2011 Kentucky Derby
The Locks
It’s Derby time... the Maker’s Mark has been steeped in mint for months...the prep races have been contested from Gulfstream to Golden Gate, from Dubai to Delta Downs....the field of 20 3-year olds has been selected......and the Locks have been formulated.
Not an easy year....horseracing is a tough sport on the jockeys, trainers and owners as well as the amateur handicappers....Lets take this week for instance, I had my Derby pick that I’ve been following since February, Toby’s Corner, coming off a huge upset victory over Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial and had all the right attributes for a Derby winner but was still flying under the radar thus could have got 10-1, maybe even 12-1. Having a horse like this land in the Derby felt like it was like Christmas Day and Santa brought me a pony. Unfortunately, after the horse’s workout this week, Toby’s Corner’s trainer Graham Motion noticed the colt was a little off and declared the horse from the race. I was somewhat crushed.... but I started thinking what the Cotters, the owners of Toby’s Corner, must feel in having a horse that they bred and nurtured come within a day from being entered into the Kentucky Derby and now being sidelined with an injury.....to be honest, since Tuesday I’ve been scrambling to find where to put my money.....so I need to stick to what’s worked in the past.
Historically in handicapping and finding value plays in the Derby I concentrate on the following factors, the Locks Winning Patterns:
Horses that haven’t done much wrong....looking for horses that have not run out of the money and with at least 3 wins.
Late pace....looking for horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
History...Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Wins
Jesuit-educated Vince Lombardi is famously quoted “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing...” I have to agree....winning in Derby preps is important... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1. Also, there have been only 6 Derby winners in that period that ran 2 or more clunkers (out of the money races) before the Derby and
the average odds on those horses have been 24-1. Master of Hounds, Santiva and Nehro come into the race with only 1 win a piece. While not counting first races, Twice the Appeal, Watch Me Go, Comma to the Top, Twinspired, and Stay Thirsty have thrown 2 or more clunkers. So, if you are going to bet any of these horses you want the prices to back up the risk.
Pace
I am a student of Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold you’ll need to break out your past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits. This race hasn’t been as easy to determine in how it will play due to the defection of The Factor. The Factor is a freaky-fast colt trained by Bob Baffert that passed on coming to the Derby and would have made more certain speedy fractions. But even without The Factor, and the fact no sprinter was thrown in the race as a rabbit a la Honour and Glory and Trippi et al.... I still expect the pace to be pushed because there are enough horses that will want to lead ...maybe we’ll see :46.2- :47.0, 1:11, Horses expected to factor in the pace are Comma to the Top, Soldat, Decisive Moment, Shackleford, Pants on Fire, Uncle Mo, while Master of Hounds, Midnight Interlude and Mucho Macho Man are expected to be up close too. This will help those horses that want to come off the pace and the extent how fast the horses run on the pace will determine how deep a closer can be and still vie for the win. I feel however that one of the pace horses above will still be in the mix at end maybe Soldat, maybe Shackleford, maybe Pants of Fire....
History
I enjoy history and almost got the academic parchment to back it up --- as some of you know I was a half a semester shy of being a history minor at Georgetown.....got tripped up on my History of Russia mid-term, I was studying by drinking my version of a White Russian (equal parts Cossack vodka and YooHoo) but no-one cared to tell me that Cossack vodka, despite having a picture of guys with furry hats and heavy eyebrows on the bottle, wasn’t actually Russian. So no wonder I didn’t fare well on my exam and was asked to drop the class. I do like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 136 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last 14 years have been quite telling only 2 horses with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The other 10 Kentucky Derby winners in last 14 years averaged a last race CSI of 106.5. So if you are going to bet on a 100 or less CSI horse you want to
get rewarded with juicy odds.
Since 1955 only 1 horse (Iron Leige in 1957, Historical reference, Ike is in the White House, Elvis is on the jukebox & DeSotos are on the road) finished 5th or worse in its final prep before the Derby and went on to win the Derby. This year we have 5 horses (Watch Me Go, Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Anthony’s Cross) that are looking to buck the trend.
On the same vein, last time a horse finished 3rd in its final prep before the Derby and then won was Unbridled’s victory in 1990 (historical reference: kids in East Germany were break dancing to 2 Live Crew). Uncle Mo’s last prep was his third place finish in the Wood.
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a 2yo. (Although according to the NY Times back then, Apollo’s win is suspicious in that bookmakers supposedly paid off the owner of Runnymede, the 4/5 favorite, to lose the race) Historical
reference: Chester Arthur is in the White House, Gilbert & Sulivan rule the theatres, and you were getting to work by horse drawn street-car). Midnight Interlude is unraced as a 2yo.
Only one non-US trained horse has won the Derby that was Venezuela’s Canonero II in 1971 (Historical Reference: Tricky Dick is in the White House, Jethro Tell’s Aqualung is on the transistor radio, and a Chevy Nova is in your driveway) No European trained horse
has won the Derby....since 1945 there have been 24 that have tried -- only Bold Arrangement was a runner-up (1986) Johannesburg and Castel Gandolfo were in Kentucky for the 2002 running but failed to place. Master of the Hounds is European
based.
As noted thoroughbred ownership is a tough game but if you look at the math getting a horse to the Derby isn’t like trying to win the lottery. Think about this...30,000 thoroughbred foals are born in the US each year. Let’s say half of them are colts. 20 horses line up for the
Derby so its really only 750-1 (15,000/20) shot to have a horse line up for the Derby ....adding to that there were about 130 different colts in this years class that won or placed in 2yo/3yo graded stakes to date – doing the math that’s 115-1...(of course not all horses are
equal). We may be getting back in the game at a small level, idea is buy yearling and 2yo fillies to race and then breed them.....probably looking for a bigger commitment than what we had with et al and before you ask, the answer is “No, your daughter can’t ride
the horse”. Let me know if you have interest.....
Now for this year’s Derby field
PN/PP Horse Morning Line Odds
1. Archarcharch 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal 20-1
4. Stay Thirsty 20-1
5. Decisive Moment 30-1
6. Comma To The Top 30-1
7. Pants On Fire 20-1
8. Dialed In 4-1
9. Derby Kitten 30-1
10. Twinspired 30-1
11. Master of Hounds 30-1
12. Santiva 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man 12-1
14. Shackleford 12-1
15. Midnight Interlude 10-1
16. Animal Kingdom 30-1
17. Soldat 12-1
18. Uncle Mo 9-2
19. Nehro 6-1
20. Watch Me Go 50-1
Animal Kingdom
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: Robby Albarado
CSI: 98/106/97
Graham Motion sends Animal Kingdom to the Derby this year (he also would have had Toby’s Corner to saddle)....he previously sent 2 other horses to the Derby, Chilito in ’98 and Adriano in ’08. He said of Adriano who won the Spiral Stakes (like Animal Kingdom) that “I wish I didn’t run him in the Derby...he really was a turf horse”...this is after Adriano finished in19th place....hmmmmm Animal Kingdom has top to bottom turf pedigree....also hasn’t raced on real dirt yet, only on turf and poly tracks...to quote Motion ”I’m kind of curious myself to see how he handles the dirt” .hmmmmm....maybe the Team Valor syndicate is pushing Motion, a first class trainer on the Maryland circuit, to make another decision he may regret. Animal Kingdom will benefit from a stepped up pace as the colt is a confirmed closer and there is no doubt that this horse will get the 1 1⁄4 m distance but question is “how fast” as the colt only ran the last furlong in the Spiral (nee Jim Beam) Stakes in 13+ seconds. Did have a decent work on the Churchill Downs track.....this is a horse that Marlin Perkins would send Jim down river to check out more....hmmmm
Archarcharch
Trainer: William Fires
Jockey: JK Court
CSI: 105/103/107
Let’s go through the The Locks Winning Pattern checklist....
√ The horse wins 3x and only has 1 clunker out of 6 races and that race is one run in dense fog in Arkansas... to be honest if I was running in dense fog in Arkansas on a mucky surface and then you throw in some banjos – I’d be a bit taken off my game too.
√ The horse shows some late pace. In the Arkansas Derby sported a triple digit BRIS LP figure. When looking at the horses Beyers sports the high last race figure as well as a 92 in its previous race. (Most years you’d yawn at those figures...but this year is different). Came
in about 12 1⁄2 seconds in its last. Also has a decent race run on the Churchill Downs track. Also noting the sub-1:00 work....likes the oval...
√ No history is trying to be made here. Like Arch^3 Super Saver last year’s Derby winner raced at Oaklawn Park before coming to CD. Also Smarty Jones used the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby route to Derby victory...although Smarty won with ease each race. Arch^3 has the luxury of being the same jock for its whole career only favorites Dialed In and Uncle Mo can say that.
? People have given Arch^3 the death sentence after he was placed in the 1 hole...very much an undoing of last year’s Derby fav Looking at Lucky....but Ferdinand did it at 18-1 in 1986 with a 54yo Willie Shoemaker at the helm coming from off the pace...can Jon Court, a
Derby virgin do the same?...hopefully JK can take Arch^3 back and then start picking up the pieces on the backside before taking charge on the turn and down the stretch.
Brilliant Speed Twinspired
Trainer: Tom Albertrani Michael Maker
Jockey: Joel Rosario Mike Smith
CSI: 101/107/101/100/91/101
How many of you, like me, have read William Golding’s Lord of the Flies and didn’t realize that
Samneric was, albeit twins, actually two people?? This horse(s) came a nose apart of each
other in the Blue Grass Stakes but have even more to intertwine them together. This horse(s)
has 2 wins out of 8 starts. This horse(s) have favored racing on either on turf and poly and have
raced only a combined 3 times on real dirt showing little by losing those races by a combined 51
lengths. This horse(s) ran in the Dania Beach Stakes, a turf mile race at Gulfstream Park...also
unlikely preps such as the WEBN at Turfway Park and the Hallandale Beach Stakes at
Gulfstream can be found on the Past Performances.... This horse(s) sports a turf pedigree both
halves have 300+ Tomilinson turf pedigree rankings from Dynaformer on top and a Gone West &
El Prado mare on the bottom. This horse(s) have closed from far off the pace but has also shown
that they can be in the 2nd flight.
The Brilliant Speed half did run a sub :12 coming home in the Blue Grass and shows a steady
increase in its Beyers since its last clunker at Saratoga in August (32,65,69,79,83,84,93). Maybe
Marky Mark to Twinspired’s Donnie.....
The Twinspired (even more aptly named) half of this Gemini is owned by some guys from River
Road Asset Management, a long-only fund manager in Louisville...my first thought at looking at
the alpha silks it had to be a hedgie owner....maybe it hasn’t leaked to Louisville that they can
take the same portfolio they manage, short out part of the market with some index futures, then
short some stocks they think that bite and then call themselves ‘hedge fund managers’ thus giving
them the right to charge 5x the fees + take a 20% carry. As well, by being hedgies, instead of
paying $140k for a horse like they did in Timonium last May for Twinspired they get the
opportunity to pay 10x for a horse with less talent but buy it at Keeneland July or the Saratoga
sale and then have the privilege to tell all their hedgie buddies in the Hamptons, ACK or Mustique
how much they spent.....
The lack of success on dirt is 2 much to overcome.....if you are thinking about betting on this duo,
take a minute, and think about the performance put in by the Mary-Kate and Ashley in 2004
movie New York Minute....in equine terms, its Louisville Two Minutes 5 Seconds starring Brilliant
Speed Twinspired
Comma to the Top
Trainer: Peter Miller
Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela
CSI: 103/xxx/xxx..... (xxx=didn’t have enough data)
The Kentucky Derby Class of 2011 Superlatives are in....Best Athelete (Uncle Mo), Class Clown
(Watch Me Go), Best Looking, Horse (Twinspired), Best Looking, Jockey (Anna ‘Rosie’
Napravnik, Pants on Fire jock), Least Likely to Succeed (Derby Kitten), Cutest Couple (Nick Zito
& Dialed In), BFF (JK Court and Archarcharch) and Comma to the Top won Most Likely to Make
You Say “WTF!, Where’d my horse go??”. Comma to the Top will most likely prompt the pace
and will be in the lead up to the 3/8ths pole, unfortunately the race is 10 furlongs and he will start
to fade...prompting backers to say “WTF! Where’d my horse go??” This gelding (ouch!!) is the
most prolific winner but the average winning distance for his 6 victories is 7 furlongs. A year ago
you could have bought the horse for $22,000 in Ocala and has rewarded his owners nicely with
$775,000 of earnings which puts him #4 in earnings of this field but earnings and the ability to win
this race have little correlation. Pass.
Decisive Moment
Trainer: Juan Arias
Jockey: Kerwin Clark
CSI: 110/96/94
If you have decided to wager on this horse, you have 2 instructions:
a) Do something else with your money like buy a sandwich or tickets to see Def Leppard (no j
oke, they are back, one-armed drummer and all...http://www.defleppard.com/tour/) and;
b) Undertake a Dr. Phil-esque “Life Inventory” as it is possible you have the inability to make
wise decisions....you may find out all your life decisions (career, schooling, mate,
wardrobe, drink choice, piercings) have all been wrong.
Even if you weren’t going to bet on this horse, and if you are living in your Mom’s basement with
your pet lizard named Roger, listening to NKOTB, drinking a Rob Roy, watching Manchester
United highlights while checking on your Blockbuster stock price, with your New England Patriots
#12 jersey on....you may also want to think about that Life Inventory thing.....Honestly, Decisive
Moment isn’t an awful horse, as the colt only didn’t hit board once in 8 race career...but running
style and overall class is decidedly suspect....Pass.
Derby Kitten
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: J. Castellano
CSI: Didn’t bother
Derby Kitten is a substitute for Toby’s Corner’s defection. Sorry can’t be happy about this
horse’s entry as I’m still bummed my 12-1 Christmas pony is out of the race. Not much to say
here except that the name is awful (and we won’t see the end of “Kitten” horse names as long the
Ramsey’s keep on getting a horse in the Derby) and the horse will do well on turf and poly shown
by its win in the Lexington at Keeneland. Also wouldn’t it be a lot cooler if the trainer’s name was
Mark so his passport would read Maker Mark....
Dialed In
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
CSI: 104/105/97
Trained by Nick Zito....Brooklyn-born Zito has one of those gravely voices made harsh by
shouting too much over long period of time, just like your middle school Phys Ed teacher. Zito
has won this race before (2 times), once with Go for Gin (my Uncle Ed liked this one, see below)
who won wire-to-wire on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Dialed In couldn’t be any more
different. A deeeep closer....colt spent the winter,a la P Diddy, D Wade and that guy that calls
himself the King that stiffed the ‘Bockers, in Miami although you couldn’t find him in a cabana at a
swanky crib on Star Island... he was over at Gulfstream winning the Holy Bull and the Florida
Derby. Critics were shocked when he lost (2nd by a length) an Optional Claiming race that was
written for him in March but in that race he was facing older horses that plodded along running the
first 4f and 6f in :49 and 1:13 --- no deep closer like Dialed In could gain enough ground against
those fractions. As one of the favorites, it is my job to find the chinks in the armor and you find
them in Dialed In’s Florida Derby win As a closer, you are expecting the horse to be running fast
at the end of a race but DI’s BRIS Late Pace figures for the Florida Derby was sub 100 and
actually ran the last furlong in 13+ seconds – ugh! Have to note the day earlier, R Heat
Lightening under a hand ride won the Gulfstream Oaks in a time 4/5ths of a second faster than
the boys did, fully extended, in the Florida Derby....Dialed In’s Holy Bull Stakes and March
OptClaiming race were better but not convinced I want to key Dialed In at 4-1.
Master of Hounds
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Garret Gomes
CSI: xxx/92/xxx
Master of Hounds was born and bred in Kentucky but really is an “Irish” horse....the colt is trained
by Irish trainer Aidan O’ Brien for the Tipperary-based Coolmore racing empire. Horse broke his
maiden after 4 tries at 3 different Irish tracks. So I think given the ties to Ireland and the fact that
at this point Ireland will take anything that’s given to them...we’ll call this Kingmambo colt “Irish”.
Ireland could really use the win (and the win $$) in the Derby. Right now they owe the French
and Germans and the rest of the EU €85Billion which would be the equivalent of the US
borrowing $8.5 trillion. I wouldn’t want to owe a guy like Sarkosy $5 much less $125 billion. Irish
sovereign debt is yielding 9.5%+ which is what the markets are setting as a borrowing rate for a
shaky business such as SatMex, a satellite operator in Mexico or Spectrum Brands, the guys who
sell the George Foreman grills (they still sell those things??) or counties like Lithuania and
Bulgaria. Unsolicited, I’ve sent over some ideas on deficit reduction to Bertie Ahern. One of my
idea’s for raising cash in Ireland is to sell the naming rights for its holidays....Ireland have 3 “bank
holidays” simply called June Holiday, August Holiday and October Holiday....now I think I can
raise at least €30 million per annum to start paying off some of this debt by selling the names of
the holidays and, to boot, let’s get the French or the Germans to foot the bill like
HypoVereinsbank June Holiday, Moët et Chandon August Holiday and Credit Agricole October
Holiday. I just had a brown envelope dropped on my desk and inside it says that Bertie hasn’t
been the Taoisech since 2008, according to the NY Times, the Prime Minister is now a woman
named Enda Kenny (I don’t want to be mean, but she’s not very pretty and dresses very manly).
Master of Hounds was to go to the English 2000 Guineas but trainer liked the horse’s hard fought
2nd in the UAE Derby in Dubai enough to send the colt to Louisville. But there is enough not to
like on this horse, sorry Ireland! Horse has only 1 win, hasn’t raced on American dirt, and may run
too close to the pace to be around in the last furlong.
Talking of the English 2000 Guineas.....do yourself a favor and watch a replay of that race.
Frankel is a monster horse....crushed a field of Group Stakes winners....let’s hope we see the
horse stateside for the BC Mile....
Midnight Interlude
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
CSI: xxx/xxx/xxx
When he was just getting famous, Bob Baffert’s file photo in the Daily Racing Form was him in a
baseball cap that he got at Scores, a dodgy cabaret in NY...so Baffert training a horse with a
spicy name is not unusual. Midnight Interlude is trying to buck 129 years of history and be the
first Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby after not racing as a 2yo. This horse
only broke its maiden 6 weeks ago and then went on to win a depleted Santa Anita Derby when
expected favorite Premier Pegasus and Jaycito defected. The colt registered a 95 Beyer for the
effort which is a low Beyer for a Santa Anita Derby winner for any other year except this one.
Since Santa Anita has a new surface there is not enough data on the track for me to properly
calculate a C Speed Index (you’ll see ‘xxx” when I don’t have data to calculate). Some
positives, this horse may like a wet track and has the ability to rate off the pace but there is too
many question marks about this lightly raced colt to accept low odds. With Baffert and Zito
saddling horses in the Derby this year, we have 2 of the 1990s Kentucky Derby Big 3 trainers
....only one missing is D. Wayne Lukas who used to own this race and the Triple Crown. I still
sport a pair of “D. Wayne”s (oversized Foster Grants) on Derby day but the shades as well as
DWL have seen better days.
Mucho Macho Man
Trainer: Kathy Ritvo
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
CSI: 99/101/96
This Macho Uno Florida-bred has only one showing (a troubled start at the Holy Bull Stakes) out
of the money. The equine Burt Reynolds has shown the ability in its last 2 to still be running hard
at the end of races despite being close to the pace throughout. Has already raced at 6 different
tracks and has fared well at each. His last race, a third in the Louisiana Derby is actually better
than it looks as the horse threw his shoe and was running only on 3 good feet. Horse may make
the late Glen Hughes proud. Glen Hughes, a Long Island native, was “Leatherman” for the
Village People and was partially to blame for the 1978 disco smash “Macho Man” Hughes was a
Chaminade HS grad and the likely musical inspiration of another CHS music man.
It seems as though the good Marianist Brothers at Chaminade are more apt at
mentoring musical talent than they are building a lacrosse team that can beat the West Islip
Lions. Consider.....
Nehro
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
CSI: 100/97/107
I will be honest...I’m not sure what I make of this horse. I think I like this horse but I can’t find
one good thing to say about its connections. The owner, last year, filed for bankruptcy for his
stable business stiffing not only banks but also many in the thoroughbred industry including
Keeneland, breeders, trainers, vets, horse truck drivers, winner’s circle photogs, thoroughbred
associations, lawyers, pedigree specialists. Many people in this industry don’t make a lot of
money....they do it for the love of the game and its beautiful animals so when an over extending
owner and one that has such a vast a stable as Zayat stiffs them then it is felt deeply. Zayat
ended up suing the bank that lent him the money claiming “misleading, deceptive, and predatory
practices”.....ugh! Mr. Zayat, you are a big boy, you knew what you were doing.....well.....the
horse which was “bought” for $170,000 as a weanling in November 2009. Nehro will meet the
The Locks Winning Pattern of running fast at the end of the race and we can see this with the
#s...Sports a high last race CSI of 107. Only Nehro and 3 others (ArchArchArch, Dialed In,
Mucho Macho Man) have last 2 race 90+ Beyers. Only Nehro sports last 3 race triple digit Bris
Last Pace figures. Came home in the Arkansas Derby in about 12.3 and about the same in the
Louisiana Derby. If you look at the video of this horses move in the Arkansas Derby, you
certainly see a “late kick”. Horse has raced in the money either close or far off the pace. So
there is a lot to like here but I am not going to key this horse to win because I don’t think this
horse is a “winner” not only evidenced by the horse only having 1 win (thus bucking some history
see above) but, get this, taking in the words and wisdom of Kerry Thomas, equine
psychologist...he says that Nehro hasn’t won in the last 2 races because the horse thought he
won by catching up to the leaders. “Nehro gets into a nice gear when he’s able to be where he’s
happy” ...consider in exotics.
Pants On Fire
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Anna ‘Rosie’ Napravnik
CSI: 97/94/97
Not sure the genesis of this particular horse’s name as I think the term “Pants on Fire” is used in
two different contexts....First as in “Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire” and second, “running like your pants
on fire”....the first context, I just don’t get the correlation of lying and burning trousers...so my
guess it would be the 2nd one be more apropos for a thoroughbred....but the term seems to be
outdated to me....I’m no physicist (actually don’t think I took a single science class at G-town)
but my guess is that the oxygen generated by running while your pants are on fire would only
make the fire stronger.... I think the stop-drop-and-roll is the preferred method if your pants just
happen to be on fire rather than running all crazy-like.....then again I’m no scientist. Pants on
Fire is a horse like Nehro that came out of the Louisiana Derby...actually Pants on Fire hasn’t
raced since winning by a neck over Nehro. Pants on Fire will want to race near the lead and this
maybe the horses undoing but I feel that at least one horse in the front pack is going to hang on
near the end and it may be PoF as the horse has built a good foundation by running in (7) 1mile+
dirt races since September, this is more than any other horse in the field. But am aware that the
horses CSIs are sub-par and the horse threw in a clunker in the Risen Star the same as it did in a
race at Monmouth last year when the horse couldn’t get on or near the lead. Is Pants on Fire a
quitter when he can’t get his way?? Unfortunately Kerry Thomas didn’t have a couch big enough
for Pants on Fire to find out.....
Santiva
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
CSI: 97/99/95
I liked this horse enough in March to put a futures bet on him at 30+-1 unfortunately you may
actually be able to get more than 30-1 on him on Derby day. I liked the fact that the colt, sired by
Giant’s Causeway, won the Kentucky Jockey Club (Santiva’s only win) which is a 2 turn race at
Churchill Downs and then he ran a decent race at the Fairground popping a BRIS late pace figure
of 106 in the Risen Star Stakes. Also liked the name of the horse, a reference to the
amalgamation of Sanibel and Captiva, 2 neighboring resort islands on the west coast of Florida.
But then came the Blue Grass Stakes the running line of “ bothered, lacked room” sounded like
my last trans-oceanic economy class flight. The horse finished 9th out of 12 horses (can’t blame
the poly track as the horse came in 2nd in a stakes at Keeneland last year)...and then I calculated
that he sports a sub 100 CSI in last 3 races. Reality started to set in....instead of my future bet
feeling like a day collecting sea shells on a soft sand beach beside warm gulf waters, now was
replaced by the feeling like I was on the D train in July without A/C full of sweaty Yankee fans.
Talking of the Yankees....while Derek Jeter and Mariano Riviera are entering their twilight years
as MLBers, Yankee fans are already putting ‘Mo” and “Jetes” in the Hall of Fame... I think you
have to wait a minute and take a look at the facts....Derek Jeter’s stats don’t make him a
HoFer....but everyone talks about his intangibles so that means to me I can put that smiley
motivational speaker guy, Tony Robbins in the dug out with no baseball experience and he will be
put in the HoF?? And then all those Yankee fans that call Mo the greatest reliever of all-
time....how can you be the best reliever of all time, if you are never the best reliever in any given
year...maybe he was top 2 or 3, once or twice but by calling him the “best ever” says you are
satisfied with a good but not lights out great closer (ie, Gagne 2002-2004, K-Rod 2005 2006 2008,
Armando Benitez 2001, Jason Isringhausen 2004, Billy Wagner, Tug McGraw etc etc).
Shackleford
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
CSI: 95/80/97
Shackleford ran a bullet :58 4/5s 5furlong (sub-1:00 is fast) work last Saturday....this just adds
the buzz that already exists surrounding this horse after his courageous effort in the Florida
Derby. Looking at other horses that generated a lot of buzz because their fast works before the
Derby you have mixed results when they actually ran the race....Hard Spun (2007) and Eight
Belles(2008) had :57s/:58s works both ended up runner up finishers at 10-1 and 13-1 odds
respectively. While Colonel John (2008), Old Trieste (1998) and Friesen Fire (2009) fired up
equally blazing work outs to end up 6th, 10th and 19th, respectively. Shackleford was impressive
in the Florida Derby to almost hold off on-charging Dialed In after setting a pace of :23, :46+,
1:10+. In the Derby Shackleford will be tied in with the other pace setters (Comma to the Top,
Soldat, Decisive Moment, and possibly, Uncle Mo) which is an association that may doom them
all. Much in the way Shackleford’s name sake, Charles Shackleford, former NC State and NBA
player if I remember correctly he also played in the Jelleff Summer League, was doomed by his
association with the NJ Nets (the organization is cursed). Shackleford, the hoops player, has
had a tough go of it, accused of point shaving after he left NC State including admitting to taking a
$65,000 “loan” from known gamblers, arrested on a weapons charge and then again arrested on
a prescription drug sale charge and then also accused of identity theft by saying he was former
NBA star and convicted killer (aggravated assault that lead to a death), Jayson Williams (another
NJ Net) after getting into a car accident. It seems Charles has made some bad decisions along
the way and in dire need of a Life Inventory, just a thought. Shackleford, the horse, may not be
able to decide whether to join the pace setters or not as his natural speed will force him to the
front but like in the Florida Derby his speed may not hold up....but then again maybe it will....
Soldat
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Alan Garcia
CSI: 117/104/87
Soldat has a lot of things about the colt you should like...first it is one of two horses that has two
wins at 1 1/8thm (the other is Animal Kingdom who has done the same but on poly track) also you
have to like his triple digit Beyer he recorded in January, only Uncle Mo has spiked a triple digit
Beyer speed figure. . Also may like the fact that the horse maybe a slop freak by running a huge
race in the slop at Gulfstream Park. I liked that race enough to buy a Soldat Derby future at 18-1
to act as a hedge if the weather turned up wet. But then came the Florida Derby and as they
say in England...things went pear shaped....Soldat showed very little and ended up 5th, 10+
lengths back. Soldat is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin who used to train exclusively for Sheik
Mohammed and his brother in Dubai until the rigors of life overseas and illness brought him back
to NY to open up a public stable. Soldat is a very nice horse but not sure if the Derby is the colt’s
spot. I have enough invested in him with my Derby future...may consider more if comes up wet
but right now it appears only a 30% chance of rain but maybe not enough rain to make a
difference to the track.
Stay Thirsty
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
CSI: 85/108/90
Mike Repole, owner of Stay Thirsty (and Uncle Mo too), made his money, as I think half of the
borough of Queens (including Curtis ’50 Cent’ Jackson of South Queens, David “Isn’t my contract
with the Mets up yet?” Wright of Flushing), when Glaceau (VitaminWater) sold out to Coca-Cola
for $4+ billion. So the “Stay Thirsty” name is apropos.....it also is a great ad campaign by the
Cuauhtémoc-Moctezuma Brewery Company, the brewer of Dos Equis....I’ve had some ideas of
vignettes for the Most Interesting Man in the World ads that I’ve floated up to Euro RSCG (the
brewer’s ad agency) .....my ad would include The Most Interesting Man in the World sleeping
through his stop on Metro – North, another would be him getting the wrong order at Starbucks,
next would be him at an indoor water park waiting on line for the ‘lazy river’ and finally him
opening up his electricity and cable bill. Haven’t heard back from them yet. “Stay Thirsty, my
friends”... As to the horse, very difficult to get a good read on this horse because the horse’s
Gotham Stakes was pretty impressive as the colt came off the pace against slow fractions to win
by 3+ lengths registering a BRIS Late Pace figure of 106 against a field that includes my Derby
pick, Toby’s Corner. But then followed up that race with a real clunker in the Florida Derby where
the comment line says “Through after 1⁄2” although the horse wasn’t near the contested pace.
This colt also was out-run in the BC Juvenile which was won in a run-away by his stablemate,
Uncle Mo. Like Hova, Scorcese, Rudy G and his owner, Stay Thirsty maybe is a real NY kid as
the horse hasn’t been worse than 2nd in the 4 races it’s run in NY state but can’t seem to be
competitive when he crosses state line....as the Kentucky Derby is in the Commonwealth of
Kentucky, I am going to pass.....
Twice the Appeal
Trainer: J. Bonde
Jockey: Calvin Borel
CSI: xxx/109/101
Lightening doesn’t strike twice in the same place does it? Does a Calvin Borel ridden horse
coming out of the Sunland Derby with a resume as thin as Prince William’s hair win the Derby
twice in 3 years?? From a betting standpoint, I love that Borel was picked to ride this colt as he
will attract (and burn) a lot of money on those that bet jockeys... There are actually some things
to like about this horse’s past performances including the fact when racing on real dirt has 3 wins
and 2 seconds out of 5 races, sports above average CSIs and has shown an improvement in
Beyers when racing on dirt (69,74,75,83,89) but there are also things not to like.... such as the
fact that the horse is slow...a Beyer of 89 does not win the Ky Derby also on the same card as
the Sunland Derby, Plum Pretty in the Sunland Oaks ran a full second faster even though she
was coasting on a 25 length victory ....also they thought so little of this horse that in December it
was dropped in a claiming race for a $30k tag..... I am going press fate (and death by Deep Vein
Thrombosis) and I am going re-new my vow that if this horse wins I will again don a pink woman’s
size medium, Tom Brady jersey on my next flight...heading to Sydney at the end of May...but I
am not worried – lightening won’t strike twice and this horse will not win!
Talking of Tom Brady.....as many of you know I had reliable sources out in LA swear he had
some rhinoplasty ahead the 2010 season and now he’s reportedly getting hair transplants in
Rhode Island.....TB is seemingly jinxed by Gisele and is following the career arc of Michael
Jackson who peaked before his cosmetic surgery addiction set in.
Uncle Mo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
CSI: 100/101/100
At once the heavy and rightful Derby favorite, so much so, was bet down to 1-9 in the Wood
Memorial, a $1million key Derby prep.....Uncle Mo, although I never had one, seems to be that
uncle that is several years younger than your parents, the one that buys you and your underage
buddies a six pack of Budweiser, scores you tickets to see Rush at the Nassau Coliseum, and
slips you extra Jackson so you have extra coin “to impress the ladies”. I didn’t have an Uncle
Mo, I had an Uncle Ed (actually two of them), Uncle Ed drank Beefeater martinis, drove a Sedan
DeVille and complained about the traffic. This Uncle Mo shouldn't complain about the horse
traffic in the Kentucky Derby as the horse is likely to hustle to/near the front and attempt to carry
its speed and ability around the track.....unfortunately, there are going to be other horses that
want to run on the front end too which will spell doom for Uncle Mo in the last furlong. However,
this horse may be that talented to pick up a piece in this race but at 9/2, I need to look elsewhere.
Watch Me Go
Trainer: Kathleen O'Connell
Jockey: Luis Garcia
CSI: 95/100/96
WMG is one of at least seven home-breds that are in the race which is always a good story.
WMG is out of $2,500 sire also owned by WMG’s owner. Got into the Derby by virtue of its
unlikely win in the Tampa Bay Derby. There is not much here that tells me the horse has a
shot.....Watch Me Go bet on another horse...Pass.....
Now for The Locks.....
$20 Win: Archarcharch
$1 Exacta Saver: All over Archarcharch
$8 Win/Place/Show: Shackleford
$2 Exacta Box: Archarcharch, Nehro, Dialed In, Shackleford
$1 Trifecta Box: Archarcharch, Nehro, Dialed In, Shackleford
$20 + $19 + $24 + $24 + $24
I already have a $20 Future bet on Santiva at 30-1 and a $5 Future bet on Soldat at 18-1....so
those wanting to hedge for a wet track may want Soldat in their mixes.
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