2012 Kentucky Derby - the Early Locks Contenders Pt 2 - Futures Bet

Its been 5 weeks since the Lock's original early Kentucky Derby contender and there has been a number of changes to the list.   This weekend we also have the Kentucky Derby Futures bets that are open.   This bet isn't for everyone as you need to get much better odds than you would get on the first Saturday of May as those that understand the Black-Scholes model would know.   


So here are the Contenders...

Fed Biz ☝

Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Impressive in an optional claiming at Santa Anita.   Baffert very high on the colt.

Algorithms ☝
Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Open length winner of Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park adds to appeal.

Union Rags ☝
Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West

Trainer: Michael Matz

Training well for 3yo debut in Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, February 26th.

Sabercat 
Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Training for 3yo debut in San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10.

Gemologist
Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Training for 3yo debut possibly Tampa Bay Derby or the Rebel at Oaklawn.

Creative Cause ☝
Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Training well for San Vincente at Santa Anita on February 19th. 

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Here are some that are new to the list.

Fly Lexis Fly ☝
Badge of Silver - Becky Loves Silver, by Silver Charm

Trainer: Neil Drysdale

Very interesting potential.  Won 2 G1 Classics versus older horses in Peru  - won Peru Derby by 10+ lengths even though running on wrong lead for half of stretch.

Alpha ☝
Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II
Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin
The Sheik (aka Godolphin) has won every big race in the world except for the Kentucky Derby after years of trying maybe this year is the year.  Derby pedigree.  Impressively won the Withers at Aqueduct and next will race in the Wood.
Prospective ☝
Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Throw out BC Juvenile and horse hasn't done much wrong. Showed a great late kick in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay.  
Exothermic ☝
Empire Maker - Irridescence (SAF), by Caesour
Trainer:  George R. Arnold, II
2 for 2 including a win going 9 furlongs coming off the pace.   Pedigree should help too.
Out of Bounds ☝
Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song
Trainer: Eoin G. Harty
Came off the pace to the win the Sham Stakes.  High speed fig.   Will horse be able to outrun its miler pedigree?
Junebugred 
Corinthian - Dixie Melody by Dixieland Band
Trainer: Steve Hobby
Off the pace 2 turn stakes win at Oaklawn makes this one the Locks wants to follow.
El Padrino ☝
Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Hasn't done much wrong - won a 2 turn allowance at Gulfstream Park showing a great late kick.
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Here are a few that we will keep on list but are on probation as we haven't seen enough in last few weeks.

Liaison 
Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Not sure what to make of Robert Lewis Stakes...lost rider in mid-stretch...will have to see how horse responds in next prep.

Summer Front 
War Front - Rose of Summer, by El Prado (IRE)

Trainer: Christophe Clement

No workouts yet since December race but will still follow.

Lemon Juice 
Johannesburg - Lemon Lady, by Lemon Drop Kid

Trainer: Dane Kobieskie

No recent workouts...hasn't raced since October but still interesting to see if will return to form as 3yo.

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Here are some from my original list that fall off....

Ever So Lucky ☟

Indian Charlie - Bally Storm, by Summer Squall

Trainer: Jonathan Sheppard

Trainer admits that isn't sure that colt is a Derby horse and that distance may be an issue.
Hierro 
Hard Spun - Brief Bliss, by Navarone

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

5th in Sham Stakes at Santa Anita may not be pushed to pursue Derby.

O'Prado Again ☟

El Prado (IRE) - Leh She Run, by Pulpit

Trainer: Dale Romans

Leg injury  - off Derby trail.
Timely Tally ☟
Mr. Greeley - Score, by A.P. Indy
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Tendon injury - off Derby trail

_____________

The Locks will make the following Kentucky Derby Future bets:

$15 on Fed Biz at 24-1....my feeling will be one of the Derby favorites come May.

$15 on Sabrecat at 35-1..

Super Bowl LXVI - The Locks Consults Mayan Prohecy

The Locks didn't really have to do a lot of work to find how to wager on Super Bowl XLVI.  We all know that there is a well known jinx against Tom Brady so the Patriots fate was really sealed years ago.    But the Locks doesn't like leave much to chance especially for the Big Game.  
During one of my journeys abroad, I came across a shaman who pointed me to the prophecies of the Mayans as a good predictor of contests that are denoted in roman numerals.   The Mayans are the same guys who 1000+ years ago used to roam the same streets that you can find Senor Frog's today.   The Mayans are getting a lot of publicity this year because they've boldly predicted the end of world in 2012.    Based on the shaman's advice I've researched the Mayans predictions for the future.  I actually found one Mayan wood carving, amazingly, in the corner of a rare curio shop called Spencer's Gifts and the prediction is quite interesting, so here's the quote:

In the last year of the world…There shall be a contest on a grid of iron  with a skin of a pig.  This contest shall be in the city of indians between large men from a city that never slumbers against feeble men from a city of beans. 

The feeble men will be led by a man that wears boots of a lady and he will be slaughtered in the contest.  The large men shall win the contest with the tally of 27.  The tally of the feeble men shall be 24.  The chosen ones who shall wager for the large men and few tallys in the city of sin shall also prosper.

I have deeply analyzed these words written in an  Mayan dialect which closely resembles English and have interpreted this to mean that the Giants will cover the spread and also to bet the under.  


So the Locks are: Giants and the under. 


Good Luck! Go New York!  Beat Brady!