Breeder's Cup - The Locks Picks the Winners, Part 1

I've been asked what is bigger...the Kentucky Derby or the Breeder's Cup?....hmmmm...very difficult to create an analogy to other US sports so its a difficult question to answer.   But the Kentucky Derby is the Kentucky Derby and will always be the most important two minutes on the horse racing calendar in the US.  The Kentucky Derby is all about tradition and pageantry and is a culmination of a fever that grabs many racehorse owners and trainers.  The Kentucky Derby has a drink (a fine one at that), the Mint Julep...it has a song, My Old Kentucky Home....it has ladies wearing fancy hats....people throw Kentucky Derby parties.


But the Breeder's Cup is more no nonsense -- its simply great races - essentially 15 championships spread across 2 days.   The Breeder's Cup will decide who are the champions among racehorses.   


This year the Breeder's Cup is back under the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs in Louisville.  
Lets look at the Locks for the first 4 of the 15 races....





Friday, November 4...
Churchill Downs

R5 BC Juvenile Sprint 
◎Secret Circle 6/5
Favorite is too tough to beat...blew out fields in both races...great workouts...

○ Vexor  5-1
Colt's run in the G1 Hopeful is a toss....both wins are impressive....great last work...Locks Speed Index (LSI) in wins is 103, 105...

▲Jake Mo 20-1
Won big then had slow break in last - if can get off clean, will contend



R6 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf 
◎Elusive Kate 2-1
Again favorite is very tuff to beat. 4 wins in last 4 against top 2yo filies...

○ Dear Lavina 30-1
"Boy Meets Grill" master, Bobby Flay, who is this filly's owner was called less kind things in his Entourage cameo but now has a live 30-1 shot in this race 3 wins including close up to 2-1 Elusive Kate in July Deauville race.

▲ Somali Lemonade 3-1
Sounds like a rejected drink idea during a Nantucket Nectar whiteboard session.... will come off the pace training forwardly for this one.

△ Pure Gossip 12-1
Crushes field on soft turf with an "explosive bid"  in Belmont's prep for this race - being a NY bred won't be such a bad thing when slots comes to the Big A.


R7 BC Filly and Mare Sprint
◎ Pomeroys Pistol 6-1
Won last by wide margin in last at same distance at same track was spread 4 wide...

○ Turbulent Descent 6-5
Can't find alot (any) fault in this one...won 3 times at distance (7f which isn't an easy distance to conquer)...only 6-5 odds prevents me from slotting at top.

▲ Great Hot 20-1
Like any other female from Brazil, this filly is impressive...hasn't done much wrong since coming north ....blowout workouts are blazing

△ Switch 3-1
Has only 1 race out of 17 that was out of the money....5 races at distance including 2 wins 2 runner-ups...if switch is flipped on and she runs her best will beat TD


R8 BC Juvenile Fillies 
◎ Grace Hall 4-1
3 fillies with 3 wins in 3 starts - this one is going off at longest odds so like her now better than other 2....good works complement - race form.

○ My Miss Aurelia 5-2
3 for 3 all big wins on the NY circuit.....

▲ Wemissfrankie 4-1
Also 3 for 3 coming off pace in each...will win race if MMA is asked to push a fast pace.

△ Northern Passion 12-1
Would have been my pick in Juv Fillies Turf but trainer Mark Casse opted for this one.  This Cannuck can still contend.

△ Candrea 6-1
If looking for a little more value this one pops the highest LSI in the field...

The Locks for the remaining 11 races will come soon....