Lets look at the contenders in the BC Classic horse by horse....
#1 Prayer for Relief 30-1 SCRATCHED
Bob Baffert scratched this one...it would have been embarrassing to have the BC Classic to be won by a horse with a path, quite reminiscent of a "Hee-Haw" road show, Iowa, West Virginia, Louisiana and Oklahoma.
#2 Flat Out 6-1
Trainer "Scooter" Dickey was down to a single horse in his barn until Flat Out came along. Coming to race with great form in last 4, 2 wins, 2 2nds and with great workouts at CD. Include in wagers.
#3 Drosselmeyer 15-1
Named after that creepy guy in the cape from the Nutcracker. Belmont Stakes winner but has been somewhat inconsistent since. But, horse is trained by Bill Mott who doesn't send horses to races just to fill fields.
#4 Ruler on Ice 30-1
The pace scenario can easy play out like this....Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve to set pace with Havre de Grace and Game on Dude pressing this pace along - opening up the race for a race running hard at the end which can be this one. Ruler on Ice rewarded me and readers of the Locks nicely in June when this gelding (ouch!) won the Belmont. Bright pink silks won't be hard to miss look for them in the last 200m.
#5 So You Think 5-1
Last year's Melbourne Cup favorite ended up 3rd in that 2 mile race. Went into L'Arc as 2rd favorite and ended up 4th (only out of money finish since 2009) but missed 2nd by less than a length. After the Melbourne Cup was sent to Ireland and the UK to race and either won or placed in multiple G1 races including last months Champion Stakes (UK version of the BC Classic). Only question is whether the horse will handle the dirt since this will be first time being asked to race on the surface. Will need to include in wagers.
#6 Ice Box 30-1
Cannot think about this horse without thinking of the G. Love and Special Sauce Song "Cold Beverage" :
Yeah I'll have a beverage
Just make sure it's cold
Yeah I like cold beverage, yeah
'Cuz I'm feelin' kinda thirsty
Stick it in the fridge, stick it in the fridge,
Horse is still living off its 2nd place finish in the Derby and hasn't done much since kind of like "Big Ben" Gillery and his 9 point game vs Syracuse. Even though I feel a horse coming off the pace like this one does may win...Pass...(the cold beverage to me).
#7 Rattlesnake Bridge 30-1
There actually is a pedestrian bridge in Tucson Arizona that looks like a rattlesnake - someone may have too much time and money on their hands. Could be that this colt's owner Nicholas Brady is spending some of his retirement in Tucson laughing to himself how lucky he is not being Treasury Secretary now rather than during Reagan and Bush 1. As a horse that comes off the pace may be a colt that finds himself in a place finish due to the pace scenario.
#8 Game on Dude 10-1
Horse is partially owned by Joe Torre, longtime thoroughbred fan and Yankees manager. I would love to get the coach's view on if he thinks Mariano Rivera is really the "Best". Even though owned by a baseball coach...the silks of this colt will have a basketball on it. Maybe the silk maker couldn't read Torre's handwriting on the order. After coming on to the Triple Crown trail late (raced in Belmont) in 2010, horse went back home to California for Bob Baffert and has turned into a decent handicap horse including winning the"Big Cap" in March. Think pace scenario or the fact the others may be more talented spells a swing and a miss for this gelding (ouch!).
#9 Stay Thirsty 12-1
Got some feedback from the Dos Equis people on my ideas for their "Most Interesting Man in the World - Stay Thirty, My Friends" ads and they said, having the guy eating a melting ice cream cone while waiting on a line at Six Flags, or waiting on toast and having it pop up and it being slightly burnt, or splitting his pants while filling his car with windshield wiper fluid, just wasn't interesting enough....hmmmm, go figure....I said it ahead of the Ky Derby and I will say it again...this horse is as NY as its owner (Michael Ripole), Turtle from Entourage, Diddy, or a pretzel from a street cart vendor (speaking of pretzels, anyone see my TV appearance on Beer Money ?). Horse has never been out of the money in the state of NY and has never been in the money outside the state of NY. Since race is in the Commonwealth (yeah one of those) of Kentucky and despite a great summer for this colt, will need to pass.
#10 Havre de Grace 3-1
Super racemare has never been out of the money in her career - including 5 wins out of 6 tries in 2011 (missed being 6 for 6 by a nose). Answered question of whether she can compete with the boys by impressively winning the Woodward. As I always look for value in my handicapping, I end up looking at things that would detract me from the favorite and found a couple of things...this mare hasn't won at the distance in 2 tries and hasn't won at the track (came third in last years, BC Ladies Classic). Also I feel that the pace scenario may be that she may in fact get beat in the end by someone coming further off the pace. But can't bet against her - need in the mix.
#11 Headache 30-1
This gray gelding's (ouch!) past performance looks like a Big 10 schedule with stops in Nebraska (yes, they are in the Big 10 now), Illinois and Minnesota. Some interesting things here...can be benefit of pace scenario with its off the pace running style. Already has 3 wins on the track including a race in May albeit an Optional Claiming where the gray one by 7+ and the running line was "as the rider pleased". Horse also has 3 races at 1 1/4m with LSIs in these races of 120, 116, and 100. At 30-1, think there is enough here to take a flyer.
#12 Uncle Mo 5-2
Owner Michael Ripole and his crew won't be hard to miss at Churchill Downs look for the crowd wearing the garish colors of my beloved Mets, New York Blue and Orange. Ripole, the guy who made a ton of $$ by selling VitaminWater to CocaCola, brings this colt back to the twin spires again but this time there is no question about the colt's health as there was when the horse scratched before the Derby when the colt was morning line favorite. But now by all accounts in workouts in the morning and recent form, Uncle Mo is in top shape . As with Havre de Grace, always looking to find dents in the armour of the favorites....for Uncle Mo it is simple...can he get a 1 1/4m? more so can he get a 1 1/4m on the front end with pressure from a horse very similar in To Honor and Serve? these are big questions that at 5/2 I don't want to answer so I am looking elsewhere.
#12 To Honor and Serve 12-1
Like Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve was considered one of the early favorites for 2011 Kentucky Derby. To Honor Serve had a great fall last year but two show finishes in the Derby preps at Gulfstream Park made Bill Mott (never someone to catch Derby Fever) take this colt off the Derby trail. After getting freshened and a leg stretch in the Amsterdam, TH&S has won last 2 impressively. But as with Uncle Mo, I feel that there are too many questions on whether horse can sustain speed against similarly talented speed horses over 1 1/4m distance.
The Locks are:
◎ Flat Out
○ So You Think
▲Havre de Grace
△ Headache
$20 Win #2 Flat Out
$1 exacta saver All over #2
$10 Win #11 Headache
$1 exacta saver all over #11
$1 Exacta Box, #2, #11, #5, #10
Good luck....!!!!
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