2019
Kentucky Derby Locks
Actually
started writing the Locks making analogous this wide-open Derby field with the wide-open
field of 2020 Democratic candidates for president. Then realized that there are actually 21
Democrats that have registered with the Federal Election Commission as
candidates and the Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 entrants – so thought
otherwise --- didn’t want to leave anyone out -- especially in our litigious
society .
But before we get into who will be this year’s winner – a quick look at the last 11 Locks.
But before we get into who will be this year’s winner – a quick look at the last 11 Locks.
Past Locks:
2018: Audible –
finish 3rd – odds: 7.00-1
2017: Always
Dreaming – 1st – odds: 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen
– 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing
Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd
– 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st
– 5.40-1
2012: Daddy
Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch
– 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd
– 11.70 -1
2009: Musket
Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown
– 1st – 2.40-1
Buoyed by these results, the Locks are going to continue
with the same strategy looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers:
Winners: Horses
that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not
run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking
for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking
for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the
winner of the Kentucky Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in
with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close
to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that had come
in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at
50-1.
Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins
have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with
only 2 wins was 20.90:1).
Accepting low
odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks winning strategy -- Plus Que
Parfait, By My Standards, Code of Honor, Tax, Cutting Humor, Country House,
Gray Magician, Master Fencer, Spinoff are all winners of only 1 or 2 races.
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts
a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a
guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is anything wrong with
that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young from a diet that
didn’t include anything but 2 liter Cokes, Hostess Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz
& Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the
race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need
to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those
splits.
From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby
winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile
– 2.1 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of
Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the
1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data,
there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winner and no others that won that were less
than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
However, the last
5 years, we have seen speedier horses prevail with average position off
pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.
But looking to fill your exotics since 2010,
-
2nd place horses have been (on average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8.5 lengths, 1
mile, 4 lengths off the lead.
-
3rd place horses: ½
mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.
It doesn’t appear that that there are any horses in the
race that are not able to be rated at all – but do have Vekoma,
Maximum Security followed by Bodexpress, War of Will, Tax and Spinoff that will want to be
close to the lead. The expectation - without the cheap speed/rabbit - is that
there will be a moderate pace (47+,1:11+).
As such it appears that one of these early/presser types would be the
Derby winner. However, the factor of
having a world class jockey compounded with having a horse that has tactical
speed (but my not have shown it through its past performances) may add
contenders. Read on.
Noted above since 2000 closers have helped fill the
exacta/trifecta spot and some of these are box-car bombs: Lookin at Lee (33-1),
Commanding Curve (38-1), Golden Soul (35-1), Dullahan (12-1), Denis of Cork
(27-1), Stepenwolfer (16-1) –even with a
moderate pace – need to keep an eye on closers in this field like Master
Fencer, Win Win Win and Country House to fill out your exacta and
trifecta tickets.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys history. Any reader of the Locks in
previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian
History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. Drinking Cossack vodka and YooHoo Black Russians
– apparently - is not a substitute for studying and when they didn’t include
how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew
from the class.
The history of the
Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather
Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the
Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.
Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea
and sweaty unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European
trips and found the Epsom Derby (which dates back to 1780) fascinating. As well
he discovered the French pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds.
So on his return to Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and
built Churchill Downs and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
The Locks does like to look at history when betting the
Derby as there is 144 years of data already accumulated which can give you some
clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
Last-race-C Speed
Index figures for the last 22 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses
with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that
won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole
exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 CSI.
There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also rewarded
the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The
other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a last race CSI of
105.85. This year 10 horses in the 20 horse field have last race sub-100
CSIs.
In the same 22
year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a
Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year,
only the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races: Tacitus,
Vekoma, By My Standards, Maximum Security, Tax, Spinoff
Homebreds have
been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 16 and 5 out of the last
9 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them. In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Master Fencer,
Spinoff, Country House, Win Win Win, Long Range Toddy, Code of Honor,
Maximum Security, Tacitus are all homebreds.
Derby horses
names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very
successful with a record of 10 wins out of 192 starters (5.2%). Vekoma and Improbable are looking to buck the
trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning
at a 10.90% clip – Win Win Win & War of Will are this year’s “W” horses.
Win Win Win
(FL) and Master Fencer (JPN) are the only non-Kentucky breds Derby
starters. Florida has only bred 6 Derby
winners including Silver Charm in 1997 and Triple Crown winner Affirmed. But
note 5 Florida-breds have hit the board in the last 16 years. There has never
been a Japanese-bred horse that has raced in the Kentucky Derby. The last
non-US bred horse to win the Derby was in 1983 which was Canadian bred Sunny’s
Halo – the only other Canadian-bred winner was Northern Dancer. Most of this year’s field has lineage within
5 generations to Northern Dancer.
Betting on Derby
horses that have exclusively raced outside the US has proven as successful as
the Fyre Festival as there have been no in-the-money finishes in 10 starts
since 1967. Master Fencer has only raced in Japan. No horse that raced in Japan
has been draped in a blanket of roses. Other horses that have raced in Japan in
last 50 years are Lani (9th place) and Ski Captain (14th).
Since 1914, no
Derby winner has broke its maiden at Remington Park (Long Range Toddy), Fair
Grounds (By My Standards), Laurel (Win Win Win).
Two-thirds of
Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first
or second start including 16 out of the last 19 Derby winners. These entries took longer to break their
maidens: Plus Que Parfait (3rd
start), By My Standards (4th start), War of Will (5th
start), Cutting Humor (3rd start), Country House (3rd
start), Gray Magician (4th start), Master Fencer (3rd
start).
Currently the
streak of Derby winners who come into the race off a win their last prep is 8. The longest such streak based on data from
1940.
Also the streak
of favorites winning the Derby also stands at 6 which is the longest such
streak in Kentucky Derby history. This
comes after a period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby
once. The Locks feels that this streak
comes to an end this year.
Since 1952, no
Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race
before the Derby, War of Will (9th Louisiana Derby) and Long Range
Toddy (6th Arkansas Derby) have had clunkers in their last race.
Now to the 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders:
1 War
of Will 15-1
Owner: Gary
Barber
Trainer: Mark
Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Sire : War
Front $250,000
Dam: Visions of
Clarity (IRE) by Sadler’s Wells
Race
Record: 8:3-1-1
CSI Figures:
106-102-94
Owner Gary
Barber is a Hollywood power player with producing film credits on some good
flicks Ace Ventura, True Romance and
appropriately for a long time racehorse owner, Seabiscuit – although there were some not-so-good ones in there too
– Young Guns II, Major League II and Reigns of Fire which is described as a
2002 post-apocalyptic science fantasy film starring Matthew McConaughey and
Christian Bale. Despite the acting chops
of Wooderson and American Psycho, once the words ‘post-apocalyptic’ is tagged
to a movie – The Locks smells flop. Flop
also describes War of Will’s Louisiana Derby 9th place finish. Purchased at a 2yo breeze up sale in
Deauville last year, WoW was on his way to become the early Derby
favorite. But, WoW’s Louisiana Derby
performance can be equated to Kevin Costner’s work in the Gary Barber produced Dragonfly the long forgotten 2002
supernatural fantasy film which was described by critics as “dull”, “boring”,
“dopey” and “absurd disappointment”. It
does beg the question of what WoW will show up on the first Saturday of May –
the one with breeding made to run the Derby 10 furlongs, the one that is a 2
turn winner at Churchill Downs and the one that rattled off wins in 3 races
after switching from turf to dirt including the Grade 3 LeComte & Grade 2
Risen Star OR the one that closed the Risen Star in a 13.5 last furlong and the
one that bombed in the Louisiana Derby like Gary Barber’s Wrongfully Accused a 1998 German-American satirical comedy starring
Leslie Nielsen as a man who has been framed for murder and desperately attempts
to expose the true culprits.
For those that want to play an astrology angle, War of Will is your pick, at post time -- the new moon is in the constellation Taurus. With Taureans having strong-willed and stubborn traits - War of Will is the celestial pick. With other Derby entrants on the rise and WoW stuck in the dreaded #1 post position and no matter how many stars are aligned - the Locks will pass on War of Will.
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For those that want to play an astrology angle, War of Will is your pick, at post time -- the new moon is in the constellation Taurus. With Taureans having strong-willed and stubborn traits - War of Will is the celestial pick. With other Derby entrants on the rise and WoW stuck in the dreaded #1 post position and no matter how many stars are aligned - the Locks will pass on War of Will.
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2 Tax 20-1
Owner: R. A.
Hill Stable Reeves Thoroughbred
Trainer: Danny
Gargan
Jockey: Junior
Alvarado
Sire : Arch
Dam: Toll by
Giant’s Causeway
Race Record:
5:2-2-1
CSI Figures:
106-110-102
Claiborne Farm
can’t be too upset that they lost their homebred, Tax, in a Maiden Claiming
race in October last year as they are well represented by having 4 Derby
entrants that are sired by Claiborne Farm stallions (Omaha Beach, War of Will,
Cutting Humor and Tax). But then again – for all the history of Claiborne Farm
– they only have, as owner, won one Kentucky Derby with homebred Swale in 1984
and Tax is a live contender. Claiborne
Farm names their horses like they are Brazilian soccer stars with single word
names thus Tax seems aptly named as progeny of a Claiborne mare Toll. Claiborne’s loss was Randy Hill and Dean
Reeves gain as being the ones that made the lucky claim. Since the claim and being put in the hands
of trainer Danny Gargan, Tax has rattled off 3 in-the-money finishes in 3
graded stakes including the win in the 9 furlong Withers Stakes. Tax out of the sire Arch has the stamina for
the Derby and along with Master Fencer are the only ones in the Derby with 3 –
9 furlong starts - all 3 being graded stakes.
Tax also is only horse in field with 3 100+ BrisNet speed figs. Tax has
also shown tactical speed which has been the running style of recent Derby
winners. Even though Tax is popping from the 2 hole - if had to choose between
the propositions of Tax winning the Kentucky Derby and the New York Jets making Super Bowl LIV certainly would bet on Tax.
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3 By
My Standards 15-1
Owner: Allied Racing Stable LLC
Trainer: W
Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel
Saez
Sire : Goldencents $20,000
Dam: A Jealous
Woman by Muqtarib
Race Record:
5:2-2-1
CSI Figures:
95-99-106
Owner Chester
Thomas who is as subtle as a Zion Williamson dunk operates under the
nom-de-race Allied Racing. He made his
money in the Western Kentucky coal mines and has owned several race horses over
the years but never a graded stakes winner until By My Standards. His next best recent horse was a race mare
named Viam Inveniam – meaning ‘find the way’ in Latin. The phrase actually is
attributed to Hannibal as it was his response to his generals that told him
they couldn’t pass through the Alps with elephants --- Hannibal responded Aut viam inveniam aut faciam – ‘find a
way or make one’. Gabriel Saez, By My
Standards’ jockey in the Louisiana Derby didn’t need to make his own way – he
found the path of least resistance – rail trip, into a seam and back to the
rail and by finding the shortest trip to the wire had the energy to fight off
Spinoff who was parked 4 wide most of the trip. The time the stop watch stopped
in the Louisiana Derby holds up well versus the Oaks prep fillies and older
handicap horses that were also run that day.
But questions of this horse will surround if can get the Derby distance
– sire Goldencents was 2x Breeders Cup Dirt Mile champ after faltering at the
10 furlong Derby distance while the mare was a turf miler – the average winning
distance of the dam sire’s progeny is 5.8 furlongs (shortest of the field).
Also some comments by owner and trainer have veiled questions about the horse’s
ability to get the 10 furlongs. Given
these questions and that the Louisiana Derby was this colt’s first race outside
maiden company will choose to not use in the mix.
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4 Gray
Magician 50-1
Owner: Wachtel Stable Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
Trainer: Peter
Miller
Jockey: Drayden
Van Dyke
Sire : Graydar $7,500
Dam: Burg Berg
by Johannesburg
Race Record:
8:1-3-2
CSI
Figures:104-95-99
Gray Magician
is this years “Pink-Tom-Brady-Women’s-Size-Medium-Jersey”[1]
challenge selection for 2019. Gray
Magician has only 1 win in 8 starts and looking at records since 1976 only
Giacomo (2005) and Alysheba (1987) have won the Derby off only 1 win in their
career. Before finishing 2nd
in – what appears to be a lackluster- UAE Derby, Gray Magician lost 3 races by
a total of 15+ lengths with BrisNet Late Pace figures of 89,67,73 which are
poor figures. One of the losses was in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Park which
was won by Alwaysmining who is the strongest non-Derby running contender in the
next leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness.
Gray Magician loses Joel Rosario who rode the colt in the UAE Derby who
has chosen to ride Game Winner. Has the field’s lowest Brisnet Prime Power
figure. No Beyer Speed figure higher than 80. Although comes out of a
stakes-winning dam, Burg Berg was better at flat 1 mile races on turf. Trainer Peter Miller is brilliant with sprinters
but has had less success with routing horses. Look for jockey Drayden Van Dyke
inexplicably pulling Gray Magician to back of the pack and then racing 5-6
wide. Also will be further compromised by an off track as worst race in career
comes on a sloppy track. If the Derby
were the 2020 Democratic presidential race, Gray Magician would be the Eric
Swalwell of the field.
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5
Improbable 5-1
Owner: Winstar
Farm, China Horse Club International
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: Irad
Ortiz, Jr.
Sire : City Zip
Dam: Rare Event
by AP Indy
Race Record: 5:3-2-0
CSI Figures:
109-101-110
Improbable
appears to be appropriately named - as progeny of City Zip are not supposed to
run long and tend to prefer the turf over the dirt. Thus, this colt lining up as one of the
favorites on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs is improbable. Improbable certainly earned its way into the
starting gate – 3 wins/2 2nds in 5 tries – one of the wins was a 2 turn race at
Churchill Downs on the Breeder’s Cup undercard which Improbable won by 7
lengths – extrapolating that race’s time to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile distance
– appears would have beat Game Winner in the Breeder’s Cup race. Also
Improbable’s race time would have beat a field of older former Kentucky Derby
runners also on that card. Perhaps
Improbable’s dam by AP Indy is giving the colt stamina – but if anyone is to
know if a son of City Zip can get 10 furlongs it has to be Bob Baffert. Bob Baffert campaigned Collected for the same
owners as Roadster who was a $3m-earning City Zip colt that won the 10f Pacific
Classic. Baffert’s comments about this
colt are somewhat telling in calling Improbable a smaller version of Triple
Crown winning Justify and wasn’t just talking about the fact that Improbable
and Justify have the same ownership but the colt’s long stride. Baffert even
put Improbable into Justify’s old stall when Justify retired. If Oaklawn had Trakus data, it would show
that Improbable ran the faster Rebel Stakes than Long Range Toddy and was taken
5 wide to avoid dirt getting kicked in face in the Arkansas Derby. If there are knocks on Improbable it is the
fact that Jose Ortiz chose to ride Tacitus over Improbable and the fact that
Improbable was nearly scratched out of the Arkansas Derby because Improbable was
difficult to load into the starting gate. If there is a repeat in the Derby –
the energy used fighting getting into the gate may just be enough to impact the
race.
Considering
that in the 9 years that Bob Baffert has entered multiple entrants that the
median finish of his best finishing horse is 2nd – so it is expected
at least of one of Baffert’s entry will hit the board – it’s now determining
which Baffert trainee that will be.
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6 Vekoma
15-1
Owner: R. A.
Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables
Trainer: George
Weaver
Jockey: Javier
Castellano
Sire : Candy
Ride $80,000
Dam: Mona de
Momma by Speightstown
Race Record:
4:3-0-1
CSI Figures:111-103-101
Vekoma, named
after a Dutch roller coaster company, certainly, has given owners Ted and Mike
Gastas of New Hampshire and Randy Hill from Texas a ride. Winner
of the Blue Grass Stakes represents the Gastas’ (Ted being the former mayor of
Manchester, NH) and Randy Hill’s (made his money selling used semi trailers as
store bins – who woulda thunk?) first derby horse. Lot to like about this horse on the surface
1) winning the Blue Grass, 2) has the top CSI figure in the field, 3) top
Brisnet Prime Power index (kind of like a RPI for horse racing taking
performance and strength of schedule into account) 4) stakes winning mare that
actually has won on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. 5) no out of the
money starts 6) tactical speed. But
looking a bit further shows why the Locks will look elsewhere: top CSI fig was earned in a flat 1 mile race
last November -- dam side is speed not stamina – Speightstown the dam-sire is a
brilliant speed sire with average winning distance of progeny of only 6.5
furlongs – the dam was a stakes winner at 6.5f and 7f – the Brisnet late pace
figs for last 3 races are in the 80s (no other Derby horse except Gray Magician
has such low figs for last 3 races). A talented horse that may see later in
season in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile but not a Derby winner.
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7 Maximum
Security 8-1
Owner: Gary and
Mary West
Trainer: Jason
Servis
Jockey: Luis
Saez
Sire : New
Year’s Day $150,000
Dam: Lil Indy
by Anasheed
Race
Record: 4:4-0-0
CSI Figures:
103-91-102
As mentioned
below, the al Maktoums have spent 100s of millions of dollars on horseflesh to
chase the Derby dream -- so it is incredible to think that on December 20th
less than 5 months ago, you could have claimed Maximum Security for $16,000.
Four wins and nearly $700k of earnings later Maximum Security sits as the 5th
favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Only 2
Derby winners have won a maiden claiming race on way to winning the Derby, both
improbable victors, Mine that Bird in 2009 and Charismatic in 1999. Since 2000, beyond Mine that Bird only 9
Derby runners had previously run in a claiming race – the median finish of
those 9 starters is 15th.
Although since 1915, undefeated Derby entrants have won 9 times given 29
chances (31%), this colt is an unlikely winner.
Since 2000, 3 horses came into the Derby with a similar profile as
Maximum Security – lightly raced – undefeated – all races coming at Gulfstream
Park – Materiality in 2015, Dunkirk in 2009 and Trippi in 2000, these horses
finished 6th, 11th, & 16th in the Derby,
respectively. The first 3 races of Maximum Security’s short career were one
turn sprint races which this colt dominated including an 18 length romp on
February 20th – but Maximum Security’s Florida Derby was as much as
a win for Luis Saez as the colt’s – Saez
got to the lead and then slowed the pace to :48.4,1:12.4 fractions and galloped
out to victory. Maximum Security won’t
be able to do the same in the cavalry charge of the Kentucky Derby. Although
this one may ultimately end up a successful sprinter/miler, look for a finish
in the bottom half of the Derby field.
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8 Tacitus
8-1
Owner:
Juddmonte Farms Inc.
Trainer: Bill
Mott
Jockey: Jose
Ortiz
Sire : Tapit $225,000
Dam: Close
Hatches by First Defense
Race Record:
4:3-0-0
CSI Figures:
99-101-103
I am sure if
Tacitus, the first century Roman senator that this colt is named after, was
handicapping the Derby – he, known for his writing of the Annals, would also, like the Locks, use the Derby’s history to
guide what to wager his hard-earned aureus on.
Both owner Juddmonte Farms and trainer Bill Mott are considered some of
the very best in the game but neither have found success in the elusive
Kentucky Derby. Juddmonte has campaigned
champions like Arrogate and Frankel but only 5 horses have run under the
Juddmonte colors in the Kentucky Derby.
Even though Juddmonte is without a Kentucky Derby win, Aptitude in 2000
and Empire Maker in 2003 have had runner-up finishes and Hofburg last year’s
Juddmonte Derby entrant ended up 3rd in the Belmont. As for Bill Mott, the tag of ‘best trainer
not to win the Kentucky Derby’ does a tremendous disservice to Bill Mott’s
career. I am certain if Mott or the
excellent owners he works with put a single race as their number one priority –
Mott would have multiple Derby victories but Mott is a patient trainer who does
right by his horses and manages their whole 2-4+ year careers not just for a
single race. But Tacitus may be the very
horse to give Juddmonte and Bill Mott their first Derby victory and is the 2019 Lock. Luckily we have unearthed some of Tacitus’
(the Roman one) handicapping notes:
- Royal breeding – Tacitus is the first foal out of Champion mare Close Hatches who earned $2.7million in her 9 victory career – Tapit is arguably the best US based sire who has sired 4 Breeder’s Cup champions and 3 Belmont Stakes winners and has produced 26 $1m+ yearlings. Non procul a proprio stipite poma cadunt
- Among the top-flight jockeys that will ride in the Derby, few will argue that Jose Ortiz has not stamped himself as best in the game since 2016. Usus magister est optimus
- 3 for 3 since a 4th in debut race.
- Tacitus’ Wood was faster than the older handicap horses and over 1 second faster than the Gazelle, an Oaks prep. Ignavum fortuna repugnat
- Raced in only 2 races in 2019 and is looking to even further improve in the Derby.
- Triple digit figures in last race CSI, Brisnet Speed, Brisnet Late Pace. Slow actual come home time in Wood was concern but faster in comparison to handicap race and proven by the 100+ Brisnet Late pace figure – concern mitigated. Nihil sollicitus sis, aequo animo fer
- Won Wood despite having to take up twice and running on wrong lead for half of the stretch. Periculum in mora
- Has shown ability to rate but will not be too far off pace. Festina lente
- Since year 2000, gray horses have finished in a superfecta finish (top 4) in 28% of the entries - better than the expected value of 20%. Canus honoretur, puer ad documenta citetur
Despite an
expected tepid pace, feel that Jose Ortiz will be able to put Tacitus in to the
race early if needed and that Tacitus is talented enough to respond. Alternatively, if the pace is faster than
expected, Jose Ortiz will let Tacitus run in the stretch for victory.
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9 Plus
Que Parfait 30-1
Owner: Imperial
Racing LLC
Trainer:
Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Ricardo
Santana Jr.
Sire : Point of
Entry $20,000
Dam: Belvedera
by Awesome Again
Race Record:
7:2-1-2
CSI Figures:
99-82-xxx
With a name
that means more than perfect, Plus
Que Parfait had been less than perfect racing in the US in 2019 including a 13th
place, 20 lengths off the winner in the Risen Star Stakes and a 5th,
more than 6 lengths off the winner in the LeComte Stakes. PQP’s UAE Derby win
was also not as impressive as Mendelsohn’s race last year and if extrapolated
out to the Dubai World Cup distance – PQP would have been near the back of the
pack in that race. As Imperial Racing
LLC has campaigned horses named Violent Nature, To Fight and Arakadag (homage
to a Turkmenistan autocrat), the Locks is going to avoid any further negatives
on the horse’s chances of winning the Derby.
Nice horsey!
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10 Cutting
Humor 30-1
Owner: Starlight
Stables
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Corie
Lanerie Mike Smith
Sire : First Samurai $15,000
Dam: Pun by
Pulpit
Race Record:
6-2-2-1
CSI Figures:
105-87-105
Eerily Cutting
Humor follows the same racing pattern as 2017 Derby entry Hence - 2 wins
including a maiden race and the Sunland Park Derby which creates a sandwich
around a dismal 7th place finish in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn
Park. Both also experienced a
significant jump in speed figs at the Sunland Park Derby compared to prior
performances. Hence closed from 18th
place to get 11th but not at all threatening to the top 3
finishers. Perhaps this is the same fate
for Cutting Humor. Cutting Humor would
be more compelling as a wager without the clunker in the Southwest Stakes with
increasingly better performances with each run.
But do need to take into account that John Velazquez jumps off this one
to ride Code of Honor. After Johnny V
committed to another horse, Todd Pletcher had to resort to scouring Jockey
Tinder to find a mount for Cutting Humor – ultimately Corie Lanerie agreed to
the date at the last minute but then Pletcher spurned Lanerie and got Big Money Mike Smith off of the Omaha Beach scratch. I am guessing the Tinder scenario of snagging a date last minute only to call that date one off after a more attractive option opens up after their more attractive option falls through is quite common.๐ Also consider
that Pletcher’s record in the Derby is still one to question - 2 wins in 52
tries. Pass.
๐๐๐
๐๐๐
Unfortunately, Omaha Beach scratched.
13 Code of Honor 12-1
Owner: William
Farish
Trainer: Shug
McGaughey III
Jockey: John
Velazquez
Sire : Noble
Mission (GB) $15,000
Dam: Reunited by
Dixie Union
Race
Record: 5:2-1-1
CSI Figures:
92-106-95
Code of Honor’s connections (owner,
breeder, trainer, jockey) in combination are gold standard. William Farish’s Lanes End Farm has bred 1
Kentucky Derby winner (Charismatic) and also 2 2nd place finishers
and 1 3rd place finishers – 15 starters in total. Farish still
awaits a Derby victory as owner. Farish
was Ambassador of the United States to the Court of St James's (aka the
Ambassador to the UK) under Bush 43 and those that have held that position is a
who’s who in American history (future presidents, vice presidents, captains of
industry) . Included in this group are a few sportsmen including W. Averell
Harriman who owned many racehorses that he bought from the August Belmont
estate but sporting success by those holding the position is not necessarily
guaranteed-- the current UK Ambassador is Woody Johnson, the owner of the NY
Jets. Shug McGaughey has won the Derby
with Orb in 2013 but the best horse he brought to the Derby was Hall of Fame
colt Easy Goer in 1989. Shug doesn’t
bring horses just to run in the Derby as 6 out of 7 horses he’s saddled in the
Derby finished in the top half of the field. This will be the 21st mount
for jockey John Velazquez and has 2 wins (Animal Kingdom 2011, Always Dreaming
2017) for his efforts. Given success of
the connections – the horse itself has a lot to do with the result -- overall
CoH appears to be a few lengths slower than the top contenders. Speed figures
don’t seem to stack up to get the win but closing style may pick up the pieces
and finish in top half of the field.
๐๐๐
๐๐๐
14 Win
Win Win 12-1
Owner: Live Oak
Plantation
Trainer:
Michael Trombetta
Jockey: Julian
Pimentel
Sire : Hat
Trick (JPN)
Dam: Miss
Smarty Pants by Smarty Jones
Race Record:
6:3-2-1
CSI Figures: 111-98-97
Win Win Win is
a homebred of Charlotte Weber’s Live Oak Plantation. Weber is the
grand-daughter of the founder of Campbell Soup.
Live Oak typically uses the word “Souper”
as a naming convention as in Souper Echo, Souper Jaguar, Souper Jackpot, Souper
Escape as a small example of names Live Oak has used for their horses. This colt has won, won, won – 3 wins – 2 at
Laurel and 1 in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs but biggest race was
probably his 2nd place by a nose in the Blue Grass which gave the
points necessary to get into the Derby.
Although this horse has done nothing wrong in his career – all 6 races
in-the-money – WWW has not won going 2 turns – 2nd in Blue Grass and
3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby and did show a drop of speed figs from
the 7 furlong Pasco to WWW’s next 2 longer stakes races. Looking back others that used the Pasco as a
Derby prep saw their speed figs cut when they extended distances with finishes
in the Derby of 16th, 18th, 10th and….3rd
(2009 Lock Musket Man). Consider in the exotics.
๐๐๐+
๐๐๐+
15
Master Fencer 50-1
Owner: Katsumi
Yoshizawa
Trainer: K
Tsunoda
Jockey: Julien
Leparoux
Sire : Just a Way (JPN)
Dam: Sexy
Zamurai by Deputy Minister
Race Record:
6:2-2-0
CSI Figures:
xx-xx-xx
Master Fencer
is an intriguing entry. Master Fencer
will have no issue with 10 furlong distance that has undone many in their
pursuit for the blanket of roses – actually Master Fencer is the only Derby
horse that actually has run the Derby distance of 1 ¼ mile (actually twice before) and
also has run 9 furlongs (longest distance run by most of the field) an
additional 3 times. Locks
Exclusive: Master Fencer will come off the pace and had the fastest
closing 1/4 mile in each of this colt’s last 4 races including final furlong
finishes in the 12s on deeper and slower Japanese dirt tracks. Despite these positives, Master Fencer
doesn’t represent the best of Japan’s 3yos who generally would race on turf and
isn’t even the best of the dirt specialists as 2 others, Oval Ace and Der Flug
appear to be more talented. These two
Japanese colts are a combined 6 for 6 in their races to date and received
invitations to the Derby ahead of Master Fencer but would have had to pay a
$200k entry fee due to not having been Triple Crown nominated and thus
declined invitations. Although the Japan
Racing Association (JRA) due to the Japanese interest (horse racing in Japan is
treated like a major league sport) in Master Fencer will feature betting on the
Kentucky Derby for the first time (Japan only started allowing betting on
non-Japanese races in 2016), the JRA betting pool for the Derby will be
separate from the US pool - thus expect Master Fencer’s odds to be 50+-1. With the stamina and late kick of Master
Fencer – the Locks needs to keep this colt in the mix for exotics.
๐๐๐+
๐๐๐+
16 Game
Winner 9-2
Owner: Gary and
Mary West
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: Joel
Rosario
Sire : Candy
Ride $80,000
Dam: Indyan
Giving by AP Indy
Race
Record: 6:4-2-0
CSI Figures: 100-101-101
After finding
out that Gary and Mary West made their fortune from a telecommunications
company which started in their garage in Omaha, Nebraska – I looked to see what
other famous people were from Omaha and actually only expected to see one entry
– Warren Buffet. Shockingly found a list
of Omahans that is an all-star list – Marlon Brando (is Game Winner a contender??),
Henry & Peter Fonda, the guy “Oz” from American Pie, Fred Astaire, Malcolm
X, Wade Boggs, Nick Nolte, Gabrielle Union (I don’t know if I’ve watched those
Gatorade ads too many times but something tells me that Dwayne Wade will need
to find a job to get out of the house – pronto!), Conor Oberst (check out the music from his latest project,
Better Oblivion Community Center) and
70’s era song-writer Paul Williams. More Omaha talk in the Locks than a Peyton Manning snap count.
There is so much to like about this colt:
-
Has
done nothing wrong in career 4 wins, 2 place finishes. As Derby Day is Star Wars Day (May the Fourth Be With You), Game Winner is the R2D2 of the Derby field - reliable and always there in the end. RIP Peter Mayhew (Chewbacca).
- Already a 2 turn winner at Churchill Downs
- Despite a 2nd place finish, Trakus data shows that Game Winner ran a faster Santa Anita Derby than winner Roadster (54.5 ft/sec vs 54.2 ft/sec).
- 2yo champion – although from 1980-2018 only 2 2yo champions have won the Derby (Street Sense & American Pharoah). In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, 2nd place finisher was 2yo champion Good Magic.
- Winner of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile which showed ability to overcome large field after being jostled at start.
- Winner of the American Pharoah Stakes (nee Frontrunner Stakes) where the runners of this Derby prep have a median finish position of 6th (with an expected median finish of 9th).
- Joel Rosario is one of the best jockeys in the land with a Kentucky Derby win (Orb, 2015).
- Already a 2 turn winner at Churchill Downs
- Despite a 2nd place finish, Trakus data shows that Game Winner ran a faster Santa Anita Derby than winner Roadster (54.5 ft/sec vs 54.2 ft/sec).
- 2yo champion – although from 1980-2018 only 2 2yo champions have won the Derby (Street Sense & American Pharoah). In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, 2nd place finisher was 2yo champion Good Magic.
- Winner of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile which showed ability to overcome large field after being jostled at start.
- Winner of the American Pharoah Stakes (nee Frontrunner Stakes) where the runners of this Derby prep have a median finish position of 6th (with an expected median finish of 9th).
- Joel Rosario is one of the best jockeys in the land with a Kentucky Derby win (Orb, 2015).
- In last 4 mounts has an average Derby finish of 4th.
The matchup
between Baffert trainees, Improbable (5-1), Game Winner (9-2), Roadster (5-1) is
more anticipated than the Battle of Winterfell (for older readers, read that as
‘Guns and Roses’ Chinese Democracy’).
๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐
17
Roadster 5-1
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: Florent
Geroux
Sire : Quality Road
$150,000
Dam: Ghost
Dancing by Silver Ghost
Race Record:
4:3-0-1
CSI Figures: 105-104-102
Naming of the
horse Roadster doesn’t really have much to do with the ownership’s name
Speedway Stable as one might think.
Speedway is named after the Houston, Texas street Buffalo Speedway which
one of the owners Peter Fluor has his roots.
Fluor has made money both from his family’s company the Fluor
Corporation, which was involved in the Manhattan Project, and also from his own
energy business. Although his dad had investment in Alleged – a two time L’Arc
winner – Peter Fluor did not get into thoroughbred ownership until 2014. Fluor has had some nice race fillies and also
a colt Collected who ran in the Preakness but Roadster represents Speedway’s
first shot at the Derby. Roadster will
go off at low odds given its Santa Anita Derby win and fact that Bob Baffert (5
time Derby winner, 11 of 29 in-the-money finishes) trains. Roadster is clearly a talent – 3 wins in 4
starts – a 3rd in its other start – beating 2yo champion Game Winner
and Instagrand, a horse that last year people were tabbing as a superhorse (also is running on Derby undercard).
However, at such low odds, want to avoid some
of the negatives that Roadster has:
- Been plagued with quarter cracks on multiple hooves and has had corrective surgery for breathing – admittedly, these haven’t impacted Roadster’s training schedule
- Missing out on recording a triple digit Brisnet fig in all race.
- Mike Smith jumping off Roadster in favor of Omaha Beach.
The Locks
equates the Baffert contender trainees with the Guns and Roses trio of Axl
Rose, Slash and Izzy Stradlin. Analysis
shows that Improbable is Izzy, Game Winner is Slash and Roadster is Axl. Improbable is the true underrated musical talent with
Game Winner as an adequate guitarist with flair and Roadster as a now bloated showmen.
Improbable and Game Winner hit the board and the other is in a trashed
hotel room at the Chateau Marmont.
๐๐๐
๐๐๐
18
Long Range Toddy 30-1
Owner: Willis
Horton Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve
Asmussen
Jockey: Jon
Court
Sire : Take
Charge Indy
Dam: Pleasant
Song by Unbridled’s Song
Race Record:
7:4-1-1
CSI Figures:
110-94-101
Long Range
Toddy is named after owner Willis Horton’s daughter-in-law’s nephew. Horton admitted “I’ve named lots of horses
and I’m running out of names” which reads that the Todd that this horse is
named after is not in Horton’s last will and testament. Since 2000, only I’ll Have Another and the
improbable Mine that Bird have won the Derby after not being the favorite in
any of their prep races to the Derby. Take note that no Kentucky Derby winner
has broken its maiden at Remington Park.
Long Range Toddy, however, looks to buck the trend to become an unlikely
Derby winner, as LRT does join Game Winner and Maximum Security as the only
horses in the field with 4 wins and also has increasing speed figs. But LRT’s
Arkansas Derby was as smooth as UK’s exit from the EU – pressed and faded to 6th
– 14+ lengths behind the winner – this finish could be explained by not taking
to the sloppy track. Despite some
positives overall LRT seems to be a few lengths slower than the rest of the top
contenders and although should outrun its odds will not be in the mix at the
end.
๐๐๐
๐๐๐
19
Spinoff 30-1
Owner:
Wertheimer et Frere
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Manny
Franco
Sire : Hard
Spun $40,000
Dam: Zaftig by
Gone West
Race
Record: 4:2-1-1
CSI
Figures:101-110-105
Among the finery
at the Kentucky Derby will be the owners of the House of Chanel who also happen
to be the owners of Spinoff – French billionaire brothers, Alain and Gerard
Wertheimer. Horses running under the
famous Wetheimer silks have also won the Epsom Derby and the French Derby as
well as Prix du L’ Arc de Triomphe. As
expected from a Wertheimer et Frere horse, breeding will be as fine as the
Bordeaux wine that the Wetheimers make at their Saint-Emilion wineries. Hard
Spun, Spinoff’s sire, was 2nd in the Derby and the mare Zaftig had
recorded the 2nd highest Beyer figure for any 3yo in 2008 while
winning the Grade 1 Acorn. Spinoff -- lightly raced with good speed figs and a
pressing style that has proved successful in last several years. The Chanel in-house color consultant was well
aware that out of the 6 primary & secondary colors that the Wertheimer
colors of blue is the most cited color of the silks of Derby winners since
1908. Given this- Spinoff has a
chance to spring the upset. Also to note that although Fair Grounds doesn’t
have Trakus data but if it did – would likely to show that Spinoff - who ran 4
wide most of the Louisiana Derby -- ran several lengths longer and thus a
faster race than winner By My Standards.
The reason why Spinoff ran 4 wide that day, however, may be the colt’s
undoing, as the horse did not break well.
Looking at other of the colt’s races appears that getting off to a good
start is an issue. Combined with the facts that the horse has success when
involved in the race early and given the 20 horse field with more than 3/4s of
the entries looking to be running on or just off the pace – if gets a good break could be a real factor but I feel that Spinoff
may not be able to run his race especially springing from gate 17 and in the
end may not be strutting down the Churchill Downs catwalk with a garland of
roses.
Although the Wertheimer’s will have no
trouble getting into the country to watch their horse’s race, those that
actually are experienced to take care of Spinoff and the other Derby horses may
not. Spinoff’s trainer, Todd Pletcher,
as well as many of the major trainers who applied for H1B visas to support
their stables during the peak spring to fall season, had all of his visa
applications denied. Trainers have cited
that they will have to cut down their stable sizes as they feel it will be
impossible to find those not requiring visas who will take the jobs much less
finding that many that have actual experience caring for horses. There is a definite knock-on effect on the
industry ->less horses in racing stables at the track –>smaller fields of
horses enter the gate –> less competitive races -> less betting –>less
money to pay in purses back to owners/trainers –> less money to buy horses
–> less money into breeding and stabling horses on farms.
Think that White House staffer Stephen Miller
should go spend those dateless nights watching Star Trek https://twitter.com/dabeard/status/892963465257783328
rather than trying to play with the American economy like its a game of Dungeons and Dragons and immigration policy is a pair of 10-sided dice. Reports are that Stephen Miller was distraught and in tears hearing that Chewbacca passed away but cheered up quickly when he found out it was actually only a human (actor Peter Mayhew) that died.
๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐
20 Country
House 30-1
Owner: Shields
Jr., Mrs. J. V., McFadden, Jr
Trainer: Bill
Mott
Jockey: Flavien
Prat
Sire : Lookin
at Lucky $20,000
Dam: Quake Lake
by War Chant
Race Record:
5:1-2-0
CSI Figures:
102-100-99
The owner/breeder of Country House was the
late Joseph V (Jerry) Shields Jr., a Georgetown graduate who made money on Wall
Street. Shields was a long time owner of some very good racemares, Country
House represents the first time having a horse run in the Derby. His wife Maury and nephew Guinness (great
name) McFadden has taken over the mantle of ownership after the October 2018
passing of Mr. Shields. Don’t expect to
see Country House in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby – Country House
usually gets away slowly and then saves his running for the stretch. Unfortunately, there is no Trakus data for
CH’s last 3 races but while running 5 wide,4 wide, and 5 wide, respectively, on
the track would add several lengths to a race – ultimately showing that CH ran
faster than its placing. Despite this
fact, CH only has 1 win to show for its efforts. As we noted, single win Derby entrants don’t
fare as well as those that have had their picture taken more often. It is possible that this one will pick up some
pieces and is likely to finish in top half of field but doesn’t appear to be
one that will threaten the winner.
๐๐๐
๐๐๐
21 Bodexpress
30-1
Owner: Top
Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred
Trainer: Gustavo
DelGado
Jockey: Chris
Landeros
Sire : Bodemeister
$25,000
Dam: Pied a
Terre (City Zip)
Race Record: 5:0-3-0
CSI Figures: 84-104-98
Omaha Beach’s
defection due to an entrapped epiglottis allows Bodexpress to move from the
Also Eligible list to the starting gate.
Bodexpress in 5 tries has not won a race. Maidens since 1937 have been less successful
than a Microsoft Zune – 0 wins in 11 tries and median finish place of 14th. Although, there have been 3 maidens that
have won the Derby, Brokers Tip (1933), Sir Barton (1919) and Buchanan (1884),
it will not happen in 2019. Won the Road
to the Derby points to get into this position with a 2nd place
finish in the Florida Derby as a 71-1 shot. Hard pass.
๐
๐
Wet Track Impact:
These will take a step up on wet track:
- War of Will
- Improbable
- Plus Que Parfait
These will take a step back on wet track:
- Long Range Toddy
- Bodexpress
- Gray Magician
The Locks Bets are:
$40 Win #8
Tacitus = $40
$1 Exacta All
over #8 Tacitus = $18
$1 Exacta #8 over All = $18
$1 Exacta #8 over All = $18
$5WP #2 Tax =
$10
$1 Exacta: #2, #5, #8, #16, #19 over #2, #5, #8, #16,
#19, #14, #15 = $30
$1 Trifecta Box: #2, #5, #8, #16, #19 = $60
Total =
$176
ๆฅๆฌ่ชใง：
ใฑใณใฟใใญใผใใผใใผ ใฎไบๆณ ๐
◎ 8 ใฟใทใใฅใน ๏ผ-1
◯ 2 ใฟใใฏใน ๏ผ๏ผ-1
▲ 5 ใคใณใใญใใใซ 5-1
△ 19 ในใใณใชใ 30-1
△ 15 ใในใฟใผใใงใณใตใผ 50-1
Kentucky Oaks
◎ 14 Restless Rider 6-1
○ 4 Bellafina 2-1
▲ 10 Champagne Anyone 6-1
△ 5 Flor de La Mar 20-1 (dry track) // 1 Out for a Spin 15-1 (wet track)
◎ 14 Restless Rider 6-1
○ 4 Bellafina 2-1
▲ 10 Champagne Anyone 6-1
△ 5 Flor de La Mar 20-1 (dry track) // 1 Out for a Spin 15-1 (wet track)
2000 Guineas – first leg of the English Triple Crown
◎ 7 Kick On 20-1
○ 16 Scardu 7-1
▲ 18 Ten Sovereigns 10/3
△ 1 Advertise 8-1△ 15 Shine So Bright 20-1
◎ 7 Kick On 20-1
○ 16 Scardu 7-1
▲ 18 Ten Sovereigns 10/3
△ 1 Advertise 8-1△ 15 Shine So Bright 20-1
[1] If
this horse inexplicably wins the Locks will wear a Pink Tom
Brady Women’s size medium jersey on next air flight – currently scheduled for
Hong Kong late May.
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