Friday, September 23, 2011

Japan Grade 2s - September 25th - The Locks

Sunday in Japan, there are 2 Grade II races that will act as preps for Grade Is this fall.  


At Nakayama, there is the Sankei Sho All Comers Stakes
(オールカマー )which is a 1 3/8m race for 3yo+.  Race features winner of G1 Takarakuzuka Kinen, Ernestly アーネストリー.  That G1 run in June was the last G1 on the calendar with the next being run next weekend....only 21 G1s are run during the year in Japan, so their importance is magnified.  Ernestly(1.5-1), has won 9 times, and has been in the money 16 times in a 20 race career. Has only raced once at Nakayama before which was one of its out of the money finishes.  Lets look at 2 others to get some value.  Makoto Galaxyマコトギャラクシー (17-1) likes the Nakayama track where it has raced 11 times in its 18 race career and has each of its 4 career wins on the track.  Will come off the pace to try to win this one.  Caliburn カリバーン(4.5-1) has won at this track at the same distance.  Last race placed 5th but was coming off a layoff and was trying graded company for the first time...but will improve from there.


This race will act as prep for the important G1s such as the Tenno Sho Aki and the Japan Cup that take place in October and November respectively.  In Japan handicappers use the symbols to indicate the horses they like in following order 
◎  ○ ▲ △ ...in small field, in Japanese terms, of 9, I am only picking my top 3.



◎  Makoto Galaxy
○  Ernestly
▲ Caliburn



Epilogue
Ernestly wins, Caliburn 3rd, Makoto Galaxy 5th.
$10 Win MG, $1 Exacta All over  MG,  $5 WP Calibrn, $1 exacta and $1 trifecta, MG, E, C.

The other G2 is the Kobe Shimbun Hai (神戸新聞杯)aka Japanese St. Leger Trial, being run at the Hanshin race course which is in between the cities of Kobe and Osaka.  This race is a prep for  the 3rd leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the Kikuka Sho (aka the Japanese St Leger) to be run in October.    The race features a top field of 3yos including the winner, Orfevre (1.7-1) オルフェーヴル and runner up, Win Variation(3.9-1) ウインバリアシオン in the Japan Derby.  Also in the field is Cresco Grande(13-1) クレスコグランド the horse I loved in the Derby only to come a hard charging neck short of third...if the horse hit the board I would have won about a $1200+ trifecta among other bets.  These 3 all have been on the shelf since the Derby and if they aren't sharp Carmine (87-1!!)could have a shot, Carmine won at track and distance in a decent time of 2:25 in April.

◎  Cresco Grande
○ Win Variation
▲ Orfevre
△ Carmine


$10 win Cresco Grande....$5 place Cresco Grande.  $5WP Carmine $1 exacta and $1 trifecta CG,WV,O,C.


Epilogue
Cresco Grande scratches.  Orfevre wins, Win Variation 2nd.  Carmine 10th.


Good luck!!

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