Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) - The Locks Picks the Winners

Sunday is Christmas and Santa will be bringing all good little boys and girls presents.  Over Christmas Eve night it will be already Christmas in Nakayama, Japan which is the site of the Japanese Grand Prix which is almost more power packed than the Japan Cup.   Orfevre (オルフェーヴル), Hiruno D'Amour, Earnestly (アーネストリー) are added from the Japan Cup field to round out the entries.   Orvevre hasn't raced since capturing the Japanese Triple Crown.  Hiruno D'Amour is back in Japan after racing in the L'Arc and Earnestly after winning a couple of graded stakes over the summer is back from a lack-luster Tenno Sho.  


So Christmas will be celebrated not only with Santa-san and eating Kentucky Fried Chicken but with some high quality horse racing. 


The Locks are....


I am going to take a stand against the favorite 2-1 Orvevre, the winner of the Japanese Triple Crown.  Orvevre has yet to race against older horses.  And the 3yos that last raced in the Japan Cup didn't fare very well. Win Variation (ウインバリアシオン ) could only manage a 5th place showing in the Japan Cup after growing tired in the stretch.  Win Variation probably is the 2nd best 3yo this year with place showings behind Orvevre in the Japanese Derby and Japanese St. Leger.  


Tosen Jordan is the winner of the Tenno Sho winner also was runner up in the Japan Cup.   Has 3 wins out of 4 tries on the Nakayama course...only loss was last year in this same race...but last year set pace and tired in stretch...probably wont repeat strategy this year.


Buena Vista is coming off victory in the Japan Cup and is such a consistent horse ,17 1st or 2nd place showings out of 22 tries including a 2nd in this race in last 2 years.


Hiruno D'Amour is a horse that is capable of winning this race and at 40-1, I give it a shot.  Has a 2nd place finish as 6th favorite in a Grade 1 at Nakayama before.   Has had time coming back from France and running in the L'Arc to be fit for this race.


 Victoire Pisa also is capable of winning this race....actually any race in the world after winning the Dubai World Cup but fitness is in question as seen by poor showing in Japan Cup.  But can't get past fact that has raced 4 times at Nakayama and has won 4 times....including winning this race last year.  


◎ Tosen Jordanトーセンジョーダン 16-1 
○ Buena Vista ブエナビスタ  4.3-1
▲Hiruno D'Amourヒルノダムール 41-1
△ Victoire Pisaヴィクトワールピサ 12.6-1


Lets win and exacta saver on Tosen Jordan.
Lets box the 4 horse in exactas and trifectas


Good luck....and most of all Merry Christmas!!!

Hong Kong International Races day - The Locks Picks the Winners

Sunday is Hong Kong International Races day....a mini-Breeder's Cup-esque day of races.  There are 4 G1 races at Sha Tin featuring some of the world's best  

The Hong Kong Vase goes 1 1/2m...The Locks likes Dunaden, the winner of the Melbourne Cup at 8-1.  Redwood has raced consistently amongst top competition all over the world.  Trailblazer only has 1 win but did just place 4th in the Japan Cup.  Thumb's Up just won in graded stakes company at Sha Tin - but would hope for better odds...if Camponolgist, an Italian racing star goes off better odds slot the paisan in instead of the local horse.

香港　Vase 2400m
5 ◎ Dunaden 8 -1 odds
8 ○ Redwood　１０
1 ▲ Trailblazer　１０
9 △ Thumb's Up　８


Sprint is a 6 furlong featuring 14 runners.  Little Bridge has raced exclusively at ShaTin and has never been out of money going 6f.  Rocket Man from Singapore is winning machine 18 wins out of 23 tries...has won also in Dubai and Sha Tin..only  out of money start came in its only appearance in Japan.  Curran Chan has won last 4 races all graded.  Lucky Nine has 8 out of 11 in the money finishes including winning at 6f at Sha Tin.


香港　Sprint 1200m
6 ◎ Little Bridge 10 
１ ○ Rocket Man 4
１４ ▲ Curran Chan　７
４ △ Lucky Nine 4


In the Mile, the Locks likes Cityscape has 2 graded wins this year going 1 mile - 12 out of 15 in the money finishes.  Sahpresa was 3rd in this race last year but comes in race with better form due to a successful 2011.  Destined for Glory won going a mile at Sha Tin recently beating top HK horse, Ambitious Dragon.  Apapane beat Japan Cup winner, Buena Vista, in a mile race this summer. 


香港　Mile　１６００m
1 ◎　Cityscape 12
13 ○ Sahpresa 7
8 ▲ Destined For Glory 11
14 △ Apapane 20


In the HK Cup, the Locks likes Ambitious Dragon.  AD since last October has 8 wins in 10 tries including 2 at 2000m.  Byword is a horse I liked in BC Mile but disappointed...but has a great record this year including a 10f win over Cirrus des Aigles.  CdA hasn't been out of money in 2011 including winning British Champion Stakes. California Memory 


香港 Cup 2000m
2 ◎　Ambitious Dragon 2
3 ○ Byword 7
1 ▲ Cirrus des Aigles 2
6 △ California Memory 10


In betting would box exactas and trifectas and make win bets on top 2.


Good luck!!

2011 Japan Cup Dirt - The Locks Picks the Winners

Last week was the Japan Cup, this weekend is the Japan Cup Dirt which is another Grade 1 race worth over $2 million.  Race is run at the Hanshin race track near Osaka going 1 1/8m (1800m). Although most JRA races are run on the turf, there are still some very good horses in this race. Including the runner -up in the Dubai World Cup and the winner of this race last year in Transcend.  Transcend rebounded well from that race with 1 win and 1 second since coming back from the UAE. Transcend hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 8 races.  Espoir City won this race in 2009 and has competed in the BC Classic. EC loves the distance with 6 wins and 1 second in 7 races and likes Hanshin with a perfect 2 for 2 record on the track.  Transcend and Espoir City will be the top 2 favorites and they will be difficult to overlook.  However, will need to consider others as well as pace will be a definite factor in the race.  


Tosho Freak will set the pace with Transcend and Espoir City wanting to chase the pace.  Depending on how fast Tosho Freak will go will set the fate for Transcend and Espoir City.  If setting too fast fractions then look for horses coming off the pace like Nihonpiro Ours  or Miracle Legend.  Nihonpiro Ours has not been out of the money in its 13 race career including 2 wins on the Hanshin dirt.   Had the fastest last 3 f time in the key Miyako Stakes in last race.  Miracle Legend will come off the pace and will benefit from fast fractions from the leaders.  Miracle Legend has 8 wins in its 15 race career including winning last 3 all at 1800m...actually all of this 4yo fillies wins have come at 1800m.   


The Locks are:


◎ #12 Nihonpiro Ours ニホンピロアワーズ
○  #11 Miracle Legend ミラクルレジェンド
▲ #16 Transcend トランセンド
△ #6 Espoir City エスポワールシチー


$1 Exacta #12 over all

$1 Trifecta Box 12.11.16.6