2026 Kentucky Derby Locks
The
Locks is looking to improve on performance this year. Overall, the Locks have selected the actual
winner of the Derby in only 3 of the last 18 (16.67%) with an ROI of -60.1% -
not good at all but better than using a dart board of selecting a winner
(5.22%). Although, hitting those that have hit the board has been a bit more
successful, in fact, the Locks have had 12 out of 18 in-the-money finishes.
Accordingly, if you have made $10 WPS (“across the board”) bets over the
years your ROI is a decent +30.70% all for 36 minutes of work.
Past Locks:
2025:
Luxor Café – placed 12th – odds: 8.24-1
2024: Forever Young – 3rd – 7.03 -1
2023: Tapit Trice – 7th – 4.53-1
2022: Tiz the Bomb – 9th – 31.00-1
2021: Essential Quality – 3rd *– 2.90-1
2020: Tiz the Law –2nd -- .70-1
2019: Tacitus – 3rd – 5.80-1
2018: Audible – 3rd – 7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1
2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd – 11.70 -1
2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1
The Locks is going to
continue with the formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.
Winners: Horses that
haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run
out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking for
those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for
horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps
is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993,
Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has
been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Before 2026, there was only Giacamo and Rich Strike
that had come in with only 1 win and won the Derby but those 2 unlikely winners
rewarded those that took the gamble on them 50-1 and 81-1 payouts,
respectively. Average odds of all Derby
winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 18-1. Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins
is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.
Runners
As a student of the
late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks has a lot of faith on the premise that
"pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace
handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is
anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young
from a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess
Snowballs, Twizzlers, Utz Party Mix and Cheez Whiz &
Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race
finishes, is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need
to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those
splits.
We have seen seismic
shifts in how the Derby has been run
and won. From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky
Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths,
1mile – 2.1 lengths. During that same
period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been
either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place,
respectively. Using the same data, there
have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less than 2
lengths off the pace after the first call.
In the 8 years between
2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the Baffertization of horse racing)
prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1
length, 1 mile, on or near lead. The
2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses finishing first by those wiring
the field. It also hasn’t been due to
slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong and 8 furlong
splits have averaged 46 2/5, 1:11 1/5, 1:35.72, respectively. In 2022 with no
Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from more than 17 lengths back and in 2023,
similarly, we found Mage win after being more than 13 lengths off the pace and last year, Sovereignty won coming from as far
back as 17th in the field. Is the shift back to those that come off
pace real OR those that may be on or near lead will prevail? The Locks will be looking at a horse coming
not too far off pace similar to Mystik Dan in 2024– the following are Brisnet P (Presser) types:
Commandment, Incredibolt, Silent Tactic, The Puma, Further Ado.
Although in looking to
fill your exotics since 2010:
- 2nd place horses have been (on
average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8
lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths off the lead.
- 3rd place horses: ½
mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.
Armed with those facts
– will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the winner
and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys
history and this year will be one for the history books. Any reader
of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a
semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. When they failed to include
how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew
from the class.
The history of the
Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather
Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the
Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.
Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to be
satisfied
with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he
had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby (which dates
back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French pari-mutuel
betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky, he
established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May 17,
1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
Since 1894-95, the Twin
Spires of Churchill Downs have iconically adorned the grandstand like 2 candles
on a birthday cake. The little known
history tid-bit is that the Twin Spires were designed by 24-year-old named
Joseph D. Baldez who is thought to be inspired to add the ornamental spires
from a building that his architecture firm designed several years prior, the
then called Central Kentucky Lunatic Asylum.
In 1925, Bill Corum, a sports writer who covered the
baseball NY Giants as well as boxing and the Kentucky Derby was the first to
coin the term the “Run for the Roses”. Corum actually became president of Churchill
Downs for 8 years later in his career.
The Locks does like to
look at history when betting the Derby as there is 151 of data already accumulated which can
give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when
wagering:
Last-race-Locks Speed
Index (LSI) figures for the last 30 years have been quite
telling-- only 4 horses with sub-100 last-race LSIs have won and those horses were
Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at
50-1 --- Orb and Sovereignty both closers that came
out of the Florida Derby were the others.
There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded
the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen
Kentucky Derby winners in last 20 years had last race LSI of 105+. Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs include: Renegade, Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Fulleffort.
In the same 30 year period, only Mine that Bird and
Rich Strike had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure
of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the following have
100+ Brisnet figs in at least in one of their last 2 races – The Puma, Pavlovian, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo,
Emerging Markets, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado.
Homebreds have been
quite successful recently with 11 out of the last 22 and 7 out of the last 15 Derby winners being owned by the same
people that bred them. In the 2026 Kentucky Derby, Renegade, Pavlovian, Golden Tempo, and Wonder Dean are all homebreds.
Derby horses names
starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very successful with
a record of 10 wins out of 204 starters (<5.00%). Intrepido, Incredibolt,
and Emerging Market are
looking to change that trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are
more successful winning at a 11.5% clip.
Albus
and Wonder Dean are
hoping for some luck in its name.
Wonder Dean (Japan) and Pavlovian (California) are the only
non-Kentucky bred Derby starters. The
only other Japanese bred starters were Forever Young finished 3rd in 2024, TO
Password 5th in 2024, Master Fencer in 2019 and Derma Sotogake in 2023 who both
finished a respectable 6th and Mandarin Hero (2023) & Crown Pride (2022) and Admire Daytona (2025) who finished 12th,13th,
and 19th respectively.
There have been 4 California-bred winners
of the Kentucky Derby, the last one being California Chrome in 2014.
Since 1914, no Derby
winner has broke its maiden at Fair
Grounds (Golden Tempo),
Kentucky Downs (Fulleffort) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last
Derby winner to win its maiden on foreign soil – Wonder
Dean, Danon Bourbon, Six Speed are attempting to be other foreign
trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has been only 2 Kentucky Derby winners since 1933 where the winner broke their
maiden at Churchill Downs –Commandment,
Incredibolt, broke
their maidens under the Twin Spires.
Two-thirds of Derby
winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or
second start including 21 out of the last 25 Derby winners. These entries took longer to break their
maidens: Further Ado, Fulleffort, The Puma, Albus.
9 out of the last 15 Derby winners have come into the race
off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, So Happy,
Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Albus, Incredibolt, Wonder Dean and Danon Bourbon.
In 2019, the streak of favorites winning the
Derby ended after a run of 6 favorites
winning which
was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history. This comes after a period from 1980-1999 that
the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we are on a streak of 6 non-favorites winning the Derby.
Since 1952, no Derby
winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby, Chip Honcho is the only
horse
in the 2026 field that had a true clunker in their
last race.
Since 2004, there have been 58 horses that have run
in the Derby that had a prep race in at least one of these NY-based races – the
Wood Memorial, the Gotham or the Withers.
Of those 58, only Revolutionary in third in 2013 hit the board in the
Kentucky Derby. Albus, Right to Party,
and Ottinho all have run in at least one of those races.
Since 1979, only 2
Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012,
Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby
mount. Hector Berrios (Intrepido), Christian
Torres (Silent Tactic), Juan Hernandez (Potente), Edwin Maldonado (Pavlovian),
Christopher Elliot (Right To Party), Jamie Torres (Incredibolt), Astuya
Nishimura (Danon Bourbon) are all Derby rookies this year. Worthy to
note that Christopher Elliot is Stewart Elliot’s son and would certainly be the
first father-son Derby winning rookie jockey duo.
Now for the
horse-by-horse Locks’ profiles:
1 Renegade 4-1
Owner: Robert & Lawana
Low/Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd
J. Pletcher
Jockey: Irad
Ortiz
Pedigree: Into
Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) – Spice
is Nice
(Curlin)
Record: 5: 2-2-1
LSI: 106-97-95
Renegade is an unlikely partnership of Robert and Lawana
Low who hail from Urbana, Missouri population 387 and Mike Repole - the true
King of Queens. The Lows made their money from shipping and logistics while
Repole has famously made billions from creating and selling brands such as:
Pirate’s Booty, Vitaminwater, Smartwater, BodyArmor and NoBull. Despite fact that Repole has invested tens of
millions into horse racing - his purchases has mostly been in the $150k to
$350k range and has had success in the price range but Repole saw something in
Renegade at the Keeneland September Yearling sale. The hammer dropped at $975,000 at the auction
and then Repole made a deal allowing Low to buy back into the colt that they bred
and sold.
Renegade tossing his first race at Saratoga has done
nothing wrong at the track including the very impressive Arkansas Derby. Renegade’s raw come-home (last furlong of a 9
furlong race) was sub-12s (11.84s) which is a true outlier. Renegade’s ability to hold up speed in late
stages is also shown by firing off 3 triple digit Brisnet Late Pace speed
figures. Renegade has top connections
in Pletcher and Irad albeit Pletcher is 2 for 65 in this race and Irad has yet
to finish in the money in the Derby in 9 tries. Some things to consider before
jumping on the Renegade band wagon: Renegade’s raw time in the Arkansas Derby
doesn’t hold up against the extrapolated raw time of the older horses run
earlier in the day at Oaklawn Park. No horse has come out of the 1 hole and won
the Derby since Ferdinand did it in 1986 (historical reference – Spud Webb wins
the NBA dunk contest). Renegade’s overall speed figures are a half-a-notch
below competitors, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado and Emerging
Market. Renegade the horse may be similar
to Renegade, the Classic Rock anthem by Styx which was listed as #95 in the
list of the Greatest 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time, one of the best but not quite the top.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
2 Albus 30 -1
Owner: Pin
Oak Stud LLC
Trainer: Riley
Mott
Jockey: Manny Franco
Pedigree: Yaupon
(Uncle Mo) – Adream (Bernadini)
Record: 4: 2-0-1
LSI: 97-100-95
Albus is the 2nd Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott
entry and despite winning the Wood Memorial Stakes is the B team to A Team
horse Incredibolt. After 66 years of
being run at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial Stakes will move to the re-developed
Belmont Park in 2027. The new Belmont Park will be a place that people will be
encouraged to go to and not only for the Belmont Stakes. Aqueduct will be mercifully shuttered at the
end of June 2026 after 131 years of operation – the range of descriptions of
Aqueduct range from “gritty” to “a den in disrepair” and according to
Kuvacz1988’s 2 star review on TripAdvisor “The place is a dump. The building is
old and rundown. Bathrooms are dirty.
The track is difficult to get to and parking is a problem.” After reading that would feel bad at giving
Albus a 2 Lock rating and won’t – the colt has been progressive and getting
better as races get longer – was one of the higher priced yearling out of the
sire and has a rising star trainer.
Albus’ chances at winning are compromised by the following facts - the speed figures are significantly lower
than most of the field – the pedigree is unproven at the distance and has a
Derby rookie jockey.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
3 Intrepido 50-1
Owner: Dutch Girl Holdings LLC/Irving Ventures LLC
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Pedigree: Maximus Mischief (Into
Mischief)- Overly Indulgent by Pleasantly Perfect
Record: 6: 2-0-1
LSI: 91-99-94
Intrepido was one of the last horses to make the
Kentucky Derby field after some late defections. Trainer Jeff Mullins had a 4 year run of
sending horses to the Derby between 2002-2005 with Buzzards Bay’s 5th
being the best result. Part owner
Michele Arthur is the Dutch girl of Dutch Girl Holdings and part owner Ruben
Islas is Irving Ventures LLC who is a real estate investor as well as
screenwriter and director of a Netflix offering. Both have roots to San Diego and drew their
love of horses from going to the races at Del Mar.
Intrepido does have the positive attribute of having
the win in the American Pharaoh Stakes – that race has produced 3 Kentucky
Derby winners and the median finish in the Derby of the 38 horses that have run
in that prep race is 6th.
That being said, Intrepido is
facing a bit of a headwind to win the Derby – consider:
-
Weak on Speed figures: Sub-100 LSIs,
Sub-100 Brisnet, Sub-90 Beyers.
-
Has not shown its talent on the biggest
race days: 4th and 10 lengths
back in the Santa Anita Derby, 5th and 10 lengths back in the
Breeders Cup Juvenile.
-
Derby rookie jockey
-
A year where the West Coast horses don’t
seem to be on par with East Coast horses.
-
Only 2 documented ridglings have won the
Kentucky Derby – Alysheba (1987) and Forward Pass (1968).
Locks will look elsewhere for a winner.
Locks Verdict: 🔒
4 Litmus Test 30-1
Owner: SF Racing LLC/Starlight
Racing/Madaket Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Pedigree: Nyquist (Uncle Mo) – Study Hard (Malibu Moon)
Record: 7:2-0-2
LSI: 93-94-112
Bob Baffert gets his 36th starter, Litmus
Test, into the Kentucky Derby due to a late defection. In his previous 35
starters, Baffert has had 6 winners and a median finish of 6th (no
one is really close to that type of results).
Litmus Test is his 2nd starter since his 3 year ban from
running at Churchill Downs after his Medina Spirit won and subsequently
stripped of the victory after the colt tested for a banned substance. Last year
his Citizen Bull finished 15th. Whether you like Bob Baffert or whether
he is good for the industry is clearly defined like a Litmus Test – its yes or
no – no middle ground. Litmus Test is
owned by an ownership group that self-anointed themselves as the Avengers
(insert eye-roll emoji here) who shelled out $875,000 for the colt at the
Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale.
As to Litmus Test’s chances in the Derby, Baffert has walked over much better horses to
the Churchill Downs paddock. Its
possible that Litmus Test didn’t take to the Oaklawn Park surface where the
colt finished 3rd – 5 lengths back and 7th - 12+ lengths
back in his only 2 3yo starts. But seems that Litmus Test doesn’t seem to be
the same as the colt was as a 2yo when he won the Los Alamitos Futurity.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
5 Right to Party 30-1
Owner: Chester
Broman Sr.
Trainer: Kenneth
McPeek
Jockey: Christoper
Elliot
Pedigree: Constitution (Tapit) –
Havin a Party (Emcee)
Record: 4: 1-1-2
LSI: 96-94-95
Longtime leading owner on the NYRA circuit 91 year old
Chester Broman Sr. seems to be the last person one would think to name a horse
for a Beastie Boys song. Fight for your
Right (to Party) was a 1986 release on the Beastie’s Licensed to Ill
album – the one and only album that Rick Rubin produced for the trio. The connection of Mr. Broman and the Beastie
Boys is a mystery possibly nonagenarian Mr. Broman identified with this line
from Licensed to Ill’s track No Sleep to Brooklyn:
Like a lemon to a lime a lime to a lemon/ I sip the
def ale with all the fly women
There is no mystery on Right To Party’s chances to
win the Derby. The probability is close
to nil. Right to Party has only 1 win,
speed figures (LSI, Brisnet, Beyers) are the lowest in the field, and a Derby
rookie jockey. As a deep closer, there
is a very outside chance that may hit the board.
Locks Verdict: 🔒
6 Commandment 6-1
Owner: Wathnan
Racing
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) – Sippican Harbor (Orb)
Record: 5:4-0-0
LSI: 104-106-100
Commandment’s owner is Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al
Thani, a Qatari emir. Sheikh Tamim’s Wathnan
Racing has only been in operation since 2022 and only campaigning horses
outside of Qatar since 2023 and Commandment is their first Derby runner. Sheikh Tamim since getting his taste in horse
racing has now put tremendous amount of money into the industry. Although Sheikh Tamim has owned Commandment at
the start of his racing career, many Wathnan runners are those that had
successful starts for other owners and then Shiekh Tamim has opened up the
check book to acquire proven talent. Commandment was bought at auction for $500,000
from breeder Lee Pokoik, a long time owner on the NYRA circuit. Commanment is
out of Sippican Harbor, winner of the G1 Spinaway Stakes and the best filly
that Pokoik owned. Pokoik as a breeder sells his mares’ colts and keeps the
fillies but has said he was very tempted to keep Commandment as he was a magnificent
foal. Lee Pokoik who made his money on
New York real estate was actually the Locks’ first landlord in Manhattan. Luckily, we got our rent checks in on-time as
a quick search of Lee Pokoik’s name on the internet shows he is quite litigious
with litany of court cases popping up attached to his name. He also made news
for threatening litigation on being delivered free newspapers. In a profile of Mr. Pokoik on his 2010 run for
Longboat Key town committee – a supporter of his said “Litigious” should be his
middle name.
There is no litigation needed on proving that the Pokoik-bred
Commandment is a talented horse – consider this:
-
4 wins in a row – including victories
over tough Derby competitors Chief Wallabee and The Puma
-
Great speed figures: triple digit Brisnet, triple digit Brisnet late
pace figures, triple-digit LSIs, 2 triple digit Beyer figures (only horse in
field that can brag about that).
-
Last-race closing 1/8th time
that is .38 seconds faster than the average Kentucky Derby winner’s last-race
come-home time.
-
A presser racing style that suits well
for the Kentucky Derby.
Commandment’s past performances looks very similar to
a former Kentucky Derby Lock and Winner, Orb who happens also to be Commandment’s
broodmare sire (grandfather).
For this, Commandment is the 2026 Kentucky Derby Lock
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒
7 Danon Bourbon 20-1
Owner: Danox
Co. Ltd.
Trainer:
Ikezoe Manabu
Jockey: A. Nishimura
Pedigree: Maxfield
(Street Sense) –
Wild Ridge
(Tapit)
Record: 3: 3-0-0
LSI: xx-xx-xx
The rise in Japanese
horse racing has been coming for a long time but since 2021 it has become
acutely apparent on the biggest stages in the world. In 2021, Japanese horses, Loves Only You and
March Lorraine, won Breeders Cup races. In 2022, Japanese horses swept 4 of the
races on the Saudi Cup international racing undercard and then won 5 of the
races on the Dubai World Cup international racing undercard. In 2023, Japanese horses won the Saudi Cup
and 2 other undercard races, won the Dubai World Cup and 2 other undercard
races, and had the number 1 ranked horse in the world, Equinox. In 2024, Japanese bred and trained, Forever Young was
3rd in the Derby and the Breeder’s Cup classic but in 2025, Forever
Young won the Breeder’s Cup Classic. These results continue to show to the US
and the World that Japanese trained horses are some of the best horses in the
world.
-
Danon Bourbon is an American bred and one
bred for the Kentucky Derby, consider that the sire is Maxfield – a horse that
had 5 – 1 mile+ wins at Churchill Downs.
-
The Japanese Netkeiba speed figures for Danon Bourbon coming into the race
includes a last race figure of 105.
Japan’s G1 dirt race winners typically win with a 105 speed figure.
-
In past Japanese horses that have run in the
Kentucky Derby weren’t necessarily the best dirt 3yos in Japan. As with in 2024 Forever Young who was
clearly
the highest rated dirt 3yo in Japan
– Danon Bourbon also is considered the best Japanese trained 3yo dirt horse.
-
Only horse in field with 3 – 9+ furlong
wins – only 5 other Derby contenders have actually raced 2x+ over 9
furlong. All 3 of Danon Bourbon’s 9+
furlong wins were 3+ length demolitions.
-
Running
style will be pressing the pace.
-
Has 2 impressive wins on muddy track --
the Muddy Track Lock.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
8 So Happy 15-1
Owner: Norman Stables
LLC/Saints or Sinners Racing
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike Smith
Pedigree: Run
Happy
(Super Saver) – So
Cunning
(Blame)
Record: 4: 3-0-1
LSI (Locks Speed Index
last 3 races, last race first): 101-101-105
Owner Robby Norman is back in the
Kentucky Derby. His Norman Stables ran
Coal Battle to an 11th place finish in last year’s Derby. If you recall Mr. Norman’s background story, he
is a grocery store owner from Alabama who recounted how he got into
racing. “I went through a divorce,
something I really didn’t want. We actually had just bought a new home….I went
to stay in an apartment in downtown Thomasville by the railroad tracks. I was
flipping through channels on TV….I said, ‘You know what? This divorce stuff is
negative. I’ve got to do something to get out of this.’ “ From cooking Mac and Cheese on an open flame
burner to an owners’ box on the first Saturday of May for a 2nd
time.
In most years, the Santa Anita Derby
comes to the Derby at least reasonable odds to win the Derby. Even though So
Happy has won 3 out of 4 including the San Vicente Stakes on top of the Santa
Anita Derby and has Mike Smith in the saddle -a 2x winner in a record 28 mounts
in the Derby – So Happy has been largely dismissed. The focus goes to the horses pedigree –
although the broodmare sire is Blame who can sire horses that can get the Derby
distance – the sire is Runhappy – a brilliant sprinter campaigned by James “Mattress
Mac” McIngvale. The Locks is with the
consensus on this one – may see So Happy competitive at a mile in future but
not a winner at a mile and a quarter.
Owner: Ogma Investments LLC/JR
Ranch/High Step Racing LLC
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Pedigree: Essential
Quality (Tapit)
– Eve of War (Declaration
of War)
Record: 4: 1-2-1
LSI: 104-98-92
The Locks leaves no stone unturned in trying to find
a betting angle for the Derby. Of the
recorded names of horses that have run in the Derby, 11 have a name related to
a cat/big cat. Interestingly the
distinction between a cat and a big cat (for example, lion, tiger, panther etc)
is whether they roar or not. A puma is
actually considered a small cat because it meows not roars. Of these 11 feline-named runners, 2 have had
runner-up finishes and 1 has a show finish which is better than average
results.
The Puma despite being named for a small cat does
have big chances of being in the mix.
-
The Puma has the same connections (owner,
trainer, jockey) as 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
-
The Puma is sired by the 2021 Derby Lock
and 3rd place finisher, Essential Quality.
-
Won the Tampa Bay Derby outdueling
Further Ado
-
Came back 3 weeks later to just get nosed
out by Commandment in the Florida Derby
-
Is a Brisnet P (Presser) rating which
should suit well in the Derby.
-
Solid Brisnet Late Pace figures.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
10 Wonder Dean 30-1
Owner: Yamamoto Yoshinari
Trainer: Takayanagi
Daisuke
Jockey: R.
Sakai
Pedigree: Dee
Majesty (Deep Impact) – Wonder Siang (Wonder Acute)
Record: 6: 2-2-0
LSI: xx-xx-xx
Wonder Dean is looking to be the first Japanese bred
and trained horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
Despite a win in the 9.5 furlong UAE Derby and solid performances in
Japan, Wonder Dean is considered the weaker of the 2 Japanese trained
horses. Look for a running style that
is pressing the pace. Japanese speed
figures are slower than Forever Young had in 2024. Very similar profile as Admire Daytona in
last year’s Derby who finished 19th and last.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
Owner: Pin
Oak Stud LLC
Trainer: Riley
Mott
Jockey: Jamie
Torres
Pedigree: Bolt
d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) – Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again)
Record: 5: 3-0-0
LSI: 100-75-103
Riley Mott has been a rising star of a trainer since
his first winner in 2022 – a filly named Unifying who also became his first
stakes winner to having not only 1 but 2 starters at the Kentucky Derby.
Incredibolt not only is just a starter in the Derby but a true contender. Consider this:
-
3 wins including the only horse in field
to have 2 wins at Churchill Downs and 1 of only 2 that have a 2-turn win under
the Twin Spires.
-
Triple Digit Brisnet and Late Pace
Brisnet figure
-
Only horse in field besides Renegade that
has a sub-12 last-race come-home time.
Average last-race come-home time for Kentucky Derby winners in last 25
years has been 12.7s.
-
Coming into the race fresh – since 1929
only Authentic in 2020 has had a 49 day break from racing and won the Derby.
-
Put a line through the clunker in the
Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park – some horses just don’t take to the
Gulfstream surface. Incredibolt has
already proven twice that the colt likes Churchill Downs dirt track.
Need to have Incredibolt in the mix.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒
🔒🔒
12
Chief Wallabee 8-1
Owner:
Michael and Kathleen Ball
Trainer: Bill
Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Pedigree: Constitution (Tapit) – A La Lucie (Medaglia D’ Oro)
Record: 3:1-1-1
LSI: 103-106-105
Although Chief Wallabee was one of the last of the horses
to draw into the Derby field, the Chief trained by 2025 Kentucky Derby
(Sovereignty) winning trainer, Bill Mott has a real shot at the garland of
roses. Despite the facts against horses
that never started as a 2yo (2 of 75 since 1937) and those that only have 1 win
prior to coming to the Derby, Chief Wallabee has shown the colt belongs to be a
threat to win. Speed figures are more
than solid (3 triple digit LSIs, 2 triple digit Brisnet, near 2 triple digit
Beyers). Short only by a neck to
Commandment from winning the Fountain of Youth (note: Chief Wallabee ran 3
horse lengths further than Commandment).
Short only by a half-a-length to Commandment and the Puma from winning
the Florida Derby. Bill Mott noted that Chief Wallabee had a “Sovereignty-like”
workout at Churchill Downs ahead of the Derby.
Been some discussion on an equipment change for the colt, Chief Wallabee
will add blinkers for the Derby to help the colt keep focus on the race. The statistics on horses adding blinkers for
the Derby aren’t great over last 25 years – average finish is 10th
with best finish being 4th --- this negative stat is the equivalent
when the biggest complaint about your NFL team is that your punter isn’t
good.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
13 Silent Tactic 20-1
Owner: John C. Oxley
Trainer: Mark
Casse
Jockey: Christian Torres
Pedigree: Tacitus (Tapit) – Magical
Sign (Gun Runner)
Record: 6: 2-4-0
LSI: 102-99-104
Silent
Tactic is owned by John Oxley who made his money in oil and spent his money
becoming a 5 goal polo player (the polo
equivalent of being a scratch golfer). Oxley has campaigned 8 horses that have
made it to the Derby including Monarchos who won the blanket of roses in 2001.
Silent Tactic is similar to other Oxley Derby runners such as Monarchos,
Prospective and Enforceable in being horses that like to come well off the
pace. Silent Tactic is sired by 2019
Derby Lock and 3rd place finisher Tacitus. 6 for 6 in exacta finishes. Issue is that
speed figures puts Silent Tactic several lengths behind more likely winners.
Lock’s Verdict:
🔒🔒🔒
14 Potente 20-1
Owner:
Speedway Stables Inc.
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: JJ
Hernandez
Pedigree: Into
Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) – Sweet Sting (Awesome Again)
Record: 3: 2-1-0
LSI: 98-103-98
Speedway Stables is named after the Houston, Texas
street Buffalo Speedway which one of the owners Peter Fluor has his
roots. Fluor has made money both from his family’s company the Fluor
Corporation, which was involved in the Manhattan Project, and also from his own
energy business. Although his dad had investment in Alleged – a two time L’Arc
winner – Peter Fluor did not get into thoroughbred ownership until 2014.
Fluor campaigned Roadster in 2019 who was 4th favorite but finished
15th. Perhaps from their
efforts in the Manhattan Project the Fluor Corp. got some Oppenheimer
movie residuals as Speedway was able to fork over $2.4 million for Potente at
the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale.
On the track: unraced at 2, 2 for 3, a triple-digit last-race Brisnet
figure. Potente is named after what is considered one of the best Italian
restaurants in Houston. Potente is
owned by Houston Astros chairman Jim Crane --- I don’t know about you but I don’t
go to Italian restaurants that are owned by those whose heritage doesn’t
originate from the Boot. Potente (the
horse) is the Potente (the restaurant) of the Derby field – high priced but without
soul.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
15 Emerging Market 15-1
Owner: Klaravich Stables Inc.
Trainer: Chad
C. Brown
Jockey: Flavien
Prat
Pedigree: Candy
Ride
(Ride the Rails) – Wild Empress (Empire
Maker)
Record: 2: 2-0-0
LSI: 105-104-xx
Klaravich Stables’ Seth Klarman uses financial terms
as the naming convention for his horses.
His other Derby runners included Highly Motivated, Domestic Product and
Read the Footnotes but only Practical Joke, one that didn’t fit the theme of
his usual names, has finished in the top 5. This colt may emerge as one of the
leaders of the division later in the year but Emerging Market has to overcome
some damning historic facts to win the Derby.
Since 1937, there have been only 6 Kentucky Derby runners that come into
the race with only 2 starts – none have won and average finish has been 11th. In looking at the whole history of the race –
there has been only 1 winner, Leonatus in 1883 (historic reference: 5 years before Vincent Van Gogh cuts off his
ear) that has won the Derby with only 2 races under their belt.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
16 Pavlovian 30-1
Owner: Reddam
Racing Inc.
Trainer: Doug O’Neil
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Pedigree: Pavel
(Creative Cause) – Mandy’s Grace (Bellamy Road)
Record: 10: 2-4-1
LSI: 105-103-97
In last 2 races Pavlovian has shown the Pavlovian
response of running hard when hearing the bell and opening of the starting
gates. Trainer Doug O’Neil changed
tactics on Pavlovian from racing off the pace to running on or near the pace
which has resulted in winning the Sunland Park Derby and a 2nd by a
head in the Louisiana Derby after going on a 6 race losing streak.
Pavlovian similar to fellow California-bred California
Chrome in that is hoping to be the only Kentucky Derby winner this century to
have 10 starts under belt coming into the Derby. Pavlovian is owned by 2x Kentucky Derby
winning owner, Paul Reddam who also won with I’ll Have Another (2012) and
Nyquist (2016). Pavlovian has the least
patrician bloodlines of the Derby field – out of a $4,000 sire Pavel and a mare
that won 1 claiming race.
Although Pavlovian’s performances has been better with
the new early pace running style – it may not be suitable for the Derby. There will be better horses that will gobble
up Pavlovian as they enter the stretch. Pass.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
17 Six Speed 50-1
Owner: Brunetti/Dugan Stables/Black Type Thorougbreds
Trainer: Seemar Bhupat
Jockey: Brian
Hernandez
Pedigree: Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) – Browse (Medaglia D’
Oro)
Record: 5: 3-1-1
LSI: xx-xx-xx
Six Speed is an American bred but Dubai based runner
who won the UAE 2000 Guineas in impressive fashion but could not hold off
Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. Despite
having a solid Derby pedigree, there is too much to overcome to be able to
consider Six Speed to be a factor in the Derby. Consider that there have only
been 3 runners that have come in from the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai without
winning that race. The last 2x it was in 2022, Summer is Tomorrow finished 20th
and last (also trained by Bhupat Seemar) and in 2019 when Gray Magician
finished 19th and last. Pass.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
18 Further Ado 6-1
Owner: Spendthrift
Farm LLC
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Gun
Runner
(Candy Ride) – Sky
Dreamer (Sky Mesa)
Record: 5:2-1-1
LSI: 104-97-101
Further Ado is the Punch the Monkey of the Derby
field. Punch the Monkey was abandoned
and ignored before being provided the
comfort of an Ikea orange orangutang and then eventually accepted into the
troop of monkeys. Like Punch, Further
Ado was ignored after a 5th place finish on debut at Saratoga and
then again losing again at the Spa by over 6 lengths. Further Ado then found comfort in the form of
Keeneland Race Track and won its 3rd race and win it did indeed by a
whopping 20 lengths. The comfort of
Kentucky continued with 2 turn win at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey
Club Stakes – albeit significantly less impressive than its maiden win –
Further Ado along with Incredibolt are the only 2 Derby runners this year that
have a 2 turn win at Churchill Downs.
After the win at Churchill Downs, Further Ado was taken away from
Kentucky and sent to Florida where the colt lost to The Puma in the Tampa Bay
Derby. When Further Ado was brought back
to the bosom of Keeneland, again Further Ado flourished with an 11 length
win in the Bluegrass Stakes. This win
earned Further Ado the highest speed figures Brisnet and Beyers in the
field. As to divine on how Further Ado
will perform in the Kentucky Derby – the Locks feels that Further Ado may miss
the nurturing touch of Lexington and not put in the peak performance that
Further Ado has shown in its Keeneland wins.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
19 Golden Tempo 30-1
Owner: Phipps Stable/St. Elias
Stable
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose
Ortiz
Pedigree: Curlin (Smart
Strike)
- Carrumba (Bernadini)
Record: 4: 2-0-2
LSI: 104-92-98
As done last year with the analysis of one
contender –this year the reins of Golden
Tempo’s Derby chances have been handed over to AI – let’s see how it does:
Golden Tempo profiles as one of the more
intriguing—but ultimately flawed—types heading into the 2026 Kentucky Derby. On
paper, he checks several important boxes: he’s well-bred for the distance (by
Curlin out of a Bernardini mare), has already shown a strong late kick, and
comes from connections that know exactly how to develop a classic-distance
horse. His Lecomte Stakes win, where he rallied from the back of the field,
highlights real ability and suggests he can pass horses late—something not
every Derby contender can do. At the same time, that running style is also his
biggest obstacle. Deep closers historically struggle in the Derby because they
need a fast pace, clean racing luck, and perfect timing in a crowded 20-horse
field. When Golden Tempo stepped up in class in his next prep, he couldn’t
quite finish the job, raising concerns about whether his closing punch is
strong enough against elite competition.
What makes his profile more interesting is who owns
him. Golden Tempo is campaigned by the historic Phipps Stable, part of a racing
dynasty that dates back nearly a century and was founded by Gladys Mills
Phipps, often called the “First Lady of the Turf.” That legacy has produced
generations of top-class horses and major industry influence, including
multiple champions and deep involvement in shaping American racing at the
highest level. His co-owner, St. Elias Stable, has also tasted Derby success
before, meaning this isn’t an inexperienced ownership group—they know exactly
what it takes to get a horse to peak on the first Saturday in May, having been
part of past Derby-winning partnerships.
Still, when you put it all together, Golden Tempo
looks much more like a horse who could run well than win. He has the pedigree
and talent to stay the distance and pass tired horses late, but his dependence
on race shape and lack of dominance in top preps make him a risky win bet. In a
typical Derby scenario, he fits best as a third- or fourth-place finisher in
exotics, the kind of horse who can inflate payouts if things break his way—but
one that likely needs too many variables to go right to be considered a true “Lock”.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
20 Fulleffort 20-1
Owner: St.
Elias Stable/Starlight Racing
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gafflione
Pedigree: Liam’s
Map (Unbridled Song) – Callmethesqueeze
(Awesome Again)
Record: 7:3-2-1
LSI: 110-106-100
Former President George W. Bush had a famous quote: “There's
an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that
says, 'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled
again”. That’s my sentiment about
Fulleffort. There are some trappings in
this horse’s past performances that in the past the Locks have been enchanted
like a siren song only to be dashed on the rocks of lost Kentucky Derby betting
tickets. Consider:
-
Highest last race LSI.
-
Progressive speed figures.
-
3 wins in last 6 races and in the money
in the other 3 – losing by only 1 length or less.
-
Blazing Churchill Downs workouts
In 2022, the Derby Lock was Tiz the Bomb who had
similar characteristics including coming into the Derby with a win the Jeff
Ruby Stakes (nee Jim Beam Stakes) at Turfway Park. The reality was that Tiz the Bomb was more
of a turf horse rather than one to handle the round river sand, clay and silt
composition of the Churchill Downs oval.
As with Tiz the Bomb, I do expect Fulleffort to have a better career on
the turf in the future and will not factor in the finish of the Derby.
Locks Verdict:
🔒🔒🔒
------------------------------------------------------
Give the following horses further consideration if a muddy/sloppy track: Danon Bourbon
Kentucky Derby
Locks
◎ 6
Commandment
○ 12 Chief Wallabee
▲ 11 Incredibolt
△ 7 Danon Bourbon
△ 1 Renegade
△ 18
Further Ado
△ 9
The Puma
The Locks Bets are;
$20 Win #6 = $20
$1 Exacta All over #6 = $19
$10 WPS #6 = $30
$5 WPS #12 = $15
$1 Exacta Box: 6,12,11,7,18,1/6,12,11,7,18,1,9 = $36
$1 Exacta 6,12,11/6,12,11,7,18,1,9= $18
$.50 Trifecta 6,12,11/6,12,11,7,18,1,9/6,12,11,7,18,1,9=.50 3 x 6 x 5 =$45
Total $20+$30+$19+$15+$36+$18+$45=$183.
|
The Locks Rating |
The Locks |
Morning Line |
|
|
Commandment |
Renegade |
|
|
Chief
Wallabee Incredibolt Danon
Bourbon Renegade Further
Ado The
Puma |
Commandment Further
Ado Chief
Wallabee The
Puma |
|
|
Emerging
Market Golden
Tempo Fulleffort So
Happy Wonder
Dean Silent
Tactic Albus Pavlovian Potente |
Emerging
Market So
Happy Danon
Bourbon Incredibolt Silent
Tactic Potente Fulleffort |
|
|
Litmus
Test Six
Speed |
Albus Litmus
Test Wonder
Dean Pavlovian Golden
Tempo Right
to Party |
|
|
Intrepido Right to Party |
Six Speed Intrepido |
Kentucky Oaks
Locks
◎ 10
Prom Queen
○ 9 Always a Runner
▲ 8 Bottle of Rouge
△ 2
Zany
△ 4
Counting Stars
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