Friday, October 28, 2011

Tenno Sho Autumn - The Locks


The Tenno Sho is the Emperor's Cup and there is one in the Spring and one in the Autumn.  The Spring version is a 2 mile marathon while the Autumn version is a classic 1 1/4m race run at Tokyo's main racecourse.   This year features a full field of 18 and each one has won at least one graded stakes with 6 horses winning at least 1 grade 1.   With the limited number of graded stakes each year in Japan, it speaks volumes of the quality of the field with every great horse running except for the 3yos that ran in the Japanese St. Leger recently and Victorie Pisa who is training up to the Japan Cup.


With the large field and knowing the penchant to the pool will bet heavy on the favorite, the other horses are going to go off at big odds.   The horse I like Tosen Jordan is right now at 150-1 odds!!!! This is a horse that has 8 wins in 15 tries including a recently winning a G2 going 1m 1/4.  TJ likes the Tokyo oval with 2 wins and 2nd in 3 races.   Dark Shadow 10-1 is 3 out of the last 4 races and 4 for 4 on the Tokyo race course.  Earnestly is the heavy favorite 1.7-1 and deserves the favoritism after coming off 2 big wins but can't past the fact of the low odds and the fact the horse is 0 for 3 on this course.  Buena Vista 7-1 won this race last year and has been on a string of place finishes so needs to be in the mix.  


◎ Tosen Jordanトーセンジョーダン
○ Dark Shadow ダークシャドウ
▲Earnestly アーネストリー
△Buena Vistaブエナビスタ


Also note you now can bet on the big JRA races on Twinspires.com so if you haven't opened an account here in more reason to do so. 


The Locks are:
$15 Win Tosen Jordan  
$5 Place Tosen Jordan
$8 Win Dark Shadow 
$1 Exacta Box TJ, DS, E, BV
$1 Trifecta Box TJ,DS, E,BV
$3 Quinella Place TJ, DS, E, BV
$2 Trio TJ, DS,E, BV


Total Bets = $15 + $5 + $8 + $12 + $24 + $18 + $6 = $88


1500円 単勝 #12
500円  複勝 #12
800円 単勝 #7
100円 馬単 #12,#7,#5、#18
100円 3連単 #12、#7、#5、#18
300円 ワイド #12、#7、#5、#18
200円 3連複 #12、#7、#5、#18


Epilogue


Smoked this race....had winner and runner up to give me the exacta.   Came 1/2 length away from a huge trifecta which would have made this my biggest payday on a single race but did ok anyways...not sure of the breakout but my twinspires account was up about $900 on $64 of bets...couldn't bet the Trio and the Quinella Place which are unique to JRA betting.  
If I bet via JRA I would have had won:  49,950 + 4,250 + 23,560 + 7,560 = 85,320 or about $1,150.  The trifecta if I scored that would have been another $1000+. 


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