Hurricane Provisions

With Hurricane Irene bearing down on the New York area and likely to make landfall on the south-shore of Long Island about right exactly where I am right now.    


To be proper provisioned for a hurricane you need a few things:

• Water - bottled sin-gas --- check
• Batteries - go heavy on the Cs and Ds -- check
• Generator - can't miss SportsCenter -- check
• Non-perishable food - is there any other kind? Pop-tarts and Rice Krispie treats and baked beans are my favorites -- check
• Flash lights - need to find snacks at night -- check

But the real provision you will need are the ingredients for a Dark and Stormy cocktail and they are:

• Goslings Black Seal Bermuda Black Rum
• Barritts Ginger Beer
• Cubed ice
• Pint Glass
• Slice of lime, sprig of mint - not necessary

Divvy up your glass between Rum and Ginger beer to your taste...

You may be able to get away with another brand of ginger beer such as Gosling's makes their own but its ginger beer not ginger ale.  Huge difference.  

If you go with another brand of rum then its simply not a Dark and Stormy but its something that may be tasty and get you through the storm.     As I am on Long Island and close proximity to a fair share of knuckleheads, I heard a great quote at the beverage store when picking up my ginger beer yesterday....."yeah I'm not evacuating no where, I will be drinking so when they find my body in the Great South Bay I will be already preserved."

Be safe and enjoy!!

2011 Travers Stakes Day Undercard - The Locks

Big race days are a treat for the handicapper.   First, you get alot of what I would call "dumb money".   That's the money that likes the sentimental story, the female jockey, the pretty silks, the funny name, the favorites.   


So if you actually done your homework, you can certainly find value on big race days.  


Also on big race days, you not only have the "big race" but will have several other stakes and this Saturday is no exception.   There are 4 other Graded Stakes on the card.


The undercard includes:

• The Ballston Spa, Grade 2, for fillies and mares 3yo+ going 1 1/16m on the turf
• The Victory Ride, Grade 3, for 3yo fillies going 6 furlongs on the dirt
• The Ballerina, Grade 1, for fillies and mares 3yo+ going 7 furlongs on the dirt
• The Kings Bishop, Grade 1, for 3yos, going 7 furlongs on the dirt

Caveat: Handicapping right now is assuming that Hurricane Irene will not impact the track/course

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR082711USA-EQB.html

The Ballston Spa

Romoacaca (7/2) comes into the race on a 5 race win streak and hasn't been out of the money since running 4th in the Beverly D last August.  Daveron (3/1) a German-bred has done well since shifting to Graham Motion's shed.  Has 3 wins/1 2nd on 4 tries at distance.  Aviate (4/1) was outgunned in last 2 which were G1s but dropping slightly in class may help. Has worked well at the Spa to prep for this one.  Trix in the City (12-1) could steal the race on the front end but seems to have distance limitation at 1 mile.  0 for 3 at 1 1/16th.  

$10 Win Aviate

$1 Exacta All over Aviate

$2 Exacta Romoacaca, Daveron, Aviate

$4 Win Trix in the City

The Victory Ride

Jealous Girl (3-1) is a perfect 4 for 4 after her failed debut.  Even though been racing on a lower circuit speed translates...108/110 Locks Speed Index in last 2.  Question is how she will do with many horses in field wanting the lead.  Valiant Passion (7/2) is the other favorite in the race off of a 6+ length allowance victory at the Spa a few weeks ago.  But speed figs (Beyer, Locks) are suspect.  Going to give Hot Summer(8/1) a look.   Hot Summer is a sprinter that was asked to route in top races - now back to its bread and butter - training well for debut off layoff...

$10 win Jealous Girl 

$2 exacta JG, VP, HS

$3WP Hot Summer

The Ballerina

The 2-1 favorite Hilda's Passion is beatable...when racing against foes in this race has not won.  Sassy Image (5/2) will come off the pace to attempt to win.  Riding a 3 race win streak including 2 Grade 1 wins.   Tamarind Hall (6-1) in last 5, 4 wins and 1 2nd.  109/112 Locks Speed Index in last 2.  Tar Heel Mom (7/2) ..horse for the course, 3 wins out of 4 starts.  

$10 win Sassy Image

$3 WP Tamarind Hall 

$2 ex SI, TH, THM

The King's Bishop

We have the return of Uncle Mo and he was installed as 9/5 favorite.  Will he be ready to face off against talented foes who may be primed to go??  Flashpoint (5/2) crushed the field in the Hutchenson, another 3yo 7f graded stakes. Training is lights out.   Dominus (6-1) a middle distance horse that faltered on the stretch out but may be better at this distance. 

$10 Win Dominus

$1 exacta all over Dominus

The Grand Slam bet will include the 7th race + The Ballston Spa + The Victory Ride + the Ballerina.   The Grand Slam is fun to bet.   Again its picking a horse to come in the top 3 in the first 3 races (races 7,8,9) and then the winner in the last (race 10).

The Locks Travers Day Grand Slam bet is:

Leg 1: #6 Fizzano, #7 Gamblin Fever,  #1 Seattle Mission

Leg 2: #7 Aviate, #2 Romacaca

Leg 3: #2 Jealous Girl, #8 Valiant Passion

Leg 4: #7 Sassy Image, #2 Tamarind Hall, #6 Tar Heel Mom

The bet will cost 3 x 2 x 2 x 3 = $36

Good Luck!!!

2011 Travers Stakes - the Locks

Saturday is the 142nd Running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.   Not only will $1,000,000 of purse money be decided in the race but also the colors of the canoe that sits in the pond in the middle of the infield will be painted the silk pattern of the winner.  This year's Travers will also possibly  award the winner 3yo Horse of the Year.   The Travers is the "Mid-Summer Derby" and if you don't think seersucker, fresh squeezed lemonade, ceiling fans, and sweat when you think of the Travers then you are wired up all wrong.  


To be honest, I first grew conscious of the Travers, the summer that Easy Goer won at 1-5 odds.  That summer, I was interning in Manhattan for JP Morgan's Private Banking group.   I commuted to work via the LIRR and took to handicapping to pass the time.   I first handicapped the end of the Belmont meet and then the Saratoga meet when horseman took their tack upstate for August.  As I was working on an intern "salary" my daily bets were limited to a $2 bet on each of the usual 9 race card and I'd round up to $20 by placing 1 exotic bet usually on the 8th/feature race.   I didn't have much handicapping sense except I liked horses that won alot and in maiden races I only bet on horses that had raced only 2 or 3 times.   That summer I learned a few things....to start, I learned horses names and if they were any good at all as over that summer I may see a horse's name in the entries, 4 times (2x at Belmont and 2x at Saratoga).    I learned that a guy named J D Bailey was riding a lot of the horses that had low odds and won a bunch.   I learned that Shug's name was really, Claude R. McGaughey III and he trained horses other than Easy Goer and these horses were pretty good.  I learned that if you were going to make any money betting on horses you can't bet place and show bets on chalk!  I also learned from one of the private banker's that it wasn't  standard at JPM to have your OTB betting slips laid out on your desk unless you had bet on your own (or your client's) horse.  Whodathunk??


As I noted in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, a lot can be learned from looking at the history of a race such as the Classics and the Travers.    As I've said several times I am not a real historian, I was one class shy of a history minor at Georgetown, so I couldn't be expected to analyze the 141 other runnings of the Travers but I did take a look at the races from that summer Easy Goer won for the Phipps.    Some real interesting things will help widdle down the field for us:


- Only Birdstone in 2004 and Easy Goer won the race without running in either the Jim Dandy, the Haskell or the Swaps Stakes.    Birdstone won the Belmont and then trained up to the Travers while Easy Goer prepped for the Travers by winning the Whitney! -a grade 1 usually for older horses...
- Out of those horses that ran in the Jim Dandy, the Haskell, or the Swaps only Sea Hero in 1993 didn't come in the top 3 of those races.
- Horses that had run in a Triple Crown race won at average odds of 2.65-1 while horses that didn't run in a Triple Crown race won at average odds of 5.60-1 
- Horses that won in their last race have won at average odds of 2.5-1 while horses that didn't come off a win won at an average odds of 4.60-1. 
- The median starts for winners before the Travers over this period was 8 and the median wins before the Travers for winners was 4.
- During this period, no horse has won at odds over 7.80-1.  


Here's the field......  


#               HORSE                                   JOCKEY            TRAINER


1     Bowman's Causeway ML: 12-1    R. Dominguez     C. Brown


2     Rattlesnake Bridge     ML: 8-1       J. Velazquez       K. McLaughlin


3      Moonshine Mullin       ML: 20-1     E. Wilson            R. Baker


4      Ruler On Ice                ML: 6-1        J. Valdivia, Jr.    K. Breen


5      Malibu Glow                 ML: 20-1     R. Maragh          G. Weaver


6      Raison d'Etat               ML: 10-1      E. Castro            W. Mott


7      Coil                               ML: 3-1         M. Garcia           B. Baffert


8       J W Blue                     ML: 20-1       C. Velasquez    A. Dutrow


9       Stay Thirsty                ML: 5-2          J. Castellano    T. Pletcher


10     Shackleford                ML: 9-2         J. Castanon       D. Romans


Here is the Locks, horse-by-horse analysis:


Bowman's Causeway
Like Elisha Cuthbert, Emmanuelle Chriqui and rapper Drake, (hmmmm for those who haven't watched TV since 1990 let me use the references of John Candy, Dan Ackroyd and Michael J. Fox), Bowman's Causeway hails from the great white north, Canada.  Looking at our history lesson above, the horse is a complete toss, only 1 win, didn't race in US triple crown, didn't race in one of the key races.   A great quote from Wayne's World starring famous Canadian, Michael Meyers is I once thought I had mono for a whole year. It turned out I was just really bored.  And this may be apropos....may think there is nothing here with this horse, but really I see the highest Locks Speed Figures, 110/104, in last 2 races + Moonshine Mullin scored a place finish in the Jim Dandy after racing with marginal success up north across the border and Bowman's Causeway comes in with a better resume + solid workouts at Saratoga show that the horse can handle the track. Consider.


Rattlesnake Bridge
Not too many thoroughbred owners have a license to print money.  This colt's owner actually had his name printed on US legal tender.  Colt is owned by Treasury Secretary, Nicholas Brady and his brother, James.  Even if the Brady boys contributed its purse winnings, if any, to prop up US Treasuries, by my account the Treasury will still be $14 trillion shy of breaking even.  My guess is this horse won't earn that much on Saturday and we'll be looking at a national sales tax in the not-so-distant future.  Colt is nicely bred if this race was going 1 mile but its going 2 furlongs further which may be one of the horse's undoings.  Also the horse is lightly raced and doesn't come in from a key race.  Pass....the hat...   


Moonshine Mullin
Comes into Saturday's race with a place finish in the Jim Dandy at 37+-1 - I actually had an across the board bet on MM in the Jim Dandy (anyone else thinking of that big-ass Friendly's sundae when they hear that) and made money on the horse but the bet was on an arbitrage on odds because of high Locks Speed Index in races coming into the Jim Dandy.   Really didn't think the horse would actually hit the board but did to my delight.   Really if you look at the replay of the race, MM wasn't really a threat to Stay Thirsty.   Will look elsewhere even for the exotics.


Ruler On Ice
I somehow liked this horse in the Belmont and did reward me with some big payouts on the win and exacta.   I actually like this gelding (ouch!) in this race.   Comes in with a Triple Crown victory, a third place finish in the Haskell, 8 starts with 3 wins on the resume.  The bullet :58+ work 2 weeks ago showed that the horse can be keyed up for the race.  Has shown can handle different tracks as Saratoga is the 8th track RoI will race at in 9 races.  Consider.




Malibu Glow
Doesn't fit profile of a Travers Stakes winner....lightly raced, no Triple Crown, no key prep, odds greater than 8-1.....betting on this horse to win would be the equivalent of taking Jacquizz Rodgers in the first round of your fantasy football draft.....yes, there is a element of the unknown but success is extremely remote.   Pass.


Raison D' Etat
This is far more French than your typical New Yorker can handle....luckily DSK keeps his moniker simple or no one would have put the time to learn to utter his full name.  Raison D' Etat, the colt is greener than Al Gore and lightly raced and not the typical horse you'd see Bill Mott take to a graded stakes but Juddmonte's stables have been hot as of late.  Juddmonte also is the owner of the best racehorse in the world in the monster, Frankel.    see for yourself: 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghUY0k4YX1k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iicnjw_U6Qc
Despite the success of its connections, this colt's task to win the Travers will prove too much.  Will not win.


Coil
Bob Baffert's talented colt has been giving silver-haired Bob fits in deciding on whether to run in the race.   Baffert knows the horse is talented and has shown versatility in stumbling at break in the Haskell to come off the pace to win.  But Bob has been critical of the Saratoga track but when Coil shot off a :46 workout bullet this week, Baffert was left with no excuses but to run the horse.   Somehow all this gives me the impression that Baffert doesn't think the horse will win although the horse fits well with the historic profile.   Has 4 wins in 6 starts, raced with success in 2 key Travers preps (Haskell (win), Swaps(2nd)), is the son of a Travers Stakes winner.   The questions may be whether the horses natural speed will be able to be harnessed with committed front runner Shackleford prompting the pace.   At 3-1, Baffert's body language tells me that I'd look elsewhere (caveat: Graham Motion's comments ahead of the Kentucky Derby turned me off of Animal Kingdom!)  but the horse's talent will keep it in the mix.


JW Blue
Name sounds like what the "hip" lounge at the Kansas City Marriott would be called...read that as a place where balding, slightly overweight guys in company polo shirts take their slightly younger, slightly less poorly dressed assistants and swill on watered down mint martinis....don't think this  bar would make it in NY and I likewise don't think this nicely bred colt will see success in the Travers.   Horse hasn't shown it really wants to win a race as has been outfinished in last 2.   Could benefit from a speed duel upfront but I don't think will be in mix at the end.


Stay Thirsty
Stay Thirsty is as New York as red clam chowder, alternate side of the street parking, and eating a bagel and a slice of pizza that doesn't blow.  Stay Thirsty is John Turturro, Hova, and Lou Carnesecca combined.   Colt has a record of 3 wins and 3 2nds in 6 starts within the borders of New York State.  Including a 4 length score in the Jim Dandy Stakes at the end of July.    The son of a Travers winner is 0 for 3 outside the Empire State.  Even the garish blue and orange silks stink of New York.   Profile fits perfectly for this race.  Only question is on the morning tab - does Pletcher have the screws tightened for this colts potentially biggest race?  Fuggedaboutit....will need the horse in the mix.  


Shackleford
NY restauranteur and racing fan, Danny Meyer again has kept up his vow to give customers free custard at his Shake Shack outlets upon Shackleford's victory.    With Shake Shack opening up on the Westport/Fairfield border I've been thoroughly enjoying their burgers and shakes on the weekends.  Very tricky to think on how this horse will do in this race.   Fits profile well....9 starts, 3 wins, winner in Preakness, close 2nd in the Haskell but as in Derby and in Belmont will racing on the front end, albeit, courageously, be the recipe for victory?   


The Locks has the race playing out where Shackleford will prompt the pace with Coil beside him.  Raison D' Etat, Moonshine Mullin will race off of these 2 followed by Stay Thirsty and Ruler on Ice just behind them.  The rest will find places among or trailing the field.   I feel that the Shackleford and Coil may fight on till the end but Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty look to  prevail.    Unfortunately, the Superfecta may be the top 4 betting interests and not pay much.   


The Locks will be:
$20 Win on Ruler on Ice
$2 exacta all over Ruler on Ice.
$2 exacta box Ruler On Ice, Stay Thirsty, Coil, Bowman's Causeway
$1 trifecta box RoI, ST, Coil, Bowman's Causeway


The Travers is not a race you will win box-cars but the pay-outs may be profitable if RoI does prevail.   


Epilogue
Stay Thirsty, the ultimate New Yorker, wins....followed by Rattlesnake Bridge and J W Blue to complete an unlikely exacta and trifecta.   Ruler on Ice finishes 4th but was given, to be polite, an unusual ride.   Hustled to near front, dropped back to field and then kept to task.  Unfortunately we don't have any tickets to cash but tomorrow is another day.




Look also for the Locks on the other graded stakes including 2 other Grade 1s on the card:  Ballston Spa (II), VIctory Ride (III), Ballerina (I), Kings Bishop (I)


Good Luck!!!

Travers Stakes 2011 Contenders

Here are the contenders for the Travers Stakes, the actual draw will occur Wed morning....


Will have the horse-by-horse Locks analysis and picks over next couple of days...


Horse
Trainer
DRF Early Odds





Bowman's Causeway
Chad C. Brown
20-1


Coil
Bob Baffert
3-1


J W Blue
Anthony W. Dutrow
20-1


Malibu Glow
George Weaver
N/A


Moonshine Mullin
Reade Baker
15-1


Prayer for Relief
Bob Baffert
12-1


Raison d'Etat
William I. Mott
10-1


Rattlesnake Bridge
Kiaran P. McLaughlin
8-1


Ruler On Ice
Kelly J. Breen
6-1


Shackleford
Dale L. Romans
7-2


Stay Thirsty
Todd A. Pletcher
5-1

Horse Auctions for Dummies

Here is a horse auction primer, written by @bwoodfarm for his new partners in his next horse racing venture.....



........

Horse auctions, I will try to explain.

Horses make it to the track in one of three primary ways--folks breed horses, raise them and race them.  These are called homebreds.   There are some horses that are sold privately off the farm to a racing outfit--this wintef I looked at some 2YOS privately but passed.  Then there are the auctions.   Most horses that wind up on the track, go thru an auction to get there.

There are 3 primary auction houses in the US.  Keeneland Sales is the largest house.  (think NYSE).  Fasig Tipton is the oldest sales company, and is now owned by Sheik Mohammed of Dubai.  And then there is the Ocala Breeders Sales Co (OBS) based in FLA.  There  are others, but those are the big three.

There are several different types of auctions-- in January, they have what's called the Mixed Sale, Horses of All Ages.  Here you will find young Yearlings (horses just a year old--and all horses have their birthday on January 1 even though their birthdate may be April 5th); Broodmares in foal ( so a pregnant mom--you are buying the momma and unborn child; and the also broodmare prospects (potential moms) and older yearlings-- HORSES of ALL AGES is an apt description.

Next on the sales calendar beginning in February and going through May are 2YOs in training sales.  So these are horses that are getting ready to go to the race track--you are buying a horse who you can watch run, be timed, and have the best sense of who the horse will be.   Many buy horses in the Yearling sales to train and then flip in the 2yo sales.--this is called pinhooking.  The problem w buying at these 2YO sales is that the horses are trained hard to make it to the sales before their bodies are ready for it--they are frequently injured in the process and become damaged goods.

The yearling sales, where we hope to be buying, begin in July and go through October--the biggest is Keeneland September.  By far, the most horses sold at auction are yearlings.   There is the Select Yearling Sale at Saratoga which was in August and 2 colts there brought $1 million +.  We looked at a few horses at this sale and they each sold for $190k and above.   Nicely bred, good looking horses--this auction brings the wealthiest buyers.

Keeneland has it's own version of Saratoga--the first 2 days of the Keeneland sale are held in the evening and some horses will bring over $1 million on those evenings.

What are folks paying for at a yearling sale?  Family and good looks.

You start with the family.   Before you head to auction, you scour the sales catalogs looking for the right families, the right combinations, the right style for what you are looking for and for what you can afford.   In our case, we have folks working with us to narrow a big long list of likely candidates.

The catalog lists the pedigree of the horse--essentially the family tree.  The father (sire) is up top and typically this is a very well credentialed horse--he's made a lot of money, won big races, is, in all practical terms, a stud.

Next on the page, is the mom.   This is the 1st Dam.   The huge prices go for Mares who have had a great record on the track, and then have had babies who have also burned up the track.

Black type.   If a horse is capitalized in bold type, it means the horse has won a stakes race--the highest level of competition.  If a horse is bold but not capitalized, that means the horse has PLACED in a stakes race (2nd or 3rd) but not won.  And if a horse is in regular type, it means they have not won or placed in the highest level of competition.   So...horses sell for the most when both mom and dad have bold black type and horses with little black type on the page bring peanuts.

This brings us to the 2nd and 3rd dam.   If the 1st dam has no black type and even if she is unraced, the you begin to look at next generations to see the talent in the family.   If grandma was a good run Eric, and she has had some other good runners as babies, then the family is strong.   If no generation shows talent, then you likely are buying a pet and not a racehorse.

Certain stallions get certain types of runners.   Some get horses that run short distances, some long.  Some win early, some take time to develop. Some run well on dirt, some better on grass.   The highest priced horses are colts who are bred to run the classic distances of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.  That said, those are not the only races that horses run.   Horses that were sprinters typically have offspring who are sprinters.   Same goes for grass horses,etc.

Also very important is the Broodmare Sire--this is the Sire of the horses mom.   These influences also dictate what type of runner the horse will be.   So if you want a early running horse, you are looking for a winner at 2, who has winners at 2, with a mom who has won at 2, who's sire won at 2.  You will get a horse who will run early if you put those pieces together.

Not all matches make a good horse.   There are combinations of bloodlines that are called nicks.   An A++ nick means that when these bloodlines are put together, there is a higher probability of success when matching the blood of this sire with this broodmare sire.   A great sire may actually be lousy with a certain line of mares,   A lousy sire may be awesome w a certain line of mares.   If Bob married Sally and had kids and they all went to Harvard, played cello and started in D1 sports, that is a good nick.  But if Bob married Susie instead and all the kids turned out to be deadbeats, well, that is a bad nick.   You are looking for good combos--some everyone knows about, some are emerging and you make a bet they will work well together.

Ok.  Nice family.  Now what?

At yearling sales, you can't watch a horse run, but you inspect the horse to get a sense of it's athletic makeup, are it's legs straight, does it walk in a fluid way, how long is it's stride?   A lot goes into inspecting a horse.     At the sales grounds, horses are housed in barns by consignment--so Darby Dan is selling Hip 1006 and a bunch of other horses.   You go to the Darby Dan barn and ask to see Hip 1006.  They take her out of her stall, walk her for you and you get a sense of what she's like.  You (or in our case) your agent, helps you grade the horse, the good, the bad, what you can live with and what just spells trouble.

The other thing you try to factor is who is selling the horse and who bred the horse.  Some folks are good, some not so good.

Ok.  Horse looks good and has a good family-- before we bid, we narrow the field to those we like best and we have them vetted.   A vet looks over x-rays of it's knees, ankles, etc.  Sellers pre-sale have the x-rays placed in a repository.    You don't want damaged goods.  The other test they do is on the horse's windpipe--is it restricted in any way?   There are other biomechanical tests that can be done, but for now, let's keep it simple.   The horse vets great.

We are going to bid.

The horses parade into the auction ring--like flights queued up to land.  At Keeneland they will start at Hip 1 and go all the way to 4400 over the course of 2 weeks--300+ horse sell each day.   It is a MARKET, nonstop flow of horses, bids, sellers, buyers, gamesmanship.   As they walk up to the ring, typically you are out back there trying to get a sure sense of the horse--nervous or dull?   There is a crowd back there looking at the horses as they go thru.   Once in the ring, the bidding begins--on the 1st night it will begin at 100k, for us probably 10k.  Sometimes you jump in early to beat back interest, others times you wait until the very end.   Many times sellers will have a reserve set on the horse -- maybe it's 50k.  They won't sell the horse until it exceeds 50k--you don't know that info and you are likely bidding against the seller until you get to the price they are willing to let go at.   If you look at sales results, you sometimes see ($50,000 RNA).  Reserve not attained.  What is the horse worth, what's the reserve, what is your limit, how far will you, should you go, who else is bidding, are they in the room, on the phone, in the back, what is your last bid?   There is an art to this which I have not mastered AT ALL, but the adrenaline absolutely starts going as you are live in the bidding for a horse.

Ok. We bought the horse, so what's next?  A drink to celebrate, a check to write and the rest of it I will leave for the next chapter.    For now, I hope these basics helped out.

Lets put the knowledge to work   There is a sale in Florida, the OBS Yearling Sale that begins tomorrow.

I only looked at the beginning of the sale over the weekend, but if I was there, I would want to see a few.....

Website: http://www.obssales.com/CATALOG.html


and from this list, we'd probably narrow it to a few horses to vet after we looked at them--ending up w 1 or 2 to bid on.  Why these?   Like the combination of sire and mare, like running style and surface--meaning, probably going to run a bit longer on turf rather than short distances on dirt.

This sale will be an indicator of how strong the middle market will be in September.

So that's it.   Later this week will post updates from the OBS sale and also some observations about how auction horses are doing at Saratoga and Del Mar, the 2 premiere summer tracks in USA.

Good Luck!

Saratoga August 20th - The Locks

Saratoga, Alabama Stakes day.....Grade 1 race which may help decide who will be 3yo filly horse of the year.  


Adding to my suggestions on enjoying a day at Saratoga, when you actually go to the course that day, I suggest having secured a seat somehow.  You can do so by getting in the lottery ahead of the meet...go to www.nyra.com or going through a broker. Ranging from owners box to the grandstand section Y seats can be had but possibly at the right price.   There are "sun seats" but under the molten August sun or a threat of rain, my suggestion on that goes the same line as a Finger Lakes shipper, "pass" on those.  


For the life of me I don't understand but many who attend Saratoga don't even see a racehorse, many will park out in front of the many TVs that litter the grounds surrounding the facility, with packed cooler, beach chairs.   The whole set up of these picnics reminds me alot of Central Hong Kong on Sundays where the maids come to enjoy their only day off and set up in 1000s of small groups to picnic and talk the day away.  I know people that like to picnic this way do it for years and really enjoy themselves.   Personally, I don't get it.  I am at the track to see the horses live.  


Once in and under the assumption you have seats rather than picnic-ing, there are some great food options at Saratoga.  I like to get myself the freshly squeezed lemonade and depending on mood step that up with some contraband vodka.   You should aim to get yourself the Fried Chicken sandwich at the on track outpost of Hatties Chicken Shack....Fried Chicken and Lemonade can't get too much Americana than that!   Danny Meyer also has set up outposts of 2 of his NY based restaurants at the course too....Blue Smoke BBQ and the Shack Shack can be now found at the track.  Once nourished you can now check the day's scratches and jockey changes et al and finish your handicapping.   


Now for today's Locks....


Race 1.
Crea's Law  #7, 4-1, no worse than 4th in career including stakes tries

Green Monster #6, 5-2, good works, only 2nd race vs state-breds

$10 Win #7, $2 Ex Box #7,#6, $2 DD #7,#6 w/ #10, #9, #5

Race 2.
Rock Star Charlie #10, 8-1, good works for trainer than does well with juveniles
Mississippi Duel #9, 3-1, had decent debut, pedigree suggest can handle 8-9 furlongs.
Fox Rules #5, 20-1, troubled trip in debut, pedigree also suggests stretch out may not be issue.

$10 Win #10, $3 W #5, $1 ex box #10,#9,#5

Race 3
Le Festa E Domani #9, 20-1, bet this long shot when I was at the Spa and the gelding raced better than its odds, maybe will improve again to hit board or win
Calico Mountain #1, 3-1, 3rd in last race which was run at Saratoga under same conditions
One Way to Rock #3, 5-2, bad trip in last will improve

$4 Win #9, $1 DD, #9, #1, #3 w/ #2, #4, #6


Race 4
Black Diablo #2, 8-1 3rd race at the Spa this meet, 3x a charm?
Running Tap #4, 5-2, dropping down in class may help
Take a Walk #6, 5-1, speed figs suggest could contend

$5 WP #2 $1 ex box , #2, #4, #6

Race 5
Katy's Office Girl #2, 7-2, decent last 4 starts all on the turf
Virging On Stardom #10, 10-1, will get pace to run at??
Short Shrift #4, 5-2, 2nd race back on flat turf after trying the hurdles

$6 W #2, $4 P #2, $1 exbox #2, #10,#4, $2 DD #2, #10, #4 w/ #11, #6, #4

Race 6
Rightfully So, #11, 10-1, beautifully bred, working out great
News Pending #6, 5-1, stable having luck at Spa
Granpa Len #4, 5-1, trainer does better with 2nd timers

$10 win #11, $4 Pl #11, $1 ex #11, #6, #4


Race 7
Dodging #10, 9-2,
Mosquito #9, 4-1
Dahess, #8, 5-1

$5 WP #10
Grand Slam (fun bet!)  #10, #9, #8  w/ #3, #5, #1 w/ #5, #8 w/ #6, #3, #4

Race 8
Saturday Classic, #3, 7-2,
Animal Spirits, #1, 8-1
Tiz a Homerun, #5, 3-1

$10 Win #3, $5 Pl #3,  $1 ex-box, #3, #1, #5

Race 9
La Reine Lionne #5, 5-2, 4 wins in 8 turf starts
Media Madness #8, 5-1. in money in all starts except last which was a graded stakes going 1 3/8m
In Te Domine #6, 12-1, last 2 were troubled trips looks to get back to good form

$10 w #8, $5 pl #8, $1 ex-box #5, #8, #6

Race 10, The Alabama
Inglorious #6, 6-1 won against the boys in Canada's biggest 3yo race going 1 1/4m shooting off a 109 JCC Speed Index
Its Tricky #4, 9/5, going for the Triple Tiara after capturing Acorn and CCA Oaks
Plum Pretty #3, 2/1, won Kentucky Oaks, 2nd to Its Tricky in CCA Oaks at Saratoga in late July
St. Johns River #5, 5-1,no worse than 2nd since debut, will Its Tricky and Plum Pretty hook up to push each for fast fractions to set up this filly for a late run??

$10 win #6, $ 5 pl #6, $1 ex #6, #4, #5,#3, $1 tri 6,4,5,3.....both exacta and trifecta will only pay  decently if either PP or IT doesn't hit top spot.

EPILOGUE
Race 1. Green Monster wins, $14 bets $0 win
Race 2. Fox Rules wins!!, $31 bets, $70.8 + $239.00(daily double) = $309.8, Net $278.80
Race 3. One Way to Rock wins, $4bets, $0 win
Race 4. Running Tap wins, $3 bets, $2.70 (daily double) win
Race 5. Short Shrift wins, $2bets, $0 win
Race 6, Grandpa Len 3rd, $32 bets $0 win
Race 7, Mosquito 2nd, $10 bets, $0 win
Race 8, Animal Spirts 2nd, $21 bets, $0win
Race 9, Le Reine Lione wins, $21 bets, $0win
Race 10, $99bets, $0win


Total......Net up $75,50.....good start to day and liked 6 of the winners but could cash many tickets...

Good Luck !!

Ebor Festival Day 3 - The Locks

Ebor Festival Day 3.....3 Group Stakes...


In the Gimcrack, I liked Lilbourne Lad(7-2) and Burwaaz(6-1) 
I played a $8 WP on Burwaaz and then boxed the 2 in an exacta....race is going off right now!! Results are in Burwaaz 3rd, LL 2nd...:(


In the Group 3 Strensall Stakes, Biondetti at 8-1 just missed in France last month and actually did well (4th) in the BC Juvenile last year.  Western Aristocrat  13-2 has just missed in last 2 .  


Biondetti $10 W $5PL, $2 B/WA exacta box


In the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes...15 will line up for a 5 furlong sprint....Masmah 8-1 either wins or flops....has won 3 out of last 4 including last month at York.   Inexile and Prohibit are battle hardened vets with group stakes victories.  Can't look past favorite Hoof It.


$10 Win Masmah  $1 exacta box M, I, P, HI...


Good Luck

Hoyas in China - the Real Story

No Hoya should be proud of what happened in China but watch the video and judge for yourself and also see the full account of the game below....I know who ultimately signs my paychecks so I won't say anything further in a public forum.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waQlUVtFvWs


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zygje6EbOcs


From Hoya Talk


A partisan account from a Hoya supporter who wishes to remain anonymous: 


So, tonight's game...we started out behind and were having trouble moving the ball around. The PLA team's big men actually matched up with us pretty well and they played solid defense early on. We were quickly in foul trouble and they moved to the line pretty often, although it wasn't that notable at the time. Then in the second quarter we made a nice run, started hitting open shots, and played really nice defense and forced some turnovers- truly fun to watch and gives us some hope for the regular season. I believe we were down 5 at the end of the first, and then we built a 6-point lead. 


Then things got really lopsided on the officiating front in the second quarter. They were in the bonus (five fouls) in the first two minutes of the quarter. The fouls continued- I think we had about 12-14 in the second quarter alone, if I had to guess without seeing a stat sheet (which I doubt will be published). On a couple of plays there was a bit of shoving under the basket, but it calmed down fairly quickly, JT3 clearly called the team over and probably said something along the lines that the officiating was ridiculous, but it didn't matter and everyone needed to stay cool. Then JT3 became more active in pushing the refs for some calls on our end (we were getting mauled, and the PLA team was getting a call basically every time down the court). Despite all of this, we finished the half up 4 or 5- we were shooting really well. 


The whole thing came undone in the third. About two minutes in, the ridiculously lopsided foul calls continued (we were in the bonus again 2 1/2 minutes in) and the first real shoving match kicked off over a loose ball. The players on the court separated each other pretty quickly, but then the craziest thing I've ever seen happened- one of the Bayi big men got in JT3's face and almost took a swing. He was so shocked he didn't know what to do. So that upped the ante a bit. 


Then the foul calls truly took on a comical dimension. We supposedly fouled them every time down the court, despite some really good defense on some possessions. There were four or five intentional fouls called, giving them four shots each time down the court. JT3 was called for a technical for stepping over the line onto the court. I counted Bayi scoring two field goals in the entire third quarter. I don't know what the count was, but I would not be surprised if they shot 45-50 FTs through three quarters, and we shot 6-10. I honestly think the foul count was likely in the range of 30 or 35 to 5-7. A few exchanges got testy and at one point players had to restrain themselves again. I started joking with some Chinese people in the crowd, who to their credit similarly thought it was a bit ridiculous but were mainly upset that the game had no flow. At the end of the third, despite all of this, we were tied or up two points or so. 


Two minutes into the fourth, they were pressing full court, trapped one of our guards (I forget who it was), and then must have pushed or punched him on the ground after he made the outlet pass, because then there was a shoving match and then a bit of a fight, and then the whole thing set off. He tried to get away as quickly as possible as the Chinese players sort of converged on him, and then benches cleared, and then people on the Chinese bench started picking up chairs. Everyone on the other side of the court started fighting as well. Brawl spread all over the court, and then off the court. After it kicked off it immediately became possible for the crowd to get involved, and then they did. As we tried to get the team off the court, bottles (plastic ones, thankfully) came out of the crowd at the team and everyone left. Security was there (sort of), but it was more equivalent to mall cop-quality security rather than actual security. The Georgetown staff wanted the security to get on the floor, but honestly these guys didn't have a clue what to do. They escorted the whole alumni contingent out fairly quickly after that. Game over, 64-64 (following another intentional foul). 


I don't know how much news this will make, but even given my admittedly partisan view of how this played out, this was really not our fault. The refs completely failed to control the game, and these things happen when they can continue to maul us underneath with no consequences. The coaching staff called the whole team over at several times during the game and calmed everyone down. We didn't throw any punches and players and coaches were generally just laughing at the absurdity of the officiating at times. Anyway, not exactly what I was expecting to see tonight...

York Ebor Festival Day 2 - The Locks

The Festival moves to day 2 and we have 2 group stakes, the Group 1, Yorkshire Oaks, and the Group 2, Lowther Stakes.


In the Lowther Stakes, we have 11 2yo fillies line up going 6 furlongs.   The Locks likes Best Terms at 8-1, 3 for 3 with jock Richard Hughes up.   Fire Lily at 7-1 also is a good play as filly already won a group stakes at the Curragh in a good time.


Lets go $10 win on Best Terms, and $2 exacta box BT and FL


The Yorkshire Oaks is for 3yo+ fillies and mares going 12 furlongs.  Banimpire at 6-1 already has 7 wins in 13 tries and is a multiple group stakes winner.  Crystal Capella 7/2 is an accomplished race mare including winning the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket.  Blue Bunting is short priced at 11/4 with with wins in the Irish Oaks and English 1000 Guineas.   Banimpire will be my play $10 win and then lets box up the 3 above but will result in a relatively low paying exacta.


Good Luck!!

York Ebor Festival - The Locks

Northern England plays stage to a 4 day meet that will feature some of the best of England's summer racing.   Today in Yorkshire will be a G1, a G2, and G3.   The G1 is the Juddmonte International, a 10f affair for 3yos+.  Monster horse, Frankel flirted with running in this race but decided against.  But the race will feature some good horses in even-money favorite Await the Dawn who has 5 wins in 6 tries, the 5/2 racemare, Midday who hasn't raced worse than 2nd since October of 2009, Twice Over,5-1 an accomplished horse that has 10wins and 18 in the $$ finishes in 23 tries.  

Lets go with the value play of Twice Over who has just recently won at the course going same distance and came in a close 2nd in this race last year.  $15 win. $5 place.  

Namibian looks like the horse to bet in the Great Voltigeur Stakes, a 12 furlong race for 3yos.  Going off at 5-1 with wins in last 2 and a win at the track as a 2yo provides more value than even money Seville who has only 1 win in its 7 race career and 7/2 Sea Moon who is 2 for 3 lifetime but yet to race against group stakes competition.   Namibian last 2 wins are both group stakes wins.  

Lets go Namibian $15 win. $5 place.

The Group 3 race is the Acorn Stakes for 2yos all somewhat indistinguishable to me but ranging in odds from 4-1 to 40-1.  Do i dare do an all over all for $144......?  I will let the bettor to decide.  Bet or pass....

Good Luck

Saratoga August 15 - The Locks

Saratoga races on Mondays where as usually Belmont and other fall/spring meets will be dark.   Adding to suggestions for attending Saratoga....as mentioned getting up the night before is important because you do want to be at the track in morning.   The morning you can see the real hard work of the track workers and the horses themselves.  Grab a coffee and  you have the choice of watching works at the main track or across Union Avenue at the Oklahoma training track.   Watch horses work-out...bring your stop watch and you may be surprised the times you track may not match what the clockers publish....take that as some inside information for when that horse runs again. Watch young horses get schooled at the gate.  


This week after watching the workouts...you could have head over to the Fasig - Tipton facility and preview some of the horses going through the auction ring.   Many people think that this is off-limits to the general population but its not.   Just act like you know what you are doing...go to the office pick up a catalog and pore over it like you know what sires go with what mares.  You should try to have some understanding of what sires are good and what dam-sires are good.  Then you can go over to a barn and ask the young sales company staff to pull a horse out of the barn for your closer inspection...just ask by the #.....  once out feign to jot down some notes about the horses confirmation (body, leg structure).  Make sure you look from the front and ask the sales staff to walk the horse for you......  recently we inspected horse flesh each that went through the ring for $200k+  - didn't really intend on buying but did want to see what these sires' yearlings looked like for future reference.   My brother and I at one of the first auction previews we went to.....Keeneland November of breeding stock...pulled, Ruby Slippers, a multi-million dollar mare out of the barn to look at...it was a bit naive for us to do but funny looking back at it.


As to today's races --- only picking a few ideas here...


1st  Wise Stop - will be the speed...question will be whether will be pressed on the lead - if not may win at 12-1.
2nd Grimmer - race after layoff could merely be a workout for this....at 12-1 may be able to match these so-so horses.
3rd Golden Weekend 4-1 only one out of the money start in 2011.
4th Miss Vindictive 10-1 and Poppy's Day have good 2011 in the $$ %.
5th Lets try to beat the 8/5 chalk with Devilish Silver at 6-1 and Dubai's Connection 6-1, DC has shown that wants to win by going 3 wins in 6 tries in 2011 but may have been hard used by Wesley Ward and Margolis is just trying to get the horse back to form.
6th Jack's Work at 7-2 will come off pace which may be the play as there are many that want the lead and pace will be pressured.  at 5.5f will JW be able to make up enough ground?
7th Font at 12-1 looks to improve from last outing at Saratoga, Northern Coast has 3 wins in 4 starts including same distance, same course within last 2 weeks
8th The Saratoga Special Grade 2 for 2yos....Stat is the chalk for Pletcher at 7/5...at 5-1 I like Union Rags who has been working lights out for this one.


Good Luck!!

PRIX JACQUES LE MAROIS - The Locks

The summer meet at Deaville, France is like the Saratoga meet of Europe.  Great racing, top horses, trainers, jockeys.  But it actually does Saratoga one better.....its in a seaside town where resort visitors may be busy with other pursuits, beach, sailing, golf to even remember that some of Europe's best horses are minutes away.   

Monday, we have one of Deuville's five Group 1 races in the Prix Jacques Le Marois...1 mile test for 3yo+.    The race features Goldikova who after winning 3 Breeder Cup Mile races in a row and hands down the best miler is now probably the 3rd best miler with Canford Cliffs establishing himself and then there is the super-freak, Frankel, who is the best race horse in the world right now for proof see these videos......not sure if super freak gives the horse justice...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQajCQ1_BSA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iicnjw_U6Qc

Well Goldikovia is still one of the best horses in the world and will go off at even money (1/1) in a race that features some really accomplished horses....lets look at a few competitors:

Mutual Trust 5-1....perfect 4 for 4 including winning a G3 and the G1 Jean Prat

Cityscape 12-1...is a Group stakes winner and is 9 in the $$ finishes in 11 tries....including a 3rd in the Goldikova v Canford Cliffs showdown at Royal Ascot in June.

Immortal Verse 12-1...in her 6 starts is already a winner of a G2 at Chantilly and a G1 at Royal Ascot

Dick Turpin 12-1 is a multiple Group stakes winner

Sahpresa 12-1 has been in $$ 14x over 18 tries.  Just missed beating Goldie here in Deaville on July 31.  

People haven't made alot of money betting against Goldikova including myself who is always looking to beat the chalk but lets take the gamble.

The Locks are:

$10 Win Mutual Trust

$2 Ex Mutual Trust, Immortal Verse, Sahpresa, Goldikova -- this bet will only make money if Goldie falters.


The undercard race at Deauville the Prix Guillaume D' Ornano, 10 furlongs for 3yos, features the undefeated German Derby winner, Waldpark and the undefeated, French Oaks winner, Golden Lilac.   But an interesting contestant will be Galikova...Goldie's half sis (same mare) who has a Group stakes win and the runner up finish in the Prix Diane (French Oaks).   Not sure how much value will be here to bet.   If you can get any of these greater than 7/2 make the bet.


Good luck!!  Merde...bonne chance!

Arlington Million - The Locks

Lived in Chicago back in the day of Awad...however, my priorities at that time were a bit out of whack...I was more interested in where were the happy hour specials at on a Wednesday rather than handicapping horses.   I did still make it back to NY for the Belmont Stakes and always bet the Preakness and knew who was having the Derby party but didn't think much of the Arlington Million in that day as it was "just a turf race"....I've gotten wiser over the years and have realized that top dirt racing is somewhat unique to the US and that the horses that run at Arlington in August may actually be some of the best in the world.    

Today's card at Arlington features 3 G1 turf races....keep in mind the UK has only 3 Group 1 races in all of August...expresses the importance of today's card.

Secretariat Stakes, 1 1/4 m, turf, 3yos.

Race features Treasure Beach, the colt that won the Irish Derby and lost the Derby at Epsom only by a short head but by keying the horse at 25-1 actually won me a ton of $$.  Did come up short at Longchamp as a follow up to those two performances.   Treasure Beach will go off at 2-1 but may be beatable as the horse has shown less success at distances less than 1 1/2m.    As such I will look at Irish bred, French trained, Ziyarid at 10-1 to potentially wire the field as there doesn't appear to be other horses that want the lead.   Lets also put US horse , Wilcox Inn in the mix off of its 2 for 2 showing on the Arlington turf.

lets bet $10 win on Ziyarid with a $1 exacta saver

Beverly D Stakes, 1 3/16m, turf, 3yo+, F&M

Stacelita 3-1, French trained was favorite in United Nations Stakes and finished a close third. Has spent the last month or so in US training up for this race.  Fantasia won at this track and distance just little over a month ago.   Romin Robin 30-1 was 2nd to Fantasia in this race last month after getting a dodgy start.  Has 3 wins on the Arlington turf.  Cheetah having a good 2011.  

Lets put $5 WP on Romin Robin, $1 ex S, F, RR, C.

Arlington Million, 1 1/4 m turf, 3yo+

Cape Blanco 9/5 and Gio Ponti 2-1 appear to be the ones to beat and may not be beatable....Cape Blanco, has won the Irish Derby and Irish Champions Stakes in the past before making mark in US with a G1 win in July. Gio Ponti is a winner and runner up in this race as well as a runner up to Cape Blanco in July among other exploits.  If a horse is to beat these 2 it will be Mission Approved at 6-1 is a pace setter and beat Gio Ponti in the G1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day on the front end.

Lets bet $10 win on Mission Approved.  $1 ex CB, GP, MA.

Also may consider the Festival $1 Pick 3.....

with Treasure Beach, Wilcox Inn and Ziyarid in firt leg, Romin Robin, Fantasia, Cheetah, Stacelita and then you can choose just to go Mission Approved for a $12 bet or add Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti for a $36 bet 

Good luck!!!!


EPILOGUE
Only when chalk rules do you hit 2 exactas and a Pick 3 on 3 races and don't make money.   On $56 of bets, the exactas paid exactly $22.80 for a net of $33.20 adding the Pick 3 it would be $92 of bets, payout of $39.20 for a net down of $52.80.