2020 Virtual Derby - the Locks

2020 Virtual Derby – The Locks

As any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. Drinking cheap vodka and YooHoo Black Russians – apparently - is not a substitute for studying and when they didn’t include how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class. But despite not having the parchment the Locks is a great student of history and can undoubtedly say that there has never been a Kentucky Derby like there will be in 2020.  2020 is the Deeds Not Words of years.

Instead of watching the Derby unfold in front of 140,000 people this first Saturday of May – we all are doing our part to support the health and safety of our neighbors and those heroically caring for us – and will stay at home and wait until September for the Derby to be run.  We all pray and keep in our thoughts those directly impacted by the ravages of the Covid-19 virus, those that have been displaced economically by this crisis, and those struggling through the stress caused by isolation and the tragedy unfolding around us.

The good folks at NBC have given us something to step away from our quarantine lives in the form of the Virtual Derby. Please see a little more how NBC Sports and Churchill Downs plan to celebrate the Kentucky Derby in Virtual form.

On May 2, Churchill Downs will empty on the first Saturday in May for the first time since 1945. The 146th Kentucky Derby has been moved from May 2 to Saturday, September 5 due to the coronavirus pandemic, but the party will still go on—with a virtual Kentucky Derby at home.

Fans can stay healthy at home as NBC Sports and Churchill Downs partner for a virtual Kentucky Derby at Home Party, which includes  The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, a socially distant, computer-simulated edition of the Run for the Roses that pits all 13 Triple Crown winners against each other.

On May 2, during what would normally be Derby Day, tune into NBC from 3-6 p.m. ET to watch The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown.

The broadcast can also be streamed on NBCSports.com and on the NBC Sports app.

Join us May 2nd for a Virtual #KyDerbyAtHome Party featuring the Triple Crown Showdown where the 13 Triple Crown winners will race one another in a computer simulation under the historic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs.

Take the party online using #KYDerbyAtHome on social media, making your virtual Kentucky Derby pick and joining Churchill Downs in donating to COVID-19 relief efforts. Everyone who correctly picks the winner will be entered to win the ultimate Kentucky Derby 146 VIP experience. In addition, follow @NBCSports on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for live looks around Churchill Downs and content from at-home parties across the country.

“Churchill Downs has pledged to match up to $1 million of donations with funds to be directed to the Team Kentucky Fund and Direct Relief,” Churchill Downs announced. “A small percentage will be earmarked for the R.E.I.N. Fund (Relief for Equine Industry Needs), a program managed by Churchill Downs Foundation designed to benefit workers of the backside whose livelihood has been impacted by COVID-19 and also to help ensure essential care for horses throughout the pandemic.”

After the broadcast, tune into NBCSN at 6 p.m. for the Arkansas Derby, one of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying races. This year, the race will be split between two divisions, with 170 qualifying points on the line in each division. 

The Locks has analyzed those running in the Virtual Derby and hope hold up relative success of the past

Recent Locks:

2019: Tacitus – placed 3rd – odds: 5.80-1

2018: Audible – finish 3rd –  7.00-1

2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – 4.70-1

2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1

2015: Firing Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1

2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1

2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1

Please enjoy your First Saturday in May and look forward to seeing you all when we can and hoping that is soon. 

1        Affirmed  

Year winning Triple Crown: 1978

Jockey: Steve Cauthen   

Trainer: Laz Barrera        

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Record (Before Derby): 13-11-2-0

Record (Lifetime): 29-22-5-1

Great sports rivalries include Ali vs Frazier, OSU vs Michigan, Georgetown vs Syrac*se and in horse racing it is defined by Alydar vs Affirmed.  For most people, the rivalry is only known to encompass the 3 races of the Triple Crown but actually the rivalry spanned 10 races including 6 races before the Kentucky Derby.  The Preakness and Belmont stretch duels between Alydar and Affirmed are historic.  Affirmed ended up on the better side 7-3 in the rivalry but Alydar appeared to get the last laugh as 2 sons of Alydar went on to win the Kentucky Derby while Affirmed didn’t sire any superstars.  Affirmed was not only a Triple Crown champion but went on to win Older Horse of the Year after picking 7 of 9 races including defeating Specatular Bid in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Ranked 11^th in Bloodhorse magazine’s 100 Top American Racehorses in the 20^th Century (Bloodhorse poll).

Locks Verdict: Contender
🔒🔒🔒🔒

2     Assault 

Year winning Triple Crown: 1946

Jockey: Warren Mehrtens            

Trainer: Max Hirsch         

Morning Line: 20-1

Record (Before Derby): 12-4-2-1

Record (Lifetime): 42-18-6-7

Assault is likely to be the least famous of Triple Crown winners.  In part that is due that Assault ended up not being a Lothario in the breeding shed as he did not impregnate any mares so has no progeny to carry on his genes.  Assault as nicknamed “the club-footed comet” as a result as foot injury as a young horse.  Of the 145 Kentucky Derby winners, Assault is only 1 of 2 Texas bred winners and the best a Texas-bred has finished in the Derby since 1966 is 10^th place. Ranked 31^st in the Bloodhorse poll.

Locks Verdict:  The Tom Brady Pink women’s size medium Buccaneers jersey horse.[1]
🔒

3     Secretariat 

Year winning Triple Crown: 1973

Jockey: Ron Turcotte      

Trainer: Lucien Lauren    

Morning Line: 7-2

Record (Before Derby): 12-9-1-1

Record (Lifetime): 21-16-3-1

It is arguable whether Secretariat is the GOAT of horse racing as Man O’ War actually was voted #1 over Secretariat in the Bloodhorse poll.  That said, Secretariat’s 31 length victory in the 1973 Belmont Stakes is clearly the greatest horse racing performance of all time. Think about this - not only by stopping the clock at 2:24 which still stands as the fastest 1 ½ mile time ever in the US breaking the previous record by over 2 seconds – but the incredible splits of 1:09 1/5, 1:34 1/5 and 1:59 would win Grade I stakes races at those distances. Would have been assigned a 139 Beyer speed figure – the highest ever.  Although many speak of Secretariat’s Belmont performance – Secretariat also ran the most impressive Kentucky Derby by running a still-standing record time and registering unheard of negative splits:  25 1/5, 24, 23 4/5, 23 2/5 and 23. Not only Secretariat handled the dirt tracks Big Red ended his career with 2 smashing victories in top turf races. With all the greatness of Secretariat, consider the following:

-      Came into the Derby off of a 4th place finish in the Wood Memorial

-      Pre-Derby CSI figures: 100-108-102 – the average of Kentucky Derby winners for last 23 years has been over 105.

-      Another of the greats to suffer a loss at Saratoga in the Whitney against Saratoga horse-for-the-course, Onion.

In my book there are only 3 modern day sport GOATs, Serena Williams, Michael Phelps and Kelly Slater.  For those astonished that the list doesn’t include Wayne Gretzky or Michael Jordan, consider this, Wayne Gretzky won 4 Stanley Cups with Edmonton all playing with Mark Messier but never won one without Messier while Messier went on to win another Cup at Edmonton and the 1994 Stanley Cup with the Rangers. Also consider on who would win a one-on-one game between Michael Jordan and LeBron James  - MJ although more of a competitor than LBJ – LeBron’s size advantage of 2 inches and 35 pounds would be too much for MJ to overcome.

Locks Verdict:  The one to beat but not a Lock.
🔒🔒🔒🔒

4     Sir Barton     

Year winning Triple Crown: 1919

Jockey: Johnny Loftus    

Trainer: Guy Bedwell      

Morning Line: 20-1

Record (Before Derby): 6-0-1-0

Record (Lifetime): 31-13-6-5

Looking at Sir Barton’s past performances prior to the Derby, you’d wonder why owner JKL Ross even sent the chestnut colt to Louisville for the Derby.  Those prep races included 4 races at Saratoga with placing of 9^th,9^th,7^th and 16^th and never a factor in any of those races.  So why did Sir Barton’s owner race him in the Kentucky Derby winless? Owner JKL Ross wanted Sir Barton to serve as a rabbit to burn out rival Eternal to open the race for highly touted late runner entrymate Billy Kelly as Sir Barton’s owner had a $50,000 ($1 million in today’s money) with mobster Arnold Rothstein that Billy Kelly would beat Eternal.   The Churchill Downs track came up heavy which favored a front runner and Sir Barton miraculously won on the lead by open lengths.  He followed that with the Preakness and Belmont with wide margin victories.  After the Triple Crown, Sir Barton, nicknamed the Tender-Toed Typhoon, had a serviceable career that earned him a 49^th in ranking in the Bloodhorse poll but that career included a 7 length loss in a match race vs Man O’ War.  Registered Pre-Derby CSI figures: 95-88-79 – not great.

Locks Verdict: Like the chart comments in his early Saratoga losses, no factor.

🔒🔒

5      Seattle Slew 

Year Winning Triple Crown: 1977

Jockey: Jean Cruguet      

Trainer: Billy Turner Jr.   

Morning Line: 5-1

Record (Before Derby): 6-6-0-0

Record (Lifetime): 17-14-2-0

You can put a line through Seattle Slew July 1977 Swaps Stakes as Seattle Slew’s owners against advice of trainer Billy Turner was lured by Hollywood to run Seattle Slew on the West Coast and Seattle Slew’s record would be dominatingly near perfect.  Seattle Slew beat Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup (not too many of us can remember when sporting events could be sponsored by a cigarette brand).  Ranked 9^th in the Bloodhorse Poll.  One of the few to avoid the Saratoga curse of champions but to note only ran in an allowance race at the Spa. Seattle Slew was a true media superstar - Seattle Slew t-shirt sales were rivaling Farrah Fawcett’s.

Only knock would be relatively slow times in the Triple Crown races with CSIs of 98-108-89 (compare that to Secretariats Triple Crown CSIs 113-111-118) -- when asked of match up between Secretariat and Seattle Slew – Slew’s trainer said “we'd have blown him away”. 

Locks Verdict:  Just out of the money.

🔒🔒🔒

6      American Pharoah 

Year Winning Triple Crown: 2015

Jockey: Victor Espinoza  

Trainer: Bob Baffert        

Morning Line: 6-1

Record (Before Derby): 5-4-0-0

Record (Lifetime): 11-9-1-0

Great horse that has been overshadowed this year by his owner’s alleged overselling AP’s stallion shares – a strategy lifted right off the pages of the book:  Wild Ride: The Rise and Tragic Fall of Calumet Farm. Even though George W had trouble with the saying “Fool me once – shame on you.  Fool me twice – shame on me.” -- those that have loaned money to American Pharoah’s owner Ahmed Zayat are quite familiar with the phrase.  

Trying to keep positive lets focus more on the greatness of AP:

-        Only horse in field to add a Breeders Cup Classic victory to its accomplishments. 

-        In a mark of a true champion: AP is another of Triple Crown winner to taste defeat in Saratoga.

-        American Pharoah ran a faster final quarter mile in the Belmont than Secretariat. 

-        American Pharoah although not in the Bloodhorse poll has been ranked in other polls as the 15^th greatest race horse in US history.  

-        Broke the 37 year Triple Crown drought

Locks Verdict: Look at this to compare across generations.
🔒🔒🔒

7    Gallant Fox  

Year Winning Triple Crown: 1930

Jockey: Earl Sande           

Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons              

Morning Line: 20-1

Record (Before Derby): 8-3-2-2

Record (Lifetime): 17-11-3-2

Gallant Fox ranked 16^th in the Bloodhorse poll includes the Jockey Club Gold Cup as the colt’s best post Triple Crown victory.  Was the first Triple Crown owner to feel the sting of Saratoga being named the Graveyard of Champions by following up this colt’s Triple Crown with a loss later that year in the Travers.  Last 3 race Pre-Triple Crown CSI figures fits in with the average over the past 23 years.

Locks Verdict:  Better horses in field.
🔒🔒🔒

8    Citation 

Year winning Triple Crown: 1948

Jockey: Eddie Arcaro      

Trainer: Ben Jones           

Morning Line: 4-1

Record (Before Derby): 17-15-2-0

Record (Lifetime): 45-32-10-2

For those who followed and were big fans of the racehorse Cigar will remember Citation.  In July 1996, at the same track where Citation made his final public appearance nearly a half-century earlier Cigar joined Citation with 16 race win streak which was a 20th-century record for horses based in North America in a made-for-TV Arlington Citation Challenge.  Citation was a dominating 3yo colt -- by the end of his 3-year-old season, Citation had a record of 27 wins and 2 seconds in 29 starts and included in those wins beyond the Triple Crown included Jockey Club Gold Cup and a walkover in the Pimlico Special.  Set mile world record in the Golden Gate Mile.   Citation was the first $1m earning American thoroughbred and won a lion share of those earnings up to the end of his 3yo season. Ranked 3^rd in the Bloodhorse poll behind Secretariat and Man O’ War. Here is a horse that we can make some comparison between with others in the field given that Eddie Arcaro rode both Citation and Whirlaway – let’s look at some quotes by the legendary rider:

-        Citation was a superhorse with all the qualities of greatness.

-        He was the horse with no weakness. You could make four runs with him, not just one, as with Whirlaway.

-        He had great strength. You could do 14 things with him, and he'd respond to all of them. When he was 2 years old, he won 8 of 9 races. When he was 3, he won 19 of 20.

-        He was simply the best.

The Locks is going to take Eddie Arcaro’s advice and make Citation the Lock.

Locks Verdict: The Lock
🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒

9     War Admiral               

Year winning Triple Crown: 1937

Jockey: Charlie Kurtsinger            

Trainer: George Conway

Morning Line: 8-1

Record (Before Derby): 8-5-2-1

Record (Lifetime): 26-21-3-1

Perhaps the most accomplished son of the great Man O’ War is War Admiral.

-        Ranked 13^th in the Bloodhorse poll.

-        Only losses post Triple Crown was in the heavy bog of Suffolk Downs in the 1937 Massachusetts Handicap and in the match race of the century at Pimlico vs Seabiscuit in 1938.

-        Did not suffer the fate of many of other champions by posting a perfect 3 for 3 record at Saratoga

-        Won at distances ranging from 4.5furlongs to 2 miles.

-        Won the Belmont in then track record time.

-        Likely the speediest of the Virtual Derby field with 20 starts include leading at the first split.

-        Last 3 pre-Triple Crown CSI figures are an average of about 111 – compared to an average Kentucky Derby winner in last 23 years of just over 105.

Locks Verdict: Think Bodemeister in 2012 Kentucky Derby
🔒🔒🔒🔒

10   Whirlaway  

Year winning Triple Crown: 1941

Jockey: Eddie Arcaro      

Trainer: Ben Jones           

Morning Line: 4-1

Record (Before Derby): 24-11-4-6

Record (Lifetime): 60-32-15-9

Given the facts below the Locks was going to make Whirlaway the Virtual Derby Lock but was able to come across an interview with Eddie Arcaro quoted above and went with Citation – but Whirlaway has qualifies to consider:

-        Whirlaway is the only horse along with weaker competition Assault which will come off the pace. Given that up to 9 of the field will want the lead – Whirlaway would be well positioned to win a race in an actual race of these 13 champions.

-        Horses with the name beginning with ‘W’ as well as A and J win at a higher rate than other names.

-        3^rd highest last 3 pre-Triple Crown race CSI average in field

-        A Calumet Farm homebred – homebreds – 10 out of the last 17; 6 out of the last 10 Kentucky Derbies have been won by homebreds.

-        Ranked 28^th in the Bloodhorse poll.  

Locks Verdict:  Live.
🔒🔒🔒🔒

11    Count Fleet   

Year winning Triple Crown: 1943

Jockey: Johnny Longden

Trainer: Don Cameron    

Morning Line: 6-1

Record (Before Derby): 18-13-4-1

Record (Lifetime): 21-16-4-1

               Some facts on Count Fleet:

-        Owner was Fannie Hertz – sounds like a name you put on the attendance sheet when a substitute teacher is in.

-        Shortest price of a Kentucky Derby winner (paid $2.80 on a $2 wager)

-        Ranked 5^th in the Bloodhorse Top 100 American racehorses of the 20^th Century poll

-        Won the Belmont Stakes by 25 lengths – which was a record until Secretariats 1973 Belmont

-        Didn’t race after Triple Crown win.

-        Count Fleet is one of 6 Virtual Derby entries that was either 1^st or 2^nd at the first call during each Triple Crown Race.

-        Pre-Triple Crown CSI figures a solid: 104-109-108

Locks Verdict: Contender
🔒🔒🔒

12   Justify 

Year winning Triple Crown: 2018

Jockey: Mike Smith         

Trainer: Bob Baffert        

Morning Line: 15-1

Record (Before Derby): 3-3-0-0

Record (Lifetime): 6-6-0-0

              

               The Justify fact file:

-        Fog in Justify’s Preakness victory created one of the more dramatic Triple Crown finishes in recent memory.

-        Only undefeated Triple Crown winner

-        Only American Pharaoh and Justify did not race at Belmont before their Triple Crown starts.

-        Average last 3 race pre-Triple Crown CSI figures are 2^nd best in field.

-        Horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful than others winning at a 10.90% clip across Kentucky Derby history.

Locks Verdict:  Runs better than odds
🔒🔒🔒

13   Omaha 

Year winning Triple Crown: 1935

Jockey: Willie "Smokey" Saunders             

Trainer: Jim Fitzsimmons

Morning Line: 5-1

Record (Before Derby): 11-2-4-1

Record (Lifetime): 22-9-7-2

Omaha could be Peyton Manning’s pick for the Virtual Derby and there is some merit there with a late running style and a pre-Derby CSI figures of 105-108-101.

but won’t be the Locks pick. 

-        Was 0 for 8 in pre-Derby stakes races

-        Never won vs older horses in the US

-        Finished career racing in England including a 2^nd at Royal Ascot.

-        Ranked 61^st (lowest in field of 20^th Century runners) in the Bloodhorse poll

Locks Verdict: Peyton Manning vs Jets in January 2002 playoff game – to save yourself the google search: Jets beat the Colts 41-0 – Peyton Manning 14 for 31, 137 yards, 2 Int.
🔒🔒

The Locks:

◎ 8 Citation

○ 10 Whirlaway

▲ 3 Secretariat                                                       

△ 9 War Admiral

△ 5 Seattle Slew

Arkansas Derby – Division 1

◎ 1 Charlton 1/1

○ 9 Winning Impression 15-1

▲ 4 Gouverneur Morris 9/2

△  10 Crypto Cash 20-1

Arkansas Derby – Division 2

◎ 10 Farmington Road 12-1

○ 5 Nadal 5/2

▲ 4 King Guillermo 3-1

△  11 Wells Bayou 7-2

△  1 Finnick the Fierce 15-1

For the growing number of insomniacs - you can go into the night a highlight in the Japanese Spring racing schedule - the Tenno Sho (Spring) from Kyoto:

◎ 3 Tosen Cambina 20-1

○ 7 You Can Smile 3-1

▲ 14 Fierement 9-4

△  12 Shirvanshah 33-1

△ 11 Meisho Tengen 14-1

#KyDerbyAtHome #KentuckyDerby #StaySafe

---

[1] If this horse wins, given the times, in lieu of wearing said fashion item on my next international flight – I will wear on my next neighborhood walk and visit to the supermarket.