After coming off a tough 2 days handicapping, the best thing about horseracing is that there is another day to bet.
Coming to the Spa at Saratoga is a great day and although August packs in alot of other things that you'd like to do, Saratoga should be on everyone's calendar. Suggestion is to get up the night before.....I made a bit of a tactical error last weekend...I took a train up to Albany...which is very easy and the views of the Hudson River Valley from the train are absolutely beautiful at dusk and this was not a mistake at all. My mistake was in staying in downtown Albany and then looking for a place to get something to eat at around 10:30 at night. I saw a "Jillians" which to me meant a good sports bar where I could set myself up at the bar with the next day's racing form to handicap and also watch some baseball with a plate of boneless (can't eat anything on a bone) chicken wings and a nice cold beer.
My plan was quickly disrupted as I had to weave my way through some tussle that was going on outside the bar to faced with a young bouncer who actually made me produce some ID. Once inside I realized that this Jillians is much different than the ones I've seen in places like Charlotte NC or watched the US vs Algeria World Cup match in SF -- it was something of a club...not like a "can I provide you a jacket and tie, sir" club but a "dzzzzt dzzzzt dzzzzt" club - complete with a calvacade of the biggest collection of meatheads I've seen since days at the Oak Beach Inn. It was like the cast and crew of Jersey Shore had been dropped into the Capital district but given extra doses of 'roids and a mountain of blow. I actually feared for my life as I tried to make my way to the bar past a phalanx of these losers and actually got a stare down as I dared to order a beer at the bar. I slugged down the beer fast and made a hasty exit. Ugh! Other local places that I thought I could grab some quick pub food were much of the same. So I retreated back to my hotel which didn't have room service to offer after midnight...was able to handicap some more as I had difficulty sleeping. Not to sound like a snob but with my frequent travel for work - I am not used to staying at hotels that are less than 5 stars and the Capital City Marriott/Radisson/Doubletree/Whatever was 2 stars short of my usual comfort zone. But....besides this tactical error it is good to get up the night before because you do want to start your day at Saratoga early. Will fill in more on what you plan to do at the Spa before/during and after the races in subsequent posts....but lets get to today's card.....a challenging card that features 6!!! maiden races.
1st race....#1 Monastir at 7/2 won at this distance and course last year vs tougher competition, #5 Millennium Jet 10-1, when going 1m or 1 1/16m on turf this year has 4 in the $$ starts against similar.
2nd race...MSW for NYS bred 2yos...#1 Little Dale 7-2 comes back for Big Dale Romans to take next step after a place debut, #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1, also looks to step up after runner-up debut. #7 Jaw Crusher, 5-1, has good works for debut but for trainer that doesn't debut well.
3rd race...short field not much value to be had....#1 at 2-1 Wall Dance and #3 at 7-2 Gallant Fields have just as much chance as winning as chalk #2, 9/5 Quality Counsel.
4th race...Maiden Claiming, have 7 of 9 horses that were no closer than 6 lengths from winner in last race, the other 2 are #1 6-1 Lemon Ghost racing for the Foster Grant Kid (DWLukas) and #2 4-1 Mr Popps --- can't see to where else put my money.
5th race...#8 Simbamangu 6-1, was 7th in last race, which was on turf at Saratoga but was only 2+ lengths off of win. #6 Imaging at 3-1, looks like an obvious choice from Shug's barn, #1 Suprise Strike at 12-1 could pick up a piece.
6th race...#1 Superstructure, 5-1, good works from a good debut barn which is a good combo, #4, How Do I Win, 3-1, Pletcher's charge had a debut 3rd wants to move on from there. #7 Burned Bridges, 8-1, Bernadini colt has good works for Kiaran who usually doesn't tighten the screws on 1sters.
7th race....#10 Dullan 6-1, Romans does well with first timers on turf and this horse has luxury of 2 starts already #9 Actuarial, has turf pedigree to win in future on the green but is the colt ready today? #4 Our Midnight Run at 6-1, hmmmm..
8th race...#2 Karakorum Legend, 8-1 has success on course as well at distance, #7 Screenplay, 9/2, has recent success and good success at distance. #6 Unaccountable, 4-1, looks to make it 4 in a row.
9th race...#3 Power Blast, 5/2, Linda Rice is the queen of turf sprints, #9 Isntlovegrand, 12-1 showed can win at distance/course recently, #8 Out of Your Mind at 30-1 could be a good flyer since had trouble in last and won turf sprint at Belmont recently.
10th race...G1, Sword Dancer, 1 1/2m on turf....Can #3 Rahy's Attorney at 8-1 steal it on front end..#8 Winchester, 5/2 is horse to beat because not sure Teak's North away from Monmouth is worth it at 3-1
11th race.....not very good horses that at this late hour are hard to differentiate...think may go all over all and hope some longshots hit the exacta.
Now for the Locks:
Race 1.... $6 W #5, $3 PL #5, $3 WP #1, $1 DD #1, #5 with #1, #3, #7.... Bets = $21
Race 2.... $7 W #1, $1 all/#1, $1 ex #1,#3,#7 ....Bets = $20
Race 3.... $3 W #3, $1 DD #1, #2, #3 with #1, #2... Bets = $9
Race 4... $1 exacta #1, #2 over all. $1 exacta all over #1, #2 Bets = $32
Race 5... $1 DD #8, #6, #1 with #1, #4, #7 $6 WP #8, $3 WP #6... Bets = $27
Race 6... $ 1 exacta #1 with all, $1 exacta all with #1 Bets = $16
Race 7... $ 1 exacta #10, #9, #4, $1 trifecta #10,#9,#4 Bets = $12
Race 8... $ 10 win #7, $5 win #2, $1 exacta #7, #2, #6 $1 DD #7, #2, #6 with #3, #9, #8. Bets = $30
Race 9... $ 5 WP #8, $10 W #3...$1 DD #3, #9, #8 with #3, #8 .Bets = $26
Race 10...$ 10 W #3, $5 WP #8
Race 11... conditional bet....if up or less than $40 down, lets walk away....if more lets play some roulette $1 exacta all over all... $121 bet...
Good Luck!!!
Epilogue
Hit a couple of exactas and a daily double and a couple of winners...on $187 of bets returned $189+ of bets.....
Now if we made the Race 11 all over all bet.... it paid box cars!!!... $541 for a $1 exacta where we would have made $121 bet for a net of $420!!!
Cluttering the internet with views on sports, politics, music and the whole wide world we live in.....
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Friday, August 12, 2011
Locks crushing the Koshien Tournament
Here is my Koshien Tournament bracket to date....30 games, 23 wins, 7 losses!!!! To be honest I really didn't know what I was doing except knowing some city names....I wish I knew how I can bet this thing.....anyone?? Or do people fill out brackets like for March Madness and do pools with friends/colleagues?
Saratoga August 12th - The Locks
We continue to handicap the Spa even after a humbling day at the track on Thursday...humbling --kind of like if I was given my own credit downgrade. But as the saying goes "you have to get back up on that horse"
1st race....Successful Score(5/2), 3 place finishes in 5 tries in 2011, Power King(3/1), success at lower levels
2nd race...Almoradi(7/2), an Irish bred horse, 4 of 6 in the $$ finishes in 2011, City Sneakers(5/1) can win it off the front end, The Vin Man(6/1), outlasted City Sneakers recently.
3rd race...McCarren Park(4/1), comes in from barn that can win at 1st asking, Hard Mystery(2/1), OK works, OK 1st time trainer %
4th race...Senora Dubai(3/1), trouble in each of 3 tries, Stray Bullet(4/1), 9th time could be the charm(?), switch back to dirt may help.
5th race....Floating Alone(6/1), Starsihoutte (4/1), Ms Stileto (5/2) one of these will win.
6th race...Rothko, 2nd race off layoff, Deed It Is, will need better start but could be in mix at end.
7th race...Humble and Hungry(5-1), in $$ in all except BC, Crimson China(7/2), hopes to rebound from Va Derby....8/5 favorite is beatable as may get into pace contest.
8th race...Coronation Day (7/2)...can come off pace...already 3 or 4 will prompt pace, at 15-1 willing to give System Restore a try despite being a madien on turf.
9th race...Another Please, Hoopskirt, English Ivy are the obvious choices...
1st race....Successful Score(5/2), 3 place finishes in 5 tries in 2011, Power King(3/1), success at lower levels
2nd race...Almoradi(7/2), an Irish bred horse, 4 of 6 in the $$ finishes in 2011, City Sneakers(5/1) can win it off the front end, The Vin Man(6/1), outlasted City Sneakers recently.
3rd race...McCarren Park(4/1), comes in from barn that can win at 1st asking, Hard Mystery(2/1), OK works, OK 1st time trainer %
4th race...Senora Dubai(3/1), trouble in each of 3 tries, Stray Bullet(4/1), 9th time could be the charm(?), switch back to dirt may help.
5th race....Floating Alone(6/1), Starsihoutte (4/1), Ms Stileto (5/2) one of these will win.
6th race...Rothko, 2nd race off layoff, Deed It Is, will need better start but could be in mix at end.
7th race...Humble and Hungry(5-1), in $$ in all except BC, Crimson China(7/2), hopes to rebound from Va Derby....8/5 favorite is beatable as may get into pace contest.
8th race...Coronation Day (7/2)...can come off pace...already 3 or 4 will prompt pace, at 15-1 willing to give System Restore a try despite being a madien on turf.
9th race...Another Please, Hoopskirt, English Ivy are the obvious choices...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Saratoga August 11th - The Locks
8/11/11 Saratoga...
1st...2 1/16 mile over the jumps...
Lonesome Nun, good form, Upper Gulch, recent win vs similar.
2nd...1 1/8m CL20k,
Awesome Review, came off pace to win at CD, Cinder Cone, should win if doesn't get too much pressure on the front end.
3rd...7f, 3yoF
Not much value here. Sharp Tongue Lady & Henny's Hurricane are the Locks.
4th...6f, OptCl, Hillswick, having good year, Stormin Bud, 6wins at dist, Radiohead is the class of the field but may leave you high+dry.
5th...1 1/16 turf, Madien 2yoF
Bellamy Roadster will be the chalk, may try Langsyne or Bye Love You to beat her.
6th...1mile MdCl,
a bunch of losers, the average beaten length in last race is 15+ lengths, give love to Casanova Giant and Forty Tears.
7th...5.5f, Stks,3yoF,
chalk Funny Sunny is beatable..Doing Great + Ms Cruisen' + Don't Be Shy I'll Buy could hit the winner's circle.
8th...1m turf, stks(NY), 3yo,
Hessionite most obvious choice, Freud's Honor +Darrin's Dilemma could contend.
9th...1 1/16 MdCl 2yo
Speightcity, Chanttoomuch, Golden Noble in that order.
10th...1mile turf, Claimer,
Leadwithyourchin, I like this horse the most, Midnite Silver, has G1 experience
The Locks
1st..$5 WP #3..
$2Daily Double #3,#8 & #4,#2,
$1 Pick 3, #3,#8 & #4,#2, & #1,#3
2nd $5 WP #4
3rd $5 WP #3
4th $6 W #2
$3 Pl #2
$3 Ex #1,2
$1 Daily Double #1,#2 & #7, #1, #6
5th...$5 WP #7
6th...$1 ex #10, #3 over all
$1 GS 4,10,&1,2,5&2,5,7&1,7,9
7th....$8 W #1
$1 ex all over #1,
$.50 Pick 4, #1,#2,#5 & #2,#5,#7 & #1, #7, #9 & #6,#10
8th...$10 W 7..
$5 PL 7..
$1 ex 2,5,7
9th..$5 WP #1,
$1ex #1,7,9
10th..$8 W #10,
$1ex all over 10
Epilogue....
Bets -$26 -$10 -$10 - $21 - $10 - $52 - $18 - $21 +$24.5 + $6.50 + $8.50 - $16 - $16 = -$177.50
Ugh!!! Ugh!!! Only cashed ticket on one race and that was on the chalk.....named winners in only 3 of the 10 races. Humbling day at the races....
Saratoga August 10th The Locks are on Twitter
Again, arguably, the best race meeting in the world continues at the Spa. Today's races aren't exactly world class but do have a number of G1 runners that make up the field in some of the lowest class races of the whole meet.
Saratoga, Wed. 8/10..
1st Race, 5.5f turf,NYS bred, Opt Claiming.
Compliance Officer in the only legit pace in the field, Silver Timber, is a 2x BCTurf Sprinter
2nd Race...2yo Maiden Claimers
Mayville, 2nd race, who is sired by Straight Man, a son of Saint Ballado, I remember pulling him out of his stall to take a look at that horse as a yearling...Can She Run comes in with good works...I'd Lie, has run twice already and has excuses in both.
3rd Race.6F, 15k claiming...
Ugh! This is the bottom of barrel of Saratoga racing...
I will go with at 20-1 Karakorum Budman... isn't much worse than the others....
4th race, MSW, 2yo 5.5f.
Kimmel's Vexor had trouble in debut looks to improve, Pletcher has beautifully bred, Raconteur.
5th race, today's stakes race, 1.5m turf F&M,
Senada comes in with best form but @ shorter distances, Gold D' Oro, will stay in the mix on the lead through the race.
6th race, 6f 20k claimers.
Major Molly, 8-1 Finger Lake shipper will prompt pace, 4-1 Need An Angel should prevail.
7th Race 1m turf, claimers.
Ahgogo was pushed wide in last, Virging on Stardom, is 5 of 9 in the money. Patent Pending Tom,15-1, good form but ice cold trainer
8th Race 7f Claiming 3yo.
Not much value here so may go light on betting.
Goodtimehadbyalll and Dawly are the plays.
9th Race 13/16 turf. OptCl 3yo+,
Joshua Reynolds, Ducduc, Close Aly, Colonialism ranked in highest (8-1) to lowest odds (3-1) can all win
10th Race 1mile turf, MSW, 3yo+ NYS,
if Obviously Tuesday and Turn Up the Music can walk on the lead they will be the exacta
The JCC Locks are:
1. $8 win #1, $4 place #1,
$1 ex box #1,#5.
$1 Daily Double #1,#5 & #3,#2,#7
2. $10 win #3,
$ 1 exacta all over #3,
$1 exacta #3,#2,#7.
3. $5 win,place #3
4. $8 win,place #2,
$4 win,place #7,
$2 Daily Double #2,#7 & #5, #10.,
$1 Pick 3, #2,#7 & #5,#10 & #3,#5
5. $8 win #5
$1 exacta all over #5.
$2 win place, #10.
6. $8 win/place #3.
$2 win/place #5.
7. $8 win #6
$1 exacta all over # 6
$1 exacta #6, #4, #10.
8. $5 win/place #2
9. $1 exacta #2,#5,#7,#8.
$6 win/place #8.
$3 win/place #7
10. $4 win, place #4
$2 win, place #6
Epilogue
A good day over all but still net down but named winners in 7 or 10 races and if Senada won rather than lost by a closing neck would have definitely been in the black.
$188 of Bets, $138 of Wins, Net -$50.
Saratoga, Wed. 8/10..
1st Race, 5.5f turf,NYS bred, Opt Claiming.
Compliance Officer in the only legit pace in the field, Silver Timber, is a 2x BCTurf Sprinter
2nd Race...2yo Maiden Claimers
Mayville, 2nd race, who is sired by Straight Man, a son of Saint Ballado, I remember pulling him out of his stall to take a look at that horse as a yearling...Can She Run comes in with good works...I'd Lie, has run twice already and has excuses in both.
3rd Race.6F, 15k claiming...
Ugh! This is the bottom of barrel of Saratoga racing...
I will go with at 20-1 Karakorum Budman... isn't much worse than the others....
4th race, MSW, 2yo 5.5f.
Kimmel's Vexor had trouble in debut looks to improve, Pletcher has beautifully bred, Raconteur.
5th race, today's stakes race, 1.5m turf F&M,
Senada comes in with best form but @ shorter distances, Gold D' Oro, will stay in the mix on the lead through the race.
6th race, 6f 20k claimers.
Major Molly, 8-1 Finger Lake shipper will prompt pace, 4-1 Need An Angel should prevail.
7th Race 1m turf, claimers.
Ahgogo was pushed wide in last, Virging on Stardom, is 5 of 9 in the money. Patent Pending Tom,15-1, good form but ice cold trainer
8th Race 7f Claiming 3yo.
Not much value here so may go light on betting.
Goodtimehadbyalll and Dawly are the plays.
9th Race 13/16 turf. OptCl 3yo+,
Joshua Reynolds, Ducduc, Close Aly, Colonialism ranked in highest (8-1) to lowest odds (3-1) can all win
10th Race 1mile turf, MSW, 3yo+ NYS,
if Obviously Tuesday and Turn Up the Music can walk on the lead they will be the exacta
The JCC Locks are:
1. $8 win #1, $4 place #1,
$1 ex box #1,#5.
$1 Daily Double #1,#5 & #3,#2,#7
2. $10 win #3,
$ 1 exacta all over #3,
$1 exacta #3,#2,#7.
3. $5 win,place #3
4. $8 win,place #2,
$4 win,place #7,
$2 Daily Double #2,#7 & #5, #10.,
$1 Pick 3, #2,#7 & #5,#10 & #3,#5
5. $8 win #5
$1 exacta all over #5.
$2 win place, #10.
6. $8 win/place #3.
$2 win/place #5.
7. $8 win #6
$1 exacta all over # 6
$1 exacta #6, #4, #10.
8. $5 win/place #2
9. $1 exacta #2,#5,#7,#8.
$6 win/place #8.
$3 win/place #7
10. $4 win, place #4
$2 win, place #6
Epilogue
A good day over all but still net down but named winners in 7 or 10 races and if Senada won rather than lost by a closing neck would have definitely been in the black.
$188 of Bets, $138 of Wins, Net -$50.
1st..
Compliance Officer - scratched
Silver Timber wins
2nd
Mayville - 3rd
Can She Run - scratched
I'd Lie - wins
3rd
Karakorum Budman - 6th
4th
Vexor wins
Raconteur 5th
5th
Senada - 2nd
Gold D' Oro - 7th
6th
Major Molly scratched
Need An Angel wins
7th
Ahgogo - 4th
Virging on Stardom - 6th
Patent Pending Tom - 9th
8th
Goodtimehadbyall - 3rd
Dawly wins
9th
Joshua Reynolds - 4th
Ducduc - 5th
Close Aly - 3rd
Colonialism wins
10th
Obviously Tuesday wins
Turn Up the Music 3rd
Friday, August 5, 2011
Saratoga 8/5/2011: The Locks
Saratoga, Friday August 5th. Heading to the Spa today! Weird card to bet....3 - 2yo races, 2 restricted stakes races. Haven't been to the track at Saratoga in a couple of years so really looking forward to the day.
Lets look at the Locks.
1st Race, 6f, Allowance/Optional Claiming 3yo+ NYS-breds.
I see a speed duel between the favorite Wise Stop and The Zipster pushed along by Game Token, Too Tough Pete, and Jackson N Humboldt. So will take stand against the favorite and look to Dahlgren Chapel coming off pace to take a piece if not the pie. DC threw in 3 clunkers (but one of them in the G3 Tom Fool) in a row but regained some form in last. There is a sentimental factor on Dahlgren Chapel as its the name of the chapel that sits in the quad behind the Healy Building at Georgetown. Looking for Jackson N Humboldt to make the exacta as it hasn't failed to do so in each of its 5 starts. Owned by Brooklyn Boyz Stables so would like to see the horse win so I can see in the winners circle the collection of Joey Baggadonuts that are connected with the gelding.
Lets go $10 win DC, $1 saver exacta
$5 exacta DC + JNH
$4 WP JNH
2nd Race, 5.5f, Madien Claiming ($150k Claim!!!), 2yoF
I admittedly don't have a proven strategy on 2yo madien races except not betting on trainers that have a low 1st Start % and looking at workouts.
I am looking at three horses, Singlet, Heather's Feather and Tiara.
Singlet bought in April at OBS April so had to have been trained up to the sale and since with Dutrow has been training well at Delaware. Heather's Feather trained by Todd Pletcher who goes about 22% winners on 1st starts and comes in with a bunch of works including real solid gate works. Tiara has been training well for Dale Romans.
With each of these going off at low odds 5-1, 7-2, 4-1 can't bet on all 3 and expect any return so doing a bit of an experiment on betting so lets go $10 win on the 5-1, Singlet. $5 place on HF and $5 show (yes, a show bet!) on Tiara. Then $1 exacta box on all three.....experimenting here
3rd Race, 1 1/8m, The Madame Jumel Stakes 3yo+F+M that have not won a graded stakes in 2010 or 2011.
Looking at 3 horses that have been out of the money a total 2 times in their collective careers. Arena Elvira races for Mott and will be stretching out from running last 5 races at a mile or less, but does have a close 2nd at 1 1/8m. Bubble Gum has raced for Stronach Stables up across the border where they riot over power play goals...only race out of money was on off track and comes in off a 2nd in a listed stakes going 1 1/8th mile. Sweet N Sour Nina is having a solid 2011 including her last which was a 3rd in the graded Obeah Stakes behind winnner, leading race mare, Havre de Grace.
Again the Locks is looking at horses with odds of 3-1, 5-1, 7-2 respectively. Going with Bubble Gum to move on from its solid 2011 debut to take the race. Let me continue my experiment with $10 win BG, $5 place Sweet N Sour Nina, $5 show Arena Elvira and $1 exacta box on all three. I do reserve right if my 2nd race is disasterous to change up the strategy.
4th race, MSW, 5.5f turf, 2yoF
Assategue's trainer Michael Matz doesn't usually tighten the screws on his 1st timers but at 10-1 horse had a bullet work is worth to keep eye on. Inny Minnie $240k purchase solid works and Margolis winning at a 23% clip in 2011. Coral Glide races for Pletcher who has been getting alot out of the fillie in the mornings.
Inny Minny $10 win $1 saver exacta....Assateague $5 WP....$1 exacta all three.
5th race, Claiming $35k, 1 1/6m turf, 3yo+ F&M,
$5 win/place on 30-1 JC's Queen (like the name) but also actually has decent last 2 race Beyers compared to field. $10 win Witch's Orchard, $1 exacta saver.
6th race, Madien Claiming $20k, 3yo+, NYS bred
La Festa E Domani is a 50-1 horse that has lost by a total of 180 lengths but may actually have enough speed to win or at least place.
7th race, The Johns Call, 3yo+, 1 5/8m!! Turf,
Sangas won 4 out of 5 in Deutschland before racing at in the G3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago ran 7th in race but only 31/4 lengths behind an race line shows was held up between horses so figure to improve at extra distance and a race under belt in the US.
Memorial Maniac at 30-1 and the only horse in the field to win at distance.
Simmard solid career and this race fits nicely for the horse.
Sangas $10 win $1 exacta saver
MM $4 WP
$1 exacta 6,7,8.
8th race, Allowance, 1/16m inner turf, 3yo+ NYS bred
Gamblin Fever, Seattle Mission, Alstom look to be the Locks
9th race, 2yo NYSbred 5.5 f turf.
Adriatic Spirit, Adirondack Dancer, Skorton are the Locks in this one.
Good Luck
---------------
Epilogue
Race 1....
Dahlgren Chapel wins..$36.50 win less $34 bets = $2.50 win
Race 2
Singlet wins....$70 win less $26 bets = $44 win.
Race 3
Arena Elvira wins $6.75 win less $26 bets = $19.25 loss.
Race 4
Inny Minny 2nd.... $44.50 win less $35 bets = $9.50 win.
Race 5
$0 win less $29 bets = $29 loss
Race 7
Sangas wins....$69 win $33 bet = $36 win
Race 8
Seattle Mission 2nd
Race 9
Adriatic Spirit 3rd.
Lets look at the Locks.
1st Race, 6f, Allowance/Optional Claiming 3yo+ NYS-breds.
I see a speed duel between the favorite Wise Stop and The Zipster pushed along by Game Token, Too Tough Pete, and Jackson N Humboldt. So will take stand against the favorite and look to Dahlgren Chapel coming off pace to take a piece if not the pie. DC threw in 3 clunkers (but one of them in the G3 Tom Fool) in a row but regained some form in last. There is a sentimental factor on Dahlgren Chapel as its the name of the chapel that sits in the quad behind the Healy Building at Georgetown. Looking for Jackson N Humboldt to make the exacta as it hasn't failed to do so in each of its 5 starts. Owned by Brooklyn Boyz Stables so would like to see the horse win so I can see in the winners circle the collection of Joey Baggadonuts that are connected with the gelding.
Lets go $10 win DC, $1 saver exacta
$5 exacta DC + JNH
$4 WP JNH
2nd Race, 5.5f, Madien Claiming ($150k Claim!!!), 2yoF
I admittedly don't have a proven strategy on 2yo madien races except not betting on trainers that have a low 1st Start % and looking at workouts.
I am looking at three horses, Singlet, Heather's Feather and Tiara.
Singlet bought in April at OBS April so had to have been trained up to the sale and since with Dutrow has been training well at Delaware. Heather's Feather trained by Todd Pletcher who goes about 22% winners on 1st starts and comes in with a bunch of works including real solid gate works. Tiara has been training well for Dale Romans.
With each of these going off at low odds 5-1, 7-2, 4-1 can't bet on all 3 and expect any return so doing a bit of an experiment on betting so lets go $10 win on the 5-1, Singlet. $5 place on HF and $5 show (yes, a show bet!) on Tiara. Then $1 exacta box on all three.....experimenting here
3rd Race, 1 1/8m, The Madame Jumel Stakes 3yo+F+M that have not won a graded stakes in 2010 or 2011.
Looking at 3 horses that have been out of the money a total 2 times in their collective careers. Arena Elvira races for Mott and will be stretching out from running last 5 races at a mile or less, but does have a close 2nd at 1 1/8m. Bubble Gum has raced for Stronach Stables up across the border where they riot over power play goals...only race out of money was on off track and comes in off a 2nd in a listed stakes going 1 1/8th mile. Sweet N Sour Nina is having a solid 2011 including her last which was a 3rd in the graded Obeah Stakes behind winnner, leading race mare, Havre de Grace.
Again the Locks is looking at horses with odds of 3-1, 5-1, 7-2 respectively. Going with Bubble Gum to move on from its solid 2011 debut to take the race. Let me continue my experiment with $10 win BG, $5 place Sweet N Sour Nina, $5 show Arena Elvira and $1 exacta box on all three. I do reserve right if my 2nd race is disasterous to change up the strategy.
4th race, MSW, 5.5f turf, 2yoF
Assategue's trainer Michael Matz doesn't usually tighten the screws on his 1st timers but at 10-1 horse had a bullet work is worth to keep eye on. Inny Minnie $240k purchase solid works and Margolis winning at a 23% clip in 2011. Coral Glide races for Pletcher who has been getting alot out of the fillie in the mornings.
Inny Minny $10 win $1 saver exacta....Assateague $5 WP....$1 exacta all three.
5th race, Claiming $35k, 1 1/6m turf, 3yo+ F&M,
$5 win/place on 30-1 JC's Queen (like the name) but also actually has decent last 2 race Beyers compared to field. $10 win Witch's Orchard, $1 exacta saver.
6th race, Madien Claiming $20k, 3yo+, NYS bred
La Festa E Domani is a 50-1 horse that has lost by a total of 180 lengths but may actually have enough speed to win or at least place.
7th race, The Johns Call, 3yo+, 1 5/8m!! Turf,
Sangas won 4 out of 5 in Deutschland before racing at in the G3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago ran 7th in race but only 31/4 lengths behind an race line shows was held up between horses so figure to improve at extra distance and a race under belt in the US.
Memorial Maniac at 30-1 and the only horse in the field to win at distance.
Simmard solid career and this race fits nicely for the horse.
Sangas $10 win $1 exacta saver
MM $4 WP
$1 exacta 6,7,8.
8th race, Allowance, 1/16m inner turf, 3yo+ NYS bred
Gamblin Fever, Seattle Mission, Alstom look to be the Locks
9th race, 2yo NYSbred 5.5 f turf.
Adriatic Spirit, Adirondack Dancer, Skorton are the Locks in this one.
Good Luck
---------------
Epilogue
Race 1....
Dahlgren Chapel wins..$36.50 win less $34 bets = $2.50 win
Race 2
Singlet wins....$70 win less $26 bets = $44 win.
Race 3
Arena Elvira wins $6.75 win less $26 bets = $19.25 loss.
Race 4
Inny Minny 2nd.... $44.50 win less $35 bets = $9.50 win.
Race 5
$0 win less $29 bets = $29 loss
Race 7
Sangas wins....$69 win $33 bet = $36 win
Race 8
Seattle Mission 2nd
Race 9
Adriatic Spirit 3rd.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Saratoga Opening Day: The Locks
Saratoga opens with 2 stakes races....
The James Marvin, 7f , 3yo+
Here Come's Ben by winning a listed stakes at Churchill Downs last month broke a 3 race unplaced skid....HCB has 5 wins at 7f in 7 races and also won the Forego at 7f at Saratoga last year at 5-1 worth the bet.
Jersey Town has been freshened since November but also won last year coming off a long lay-off. Has only raced once out of money.
$10 win HCB, $1 exacta saver HCB
$2 ex HCB, JT
The Schuylerville, 6f, 2yo fillies
Flashy Lassie, already 2 for 2.
Vukovar, shows best Speed Index #s but haven't studied how well SI#s play out for 2yo races.
$10 win FL, $1 exacta saver
$3 WP Vukovar....
good luck!!
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