Lets take a quick look at the field:
Workforce 9-1....Winner of this race last year. Actually coming to race in maybe better form than last year. It would be Juddmonte's year to win the l'Arc with a horse thats not even its best.
St. Nicholoas Abbey 33-1....hasn't raced out of money this year. Has a G1 win and a race over the course in 2011 as well.
Silver Pond 150-1....Has raced in top company but just not winning but does have a 2011 G2 victory.
Hiruno D'Amour 14-1....Despite the kinda French name is a horse from Japan. Its a good year for racing for Japanese keiba (horseracing)....Japanese horses went 1-2 in the Dubai World Cup in March which also is considered the most prestigious race of the year. H D'A won the Tenno Sho Haru which is the top Spring race for older horses in Japan and then came to Longchamp and almost upset favorite Sarafina in a prep for this race.
Nakayama Festa 33-1....If you can get last year's runner up in this race for 33-1 you know its a competitive race. After last years race..has only raced twice, a real clunker in the Japan Cup and a 4th in the same prep that Sarafina, St Nich Abbey and Hiruno D'Amour ran in.
So You Think 11-2...After being the beaten favorite in Australia's top race, the Melbourne Cup was shipped to the Ireland/UK, where the New Zealand bred colt has become a top handicap horse. Has 4 wins and a 2nd in 5 tries all with last 4 in G1 company. But horses best distance may be at 10f rather than the 12f that this race is. Actually has never raced at 12f.
Sarafina 5-1...after coming in 3rd in this race last year behind Workforce and Nakayama Festa is now considered France's best handicap horse with 3 wins in 4 tries this year all in group stakes company. Has never raced out of the money in its 9 race career. Won key prep for this race.
Snow Fairy 14-1...Amazing to think Godolphin won't field a horse in this race as such Frankie Dettori is free to ride this 4yo filly. Has raced in top company this year although without a victory since its G1 wins last fall in Kyoto and Hong Kong for this horse that is normally UK based.
Treasure Beach 33-1...Winner of the G1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington also won the Irish Derby..This 3yo just missed winning the Epsom Derby...and still going off at 33-1. Odds maybe long because at only race at Longchamp came in 4th behind other l'Arc contenders Meandre and Reliable Man.
Meandre 12-1...Battling with Reliable Man for France's top 3yo. Has 3 wins and 3 seconds in 6 starts this year including 3 races on same course going same distance.
Masked Marvel 14-1...Coming off a win in the St. Leger. This 3yo colt may actually want the race longer than 12f....only race at 12f was the Epsom Derby that MM was well beaten.
Reliable Man 12-1...Won the French Derby..only blemish on this 3yo colt's 5 race career was loss to Meandre at Longchamp on Bastille Day.
Shareta 80-1....Also a winner on same course going same distance that was on Bastille Day but it was only a listed stakes going up against other 3yo fillies.
Testosterone 66-1....despite the name is a 3yo filly. Never out of the money in 6 starts including 4 races at Longchamp. In a prep for this race in September...beat Shareta but was well beaten by Galikova.
Danedream 20-1...another 3yo filly...Danedream is German bred...just won an open G1 in Germany in September. Raced last year on l'Arc day at Longchamp and was well beaten 6th in a 2yo stakes...horse that was 5th in that race was Galikova.
Galikova 8-1...Goldikova's little sister is a 3yo filly who since its clunker in the last years Longchamp race has won 4 out 5 including a victory on the course at same distance last month. Although seems a bit short-priced compared to other horses.
Other facts on the field...
* 12 of the 16 have already won a Grade/Group 1 race - only Nakayama Festa, Silver Pond, Testosterone, Shareta have not.
* Workforce, Sarafina, Galikova, Shareta, Meandre, Reliable Man have all won at Longchamp going 12f.
* 3yos have won 7 out of the last 8 l'Arc...14 out of the last 17.
* Only twice in last 12 years has the race been won by an owner other than an Arab royal or Michael Tabor. Workforce, St Nicholas Abbey, So You Think, Sarafina, Treasure Beach, Shareta all are owned by royals or Michael Tabor.
* Only once in last 17 years has a filly/mare won the race.
The Locks....
This week while in London put 2 win bets in on Hiruno D'Amour and Treasure Beach. Still like those horses but in putting my money down now would go.
$15 Win Meandre
$15 Win Reliable Man
$1 exacta Meandre, Reliable Man, Treasure Beach, Hiruno D'Amour.
Merde!!! Good Luck!!
No comments:
Post a Comment