Saturday May 21 will be the 136th Running of the Preakness Stakes.....the Second Leg of the Triple Crown....a quick 2 week turnaround from the Derby...the quick recovery is one of the reasons we haven’t had a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed did it in ’78. The quick turnaround also put a crimp in my ability to put together my Preakness picks quickly.
The Preakness, as any one who attended the event knows, is absolutely crazy..bonkers!....even after barring coolers and introducing the bottomless beer mug it still is a rite of passage of utter debauchery. And the people who sponsor the Preakness have embraced this and has adopted as their mascot for their marketing campaign, Kegasus...as in keg of beer + mythological horse....Kegasus is a centaur (half-man/half-horse, for those of you who aren’t versed in Greek mythology) descrbied to be “Part champion Thoroughbred, part infield fan and all party manimal, ‘I am Kegasus, Lord and protector of InfieldFest.’ I am just quoting here...I swear... mayhem will rule the day.
As I now favor to actually watch the race and hadn’t been to the infield since the ‘90s, I’ve actually handicapped the race.
In the Preakness I’ve handicapped in similar fashion will look for relative value plays as in the Derby - so I will concentrate on the following factors:
• Horses that haven’t done much wrong....looking for horses that have not run out of the money and with at least 3 wins. Still want to see horses that have seen success at the track for the Preakness .
• Late pace....looking for horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race. As to late pace - I am not just looking at closers but those that can also sustain their speed – there is misconception that the Preakness is the “short” race – yes, its 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby but still 1/16th of a mile longer than these horses had run prior to the Derby. As the late Doc Sartin said “pace makes the race” which is so true for this race. The pace may very well dictate who wins this race. A lot of talk has been on that there will be a lot of pace pressure and that we should expect fast fractions --- :46, 1:11... but I am not necessary buying into that...I thought in the Derby with 4 or 5 horses vying for the lead that the pace would be amped up and I looked at Dialed In and Arch^3 to be there in the end but in actuality, Shackleford was able to coast on a fairly easy lead and almost stole the race. In this year’s Preakness it looks like Shackleford again will prompt the pace along with Flashpoint and Dance City. If we look at past races, Shackleford was able to prompt the pace in the Florida Derby and hold for second and Flashpoint the horse actually expected to jet off to lead in that raced in 3rd a length off. Then if you look at Dance City’s Arkansas Derby he actually chased JP’s Gusto and didn’t push that horse. So I am taking a contrarians view on the pace scenario and expect to see a moderate pace of :47, 1:12.
• History... Usually like to cite and rely on historic trends to assist in my handicapping but didn’t have time to do so.... So punting on the influence of history
• Fresh horse...As you can tell from the good horses that didn’t make it to the gate for the Derby –Uncle Mo, Toby’s Corner—the Derby trail is brutal as such looking for the horse that didn’t run in the Derby and has relative fresh legs are worth a look.
So please see my horse-by-horse analysis and the Locks.....
PP Horse Morning Line Odds
1. Astrology (15-1)
2. Norman Asbjornson (30-1)
3. King Congie (20-1)
4. Flashpoint (20-1)
5. Shackleford (12-1)
6. Sway Away (15-1)
7. Midnight Interlude (15-1)
8. Dance City (12-1)
9. Mucho Macho Man (6-1)
10. Dialed In (9-2)
11. Animal Kingdom (2-1)
12. Isn’t He Perfect (30-1)
13. Concealed Identity (30-1)
14. Mr. Commons (20-1)
Animal Kingdom
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: Robby Albarado John Velazquez
CSI: 105/97/106
After the Derby and when you don’t cash any tickets you always have do some level of Monday morning quarterbacking....AK wasn’t a toss in my mind but didn’t play the horse based on comments coming from Graham Motion on horse’s ability to take to dirt and the fact that the horse didn’t come home in the Spiral (nee Jim Beam) Stakes in sparkiling time. Horse did positives I liked...stamina breeding and the fact that horse did win twice at 1 1/8th before the Derby. I also didn’t take into account that Team Valor would throw Robby Albarado to the curb in favor of John Velazquez....can’t say what I’d do in the same situation....story was that Albarado got a broken nose in races before Derby and was replaced for future Hall of Fame jock John Velazquez who didn’t have a ride due to the scratch to Uncle Mo. Albarado, a seasoned vet, ended up riding on Derby Day at Churchill Downs but not in the Derby....from the outside seems a bit shabby by Team Valor head Barry Irwin. But maybe it's a fact that Irwin doesn’t register high on my list as he tried to monopolize the racing syndicate game after his Kentucky Derby runner-up finish with Captain Bodgit by trying to put the squeeze on my brother and I when trying to raise some money to syndicate St. Danny Boy and Goldie.....horse is masterly trained by
Graham Motion and is fairly fresh with only 5 starts so the horse should be able to hit the board on Saturday but not ready to key on a horse going off at 2-1.
Dialed In
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
CSI: 97/104/105
To the uneducated eye, the 8th place finish in the Kentucky Derby can viewed as a huge disappointment and that this horse should be discounted in the Preakness. But if you look at the slow fractions of the race....:48+, 1:13+...you knew after 1⁄2 mile the horse had no shot of winning the race....this is true gamble....if race goes in :45,:46 then this horse has a excellent shot of winning, if race goes :47.2+ then horse won’t win.. Other trainers would have put a sacrificial rabbit in the race to get the pace they want but Zito hasn’t been tempted to do so......I going to take a contrarian view and think that the pace won’t be pushed as much as the pundits say so I am not going to key Dialed In.
Midnight Interlude
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
CSI: 87/xxx/xxx
Maybe trainer Bob Baffert knows something we don’t and is giving the Preakness a shot after not showing up (16th place) in the Derby. There are other horses to like in this race...Pass.
Mucho Macho Man
Trainer: Kathy Ritvo
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
CSI: 102/99/101
MMM hasn’t ran a bad race and the Preakness may be the race the horse needs to break-through for victory. Has the ability to show tactical speed and stay close or off the pace as such may not be victimized if the fractions are hopped up or crawling. As noted in Derby write up that MMM could (and did) make the late Glen Hughes, formerly “Leatherman” from the Village People. Doing a little research on Mr. Hughes seems that he was interred in his Leatherman outfit and is buried at St. Charles Cementary, yards away from where my granddad, AHS, Esq. who introduced me to horse racing at a tender age “Don’t tell your mother I took you to OTB”, rests......I liked MMM enough to consider in Derby and he stepped up...think the Preakness maybe this horse’s race....
Shackleford
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
CSI: 101/95/80
Ran a great race in the Derby as the colt was able to settle in on the lead and punch out slow fractions and was in position to win but couldn’t hold up the lead and finished a courageous 4th place. The pace scenario in the Derby didn’t play out as I expected where the race had splits of :48.6 and 1:13.4 where I thought the splits wold be a second or so faster.....how the fractions go in the Preakness will determine whether Dialed In will be a factor and if Shackleford has a shot.
Concealed Identity
Trainer: Eddie Gaudet
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
CSI: 107/111/102
This gelding (ouch!!) is this year’s “local” entrant into the Preakness. Has 4 wins in 8 tries on the Maryland circuit including 2 “driving” wins at Pimilico in its last 2 races. Although, the Beyer Speed figures are quite pedestrian, they are on a steady improve from the first race in October and its CSIs can’t be matched by others. Sire of this horse, Smarty Jones won the Preakness by open lengths. Morning line of 30-1 makes an already live horse for me even more appetizing. May get bet down from its 30-1 odds due to the fact that the on-track bettors (boozers) may like the local angle. Include in bets....
Sway Away
Trainer: Jeff Bonde
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
CSI: 104/101/xxx
The Arkansas Derby is already starting to prove itself as a key race with the fact that Nehro came in 2nd in the Arkansas and then also was runner-up in the Derby and the fifth place finisher of the Arkansas, Alternation, came back to win the Peter Pan (sans-a-green tights) Stakes at Belmont. Makes one wonder what Arch^3 would have done in the Ky. Derby if not getting injured...hmmmmm... But Dance City and Sway Away, the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the Arkansas are entered into the Preakness. Sway Away is owned by among others, Batman
Stables, and the jock on this horse has previously sported some black and gray Batman-esque silks...the above silks must be the “away alternative” silks for the stable– much in the way MLB and NFL teams thought up alternative jerseys to drive up merchandise sales. But this gets me thinking on a business opp.....and I think I may aim to build up the market when I get to the track next. I am going to wear our old Bell Run blue and green silks to the track....maybe a bit snug since they are made for a person who weighs about 75lbs less than me but I want to start the trend of wearing silks to cheer on the horses at the track....much like at MLB, NHL, NFL, English premier et al games (although I feel many are better served to wear a t-shirt underneath, a la Patrick circa ’83, when attending a hoops game when you choose to wear a game jersey). Silks aren’t cheap but my guess is when I sell these things en masse I can make the business work. Start out selling current year Triple Crown favorites....then lead to “throw-back silks” like the Cherney blue and white checkerboard (circa ’73 and based on the poor quality of our color TV I always thought it was green and white) that Cruget wore on Big Red. Then can branch out to Ireland, UK,Dubai, Japan, HK places where horse racing still draws thousands of fans...all soon to be sporting Crager Locks brand silks to the races.......Sway Away like MMM may have tactical speed and may have fared better in Arkansas if didn’t move too early circling the field. Taking that the Arkansas Derby is a key race and that will need to consider this horse.
Dance City
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
CSI: 105/101/104
Dance City sounds like a ante-MTV TV show rip-off of Dance Fever....Dance Fever, if you recall, was hosted by Deney Terrio (always thought it was Danny Terrio but internet says “Deney” so must be true). As noted comes in off of the key race Arkansas Derby. Horse will factor in the pace along with Flashpoint and Shackleford, and may be there in the end.
Isn't He Perfect
Trainer: Doodnauth Shivmangal
Jockey: Edgar Prado
CSI: 99/95/104
The owner of this horse poses the question through the horse’s name and the quick and easy answer is “No”....2 wins and 1 third in 12 starts.....includes losses of 9 1⁄2 , 6 1⁄4, 6 1⁄2, 13 3⁄4, 10, 10, 4 1/2, & 47...also there was a race the horse was eased. If you can make a bet on the horse that will come in last I’d be on this one ....Pass, Pass, Pass
Norman Asbjornson
Trainer: Christopher Grove
Jockey: Julian Pimentel
CSI: 96/105/100
Saw this horse race in person when I went to Aqueduct...seems to me that all the seagulls they scare away from JFK end up at Aqueduct...not only in the infield but on the track, on the rail, on the toteboard, in the seats and I saw at least 3 that flew inside the facility. Seagulls ranks about 1,199,999 of 1,200,000 on my list of favorite animal species that exist in the world....I am giving seagulls the benefit of the doubt that I may not like some animal I don’t know about. My guess on this horse’s chances is that may race in second flight and then flatten out.
Flashpoint
Trainer: Wesley A. Ward
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
CSI: 89/104/105
Back in the day, on the West Islip HS lacrosse team (#1 in USA..www.laxpower.com) they (well those on the team, like me, that were non-starters) used to call me “Flash” ....part of the moniker came from that I liked to play the game with more flash and flair than substance (couldn’t catch the ball with my left and at times with my right too) but it also referred to that any brilliant play I’d show would in a “flash” be followed with a turnover. I was kind of the Harold Miner of WI lax...remember Miner won the NBA Dunk contest but averaged less than 10points and 12 minutes a game and was out of the NBA in a few seasons. That is going to be the case with Flashpoint ...will show some Flash but only for short period and then burn out...colt would be better served running in the Met Mile over Memorial Day weekend than running in this race. Expectation is that the horse will be on or close to the pace and then will throw in the towel during the stretch....if Flashpoint can be rated or not may dictate who wins the race...again with the feeling pace makes the race......Pass
Mr. Commons
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
CSI: xxx/xxx/101
Mr. Commons sire is a horse that won the BC Mile for Timber Bay Stables named Artie Schiller. Timber Bay was owned by south-shore Long Island resident, William Entenmann before he died. You may know his bakery business including the awesome Chocolate Chip Crumb Loaf they make.... I know the name Artie Schiller as it is what the bar at the Southside Hotel in Bay Shore was unofficially called ....Schiller’s was a classic bar with a small pool table sitting in the center of the room, a great juke-box, and a hot-dog roaster...although never dared to eat one of those delicacies. Mr. Commons like Artie Schiller the horse may be better suited for turf. Mr Commons held out for 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby...but it seems to me that the Santa Anita is a negative key race as first and second in the SA ended up 16th and 19th in the Kentucky Derby and 4th place finisher, Silver Medallion’s next race was a disappointing 4th in the Lexington. Will have to think that this horse will win some races in the future but not Preakness.
Astrology
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
CSI: 106/99/96
Astrology is one of those “hobbies” “interests” that I don’t fully understand...the idea that our life may be dictated by the positioning of stars and planets doesn’t hold water with me...I guess the only Astrology I may believe in is the Apohsis asteroid – that's the big rock some smart scientist guys think is going to hit Earth in the next 25 years. When I see that thing bearing down on New York then I think I will start believing celestial bodies will dictate my daily life but until then – the fact that Neptune is in the seventh house of the Sagitarias won’t cause me to have a bad day....Astrology is being touted as the best horse that didn’t run in the Derby but to enter the Preakness and there are some things to consider...Astrology is a colt by AP Indy....the same sire of Bernadini who won the Preakness in 2006 without racing in the Derby...Astrology is owned by the late Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen these are the same connections that won 2 of the last 4 Preakness Stakes. Astrology also hasn’t raced out of the money in 7 races (7-2-3- 2). Astrology will be in the 2nd flight of horses behind the cited pace horses so has shown a level of tactical speed. All these things are nice but the one thing that stands out to me is that the horse came in 2nd in the Sunland Derby behind Twice the Appeal...a horse that I discounted and ended up in 10t in the Derby.so I can’t expect Astrology will be able to become that much better of a horse to be able to win this race....I would make the pink Tom Brady jersey vow that I did on Twice the Appeal in the Derby on this horse’s chances of winning the Preakness but I wouldn’t want to tempt fate....but to some of you, my fate has already been ordained by Jupiter entering into the 9th house.....
King Congie
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Jockey: Robby Albarado
CSI: 101/107/105
Like Astrology has a connection to Bernadini, a horse that didn’t race in the Derby but won the Preakness....Tom Albertraini was the trainer of Bernadini that won the fateful day that Barbaro broke down in the Preakness. King Congie hasn’t done a thing wrong in 2011...finished first in the Hallandale Beach Stakes but was disqualified and placed third after interfering with stable-mate Brilliant Speed and then came in third lost by a short head in the Blue Grass stakes. So have shown 2 good 1 1/8th mile showings in past few months. Has shown a steady increase in Beyers figures...hasn’t raced successfully on dirt and workouts don’t suggest that horse will relish the surface....have to make a stand against this one even though I made the same mistake in not betting on Animal Kingdom because lack of dirt starts. May consider.
Now for the Crager Locks.....I am taking the contrarrian position that Dialed In won’t get the quick pace he needs to make up enough ground in the end.
$15 Win: Mucho Macho Man
$1 Exacta Saver: All over MMM
$8 WPS Concealed Identity
$2 Exacta Box: MMM, Animal Kingdom, Sway Away, Shackleford
$1 Trifecta Wheel MMM, Animal Kingdom, Shackleford over MMM, Animal
Kingdom, Sway Away, Shackleford over MMM, Animal Kingdom, Sway Away,
Shackleford, Concealed Identity
Because I want you to cash a ticket as a hedge please also bet:
$5 WPS Dialed In
$15 + $13 + $24 + $24 + $27 + $15 = $118...
Also look for Cresco Grande, Win Variation and Sadamu Patek to make up the trio in the Japanese Derby on May 29...
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