2019 Preakness Stakes Locks

Just a word on the Kentucky Derby before diving into the Preakness – despite all the talk and debate on how the results of the Kentucky Derby ended up – the Churchill Downs stewards made the right decision and possibly they got the **best** horse as winner.  

Looking at a view that they didn’t show on TV , clearly shows that Maximum Security drifted out 4-5 paths and wiped out the chances of several horses.  Under the guidelines that the Stewards are given – they made the right call.

The Stewards also consider….if an offending jockey acts in a dangerous manner, exhibits extremely improper riding or impedes several horses, the Stewards may disqualify the offending horse without regard to the specific effect of the foul on the order of finish.

But perhaps the best horse did actually win – consider the Trakus data.  Country House ran the fastest race:

Country House ran 54.076 feet/second

Maximum Security ran 53.74 feet/second

Actually Maximum Security was only the 4th best in the race as Game Winner and Tacitus also ran faster races.

The Preakness is as wide open a race as you can find – actually only have one toss.   Will be a race that pace will certainly factor in to who the winner will be as there are several horses that will want to be near the lead and then the races features several closers.  The Derby started off with fast fractions (22.31, 46.42) but Maximum Security was able to slow down the pace (1:12.50, 1:38.63) - if Preakness follows that form its anybody's race except the deep closers.  1:11-, 1:36- splits will allow closers such as Laughing Fox, Owendale, Bourbon War, Win Win Win to contend for the win.  Let's look at this competitive field:

1. War of Will (4-1) 

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione 

Ran a very courageous Kentucky Derby after being knocked around the most by Maximum Security.  Even with having to check hard was able to get back in stride missed by 4.5 lengths.  Has improved off of relatively short rest between races. WoW was going to be a horse that was to improve on a wet track so now for a fast surface expected at the Preakness.  Cannot discount the ability but at 4-1 will look elsewhere for top pick.

2. Bourbon War (12-1) 

Trainer: Mark Hennig

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Was one of two horses in this field that I had a Derby futures bet on after Bourbon War’s impressive optional claimer win in January.  Didn’t quite get enough points to get into the Derby but probably due to the colt’s running style while running at the speed favoring Gulfstream Park.  4^th place performance in Florida Derby flattered by finish of Maximum Security and Code of Honor in the Kentucky Derby.

3. Warrior's Charge (12-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Don’t think Brad Cox employed the services of Javier Castellano to run a rabbit for his closer Owendale – but think that Cox has both bases covered depending on the pace scenario that plays out.   Despite not yet running in stakes company, Warrior’s Charge has had 2 professional 2 turns wins.   Warrior’s Charge has legit talent and if pace can be controlled then WC may surprise a lot of people.

4. Improbable (5-2) 

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith 

Improbable’s morning line odds of 5/2 seems low and even with the presence of Baffert and now Smith taking the reins – 4/1 appears to be closer to the odds this one will go off at.   I liked this one the best of the Baffert trainees and did have the best finishing place of the 3 in the Derby.   Has the tactical speed running style that has done well at the Preakness in the past and will be able to rate off the pace if it is too hot.  Too good of a horse to keep out of mix but the low odds has the Locks looking elsewhere for top pick.

5. Owendale (10-1) 

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux 

The other half of Brad Cox entries but don’t expect his horses near each other at least for the first mile of the race.  As Warrior’s Charge will be on or near the lead – Owendale is expected to make his run from off the pace.  Owendale’s Lexington Stakes victory is made more impressive that actually ran 4.5 lengths longer distance that Anothertwistafate.  Can’t rule this one out as a hot pace will help this one.

6. Market King (30-1) 

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. 

Jockey: Jon Court

If just looking at the running lines – would have tossed this one but fact that the “Coach” aka the Foster Grant Kid is training – will not be shocked if this one wins.   Won’t be in my mix in the end but D. Wayne likes to have his picture taken.

7. Alwaysmining (8-1) 

Trainer: Kelly Rubley

Jockey: Daniel Centeno

Looking at the last 50 Preakness Stakes – odds should be against Alwaysmining, a locally bred and run gelding.  In the last 50 years, only in 1972, Bee Bee Bee raced in Maryland in the race preceding the Preakness and won.   Actually in that span 63 locally raced horses have ran in the Preakness and only 6 have come in the money and the average odds of those were 23+/1 so why am is the Locks willing to buck history at odds that actually go lower due to local interest than the 8-1 morning line.

- Alwaysmining is a winning machine – 6 straight wins, 7 in total where 3 is the highest win total of the other horses.

- Impressively easy wins – average win is about 6 lengths and these include wins over Win Win Win and several others that will be on the Preakness undercard.

- Will not need to be on the lead – in last race – jockey Daniel Centeno pulled Alwaysmining behind horses to get the experience of rating off the lead. 

- Good late pace figs and kept up speed and galloped out nicely in the 9 furlong Tesio Stakes – should have no problem with the Preakness distance 9.5 furlong distance.

- Although certainly a win in the Preakness will be jockey Daniel Centeno’s greatest accomplishment – he’s having a good year – winning in 23% of rides and 51% in top 3.  In line with top jockeys Jose Ortiz (17%/50%), Joel Rosario (22%/55%), Javier Castellano (21%/48%), John Velazquez (21%/54%).

- Only horse in the field that is either a son of or grandson of a Preakness winner on sire side (Win Win Win & Owendale have Preakness winning grandfathers on dam side).  Alwaysmining, grand-sire, Bernadini won the 2006 Preakness.

This is your 2019 Preakness Lock.

8. Signalman (30-1) 

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. 

My other Kentucky Derby futures bet after Signalman’s Kentucky Jockey Club win at Churchill Downs last November – narrowly missed making it to the gate in the Derby.   Would have gotten a bump by a sloppy track but it will be fast track but could move up on only 3^rd start off a layoff. 

9. Bodexpress (20-1) 

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: John Velazquez

Last race: 13th in Kentucky Derby (May 4 at Churchill Downs)

The 13^th place finish doesn’t really do justice on the race that Bodexpress ran in the Derby – was another one of the horses that was impacted by Max Security –after being near the lead - pretty much stopped but was able to get back to running and finished with good energy.  Will feature prominently in the pace and depending on how fast it goes could still near the lead at finish.

10. Everfast (50-1) 

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Joel Rosario

This is the Pink-Women’s-Size-Medium-Chase Utley Jersey challenge pick  (if this horse wins will wear said article of clothing at the next Mets game I will attend at Citifield).  Only flat out toss I have in the race. Despite picking up top jock, Joel Rosario, Everfast has missed by a total of 43 lengths in last 3 races. 

11. Laughing Fox (20-1) 

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. 

Another closer with a shot off the debut Oaklawn Invitational win - is flattered by Improbable and Country House's finish in the Kentucky Derby with a 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby.  If the pace is hot - it is which closer can finish the deal - this one can figure in the end but like Bourbon War and Owendale more.

12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) 

Trainer: Blaine Wright

Jockey: Jose Ortiz 

For some reason New Yorkers felt that the chances that the New York Knickerbockers had to win the Zion lottery was the same odds as Secretariat would have if running in a $10,000 claimer at Aqueduct – 1/9 or lower but in actuality it was 14% which roughly translates to 7-1 odds or similar to Anothertwistafate’s morning line odds.  Perhaps, Anothertwistafate odds are better than the ‘Bocker’s as picks up jockey Jose Ortiz.  A horse that is done nothing wrong since its debut race – 3 wins, 2 2nds.  2 9 furlong races – proved not only a polytrack specialist with good showings on true dirt.  Good late pace figs.  Need to keep in mix.

13. Win Win Win (15-1) 

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Julian Pimentel 

Liked how this horse was coming into the Derby and did enough in Derby to continue to like.  Similar to Alwaysmining is only horse that has raced (had first 3 races at Laurel), is trained locally (Fair Hill) and will be ridden by a local jockey.  WWW will come off the pace and will need hot fractions. 

The Locks are:

$20 WP #7 = $40

$1 Exacta #7 Alwaysmining over all = $1 x 1 x 12 = $12.

$1 exacta All over #7 = $1 x 12 x 1 = $12

$1 exacta #7, #12, #4, #2, #5 = $1 x 5 x 4 = $20

An alternative to that exacta bet is to go an almost sure thing in cashing a ticket but need favs to drop off the board to make a profit:

$1 All ex #10 over all ex #10 = $1 x 12 x 11 = $132

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