Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) - The Locks Picks the Winners

Sunday is Christmas and Santa will be bringing all good little boys and girls presents.  Over Christmas Eve night it will be already Christmas in Nakayama, Japan which is the site of the Japanese Grand Prix which is almost more power packed than the Japan Cup.   Orfevre (オルフェーヴル), Hiruno D'Amour, Earnestly (アーネストリー) are added from the Japan Cup field to round out the entries.   Orvevre hasn't raced since capturing the Japanese Triple Crown.  Hiruno D'Amour is back in Japan after racing in the L'Arc and Earnestly after winning a couple of graded stakes over the summer is back from a lack-luster Tenno Sho.  


So Christmas will be celebrated not only with Santa-san and eating Kentucky Fried Chicken but with some high quality horse racing. 


The Locks are....


I am going to take a stand against the favorite 2-1 Orvevre, the winner of the Japanese Triple Crown.  Orvevre has yet to race against older horses.  And the 3yos that last raced in the Japan Cup didn't fare very well. Win Variation (ウインバリアシオン ) could only manage a 5th place showing in the Japan Cup after growing tired in the stretch.  Win Variation probably is the 2nd best 3yo this year with place showings behind Orvevre in the Japanese Derby and Japanese St. Leger.  


Tosen Jordan is the winner of the Tenno Sho winner also was runner up in the Japan Cup.   Has 3 wins out of 4 tries on the Nakayama course...only loss was last year in this same race...but last year set pace and tired in stretch...probably wont repeat strategy this year.


Buena Vista is coming off victory in the Japan Cup and is such a consistent horse ,17 1st or 2nd place showings out of 22 tries including a 2nd in this race in last 2 years.


Hiruno D'Amour is a horse that is capable of winning this race and at 40-1, I give it a shot.  Has a 2nd place finish as 6th favorite in a Grade 1 at Nakayama before.   Has had time coming back from France and running in the L'Arc to be fit for this race.


 Victoire Pisa also is capable of winning this race....actually any race in the world after winning the Dubai World Cup but fitness is in question as seen by poor showing in Japan Cup.  But can't get past fact that has raced 4 times at Nakayama and has won 4 times....including winning this race last year.  


◎ Tosen Jordanトーセンジョーダン 16-1 
○ Buena Vista ブエナビスタ  4.3-1
▲Hiruno D'Amourヒルノダムール 41-1
△ Victoire Pisaヴィクトワールピサ 12.6-1


Lets win and exacta saver on Tosen Jordan.
Lets box the 4 horse in exactas and trifectas


Good luck....and most of all Merry Christmas!!!

Hong Kong International Races day - The Locks Picks the Winners

Sunday is Hong Kong International Races day....a mini-Breeder's Cup-esque day of races.  There are 4 G1 races at Sha Tin featuring some of the world's best  

The Hong Kong Vase goes 1 1/2m...The Locks likes Dunaden, the winner of the Melbourne Cup at 8-1.  Redwood has raced consistently amongst top competition all over the world.  Trailblazer only has 1 win but did just place 4th in the Japan Cup.  Thumb's Up just won in graded stakes company at Sha Tin - but would hope for better odds...if Camponolgist, an Italian racing star goes off better odds slot the paisan in instead of the local horse.

香港　Vase 2400m
5 ◎ Dunaden 8 -1 odds
8 ○ Redwood　１０
1 ▲ Trailblazer　１０
9 △ Thumb's Up　８


Sprint is a 6 furlong featuring 14 runners.  Little Bridge has raced exclusively at ShaTin and has never been out of money going 6f.  Rocket Man from Singapore is winning machine 18 wins out of 23 tries...has won also in Dubai and Sha Tin..only  out of money start came in its only appearance in Japan.  Curran Chan has won last 4 races all graded.  Lucky Nine has 8 out of 11 in the money finishes including winning at 6f at Sha Tin.


香港　Sprint 1200m
6 ◎ Little Bridge 10 
１ ○ Rocket Man 4
１４ ▲ Curran Chan　７
４ △ Lucky Nine 4


In the Mile, the Locks likes Cityscape has 2 graded wins this year going 1 mile - 12 out of 15 in the money finishes.  Sahpresa was 3rd in this race last year but comes in race with better form due to a successful 2011.  Destined for Glory won going a mile at Sha Tin recently beating top HK horse, Ambitious Dragon.  Apapane beat Japan Cup winner, Buena Vista, in a mile race this summer. 


香港　Mile　１６００m
1 ◎　Cityscape 12
13 ○ Sahpresa 7
8 ▲ Destined For Glory 11
14 △ Apapane 20


In the HK Cup, the Locks likes Ambitious Dragon.  AD since last October has 8 wins in 10 tries including 2 at 2000m.  Byword is a horse I liked in BC Mile but disappointed...but has a great record this year including a 10f win over Cirrus des Aigles.  CdA hasn't been out of money in 2011 including winning British Champion Stakes. California Memory 


香港 Cup 2000m
2 ◎　Ambitious Dragon 2
3 ○ Byword 7
1 ▲ Cirrus des Aigles 2
6 △ California Memory 10


In betting would box exactas and trifectas and make win bets on top 2.


Good luck!!

2011 Japan Cup Dirt - The Locks Picks the Winners

Last week was the Japan Cup, this weekend is the Japan Cup Dirt which is another Grade 1 race worth over $2 million.  Race is run at the Hanshin race track near Osaka going 1 1/8m (1800m). Although most JRA races are run on the turf, there are still some very good horses in this race. Including the runner -up in the Dubai World Cup and the winner of this race last year in Transcend.  Transcend rebounded well from that race with 1 win and 1 second since coming back from the UAE. Transcend hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 8 races.  Espoir City won this race in 2009 and has competed in the BC Classic. EC loves the distance with 6 wins and 1 second in 7 races and likes Hanshin with a perfect 2 for 2 record on the track.  Transcend and Espoir City will be the top 2 favorites and they will be difficult to overlook.  However, will need to consider others as well as pace will be a definite factor in the race.  


Tosho Freak will set the pace with Transcend and Espoir City wanting to chase the pace.  Depending on how fast Tosho Freak will go will set the fate for Transcend and Espoir City.  If setting too fast fractions then look for horses coming off the pace like Nihonpiro Ours  or Miracle Legend.  Nihonpiro Ours has not been out of the money in its 13 race career including 2 wins on the Hanshin dirt.   Had the fastest last 3 f time in the key Miyako Stakes in last race.  Miracle Legend will come off the pace and will benefit from fast fractions from the leaders.  Miracle Legend has 8 wins in its 15 race career including winning last 3 all at 1800m...actually all of this 4yo fillies wins have come at 1800m.   


The Locks are:


◎ #12 Nihonpiro Ours ニホンピロアワーズ
○  #11 Miracle Legend ミラクルレジェンド
▲ #16 Transcend トランセンド
△ #6 Espoir City エスポワールシチー


$1 Exacta #12 over all

$1 Trifecta Box 12.11.16.6

2011 Japan Cup - The Locks Picks The Winners

Sunday is the Japan Cup.   Its one of the world's premier races along with the BC Classic, Prix L'Arc de Triomphe, and the Dubai World Cup.   As being one of the world's top races, the field features some of the best.   L'Arc de Triomphe winner, Danedream and the Dubai World Cup winner, Victorie Pisa will line up.   The field also featuers Tosen Jordan is the recent winner of the Tenno Sho Autumn in record time and Rose Kingdom, once Japan's 2yo champion and last year's winner of this race.   Another top contender is Buena Vista is a horse that has gone off as favorite and has finished in the money in each of its 19 starts on Japanese soil except one.

The Locks likes:

Rose Kingdom won this race via DQ last year and this year is going off 9th favorite despite a recent 2400m win.   RK has been successful at Tokyo Race Course and has never been out of the money going 2400m.   Buena Vista is the most consistent horse at the top level in Japan - won the race last year but was DQd.  Win Variation has won at distance and the track but has a couple of runner-up finishes in top G1 races.   Pelusa has top jock Nori-san and comes off a show finish in the Tenno Sho Autumn with a top closing time. 

The Locks are:

◎ ＃３ Rose Kingdom ロースキングドム

○ #2 Buena Vista ブエナビスタ

▲ #12 Win Variation ワインバリアシオン

△ #7 Pelusa ペルーサ

$1 Exacta #3 over all

$1 Exacta All over #3

$1 Exacta Box #3,#2,#12,#7

$1 Trifecta Box #3,#2,#12,#7

Good Luck...Ganbatte!!

Queen Elizabeth II Cup Kyoto - The Locks Picks the WInner

The QEII Cup in Kyoto represents the best of the fillies and mares in Japan.  Race is run over 2200m (same distance as BC F+M Turf).   


Last year the race was won by European filly, Snow Fairy, again Snow Fairy will contend in the race. Snow Fairy is coming into the race with place and show finishes in some of the major races in Europe(L'Arc, Irish Champion Stakes, British Champion Stakes) against open fields.  It could be possible that these races have taken their toll. Also the trainer this week discussed how she may not be her fittest after her time quarantine.  


Dancing Rain also invades from Europe and comes in with a similar resume that Snow Fairy had last year.   Dancing Rain could be Europe's best 3yo filly with a win in the English Oaks.  DR also won the German Oaks and the top fillies and mare race on British Champions Day.  Is one of the few horses in race that has raced and won at 2200m.  


Italian Red will go off as either 3 or 4th favorite.  IR has 8 wins in 18 races including coming off 3 straight graded stakes wins.  Although the 5yo mare hasn't raced at 2200m has good final furlong times that show she may want the extra distance.  Threw a clunker at Kyoto last year but now is better form.


Aventura won at this course last month in a Grade 1 race and comes in on a 3 win streak also.   Feel that the extra furlong may be an issue as she did not sport the best closing times (although win) in last 2 races.


Whale Capture has never been out of the money in her 10 races.   3rd in the Japanese Oaks going 2400m  so this distance shouldn't be issue.  In 4 races at the G1 level hasn't broken through yet to win so maybe the bridesmaid but not the bride in this one too. 


Here are the Locks:

◎2 Italian Red イタリアンレッド
○14Dancing Rain ダンシングレイン
▲18Snow Fairy スノーフェアリー
△1 Aventura アヴェンチュラ
☆3 Whale Capture  ホエールキャプチャ


１０００円　単勝 Win　＃２
５００円　単勝 Win　＃１４
１００円　馬単 Exacta　＃２、＃１４、＃１８、＃１
１００円　3連単　Trifecta ＃２、＃１４、＃１８、＃１

１０００＋５００＋１００x１２＋１００x２４＝５１００円

Breeder's Cup 2011 - The Locks Picks The Winners - Day 2 Wagering

The Locks took it on the chin for BC Day 1.  

Let's try these for today....Good luck!!!

R3, BC Marathon

$1 Pick 3 (1,3,5//10,12,13//2,6,8)

$5 Win #3

R4, BC Juvenile Turf

$1 Exacta 3,10,12,13

$1 Trifecta 3,10,12,13

R5, BC Sprint

$4 WP #2

R6, BC Turf Sprint

$1 Pick 3 (8,13,14//9,8,5//2)

$1 Exacta 8 over All

$1 Exacta (8,12,13,14)

R7, BC Dirt Mile

$10 Win #9

$1 Trifecta (8,9,5,7)

R8, BC Turf

$10 Win #2

R9, BC Juvenile

$1 Exacta 5 over all

$1 Exacta all over 5

$4 WP 12

$1 Exacta (5, 12,2,10)

$ 2 Daily Double (5,10//1,8,13)

R10, BC Mile

$1 Exacta 8 over all

$1 Exacta (8,1,5, 13)

Breeder's Cup 2011 - The Locks Picks the Winners, The Locks Bets

OK....we got the horse the Locks likes.   But now how are we going to make money today and tomorrow.  


Let's go with a $250 bankroll for betting the first 14 races.  The BC Classic I've already laid out my betting on that - see previous post.  






Today the BC Races start at 4:10 with Race 5...






Let's go:
Friday, November 4


Race 5
$5WP # 9
$1 ExBox #9, #6, #8
Pick 3 (#9,#6 //  #10,#12, #14 // #6,#3,#12)
Pick 6 (#6//#10//#3//#9,#11//#6,#2//#6, #7)


Bets = $10 + $6 + $18 +$8 = $42


Race 6
$4 WP # 12


Bets (race) = $8
Bets (total) = $34 + $8 = $50


Race 7 
$1 Exacta #12 over all
$2 WP #2


Bets (race) = $12 + $4
Bets (total) = $16 + $50 = $66


Race 8
Pick 3 (#5, #9,#10, #11// #2,#7,#6// #6,#7)
$3 WP #10


Bets (race) = $24 + $6
Bets (total) = $96


Race 9
$5WP #6
Bets (race) = $10
Bets (total) = $106


Race 10
$5 WP #7
Bets (race) = $10
Bets (total) = $116


Lets see how we do after Friday's races -- it may influence betting strategy for Saturday!
Good Luck!!!

Breeder's Cup - The Locks Picks The Winners, BC Classic + Wagers

The BC Classic ranks as one of the greatest races on the calendar during the year...you need to throw in that category the Dubai World Cup, Prix du L'Arc d' Triomphe, the Japan Cup and the Champion Stakes (on British Champion's Day).   This year's edition of the BC Classic doesn't feature the superstars that say the 1998 version did which had Silver Charm, Skip Away, euro-star Swain, Gentleman - only to be won by Awesome Again.   This year does feature 2 Belmont Stakes winners (Drosselmeyer, Ruler on Ice), a Travers Stakes winner (Stay Thirsty), last years Melbourne Cup favorite(So You Think), this year's Kentucky Derby morning line favorite (Uncle Mo), winners of multiple Grade 1s in 2011 (Flat Out, Game on Dude) but the favorite will actually be a racemare, Havre de Grace.


Lets look at the contenders in the BC Classic horse by horse....


#1  Prayer for Relief 30-1 SCRATCHED
Bob Baffert scratched this one...it would have been embarrassing to have the BC Classic to be won by a horse with a path, quite reminiscent of a "Hee-Haw" road show, Iowa, West Virginia, Louisiana and Oklahoma.


#2 Flat Out 6-1
Trainer "Scooter" Dickey was down to a single horse in his barn until Flat Out came along.  Coming to race with great form in last 4, 2 wins, 2 2nds and with great workouts at CD.   Include in wagers.


#3 Drosselmeyer 15-1
Named after that creepy guy in the cape from the Nutcracker.   Belmont Stakes winner but has been somewhat inconsistent since.  But, horse is trained by Bill Mott who doesn't send horses to races just to fill fields.


#4 Ruler on Ice 30-1
The pace scenario can easy play out like this....Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve to set pace with Havre de Grace and Game on Dude pressing this pace along - opening up the race for a race running hard at the end which can be this one.   Ruler on Ice rewarded me and readers of the Locks nicely in June when this gelding (ouch!) won the Belmont.   Bright pink silks won't be hard to miss look for them in the last 200m.  


#5 So You Think 5-1
Last year's Melbourne Cup favorite ended up 3rd in that 2 mile race.  Went into L'Arc as 2rd favorite and ended up 4th (only out of money finish since 2009) but missed 2nd by less than a length.  After the Melbourne Cup was sent to Ireland and the UK to race and either won or placed in multiple G1 races including last months Champion Stakes (UK version of the BC Classic).   Only question is whether the horse will handle the dirt since this will be first time being asked to race on the surface.  Will need to include in wagers.


#6 Ice Box 30-1
Cannot think about this horse without thinking of the G. Love and Special Sauce Song "Cold Beverage" :

Yeah I'll have a beverage
Just make sure it's cold
Yeah I like cold beverage, yeah 
'Cuz I'm feelin' kinda thirsty
Stick it in the fridge, stick it in the fridge,
Horse is still living off its 2nd place finish in the Derby and hasn't done much since kind of like "Big Ben" Gillery and his 9 point game vs Syracuse.  Even though I feel a horse coming off the pace like this one does may win...Pass...(the cold beverage to me).

#7 Rattlesnake Bridge 30-1
There actually is a pedestrian bridge in Tucson Arizona that looks like a rattlesnake - someone may have too much time and money on their hands.  Could be that this colt's owner Nicholas Brady is spending some of his retirement in Tucson laughing to himself how lucky he is not being Treasury Secretary now rather than during Reagan and Bush 1.  As a horse that comes off the pace may be a colt that finds himself in a place finish due to the pace scenario.

#8 Game on Dude 10-1
Horse is partially owned by Joe Torre, longtime thoroughbred fan and Yankees manager. I would love to get the coach's view on if he thinks Mariano Rivera is really the "Best".  Even though owned by a baseball coach...the silks of this colt will have a basketball on it.  Maybe the silk maker couldn't read Torre's handwriting on the order.  After coming on to the Triple Crown trail late (raced in Belmont) in 2010, horse went back home to California for Bob Baffert and has turned into a decent handicap horse including winning the"Big Cap" in March. Think pace scenario or the fact the others may be more talented spells a swing and a miss for this gelding (ouch!).

#9 Stay Thirsty 12-1
Got some feedback from the Dos Equis people on my ideas for their "Most Interesting Man in the World - Stay Thirty, My Friends" ads and they said, having the guy eating a melting ice cream cone while waiting on a line at Six Flags, or waiting on toast and having it pop up and it being slightly burnt, or splitting his pants while filling his car with windshield wiper fluid, just wasn't interesting enough....hmmmm, go figure....I said it ahead of the Ky Derby and I will say it again...this horse is as NY as its owner (Michael Ripole), Turtle from Entourage, Diddy, or a pretzel from a street cart vendor (speaking of pretzels, anyone see my TV appearance on Beer Money ?).  Horse has never been out of the money in the state of NY and has never been in the money outside the state of NY.   Since race is in the Commonwealth (yeah one of those) of Kentucky and despite a great summer for this colt, will need to pass.

#10 Havre de Grace 3-1
Super racemare has never been out of the money in her career - including 5 wins out of 6 tries in 2011 (missed being 6 for 6 by a nose). Answered question of whether she can compete with the boys by impressively winning the Woodward.   As I always look for value in my handicapping, I end up looking at things that would detract me from the favorite and found a couple of things...this mare hasn't won at the distance in 2 tries and hasn't won at the track (came third in last years, BC Ladies Classic).  Also I feel that the pace scenario may be that she may in fact get beat in the end by someone coming further off the pace.  But can't bet against her  - need in the mix.


#11 Headache 30-1
This gray gelding's (ouch!) past performance looks like a Big 10 schedule with stops in Nebraska (yes, they are in the Big 10 now), Illinois and Minnesota.  Some interesting things here...can be benefit of pace scenario with its off the pace running style.  Already has 3 wins on the track including a race in May albeit an Optional Claiming where the gray one by 7+ and the running line was "as the rider pleased".   Horse also has 3 races at 1 1/4m with LSIs in these races of 120, 116, and 100.  At 30-1, think there is enough here to take a flyer.


#12 Uncle Mo 5-2
Owner Michael Ripole and his crew won't be hard to miss at Churchill Downs look for the crowd wearing the garish colors of my beloved Mets, New York Blue and Orange.  Ripole, the guy who made a ton of $$ by selling VitaminWater to CocaCola, brings this colt back to the twin spires again but this time there is no question about the colt's health as there was when the horse scratched before the Derby when the colt was morning line favorite.   But now by all accounts in workouts in the morning and recent form, Uncle Mo is in top shape .  As with Havre de Grace, always looking to find dents in the armour of the favorites....for Uncle Mo it is simple...can he get a 1 1/4m?  more so can he get a 1 1/4m on the front end with pressure from a horse very similar in To Honor and Serve? these are big questions that at 5/2 I don't want to answer so I am looking elsewhere.


#12 To Honor and Serve 12-1
Like Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve was considered one of the early favorites for 2011 Kentucky Derby.  To Honor Serve had a great fall last year but two show finishes in the Derby preps at Gulfstream Park made Bill Mott (never someone to catch Derby Fever) take this colt off the Derby trail.    After getting freshened and a leg stretch in the Amsterdam, TH&S has won last 2 impressively.  But as with Uncle Mo, I feel that there are too many questions on whether horse can sustain speed against similarly talented speed horses over 1 1/4m distance.  



The Locks are:


◎ Flat Out
○ So You Think
▲Havre de Grace
△ Headache


$20 Win #2 Flat Out
$1 exacta saver All over #2
$10 Win #11 Headache
$1 exacta saver all over #11
$1 Exacta Box, #2, #11, #5, #10


Good luck....!!!!

Breeder's Cup - The Locks Picks The Winners, Part 2

There are 2 more races at the end of Friday, day 1.   The Fillies and Mare Turf may actually be the best race of the weekend.  Top Turf mares from France, UK, Ireland, and the US converge on making it a contentious race and thus giving the betting public decent odds on great horses.  The Ladies' Classic also will be one featuring a number of good horses that can find themselves in the winner's circle especially since super-mare Havre de Grace will challenge in Saturday's Classic.  Saturday is a day of 9 BC races with a lot of star power including: So You Think, the favorite in last year's Melbourne Cup.  Goldikova, going for her 4th! BC Mile win.  Union Rags, is 3 for 3 and with a win this weekend can leave Churchill Downs the 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite. Uncle Mo, last year's BC Juvenile winner seeks redemption of missing the Ky. Derby when a morning line favorite by winning the BC Classic. Sarafina, an early favorite in L'Arc aims to finish her season with a win in the BC Turf. Plum Pretty, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, Stay Thirsty, the Travers Stakes winner, Shackleford, the Preakness winner and Ruler on Ice, the Belmont Stakes winner all will be on display.  


R9, BC Filly and Mare Turf
◎ Announce 9-2
British bred, French trained....(bad food, good wine??).. consistently placed in 2011...only out of money finish in 2011 was on the soft going...missed by nose in G1 on L'Arc day but seems if had extra furlong that this mare probably would have won.  Can't fault close loss in June to horse that ended up winning feature race on British Champions day.


○ Stacelita 2-1
Last year similarly placed in same races that Announce ran in this year.  Came to US over summer close third against boys in G1, then won the most important F+M turf race of season (besides the BC) in Beverly D.  Also took G1 at Belmont in a bog so can win in all types of weather.


▲ Aruna 6-1
Since coming from France last summer hasn't done worse than 2nd in 7 races including 2 G1s...hasn't raced at this distance so that could be concern but I always like horses that haven't done much wrong in their career like this Graham Motion trained filly.  For those keeping score at home, Aruna is a charioteer to the gods according to Hindu scriptures. 


△ Dubawi Heights 8-1 
Like Aruna hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 7 races which have been the top F+M turf races on the west coast.  Has trained well since her G1 win at beginning of October.


R10, BC Ladies Classic

◎ 

Royal Delta 5/2

Feeling is that Ask the Moon may put enough pressure on favorite Plum Pretty to a

llow Royal Delta to come off pace for win.

○ Ultra Blend 8-1

Hasn't been out of money since 2009 including last 4 which have been graded stakes. 

If pace scenario plays out will come off pace to place.  Question is if horse can run well outside of Cali...

▲Plum Pretty 2-1
Last race ran a huge 120 LSI...Baffert brings filly back to CD where she won the
Oaks in May.  Only out of money finish has been in the 1 1/4m Alabama at
Saratoga...Ideal distance for PP is likely 1 1/16...this race is 1 1/8m so
we'll see if she gets caught in pace to allow others run past her in last
100m.

△It's Tricky 5-1
Runs for the Sheihk's Godolphin racing machine.  Its Tricky, PP and Royal Delta have been butting heads this summer with each claiming a prize...It's Tricky's was the G1 CCA Oaks. Likely winner of this race will be 3yo filly champion.

Saturday, November 5

R3, BC Marathon 
◎Meeznah 12-1 
Meeznah has raced against some of the best in Europe going long distances (hasn't run a race less than 1 1/2m since 2009) - the US breeding may help this filly on the dirt.  Owner sells high end European/American autos in the UAE...after spending some time driving around Dubai realize this guy has probably done pretty well for himself. 

○

Giant Oak 9-2 

Since running in this race last year has run in 5 G1 handicap races seems to be a horse that has its best run late in the race.  However, closers don't necessarily mean success at longer distances -- to be successful in a long race as we've seen in the Belmont that it is good for the horse to stay in close contact with the field before making final move rather than trying to make up to much distance at the end.  So if Giant Oak can be positioned well throughout the race - may mean success. 

▲ 

Birdrun 7-2 

Unlike Giant Oak, Birdrun actually likes to be close to the pace thus Velazquez will need to settle horse early to be able to be still around at the end of the race.


R4, BC Juvenile Turf 
◎ Animal Spirits 8-1 
Bred for turf (Arch is the sire!)....won the Bourbon Stakes has to be worth something extra.  I am waiting for someone to come up with a Bourbon and Ginger Stakes.  Colt will come in hot in final 200m. 

○Finale 5-1 
3 for 3 in last 3 including a blow-out win in the Continental Mile at Monmouth...will race up front and if can rate, will win. 

▲Lucky Chappy 10-1 
Like Animal Spirts was charging hard at the end of the Bourbon Stakes...can't find fault in race as colt was coming off layoff....won previous 2 races "comfortably" ...how else would you want to race when in Rome... 

△Shkspeare Shaliyah 15-1 
Missing a few vowels in name but not missing a good run in the last 200m....Finale, Majestic City, State of Play, Excaper all may prompt pace opening up race to AS, LC, and this colt. 


R5, BC Sprint
◎ Giant Ryan 8-1 
Owners may have made a mistake in naming horse...Pat Ryan was a Jet!! Question is how can you overlook a horse on a 6 race win streak?  Including winning 2 key sprint races in last 2.   

○Force Freeze  10-1 
Didn't fare so well when on secondment in Dubai for 2009, 2010 and winter of 2011  but since back in US has shown success. 

▲Big Drama 7-2 
Hasn't had worse than a place finish since 2009.   Popped a Easy Goer-esque 120 Beyer (111 LSI) at Gulfstream Park in January.  Horse must have good calf muscles. 

△Euroears 4-1....can you bet on a 7yo horse on workouts alone? :46.2 breeze?? Since coming into Baffert's shed has been successful save for a troubled trip in the Vosburgh at Belmont but effort wasn't surprising since Bobby B was kind of like the Mets in that he didn't really have much success in NY this year.   


R6, BC Turf Sprint
◎ Regally Ready  3-1 
In money in all races including 5 wins expect one at Philly Park - must have got hold of a bad cheese steaks, if there is such a thing. 

○ Camp Victory 12-1 
Former claimer..has had re-birth since--- in the money in all except in last. Aiming to be the first Virigina-bred to win a BC race. 

▲Caracortado 4-1 
Say hello to my little friend, Caracortado (or "Scarface" in Spanish) who is another work-out monster :46.00 flat breeze??!! Not really a sprint specialist but may be fast enough to pull this one off.   Dam of "Scarface" is Mons Venus which may be a familiar name to those that are Devil Rays, Buccaneer or Lightening fans (or better yet, players of those teams). 

△Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 
Befitting the name, this 7 year old gelding has scored more (victories, 17) than any other horse in the field.  CB likes CD proven by super quick work on the oval and the 4 wins in 6 tries under the Spires. 


R7, BC Dirt Mile 
◎ Trappe Shot 3-1 
Nicholas Brady must be a lot happier in the role of a Breeder's Cup  starter owner than being a Sec'y of Treasury having to dig your country out of a $14 trillion hole.   Hasn't raced at distance but has won at 1 1/16th and 7f.  Been training well after throwing in something of a clunker last month after a bad start at Belmont. 

○ Caleb's Posse 5-1 
Will get pace to run at with The Factor, Tapizar and Irrefutable tabbed to set the tempo.  Beat Uncle Mo by a nose in the King's Bishop at Saratoga. 

▲Jersey Town 15-1 
Hasn't been out of the money since spring of 2009 including a big LSI 109 in the horse's win in the Cigar Mile.  Owned by Canada's king of diamonds...who is called Captain Chaos by his employees - not sure how'd I feel about that nickname..

△Wilburn 4-1 
On a 3 race win streak, ... named after '80's-'90s era Redskins d-back Barry Wilburn?? owned by same connections that gave us Rachel Alexandra. 


R8, BC Turf   
◎ Sarafina 5-2 
Seeks redemption from career only clunker thrown in the L'Arc as favorite.   After madien has only raced in G1 and G2 company with substantial success...is the horse to beat.

○ Midday 4-1 
In 22 career starts, has been in money 19 times including a 2nd place finish on the CD turf.   Nearly beat the boys already twice this year in open G1s.   

▲ Await the Dawn 5-1 
Was on 4 race win streak until ran into Twice Over and Midday in the Juddmonte International in August.   Kind of like former Police drummer, Stewart Copeland, this colt is American bred, British trained. Aidan O'Brien who has only a 6% win rate in the BC but has put 30% of his horses in the money over the years.   

△ Teaks North 20-1 
Won 2 G1s this year. I won a decent amount of money on TN when winning the G1 at Monmouth at 7-1 odds. 


R9, BC Juvenile
◎ Hansen 10-1 
Can this horse really be at 10-1?  Crushed fields at Turfway Park including a 114 LSI in maiden race.   Horses name isn't derived from 'mmmm bop' sacchrine-pop band Hanson but owner-breeder Kendall Hansen, who self-named this gray colt. (too much ego??). 

○ Fort Loudon 20-1 
Colt swept the Florida Stallion Series in impressive style including the 1 1/16th mile capper.  Big Drama, Jackson Bend, and Holy Bull are some noted graduates of this series.

▲ Union Rags 2-1 
A perfect 3 for 3 and is favorite to make it 4 for 4.   For those that are fans of more genteel things may appreciate that this horse is owned by the relatives of masterpiece Christina's World painter Andrew Wyeth - those who don't know who that dude is may just want to know "horse go fast" 

△ Dullahan 8-1 
Won at Keeneland despite troubled trip - not sure if colt will get the pace to run at.  For those from the Emerald Isle may already know that a Dullahan is a headless fairie that rides a horse carrying its severed head where the head is supposed to have the color and feel of moldy cheese....creepy...


R10, BC Mile
◎ Byword 12-1 
Juddmonte's second stringer in this spot may actually win this race.  Byword's last race was a win on L'Arc day eve over Cirrus des Aigles who then went on to win the G1 Champion Stakes (British equivalent to the BC Classic).  Juddmonte's first stringer in this spot would be no other than the best horse in the world this year, Frankel.   

○ Turallure 8-1 
Has been in money in each of 4 starts at CD.  Including an impressive win in June when spotting the field 15 lengths and then came back to win by an open margin. Also won the Woodbine Mile in driving style. 

▲Goldikova 7-5 
Goldie is queen of the BC Mile winning this race already 3 times.     Is a creature of habit - ran in same races this year as the mare did last year.Bet against Goldie at your own risk since has been 17 wins in 26 tries including all but 1 in the $$ start in whole career. 

△Gio Ponti

Named after a famous Italian architect. Always seems up to the task from whatever is asked of this 6yo horse and always seems to be in the money - save for 2 performance at the Dubai World Cup...should again be in the money..

Other to Note:  Mr. Commons 20-1   
Sire of Mr. Commons is a BC Mile winner, Artie Schiller...whose name was derived from the bar tender at and owner of the Southside Hotel see for more background.  Has not been worse than 2nd when racing on the turf or going a mile. 


Tomorrow we will take a horse by horse look at the BC Classic and will make some Locks bets.   Good luck!!

Breeder's Cup - The Locks Picks the Winners, Part 1

I've been asked what is bigger...the Kentucky Derby or the Breeder's Cup?....hmmmm...very difficult to create an analogy to other US sports so its a difficult question to answer.   But the Kentucky Derby is the Kentucky Derby and will always be the most important two minutes on the horse racing calendar in the US.  The Kentucky Derby is all about tradition and pageantry and is a culmination of a fever that grabs many racehorse owners and trainers.  The Kentucky Derby has a drink (a fine one at that), the Mint Julep...it has a song, My Old Kentucky Home....it has ladies wearing fancy hats....people throw Kentucky Derby parties.


But the Breeder's Cup is more no nonsense -- its simply great races - essentially 15 championships spread across 2 days.   The Breeder's Cup will decide who are the champions among racehorses.   


This year the Breeder's Cup is back under the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs in Louisville.  
Lets look at the Locks for the first 4 of the 15 races....





Friday, November 4...
Churchill Downs

R5 BC Juvenile Sprint 
◎Secret Circle 6/5
Favorite is too tough to beat...blew out fields in both races...great workouts...

○ Vexor  5-1
Colt's run in the G1 Hopeful is a toss....both wins are impressive....great last work...Locks Speed Index (LSI) in wins is 103, 105...

▲Jake Mo 20-1
Won big then had slow break in last - if can get off clean, will contend



R6 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf 
◎Elusive Kate 2-1
Again favorite is very tuff to beat. 4 wins in last 4 against top 2yo filies...

○ Dear Lavina 30-1
"Boy Meets Grill" master, Bobby Flay, who is this filly's owner was called less kind things in his Entourage cameo but now has a live 30-1 shot in this race 3 wins including close up to 2-1 Elusive Kate in July Deauville race.

▲ Somali Lemonade 3-1
Sounds like a rejected drink idea during a Nantucket Nectar whiteboard session.... will come off the pace training forwardly for this one.

△ Pure Gossip 12-1
Crushes field on soft turf with an "explosive bid"  in Belmont's prep for this race - being a NY bred won't be such a bad thing when slots comes to the Big A.


R7 BC Filly and Mare Sprint
◎ Pomeroys Pistol 6-1
Won last by wide margin in last at same distance at same track was spread 4 wide...

○ Turbulent Descent 6-5
Can't find alot (any) fault in this one...won 3 times at distance (7f which isn't an easy distance to conquer)...only 6-5 odds prevents me from slotting at top.

▲ Great Hot 20-1
Like any other female from Brazil, this filly is impressive...hasn't done much wrong since coming north ....blowout workouts are blazing

△ Switch 3-1
Has only 1 race out of 17 that was out of the money....5 races at distance including 2 wins 2 runner-ups...if switch is flipped on and she runs her best will beat TD


R8 BC Juvenile Fillies 
◎ Grace Hall 4-1
3 fillies with 3 wins in 3 starts - this one is going off at longest odds so like her now better than other 2....good works complement - race form.

○ My Miss Aurelia 5-2
3 for 3 all big wins on the NY circuit.....

▲ Wemissfrankie 4-1
Also 3 for 3 coming off pace in each...will win race if MMA is asked to push a fast pace.

△ Northern Passion 12-1
Would have been my pick in Juv Fillies Turf but trainer Mark Casse opted for this one.  This Cannuck can still contend.

△ Candrea 6-1
If looking for a little more value this one pops the highest LSI in the field...

The Locks for the remaining 11 races will come soon....

Melbourne Cup - The Locks

The Melbourne Cup is called "the race that stops a nation".  As it is on Tuesday afternoon where everyone else in the nation except for those in Melbourne.  A fact I read was that at least 80% of the adult population in Australia has some skin in the game.  The race is 3200m (2 mile) marathon with a total of $6.2mm of prize money being awarded.   Unlike fields in other top races where it is difficult to differentiate horses that haven't done too much wrong in their career, the Melbourne Cup field is somewhat like the historic origins of Australian people.... horses seeking some redemption.  Lets look at 3-1 favorite, Americain, who has run 6 times since winning this race last year.  In these 6 races, the 6yo has 2 wins, 1 third and 3 clunkers where last year had come into the race on a win streak.   So very difficult to back this horse heavily.   Lets look at a few others including 7-1 Jukebox Jury, 6-1 Dunaden and 16-1 Fox Hunt.  


Jukebox Jury is the 5yo winner of this year's Irish St. Leger and a won a 3000m graded race at Deauville in race before that one.  Also has another win and a 3rd in 2011.  Dunaden won the Geelong Cup, an important Melbourne Cup prep, threw in a clunker in the Deauville race that JJ won but otherwise hasn't been out of money in 2011.  Fox Hunt won the German St. Leger and has good form through 2011 albeit in races not as important as Tuesdays.  


The Locks are:


$15 win JJ
$ 8 win FH
$1 exacta JJ, FH, D, A
$1 trifecta JJ, FH, D, A


Good luck!!

The Locks Picks The World's Greatest Bars, Part 4

Today, we explore Tokyo on a bar crawl, er, stroll, down upscale Aoyama Dori, and also a throwback to late 20th century NYC.

Aoyama Dori 青山通り Bar Crawl  Stroll, 
Tokyo, Japan 


Based on the fact that I can speak some Japanese albeit clumsy and Borat-esque , I am not required to concentrate my choice of drinking spots to Roppongi (expat center).   The "foreigners" that descend on Roppongi is a mercurial mix of young servicemen on leave, animation loving nerds, flight crews on layovers, and Joe Middle-America business traveler in casual mode (this is the same guy I see in every airport in the world - balding, overweight, untrendy jeans purchased in 1998, company golf shirt, white sneakers).  Also I've seen one or two 'foreigners' thinking they are all hard core hip-hop, in fact, if they took that act to Brooklyn they'd be laughed at (or beaten) silly.  To be honest, I try to avoid Roppongi and its legion of gaijin knuckleheads like the plague. 


Tokyo has so many bars with a great variety beyond that small section of town.   To get a flavor of an upscale tranche of Tokyo's bars, I head down Aoyama Dori (one of the few roads in Tokyo that actually has a name) which is a stretch that goes from Shibuya 渋谷 to Omotesando 表参道 and has some very chill places to imbibe.   Starting at Shibuya heading towards Omotesando these are some of the bars that are notable when looking for an uptick in drinking experience compared to gaijin gorged Roppongi or the businessmen ビジネスマン  flooded izakayas that ring the train stations: 


Cozmo's 
When I first entered Cozmo's for the first time I felt I had just dropped in to a basement party from my high school days.    Plush couches and sofas, wood (faux wood?) paneling, cocktail table, a painting of Bob Marley, and a duo of DJs working on some turntables.  But I truly was in Tokyo in a bar with a tight-knit crowd.  To start, I couldn't figure who worked at the bar and who was a patron, and that I felt was a good thing as it seemed everyone in the bar even though had come in separately had mad some connection with each other.  Cozmo's does have DJs provide the crowd something interesting to listen to but entertainment isn't just limited to them.  In subsequent visits to the bar the entertainment has ranged from a blues duo supported by a DJs samples to a Bjork-esque shriek singer to a reggae show complete with a DJ, MCs and a dance hall style dancer - good stuff.   The entertainment and draft beers adds to what already would be a cool place.   


Quons       
Bar has a cool vibe to it that you see when you go up a flight of stairs and enter the bar.   Had the movie "Syd and Nancy" projected on the wall with chill lounge tunes being piped in.   The cocktail menu could hold its own at mixology bars in NY or London. Been able to get a version of a Dark & Stormy here.  But the real draw of Quons is the roofdeck terrace -- so its up another flight of stairs to an area that sometimes fills up early -- the terrace has a Singapore/South Pacific feel with its rattan furniture and tropical plants.   You are provided a 'buzzer' to summon a waiter from the bar level to take your order and then retreat back downstairs to have the ordered filled and then bring your drinks back up to you.   Although, the Japanese pride themselves on service, after the 2nd round I felt a bit like Mike Ditka in pre-season training camp during a stadium stairs drill.  So after ordering the next round I went down to pick up my own drink and ended up chumming it up with the friendly bartenders and wait-staff.    The roof deck is definitely a cool place to be in the spring and summer and even in the fall/winter the terrace is kept open as an awning and heaters are brought in. 


Bar Den Inmu 
Across the street from Quons and down in the basement is Bar Den Inmu.... "Den" is the operative word as the place looks like someone's den...but that 'someone' is likely Burt Reynolds' circa 1977.   Shag carpet, purple lights, disco ball, chandeliers....well crafted cocktails can be ordered at the bar but its obvious that the bartenders rarely have someone actually sit at the bar and strike up a conversation.  As most (all) people in the den are in variety of Den/lounge seating - earlier in the evening there are mostly hushed tones but as cocktails shed inhibitions a semi-sense of raucousness reigns.    I ended up in this place a few years ago after seeing a hip-hop band at Shibuya Ax and meeting some "hip-hop" dudes...not sure why this place was chosen but ended up being some fun especially after Jaegermeister shots were downed. 


Nos - Aoyama         
After leaving the Den, you'll head across the Aoyama Dori to Nos - Aoyama.   Getting across the avenue is not as simple as just walking across as you may do in many cities like NY where you can suspend traffic laws and cut across without need of a green light or a cross walk, in Tokyo, it will be a bit rude to do so... but Nos _ Aoyama is close enough even going a slightly circuitous route.   Nos is a 4 level bar that has a bar area as well as many sitting areas and closed off rooms.   I got in here one night and hadn't realized due to my clumsy Japanese that the bar was closing and mistakenly believed that I was asked to come in when I was being told the bar was closed.   Instead of ushering me out, the waiter showed me to the bar but did say that I could only have a single drink.   Again like at Quons and the Den...had a nice strong cocktail and by this time I did realize that the place was actually closing - I finished up my drink quickly and apologized and did return at an earlier hour at a different date.   Some bars in Tokyo like some pubs in the UK are owned by a beverage company this one I believe is the same.  As I ran into the same guy that let me in that night as the matre d' at restaurant/lounge in Ginza.   He remembered me and in fine tradition of strong customder service also what I drank to the surprise of my work colleagues - wondering how the hell I knew this guy.   


Two Rooms        
We now have made our way up Aoyama Dori nearly to Omotesando and we find an elevator up to Two Rooms... you are impressed by the look and feel of the bar when you enter...rich woods on the tables and bar and paintings on the walls.    Most of the conversations that you will hear are in English whether spoken by a true Tokyoite (江戸っ子) or the expat bankers that come for a drink or 2.   The outdoor terrace is a real treat and has views over Omotesando towards Harajuku and Shinjuku.   Its also where you will find Eddie who runs the Two Rooms bar this being after he ran other popular banker night time destinations.  He strike up a conversation with you and make you feel welcome even if you are 7,000 miles from home.  Two Rooms does serve as a perfect spot for a nightcap on this loungy crawl or should I say stroll along Aoyama Dori. 

The Gaf, New York, NY
This bar no longer exists in the location I remember it and was replaced by the people who bought the old sawdusted floored Fitzpatricks and made both spaces into one large bar.  Bars are always changing name and location in NY.  For instance, the Gaf had took over the space that the old classic Pedro's sat on when that bar moved uptown..  The Gaf was as small as a NYbar will get a few spaces at the bar and small tables that ringed the bar. But did have enough space for my favorite bar game ever, what we called Sand Bowling and one the best jukeboxes in its day.   Since it was small it could go barely empty to crushingly crowded in a matter of minutes.  The bartenders were from the old country but they were all young and trying to make a few bucks so they can pay for future further travels.

Place served either as alaunching pad for the evening or last stop before limping home or late night eats at the Viand diner ("Hey Jerkucles where's my omlette?") On school nights it was air-conditioned an oasis away from the stifling walk-ups I lived in.  Crowd usually was limited to young idiot professionals like myself, a little bit older idiot professionals who used
to come to the bar when it was Pedros, and Park Avenue nannies...the nannies always had interesting stories of life on private jets, Hamptons weekends (Bridgehampton not Hampton Bays) and how their employers didn't pay attention to their kids. Whoever wrote that Nannies Diaries book certainly logged many hours at the Gaf.  I have great memories of this bar
including the sweater-switch-er-roo,  St Patricks Day where there were about 20 pipers packed in cranking out the Minstrel Boy, and finishing up our Mardi Gras apartment party there after we were threatened by neighbors to have the cops called on us.  Gaf, I will find you again.