2020 Virtual
Derby – The Locks
As any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows
that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history
minor at Georgetown University. Drinking cheap vodka and YooHoo Black Russians
– apparently - is not a substitute for studying and when they didn’t include
how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew
from the class. But despite not having the parchment the Locks is a great
student of history and can undoubtedly say that there has never been a Kentucky
Derby like there will be in 2020. 2020
is the Deeds Not Words of years.
Instead of watching the Derby unfold in front of 140,000
people this first Saturday of May – we all are doing our part to support the
health and safety of our neighbors and those heroically caring for us – and
will stay at home and wait until September for the Derby to be run. We all pray and keep in our thoughts those
directly impacted by the ravages of the Covid-19 virus, those that have been
displaced economically by this crisis, and those struggling through the stress
caused by isolation and the tragedy unfolding around us.
The good folks at NBC have given us something to step away
from our quarantine lives in the form of the Virtual Derby. Please see a little
more how NBC Sports and Churchill Downs plan to celebrate the Kentucky Derby in
Virtual form.
On May 2, Churchill Downs will empty on the first Saturday in May
for the first time since 1945. The 146th Kentucky Derby has been moved
from May 2 to Saturday, September 5 due to
the coronavirus pandemic, but the party will still go on—with a virtual
Kentucky Derby at home.
Fans can stay healthy at home as NBC Sports and
Churchill Downs partner for a virtual Kentucky Derby at Home Party,
which includes The Kentucky Derby:
Triple Crown Showdown, a socially distant, computer-simulated edition of the Run for
the Roses that pits all 13 Triple Crown winners against each other.
On May 2, during what would normally be Derby
Day, tune into NBC from 3-6 p.m. ET to watch The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown
Showdown.
Join
us May 2nd for a Virtual #KyDerbyAtHome Party featuring the
Triple Crown Showdown where the 13 Triple Crown winners will race one another
in a computer simulation under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs.
Take the party online using #KYDerbyAtHome on social media, making your virtual Kentucky Derby pick and joining Churchill Downs in donating to COVID-19 relief efforts. Everyone who correctly picks the winner will be entered to win the ultimate Kentucky Derby 146 VIP experience. In addition, follow @NBCSports on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for live looks around Churchill Downs and content from at-home parties across the country.
Take the party online using #KYDerbyAtHome on social media, making your virtual Kentucky Derby pick and joining Churchill Downs in donating to COVID-19 relief efforts. Everyone who correctly picks the winner will be entered to win the ultimate Kentucky Derby 146 VIP experience. In addition, follow @NBCSports on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for live looks around Churchill Downs and content from at-home parties across the country.
“Churchill Downs has pledged to match up to $1
million of donations with funds to be directed to the Team Kentucky Fund and
Direct Relief,” Churchill Downs announced. “A small percentage will be earmarked for the
R.E.I.N. Fund (Relief for Equine Industry Needs), a program managed by
Churchill Downs Foundation designed to benefit workers of the backside whose
livelihood has been impacted by COVID-19 and also to help ensure essential care
for horses throughout the pandemic.”
After the broadcast, tune into NBCSN at 6 p.m.
for the Arkansas Derby, one of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby
qualifying races. This year, the race will be split between two divisions, with
170 qualifying points on the line in each division.
The Locks has analyzed those running in the Virtual Derby and
hope hold up relative success of the past
Recent Locks:
2019: Tacitus – placed 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible – finish 3rd –
7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1
Please enjoy your First Saturday in May and look forward to
seeing you all when we can and hoping that is soon.
1 Affirmed
Year winning Triple Crown: 1978
Jockey: Steve Cauthen
Trainer: Laz Barrera
Morning Line Odds: 5-1
Record (Before Derby): 13-11-2-0
Record (Lifetime): 29-22-5-1
Great sports rivalries include Ali vs
Frazier, OSU vs Michigan, Georgetown vs Syrac*se and in horse racing it is
defined by Alydar vs Affirmed. For most
people, the rivalry is only known to encompass the 3 races of the Triple Crown
but actually the rivalry spanned 10 races including 6 races before the Kentucky
Derby. The Preakness and Belmont stretch
duels between Alydar and Affirmed are historic.
Affirmed ended up on the better side 7-3 in the rivalry but Alydar
appeared to get the last laugh as 2 sons of Alydar went on to win the Kentucky
Derby while Affirmed didn’t sire any superstars. Affirmed was not only a Triple Crown champion
but went on to win Older Horse of the Year after picking 7 of 9 races including
defeating Specatular Bid in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Ranked 11th in Bloodhorse magazine’s
100 Top American Racehorses in the 20th Century (Bloodhorse poll).
Locks Verdict: Contender
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2 Assault
Year winning Triple Crown: 1946
Jockey: Warren Mehrtens
Trainer: Max Hirsch
Morning Line: 20-1
Record (Before Derby): 12-4-2-1
Record (Lifetime): 42-18-6-7
Assault
is likely to be the least famous of Triple Crown winners. In part that is due that Assault ended up not
being a Lothario in the breeding shed as he did not impregnate any mares so has
no progeny to carry on his genes. Assault
as nicknamed “the club-footed comet” as a result as foot injury as a young
horse. Of the 145 Kentucky Derby
winners, Assault is only 1 of 2 Texas bred winners and the best a Texas-bred
has finished in the Derby since 1966 is 10th place. Ranked 31st
in the Bloodhorse poll.
3 Secretariat
Year winning Triple Crown: 1973
Jockey: Ron Turcotte
Trainer: Lucien Lauren
Morning Line: 7-2
Record (Before Derby): 12-9-1-1
Record (Lifetime): 21-16-3-1
It is arguable whether Secretariat is the GOAT of horse racing as Man O’
War actually was voted #1 over Secretariat in the
Bloodhorse poll. That said,
Secretariat’s 31 length victory in the 1973 Belmont Stakes is clearly the greatest
horse racing performance of all time. Think about this - not only by stopping
the clock at 2:24 which still stands as the fastest 1 ½ mile time ever in the
US breaking the previous record by over 2 seconds – but the incredible splits of
1:09 1/5, 1:34 1/5 and 1:59 would win Grade I stakes races at those distances.
Would have been assigned a 139 Beyer speed figure – the highest ever. Although many speak of Secretariat’s Belmont
performance – Secretariat also ran the most impressive Kentucky Derby by
running a still-standing record time and registering unheard of negative splits: 25 1/5, 24, 23 4/5, 23 2/5 and 23. Not
only Secretariat handled the dirt tracks Big Red ended his career with 2
smashing victories in top turf races. With all the greatness of Secretariat,
consider the following:
- Came into the Derby off of a 4th place finish in
the Wood Memorial
- Pre-Derby CSI figures: 100-108-102 – the average
of Kentucky Derby winners for last 23 years has been over 105.
- Another of the greats to suffer a loss at
Saratoga in the Whitney against Saratoga horse-for-the-course, Onion.
In my book there are only 3 modern day sport GOATs, Serena Williams, Michael Phelps and Kelly Slater. For those astonished that the list doesn’t include Wayne Gretzky or Michael Jordan, consider this, Wayne Gretzky won 4 Stanley Cups with Edmonton all playing with Mark Messier but never won one without Messier while Messier went on to win another Cup at Edmonton and the 1994 Stanley Cup with the Rangers. Also consider on who would win a one-on-one game between Michael Jordan and LeBron James - MJ although more of a competitor than LBJ – LeBron’s size advantage of 2 inches and 35 pounds would be too much for MJ to overcome.
Locks Verdict: The one to beat but not a Lock.
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4 Sir
Barton
Year winning Triple Crown: 1919
Jockey: Johnny Loftus
Trainer: Guy Bedwell
Morning Line: 20-1
Record (Before Derby): 6-0-1-0
Record (Lifetime): 31-13-6-5
Looking at Sir Barton’s past
performances prior to the Derby, you’d wonder why owner JKL Ross even sent the
chestnut colt to Louisville for the Derby.
Those prep races included 4 races at Saratoga with placing of 9th,9th,7th
and 16th and never a factor in any of those races. So why did Sir Barton’s owner race him in the
Kentucky Derby winless? Owner JKL Ross wanted Sir Barton to serve as a rabbit
to burn out rival Eternal to open the race for highly touted late runner entrymate
Billy Kelly as Sir Barton’s owner had a $50,000 ($1 million in today’s money)
with mobster Arnold Rothstein that Billy Kelly would beat Eternal. The Churchill Downs track came up heavy
which favored a front runner and Sir Barton miraculously won on the lead by
open lengths. He followed that with the
Preakness and Belmont with wide margin victories. After the Triple Crown, Sir Barton, nicknamed
the Tender-Toed Typhoon, had a serviceable career that earned him a 49th
in ranking in the Bloodhorse poll but that career included a 7 length loss in a
match race vs Man O’ War. Registered
Pre-Derby CSI figures: 95-88-79 – not great.
Locks Verdict: Like the chart comments
in his early Saratoga losses, no factor.
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5 Seattle
Slew
Year Winning Triple Crown: 1977
Jockey: Jean Cruguet
Trainer: Billy Turner Jr.
Morning Line: 5-1
Record (Before Derby): 6-6-0-0
Record (Lifetime): 17-14-2-0
You can put a line through Seattle Slew July 1977 Swaps Stakes as Seattle Slew’s owners against advice of trainer Billy Turner was lured by Hollywood to run Seattle Slew on the West Coast and Seattle Slew’s record would be dominatingly near perfect. Seattle Slew beat Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup (not too many of us can remember when sporting events could be sponsored by a cigarette brand). Ranked 9th in the Bloodhorse Poll. One of the few to avoid the Saratoga curse of champions but to note only ran in an allowance race at the Spa. Seattle Slew was a true media superstar - Seattle Slew t-shirt sales were rivaling Farrah Fawcett’s.
Only knock would be relatively slow
times in the Triple Crown races with CSIs of 98-108-89 (compare that to
Secretariats Triple Crown CSIs 113-111-118) -- when asked of match up between
Secretariat and Seattle Slew – Slew’s trainer said “we'd have blown him
away”.
Locks Verdict: Just out of the
money.
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6 American
Pharoah
Year Winning Triple Crown: 2015
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Morning Line: 6-1
Record (Before Derby): 5-4-0-0
Record (Lifetime): 11-9-1-0
Great
horse that has been overshadowed this year by his owner’s alleged overselling AP’s
stallion shares – a strategy lifted right off the pages of the book: Wild Ride: The Rise and Tragic Fall of
Calumet Farm. Even though George W had trouble with the saying “Fool me once –
shame on you. Fool me twice – shame on
me.” -- those that have loaned money to American Pharoah’s owner Ahmed Zayat
are quite familiar with the phrase.
Trying to keep positive lets focus more
on the greatness of AP:
-
Only horse in field to add a Breeders Cup
Classic victory to its accomplishments.
-
In a mark of a true champion: AP is another of
Triple Crown winner to taste defeat in Saratoga.
-
American Pharoah ran a faster final quarter mile
in the Belmont than Secretariat.
-
American Pharoah although not in the Bloodhorse
poll has been ranked in other polls as the 15th greatest race horse
in US history.
-
Broke the 37 year Triple Crown drought
Locks Verdict: Look at this to compare across generations.
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7 Gallant
Fox
Year Winning Triple Crown: 1930
Jockey: Earl Sande
Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons
Morning Line: 20-1
Record (Before Derby): 8-3-2-2
Record (Lifetime): 17-11-3-2
Gallant Fox ranked 16th in
the Bloodhorse poll includes the Jockey Club Gold Cup as the colt’s best post
Triple Crown victory. Was the first
Triple Crown owner to feel the sting of Saratoga being named the Graveyard of Champions
by following up this colt’s Triple Crown with a loss later that year in the
Travers. Last 3 race Pre-Triple Crown
CSI figures fits in with the average over the past 23 years.
Locks Verdict: Better horses in field.
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8 Citation
Year winning Triple Crown: 1948
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
Morning Line: 4-1
Record (Before Derby): 17-15-2-0
Record (Lifetime): 45-32-10-2
For those who followed and were big
fans of the racehorse Cigar will remember Citation. In July 1996, at the same track where
Citation made his final public appearance nearly a half-century earlier Cigar
joined Citation with 16 race win streak which was a 20th-century record for
horses based in North America in a made-for-TV Arlington Citation
Challenge. Citation was a dominating 3yo
colt -- by the end of his 3-year-old season, Citation had a record of 27 wins
and 2 seconds in 29 starts and included in those wins beyond the Triple Crown
included Jockey Club Gold Cup and a walkover in the Pimlico Special. Set mile world record in the Golden Gate
Mile. Citation was the first $1m earning American
thoroughbred and won a lion share of those earnings up to the end of his 3yo
season. Ranked 3rd in the Bloodhorse poll behind Secretariat and Man
O’ War. Here is a horse that we can make some comparison between with others in
the field given that Eddie Arcaro rode both Citation and Whirlaway – let’s look
at some quotes by the legendary rider:
-
Citation
was a superhorse with all the qualities of greatness.
-
He was the
horse with no weakness. You could make four runs with him, not just one, as
with Whirlaway.
-
He had
great strength. You could do 14 things with him, and he'd respond to all of
them. When he was 2 years old, he won 8 of 9 races. When he was 3, he won 19 of
20.
-
He was
simply the best.
The Locks is going to take Eddie
Arcaro’s advice and make Citation the Lock.
Locks Verdict: The Lock
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9 War
Admiral
Year winning Triple Crown: 1937
Jockey: Charlie Kurtsinger
Trainer: George Conway
Morning Line: 8-1
Record (Before Derby): 8-5-2-1
Record (Lifetime): 26-21-3-1
Perhaps the most accomplished son of the great Man O’ War is War Admiral.
-
Ranked 13th in the Bloodhorse poll.
-
Only losses post Triple Crown was in the heavy
bog of Suffolk Downs in the 1937 Massachusetts Handicap and in the match race
of the century at Pimlico vs Seabiscuit in 1938.
-
Did not suffer the fate of many of other
champions by posting a perfect 3 for 3 record at Saratoga
-
Won at distances ranging from 4.5furlongs to 2
miles.
-
Won the Belmont in then track record time.
-
Likely the speediest of the Virtual Derby field
with 20 starts include leading at the first split.
-
Last 3 pre-Triple Crown CSI figures are an
average of about 111 – compared to an average Kentucky Derby winner in last 23
years of just over 105.
Locks Verdict: Think Bodemeister in 2012 Kentucky Derby
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10 Whirlaway
Year winning Triple Crown: 1941
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
Morning Line: 4-1
Record (Before Derby): 24-11-4-6
Record (Lifetime): 60-32-15-9
Given the facts below the Locks was
going to make Whirlaway the Virtual Derby Lock but was able to come across an
interview with Eddie Arcaro quoted above and went with Citation – but Whirlaway
has qualifies to consider:
-
Whirlaway is the only horse along with weaker
competition Assault which will come off the pace. Given that up to 9 of the
field will want the lead – Whirlaway would be well positioned to win a race in an
actual race of these 13 champions.
-
Horses with the name beginning with ‘W’ as well
as A and J win at a higher rate than other names.
-
3rd highest last 3 pre-Triple Crown
race CSI average in field
-
A Calumet Farm homebred – homebreds – 10 out of
the last 17; 6 out of the last 10 Kentucky Derbies have been won by homebreds.
-
Ranked 28th in the Bloodhorse poll.
Locks Verdict: Live.
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11 Count
Fleet
Year winning Triple Crown: 1943
Jockey: Johnny Longden
Trainer: Don Cameron
Morning Line: 6-1
Record (Before Derby): 18-13-4-1
Record (Lifetime): 21-16-4-1
Some facts on Count Fleet:
-
Owner was Fannie Hertz – sounds like a name you
put on the attendance sheet when a substitute teacher is in.
-
Shortest price of a Kentucky Derby winner (paid
$2.80 on a $2 wager)
-
Ranked 5th in the Bloodhorse Top 100
American racehorses of the 20th Century poll
-
Won the Belmont Stakes by 25 lengths – which was
a record until Secretariats 1973 Belmont
-
Didn’t race after Triple Crown win.
-
Count Fleet is one of 6 Virtual Derby entries
that was either 1st or 2nd at the first call during each
Triple Crown Race.
-
Pre-Triple Crown CSI figures a solid:
104-109-108
Locks Verdict: Contender
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12 Justify
Year winning Triple Crown: 2018
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Morning Line: 15-1
Record (Before Derby): 3-3-0-0
Record (Lifetime): 6-6-0-0
The Justify fact file:
-
Fog in Justify’s Preakness victory created one
of the more dramatic Triple Crown finishes in recent memory.
-
Only undefeated Triple Crown winner
-
Only American Pharaoh and Justify did not race
at Belmont before their Triple Crown starts.
-
Average last 3 race pre-Triple Crown CSI figures
are 2nd best in field.
-
Horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more
successful than others winning at a 10.90% clip across Kentucky Derby history.
Locks Verdict: Runs better than
odds
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13 Omaha
Year winning Triple Crown: 1935
Jockey: Willie "Smokey" Saunders
Trainer: Jim Fitzsimmons
Morning Line: 5-1
Record (Before Derby): 11-2-4-1
Record (Lifetime): 22-9-7-2
Omaha could be Peyton Manning’s pick
for the Virtual Derby and there is some merit there with a late running style
and a pre-Derby CSI figures of 105-108-101.
but won’t be the Locks pick.
-
Was 0 for 8 in pre-Derby stakes races
-
Never won vs older horses in the US
-
Finished career racing in England including a 2nd
at Royal Ascot.
-
Ranked 61st (lowest in field of 20th
Century runners) in the Bloodhorse poll
Locks Verdict: Peyton Manning vs Jets
in January 2002 playoff game – to save yourself the google search: Jets beat
the Colts 41-0 – Peyton Manning 14 for 31, 137 yards, 2 Int.
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The Locks:
◎ 8 Citation
○ 10 Whirlaway
▲
3 Secretariat
△ 9 War Admiral
△ 5 Seattle Slew
Arkansas Derby – Division 1
◎ 1
Charlton 1/1
○ 9 Winning Impression 15-1
▲ 4 Gouverneur
Morris 9/2
△ 10 Crypto Cash 20-1
Arkansas Derby – Division 2
◎ 10
Farmington Road 12-1
○ 5 Nadal 5/2
▲ 4 King
Guillermo 3-1
△ 11 Wells Bayou 7-2
△ 1 Finnick the Fierce 15-1
For the growing number of insomniacs - you can go into the night a highlight in the Japanese Spring racing schedule - the Tenno Sho (Spring) from Kyoto:
For the growing number of insomniacs - you can go into the night a highlight in the Japanese Spring racing schedule - the Tenno Sho (Spring) from Kyoto:
◎ 3 Tosen Cambina 20-1
○ 7 You Can Smile 3-1
▲ 14 Fierement 9-4
△ 12 Shirvanshah 33-1
△ 11 Meisho Tengen 14-1
#KyDerbyAtHome #KentuckyDerby #StaySafe
[1]
If this horse wins, given the times, in lieu of wearing said fashion item on my
next international flight – I will wear on my next neighborhood walk and visit
to the supermarket.
