Derby Preps (the Wood. the Illinois Derby and the Santa Anita Derby)) - the Locks Picks the Winners

Last year, I loved the horse Toby's Corner as my early Derby pick and that pick was validated with a Wood Memorial Stakes win over then odds-on pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo.  


This year, we may have a similar result...Todd Pletcher brings in a heavy favorite, Gemologist, to the Wood and will need to face off against some horses that have been running at Aqueduct this winter.  Gemologist has a lot to like from a Derby contender standpoint including having 2 wins over 2 turns at Churchill Downs but the colt may have his hands full today.  Alpha could be Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai's best Derby prospect - the Derby is one of the only global top tier races that has eluded the Sheikh.  Alpha has won two 2-turn stakes races at Aqueduct this winter and comes out one of the most "key" races the BC Juvenile.  The Lumber Guy is a potential monster horse but will likely be short in this race.  Street Life also has two 2-turn wins at Aqueduct this winter and will set up nicely if Gemologist pushed up front by Lumber Guy.  My Adonis has been placing in good races and should be played in exotics today.



◎  #5 Street Life            4/1
○  #1  Alpha                     5/2
▲ #6 Gemologist           8/5
△ #3 My Adonis             8/1

$15 Win #5

$1 exacta all/#5

$1 trifecta 5,1,6,3


Post Mortem:  Gemologist/Alpha gamely battled down the stretch but didn't cash a ticket. 
Bet $46. Won $0.  Net ($46)

Illinois Derby will be a full field of 14 horses and features another Todd Pletcher horse coming in as favorite but My Entourage is a lot less accomplished.  A couple of interesting value plays, including Fastestwhogetspaid at 30-1 who has already a 2-turn win at Hawthorne.  Done Talking 20-1 is a horse I thought could be a Derby contender but put in a real dull effort in March after a nice race in the Remsen last November, but colt has trained well since that last race.  10-1 Morgan's Guerrilla comes off a 2-turn maiden in Aqueduct but has great pedigree. Currency Swap is a horse I bet and won at 10-1 on as a maiden back in August at Saratoga - always like to play horses that have rewarded me in the past.

◎  #13 Done Talking       20/1

○  #4 Currency Swap    4/1

▲ #9 Fastestwhogetspaid 30/1

△ #12 Morgan's Guerilla  10/1

$15 Win #13

$1 exacta all/13

$1 exacta 13, 4, 9,12

$1 trifecta 13, 4, 9, 12

Post Mortem:  Done Talking comes from the clouds going against slow fractions to win.  Morgan's Guerrilla took 2nd.  Hit the win and exacta. 


Bet $64  Won $296.60  Net $232.60.


Santa Anita Derby also being run out on the Left Coast...Creative Cause is the horse to beat after coming out of the San Felipe but at 6/5 may want to look at others for value.  Liaison may swing luck back to Bob Baffert....Baffert has had a string of bad luck including losing Fed Biz a horse he tabbed early as Derby horse to injury, then going to Dubai suffering a heart attack a few days before his The Factor and Game On Dude ran poorly on the Meydan track.  BB seems to be back in decent health and has three horses in today's Santa Anita.  Liaison, the colt, has had some poor luck while unseating its rider in the stretch 2 races back but maybe able to bounce back form that and a 4th in the San Felipe to contend.  Holy Candy only has a maiden victory but may also be ready to come off the pace for a piece of the pie.  I'll Have Another who is out of an Arch dame has only one out of the money blemish and thats on a trip to the Right Coast.  Midnight Transfer may not be a 9f horse but may hit the top 3.



◎  #4 I'll Have Another 5/2
○  #1 Creative Cause   6/5
▲ #3 Holy Candy 8-1
△ #2 Liaison 8-1


$10 Win #4
$1 exacta all/4
$1 exacta 4, 1, 3,2
$1 trifecta 4, 1, 3, 2

Post Mortem:
I'll Have Another held off Creative Cause.  Hit the win and the exacta
Bet $54   Win $61.60  Net $7.60

Good Luck.....less than a month to the Derby!!