There are 2 more races at the end of Friday, day 1. The Fillies and Mare Turf may actually be the best race of the weekend. Top Turf mares from France, UK, Ireland, and the US converge on making it a contentious race and thus giving the betting public decent odds on great horses. The Ladies' Classic also will be one featuring a number of good horses that can find themselves in the winner's circle especially since super-mare Havre de Grace will challenge in Saturday's Classic. Saturday is a day of 9 BC races with a lot of star power including: So You Think, the favorite in last year's Melbourne Cup. Goldikova, going for her 4th! BC Mile win. Union Rags, is 3 for 3 and with a win this weekend can leave Churchill Downs the 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite. Uncle Mo, last year's BC Juvenile winner seeks redemption of missing the Ky. Derby when a morning line favorite by winning the BC Classic. Sarafina, an early favorite in L'Arc aims to finish her season with a win in the BC Turf. Plum Pretty, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, Stay Thirsty, the Travers Stakes winner, Shackleford, the Preakness winner and Ruler on Ice, the Belmont Stakes winner all will be on display.
R9, BC Filly and Mare Turf
◎ Announce 9-2
British bred, French trained....(bad food, good wine??).. consistently placed in 2011...only out of money finish in 2011 was on the soft going...missed by nose in G1 on L'Arc day but seems if had extra furlong that this mare probably would have won. Can't fault close loss in June to horse that ended up winning feature race on British Champions day.
○ Stacelita 2-1
Last year similarly placed in same races that Announce ran in this year. Came to US over summer close third against boys in G1, then won the most important F+M turf race of season (besides the BC) in Beverly D. Also took G1 at Belmont in a bog so can win in all types of weather.
▲ Aruna 6-1
Since coming from France last summer hasn't done worse than 2nd in 7 races including 2 G1s...hasn't raced at this distance so that could be concern but I always like horses that haven't done much wrong in their career like this Graham Motion trained filly. For those keeping score at home, Aruna is a charioteer to the gods according to Hindu scriptures.
△ Dubawi Heights 8-1
Like Aruna hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 7 races which have been the top F+M turf races on the west coast. Has trained well since her G1 win at beginning of October.
R10, BC Ladies Classic
◎
Royal Delta 5/2
Feeling is that Ask the Moon may put enough pressure on favorite Plum Pretty to a
llow Royal Delta to come off pace for win.
Hasn't been out of money since 2009 including last 4 which have been graded stakes.
If pace scenario plays out will come off pace to place. Question is if horse can run well outside of Cali...
Last race ran a huge 120 LSI...Baffert brings filly back to CD where she won the
Oaks in May. Only out of money finish has been in the 1 1/4m Alabama at
Saratoga...Ideal distance for PP is likely 1 1/16...this race is 1 1/8m so
we'll see if she gets caught in pace to allow others run past her in last
100m.
△It's Tricky 5-1
Runs for the Sheihk's Godolphin racing machine. Its Tricky, PP and Royal Delta have been butting heads this summer with each claiming a prize...It's Tricky's was the G1 CCA Oaks. Likely winner of this race will be 3yo filly champion.
Saturday, November 5
R3, BC Marathon
◎Meeznah 12-1
Meeznah has raced against some of the best in Europe going long distances (hasn't run a race less than 1 1/2m since 2009) - the US breeding may help this filly on the dirt. Owner sells high end European/American autos in the UAE...after spending some time driving around Dubai realize this guy has probably done pretty well for himself.
○
Since running in this race last year has run in 5 G1 handicap races seems to be a horse that has its best run late in the race. However, closers don't necessarily mean success at longer distances -- to be successful in a long race as we've seen in the Belmont that it is good for the horse to stay in close contact with the field before making final move rather than trying to make up to much distance at the end. So if Giant Oak can be positioned well throughout the race - may mean success.
▲
Unlike Giant Oak, Birdrun actually likes to be close to the pace thus Velazquez will need to settle horse early to be able to be still around at the end of the race.
R4, BC Juvenile Turf
◎ Animal Spirits 8-1
Bred for turf (Arch is the sire!)....won the Bourbon Stakes has to be worth something extra. I am waiting for someone to come up with a Bourbon and Ginger Stakes. Colt will come in hot in final 200m.
○Finale 5-1
3 for 3 in last 3 including a blow-out win in the Continental Mile at Monmouth...will race up front and if can rate, will win.
▲Lucky Chappy 10-1
Like Animal Spirts was charging hard at the end of the Bourbon Stakes...can't find fault in race as colt was coming off layoff....won previous 2 races "comfortably" ...how else would you want to race when in Rome...
△Shkspeare Shaliyah 15-1
Missing a few vowels in name but not missing a good run in the last 200m....Finale, Majestic City, State of Play, Excaper all may prompt pace opening up race to AS, LC, and this colt.
R5, BC Sprint
◎ Giant Ryan 8-1
Owners may have made a mistake in naming horse...Pat Ryan was a Jet!! Question is how can you overlook a horse on a 6 race win streak? Including winning 2 key sprint races in last 2.
○Force Freeze 10-1
Didn't fare so well when on secondment in Dubai for 2009, 2010 and winter of 2011 but since back in US has shown success.
▲Big Drama 7-2
Hasn't had worse than a place finish since 2009. Popped a Easy Goer-esque 120 Beyer (111 LSI) at Gulfstream Park in January. Horse must have good calf muscles.
△Euroears 4-1....can you bet on a 7yo horse on workouts alone? :46.2 breeze?? Since coming into Baffert's shed has been successful save for a troubled trip in the Vosburgh at Belmont but effort wasn't surprising since Bobby B was kind of like the Mets in that he didn't really have much success in NY this year.
R6, BC Turf Sprint
◎ Regally Ready 3-1
In money in all races including 5 wins expect one at Philly Park - must have got hold of a bad cheese steaks, if there is such a thing.
○ Camp Victory 12-1
Former claimer..has had re-birth since--- in the money in all except in last. Aiming to be the first Virigina-bred to win a BC race.
▲Caracortado 4-1
Say hello to my little friend, Caracortado (or "Scarface" in Spanish) who is another work-out monster :46.00 flat breeze??!! Not really a sprint specialist but may be fast enough to pull this one off. Dam of "Scarface" is Mons Venus which may be a familiar name to those that are Devil Rays, Buccaneer or Lightening fans (or better yet, players of those teams).
△Chamberlain Bridge 5-1
Befitting the name, this 7 year old gelding has scored more (victories, 17) than any other horse in the field. CB likes CD proven by super quick work on the oval and the 4 wins in 6 tries under the Spires.
R7, BC Dirt Mile
◎ Trappe Shot 3-1
Nicholas Brady must be a lot happier in the role of a Breeder's Cup starter owner than being a Sec'y of Treasury having to dig your country out of a $14 trillion hole. Hasn't raced at distance but has won at 1 1/16th and 7f. Been training well after throwing in something of a clunker last month after a bad start at Belmont.
○ Caleb's Posse 5-1
Will get pace to run at with The Factor, Tapizar and Irrefutable tabbed to set the tempo. Beat Uncle Mo by a nose in the King's Bishop at Saratoga.
▲Jersey Town 15-1
Hasn't been out of the money since spring of 2009 including a big LSI 109 in the horse's win in the Cigar Mile. Owned by Canada's king of diamonds...who is called Captain Chaos by his employees - not sure how'd I feel about that nickname..
△Wilburn 4-1
On a 3 race win streak, ... named after '80's-'90s era Redskins d-back Barry Wilburn?? owned by same connections that gave us Rachel Alexandra.
R8, BC Turf
◎ Sarafina 5-2
Seeks redemption from career only clunker thrown in the L'Arc as favorite. After madien has only raced in G1 and G2 company with substantial success...is the horse to beat.
○ Midday 4-1
In 22 career starts, has been in money 19 times including a 2nd place finish on the CD turf. Nearly beat the boys already twice this year in open G1s.
▲ Await the Dawn 5-1
Was on 4 race win streak until ran into Twice Over and Midday in the Juddmonte International in August. Kind of like former Police drummer, Stewart Copeland, this colt is American bred, British trained. Aidan O'Brien who has only a 6% win rate in the BC but has put 30% of his horses in the money over the years.
△ Teaks North 20-1
Won 2 G1s this year. I won a decent amount of money on TN when winning the G1 at Monmouth at 7-1 odds.
R9, BC Juvenile
◎ Hansen 10-1
Can this horse really be at 10-1? Crushed fields at Turfway Park including a 114 LSI in maiden race. Horses name isn't derived from 'mmmm bop' sacchrine-pop band Hanson but owner-breeder Kendall Hansen, who self-named this gray colt. (too much ego??).
○ Fort Loudon 20-1
Colt swept the Florida Stallion Series in impressive style including the 1 1/16th mile capper. Big Drama, Jackson Bend, and Holy Bull are some noted graduates of this series.
▲ Union Rags 2-1
A perfect 3 for 3 and is favorite to make it 4 for 4. For those that are fans of more genteel things may appreciate that this horse is owned by the relatives of masterpiece Christina's World painter Andrew Wyeth - those who don't know who that dude is may just want to know "horse go fast"
△ Dullahan 8-1
Won at Keeneland despite troubled trip - not sure if colt will get the pace to run at. For those from the Emerald Isle may already know that a Dullahan is a headless fairie that rides a horse carrying its severed head where the head is supposed to have the color and feel of moldy cheese....creepy...
R10, BC Mile
◎ Byword 12-1
Juddmonte's second stringer in this spot may actually win this race. Byword's last race was a win on L'Arc day eve over Cirrus des Aigles who then went on to win the G1 Champion Stakes (British equivalent to the BC Classic). Juddmonte's first stringer in this spot would be no other than the best horse in the world this year, Frankel.
○ Turallure 8-1
Has been in money in each of 4 starts at CD. Including an impressive win in June when spotting the field 15 lengths and then came back to win by an open margin. Also won the Woodbine Mile in driving style.
▲Goldikova 7-5
Goldie is queen of the BC Mile winning this race already 3 times. Is a creature of habit - ran in same races this year as the mare did last year.Bet against Goldie at your own risk since has been 17 wins in 26 tries including all but 1 in the $$ start in whole career.
△Gio Ponti
Runs for the Sheihk's Godolphin racing machine. Its Tricky, PP and Royal Delta have been butting heads this summer with each claiming a prize...It's Tricky's was the G1 CCA Oaks. Likely winner of this race will be 3yo filly champion.
Saturday, November 5
R3, BC Marathon
◎Meeznah 12-1
Meeznah has raced against some of the best in Europe going long distances (hasn't run a race less than 1 1/2m since 2009) - the US breeding may help this filly on the dirt. Owner sells high end European/American autos in the UAE...after spending some time driving around Dubai realize this guy has probably done pretty well for himself.
○
Giant Oak 9-2
▲
Birdrun 7-2
Unlike Giant Oak, Birdrun actually likes to be close to the pace thus Velazquez will need to settle horse early to be able to be still around at the end of the race.
R4, BC Juvenile Turf
◎ Animal Spirits 8-1
Bred for turf (Arch is the sire!)....won the Bourbon Stakes has to be worth something extra. I am waiting for someone to come up with a Bourbon and Ginger Stakes. Colt will come in hot in final 200m.
○Finale 5-1
3 for 3 in last 3 including a blow-out win in the Continental Mile at Monmouth...will race up front and if can rate, will win.
▲Lucky Chappy 10-1
Like Animal Spirts was charging hard at the end of the Bourbon Stakes...can't find fault in race as colt was coming off layoff....won previous 2 races "comfortably" ...how else would you want to race when in Rome...
△Shkspeare Shaliyah 15-1
Missing a few vowels in name but not missing a good run in the last 200m....Finale, Majestic City, State of Play, Excaper all may prompt pace opening up race to AS, LC, and this colt.
R5, BC Sprint
◎ Giant Ryan 8-1
Owners may have made a mistake in naming horse...Pat Ryan was a Jet!! Question is how can you overlook a horse on a 6 race win streak? Including winning 2 key sprint races in last 2.
○Force Freeze 10-1
Didn't fare so well when on secondment in Dubai for 2009, 2010 and winter of 2011 but since back in US has shown success.
▲Big Drama 7-2
Hasn't had worse than a place finish since 2009. Popped a Easy Goer-esque 120 Beyer (111 LSI) at Gulfstream Park in January. Horse must have good calf muscles.
△Euroears 4-1....can you bet on a 7yo horse on workouts alone? :46.2 breeze?? Since coming into Baffert's shed has been successful save for a troubled trip in the Vosburgh at Belmont but effort wasn't surprising since Bobby B was kind of like the Mets in that he didn't really have much success in NY this year.
R6, BC Turf Sprint
◎ Regally Ready 3-1
In money in all races including 5 wins expect one at Philly Park - must have got hold of a bad cheese steaks, if there is such a thing.
○ Camp Victory 12-1
Former claimer..has had re-birth since--- in the money in all except in last. Aiming to be the first Virigina-bred to win a BC race.
▲Caracortado 4-1
Say hello to my little friend, Caracortado (or "Scarface" in Spanish) who is another work-out monster :46.00 flat breeze??!! Not really a sprint specialist but may be fast enough to pull this one off. Dam of "Scarface" is Mons Venus which may be a familiar name to those that are Devil Rays, Buccaneer or Lightening fans (or better yet, players of those teams).
△Chamberlain Bridge 5-1
Befitting the name, this 7 year old gelding has scored more (victories, 17) than any other horse in the field. CB likes CD proven by super quick work on the oval and the 4 wins in 6 tries under the Spires.
R7, BC Dirt Mile
◎ Trappe Shot 3-1
Nicholas Brady must be a lot happier in the role of a Breeder's Cup starter owner than being a Sec'y of Treasury having to dig your country out of a $14 trillion hole. Hasn't raced at distance but has won at 1 1/16th and 7f. Been training well after throwing in something of a clunker last month after a bad start at Belmont.
○ Caleb's Posse 5-1
Will get pace to run at with The Factor, Tapizar and Irrefutable tabbed to set the tempo. Beat Uncle Mo by a nose in the King's Bishop at Saratoga.
▲Jersey Town 15-1
Hasn't been out of the money since spring of 2009 including a big LSI 109 in the horse's win in the Cigar Mile. Owned by Canada's king of diamonds...who is called Captain Chaos by his employees - not sure how'd I feel about that nickname..
△Wilburn 4-1
On a 3 race win streak, ... named after '80's-'90s era Redskins d-back Barry Wilburn?? owned by same connections that gave us Rachel Alexandra.
R8, BC Turf
◎ Sarafina 5-2
Seeks redemption from career only clunker thrown in the L'Arc as favorite. After madien has only raced in G1 and G2 company with substantial success...is the horse to beat.
○ Midday 4-1
In 22 career starts, has been in money 19 times including a 2nd place finish on the CD turf. Nearly beat the boys already twice this year in open G1s.
▲ Await the Dawn 5-1
Was on 4 race win streak until ran into Twice Over and Midday in the Juddmonte International in August. Kind of like former Police drummer, Stewart Copeland, this colt is American bred, British trained. Aidan O'Brien who has only a 6% win rate in the BC but has put 30% of his horses in the money over the years.
△ Teaks North 20-1
Won 2 G1s this year. I won a decent amount of money on TN when winning the G1 at Monmouth at 7-1 odds.
R9, BC Juvenile
◎ Hansen 10-1
Can this horse really be at 10-1? Crushed fields at Turfway Park including a 114 LSI in maiden race. Horses name isn't derived from 'mmmm bop' sacchrine-pop band Hanson but owner-breeder Kendall Hansen, who self-named this gray colt. (too much ego??).
○ Fort Loudon 20-1
Colt swept the Florida Stallion Series in impressive style including the 1 1/16th mile capper. Big Drama, Jackson Bend, and Holy Bull are some noted graduates of this series.
▲ Union Rags 2-1
A perfect 3 for 3 and is favorite to make it 4 for 4. For those that are fans of more genteel things may appreciate that this horse is owned by the relatives of masterpiece Christina's World painter Andrew Wyeth - those who don't know who that dude is may just want to know "horse go fast"
△ Dullahan 8-1
Won at Keeneland despite troubled trip - not sure if colt will get the pace to run at. For those from the Emerald Isle may already know that a Dullahan is a headless fairie that rides a horse carrying its severed head where the head is supposed to have the color and feel of moldy cheese....creepy...
R10, BC Mile
◎ Byword 12-1
Juddmonte's second stringer in this spot may actually win this race. Byword's last race was a win on L'Arc day eve over Cirrus des Aigles who then went on to win the G1 Champion Stakes (British equivalent to the BC Classic). Juddmonte's first stringer in this spot would be no other than the best horse in the world this year, Frankel.
○ Turallure 8-1
Has been in money in each of 4 starts at CD. Including an impressive win in June when spotting the field 15 lengths and then came back to win by an open margin. Also won the Woodbine Mile in driving style.
▲Goldikova 7-5
Goldie is queen of the BC Mile winning this race already 3 times. Is a creature of habit - ran in same races this year as the mare did last year.Bet against Goldie at your own risk since has been 17 wins in 26 tries including all but 1 in the $$ start in whole career.
△Gio Ponti
Named after a famous Italian architect. Always seems up to the task from whatever is asked of this 6yo horse and always seems to be in the money - save for 2 performance at the Dubai World Cup...should again be in the money..
Other to Note: Mr. Commons 20-1
Sire of Mr. Commons is a BC Mile winner, Artie Schiller...whose name was derived from the bar tender at and owner of the Southside Hotel see for more background. Has not been worse than 2nd when racing on the turf or going a mile.
Tomorrow we will take a horse by horse look at the BC Classic and will make some Locks bets. Good luck!!
Sire of Mr. Commons is a BC Mile winner, Artie Schiller...whose name was derived from the bar tender at and owner of the Southside Hotel see for more background. Has not been worse than 2nd when racing on the turf or going a mile.
Tomorrow we will take a horse by horse look at the BC Classic and will make some Locks bets. Good luck!!
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