2012 Preakness Stakes - The Locks

The 137th Running of the Preakness Stakes.....the Second Leg of the Triple Crown... 

Typically horses of the caliber that run in Triple Crown races get at the very least 3 weeks to recover from a race....but as to make the Triple Crown a challenge that has not been achieved since the days of Mork and Mindy (Affirmed's Triple Crown victory in 1978), there is only a 2 week gap between the Derby and the Preakness.

The Preakness is really the "peoples race" and is viewed as an excuse for one crazy party.  In the days of yore - I've witnessed debauchery that would even make Charlie Sheen blush.   The good folks over at Maryland Jockey Club a few years back tried to somewhat contain this mayhem by banning coolers from the infield.  Term "cooler" here is somewhat loosely defined...circa 1992, in doing an inventory of my top 3 possessions, you'd see a red Coleman Cooler placed on that list...however, that cooler wouldn't make it Pimlico each year because its holding capacity was limited, to say, one case of beer...a real Preakness cooler truly would be a plastic garbage bin that would have a capacity of about 7 or 8 cases and a few handles of Jim Beam.   By banning these "coolers" the B'more crowd responded by not showing up...there was a 30% drop in attendance.   So....these marketing geniuses at Maryland racing sought again to embrace the party crowd.  

They've done so, in part, by naming a mascot in 2011 called "Kegasus" -'part horse, part party animal' and have this year given Kegasus, a sidekick, called Uni-Carl, who is some dude with a baseball hat with a spike sticking out of it.  One of @unicarl 's recent tweets was "Stoked for big day of thrills, chills and refills" gives you a flavor of the dude-ism of UniCarl.  The party atmosphere is aided by "ClubMug" which allows to drink from a "bottomless beer mug" and InfieldFest featuring musical acts such as Maroon 5 and Wiz Khalifa.  Pittsburgh's own Wiz Khalifa is best known of being a proponent of his own version of "green technology".  And they must have thrown Maroon 5, a band that pumps out pop drivel including to my dismay the song "Moves Like Jagger", in there because they will play anywhere there is already a captive audience.   That "Moves Like Jagger" song was a real blow to my own party-moves as I used to be the king of the "Jagger" during the 1998-2002 wedding circuit.  Now, if I attempted to "Jagger" it up when the first licks of "Beast of Burden" start up then would certainly get a "Man you do the 'Moves Like Jagger'!" from the uninformed - as a result I've retired my Jagger-esque sashay, pouty lips, arms behind back duck walk....thanks Adam Levine, ya' fool!

With my "Jagger" receiving Social Security checks and my red cooler in red cooler heaven - I don't really worry about the antics of the infield and put my attentions to the race...which I think will be very interesting in how it plays out -- feel there will be a lot of thinking by the horsemen (trainers and jocks) on how to approach the race.

In the Preakness I've historically concentrated on the same factors that weighed in in picking a Derby winner but do they work this year ?? Lets see....

• Horses that haven’t done much wrong....looking for horses that have not run out of the money and with at least 3 wins. Still want to see horses that have seen success at the track for the Preakness .

• Late pace....this race is going to be very interesting in how its run.  I think all of the other trainers and jockeys know that Bodemeister is the horse to beat in this race and the question is how close to Bode to stay during the race to win.  Let Bode run off like in the Kentucky Derby and then try to pick up the pieces later or try to stay close to Bode so he won't run away with the race.  Horses that were running the fastest at the end of the Derby...Went the Day Well and Union Rags didn't place because of bad trips and being too far back early on.   Less horses will mean less chance of a bad trip so a horse with late pace can still pick up pieces or should we really should be looking for horses with tactical speed to stay with Bode....that is the million $ question...

• History... Usually like to cite and rely on historic trends to assist in my handicapping - with the "People's Race" let's go more on feel than old stats.

• Fresh horse...There are a lot of good horses that didn’t make it to the gate for the Derby – Algorithims, FedBiz, —the Derby trail is brutal as such looking for the horse that didn’t run in the Derby and has relative fresh legs are worth a look.

So please see my horse-by-horse analysis and the Locks.....

# Horse / Sire  ML Odds

Owner, Trainer, and Jockey 

Last 3 Race Locks Speed Index

1 Tiger Walk

by Tale of the Cat 30-1  

Sagamore Farm

I. Correas/K. Desormeaux

99-91-98

Tiger Walk is a local horse and is familiar with the track as the colt trains here every day.   Tiger Walk only has 2 wins both down the road at Laurel and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux who used to keep his tack in Maryland.  But when colt has been over-matched when racing against the top competition.   


Locks Verdict:  Pass

2 Teeth of the Dog

by Bluegrass Cat 15-1

Jose Singer

M. Matz/J. Bravo

101-102-105

Teeth of the Dog sounds like the name of an album from Baltimore "progressive rock" band, Crack the Sky.  Crack the Sky made records in the '70s and '80s (think Spinal Tap's "Stonehedge") but are still considered legends in Baltimore.  I guess they haven't gotten the memo in Charm City that this band is unlistenable.  One guy that isn't busy at Hammerjacks watching these dinosaurs of rock is Michael Matz.  Michael Matz hasn't let Union Rags troubled trip and 7th place finish slow him down.   He brings Teeth of the Dog who is lightly raced with only a maiden win to Pimlico.   The nicely bred TotD did get a closing third in the Wood, unfortunately, Alpha and Gemologist poor showing the Derby doesn't flatter TotD but this is a horse on the improve and wouldn't be surprising if could capture an in the money finish.


Locks Verdict:  A place showing won't be a shock...

3 Pretension

by Bluegrass Cat   30-1

Kidwells Petite Stable

C. Grove/J. Santiago  

112-102-95
Here is another interesting horse coming in without racing the Derby as this is the only horse in the field to win on the track - actually the only horse that has raced on the track.  Popped off a field high Locks Speed Index figure of 112 in the win here.  Has won or came in 2nd in all races except in graded stakes races...unfortunately on its 2 tries in graded competition has been trounced  May press Bodemeister but will do so at own peril.  


Locks Verdict:  Likes the track versus lesser competition - possible piece of the pie.

4 Zetterholm

by Silver Train 20-1  

Winter Park Partner

R. Dutrow, Jr./J. Alvarado

109-101-88

One of the listed "Preakness Traditions" is a fly-over by a Stealth B-2 Bomber...you can really talk about Stealth as I am sure all but only a handful of the oblivious people in the in-field will actually see it.  Zetterholm also may be a bit stealth on everyone's radar but may actually have a real shot in the race.  After an inauspicious start to a career in Florida last year, Zetterholm in 2012 has 3 wins and 1 place finish in 4 tries...the 3 wins includes a stakes victory at Aqueduct on the day before the Wood Memorial at a time that would rival the Wood's winning time if extrapolated out (admittedly tough to match raw times).   WIll come from off the pace so and has been able to do so vs slow fractions and still be albe to win..so if Bodemeister can be pushed Zetterholm looks like a live bet.   

Locks Verdict:  Looks like a good horse to take a flyer on.

5 Went The Day Well

by Proud Citizen 6-1 

Team Valor Intl. & M. Ford

H.G. Motion/J. Velazquez

102-101-102

Graham Motion's trainee looked to be the horse moving the best at the end of the race in the Derby and proven by the last pace speed figures that BRIS produced on the horse.   WTDW could put in a late run like Animal Kingdom did last year.  Animal Kingdom, with Velazquez up, in the Preakness did just miss in catching the front running Shackleford. 

Locks Verdict:   May be too late to get the win but should pick up a piece.

6 Creative Cause

by Giant's Causeway 6-1

Heinz Stein man

M. Harrington/J. Rosario

102-101-109

Trakus is a service of using technology to provide an incredible amount of information about a thoroughbred race. Using tracking of each horse, system is able to give a virtual replay and show actual distances run.  Looking at the Kentucky Derby, Trakus data shows that Creative Cause ran a total of 29 feet longer than the 6,680 feet run by winner I’ll Have Another - this is not a shock since Creative Cause took the far turn and entered the stretch 7 or 8 wide.   Given that 1 length is 8.5 feet and that means that Creative Cause ran 3.4 lengths further than the winner.  Creative Cause lost by 3 lengths as such truly ran a faster race than the winner.  In comparing the data to Bodemeister, Creative Cause ran 70 feet longer or 8 lengths - so it appears that Creative Cause actually ran the best race in the Derby.  This actually is not a surprise given that ahead of the Derby we knew that Creative Cause had not yet run a bad race in the colt's career and possibly given better racing luck than I'll Have Another could have won the race.  With Creative Cause, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister putting in great races - it also shows that the West Coast actually is where the best horses were running this winter and spring. 


Locks Verdict:  Can't deny technology - CC is a good horse.

7 Bodemeister

by Empire Maker 8-5  

Zayat Stables & M. Moreno

B. Baffert/M. Smith

103-107-108

Bodemeister put in an effort in the Derby that was described as "courageous" "heroic" "gutsy" and this is for a horse that lost the race so there must be something there.  When I saw the first quarter of the Derby going :22 and change with Bodemeister on the lead - I said "Bode is done" but the colt kept on going...:45, 1:09, 1:35....and the horse was still in the lead!  Finally in the last 1/16th, the principals of physics started to take over and Bode started slowing down but still had enough to hold to 2nd.  Bodemeister will win the Preakness if the horse is fit and if the incredible performance put in the Derby hadn't taken too much out of the colt.  There is no other speed in the race like there was in the Derby - so Bode may be able to get away with more reasonable fractions and will have more left in the tank at the end of the race. 


Locks Verdict:  Horse to beat but won't pay you much

8 Daddy Nose Best

by Scat Daddy 12-1  

Cathy and Bob Zollars

S. Asmussen/J. Leparoux

This was my Derby horse and actually was very well positioned entering the stretch and started lay down a drive but got bumped mid stretch and then lost all energy and finished 10th.  Not sure if Daddy Nose Best was up to the task in the Derby and a slow workout on May 14th may suggest that the horse isn't going to be sharp.    There was a lot I liked in the Derby though and if runs his race could be a factor.


Locks Verdict:  Could be a factor - may not win but may need on bottom side of exotics.

9  I'll Have Another

by Flower Alley 5-2

J. Paul Redeem

D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez

105-101-100

The Derby winner was overlooked by the Locks mostly by the virtue of being a West Coast horse where in the recent past horses training in Cali haven't fared well coming East for the Derby.  I also thought I'll Have Another would have been too close to an expected hot pace.   But I'll Have Another prevailed to the delight of many who bet the horse because of a name in what everyone ends up saying while having a refreshing drink on a warm day.  I'll Have Another will factor in this race as the horse wants to win but will the Flower Alley colt be able to pass Bodemeister or hold off an onslaught of late runners? 


Locks Verdict:  I'll Have Another shot to get this one right.

10 Optimizer

by English Channel 30-1

Bluegrass Hall LLC

D. Lukas/J. Court

93-86-102

It's unfortunate that on Saturday, DW Lukas will kind of resemble what I'd look like if I showed up in the Pimlico Infield on Saturday....old guy trying to re-live the glory days.   DWL has had 3 winners here but won't get a 4th with Optimizer as the horse is in deep - has only 1 win in 10 career tries and has been well beaten in several top races. I knew when to hang up the crunk cup in the mid-90s too bad D. Wayne didn't get the same memo.

Locks Verdict: Pass

11 Cozzetti

by Cozzene 30-1

Albaugh Family Stables

D. Romansn/J. Lezcano

97-101-103

Don't need the Daily Racing Form to check on this horse chances in the race - just go to the weather channel. If its raining then this horse has a shot since the colt out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare has an open length win on the slop and then whizzed a :58+ bullet on the mud at Churchill Downs last week but on the dry track, as the weathermen predicts for Saturday, is 0fer in 6 tries and in those races wasn't really competitive.

Locks Verdict: Pass

Now for the Locks.....

$20 Win on Creative Cause....going with a horse that will be able to pay something out.

$1 Exacta Saver - All over Creative Cause

$2 Exacta CC, Bode, Zetterholm, I'll Have Another, Teeth of the Dog

$1 Trifecta....CC, Bode, Zetterholm/CC, Bode, Zetterholm, I'll Have Another, TotD/CC, Bode, IHA, Z, TotD,WtDW

Also the Japanese Oaks this weekend....the Locks there are:

◎ Midsummer Fair 3.2-1 ○Daiwa Zoom 22.5-1 ▲Verxina 2.7-1 △Ice Follies 24.0-1 Good Luck!