Newmarket September 24th - the Locks

Tomorrow they will be running 2 Group 1 races on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket.


The Cheveley Park Stakes is a 6f race for 2yo fillies and features Best Terms (5/4) who is a perfect 4 for 4.  Lets look at the only 3 horses that Best Terms hasn't raced against and beaten so far.  Lightening Pearl (7/2) crushed a Group 3 field in the Curragh last out.  Miss Work of Art (25-1) seems to be back in good form but will be back racing after running 2nd in a G3 at Ayr last week.  Sajwah(12-1) back in winning form....last time at Newmarket ran 5th but had a troubled trip.


$5WP Miss Work of Art
$1 exacta/trifecta BT, LP,MWofA,Sajwah


Epilogue
Lightening Pearl wins....Miss Work of Art 4th.  Best Terms 5th. Sajwahy pulled up


The Sun Chariot Stakes is a 1mile Group 1 race for fillies.  Timepiece (11/2) has 3 wins in 6 races at Newmarket including a win over 2-1 favorite Sahpresa.  If Together 8-1 was a college football team, her Strength of Schedule would be near the top...she has already raced 6 times in Group 1 company and has been competitive in all her races.  Sahpresa has won this same race 2 times already, 2009 + 2010 and is running in good form.  Alanza (10/3) hasn't raced out of the money in 6 tries although only has 1 group race under her belt.


$5WP Timepiece
$1exacta Timepiece, Sahpresa, Together
$1 trifecta timepiece, sahpresa, together and Alanza


Epilogue
Sahpresa wins, Alanza 6th, Together 7th, Timepiece 8th, 




Good Luck!!

Japan Grade 2s - September 25th - The Locks

Sunday in Japan, there are 2 Grade II races that will act as preps for Grade Is this fall.  


At Nakayama, there is the Sankei Sho All Comers Stakes
(オールカマー )which is a 1 3/8m race for 3yo+.  Race features winner of G1 Takarakuzuka Kinen, Ernestly アーネストリー.  That G1 run in June was the last G1 on the calendar with the next being run next weekend....only 21 G1s are run during the year in Japan, so their importance is magnified.  Ernestly(1.5-1), has won 9 times, and has been in the money 16 times in a 20 race career. Has only raced once at Nakayama before which was one of its out of the money finishes.  Lets look at 2 others to get some value.  Makoto Galaxyマコトギャラクシー (17-1) likes the Nakayama track where it has raced 11 times in its 18 race career and has each of its 4 career wins on the track.  Will come off the pace to try to win this one.  Caliburn カリバーン(4.5-1) has won at this track at the same distance.  Last race placed 5th but was coming off a layoff and was trying graded company for the first time...but will improve from there.


This race will act as prep for the important G1s such as the Tenno Sho Aki and the Japan Cup that take place in October and November respectively.  In Japan handicappers use the symbols to indicate the horses they like in following order 
◎  ○ ▲ △ ...in small field, in Japanese terms, of 9, I am only picking my top 3.



◎  Makoto Galaxy
○  Ernestly
▲ Caliburn


Epilogue
Ernestly wins, Caliburn 3rd, Makoto Galaxy 5th.
$10 Win MG, $1 Exacta All over  MG,  $5 WP Calibrn, $1 exacta and $1 trifecta, MG, E, C.

The other G2 is the Kobe Shimbun Hai (神戸新聞杯)aka Japanese St. Leger Trial, being run at the Hanshin race course which is in between the cities of Kobe and Osaka.  This race is a prep for  the 3rd leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the Kikuka Sho (aka the Japanese St Leger) to be run in October.    The race features a top field of 3yos including the winner, Orfevre (1.7-1) オルフェーヴル and runner up, Win Variation(3.9-1) ウインバリアシオン in the Japan Derby.  Also in the field is Cresco Grande(13-1) クレスコグランド the horse I loved in the Derby only to come a hard charging neck short of third...if the horse hit the board I would have won about a $1200+ trifecta among other bets.  These 3 all have been on the shelf since the Derby and if they aren't sharp Carmine (87-1!!)could have a shot, Carmine won at track and distance in a decent time of 2:25 in April.

◎  Cresco Grande
○ Win Variation
▲ Orfevre
△ Carmine


$10 win Cresco Grande....$5 place Cresco Grande.  $5WP Carmine $1 exacta and $1 trifecta CG,WV,O,C.


Epilogue
Cresco Grande scratches.  Orfevre wins, Win Variation 2nd.  Carmine 10th.


Good luck!!

Mariano Rivera Really the Greatest?????

Mariano Rivera saves his 602nd game and is now at the top of the all-time saves leader list. He is being roundly called the "greatest closer ever". But is he really?? My feeling is how can you call someone the "greatest" if in any given season they may not have been the best in the league. When we talk about the greatest pitcher ever or greatest batter ever, you an easily point to seasons where they were the best in the league and dominated like Babe Ruth in 1923, Willie Mays in 1965, Barry Bonds in 2001 or Sandy Koufax in 1963, Walter Johnson in 1913, Roger Clemens in 1986. But with Mo, he may have been top 2 or 3, once or twice but by calling him the “best ever” says you are satisfied with a good but not lights out great closer. Lets look at the years that Mo has been pitching and we can see who actually was the best closer in any given year:

1995 Jose "Joe Table" Mesa

1996 John Wetteland (Mo was a set up man)

1997 Randy Myers

1998 Trevor Hoffman

1999 Billy Wagner, admittedly Mo was close but Wagner had a better ERA, less losses and less blown saves

2000 Todd Jones

2001 Armando Benitez (Mets!!)

2002 Smoltz

2003 Gagne - never did Mo come close to a season like Gagne's

2004 Gagne admittedly Mo was close but Gagne had less blown saves and no way can any Yankee be considered the best after their utter collapse in 2004.

2005 maybe Mo but likely Cordero who played for an atrocious Nationals team is more deserving

2006 K-Rod

2007 Putz

2008 K-Rod or Lidg

2009 Joe Nathan

2010 Brian WIlson

I think his "greatest" tab has been somewhat attributed to the fact that Mo wears the pinstripes...its a bit like those that call Wayne Rooney, the greatest striker in soccer right now...Rooney is no athlete...he looks like and probably has the same athletic acumen as my plumber but because he wears the devil's uniform of Man U...the public has been lulled into the belief he is the greatest. It is possible that Mo coming up in the Royals or Mariners organization Mo would already be back in Panama tending bar poolside making those drinks they make out of cocoanuts.

Mo, congrats on your longevity and your record number of your saves but not ready to give you the "greatest" tag....prove me wrong....

God Bless Coach Dave Gavitt

Just a quick not but the sports world lost  a great one yesterday.    Coach Dave Gavitt  passed away  in Providence.   I can't even attempt to list his accomplishments but I knew him mostly as the founder of the Big East Conference.   Like myself and others that went to Georgetown we owe a lot to Coach Gavitt for the value of our degree.   G-town was a real nice regional college without the Big East, with the Big East its a national university.   Away from all his accomplishments including some important to me...Coach was a great guy.   Had opportunity to meet him....couldn't have been a nicer guy....was willing to talk about hoops and the Big East to no end and to my delight.  

My thanks goes out to the old hoops coach and my sympathies go out to his family.  

Ayr Gold Cup & Woodbine Mile - The Locks

We have 2 races this weekend the Locks is going to look at for possible good betting situations.   One on each side of the Atlantic.   


On Saturday we have the Ayr Gold Cup, which is one of the most notable of races in Scotland.  Ayr is also the home of the Scottish Grand National over the hurdles which is in April.  The Ayr Gold Cup is pure madness though we have 27 horses in a 6 furlong dash.   As such we the best horse may not always win and this may be something like spinning a roulette whell - but we are looking at odds no less than 10-1!!!  The Gold Cup despite its popularity doesn't even have Group status and the best sprinters typically will pass on the race. 


Out of the 27, lets look at 3 in particular.  Pepper Lane (14-1)  has won last 3 including wins in races with 19 and 16 horses. Colonel Mak (15-1) won at Ayr last year in the Silver Cup against 24 other horses.  Coming into race off a win which was the form the horse had last year going into the Ayr race.  Mayson (18-1) has 5 in-the-money finishes in 7 races including 3rd to Pepper Lane in last.  


The Locks are:
$10 win Mayson
$ 5 win Colonel Mak
$ 5 win Pepper Lane
$1 exacta box M,CM, PL
$1 trifecta box M, CM, PL


The Woodbine Mile is a $1,000,000 race to be run on Sunday across the border in Canada and will act as a prep for the BC Mile.   Full field of 14 will make for decent betting.  


Courageous Cat at 3-1 is the favorite and rightly so.  2nd to Goldikova in last year's BC Mile has since won 3 times in 5 races only clunker is an excusable race in Dubai.   But lets see if we can beat the favorite as Courageous Cat will like to be on or near pace but the race features Kara's Orientation that needs to be on the lead, actually in last was 17 lengths ahead of field at the 2nd call!! So my guess here is that the pace will be such that you may want to look past the pace setters for a horse that will come from off the pace.  Right One (8-1) has 3 wins in 4 races since coming over from France.  Turralure (5-1) has 10 in-the-money finishes in 14 races including a off-the-pace win at a G2 at Saratoga this summer.  Grand Adventure (8-1) is a flyer...great work out coming into race with top connections...but current form is dodgy.


The Locks
$15 Win Right One
$1 All over RO exacta
$4 WP Turralure
$1 exacta RO, T, GA, CC


Epilogue
Turralure wins. Courageous Cat 2nd.  Right One misses by neck and nose. 
Win of $62.00 Bets of $36.  Net of $26...


Good Luck!!

2011-2012 Champions League - The Locks

Tomorrow, the UEFA Champions League starts up for real and will continue all the way to May 19th when finalists will battle it out in Munich (Munchen).

For last year's finals that featured an unbeatable Barcelona team vs Man U, I was watching the match from Tokyo.   As the match was being played between 3:30am and 6am....it took some doing to find a place that was going to show the match.  I ended up in a bar that I'd been to before aptly named Insomnia in Shibuya.  I've gotten to know the bartender and waitstaff here over the few times I've been there and was drinking with them from about midnight until kickoff ....they didn't have a TV (very few bars in Tokyo actually do) but they did rig up the projector that they had showing Fellini movies for artistic effect to get the match on.   I was happy.....beer flowing, friendly bar staff, huge screen, and no Man U fans (no Barca fans either) - of the 15 or so people in the bar I was the only watching.   The match was 1-1 at half and unfortunately even a bar named Insomnia closes at 5am but there was still half of the match to go.   I was directed to go to a bar that they told me didn't close (24/7) it wasn't  far away but the waitstaff didn't trust I'd find it (difficult to find anything as there are no street names and addresses aren't logical) and actually was a bit concerned about the crowd that may be there and led me to the bar.

Crowd didn't seem that dodgy to me, half gaijin (foreigners - Americans, Brits and Spanish) and half Japanese.   The bar was packed with everyone intent to watch the match.  Well, mostly everyone, as it was about 5am, there were more than 1 or 2 people face down dead alseep at their tables with full beers next to them.   I and the Insomnia waitstaff befriended the Barca fans who were a mix of people actually from Barcelona or those locals who went to school in Spain.    I admit I can speak some Japanese, to the untrained ear it sounds as if I am halfway fluent but, to be honest, to a native speaker I am certainly not, I speak something I'd call Borat Japanese which ranges from overly formal to highly inappropriate speech.   I am at my most fluent after 4 or 5 drinks, anything less I am too self-conscious, anything more I am highly prone to mistakes.  My Japanese is so precarious that our sales team have asked me to not speak Japanese to our clients except for greetings and pleasantries.  For instance, the word for "full" as in "I've eaten enough" is "ippai" but it close to the word that supposedly is slang for breasts "oppai" - I've told people after a big meal thinking I am saying "I am full and can't eat any more" I've said "oppai desu" which could be interpreted as "you have breasts"....not good in any language!

But back watching the Champions League match, at the table next to us there were a table of 4 gruff looking locals that were in track suits that appeared to be rooting for Man U.   They were sitting at a table with several glasses of whiskey, several packs of cigarettes and several ash trays.  As they were Man U fans and the fact I had been drinking for several hours. I engaged in what I thought to be friendly banter on the match.   I remarked, in poor Japanese, that they, in wearing their track suits, looked like the were ready to "play" in the match.  They looked at me like I had 3 heads, I realized only later that in Japanese you "do" a sport but don't "play" one...."play" apparently. has some double meanings.  So my little ice-breaker didn't actually work - also the concept of trash-talking may have gotten lost in translation as well.   I good naturedly wanted to needle the boys on being Man U fans and said something in the lines that by liking Man U they were like school girls that didn't know anything about sport but had heard the name on TV and that Man U should be called Girl U.  Fortunately, the guys seemed highly amused by this - although the others I befriended looked at me horrified - after laughing it out with the guys and buying a round of whiskeys for them.   I was pulled aside and was told the boys in track suits were likely yakuza (Japanese mob) and that I probably should give up on my newly born friendships and stop my Man U bashing.   I'd have none of it - these guys were my new buddies.   I did convince them by match end that Man U was crap and that actually Arsenal was the team they should support.     My missionary work was done.  Barca had won 3-1. Messi played God.  At 6:30am I hopped on a train back to Yurakacho and the train was half-filled with those going home from a long night out.

The Locks has analyzed the group stages

Group A 
 Bayern Munich      
Will not want to miss the home cooking (more like home brew ) in the finals 

 Villarreal              
The "Yellow Submarine" features Rossi, an American turncoat who plays for the Italian national team 

 Manchester City      
Any time Man U can be humbled I am happy...Man City usually the step child will likely win the Premiership this year. 

 Napoli                      
My Italian roots come from near Napoli but this is Napoli's first appearance in the Champions League. 

Locks..........Man City and Bayern move on to knock out round.

Group B 
 Internazionale              
Better known as Inter Milan, 3 time winner of the CL.  

 CSKA Moscow      
Last years tops scorer for the team was a guy called Vagner Love.

 Lille
Mascot is a Mastiff....have England player Joe Cole on loan for the season, my has his star fallen.
                      
 Trabzonspor              
???? sounds like some made up planet name. 

Locks:   Inter, CSKA move to knock out
  
Group C 
 Manchester United      
Girl U, gah! 

 Benfica
Won the European Cup, the competition that pre-dates the CL, 2 times.
              
 Basel 
Town is better known for lending its name to banking standards.
                        
 Oțelul Galați 
For the dessert I will have the......

Locks:  Man U and Benefica  will move on

Group D 
 Real Madrid 
Real Madrid is a 9 time winner of the European championship, 3 times under the CL format.  Can Chrissy boy get them over the hump.


 Lyon 
Their nickname translates out to be "the Kids" think they would be better called the Lions...Lyon Lions sounds better to me.


 Ajax                      
Pronounced "Ai-ax" has 3 European championships including 1 in the CL era.

 Dinamo Zagreb 
Croatian team is in group stage for first time in 12 years.


Locks:  Real and Ajax


Group E 
 Chelsea 
Owner Roman Abramovich nearly bought(bribed?) his way to a CL championship in his home town Moscow only to have John Terry blow a PK.


 Valencia 
Learned in my Spanish class in jr. high that Valencia was known for their naranjas (oranges) so not surprised the team nickname is the Orange.  Always la Liga step-child to Real and Barca.


 Bayer Leverkusen 
Bayer as in the aspirin people.  Fans need the product as the team always seems to be one of Germany's top squads but have been able to win very little hardware.




Genk 
Sounds like what you have when one of your legs isn't properly functioning....like "I've been walking with a genk."

Locks:  Chelski and Valencia will go to final 16.

Group F 
 Arsenal              
Wenger is on the hot seat - Arsenal has made it to the knock out stages for every year since 2000 - will the new transfers help the Gunners continue the streak.


 Marseille 
Club motto is Droit au But...Straight to the Goal...true French squad as I see alot of accents, tilde, cedillas and umlauts on top of the players names.


 Olympiacos              
Used to go to a diner of the same name back in the '90s. 

 Borussia Dortmund 
This German club was CL champion once in the '90s.  Won the Bundesliga last year.

The Locks:  Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund

Group G  
 APOEL 
APOEL translated means Athletic Football Club of Greeks of Nicosia sounds like Borat to me. Cyprus based team made group stage 2 years ago ended up fourth but not smoked.


 Porto 
Portugal's most storied side won the champions league in 2004 in the unlikely final against Prince Albert's AC Monaco 


 Shakhtar Donetsk  
Made it to CL quarters last year, won UEFA Cup a few years ago - so has some success facing international foes


 Zenit St. Petersburg 
Won UEFA Cup a few years ago too. Nickname of team is "Blue White Light Blue" - pretty lame in my book.

Locks: Porto and Shakhtar move on.

Group H 
Barcelona              
Best team has best player (Messi) in the world but now sadly has my favorite player, Cesc Fabregas who returned home after playing for the Gunners from age 16. 


Milan                      
AC Milan is a 7 time European champion seems to be a squad cobbled together from castoffs such as Zlatan, Robinho, Van Brommel etc.


BATE Borisov
Only Belarussian team to make CL, BATE supposed stands for Borisov Works of Automobile and Tractor Electric Equipment....by my calculations it really should say BWATEE.  And also by my calculations, BWATEE sounds alot better than BATE.


Viktoria Plzeň                
Isn't she Rik Ocasiks (the Cars) wife.....think I am dating myself on that reference 

Locks:  AC Milan and Barca move on to knock out rounds

Final 8....Barca, Real Madrid, Man U, Man City, Bayern, Inter, Chelsea, Arsenal

Final 4....Barca, Man U, Bayern, Man City

Final:  Barca to prevail over Man City.

Longchamp 11 Septembre and Centaur Stakes - The Locks

$

There is an impressive card at Longchamp on Sunday.   Essentially a preview to L' Arc day of racing that comes in the beginning of October.   


Here are the races:


Prix Du Petit Couvert (Group 3) (3yo+) 5f
Prix Foy (Group 2) (4yo+) 1m4f
Prix Niel (Group 2) (3yo Colts & Fillies) 1m4f
Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp (Group 1) (3yo+ Colts, F&M) 1m
Prix Vermeille (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m4f
Prix Gladiateur (Group 3) (4yo+) 1m7f110y


Prix Foy
This race is essentially a prep or trial for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.  l'Arc is arguably the third most important race on the calendar during a given year with the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic as the only races that may hold greater prestige.  I am sure one or two French guys would call me a philisitine and say that the l'Arc is actually the most prestigious race in the world....


Either way it is a great race that attracts horses from all over the world.   Prix Foy although only sporting a field of 4 has an very international flavor.  St. Nicholas Abbey (7/2) is Irish trained and has 5 wins in 8 starts..only out of money start was in 2000 Guineas where horse suffered a muscle injury.  Hiruno D'Amour (13/2) is a Japanese horse who won the spring Tenno Sho and has only threw in 2 clunkers in 9 race career. The clunkers were both in 2 classics last year - Tokyo Yushun aka Japanese Derby(unfortunately for me I liked and bet this horse in the Derby) and Japanese St Leger.   Nakayama Festa (6/1) is another horse from Japan who came in 2nd in this race last year as well as placing 2nd in l'Arc but hasn't raced since throwing in a clunker in the Japan Cup.   Sarafina (4/6) is currently the early line favorite for l'Arc.   5 wins in 8 races... including the Group 1 Prix de Saint-Cloud in June although horse could be beatable chalk since at one point lost 3 races in a row all at Longchamp.   


Tough to bet on a 4 horse field but with beatable chalk will go with 
$10 Win on St Nicholas Abbey


Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp
This is a flat mile Group 1 race.   The Locks do like the favorite, Excelebration,  in this one,  even at 7/4, 4 wins in 7 starts although have to discount the 3 losses as 2 were when racing against Frankel and the other was the horses debut start.  But for value lets look at Zoffany 10-1, clunker in last was on a 6+f sprint that was in contention and then lost lead and jockey wrapped up on the horse to race another day.  Horse, I feel, is better suited at 7f/8f.  Tin Horse 9-1, had 2 good races at Longchamp this spring.  Can discount loss when stretching out in French Derby and in last probably spotted field too much.


Locks are:
$20 Win Excelebration
$5 WP Zoffany
$2 Exacta Excelebration, Zoffany, Tin Horse


Prix Niel
Also will be a preview of horses that will run the l'Arc but this race is restricted to 3yos.  Meandre is even money favorite...odds are unfortunate because the Locks do like this horse because of its 2 win at same distance and same course.  For value there is Fabre's other horse in King of Arnor 16-1 riding 3 race win streak albeit at less than Group stakes company.  2 wins at 12furlong and if rain comes to Paris will make the going better for this one.  Reliable Man 7-4 won the French Derby but smoked by Meandre in last.  Nakayama Knight 14-1 comes in from Japan and could contend.


$20 win Meandre
$5 WP King of Arnor
$2 exacta Meandre, KofA, NK 




Prix Vermeille
Race features the sister to super race mare miler Goldikova in Galikova who has 4 wins in 6 starts including black type wins.  Can she stretch out to 12 furlongs is a big enough question when you are getting less than even money on return.  Value will be with Shareta 6-1, who is coming in race off of 2 wins including winning at course and distance on Bastille Day.  Also has a win this year over Galikova.  


$10 Win Shareta
$2 Exacta all over Shareta


Good luck!! Merde!  Bonne chance!


Epilogue
Prix Fox: Sarafina wins, St. Nicholas Abbey 3rd.  Net -$10
Prix du Moulin: Excelebration wins, Zoffany scratches, Tin Horse 7th.  Net +$44
Prix Niel: Meandre 2nd.  Net -$42
Prix Vermeile:  Shareta 3rd. Net -$20


Also to add to the international flavor of the card at Longchamp going to throw in the Locks for GII Centaur Stakes at Hanshin Race Course in Japan.   The Centaur is a 6 furlong sprint race is a prep for the Sprinters Stakes, which will be the first Group 1 race since the spring in Japan.


T.M. Ootaka appears to be the only real speed in the race - can the horse hold on to win.  Lucky Nine has a solid resume in HK - can continue success in Japan? A Shin Virgo has won 3 times in last 4 races.  Dasher GoGo a bet down favorite will come from well off pace and will need a solid pace to do so...with TM Ootaka the only committed speed and juicy odds elsewhere will limit my bet to exotics on the fav.



◎  　9　A Shin Virgo    エーシンヴァーゴウ 9.3-1
○ 　13　Lucky Nine      ラッキーナイン        18.0-1
▲　5　  T. M> Ootaka  テイエムオオタカ 7.9-1
△ 　14　Dasher GoGo ダッシャーゴーゴー 1.9-1

Lets Bet $10 Win A Shin Virgo, $1 Exacta & Trifecta Box on #9,#13,#5,#14 lets also go $5WP on #5

Epilogue
Nailed this one!!  #9 wins, #13 2nd, #14 3rd, #5 5th.....less than a head from a superfecta!


Bets $56 Win $64 + $84.60 + $262.90 = $411.50  Net $355.50





Good Luck....

2011 St. Leger Stakes - The Locks

Saturday, we have the third leg of the English Triple Crown, the St. Leger Stakes.   The race is a grueling 14 furlongs or 1 3/4 miles and is raced at Doncaster.   As monster horse, Frankel won the 2,000 Guineas and recently retired, Pour Moi won the Epsom Derby, there is certainly no Triple Crown on the line on Saturday.  No horse has won or even fully competed for the Triple Crown since Nijinsky pulled off the unlikely trifecta in 1970.  



The owners of the field are quite interesting...

• Brown Panther 14-1 is owned by once soccer star Michael Owen.....hmmm I guess he is still in the league playing for that collective group of losers called Man U or as I like to say sometimes, Girl U.
• Buthelezi 100-1 is owned by Princess Haya of Jordan
• Seville 10-1 is owned by former bookie now billionaire, Michael Tabor and Coolmore Stud
• Sea Moon 2-1 is owned by Saudi Prince Khalid Abudulla's Juddmonte racing operations
• Blue Bunting 7-2, Genius Beast 50-1, & Ruhm 200-1 are owned by Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin racing stable

While the two horses I find the most intriguing (from a betting standpoint) have more ordinary owners, Census 6-1 is owned by a syndicate where you can get into ownership at around $10,000 while Masked Marvel 7-1 is owned by Bjorn Nielsen, a Greenwich CT private equity guy with Anglo roots.

Census and Masked Marvel are the only horses in field with wins over 12 furlongs.  Census has not been worse than 2nd since its maiden race and has jock Richard Hughes in the saddle.   Census and Masked Marvel both have to use their speed tactically.  The 2 favorites Sea Moon and Blue Bunting will come off the pace and will be aided by the addition of rabbit Ruhm in the field.  If Census and MM can let Ruhm run herself out, they may be able to hold off the favorites.

The Locks are:
$10 Win Census
$1 Exacta All over Census
$2 Exacta Census, MM, SM, BB
$5 WP Masked Marvel

Good Luck!!

Wide World of Sports Locks - ASP Tour on Long Island/2011 Rugby World Cup

This weekend we truly of have a Wide World of Sports Locks 


On Long Island, the ASP Pro Surfer tour will conclude the $1,000,000 Quicksilver Pro NY tournament.   The ASP tour features the top 36 surfers in the world and this year the tour was in Australia, Rio de Janeiro, Tahiti, South Africa and now Long Island!   Actually, this is the first time that the tour has been on the East Coast of the US.   


Before the competition the Locks picked: Josh Kerr, 10-time champ Kelly Slater, Brazilian Alejo Muniz and Aussie Bede Durbridge for the Final 4.....Durbridge was done in by on onshore wind and couldn't shred up the Long Beach waves like I thought but the as of right now, Kerr, Slater and Muniz all have put themselves into the quarter-finals.     


The Locks likes a Kerr v Muniz finals with the Aussie Kerr taking home the lion's share of the loot... 


In New Zealand, the 2011 Rugby World Cup starts up.   Here was have 20 teams battling across New Zealand to reach the October 23rd finals at Eden Park.   To sense how remote New Zealand is one can look at the music acts that they brought in for the opening ceremonies... Maroon 5, in my book, their music is pop drivel and Adam Levine's musical highlight will be his vocal's on Kanye's "Heard Em Say", Selena Gomez, 'nuff said, Japanese "hip hop" band Home Made Kozoku (Family),  can't vouch on the quality of their music but guessing from the name of the band alone they are manufactured by some J-pop machine and are as "hip hop" as Brian Williams from NBC News.   


The Rugby World Cup similar to the Football(Soccer) one where you have a group stage and then single elimination tournament.   The Locks are in and like: 


Pool A 
New Zealand....the "All Blacks" are the hosts and the team to beat 
France .... sacre bleu 


Pool B 
England.....like Mets fans talking about '86, England supporters can't stop talking about Johnny Wilkinson and their 2003 RWC victory. 
Scotland....nothing would scare me more than going into a pub in Glasgow and pissing off the Scottish National Rugby team 


Pool C 
Australia.....picked up a bunch of "Wallibie" gear in Oz in June 
Ireland.....if it wasn't the Queen's sport, Ireland would have a stronger squad. 


Pool D 
South Africa......Matt Damon going to suit up for this one? 
Samoa... American Samoa with a population of 69,000 sends 30 players to the NFL.  The independent country of Samoa has a population of 179,000 and if you extrapolate out the #s, Samoa should have 78 world class "football-type" atheletes at the ready. 


In the elimination stages the Locks predicts: 


Quarterfinals 
Australia over Samoa......Samoa is also a tasty Indian appetizer
England over France........Waterloo redux...
South Africa over Ireland.....the Irish wanted some time to visit the Kiwi pubs
New Zealand over Scotland.....the Scottish team wanted some time to visit the Kiwi pubs


Semi-finals 
Australia over England 
New Zealand over South Africa 


and in an epic 'down under' finals the Wallibies will upset the host All Blacks

Kokura Nisai & Niigata Nisai Stakes - The Locks

Sunday, there are 2 graded stakes races in Japan.  At Kokura, there is the Kokura Nisai Stakes going 6 furlongs and the field of 13 is attracting a mix of colts and fillies.  

At Niigata, there is the Niigata Nisai Stakes going 1 mile with a field of 18.  Ni=2 Sai=years old...so these are both races for 2yos.  Big competitive fields like these are why its great to bet on Japanese racing....trying to figure out how to do that stateside as it is impossible for a foreigner to get a JRA Wins (Japanese OTB) online account.  

In the race at Kokura,  #1 Oken Hanamizuki オウケンハナミズキ (5-1) comes in with the fastest 6 furlong time and is complimented by fact that horse that came in 2nd in her last win came back to win.  #11 Makoto Reversal マコトリヴァーサル (2.5-1)won madien by 5 lengths and it was another 4 lengths to 3rd place.  The 2nd place finisher in that race came back to win a race that was open to winners, 3yos ran a slower 6f time later in the day.  #10 Epice Arome エピセアローム (6.5-1) has run twice at a mile a 2nd and a win so could be better at going longer but maybe talented enough to place at 6f.  #4 Kinshi Two Stone キンシツーストン (18-1) won a 5 furlong maiden race by an impressive 6 lengths. 

◎  01 Oken Hanamizuki 

 ○  11 Makoto Reversal

▲ 10 Epice Arome

△ 04 Kinshi Two Stone

Lets go $10 W on #1 $1 exacta all over #1, $5WP 11, $1 Exacta box 1,11,10, 4

$1 Trifecta box 1,11,10,4 $2 Place Quinella 1,11,10,4

A bit chalky.

Epilogue

#10 Epice Arome wins, #11 Makoto Reversal 2nd...unfortunately they were 2nd and 1st in betting interests and in Japan the favorites get beat down.   "A bit chalky" is an understatement. 

Bets $80  Wins 6.50 + 5.60 + 2.40  Net -$65.50

In Niigita, 18 colts and fillies will go 1 mile. #5 Ninja ニンジャ(6.8-1) as a 2yo ran 7f faster than 2 sets of older horses that ran on same card.  #16 Meisho Hagekure メイショウハガクレ(41-1) already has won against winners at 6f.  Pedigree suggests could stretch out to a mile just fine.   #11 Just a Way, ジャスタウェイ(2.7-1), won maiden race at 1 mile by 5 lengths.  Winning time held up well against other horses running that day.   #12 Prenotato プレノタート (41-1) has experience against racing against winners and should move forward from that race.  Time of winning race is solid against older horses racing

later in same card.

◎  05 Ninja

 ○  16 Meisho Hagekure

▲ 11 Just a Way

△ 12 Prenotato  

$10 WP 5, $4 WP 16, $1 Trifecta 5,16,11,12 $1 Exacta 5,16,11,12  $1 Place Quinella 5,6,11,12

Epilogue

# 11 the favorite came in 2nd.  Ninja, Meisho Hagekure and Prenotato didn't fire at all.

Bets $ 60 Win $0...goose egg!!  Net -$60.

Good Luck!!

September 3rd 2011 Saratoga - The Locks

Handicapping the last weekend of Saratoga has that same feeling I had during my Bayview School days during the last week of August... visits to Jimmy's Barber Shop -- run ably (still!!!) by the wigged Angelo, Suffolk Stores for school supplies, and then a visit to South Shore Mall Foot Locker - the year I got the dark blue suede Puma Clydes was awesome.   These are the signs that summer is about to end....maybe post-Irene for many the realities of damage clean up shocked you back into reality from summer bliss a week earlier than you'd want to be. 

Have 3 Grade 1s going on Saturday.


Person Ensign Invitational - 1 1/4m - F&M 3yo+
2-1 Ask the Moon is certainly beatable.  Although the Ruffian steal on fairly quick fractions was an impressive race.  It was this mare's only win in 2 years. Lets go Pachattack, the only horse that has won (or even has raced) at the distance.  Been working well for this one too.  I am not overly thrilled with the others.


$5 Win Pachattack
$1 exacta Pachattack over all
$1 exacta all over Pachattack


Epilogue
Ask the Moon wins, Pachattack 2nd.
Bets $15 Win $9.50 Net -$5.50


The Forego, 7f, 3yo+
Field has quite a few horses that have an identity crisis....can't figure out at what distance they are good at.   A couple of 6furlong horses looking to stretch and a number of routers looking to cut back.    Jackson Bend, 5-2, has been routing but certainly found that 7 furlongs may be to the colt's liking as impressively won at the distance at the Spa in July.  Actually is 2 for 2 at the distance.   That score earned JB a 111 Locks Speed Index. Also has been working lights out.  
Golddigger's Boy 15-1 is a neck shy of a perfect 6 for 6 in 2011 including 2 wins at 7f.   Will get a good price because is shipping in from Philly but racing for a trainer that is winning at nearly a 30% clip.   Working well for the race.


The Locks are:
Jackson Bend $10 WP
Golddiggers Boy $5WP
$4 exacta box JB/GB


Epilogue
Jackson Bend wins impressively. Golddiggers Boy went to knees at start had to be hustled to keep in contact with field - got into contention during stretch but faded.
Bet $38 Win $44.50+$24  Net = +$30.50


Woodward, 1 1/8m 3yo+
Race features super racemare Havre de Grace 8-5 running against the boys for first time.  In getting less than 5-2 I always like to look elsewhere for value.  Here is an interesting one.....Mambo Meister at 10-1, 2 for 3 in last 3 at Calder but Locks Speed Index in last 3 are an astonishing, 119,115 and 114. Flat Out at 5/2 has a good resume with a win in the Suburban and placing in the Whitney.   Rule 5-1 won at distance/track in early August even after being floated out 5 wide. 


The Locks are
$1 exacta MM over all
$1 exacta all over MM
$2 exacta box FO,R,MM, HdG
$1 trifecta box FO, R, MM, HdG


Epilogue
Mambo Meister outclassed. Harve de Grace beats the boys. Flat Out 2nd. Rule 3rd.
Bet $38 Win $17 + $25.50 Net +$4.50


Good Luck!!!

2011 Irish Champion Stakes - The Locks

On Saturday, at Leopardstown, Ireland that is, we have 2 Group 1 races, including the Irish Champion Stakes.  Leopardstown is not named "Leopard's town" as if there were big game cats running around the Irish countryside....Ireland has some rabbits and foxes but the wildlife doesn't include  leopards nor lions or tigers or jaguars, to speak of.  But Leopardstown comes from the Irish, Baile na Lobhar, meaning "Town of the Lepers".   I'd say its a bit an uninviting name. So possibly that is why the Leopardstown chamber of commerce built the racecourse in the 1880s....possibly to attract the non-lepers down the coast from Dublin.   Now...begs the question as to when the non-lepers came to Leopardstown....did they get treated lie 'lepers"??


In all my travels, I've been treated very well.....although there is one place that I've been treated like a "leper" not so subtly which I will expand on at a later date...for now I will stick to racing...


As to the races.....the Matron Stakes is a race for fillies and mares going a flat mile and it features 11/8 favorite, Misty for Me, who has already won 4 Group 1 races including winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh.  I actually will look for Lolly for Dolly, 9-1 to provide some value.  LforD has raced either first or 2nd in every race in 2011 except for its last race where a new jock was riding the filly.  WM Lordan is back in saddle and the horse should be back to winning ways.  Emulous at 4-1 also provides alot of value for a horse that has only been once out of the money in 9 tries and that race was the filly was returning from lay-off...has won last 2 since including beating LforD.   11/2 Together can't be overlooked because both of her wins came at Leopardstown and has 2 place finishes in the English and Irish1,000 Guineas.


For the Locks, lets go 


$10 Win on LforD
$ 1 exacta all over LforD


$4 WP Emulous


$2 exacta Emulous, LforD, Together


In the Irish Champion Stakes we have a short field of 6 with a heavy 1/3 favorite in So You Think.  So You Think is beatable just as I thought at Ascot where the Australian import was beat at 4/11 odds - problem was I was backing Planteur while Rewilding won.  In this race I will need to make the stand against the chalk.  Take into fact also no horse other than an Irish trained horse has won this race since 2002.  I am going to look no further than Famous Name at 12 -1.  In 2011, 4 wins, 6 in the $ finishes in 6 starts...Also the 6yo loves Leopardstown in 12 tries on the course, the horse has won 9 times!!


The Locks are:
$10 win FN
$1 exacta FN over all


Not a lot of permutations here actually will only cash ticket if FN wins...thats why they call it gambling!!


Epilogue
Emulous wins the Matron Stakes impressively.  Together is 2nd. 
Bets $37 Win $24.40 + $9.20 + $60.80 Net +$57.40


Favorite wins a close one but Famous Name 3rd.
Bet $15 Win $0 Net -$15






Good Luck!!