We know that on the first Saturday of May, you
can stand under the twin spires of Churchill Downs and look to your left and
will see racehorses line up, watch the starter raise his arm, hear a bell ring,
see gates pop open, followed by a calvary charge of 20 three year olds rushing
down the home stretch for the first time.
2 minutes, give or take a second or two, later the race will be over and
a horse, its trainer and its owner will be etched into history. This is one of the few certainties in life in a
very uncertain world.
Horse racing
is even more uncertain than the eco-political landscape we live in. Take for instance….last year I had a Derby
horse I loved from early in 2011, in Toby’s Corner fit all the criteria that I
liked and was going to get longer than 12-1 odds. But the weeks leading to the Derby it was
learned TC had a leg injury and would miss the Derby. I scrambled to find a new Derby horse and I
settled on ArchArchArch who had just won the Arkansas Derby. I bet heavy on the horse singled as well as
keyed in exotics. Given the rail
position, the horse injured its leg in the first few steps of the race but ran
on even with the jockey having his saddle slip all things ruining AAAs chances
of Derby success. Nothing seems
certain. Also consider the fact that the
pre-race Derby favorites in the last 3 years (I Want Revenge, Eskendeyera,
Uncle Mo) all were scratched before the race.
But to
provide more certainty, I am not changing how I’ve historically handicapped and
finding value plays in the Derby I concentrate on the following factors, the
Locks Winning Patterns:
· * Horses
that haven’t done much wrong....looking for horses that have not run out of the
money without good excuse and with at least 3 wins.
· * Late
pace....looking for horses that are still running with speed at the end of a
race.
· * History...Looking
for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Wins
Jesuit-educated
Vince Lombardi is famously quoted “Winning
isn’t everything, it’s the only thing...” I have to agree....winning in
Derby preps is important... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with
more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6
times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in
with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1.
Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been
20-1 (Animal Kingdom last year’s winner who came into the Derby with only 2
wins was 20.90 to 1). Optimizer comes into the race with only 1 win. Generally,
I try to avoid horses that have thrown in more than 1 clunker (worse than 3rd
place or close 4th place finish) except for initial race but this
year my Derby horse wouldn’t exactly fit that bill….read on.
Pace
I’ve noted
before that I am a student of Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping. In
pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is
important. Pace makes the race! To determine how the Derby will unfold you’ll
need to break out your past performances and analyze splits and positions at
those splits. The expectation this year
that there will be a quick pace to the Derby due to the fact that Triiniberg, a
speedy sprinter is entered. I expect the pace to be pushed because there are
enough horses that will want to be near the lead ...maybe we’ll see :46.2-
:47.0, 1:11, Horses expected to factor in the pace are Trinniberg, Hansen, Take
Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another followed by Gemologist and Bodemeister. This
will help those horses that want to come off the pace and the extent how fast
the horses run on the pace will determine how deep a closer can be and still
vie for the win. I feel however that one of the pace horses above will still be
in the mix at end maybe the class
horses such as Gemologist and Bodemeister.
History
I value history and many of you who have
read the Locks before know that I was only 1 class shy of being a History minor
at Georgetown. As we know what we
minored in college is an extremely important element of your personal fabric. Only if Professor Duncan (“No Flunkin’ Duncan”)
had a History of the American Presidency III.
Prof Duncan had kindly given me B’s in version I & II of that class
even though, on occasion, I chose to play Galaga while sipping 16oz Milwaukee
Bests at the University Center Pub rather than go to his class.
History hadn’t been too kind to Breeders Cup
Juvenile winner as well as those that have run the race. This year could certainly be different as last
year’s BC Juvenile is a key race – a key race is one that yields more than 1 or
2 subsequent winners – really the 2011 BC Juvenile is a super-key race – from
that race – 8 horses different horses have gone on to win graded stakes
winners. A total of 9 horses are in from
that race of those 8 horses are in the race plus Optimizer who is graded stakes
placed.
I do like to look at history when betting the
Derby as there is 137 years of data already accumulated and can give you some
clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last
15 years have been quite telling only 2 horses with sub-100 CSIs have won and
those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in
2005 who won at 50-1. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that
also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at
13-1. The other 11 Kentucky Derby winners in last 15 years averaged a last race
CSI of 106.3.
Since 1955 only 1 horse (Iron Leige in 1957,
Historical reference, Kerouac’s On the Road is published) finished 5th or worse
in its final prep before the Derby and went on to win the Derby. This year we
have 3 horses (Liaison, Prospective, Optimizer) that are looking to change
history.
On the same vein, last time a horse finished
3rd in its final prep before the Derby and then won was Unbridled’s victory in
1990 (historical reference: West Germany wins the World Cup). Union Rags, Rousing Sermon and Sabrecat all
came in 3rd in last race.
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the
Derby without racing as a 2yo. (Historical reference: Jesse James is shot and
for Marlon Brando fans, Stellaland is a republic that is established in Africa).
Bodemeister is unraced as a 2yo.
Only one non-US trained horse has won the
Derby that was Venezuela’s Canonero II in 1971 (Historical Reference: Vida Blue
wins the AL MVP) No European trained horse has won the Derby....since 1945
there have been 25 that have tried -- only Bold Arrangement was a runner-up
(1986). Daddy Long Legs is trained in
Ireland.
So based on looking at these 3 factors – here
is the Locks’ analysis:
1 Daddy Long Legs
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Scat Daddy – Dreamy Madien (Meadowlake)
Owner: Michael Tabor & Mrs. John Magnier
Trainer: A.P. O’Brien
Jockey: C. O’Donoghue
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-81-xx
As noted, its been since the days of
bell-bottoms and 8 track tapes since a foreign trained horse has won the
Kentucky Derby and actually have to go back to ..er…forever to find a Kentucky
Derby winner that was European trained….it hasn’t happened. This colt is trained in Ireland by top trainer Aidan O'Brien. Last year we had a very British sounding
“Master of Hounds” lay down a stretch run that resulted in a 5th
place finish. Master of Hounds like
Daddy Long Legs came to the Derby from the UAE Derby in Dubai. UAE Derby is a raced at 1 3/16m which is
longer than any other US based prep for the Derby – so this horse has shown
that it could potential handle the 1 1/4m classic distance. On the face DLL’s performance in the UAE
Derby appears a bit better than MoHs as DLL won by a length plus while MoH
actually lost that race by a nose. But
looking at raw times of the UAE Derby compared to the Dubai World Cup that was
raced later that night – Master of Hounds time in the UAE Derby extrapolated
out would have put the colt winning the 2011 DWC. But by extrapolating out Daddy Long Leg’s
time to the Dubai World Cup would have put him 9 lengths behind Monterosso’s
winning effort. Extrapolation – think I
learned that one in Othmar Winkler’s Stat classes. DLL also wants to be near the lead which may
compromise the colt’s chances further.
The Locks Verdict: I am writing this after drinking a few pints of Guinness in Dublin but still have to pass on this Irish trained horse.
2 Optimizer
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: English Channel– Indy Pick (AP Indy)
Owner: Bluegrass Hall LLC
Trainer: D. W. Lukas
Jockey: Jon Court
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 89-102-89
DW Lukas with a horse in the Kentucky Derby may
prompt me to sport a pair of “D. Wayne’s” (an oversized pair of Foster Grants)
for the race. Watching him give a leg
up will be like stepping back in an late ‘80s/early ‘90s time machine – like
REM blasting from your Walkman or having the Soviet Union on your globe. Unfortunately, Optimizer the horse can’t put
himself in a time machine and return to 2012 as Grindstone, a DWL Derby winner
from the ‘90s. Horse has not had
success in getting into the winner’s circle – the colt did break its maiden at
first asking at Saratoga but has not won since.
The English Channel colt not only hasn’t won but also has had 4 real
clunkers in its 9 race history.
The Locks Verdict: Circa 1988, Musical Youth said “Pass the
Duchy on the Left Hand Side”
3 Take Charge Indy
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady (Dehere)
Owner: Chuck & MB Sandford
Trainer: P. Byrne
Jockey: C. Borel
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 96-109-94
This year, Chuck Sandford owner of Take Charge
Indy is playing the role of the late Sydney Craig. Sydney was a horse owner who sent 4 horses
to the Kentucky Derby on his wife’s (Jenny Craig of diet fame) dime. Chuck’s been buying his horses off the profits
of his wife’s bag company. Mrs. Sandford
must have paid a pretty penny for Take Charge Indy…as the colt is sired by one
of this generations greatest sires, AP Indy and the mare is multiple Grade 1
stakes winner, Take Charge Indy who also finished 2nd in the
Kentucky Oaks. This regally bred colt
has been sent to a trainer who has seen better days as a trainer. Patrick Byrne had an incredible run in the
late ‘90s…including training 2yo champion colt and filly in the same year. But appears lately, Byrne like Chuck Sandford
has taken a back seat to his wife’s career.
Patrick Byrne’s wife is Churchill Downs’ handicapper and commentator
while Byrne has only been trainer of record for 18 starts and 2 wins (including
Take Charge Indy’s Flordia Derby win) thus far this year and has less than 100
training starts in each of the last 8 years.
Take Charge Indy doesn’t fit the bill as a Derby winner this year – only
2 wins, running style that will be close to the pace. Unfortunately, Take Charge Indy can’t rely
on his future mates to lead to success.
The Locks Verdict: Pass
4 Union Rags
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Dixie Union – Tempo (Gone West)
Owner: Chadds Ford Stable
Trainer: M. Matz
Jockey: J. Leparoux
Morning Line Odds: 9/2
CSI Last 3 Races: 95-104-100
Union Rags is owned by Wyeth Family’s Chadds
Ford Stable…this is the family of painter Andrew Wyeth whose works includes the
famous Christina’s World - I just was over at the MoMA recently and
saw the painting hanging unceremoniously near the bathrooms – I guess all the
other garbage (literally garbage) that they have hanging around is more worthy
art. There was one painting, I saw, was
a 6“ x 6” canvas painted green – that’s it green – and it was Untitled – my
thought was “hey buddy, you couldn’t do much with the painting at least come up
with a cool name.” oh well….Union Rags has had a masterpiece of a career so far with a pretty cool
name. UR should have been the 2yo
Champion after winning the G2 Saratoga Special and the G1 Champagne but missed
winning the BC Juvenile by a head and also missed out on the Eclipse Award for
Best 2yo Colt. Question coming into the
2012 season was whether UR’s 2yo success could be extended as a 3yo. UR did win the Fountain of Youth at
Gulfstream and was stamped Derby favorite but came back to run 3rd
in the Florida Derby but UR looked to finish strong with a sub 12.5 last 1/8th
and galloped out past the winner. The
CSIs look a bit suspect but horse hasn’t done anything wrong in my book. Union Rags posted a sizzling workout (:46
3/5)
The Locks Verdict: Include in your mix.
5 Dullahan
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Even the Score – Mining My Own (Smart
Strike)
Owner: Dongegal Racing
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: K. Desormeaux
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 110-110-94
This horse may drive the Dongegal Racing
syndicate owners of Dullahan to drink….but undoubtedly they may get it right
the first time in ordering a drink compared to Hunter S. Thompson did as
written in his short piece, The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved:
"I'm ready for anything,
by God! Anything at all. Yeah, what are you drinkin?" I ordered a
Margarita with ice, but he wouldn't hear of it: "Naw, naw...what kind of
drink is that for Kentucky Derby time? What's wrong with you, boy?" He grinned and winked at the
bartender. "Geez, we gotta educate this boy. Get him some good whiskey..."
Dullahan waits until the end to put in his
run….causing some angst to the owners on whether he will get there in time. He also have tested the patience with the
owners in that he only has 2 wins to its name but actually both wins are in
Grade 1 races….Dullahan never won a maiden race. Dullahan’s Blue Grass win was impressive
but the race was set up for him nicely....if looking at the past performances
for Dullahan – reminds a lot of last year’s off-the-pace Blue Grass winner
Brilliant Speed – comes into Derby with same 8-2-2-2 record, prepped on the
Gulfstream Park turf, and took 5 races to break maiden. Problem here is that Brilliant Speed went off
in the Derby at 28-1, while it looks like one will only get 8-1 to 10-1. Also Dullahan was called DULL-ahan this week
after an unimpressive workout. Brilliant
Speed ended up 7th in the Derby and seems to be the destiny of this
colt.
The Locks Verdict: Piece picker-upper perhaps
6 Bodemeister
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Empire Maker – Untouched Talent (Storm Cat)
Owner: Zayat Stables
Trainer: B. Baffert
Jockey: M. Smith
Morning Line Odds: 4-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 107-108-111
Unraced as a 2 year old. ‘Nuff said.
Pass.[1]
7 Rousing Sermon
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Lucky Pulpit – Rousing Again (Awesome
Again)
Owner: Tree Top Stables
Trainer: J. Hollendorfer
Jockey: J. Lezcano
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 95-101-93
Rousing Sermon is the Caddyshack II of Derby
contenders….a horse that had a great year as a 2yo but shouldn’t have come back
to race as a 3yo because performance has not been quite as good. Rousing Sermon had 2 wins, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds
as a 2yo including a stakes win. But as a
3yo has only been in the money (3rd) in 3 tries including losses
while being beat by 7+ and 6+ lengths. Since
the owners of Rousing Sermon are from Idaho where Olive Garden is considered
fine dining - it could be the case that
Caddyshack II may be a magnum opus.
Also the last time a California bred horse won the Kentucky Derby was in
1962 (Decidedly) Historical Reference: 1962 is the year that Pete Best quit the
Beatles and is replaced by Ringo Starr…making one of the most decidedly stupid
decisions in history.
The Locks Verdict: Colt isn’t rousing any interest from the
Locks.
8 Creative Cause
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Giant’s Causeway – Dream of Summer
(Siberian Summer)
Owner: Heins Steinmann
Trainer: M. Harrington
Jockey: J. Rosario
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-109-103
Before Creative Cause, Heinz Steinmann’s most
successful horse was aptly named for Herr Steinmann’s heritage, Swiss
Yodeler. Steinmann has made his money as
you may expect a Switzerland native may do, beyond banking, making watches or
chocolate – he owns a ski mountain in California. Creative Cause unlike the Swiss doesn’t
know neutral and has done very little wrong for Steinmann and Steinmann’s long
time trainer Mike Harrington with chalking up 4 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds in
8 career starts including a win over Bodemeister in the San Felipe. Creative Cause also has shown some ability
under the Twin Spires with a solid third in the BC Juvenile. Also has shown some ability to overcome the
track bias at Santa Anita. Santa Anita
has favored those that are either on or just tracking the lead including almost
40% of winners at 1 1/16m coming on horses that have wired the field. Creative Cause, in last 3 races at Santa
Anita including the San Felipe win and a narrow loss in the Santa Anita Derby,
has come from off the pace. If there is
a knock here is that runners from Santa Anita hasn’t shown recent success on
Derby day.
The Locks Verdict: Like marshmallows into your Swiss Miss hot
chocolate, use in your mix.
9 Trinniberg
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Teufflesberg – Bella Dorato (Goldminers
Gold)
Owner: Shivanandra Racing
Trainer: B. Parboo
Jockey:W. Martinez
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 99-104-86
A confirmed sprinter and front runner which has
prompted pace lines like :20.8, :44.4 & :21.8, :45…..if the Derby goes
anything close to those fractions you can write off the chances any of the
horses that are in the first flight who I expect to be Hansen, Take Charge
Indy, I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister and possibly Gemologist. This colt who could have been yours for $21k
last April, has had only 2 flops both being on off tracks and has won 2
important 3yo sprint races but has yet to race longer than 7furlongs and will
be gone from your TV screen during the stretch.
The Locks Verdict: Pass – could(will) finish last.
10 Daddy Nose Best
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Scat Daddy – Follow Your Bliss(Thunder
Gulch)
Owner: Cathy & Bob Zollars
Trainer: S. Asmussen
Jockey: G. Gomez
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 112-105-95
Even though the name sounds like a circa 1958
sit-com written by an otolaryngologis, DNB is my Derby horse…let’s see what I
like:
-
Owns two - 9 furlong wins -
only horse in field that can say that,
-
Sports the highest CSI in the
field,
-
Running style will favor the
pace scenario that likely will unfold,
-
Ran last furlong in last race
at 12.19 secs which is 3rd fastest in field behind Dullahan and
Bodemeister
-
Working well at Churchill
Downs including a bullet work on April 16th and what was described
as a “monster gallop”.
-
Ran over 1 second faster than
top filly Princess A did earlier in the day at Sunland.
-
Showed professionalism in El
Camino Real Derby when blocked when entering stretch – was able to re-gather
momentum and win at the wire.
Only thing that has me thinking is that this
horse’s Daddy, Scat Daddy, let me down circa 2007. Scat Daddy also came into the Derby with 2 –
9 furlong wins and I keyed the horse in many of my bets…Scat Daddy ended up
next to last and I was sans a winning ticket – but dam-sire won both Kentucky
Derby and the Belmont. Too many things I
like at a real good price.
The Locks Verdict: The Derby Horse
11 Alpha
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Bernadini – Munnaya (Nijinsky II)
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: K. McLaughlin
Jockey: Rajiv Mariah
Morning Line Odds: 104-103-106
Alpha may be Shiekh Mohammed of Dubai’s
Godolphin Stables best chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Despite winning every major race in the
world, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the Sheikh has been as successful
as a North Korean missle launch. In 7
chances since 1999, the best showing is a 6th with China Visit in 2000. But Alpha comes in much more established than
the others. Has 3 wins and 2 place
finishes in 6 starts…Alpha’s only poor showing was in the BC Juvenile when
Alpha while being loaded in the gate acted up like a Secret Service agent at a
“wheel’s up” party, energy expended, Alpha ended up in 11th
place. The Bernadini home-bred colt has
been on the improve since - maybe an
overlay as only a neck off Gemologist in Wood but Gem will get more $$.
The Locks Verdict: Consider.
12 Prospective
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Malibu Moon – Spirited Away (Awesome Again)
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: M. Casse
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 103-105-97
If Prospective put in a better effort in the
Blue Grass Stakes, he could have been a more interesting play. A few things that the Locks likes is that
the horse has won 4 times including the Tampa Bay Derby and the Grey Stakes in
Canada. Also not sure if you can
question this Malibu Moon colt’s competition as Reveron who he outfinished in
the Sam F Davis (not Sammy Davis Jr.) Stakes went on to beat Union Rags in the
Florida Derby. Prospective is owned by
John Oxley who knows his way to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs as he
owned 2001 Derby winner Monarchos. Was
hoping for an improvement in effort from his races in Tampa to Keeneland but
this horse may be able surprise.
The Locks Verdict: Horse could be a Derby winning prospect, the
fact that people paid $5 for “pet rocks”, Michael Jackson was adored by
billions of fans, and people consider Derek Jeter a first ballot hall-of-famer have
all proven that crazier things have happened.
13 Went the Day Well
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Proud Citizen – Tiz Maie’s Day(Tiznow)
Owner: Team Valor International
Trainer: H. G. Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 101-102-100
Another certainty in the world will be that
trainer Graham Motion will be sick of questions on comparing this colt with
Animal Kingdom, the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Both are trained by England-native Motion,
both owned by Team Valor and ran for another trainer before being brought into
Motion’s barn, both won the Spiral Stakes (fka Jim Beam Stakes) at Turfway Park
while coming off the pace, both started career on turf. Both also came home in the last 1/8th
in :13+ in last race before Derby…this scared me off Animal Kingdom last year
and has me concerned in backing this horse this year.
The Locks Verdict: Play if you think lightening can strike twice
in the same spot.
14 Hansen
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Tapit – Stormy Sunday (Sir Cat)
Owner: Kendall Hansen, M.D.
Trainer: M. Maker
Jockey: R.A. Dominguez
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 109-100-105
If you in the past disappointedly watched the
Derby year in and year out but, never knew what horse was yours until the end of the
race when it came in last, will want to bet this horse. You will not miss this horse, first off it is
the only near white/gray horse in the field and then second, it will be on or
very close to the lead throughout the race. God couldn’t create a horse that
will be easier to spot. However, if you
want to bet on a horse that will win the race then this is not your horse. This horse
despite obvious talent will not win this race.
I am so confident that this horse will not win that this is my “Tom
Brady Pink Jersey Pledge” pick of 2012.
That is if this horse wins the race – on my next airline flight,I will wear a pink women’s size medium Tom Brady jersey. May need Hansen's owner Kendall Hansen, M.D. for a cure for DVT if the colt does win. Some of you may ask - “Why you hatin’ JC??” – well I am not hating
this horse – I actually made good money on this Tapit colt when he won the BC
Juvenile at 7+ to 1 and truly admire this horse’s courage. This horse only knows one gear and that is
run as fast he can as far as he can and like with the courageous Shackleford
last year – he will come up a little short trying to wire the field going mile
and a quarter distance. Also there are
going to be other horses that will pressure him on the front end – including
Trinniberg and Take Charge Indy among others.
The Locks Verdict: Pass
15 Gemologist
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Tiznow – Crystal Shard (Mr. Prospector)
Owner: Winstar Farm LLC
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Jockey: JJ Castellano
Morning Line Odds: 6-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 104-110-103
Gemologist owners, so I’ve heard, are holy
rollers so they would love my comparison of this colt to the “Meadowlands
Messiah” Tim Tebow. This colt like Timmy
T. has won at every level. Tebow has
already wona High School championship and won a national title with the Florida
Gators and now as part of the World’s Greatest American Football Team, the New
York Jets is certain to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Gotham. Gemologist has simply not lost. A perfect 5 for 5 – including 2 two-turn
races under the Twin Spires. These races
at Churchill Downs includes a race run 6 days before the BC Juvenile that I
calculate as faster than that super-key race.
This Todd Pletcher trainee comes to the Derby off an exciting win in the
Wood Memorial - this race is where I may
start to find some fault with Gemologist – the final 1/8th even though
under a stretch duel versus Alpha was a slow 13+ seconds. However, down the
stretch in the Wood seemed that Gemologist was somewhat un-Tebow-esque – it
seemed the Tiznow colt was the Mark Sanchez to Alpha’s Tim Tebow. Alpha putting in the 100% fully extended
effort while Gemologist seemed to be aloof and playing until the end when
realized that he needed to find another gear to win the race.
The Locks Verdict: Like Tebow maybe not in the
top spot but will need to play.
An aside to those Jets fans out there who question the move to
obtain Tebow over the off-season. Who
can honestly say the Jets are not a better team with Tebow on the roster? Jets new offensive coordinator loves to run
the wildcat – and there is no better wildcat QB than Tebow. People question whether Mark Sanchez’s fragile
psyche will be tested with Tebow pushing him as a back-up – so be it – ‘bout
time that the Sanchize gets off the couch and start applying himself
16 El Padrino
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Pulpit– Enchanted Rock (Giants Causeway)
Owner: Let’s Go Stable
Trainer:T. Pletcher
Jockey:R. Bejarano
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 93-102-111
El Padrino or as translated “the Godfather” is
a beautifully bred colt.
The Godfather had a great opportunity to be
labeled as early Derby favorite by winning the Florida Derby but the colt
flattened out in the stretch and finished an uninspiring 4th. But you cannot ignore this colt on a wet
track – romped by 12+ lengths in a maiden race at Belmont in the slop and then
put in its best performance in a 1 1/16th mile race on the off-going
at Gulfstream where the colt popped a 111 CSI.
Colt also put in a very poor workout this week but it could be a case
that the horse is the Allen Iverson of thoroughbreds, “Practice?!? Are we
talking about practice??”.
The Locks Verdict: Michael Corleone on the wet stuff, Fredo on
a fast track.
17 Done Talking
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Broken Vow – Dixie Talking (Dixieland Band)
Owner: Skedattle Stable
Trainer: H. Smith
Jockey: S. Russell
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 107-79-94
Lot of talk that this horse is simply too slow
– Beyers that haven’t broken 90, winning the Illinois Derby in 1:53+. But my calculations have this horse with CSIs
of 107-109-106 for this Broken Vow colts 3 wins which compares favorably to
Bodemeister’s last 3 races of 107-108-111.
Has handled large fields as his Illinois Derby win was against 13
others. Had impressive move in the 1
1/8m Remsen to get 4th but galloped out in the lead.
The Locks Verdict: Consider in exotics.
18 Sabercat
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Bluegrass Cat – Miner’s Blessing (Forty
Niner)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer:S. Asmussen
Jockey:C. Nakatani
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 97-97-97
Sabercat’s daddy came in second in this race –
so did his mommy’s daddy. Sounds like a good family. After having a good year last year including
winning a $1 million race (thus stamping the ticket to Churchill Downs) at
Delta Downs, this year the ‘Cat is just starting to improve but it may be too
late to attempt at the toughest race in American horse racing.
The Locks Verdict: Look for Cat
with a Twist another Bluegrass Cat offspring in the future.
19 I’ll Have Another
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Flower Alley– Arch’s Gal Edith (Arch)
Owner: JP Reddam
Trainer: D. O’Neil
Jockey: M. Gutierrez
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 101-100-77
I’ll Have Another was not named because the
owner is a barfly (“To all my friends”) but because of the owner’s insatiable
appetite for his wife’s homebaked cookies.
I’ll Have Another is a horse that has not done anything wrong in its
career. I consider this horses race in
early September an aberration – horse had to cross country to race in the slop
at Saratoga so with that race discounted the horse has 3 wins and 1 second in 4
races – the only 2nd was at 6.5 furlongs in August of last
year. What is troubling here is that
the horse’s speed figures are coming up short in looking compared to par at
winning the Derby. Also the colt is
coming into the race from what I’d call a negative key race – the Santa Anita
Derby. In the past 13 runnings of the
Kentucky Derby, 35 horses had their previous race at Santa Anita and these
horses have only yielded 1 win (unlikely Giacamo in 2005), 1 2nd, and 1 3rd – all things being equal
you’d expect similar results from only 20 runners. Maybe I have East Coast bias against left
coast horses but those are the facts that back it up.
The Locks Verdict: Pass.
Talking East Coast/West Coast…has anyone figured out what the East
Coast response is going to be to the hologram Tupac that Snoop and Dre threw
down at Coachella?? My inside source in
to Hova (Jay-Z) and Diddy world are that they are planning on transforming the
Statue of Liberty into the Statue of Biggie (aka Notorious BIG). Of course lady liberty will have start
munching on bon-bons to make it happen.
20 Liaison
Sire/Dam/Dam-Sire: Indian Charlie – Galloping Gal(Victory
Gallop)
Owner: Arnold Zetcher
Trainer: B. Baffert
Jockey: M. Garcia
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
CSI Last 3 Races: 92-103-xx
Like Lamar Odom, had a better year last year.
The Locks Verdict: Like a wise man once said “Can’t Make a
Kardashian A Housewife”
The Locks are:
$40 Win #10 Daddy Nose Best
$1 Saver Exacta (All over #10) (19 x 1) = $19
$1 Exacta #10, #8 CC, #6 Bode, #4 UR, #11
Alpha, #15 Gem (6x5x$1) = $30
$1 Trifecta #10,#6,#4,#15 over #10, #6,
#4,#15,#11 over #10, #6, #4,#15,#11,#8 = (4x4x4) = $64
$5 Win #12 Prospective
$2 Win #17 Done Talking
$40 + $19 + $30 + $64 +$5 +$2 = $160.
If the track turns up wet – take Creative Cause out of mix and drop
in El Padrino.
Good Luck!!!
[1] Ok…ok…ok…Bodemeister could be the real deal and you
can’t find a much more impressive race than the destroying the field in the
Arkansas Derby. Bodemeister will be the
favorite and the favorite always gets overbet in the Derby. But there are some
things that may be troubling to bet on this horse at odds of 3-1 or less, first
off, can 130 years of history of a jinx on horses not running as a 2yo be a
coincidence? Also will Bode be able to
rate off what is expected to be a hot pace set by Trinniberg? Question 1 will only be answered by time,
Question 2 may be answered by the fact that Bode was still able to extend its
speed in clicking off a sub :12 last 1/8th in the Arkansas Derby. I
would like a bit more in the way of odds to key this horse but I certainly will
need Bode in all mixes.
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