Instead of watching the Derby unfold in front of 140,000
people this first Saturday of May – we all are doing our part to support the
health and safety of our neighbors and those heroically caring for us – and
will stay at home to watch the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday of
September. We all pray and keep in our
thoughts those directly impacted by the ravages of the Covid-19 virus, those
that have been displaced economically by this crisis, and those struggling
through the stress and the arrows of inequality. Although the Locks have interlaced political
references into this analysis in prior years – going to avoid that this go
around as the country has never been so divided and hoping that the Kentucky
Derby can be a respite not only away from the pandemic but from what has
divided us. But to note that we are all on this planet together and we all
should expect civility, equality and compassion toward our fellow citizen in
this time of turmoil.
Now…before getting into the analysis for the 146th
running of the Kentucky Derby lets look into the last dozen Derby Locks:
2019: Tacitus – placed 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible – 3rd – 7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing Line --
2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1
2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd – 11.70 -1
2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1
Buoyed by these results,
the Locks are going to continue with the same strategy looking at Winners,
Runners and Conformers:
Winners: Horses
that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not
run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking
for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers:
Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is
important in determining the winner of the Kentucky Derby... on average since
1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and
has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there
was only Giacamo that had come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that
took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming
in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who
came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90:1). Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins
is not in the Locks winning strategy – Honor A.P., NY Traffic, Winning
Impression, Attachment Rate, Necker Island, Mr. Big News, Money Moves, King
Guillermo, Major Fed, Enforceable, Max Player, Finnick the Fierce are all
winners of only 1 or 2 races. ) To note
– that this year there are 12 that fit this group whereas in the last 8 years
there have been an average of 8+ while the thinking is that given a 4 month
delay there would be more opportunities for the field to win but actually given
that there was essentially a racing hiatus from mid-March until June and the fact
that the additional 4 months has added time for some talented horses to be put
on the sidelines due to injury such as Charlton, Nadal, Maxfield (likely would
have been the Lock if stayed on the trail, Art Collector, and Caracaro.
Runners
As a student of the late
Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace
makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather
of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that
there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died
young from a diet that didn’t include anything but 2 liter Cokes, Hostess
Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race
unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby
will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze
splits and positions at those splits.
From 1993-2013, average
position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace,
3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.
During that same period,
the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either
1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place,
respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire
winner and no others that won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after
the first call.
However, the last 6 years, we have seen speedier
horses prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile:
1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.
But looking to fill your
exotics since 2010,
-
2nd
place horses have been (on average) ½
mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8.5 lengths, 1 mile, 4 lengths off the lead.
-
3rd
place horses: ½ mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3
lengths off the lead.
It doesn’t appear that
that there are any horses in the race that are not able to be rated at all –
but do have Authentic and NY Traffic followed by Honor AP, King Guillermo,
Money Moves, Storm the Court and Tiz the Law that will want to be close to the
lead. The expectation - without the cheap speed/rabbit - is that there will be
a moderate pace (47+,1:11+). As such it
appears that one of these early/presser types would be the Derby winner.
Noted above since 2000 closers
have helped fill the exacta/trifecta spot and some of these are box-car bombs:
Lookin at Lee (33-1), Commanding Curve (38-1), Golden Soul (35-1), Dullahan
(12-1), Denis of Cork (27-1), Stepenwolfer (16-1) –even with a moderate pace – need to keep an
eye on closers in this field like to Max Player, South Bend, Enforceable, Mr.
Big News, Sole Volante to fill out your exacta and trifecta tickets.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys history.
Any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a
half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. Drinking Cossack vodka and
YooHoo Black Russians – apparently - is not a substitute for studying and when
they didn’t include how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks
mercifully withdrew from the class.
The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real
interesting tidbits for those that don’t know already -- the Kentucky Derby was
originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of
General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition
fame. Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to
satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather
Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby
(which dates back to 1780) fascinating. As well he discovered the French
pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky,
he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May
17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
The Locks does like to
look at history when betting the Derby as there is 145 years of data already
accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and
history to consider when betting:
Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last 23 years have
been quite telling-- only 3 horses with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses
were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who
won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby favorite and winner
despite a sub-100 CSI. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just
100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in
2003 at 13-1. The other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a
last race CSI of 105.85.
In the same 23 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the
Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of
their final two prep races. This year, only the following do not have 100+ Brisnet
figs in their last 2 races: Enforceable, Major Fed, Storm the Court, Attachment
Rate, Finnick the Fierce, Mr. Big News, Necker Island, Winning Impression, Sole
Volante.
Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 9 out of
the last 16 and 5 out of the last 9 Derby winners being owned by the same people
that bred them. In the 2020 Kentucky
Derby, Major Fed is the only homebred.
Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y
& Z have not been very successful with a record of 10 wins out of 194
starters (5.15%). King Guillermo and Enforceable are looking to buck the trend.
Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a
10.90% clip – Authentic, Attachment Rate, Winning Impression.
Tiz the Law (NY), NY Traffic (NY), Thousand Words (FL), and
Attachment Rate (FL) are the only non-Kentucky breds Derby starters. There have been 22 other NY-breds to run in
the Derby with only Funny Cide (2003) winning the Derby – in 2018 NY-bred
Audible hit the board. Florida has only
bred 6 Derby winners including Silver Charm in 1997 and Triple Crown winner
Affirmed. But note 5 Florida-breds have hit the board in the last 16 years.
Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Parx
(NY Traffic, Max Player), Fair Grounds (Major Fed), Indiana Grand (Finnick the
Fierce), or Oaklawn Park (Winning Impression).
Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their
first race) on either their first or second start including 16 out of the last
19 Derby winners. These entries took
longer to break their maidens: Winning Impression (3rd), Attachment
Rate (3rd), Enforceable (4th), Mr. Big News (4th),
8 out of the last 9 Derby winners have come into the race
off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Tiz the Law (Travers),
Authentic (Haskell), Thousand Words (Shared Belief).
In 2019 the streak of favorites winning the Derby ended
after being run to 6 which was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby
history. This comes after a period from
1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once.
Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th
in the final prep race before the Derby, Winning Impression (7th
Ellis Park Derby), Finnick the Fierce (7th Blue Grass Stakes), Sole
Volante (6th Belmont Stakes), Mr. Big News (6th, Blue Grass
Stakes) have had clunkers in their last race.
Since 1979, only 2 Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart
Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012, Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden
by jockeys riding in their first Derby mount.
Enforceable, Major Fed, King Guillermo, Sole Volante all have Derby
rookie jockeys.
Since 1949, there have been 5 morning line odds-on
favorites (less than 1-1), of these 5 only Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle
Slew (1977) have won the Derby, the other 3 (Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure and
Nashua) all came in 2nd.
1
Finnick the Fierce 50-1
Owner: Arnaldo Monge & Rey Hernandez
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Sire : Dialed In
Dam: Southern Classic by Southern Image
Race Record: 9:2-1-2
CSI Figures: 101-102-94
Finnick the Fierce is owned by veterinarian
Arnaldo Monge and FtF’s trainer Rey Hernandez.
Although the resume doesn’t look like one of a Derby winner – there is
one thing about FtF that no other Derby entrant can say --- is that FtF beat
Tiz the Law. The one-eyed Finnick the
Fierce was named for his attitude and by his breeder in hopes that future
owners would potentially keep the name and thus avoid being named something
with reference to the one-eye. Besides
speed figures being significantly lower than the top contenders, having only
crossed the wire first on one occasion and that was always back in June 2019,
FtF’s chances may be doomed by its post position --- since 1963, only Ferdinand
in 1986 have one springing from the rail.
Locks Verdict: Pass ππ SCRATCHED
2 Max Player 30-1
Owner: George E Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Sire : Honor Code $30,000
Dam: Fools in Love by Not for Love
Race Record: 5:2-1-2
CSI Figures: 103-96-101
Max Player is owned by George E Hall, a Merchant Marine
Acadmey grad who made his money as a Manhattan-based money manager also is co-owned
by SportBLX a sport ownership platform.
Max Player is new to the Steve Asmussen barn as all other starts were by
a leading NY trainer, Linda Rice. Has
had a good work on the Churchill Downs oval and has had 3 9 furlong+ races to
get fit for this race. Will be one of
those coming on down the stretch.
Locks Verdict: Use
in deep exotics.
3
Enforceable 30-1
Owner: John C Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Sire : Tapit $200,000
Dam: Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union)
Race Record: 10:2-2-2
CSI Figures:99-99-96
Enforceable is owned by John Oxley who made his money in
oil and as a 5 goal polo player (the
polo equivalent of being a scratch golfer). Oxley has campaigned 7 horses that
have made it to the Derby including Monarchos who won the blanket of roses in
2001. He also had a horse called
Prospective in 2012 that reminds me a lot of Enforceable – a deep closer that
will have no trouble with the distance.
Unfortunately, Prospective had a terrible trip in the Derby – being
bumped, clipped heels, stumbled and bumped again (sounds like the NYC subway
pre-Covid-19) before fading to 18th.
I feel Enforceable will be a contender to be the deep closer to hit the
board at a big price. Enforceable ran
the fastest last 1/8th in the Blue Grass, has faced large field
races in 5 of last 6 starts, is the full-brother to 2016 Lock and 4th
in the Derby Mohaymen and a half-brother to Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Winner, New
Year’s Day. If Derby virgin Adam Beschizza can stay out of trouble Enforceable will
hit the board and possibly pull off the upset.
Locks Verdict: Must
need in exotics
4
Storm the Court 50-1
Owner: David A Bernsen LLC
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Sire : Court Vision $3,500
Dam: My Tejana Storm by Tejano Run
Race Record: 9:2-1-3
CSI Figures: 94-108-110
Storm the Court’s owner is David Bernsen who runs global
computer wagering business and also owns Jimmy Cagney’s San Diego house that where
he summered to attend the DelMar meet – for those that don’t know Jimmy Cagney
is 1930s version of Joe Pesci – for those that don’t know Joe Pesci – sorry I
can’t help you. Storm the Court won the
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile which only 2 horses Nyquist (2016) and Street Sense
(2007) have earned the BC Juvenile/Derby Double. However, from Street Sense’s win in the Derby
after 13 others failed to pull off the Double, the Breeder’s Cup winner has had
an average finish of less than 4th in the Derby but a 4th
place or even a top half of the field place doesn’t seem likely – Storm the
Court’s Brisnet speed and late pace figures point to the horse fading in the
last 1/8th.
Locks Verdict: Pass
5 Major Fed 50-1
Owner: Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC
Trainer: Gregory Foley
Jockey: Jason Graham
Sire : Ghostzapper $85,000
Dam: Bobby’s Babe by Smart Strike
Race Record: 6:1-2-1
CSI Figures: xx-84-105
Major Fed is owned by a group based in Madison, Wisconsin
thus the cardinal red and white and big “W” on silks. Trainer Greg Foley will saddle his first
Derby trainee. Although Major Fed loves Churchill Downs in the mornings – the
afternoons have been a different story – Major Fed has finishes of 3rd
8 lengths back and 10th 15 lengths back under the Twin Spires. Major Fed is a better horse than its 1 win
record shows – the horse always takes the overland route and the horses
performances look far better when looking at Trakus data due to the added
distance in racing wide. Perhaps
springing from the 5 hole can help – the 5 hole is arguably the best post
position with the best average finish and being the post position yielding the
most Derby wins. Overall speed figs doesn’t put this one up with the major
contenders but expect Major Fed to finish in the top half of the field.
Locks Verdict: Consider in deep exotic plays πππ
6 King
Guillermo 20-1
Owner: Victoria’s Ranch
Trainer: Juan Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Sire : Uncle Mo $125,000
Dam: Slow Sand by Dixieland Band
Race Record: 5:2-1-1
CSI Figures: 106-101-103
King Guillermo’s owner Victor Martinez was a 5-time MLB
all-star and now owns 2400 acre cattle operation in Florida. V-Mart’s enthusiasm with the racing can be
seen watching his reaction to KG’s 49-1 victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. KG has a
solid pedigree and some lightening works at Churchill Downs and has done
nothing wrong in his races since its maiden. Derby rookie won’t have an easy
task of putting KG in a stalking position as several others will be vying to be
just 2-3 lengths off the pace. Lot of wise guys like KG but like the Cleveland
Indians that V-Mart played for 7+ seasons – KG is good but won’t win the big
one.
Locks Verdict: Off
the board πππ SCRATCH
7
Money Moves 30-1
Owner: Robert
LaPenta and Bortolazzo Stable LLC
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sire : Candy Ride
$100,000
Dam: Citizen Advocate by Proud Citizen
Race Record: 3:2-1-0
CSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 102-103-100
Money Moves will be Robert LaPenta’s 10th Derby
horse. LaPenta, life has come full circle - from buying into his first race
horse with then Louisville basketball coach, Rick Pitino in 1998 to 22 year
later where LaPenta is the person who was instrumental in bringing Pitino to
coach at LaPenta’s alma mater, Iona College. LaPenta philanthropy is shown in
that the business school at Iona is named after LaPenta. The other partner in Money Moves is Gerald
Bortolazzo who is a retired physician.
Money Moves was a nearly $1million purchase last year and is a bobbled
start away from having a perfect 3 for 3 record. Actually the July 25th
race at Saratoga is sneaky good – MM was the only 3yo in a field of mostly
stakes running older horses who had won an average of $377,000 in purse money.
Consider this – since 1999 – there have been 10 Derby starters that came in
with 3 starts – 2 won and another came in 3rd with an average
finishing place of 6th.
Locks Verdict: Not
only in my exotics but in my verticals (ie could win).
8
South Bend 50-1
Owner: Gary Barber, Wachtel Stables, Peter Deutsch and
Pantofel Stables
Trainer: William Mott
Jockey: Tyler Gafflione
Sire : Algorithms
Dam: Sandra’s Rose by Old Trieste
Race Record: 12: 3-3-2
CSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 93-110-99
Before Gary Barber et al bought South Bend privately before
the Derby, the horse was owned by Kevin Plank’s (Under Armour) Sagamore
Farm. The name is a nod to Notre Dame a
school outfitted by Under Armour. After
winning the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last year with good speed
figs and a solid field, would have expected a different path to the Kentucky
than 4 turf stakes races at Gulfstream Park and the Ohio Derby but this is not
a year to expect the expected. South Bend gets the boost in the move to the
Mott barn and improving efforts on return to the dirt. The solid effort in the
Travers, the fondness of Churchill Downs puts this one in the field. Although a win would be as unlikely as Rudy
scoring a touchdown against USC, hitting the board would be less surprising.
Locks Verdict:
Consider in in some deep exotics.
9 Mr. Big News 50-1
Owner: Allied Family
Stables
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Sire : Giant’s
Causeway
Dam: Unappeased by Galileo
Race Record: 7:2-1-0
CSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 94-103-95
Owner Chester Thomas races under the nom-de-race Allied
Racing. He made his money in the Western Kentucky coal mines and has owned
several race horses over the years but never a graded stakes winner until By My
Standards last year won the Louisiana Derby and competed in the Kentucky Derby.
By My Standards who may very well run in the Breeders Cup Classic this year and
his stablemate, Mr. Money have rewarded Chester Thomas to became $1m earners.
Thomas’ next best horse before those 2 was a race mare named Viam Inveniam –
meaning ‘find the way’ in Latin. The phrase actually is attributed to Hannibal
as it was his response to his generals that told him they couldn’t pass through
the Alps with elephants --- Hannibal responded Aut viam inveniam aut faciam –
‘find a way or make one’. Mr. Big News has found its way in the Derby field somehow
with a curriculum vitae that would not normally get you into the Derby – 6th
in the Blue Grass and 5th in the Risen Star but got the shot to run
in a stakes at Oaklawn that normally is on Derby day but got switched up due to
Covid-19 and won that to give this one promise. Although not predicted to rain this one may
get a boost on a wet track and looking at the pedigree seems would get a boost
if the Derby was by some impossible chance was switched to the turf.
Locks Verdict: Off the board ππ
10 Thousand Words 15-1
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Sire : Pioneerof the Nile
Dam: Pomeroys Pistol by Pomeroy
Race Record: 7:4-1-0
CSI Figures: 73-105-103
Thousand Words is owned by Dennis Albaugh and a guy who
married well, Jason Loutsch who’s job is to manage his father-in-law’s racing
stable. Albaugh made his money in agrochemicals
and is known in some circles as the King of Crop Protection – it’s a big
business as he was Iowa’s first billionaire. Consider the fact that in the 10 years
that Bob Baffert has entered multiple entrants that the median finish of his
best finishing horse is 2nd – however as this one appears to be
Baffert’s 5th string and Baffert’s other entry, Authentic is his 3rd
string – a runner up finish is less likely. “He’s one of these horses that is
just steady. He’s just a steady kind of horse.” Baffert’s comments seems to be
the equivalent of “She’s nice”
Locks Verdict: Off
the board.
11 Necker
Island 50-1
Owner: Raymond
Daniels & Wayne Scherr
Trainer: Chris Hartman
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Sire : Hard Spun $40,000
Dam: Jenny’s Rocket by Mr Greeley
Race Record: 10:2-0-3
CSI Figures: 99-104-xx
Necker Island is named for the private island and resort in
the BVIs owned by Virgin Group chairman Richard Branson. Necker Island owners picked up this Derby
hopeful in June off a $100,000 claim from previous owner Sagamore Farm – making
it 2 Derby entries that as of the middle of June were owned by Kevin Plank. One of the owners Greg Harbut is a
multigenerational horseman whose great-grandfather, Will Harbut was associated
with Man O’War and runs a syndicate under his great-grandfather’s name to bring
thoroughbred ownership to previously underrepresented groups. This is something
we should see more of in the sport. Although
Necker Island hasn’t had his picture taken since last year – there are some
positives to consider: Necker Island
will get a boost if there by chance is a wet track – back in November 2019 won
the race prior to Tiz the Law’s Kentucky Jockey Club – Necker Island ran faster
than Tiz the Law did in his race. Has won twice at Churchill Downs. Showing
some really good works coming into the Derby.
Locks Verdict: Top
half of the field.
12
Sole Volante 30-1
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Sire : Karakontie $10,000
Dam: Light Blow by Kingmambo
Race Record: 7:4-1-1
CSI Figures: 96-109-85
When I saw the name Sole Volante which means ‘flying sun’ I
was certain that the owner would be Ron Lombardi aka Mr Amore who had 2018
Derby entrant Firenze Fire. But actually
Sole Volante is owned by Dean Reeves and Sole Volante is his third Derby
starter after entering Mucho Macho Man (2011, 3rd) and Tax (2019, 14th). Dean and his wife Patti are Georgia natives
and find inspiration in faith and like the passage“The horse is made ready
for the day of battle, but victory rests with the Lord.” Proverbs 21:31. Sole Volante may need divine intervention to
win the Derby despite some real talent.
Sole Volante was my pick to upset Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes but did
not gain any ground and was a disappointing 6th. Sole Volante will
likely be a stakes winner going a mile on turf, unfortunately, the Derby is run
on dirt at 1 ¼ miles.
Locks Verdict: Finish
in top half of field
13 Attachment Rate 50-1
Owner: Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Sire : Hard Spun
$40,000
Dam: Aristra by Afleet Alex
Race Record: 8:1-3-1
CSI Figures: 95-96-xx
Co-owner Jim Bakke is the president of Sub-Zero,the
refrigerator company and the other co-owner Gerald Isbister is from Calgary,
Canada so it will not be shock if Attachment Rate is going to be cold on tote
board. At the beginning of February the
Locks predicted 20 or so 3yos that would end up in the Derby and Attachment
Rate was actually at the top of the list despite being still a maiden -this one
caught the Locks eye with a fast closing 2nd in a maiden race at
Gulfstream Park in January while going off at 50-1. Of those 20+ predicted
3yos, actually 7 are in the Derby field with a couple of others such as
Caracaro and Maxfield that should certainly be here but was sidelined along the
way. The Nostradamus in me would love to have this horse win the Derby but feel
this one may be a step slower and without sufficient late kick to make the top
3.
Locks Verdict: Off the board
14
Winning Impression 50-1
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.
Sire : Paynter
$10,000
Dam: Unbridled’s Sonya by Unbridled’s Song
Race Record: 9:1-1-2
CSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 96-97-xx
Winning Impression is the beneficiary of defections to get
into the Derby field as WI is an unlikely entry. In 3 stakes races WI has lost
by a combined 33+ lengths. However, the
trip notes on Winning Impression’s PPs have more difficulties than a Bronte
novel. The prime reason owners are
running in the Derby is due to trainer Dallas Stewart’s ability (and feathered
‘80s hairstyle a la Parker Stevenson) to get the unlikeliest of horses to hit
the board in the Derby as was the case with Golden Soul (35-1) in 2013 and
Commanding Curve (38-1) in 2014. But
Winning Impression’s resume doesn’t even look up to par with those 2 longshots.
Verdict: Tom Brady Women’s
Size Medium Jersey Locks Pick[1]
15 NY
Traffic 20-1
Owner: John Fanelli; Cash is King LLC
Trainer: S A Joseph
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Sire : Cross Traffic $15,000
Dam: Mamie Reilly by Graeme Hall
Race Record: 9:2-3-2
CSI Figures: 97-99-108
NY Traffic owner aptly runs a car dealership in New Jersey.
Interesting that a lot of New York traffic is caused by those with those
driving cars with those dreaded yellow Garden State license plates. Invariably if you see someone taking a right
on red or driving the wrong way on a one way in Manhattan - it is New Jersey
driver behind the wheel. NY Traffic has
not done anything wrong since entering Saffie A Joseph’s barn in January. Saffie Joseph is a native of Barbados and the
hair game down – I am not talking about the Covid shag but he doth have flowing
locks. NY Traffic has held tight with
some good horses – forced monster Maxfield to give everything he had to beat NY
Traffic in last few strides in the Matt Wynn, nearly caught Authentic in the
Haskell, solid 2nd in the Louisiana Derby when fractions made it so
the leader wasn’t going to get caught.
With running style of wanting to be close to the lead – NY Traffic’s
fortunes are going to be tied to getting a good trip – springing from post 15
will need to use energy to clear several horses to get into good position
before the clubhouse turn.
Locks Verdict: Use in exotics πππ
16
Honor A.P. 5-1
Owner: CRK Stable
LLC
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Sire : Honor Code $30,000
Dam: Hollywood Story by Wild Rush
Race Record: 5:2-3-0
CSI Figures:99-99-102
Honor A.P. is owned by Lee and Susan Searing’s CRK Stable
LLC, the stable named after their 3 adult children–Christina, Richard and
Katherine. CRK Stables silks are not
purple and gold by any accident – its in tribute to Lee Searing’s love of the
Los Angeles Lakers and names of his horses have shown that love of basketball
in Midcourt, Courtside, Draft Pick and also for his favorite Laker in Kobe’s
Back, Lady Mamba, and Magnificent GiGi. It
still is incredible to believe that Kobe is gone and in such a brutal year –
we’ve lost among many others 2 of the most influential sports figures in my
life, Coach John Thompson, Jr. who transcended the game of basketball and Tom
Seaver the greatest Met of all time.
Rest In Peace. As to the Derby and Honor A.P., consider that the only
Derby winning combo in this field is Sheriffs and Smith who teamed up on
unlikely Derby winner Giacomo in 2005.
Also consider that Mike Smith hopped off a mount on Authentic to
continue to ride Honor A.P. Also
consider the $850k price tag as a yearling and the fact that Honor A.P. is
beautiful horse. On the track, Honor A.P. hasn’t done much wrong – lot of
excuses for the surprising 2nd at Del Mar in his last (cut back in distance,
slow pace) – win over Authentic. The
Locks overall concern with Honor A.P. as well as Baffert’s horses is that they
don’t seem as fast as Tiz the Law. Note
that 2 of Honor A.P.’s races were on the same day as races for older horses – although
less than perfect – in extrapolated times Honor A.P. would be several lengths (8+)
behind a group of less than inspiring older horses. Also note that Uncle Chuck
what was considered one of the best of the west coast came to Saratoga for the
Travers and lost by 11 lengths. The
Locks have been wrong in dismissing west coast horses (ie, I’ll Have Another,
2012) so will keep this in the mix.
Locks Verdict: Use in exotics. ππππ
17 Tiz the Law 3-5
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Sire : Constitution
$40,000
Dam: Tizfiz by Tiznow
Race Record: 7:6-0-1
CSI Figures: 96-101-109
Owned by the same Saratoga-based group that campaigned,
Funny Cide. The Locks has realized this
year that life is too short to not to make things easier in life – the Locks
historically has looked to beat the favorite.
Went 0-fer in trying to beat Frankel. Went 0-fer trying to beat American
Pharoah (had wrong horse in the Travers). This summer in wagering the Saratoga
meet – I didn’t look at morning line odds in making picks – this forced me not
to avoid betting the favorite and bet the most likely winners. Although the Locks ROI was about the same but
cashed significantly more tickets. So in
analyzing the Derby – I went in not trying to beat Tiz the Law but to find the
most likely winner and given the implied probability of 3/5 odds is that Tiz
the Law has a 62.5% chance of winning.
I’d be willing to take that probability.
Consider the following:
- - Closing quarter in the 1 1/4 m Travers was more
than .6s faster than any other foe.
- - Fastest closing 1/8th in the Belmont
Stakes near 12 flat.
- - Fastest closing 1/8th in the Florida
Derby by more than .35s
- - Won 6 races by a combined 25 lengths.
- - Top Beyer speed fig, Top Brisnet speed fig, Top
Brisnet Late pace fig (9f+), Top Brisnet Prime Power.
- - Like no other Derby horse in recent memory –
has shown can win at the 10f distance
- - Does not necessarily need for perfect trip to
win - had to slam on brakes in the Holy Bull, regathered momentum and won by
open lengths.
- - Exercise rider and jockey gush over Tiz the
Laws stamina and turn-of-foot and it is showing in the mornings – 4 out the
last 5 5f works have been sub-1 minute.
The only case that can be made that would not point to a
Tiz the Law victory would be if the track came up sloppy OR a horrendous trip
– the only race that Tiz the Law lost was on a sloppy Churchill
Downs track in the Ky Jockey Club Stakes
- Tiz the Law was compromised by a slightly slow start that
forced Tiz the Law to be bottled up behind an 84-1 horse so Tiz the Law wasn’t
able to dictate the race.
This is mitigated by that the weather forecast is for a dry
track but trip and traffic is always a factor in the Derby just ask many a Hall
of Fame jockeys who were handed the keys to a Ferrari and only to be stuck
behind a Pinto or slammed in the side by a Dodge Dart.
Locks Verdict: My mind is at ease I can say it -- a 3-5 morning line horse Tiz the Lock. πππππ
18
Authentic 8-1
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket
Stables and Starlight Racing
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sire : Into Mischief $175,000
Dam: Flawless by Mr Greely
Race Record: 5:4-1-0
CSI Figures: 101-96-108
Authentic is Bob Baffert’s 3rd string Derby
hopeful – Charlatan and Nadal who both won divisions of the Arkansas Derby were
considered the best 3yos in Baffert’s barn and arguably the best 3yos overall. Do you know who Jordan Ta’amu, Logan
Woodside, Tim Boyle, CJ Beathard are?
Thought so ,these are the 3rd string QBs for the teams that
were in the conference championships last season. But for a 3rd stringer,
Authentic has done pretty good – 4 for 5 including victories in 3 graded stakes
including the G1 Haskell. Interestingly,
Mike Smith who rode Authentic in the Haskell has chosen to ride Honor A.P. in
the Derby but Baffert was able to secure the services of HoF and 2 time Kentucky Derby winning John
Velazquez. But not sure if Authentic is Kurt Warner, famous 3rd
stringer, good. Despite having a gaudy
record, working lights-out at DelMar, high Beyer and Brisnet speed-figs,
multiple Kentucky Derby winning jockey and trainer, Authentic appears not to be
a 10f horse especially given Authentic’s running style and the several other
horses that will want to be close or near the lead.
Locks Verdict: Will not outrun its odds. πππ
The Locks Bets are:
$1 exacta 17,16, 7 over 17,16,7, 15, 12,
3, 2 = $18
$1 trifecta 17,16, 7 over 17,16,7, 15, 12,
3,2 over 17,16,7, 15, 12, 3,2 = $90
$5 Oaks/Derby Double = 4,1 with 17,7 = $20
$1 exacta 17,7 over all = $34
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[1] If this horse wins, given the times, in lieu of
wearing said fashion item on my next international flight – I will wear on my
next visit to the supermarket while wearing a **mask**. For the anti-maskers
out there (there seems to be a high correlation between anti-maskers and
steroid users), get a life! Its not a political statement to wear or not wear one
– its just common courtesy to your fellow citizen. It doesn’t violate your
Constitutional rights to wear one – the guy that has worked at the supermarket
all the way through the pandemic and making less than $10/hr doesn’t need you
coming in there causing a ruckus. I know your Gold’s Gym may be closed but take
your rage and unmasked face somewhere else.
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