Longchamp 11 Septembre and Centaur Stakes - The Locks

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There is an impressive card at Longchamp on Sunday.   Essentially a preview to L' Arc day of racing that comes in the beginning of October.   


Here are the races:


Prix Du Petit Couvert (Group 3) (3yo+) 5f
Prix Foy (Group 2) (4yo+) 1m4f
Prix Niel (Group 2) (3yo Colts & Fillies) 1m4f
Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp (Group 1) (3yo+ Colts, F&M) 1m
Prix Vermeille (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m4f
Prix Gladiateur (Group 3) (4yo+) 1m7f110y


Prix Foy
This race is essentially a prep or trial for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.  l'Arc is arguably the third most important race on the calendar during a given year with the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic as the only races that may hold greater prestige.  I am sure one or two French guys would call me a philisitine and say that the l'Arc is actually the most prestigious race in the world....


Either way it is a great race that attracts horses from all over the world.   Prix Foy although only sporting a field of 4 has an very international flavor.  St. Nicholas Abbey (7/2) is Irish trained and has 5 wins in 8 starts..only out of money start was in 2000 Guineas where horse suffered a muscle injury.  Hiruno D'Amour (13/2) is a Japanese horse who won the spring Tenno Sho and has only threw in 2 clunkers in 9 race career. The clunkers were both in 2 classics last year - Tokyo Yushun aka Japanese Derby(unfortunately for me I liked and bet this horse in the Derby) and Japanese St Leger.   Nakayama Festa (6/1) is another horse from Japan who came in 2nd in this race last year as well as placing 2nd in l'Arc but hasn't raced since throwing in a clunker in the Japan Cup.   Sarafina (4/6) is currently the early line favorite for l'Arc.   5 wins in 8 races... including the Group 1 Prix de Saint-Cloud in June although horse could be beatable chalk since at one point lost 3 races in a row all at Longchamp.   


Tough to bet on a 4 horse field but with beatable chalk will go with 
$10 Win on St Nicholas Abbey


Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp
This is a flat mile Group 1 race.   The Locks do like the favorite, Excelebration,  in this one,  even at 7/4, 4 wins in 7 starts although have to discount the 3 losses as 2 were when racing against Frankel and the other was the horses debut start.  But for value lets look at Zoffany 10-1, clunker in last was on a 6+f sprint that was in contention and then lost lead and jockey wrapped up on the horse to race another day.  Horse, I feel, is better suited at 7f/8f.  Tin Horse 9-1, had 2 good races at Longchamp this spring.  Can discount loss when stretching out in French Derby and in last probably spotted field too much.


Locks are:
$20 Win Excelebration
$5 WP Zoffany
$2 Exacta Excelebration, Zoffany, Tin Horse


Prix Niel
Also will be a preview of horses that will run the l'Arc but this race is restricted to 3yos.  Meandre is even money favorite...odds are unfortunate because the Locks do like this horse because of its 2 win at same distance and same course.  For value there is Fabre's other horse in King of Arnor 16-1 riding 3 race win streak albeit at less than Group stakes company.  2 wins at 12furlong and if rain comes to Paris will make the going better for this one.  Reliable Man 7-4 won the French Derby but smoked by Meandre in last.  Nakayama Knight 14-1 comes in from Japan and could contend.


$20 win Meandre
$5 WP King of Arnor
$2 exacta Meandre, KofA, NK 




Prix Vermeille
Race features the sister to super race mare miler Goldikova in Galikova who has 4 wins in 6 starts including black type wins.  Can she stretch out to 12 furlongs is a big enough question when you are getting less than even money on return.  Value will be with Shareta 6-1, who is coming in race off of 2 wins including winning at course and distance on Bastille Day.  Also has a win this year over Galikova.  


$10 Win Shareta
$2 Exacta all over Shareta


Good luck!! Merde!  Bonne chance!


Epilogue
Prix Fox: Sarafina wins, St. Nicholas Abbey 3rd.  Net -$10
Prix du Moulin: Excelebration wins, Zoffany scratches, Tin Horse 7th.  Net +$44
Prix Niel: Meandre 2nd.  Net -$42
Prix Vermeile:  Shareta 3rd. Net -$20


Also to add to the international flavor of the card at Longchamp going to throw in the Locks for GII Centaur Stakes at Hanshin Race Course in Japan.   The Centaur is a 6 furlong sprint race is a prep for the Sprinters Stakes, which will be the first Group 1 race since the spring in Japan.


T.M. Ootaka appears to be the only real speed in the race - can the horse hold on to win.  Lucky Nine has a solid resume in HK - can continue success in Japan? A Shin Virgo has won 3 times in last 4 races.  Dasher GoGo a bet down favorite will come from well off pace and will need a solid pace to do so...with TM Ootaka the only committed speed and juicy odds elsewhere will limit my bet to exotics on the fav.



◎  　9　A Shin Virgo    エーシンヴァーゴウ 9.3-1
○ 　13　Lucky Nine      ラッキーナイン        18.0-1
▲　5　  T. M> Ootaka  テイエムオオタカ 7.9-1
△ 　14　Dasher GoGo ダッシャーゴーゴー 1.9-1

Lets Bet $10 Win A Shin Virgo, $1 Exacta & Trifecta Box on #9,#13,#5,#14 lets also go $5WP on #5

Epilogue
Nailed this one!!  #9 wins, #13 2nd, #14 3rd, #5 5th.....less than a head from a superfecta!


Bets $56 Win $64 + $84.60 + $262.90 = $411.50  Net $355.50





Good Luck....