2012 Kentucky Derby - the Early Locks Contenders Pt 2 - Futures Bet

Its been 5 weeks since the Lock's original early Kentucky Derby contender and there has been a number of changes to the list.   This weekend we also have the Kentucky Derby Futures bets that are open.   This bet isn't for everyone as you need to get much better odds than you would get on the first Saturday of May as those that understand the Black-Scholes model would know.   


So here are the Contenders...

Fed Biz ☝

Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Impressive in an optional claiming at Santa Anita.   Baffert very high on the colt.

Algorithms ☝
Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Open length winner of Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park adds to appeal.

Union Rags ☝
Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West

Trainer: Michael Matz

Training well for 3yo debut in Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, February 26th.

Sabercat 
Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Training for 3yo debut in San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10.

Gemologist
Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Training for 3yo debut possibly Tampa Bay Derby or the Rebel at Oaklawn.

Creative Cause ☝
Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Training well for San Vincente at Santa Anita on February 19th. 

___________

Here are some that are new to the list.

Fly Lexis Fly ☝
Badge of Silver - Becky Loves Silver, by Silver Charm

Trainer: Neil Drysdale

Very interesting potential.  Won 2 G1 Classics versus older horses in Peru  - won Peru Derby by 10+ lengths even though running on wrong lead for half of stretch.

Alpha ☝
Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II
Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin
The Sheik (aka Godolphin) has won every big race in the world except for the Kentucky Derby after years of trying maybe this year is the year.  Derby pedigree.  Impressively won the Withers at Aqueduct and next will race in the Wood.
Prospective ☝
Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Throw out BC Juvenile and horse hasn't done much wrong. Showed a great late kick in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay.  
Exothermic ☝
Empire Maker - Irridescence (SAF), by Caesour
Trainer:  George R. Arnold, II
2 for 2 including a win going 9 furlongs coming off the pace.   Pedigree should help too.
Out of Bounds ☝
Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song
Trainer: Eoin G. Harty
Came off the pace to the win the Sham Stakes.  High speed fig.   Will horse be able to outrun its miler pedigree?
Junebugred 
Corinthian - Dixie Melody by Dixieland Band
Trainer: Steve Hobby
Off the pace 2 turn stakes win at Oaklawn makes this one the Locks wants to follow.
El Padrino ☝
Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Hasn't done much wrong - won a 2 turn allowance at Gulfstream Park showing a great late kick.
_________

Here are a few that we will keep on list but are on probation as we haven't seen enough in last few weeks.

Liaison 
Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Not sure what to make of Robert Lewis Stakes...lost rider in mid-stretch...will have to see how horse responds in next prep.

Summer Front 
War Front - Rose of Summer, by El Prado (IRE)

Trainer: Christophe Clement

No workouts yet since December race but will still follow.

Lemon Juice 
Johannesburg - Lemon Lady, by Lemon Drop Kid

Trainer: Dane Kobieskie

No recent workouts...hasn't raced since October but still interesting to see if will return to form as 3yo.

-----------------

Here are some from my original list that fall off....

Ever So Lucky ☟

Indian Charlie - Bally Storm, by Summer Squall

Trainer: Jonathan Sheppard

Trainer admits that isn't sure that colt is a Derby horse and that distance may be an issue.
Hierro 
Hard Spun - Brief Bliss, by Navarone

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

5th in Sham Stakes at Santa Anita may not be pushed to pursue Derby.

O'Prado Again ☟

El Prado (IRE) - Leh She Run, by Pulpit

Trainer: Dale Romans

Leg injury  - off Derby trail.
Timely Tally ☟
Mr. Greeley - Score, by A.P. Indy
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Tendon injury - off Derby trail

_____________

The Locks will make the following Kentucky Derby Future bets:

$15 on Fed Biz at 24-1....my feeling will be one of the Derby favorites come May.

$15 on Sabrecat at 35-1..