2011 Japan Cup Dirt - The Locks Picks the Winners

Last week was the Japan Cup, this weekend is the Japan Cup Dirt which is another Grade 1 race worth over $2 million.  Race is run at the Hanshin race track near Osaka going 1 1/8m (1800m). Although most JRA races are run on the turf, there are still some very good horses in this race. Including the runner -up in the Dubai World Cup and the winner of this race last year in Transcend.  Transcend rebounded well from that race with 1 win and 1 second since coming back from the UAE. Transcend hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 8 races.  Espoir City won this race in 2009 and has competed in the BC Classic. EC loves the distance with 6 wins and 1 second in 7 races and likes Hanshin with a perfect 2 for 2 record on the track.  Transcend and Espoir City will be the top 2 favorites and they will be difficult to overlook.  However, will need to consider others as well as pace will be a definite factor in the race.  


Tosho Freak will set the pace with Transcend and Espoir City wanting to chase the pace.  Depending on how fast Tosho Freak will go will set the fate for Transcend and Espoir City.  If setting too fast fractions then look for horses coming off the pace like Nihonpiro Ours  or Miracle Legend.  Nihonpiro Ours has not been out of the money in its 13 race career including 2 wins on the Hanshin dirt.   Had the fastest last 3 f time in the key Miyako Stakes in last race.  Miracle Legend will come off the pace and will benefit from fast fractions from the leaders.  Miracle Legend has 8 wins in its 15 race career including winning last 3 all at 1800m...actually all of this 4yo fillies wins have come at 1800m.   


The Locks are:


◎ #12 Nihonpiro Ours ニホンピロアワーズ
○  #11 Miracle Legend ミラクルレジェンド
▲ #16 Transcend トランセンド
△ #6 Espoir City エスポワールシチー


$1 Exacta #12 over all

$1 Trifecta Box 12.11.16.6

The Locks - Takarazuka Kinen (宝塚記念)

In Japan the importance of Grade/Group 1 races should not be underestimated - there are only 22 on the calendar as such is true rareified air.


The Takarazuka Kinen is only 1 of 3 Group 1 races at a Classic distances for older horse.....so it should feature the best horses in all of Japan.   Last year's winner, Nakayama Festa, later in the year nailed the runner-up place in the L'Arc de Triomphe, France's biggest race.  In the past 5 years, this race has featured 3 JRA Horse of the Year.  The Tarakazuka Kinen is a 2200m race run at the Hanshin race course near Osaka and Kobe.


Super-race mare Buena Vista ブエナビスタ who has not had an out of the money finish in her career except for an 8th place finish in the Dubai World Cup.  As mentioned before Japan has only 22 Grade 1 races on the calendar and Buena Vista has competed in 10 of them in her career.   Was runner-up in this race last year and should again contend this year.


To the Glory トゥザグローリー went off as favorite in the Tenno Sho Spring but set and pressed the pace only to lose steam and end up a well beaten and disappointing 13th.  But still To the Glory is perfect 2 for 2 at 2200m including a G2 win in February.   Also the 4yo colt is a perfect 3 for 3 at Hanshin.   Hoping due to the disappointing finish in last race, bettors will avoid To The Glory and increasing the odds on a solid performer.


Rulership ルーラーシップ also has found success at Hanshin with 3 wins in 4 tries.   Rulership hasn't run at 2200m but at 2000m and 2400m has run 6 times with 4 wins, 1 second and close 5th in last year's Japan Derby.    WIll race off the pace which may be a good running style since there is expecting to be some pace in the race with Captain Thule, Earnestly, Asakusa Kings, Heart Beat Song all wanting to be on or close to the pace.   


The live long shot is Beat Black ビートブラック.  BB has 2 in the money finishes out of last 5 races which you would suspect would be off form....but these finishes are both wins coming at Hanshin at 2400m.  Two of BBs last out-of-the money races were at 3200m+ and the 3rd out of money race in last 5 was when BB set fast fractions in the Grade 2 Nikkei Shinshin Hai at Kyoto and was tired out in the end so there are some excuses for its somewhat off form.  Overall BB has 3 wins and 1 show in 4 starts at Hanshin.   Will be able to get long odds on this 4yo colt because hasn't been consistent when racing in Group stakes company.


Keeping it under 10,000円　of bets lets go:


Rulership over All 100円　exacta with an exacta saver All over Rulership.
500円　Win/Place on Beat Black.
200円　Quinella Place bet on Rulership, Beat Black, Buena Vista and To the Glory.
200円　Exacta R, BB, BV, TTG
100円　Trifecta R, BB, BV, TTG


1900 + 1900 + 1000 + 1200 + 1200 + 2400 = 9600円。。。