2026 Kentucky Derby Locks

2026 Kentucky Derby Locks

 

The Locks is looking to improve on performance this year.  Overall, the Locks have selected the actual winner of the Derby in only 3 of the last 18 (16.67%) with an ROI of -60.1% - not good at all but better than using a dart board of selecting a winner (5.22%). Although, hitting those that have hit the board has been a bit more successful, in fact, the Locks have had 12 out of 18 in-the-money finishes.  Accordingly, if you have made $10 WPS (“across the board”) bets over the years your ROI is a decent +30.70% all for 36 minutes of work.

Past Locks:

2025: Luxor Café – placed 12^th – odds: 8.24-1

2024: Forever Young – 3rd – 7.03 -1

2023: Tapit Trice – 7th – 4.53-1

2022: Tiz the Bomb – 9th –  31.00-1

2021: Essential Quality – 3rd *– 2.90-1

2020: Tiz the Law –2nd --  .70-1

2019: Tacitus – 3rd – 5.80-1

2018: Audible – 3rd – 7.00-1

2017: Always Dreaming –  1st – 4.70-1

2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1

2015: Firing Line --  2nd – 9.50-1

2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1

2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1

2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1

2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1

2010: Ice Box– 2nd  – 11.70 -1

2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1

2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1

The Locks is going to continue with the formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.

Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.

Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.

Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books

Winners

Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Before 2026, there was only Giacamo and Rich Strike that had come in with only 1 win and won the Derby but those 2 unlikely winners rewarded those that took the gamble on them 50-1 and 81-1 payouts, respectively.  Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 18-1.  Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.

Runners

As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks has a lot of faith on the premise that "pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young from a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess Snowballs, Twizzlers, Utz Party Mix and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race finishes, is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.

We have seen seismic shifts in how the Derby has been run and won.  From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.  During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively.  Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call. 

In the 8 years between 2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.   The 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses finishing first by those wiring the field.  It also hasn’t been due to slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong and 8 furlong splits have averaged 46 2/5, 1:11 1/5, 1:35.72, respectively. In 2022 with no Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from more than 17 lengths back and in 2023, similarly, we found Mage win after being more than 13 lengths off the pace and last year, Sovereignty won coming from as far back as 17^th in the field. Is the shift back to those that come off pace real OR those that may be on or near lead will prevail?  The Locks will be looking at a horse coming not too far off pace similar to Mystik Dan in 2024– the following are Brisnet P (Presser) types: Commandment, Incredibolt, Silent Tactic, The Puma, Further Ado.

Although in looking to fill your exotics since 2010:

-          2nd place horses have been (on average) ½  mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8 lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths off the lead.

-          3rd place horses:   ½  mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.

Armed with those facts – will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the winner and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.

Conformers

The Locks enjoys history and this year will be one for the history books. Any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University.  When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class. 

The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.  Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to be satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby (which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.

Since 1894-95, the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs have iconically adorned the grandstand like 2 candles on a birthday cake.  The little known history tid-bit is that the Twin Spires were designed by 24-year-old named Joseph D. Baldez who is thought to be inspired to add the ornamental spires from a building that his architecture firm designed several years prior, the then called Central Kentucky Lunatic Asylum.

In 1925, Bill Corum, a sports writer who covered the baseball NY Giants as well as boxing and the Kentucky Derby was the first to coin the term the “Run for the Roses”.   Corum actually became president of Churchill Downs for 8 years later in his career.

The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 151 of data already accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when wagering:

Last-race-Locks Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 30 years have been quite telling-- only 4 horses with sub-100 last-race LSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb and Sovereignty both closers that came out of the Florida Derby were the others.  There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen Kentucky Derby winners in last 20 years had last race LSI of 105+.  Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs include:  Renegade, Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Fulleffort.

In the same 30 year period, only Mine that Bird and Rich Strike had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in at least in one of their last 2 races – The Puma, Pavlovian, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Emerging Markets, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado.

Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 11 out of the last 22 and 7 out of the last 15 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them.  In the 2026 Kentucky Derby, Renegade, Pavlovian, Golden Tempo, and Wonder Dean are all homebreds.

Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very successful with a record of 10 wins out of 204 starters (<5.00%).  Intrepido, Incredibolt, and Emerging Market are looking to change that trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a 11.5% clip.  Albus and Wonder Dean are hoping for some luck in its name.

Wonder Dean (Japan) and Pavlovian (California) are the only non-Kentucky bred Derby starters.  The only other Japanese bred starters were Forever Young finished 3rd in 2024, TO Password 5th in 2024, Master Fencer in 2019 and Derma Sotogake in 2023 who both finished a respectable 6th and Mandarin Hero (2023) & Crown Pride (2022) and Admire Daytona (2025) who finished 12^th,13th, and 19^th respectively. There have been 4 California-bred winners of the Kentucky Derby, the last one being California Chrome in 2014.

Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Fair Grounds (Golden Tempo), Kentucky Downs (Fulleffort) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby winner to win its maiden on foreign soil – Wonder Dean, Danon Bourbon, Six Speed are attempting to be other foreign trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has been only 2 Kentucky Derby winners since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden at Churchill Downs –Commandment, Incredibolt, broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.

Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or second start including 21 out of the last 25 Derby winners.  These entries took longer to break their maidens: Further Ado, Fulleffort, The Puma, Albus.

9 out of the last 15 Derby winners have come into the race off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, So Happy, Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Albus, Incredibolt, Wonder Dean and Danon Bourbon.

In 2019, the streak of favorites winning the Derby ended after a run of 6 favorites winning which was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history.  This comes after a period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we are on a streak of 6 non-favorites winning the Derby.

Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby, Chip Honcho is the only horse in the 2026 field that had a true clunker in their last race.

Since 2004, there have been 58 horses that have run in the Derby that had a prep race in at least one of these NY-based races – the Wood Memorial, the Gotham or the Withers.  Of those 58, only Revolutionary in third in 2013 hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.   Albus, Right to Party, and Ottinho all have run in at least one of those races.

Since 1979, only 2 Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012, Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby mount. Hector Berrios (Intrepido), Christian Torres (Silent Tactic), Juan Hernandez (Potente), Edwin Maldonado (Pavlovian), Christopher Elliot (Right To Party), Jamie Torres (Incredibolt), Astuya Nishimura (Danon Bourbon) are all Derby rookies this year.  Worthy to note that Christopher Elliot is Stewart Elliot’s son and would certainly be the first father-son Derby winning rookie jockey duo.

Now for the horse-by-horse Locks’ profiles:

 

1 Renegade 4-1

Owner: Robert & Lawana Low/Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd J. Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz

Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) – Spice is Nice (Curlin)

Record: 5: 2-2-1

LSI: 106-97-95

Renegade is an unlikely partnership of Robert and Lawana Low who hail from Urbana, Missouri population 387 and Mike Repole - the true King of Queens. The Lows made their money from shipping and logistics while Repole has famously made billions from creating and selling brands such as: Pirate’s Booty, Vitaminwater, Smartwater, BodyArmor and NoBull.  Despite fact that Repole has invested tens of millions into horse racing - his purchases has mostly been in the $150k to $350k range and has had success in the price range but Repole saw something in Renegade at the Keeneland September Yearling sale.  The hammer dropped at $975,000 at the auction and then Repole made a deal allowing Low to buy back into the colt that they bred and sold.

Renegade tossing his first race at Saratoga has done nothing wrong at the track including the very impressive Arkansas Derby.  Renegade’s raw come-home (last furlong of a 9 furlong race) was sub-12s (11.84s) which is a true outlier.  Renegade’s ability to hold up speed in late stages is also shown by firing off 3 triple digit Brisnet Late Pace speed figures.   Renegade has top connections in Pletcher and Irad albeit Pletcher is 2 for 65 in this race and Irad has yet to finish in the money in the Derby in 9 tries. Some things to consider before jumping on the Renegade band wagon: Renegade’s raw time in the Arkansas Derby doesn’t hold up against the extrapolated raw time of the older horses run earlier in the day at Oaklawn Park. No horse has come out of the 1 hole and won the Derby since Ferdinand did it in 1986 (historical reference – Spud Webb wins the NBA dunk contest). Renegade’s overall speed figures are a half-a-notch below competitors, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado and Emerging Market.  Renegade the horse may be similar to Renegade, the Classic Rock anthem by Styx which was listed as #95 in the list of the Greatest 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time,  one of the best but not quite the top.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

2 Albus 30 -1

Owner: Pin Oak Stud LLC

Trainer: Riley Mott

Jockey: Manny Franco

Pedigree: Yaupon (Uncle Mo) – Adream (Bernadini)

Record: 4: 2-0-1

LSI: 97-100-95

Albus is the 2^nd Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott entry and despite winning the Wood Memorial Stakes is the B team to A Team horse Incredibolt.   After 66 years of being run at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial Stakes will move to the re-developed Belmont Park in 2027. The new Belmont Park will be a place that people will be encouraged to go to and not only for the Belmont Stakes.  Aqueduct will be mercifully shuttered at the end of June 2026 after 131 years of operation – the range of descriptions of Aqueduct range from “gritty” to “a den in disrepair” and according to Kuvacz1988’s 2 star review on TripAdvisor “The place is a dump. The building is old and rundown.  Bathrooms are dirty. The track is difficult to get to and parking is a problem.”  After reading that would feel bad at giving Albus a 2 Lock rating and won’t – the colt has been progressive and getting better as races get longer – was one of the higher priced yearling out of the sire and has a rising star trainer.  Albus’ chances at winning are compromised by the following facts -  the speed figures are significantly lower than most of the field – the pedigree is unproven at the distance and has a Derby rookie jockey.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

3 Intrepido 50-1

Owner:  Dutch Girl Holdings LLC/Irving Ventures LLC

Trainer: Jeff Mullins

Jockey: Hector Berrios

Pedigree: Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief)- Overly Indulgent by Pleasantly Perfect

Record: 6: 2-0-1

LSI: 91-99-94

Intrepido was one of the last horses to make the Kentucky Derby field after some late defections.  Trainer Jeff Mullins had a 4 year run of sending horses to the Derby between 2002-2005 with Buzzards Bay’s 5^th being the best result.  Part owner Michele Arthur is the Dutch girl of Dutch Girl Holdings and part owner Ruben Islas is Irving Ventures LLC who is a real estate investor as well as screenwriter and director of a Netflix offering.  Both have roots to San Diego and drew their love of horses from going to the races at Del Mar. 

Intrepido does have the positive attribute of having the win in the American Pharaoh Stakes – that race has produced 3 Kentucky Derby winners and the median finish in the Derby of the 38 horses that have run in that prep race is 6^th.  That being said,  Intrepido is facing a bit of a headwind to win the Derby – consider:

-        Weak on Speed figures: Sub-100 LSIs, Sub-100 Brisnet, Sub-90 Beyers.

-        Has not shown its talent on the biggest race days:  4^th and 10 lengths back in the Santa Anita Derby, 5^th and 10 lengths back in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

-        Derby rookie jockey

-        A year where the West Coast horses don’t seem to be on par with East Coast horses.

-        Only 2 documented ridglings have won the Kentucky Derby – Alysheba (1987) and Forward Pass (1968).

Locks will look elsewhere for a winner.

Locks Verdict: 🔒

4 Litmus Test  30-1

Owner: SF Racing LLC/Starlight Racing/Madaket Stables

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Pedigree: Nyquist (Uncle Mo) – Study Hard (Malibu Moon)

Record: 7:2-0-2

LSI: 93-94-112

Bob Baffert gets his 36^th starter, Litmus Test, into the Kentucky Derby due to a late defection. In his previous 35 starters, Baffert has had 6 winners and a median finish of 6^th (no one is really close to that type of results).   Litmus Test is his 2^nd starter since his 3 year ban from running at Churchill Downs after his Medina Spirit won and subsequently stripped of the victory after the colt tested for a banned substance. Last year his Citizen Bull finished 15^th. Whether you like Bob Baffert or whether he is good for the industry is clearly defined like a Litmus Test – its yes or no – no middle ground.  Litmus Test is owned by an ownership group that self-anointed themselves as the Avengers (insert eye-roll emoji here) who shelled out $875,000 for the colt at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale.

As to Litmus Test’s chances in the Derby,  Baffert has walked over much better horses to the Churchill Downs paddock.  Its possible that Litmus Test didn’t take to the Oaklawn Park surface where the colt finished 3^rd – 5 lengths back and 7^th - 12+ lengths back in his only 2 3yo starts. But seems that Litmus Test doesn’t seem to be the same as the colt was as a 2yo when he won the Los Alamitos Futurity.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

5 Right to Party 30-1

Owner: Chester Broman Sr.

Trainer: Kenneth McPeek

Jockey: Christoper Elliot

Pedigree: Constitution (Tapit) – Havin a Party (Emcee)

Record: 4: 1-1-2

LSI: 96-94-95

Longtime leading owner on the NYRA circuit 91 year old Chester Broman Sr. seems to be the last person one would think to name a horse for a Beastie Boys song.   Fight for your Right (to Party) was a 1986 release on the Beastie’s Licensed to Ill album – the one and only album that Rick Rubin produced for the trio.   The connection of Mr. Broman and the Beastie Boys is a mystery possibly nonagenarian Mr. Broman identified with this line from Licensed to Ill’s track No Sleep to Brooklyn:

Like a lemon to a lime a lime to a lemon/ I sip the def ale with all the fly women

There is no mystery on Right To Party’s chances to win the Derby.  The probability is close to nil.   Right to Party has only 1 win, speed figures (LSI, Brisnet, Beyers) are the lowest in the field, and a Derby rookie jockey.  As a deep closer, there is a very outside chance that may hit the board.

Locks Verdict: 🔒

6 Commandment 6-1

Owner: Wathnan Racing

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Luis Saez

Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) – Sippican Harbor (Orb)

Record: 5:4-0-0

LSI: 104-106-100

Commandment’s owner is Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a Qatari emir.  Sheikh Tamim’s Wathnan Racing has only been in operation since 2022 and only campaigning horses outside of Qatar since 2023 and Commandment is their first Derby runner.  Sheikh Tamim since getting his taste in horse racing has now put tremendous amount of money into the industry.  Although Sheikh Tamim has owned Commandment at the start of his racing career, many Wathnan runners are those that had successful starts for other owners and then Shiekh Tamim has opened up the check book to acquire proven talent.   Commandment was bought at auction for $500,000 from breeder Lee Pokoik, a long time owner on the NYRA circuit. Commanment is out of Sippican Harbor, winner of the G1 Spinaway Stakes and the best filly that Pokoik owned. Pokoik as a breeder sells his mares’ colts and keeps the fillies but has said he was very tempted to keep Commandment as he was a magnificent foal.  Lee Pokoik who made his money on New York real estate was actually the Locks’ first landlord in Manhattan.  Luckily, we got our rent checks in on-time as a quick search of Lee Pokoik’s name on the internet shows he is quite litigious with litany of court cases popping up attached to his name. He also made news for threatening litigation on being delivered free newspapers.  In a profile of Mr. Pokoik on his 2010 run for Longboat Key town committee – a supporter of his said “Litigious” should be his middle name.

There is no litigation needed on proving that the Pokoik-bred Commandment is a talented horse – consider this:

-        4 wins in a row – including victories over tough Derby competitors Chief Wallabee and The Puma

-        Great speed figures:  triple digit Brisnet, triple digit Brisnet late pace figures, triple-digit LSIs, 2 triple digit Beyer figures (only horse in field that can brag about that).

-        Last-race closing 1/8^th time that is .38 seconds faster than the average Kentucky Derby winner’s last-race come-home time.

-        A presser racing style that suits well for the Kentucky Derby.

Commandment’s past performances looks very similar to a former Kentucky Derby Lock and Winner, Orb who happens also to be Commandment’s broodmare sire (grandfather).

For this, Commandment is the 2026 Kentucky Derby Lock

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒

7 Danon Bourbon 20-1

Owner: Danox Co. Ltd.

Trainer: Ikezoe Manabu

Jockey:  A. Nishimura

Pedigree: Maxfield (Street Sense) – Wild Ridge (Tapit)

Record: 3: 3-0-0

LSI: xx-xx-xx

The rise in Japanese horse racing has been coming for a long time but since 2021 it has become acutely apparent on the biggest stages in the world.   In 2021, Japanese horses, Loves Only You and March Lorraine, won Breeders Cup races. In 2022, Japanese horses swept 4 of the races on the Saudi Cup international racing undercard and then won 5 of the races on the Dubai World Cup international racing undercard.  In 2023, Japanese horses won the Saudi Cup and 2 other undercard races, won the Dubai World Cup and 2 other undercard races, and had the number 1 ranked horse in the world, Equinox. In 2024, Japanese bred and trained, Forever Young was 3^rd in the Derby and the Breeder’s Cup classic but in 2025, Forever Young won the Breeder’s Cup Classic. These results continue to show to the US and the World that Japanese trained horses are some of the best horses in the world.

-        Danon Bourbon is an American bred and one bred for the Kentucky Derby, consider that the sire is Maxfield – a horse that had 5 – 1 mile+ wins at Churchill Downs.

-        The Japanese Netkeiba speed figures for Danon Bourbon coming into the race includes a last race figure of 105.  Japan’s G1 dirt race winners typically win with a 105 speed figure. 

-        In past Japanese horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby weren’t necessarily the best dirt 3yos in Japan. As with in 2024 Forever Young who was clearly the highest rated dirt 3yo in Japan – Danon Bourbon also is considered the best Japanese trained 3yo dirt horse.

-        Only horse in field with 3 – 9+ furlong wins – only 5 other Derby contenders have actually raced 2x+ over 9 furlong.  All 3 of Danon Bourbon’s 9+ furlong wins were 3+ length demolitions. 

-        Running style will be pressing the pace.

-        Has 2 impressive wins on muddy track -- the Muddy Track Lock.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

8 So Happy 15-1

Owner: Norman Stables LLC/Saints or Sinners Racing

Trainer: Mark Glatt

Jockey: Mike Smith

Pedigree: Run Happy (Super Saver) – So Cunning (Blame)

Record: 4: 3-0-1

LSI (Locks Speed Index last 3 races, last race first): 101-101-105

Owner Robby Norman is back in the Kentucky Derby.  His Norman Stables ran Coal Battle to an 11^th place finish in last year’s Derby.  If you recall Mr. Norman’s background story, he is a grocery store owner from Alabama who recounted how he got into racing.  “I went through a divorce, something I really didn’t want. We actually had just bought a new home….I went to stay in an apartment in downtown Thomasville by the railroad tracks. I was flipping through channels on TV….I said, ‘You know what? This divorce stuff is negative. I’ve got to do something to get out of this.’ “  From cooking Mac and Cheese on an open flame burner to an owners’ box on the first Saturday of May for a 2^nd time. 

 

In most years, the Santa Anita Derby comes to the Derby at least reasonable odds to win the Derby. Even though So Happy has won 3 out of 4 including the San Vicente Stakes on top of the Santa Anita Derby and has Mike Smith in the saddle -a 2x winner in a record 28 mounts in the Derby – So Happy has been largely dismissed.  The focus goes to the horses pedigree – although the broodmare sire is Blame who can sire horses that can get the Derby distance – the sire is Runhappy – a brilliant sprinter campaigned by James “Mattress Mac” McIngvale.   The Locks is with the consensus on this one – may see So Happy competitive at a mile in future but not a winner at a mile and a quarter.

 Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

 9 The Puma 10-1

Owner: Ogma Investments LLC/JR Ranch/High Step Racing LLC

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Pedigree: Essential Quality (Tapit) – Eve of War (Declaration of War)

Record: 4: 1-2-1

LSI: 104-98-92

The Locks leaves no stone unturned in trying to find a betting angle for the Derby.  Of the recorded names of horses that have run in the Derby, 11 have a name related to a cat/big cat.  Interestingly the distinction between a cat and a big cat (for example, lion, tiger, panther etc) is whether they roar or not.  A puma is actually considered a small cat because it meows not roars.   Of these 11 feline-named runners, 2 have had runner-up finishes and 1 has a show finish which is better than average results. 

The Puma despite being named for a small cat does have big chances of being in the mix.

-        The Puma has the same connections (owner, trainer, jockey) as 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.

-        The Puma is sired by the 2021 Derby Lock and 3^rd place finisher, Essential Quality.

-        Won the Tampa Bay Derby outdueling Further Ado

-        Came back 3 weeks later to just get nosed out by Commandment in the Florida Derby

-        Is a Brisnet P (Presser) rating which should suit well in the Derby.

-        Solid Brisnet Late Pace figures.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

10 Wonder Dean 30-1

Owner: Yamamoto Yoshinari

Trainer: Takayanagi Daisuke

Jockey: R. Sakai

Pedigree:  Dee Majesty (Deep Impact) – Wonder Siang (Wonder Acute)

Record: 6: 2-2-0

LSI: xx-xx-xx

Wonder Dean is looking to be the first Japanese bred and trained horse to win the Kentucky Derby.  Despite a win in the 9.5 furlong UAE Derby and solid performances in Japan, Wonder Dean is considered the weaker of the 2 Japanese trained horses.     Look for a running style that is pressing the pace.  Japanese speed figures are slower than Forever Young had in 2024.  Very similar profile as Admire Daytona in last year’s Derby who finished 19^th and last.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

 11 Incredibolt 20-1

Owner: Pin Oak Stud LLC

Trainer: Riley Mott

Jockey: Jamie Torres

Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) – Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again)

Record: 5: 3-0-0

LSI: 100-75-103

Riley Mott has been a rising star of a trainer since his first winner in 2022 – a filly named Unifying who also became his first stakes winner to having not only 1 but 2 starters at the Kentucky Derby. Incredibolt not only is just a starter in the Derby but a true contender.  Consider this:

-        3 wins including the only horse in field to have 2 wins at Churchill Downs and 1 of only 2 that have a 2-turn win under the Twin Spires.

-        Triple Digit Brisnet and Late Pace Brisnet figure

-        Only horse in field besides Renegade that has a sub-12 last-race come-home time.  Average last-race come-home time for Kentucky Derby winners in last 25 years has been 12.7s.

-        Coming into the race fresh – since 1929 only Authentic in 2020 has had a 49 day break from racing and won the Derby.

-        Put a line through the clunker in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park – some horses just don’t take to the Gulfstream surface.  Incredibolt has already proven twice that the colt likes Churchill Downs dirt track.

Need to have Incredibolt in the mix.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒 🔒🔒

 

12 Chief Wallabee 8-1

Owner: Michael and Kathleen Ball

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey:  Junior Alvarado

Pedigree: Constitution (Tapit) – A La Lucie (Medaglia D’ Oro)

Record: 3:1-1-1

LSI: 103-106-105

Although Chief Wallabee was one of the last of the horses to draw into the Derby field, the Chief trained by 2025 Kentucky Derby (Sovereignty) winning trainer, Bill Mott has a real shot at the garland of roses.  Despite the facts against horses that never started as a 2yo (2 of 75 since 1937) and those that only have 1 win prior to coming to the Derby, Chief Wallabee has shown the colt belongs to be a threat to win.  Speed figures are more than solid (3 triple digit LSIs, 2 triple digit Brisnet, near 2 triple digit Beyers).  Short only by a neck to Commandment from winning the Fountain of Youth (note: Chief Wallabee ran 3 horse lengths further than Commandment).  Short only by a half-a-length to Commandment and the Puma from winning the Florida Derby. Bill Mott noted that Chief Wallabee had a “Sovereignty-like” workout at Churchill Downs ahead of the Derby.   Been some discussion on an equipment change for the colt, Chief Wallabee will add blinkers for the Derby to help the colt keep focus on the race.  The statistics on horses adding blinkers for the Derby aren’t great over last 25 years – average finish is 10^th with best finish being 4^th --- this negative stat is the equivalent when the biggest complaint about your NFL team is that your punter isn’t good. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

13 Silent Tactic 20-1

Owner: John C. Oxley

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Christian Torres

Pedigree: Tacitus (Tapit) – Magical Sign (Gun Runner)

Record: 6: 2-4-0

LSI: 102-99-104

Silent Tactic is owned by John Oxley who made his money in oil and spent his money becoming a 5 goal polo player  (the polo equivalent of being a scratch golfer). Oxley has campaigned 8 horses that have made it to the Derby including Monarchos who won the blanket of roses in 2001. Silent Tactic is similar to other Oxley Derby runners such as Monarchos, Prospective and Enforceable in being horses that like to come well off the pace.  Silent Tactic is sired by 2019 Derby Lock and 3^rd place finisher Tacitus.  6 for 6 in exacta finishes. Issue is that speed figures puts Silent Tactic several lengths behind more likely winners.

Lock’s Verdict:  🔒🔒🔒

14 Potente 20-1

Owner: Speedway Stables Inc.

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: JJ Hernandez

Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) – Sweet Sting (Awesome Again)

Record: 3: 2-1-0

LSI: 98-103-98

Speedway Stables is named after the Houston, Texas street Buffalo Speedway which one of the owners Peter Fluor has his roots.  Fluor has made money both from his family’s company the Fluor Corporation, which was involved in the Manhattan Project, and also from his own energy business. Although his dad had investment in Alleged – a two time L’Arc winner – Peter Fluor did not get into thoroughbred ownership until 2014.  Fluor campaigned Roadster in 2019 who was 4^th favorite but finished 15^th.   Perhaps from their efforts in the Manhattan Project the Fluor Corp. got some Oppenheimer movie residuals as Speedway was able to fork over $2.4 million for Potente at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale.  On the track: unraced at 2, 2 for 3, a triple-digit last-race Brisnet figure. Potente is named after what is considered one of the best Italian restaurants in Houston.   Potente is owned by Houston Astros chairman Jim Crane --- I don’t know about you but I don’t go to Italian restaurants that are owned by those whose heritage doesn’t originate from the Boot.  Potente (the horse) is the Potente (the restaurant) of the Derby field – high priced but without soul. 

Locks Verdict:  🔒🔒🔒

15 Emerging Market 15-1

Owner: Klaravich Stables Inc.

Trainer: Chad C. Brown

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Pedigree: Candy Ride (Ride the Rails) – Wild Empress (Empire Maker)

Record: 2: 2-0-0

LSI: 105-104-xx

Klaravich Stables’ Seth Klarman uses financial terms as the naming convention for his horses.  His other Derby runners included Highly Motivated, Domestic Product and Read the Footnotes but only Practical Joke, one that didn’t fit the theme of his usual names, has finished in the top 5. This colt may emerge as one of the leaders of the division later in the year but Emerging Market has to overcome some damning historic facts to win the Derby.  Since 1937, there have been only 6 Kentucky Derby runners that come into the race with only 2 starts – none have won and average finish has been 11^th.   In looking at the whole history of the race – there has been only 1 winner, Leonatus in 1883 (historic reference:  5 years before Vincent Van Gogh cuts off his ear) that has won the Derby with only 2 races under their belt.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

16 Pavlovian 30-1

Owner: Reddam Racing Inc.

Trainer: Doug O’Neil

Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

Pedigree: Pavel (Creative Cause) – Mandy’s Grace (Bellamy Road)

Record: 10: 2-4-1

LSI: 105-103-97

In last 2 races Pavlovian has shown the Pavlovian response of running hard when hearing the bell and opening of the starting gates.  Trainer Doug O’Neil changed tactics on Pavlovian from racing off the pace to running on or near the pace which has resulted in winning the Sunland Park Derby and a 2^nd by a head in the Louisiana Derby after going on a 6 race losing streak.

Pavlovian similar to fellow California-bred California Chrome in that is hoping to be the only Kentucky Derby winner this century to have 10 starts under belt coming into the Derby.  Pavlovian is owned by 2x Kentucky Derby winning owner, Paul Reddam who also won with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016).  Pavlovian has the least patrician bloodlines of the Derby field – out of a $4,000 sire Pavel and a mare that won 1 claiming race.

Although Pavlovian’s performances has been better with the new early pace running style – it may not be suitable for the Derby.   There will be better horses that will gobble up Pavlovian as they enter the stretch. Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

17 Six Speed 50-1

Owner: Brunetti/Dugan Stables/Black Type Thorougbreds

Trainer: Seemar Bhupat

Jockey: Brian Hernandez

Pedigree: Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) – Browse (Medaglia D’ Oro)

Record: 5: 3-1-1

LSI: xx-xx-xx

Six Speed is an American bred but Dubai based runner who won the UAE 2000 Guineas in impressive fashion but could not hold off Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby.  Despite having a solid Derby pedigree, there is too much to overcome to be able to consider Six Speed to be a factor in the Derby. Consider that there have only been 3 runners that have come in from the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai without winning that race. The last 2x it was in 2022, Summer is Tomorrow finished 20^th and last (also trained by Bhupat Seemar) and in 2019 when Gray Magician finished 19^th and last.  Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

18 Further Ado 6-1

Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: John Velazquez

Pedigree: Gun Runner (Candy Ride) – Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa) 

Record: 5:2-1-1

LSI: 104-97-101

Further Ado is the Punch the Monkey of the Derby field.  Punch the Monkey was abandoned and  ignored before being provided the comfort of an Ikea orange orangutang and then eventually accepted into the troop of monkeys.   Like Punch, Further Ado was ignored after a 5^th place finish on debut at Saratoga and then again losing again at the Spa by over 6 lengths.  Further Ado then found comfort in the form of Keeneland Race Track and won its 3^rd race and win it did indeed by a whopping 20 lengths.   The comfort of Kentucky continued with 2 turn win at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes – albeit significantly less impressive than its maiden win – Further Ado along with Incredibolt are the only 2 Derby runners this year that have a 2 turn win at Churchill Downs.   After the win at Churchill Downs, Further Ado was taken away from Kentucky and sent to Florida where the colt lost to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby.  When Further Ado was brought back to the bosom of Keeneland, again Further Ado flourished with an 11 length win in the Bluegrass Stakes.  This win earned Further Ado the highest speed figures Brisnet and Beyers in the field.   As to divine on how Further Ado will perform in the Kentucky Derby – the Locks feels that Further Ado may miss the nurturing touch of Lexington and not put in the peak performance that Further Ado has shown in its Keeneland wins.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

19 Golden Tempo 30-1

Owner: Phipps Stable/St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Cherie DeVaux

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Pedigree: Curlin (Smart Strike) - Carrumba (Bernadini)

Record: 4: 2-0-2

LSI: 104-92-98

As done last year with the analysis of one contender  –this year the reins of Golden Tempo’s Derby chances have been handed over to AI – let’s see how it does:

Golden Tempo profiles as one of the more intriguing—but ultimately flawed—types heading into the 2026 Kentucky Derby. On paper, he checks several important boxes: he’s well-bred for the distance (by Curlin out of a Bernardini mare), has already shown a strong late kick, and comes from connections that know exactly how to develop a classic-distance horse. His Lecomte Stakes win, where he rallied from the back of the field, highlights real ability and suggests he can pass horses late—something not every Derby contender can do. At the same time, that running style is also his biggest obstacle. Deep closers historically struggle in the Derby because they need a fast pace, clean racing luck, and perfect timing in a crowded 20-horse field. When Golden Tempo stepped up in class in his next prep, he couldn’t quite finish the job, raising concerns about whether his closing punch is strong enough against elite competition.

What makes his profile more interesting is who owns him. Golden Tempo is campaigned by the historic Phipps Stable, part of a racing dynasty that dates back nearly a century and was founded by Gladys Mills Phipps, often called the “First Lady of the Turf.” That legacy has produced generations of top-class horses and major industry influence, including multiple champions and deep involvement in shaping American racing at the highest level. His co-owner, St. Elias Stable, has also tasted Derby success before, meaning this isn’t an inexperienced ownership group—they know exactly what it takes to get a horse to peak on the first Saturday in May, having been part of past Derby-winning partnerships.

Still, when you put it all together, Golden Tempo looks much more like a horse who could run well than win. He has the pedigree and talent to stay the distance and pass tired horses late, but his dependence on race shape and lack of dominance in top preps make him a risky win bet. In a typical Derby scenario, he fits best as a third- or fourth-place finisher in exotics, the kind of horse who can inflate payouts if things break his way—but one that likely needs too many variables to go right to be considered a true “Lock”.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

20 Fulleffort 20-1

Owner: St. Elias Stable/Starlight Racing

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gafflione

Pedigree: Liam’s Map (Unbridled Song) – Callmethesqueeze (Awesome Again)

Record: 7:3-2-1

LSI: 110-106-100

Former President George W. Bush had a famous quote: “There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again”.   That’s my sentiment about Fulleffort.  There are some trappings in this horse’s past performances that in the past the Locks have been enchanted like a siren song only to be dashed on the rocks of lost Kentucky Derby betting tickets.  Consider:

-        Highest last race LSI.

-        Progressive speed figures.

-        3 wins in last 6 races and in the money in the other 3 – losing by only 1 length or less.

-        Blazing Churchill Downs workouts

In 2022, the Derby Lock was Tiz the Bomb who had similar characteristics including coming into the Derby with a win the Jeff Ruby Stakes (nee Jim Beam Stakes) at Turfway Park.   The reality was that Tiz the Bomb was more of a turf horse rather than one to handle the round river sand, clay and silt composition of the Churchill Downs oval.  As with Tiz the Bomb, I do expect Fulleffort to have a better career on the turf in the future and will not factor in the finish of the Derby.

Locks Verdict:  🔒🔒🔒

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Give the following horses further consideration if a muddy/sloppy track: Danon Bourbon

Kentucky Derby Locks

◎ 6 Commandment

○ 12 Chief Wallabee

▲ 11 Incredibolt

△ 7 Danon Bourbon

△ 1 Renegade

△ 18 Further Ado

△ 9 The Puma

 

 

The Locks Bets are;

 

$20 Win #6 = $20

$1 Exacta All over #6  = $19

$10 WPS #6 = $30

$5 WPS #12 = $15

$1 Exacta Box: 6,12,11,7,18,1/6,12,11,7,18,1,9 = $36

$1 Exacta 6,12,11/6,12,11,7,18,1,9= $18

$.50 Trifecta 6,12,11/6,12,11,7,18,1,9/6,12,11,7,18,1,9=.50 3 x 6 x 5 =$45

 

Total $20+$30+$19+$15+$36+$18+$45=$183.

 

 

The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line
☆☆☆☆☆	Commandment	Renegade
☆☆☆☆	Chief Wallabee Incredibolt Danon Bourbon Renegade Further Ado The Puma	Commandment Further Ado Chief Wallabee The Puma
☆☆☆	Emerging Market Golden Tempo Fulleffort So Happy Wonder Dean Silent Tactic Albus Pavlovian Potente	Emerging Market So Happy Danon Bourbon Incredibolt Silent Tactic Potente Fulleffort
☆☆	Litmus Test Six Speed	Albus Litmus Test Wonder Dean Pavlovian Golden Tempo Right to Party
☆	Intrepido Right to Party	Six Speed Intrepido

Kentucky Oaks Locks

◎ 10 Prom Queen

○ 9 Always a Runner

▲ 8 Bottle of Rouge

△ 2 Zany

△ 4 Counting Stars