Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) - The Locks Picks the Winners

Sunday is Christmas and Santa will be bringing all good little boys and girls presents.  Over Christmas Eve night it will be already Christmas in Nakayama, Japan which is the site of the Japanese Grand Prix which is almost more power packed than the Japan Cup.   Orfevre (オルフェーヴル), Hiruno D'Amour, Earnestly (アーネストリー) are added from the Japan Cup field to round out the entries.   Orvevre hasn't raced since capturing the Japanese Triple Crown.  Hiruno D'Amour is back in Japan after racing in the L'Arc and Earnestly after winning a couple of graded stakes over the summer is back from a lack-luster Tenno Sho.  


So Christmas will be celebrated not only with Santa-san and eating Kentucky Fried Chicken but with some high quality horse racing. 


The Locks are....


I am going to take a stand against the favorite 2-1 Orvevre, the winner of the Japanese Triple Crown.  Orvevre has yet to race against older horses.  And the 3yos that last raced in the Japan Cup didn't fare very well. Win Variation (ウインバリアシオン ) could only manage a 5th place showing in the Japan Cup after growing tired in the stretch.  Win Variation probably is the 2nd best 3yo this year with place showings behind Orvevre in the Japanese Derby and Japanese St. Leger.  


Tosen Jordan is the winner of the Tenno Sho winner also was runner up in the Japan Cup.   Has 3 wins out of 4 tries on the Nakayama course...only loss was last year in this same race...but last year set pace and tired in stretch...probably wont repeat strategy this year.


Buena Vista is coming off victory in the Japan Cup and is such a consistent horse ,17 1st or 2nd place showings out of 22 tries including a 2nd in this race in last 2 years.


Hiruno D'Amour is a horse that is capable of winning this race and at 40-1, I give it a shot.  Has a 2nd place finish as 6th favorite in a Grade 1 at Nakayama before.   Has had time coming back from France and running in the L'Arc to be fit for this race.


 Victoire Pisa also is capable of winning this race....actually any race in the world after winning the Dubai World Cup but fitness is in question as seen by poor showing in Japan Cup.  But can't get past fact that has raced 4 times at Nakayama and has won 4 times....including winning this race last year.  


◎ Tosen Jordanトーセンジョーダン 16-1 
○ Buena Vista ブエナビスタ  4.3-1
▲Hiruno D'Amourヒルノダムール 41-1
△ Victoire Pisaヴィクトワールピサ 12.6-1


Lets win and exacta saver on Tosen Jordan.
Lets box the 4 horse in exactas and trifectas


Good luck....and most of all Merry Christmas!!!

2011 Japan Cup Dirt - The Locks Picks the Winners

Last week was the Japan Cup, this weekend is the Japan Cup Dirt which is another Grade 1 race worth over $2 million.  Race is run at the Hanshin race track near Osaka going 1 1/8m (1800m). Although most JRA races are run on the turf, there are still some very good horses in this race. Including the runner -up in the Dubai World Cup and the winner of this race last year in Transcend.  Transcend rebounded well from that race with 1 win and 1 second since coming back from the UAE. Transcend hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 8 races.  Espoir City won this race in 2009 and has competed in the BC Classic. EC loves the distance with 6 wins and 1 second in 7 races and likes Hanshin with a perfect 2 for 2 record on the track.  Transcend and Espoir City will be the top 2 favorites and they will be difficult to overlook.  However, will need to consider others as well as pace will be a definite factor in the race.  


Tosho Freak will set the pace with Transcend and Espoir City wanting to chase the pace.  Depending on how fast Tosho Freak will go will set the fate for Transcend and Espoir City.  If setting too fast fractions then look for horses coming off the pace like Nihonpiro Ours  or Miracle Legend.  Nihonpiro Ours has not been out of the money in its 13 race career including 2 wins on the Hanshin dirt.   Had the fastest last 3 f time in the key Miyako Stakes in last race.  Miracle Legend will come off the pace and will benefit from fast fractions from the leaders.  Miracle Legend has 8 wins in its 15 race career including winning last 3 all at 1800m...actually all of this 4yo fillies wins have come at 1800m.   


The Locks are:


◎ #12 Nihonpiro Ours ニホンピロアワーズ
○  #11 Miracle Legend ミラクルレジェンド
▲ #16 Transcend トランセンド
△ #6 Espoir City エスポワールシチー


$1 Exacta #12 over all

$1 Trifecta Box 12.11.16.6

2011 Japan Cup - The Locks Picks The Winners

Sunday is the Japan Cup.   Its one of the world's premier races along with the BC Classic, Prix L'Arc de Triomphe, and the Dubai World Cup.   As being one of the world's top races, the field features some of the best.   L'Arc de Triomphe winner, Danedream and the Dubai World Cup winner, Victorie Pisa will line up.   The field also featuers Tosen Jordan is the recent winner of the Tenno Sho Autumn in record time and Rose Kingdom, once Japan's 2yo champion and last year's winner of this race.   Another top contender is Buena Vista is a horse that has gone off as favorite and has finished in the money in each of its 19 starts on Japanese soil except one.

The Locks likes:

Rose Kingdom won this race via DQ last year and this year is going off 9th favorite despite a recent 2400m win.   RK has been successful at Tokyo Race Course and has never been out of the money going 2400m.   Buena Vista is the most consistent horse at the top level in Japan - won the race last year but was DQd.  Win Variation has won at distance and the track but has a couple of runner-up finishes in top G1 races.   Pelusa has top jock Nori-san and comes off a show finish in the Tenno Sho Autumn with a top closing time. 

The Locks are:

◎ ＃３ Rose Kingdom ロースキングドム

○ #2 Buena Vista ブエナビスタ

▲ #12 Win Variation ワインバリアシオン

△ #7 Pelusa ペルーサ

$1 Exacta #3 over all

$1 Exacta All over #3

$1 Exacta Box #3,#2,#12,#7

$1 Trifecta Box #3,#2,#12,#7

Good Luck...Ganbatte!!

Queen Elizabeth II Cup Kyoto - The Locks Picks the WInner

The QEII Cup in Kyoto represents the best of the fillies and mares in Japan.  Race is run over 2200m (same distance as BC F+M Turf).   


Last year the race was won by European filly, Snow Fairy, again Snow Fairy will contend in the race. Snow Fairy is coming into the race with place and show finishes in some of the major races in Europe(L'Arc, Irish Champion Stakes, British Champion Stakes) against open fields.  It could be possible that these races have taken their toll. Also the trainer this week discussed how she may not be her fittest after her time quarantine.  


Dancing Rain also invades from Europe and comes in with a similar resume that Snow Fairy had last year.   Dancing Rain could be Europe's best 3yo filly with a win in the English Oaks.  DR also won the German Oaks and the top fillies and mare race on British Champions Day.  Is one of the few horses in race that has raced and won at 2200m.  


Italian Red will go off as either 3 or 4th favorite.  IR has 8 wins in 18 races including coming off 3 straight graded stakes wins.  Although the 5yo mare hasn't raced at 2200m has good final furlong times that show she may want the extra distance.  Threw a clunker at Kyoto last year but now is better form.


Aventura won at this course last month in a Grade 1 race and comes in on a 3 win streak also.   Feel that the extra furlong may be an issue as she did not sport the best closing times (although win) in last 2 races.


Whale Capture has never been out of the money in her 10 races.   3rd in the Japanese Oaks going 2400m  so this distance shouldn't be issue.  In 4 races at the G1 level hasn't broken through yet to win so maybe the bridesmaid but not the bride in this one too. 


Here are the Locks:

◎2 Italian Red イタリアンレッド
○14Dancing Rain ダンシングレイン
▲18Snow Fairy スノーフェアリー
△1 Aventura アヴェンチュラ
☆3 Whale Capture  ホエールキャプチャ


１０００円　単勝 Win　＃２
５００円　単勝 Win　＃１４
１００円　馬単 Exacta　＃２、＃１４、＃１８、＃１
１００円　3連単　Trifecta ＃２、＃１４、＃１８、＃１

１０００＋５００＋１００x１２＋１００x２４＝５１００円

Tenno Sho Autumn - The Locks

The Tenno Sho is the Emperor's Cup and there is one in the Spring and one in the Autumn.  The Spring version is a 2 mile marathon while the Autumn version is a classic 1 1/4m race run at Tokyo's main racecourse.   This year features a full field of 18 and each one has won at least one graded stakes with 6 horses winning at least 1 grade 1.   With the limited number of graded stakes each year in Japan, it speaks volumes of the quality of the field with every great horse running except for the 3yos that ran in the Japanese St. Leger recently and Victorie Pisa who is training up to the Japan Cup.


With the large field and knowing the penchant to the pool will bet heavy on the favorite, the other horses are going to go off at big odds.   The horse I like Tosen Jordan is right now at 150-1 odds!!!! This is a horse that has 8 wins in 15 tries including a recently winning a G2 going 1m 1/4.  TJ likes the Tokyo oval with 2 wins and 2nd in 3 races.   Dark Shadow 10-1 is 3 out of the last 4 races and 4 for 4 on the Tokyo race course.  Earnestly is the heavy favorite 1.7-1 and deserves the favoritism after coming off 2 big wins but can't past the fact of the low odds and the fact the horse is 0 for 3 on this course.  Buena Vista 7-1 won this race last year and has been on a string of place finishes so needs to be in the mix.  


◎ Tosen Jordanトーセンジョーダン
○ Dark Shadow ダークシャドウ
▲Earnestly アーネストリー
△Buena Vistaブエナビスタ


Also note you now can bet on the big JRA races on Twinspires.com so if you haven't opened an account here in more reason to do so. 


The Locks are:
$15 Win Tosen Jordan  
$5 Place Tosen Jordan
$8 Win Dark Shadow 
$1 Exacta Box TJ, DS, E, BV
$1 Trifecta Box TJ,DS, E,BV
$3 Quinella Place TJ, DS, E, BV
$2 Trio TJ, DS,E, BV


Total Bets = $15 + $5 + $8 + $12 + $24 + $18 + $6 = $88


１５００円　単勝　＃１２
５００円　　複勝　＃１２
８００円　単勝　＃７
１００円　馬単　＃１２，＃７，＃５、＃１８
１００円　3連単　＃１２、＃７、＃５、＃１８
３００円　ワイド　＃１２、＃７、＃５、＃１８
２００円　3連複　＃１２、＃７、＃５、＃１８


Epilogue


Smoked this race....had winner and runner up to give me the exacta.   Came 1/2 length away from a huge trifecta which would have made this my biggest payday on a single race but did ok anyways...not sure of the breakout but my twinspires account was up about $900 on $64 of bets...couldn't bet the Trio and the Quinella Place which are unique to JRA betting.  
If I bet via JRA I would have had won:  49,950 + 4,250 + 23,560 + 7,560 = 85,320 or about $1,150.  The trifecta if I scored that would have been another $1000+.