opt Claiming.
Compliance Officer in the only legit pace in the field, Silver Timber, is a 2x BCTurf Sprinter


2nd Race...2yo Maiden Claimers
Mayville, 2nd race, who is sired by Straight Man, a son of Saint Ballado, I remember pulling him out of his stall to take a look at that horse as a yearling...Can She Run comes in with good works...I'd Lie, has run twice already and has excuses in both.


3rd Race.6F, 15k claiming...
Ugh! This is the bottom of barrel of Saratoga racing...
I will go with at 20-1 Karakorum Budman... isn't much worse than the others....


4th race, MSW, 2yo 5.5f.
Kimmel's Vexor had trouble in debut looks to improve, Pletcher has beautifully bred, Raconteur.


5th race, today's stakes race, 1.5m turf F&M,
Senada comes in with best form but @ shorter distances, Gold D' Oro, will stay in the mix on the lead through the race.


6th race, 6f 20k claimers.
Major Molly, 8-1 Finger Lake shipper will prompt pace, 4-1 Need An Angel should prevail.


7th Race 1m turf, claimers.
Ahgogo was pushed wide in last, Virging on Stardom, is 5 of 9 in the money. Patent Pending Tom,15-1, good form but ice cold trainer


8th Race 7f Claiming 3yo. 
Not much value here so may go light on betting.
Goodtimehadbyalll and Dawly are the plays.


9th Race 13/16 turf. OptCl 3yo+, 
Joshua Reynolds, Ducduc, Close Aly, Colonialism ranked in highest (8-1) to lowest odds (3-1) can all win


10th Race 1mile turf, MSW, 3yo+ NYS, 
if Obviously Tuesday and Turn Up the Music can walk on the lead they will be the exacta



The JCC Locks are:
1. $8 win #1, $4 place #1, 
$1 ex box #1,#5. 
$1 Daily Double #1,#5 & #3,#2,#7


2. $10 win #3, 
$ 1 exacta all over #3,
$1 exacta #3,#2,#7.


3. $5 win,place #3


4. $8 win,place #2, 
$4 win,place #7,  
$2 Daily Double  #2,#7 & #5, #10., 
$1 Pick 3, #2,#7 & #5,#10 & #3,#5


5. $8 win #5
$1 exacta all over #5.   
$2 win place, #10.


6. $8 win/place #3.   
$2 win/place #5.


7. $8 win #6
$1 exacta all over # 6
$1 exacta #6, #4, #10.


8. $5 win/place #2


9. $1 exacta #2,#5,#7,#8.  
$6 win/place #8.
$3 win/place #7


10. $4 win, place #4
$2 win, place #6


Epilogue
A good day over all but still net down but named winners in 7 or 10 races and if Senada won rather than lost by a closing neck would have definitely been in the black.


$188 of Bets, $138 of Wins, Net -$50.

1st..

Compliance Officer - scratched 

Silver Timber wins

2nd

Mayville - 3rd

Can She Run - scratched

I'd Lie - wins

3rd

Karakorum Budman - 6th

4th

Vexor wins

Raconteur 5th

5th 

Senada - 2nd

Gold D' Oro - 7th

6th

Major Molly scratched

Need An Angel wins

7th 

Ahgogo - 4th

Virging on Stardom - 6th

Patent Pending Tom - 9th

8th 

Goodtimehadbyall - 3rd

Dawly wins

9th

Joshua Reynolds - 4th

Ducduc - 5th

Close Aly - 3rd 

Colonialism wins

10th

Obviously Tuesday wins

Turn Up the Music 3rd

Saratoga 8/5/2011: The Locks

Saratoga, Friday August 5th.    Heading to the Spa today!  Weird card to bet....3 - 2yo races, 2 restricted stakes races.   Haven't been to the track at Saratoga in a couple of years so really looking forward to the day.  


Lets look at the Locks.


1st Race, 6f, Allowance/Optional Claiming 3yo+ NYS-breds.
I see a speed duel between the favorite Wise Stop and The Zipster pushed along by Game Token, Too Tough Pete, and Jackson N Humboldt.   So will take stand against the favorite and look to Dahlgren Chapel coming off pace to take a piece if not the pie.   DC threw in 3 clunkers (but one of them in the G3 Tom Fool) in a row but regained some form in last.   There is a sentimental factor on Dahlgren Chapel as its the name of the chapel that sits in the quad behind the Healy Building at Georgetown.   Looking for Jackson N Humboldt to make the exacta as it hasn't failed to do so in each of its 5 starts.  Owned by Brooklyn Boyz Stables so would like to see the horse win so I can see in the winners circle the collection of Joey Baggadonuts that are connected with the gelding.


Lets go $10 win DC, $1 saver exacta
$5 exacta DC + JNH
$4 WP JNH


2nd Race, 5.5f, Madien Claiming ($150k Claim!!!), 2yoF
I admittedly don't have a proven strategy on 2yo madien races except not betting on trainers that have a low 1st Start % and looking at workouts.
I am looking at three horses, Singlet, Heather's Feather and Tiara.
Singlet bought in April at OBS April so had to have been trained up to the sale and since with Dutrow has been training well at Delaware.   Heather's Feather trained by Todd Pletcher who goes about 22% winners on 1st starts and comes in with a bunch of works including real solid gate works.  Tiara has been training well for Dale Romans.
With each of these going off at low odds 5-1, 7-2, 4-1 can't bet on all 3 and expect any return so doing a bit of an experiment on betting so lets go $10 win on the 5-1, Singlet.  $5 place on HF and $5 show (yes, a show bet!) on Tiara.  Then $1 exacta box on all three.....experimenting here


3rd Race, 1 1/8m, The Madame Jumel Stakes 3yo+F+M that have not won a graded stakes in 2010 or 2011. 


Looking at 3 horses that have been out of the money a total 2 times in their collective careers. Arena Elvira races for Mott and will be stretching out from running last 5 races at a mile or less, but does have a close 2nd at 1 1/8m.  Bubble Gum has raced for Stronach Stables up across the border where they riot over power play goals...only race out of money was on off track and comes in off a 2nd in a listed stakes going 1 1/8th mile.  Sweet N Sour Nina is having a solid 2011 including her last which was a 3rd in the graded Obeah Stakes behind winnner, leading race mare, Havre de Grace.


Again the Locks is looking at horses with odds of 3-1, 5-1, 7-2 respectively.  Going with Bubble Gum to move on from its solid 2011 debut to take the race.    Let me continue my experiment with $10 win BG, $5 place Sweet N Sour Nina, $5 show Arena Elvira and $1 exacta box on all three.    I do reserve right if my 2nd race is disasterous to change up the strategy.


4th race, MSW, 5.5f turf, 2yoF


Assategue's trainer Michael Matz doesn't usually tighten the screws on his 1st timers but at 10-1 horse had a bullet work is worth to keep eye on.  Inny Minnie $240k purchase solid works and Margolis winning at a 23% clip in 2011. Coral Glide races for Pletcher who has been getting alot out of the fillie in the mornings.


Inny Minny $10 win $1 saver exacta....Assateague $5 WP....$1 exacta all three.


5th race, Claiming $35k, 1 1/6m turf, 3yo+ F&M,
$5 win/place on 30-1 JC's Queen (like the name) but also actually has decent last 2 race Beyers compared to field.  $10 win Witch's Orchard, $1 exacta saver.


6th race, Madien Claiming $20k, 3yo+, NYS bred
La Festa  E Domani is a 50-1 horse that has lost by a total of 180 lengths but may actually have enough speed to win or at least place.  


7th race, The Johns Call, 3yo+, 1 5/8m!! Turf, 


Sangas won 4 out of 5 in Deutschland before racing at in the G3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago ran 7th in race but only 31/4 lengths behind an race line shows was held up between horses so figure to improve at extra distance and a race under belt in the US.
Memorial Maniac at 30-1 and the only horse in the field to win at distance.
Simmard solid career and this race fits nicely for the horse.
Sangas $10 win $1 exacta saver
MM $4 WP
$1 exacta 6,7,8.


8th race, Allowance, 1/16m inner turf, 3yo+ NYS bred
Gamblin Fever, Seattle Mission, Alstom look to be the Locks


9th race, 2yo NYSbred 5.5 f turf.
Adriatic Spirit, Adirondack Dancer, Skorton are the Locks in this one.




Good Luck


---------------
Epilogue


Race 1....
Dahlgren Chapel wins..$36.50 win less $34 bets = $2.50 win


Race 2
Singlet wins....$70 win less $26 bets = $44 win.


Race 3
Arena Elvira wins $6.75 win less $26 bets = $19.25 loss.


Race 4
Inny Minny 2nd.... $44.50 win less $35 bets = $9.50 win.


Race 5
$0 win less $29 bets = $29 loss


Race 7
Sangas wins....$69 win $33 bet = $36 win


Race 8
Seattle Mission 2nd
Race 9
Adriatic Spirit 3rd.