Last year, the Locks took a swing for the fences with a 31-1 shot and struck out. It wasn’t Carlos Beltran striking out in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS with the bat still on his shoulder – more like Giants punter Sean Landetta whiffing on a punt at Soldier Field. Indeed, 11 out of 15 of the Locks since 2008 finished in the trifecta but only 3 of the last 15 (20.00%) have actually won the Derby – yes better than a dart board (5.22%) but not good enough. Consider also that the odds for The Locks’ Derby winners averaged only 4.17-1 – so if you bet $10 win ticket on the Locks over these last 15 years - $150 bet – payout $71.7. ROI = -52.2% . The Locks has the winner this year and this win may get the Locks back in the black – look for the Locks to be back into positive ROI by 6:47 EDT on May 6th. Although this year's race features more scratches than Run DMC's "Jam Master Jay" - the key Locks are all in the field and set to go!
Past Locks:
2022: Tiz the Bomb – placed 9th
– odds: 31.00-1
2021: Essential Quality – 3rd *–
2.90-1
2020: Tiz the Law –2nd -- odds:
.70-1
2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible – finish 3rd –
odds: 7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st –
odds: 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th -
11.80-1
2015: Firing Line -- 2nd –
9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd –
8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st –
5.40-1
2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th –
14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch – 15th –
12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd –
11.70 -1
2009: Musket Man – 3rd –
19.00-1
2008: Big Brown – 1st –
2.40-1
The Locks is going to continue with the
formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in
their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without
good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.
Runners: Looking for those horses that are
still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for horses that are not
trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby
preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since
1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and
has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Since 1993, there
was only Giacamo and Rich Strike that had come in with only 1 win but those 2
unlikely winners rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1 and 81-1,
respectively. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or
2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby
with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1). Accepting low odds on those with 1
or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.
Runners
As a student of
the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that
"pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace
handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is
anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young
from a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess
Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race
unfolds, not just how the race ends, is important. To determine how the Derby
will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze
splits and positions at those splits.
We have seen seismic
shifts in how the Derby has been run and won in the past 9
years. From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after
1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1
lengths. During that same period, the median finishing position of
Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the
1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data,
there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less
than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
In the 8 years between 2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the
Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2
mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near
lead. The 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses
finishing first by those wiring the field. It also hasn’t been due
to slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong splits have
averaged 46 2/5 and 1:11 1/5 respectively.
Last year with no Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from more than 17
lengths back. Do we see the shift back those
that come off pace OR those that may be on or near lead? The Locks will be looking at a horse coming not
too far off pace.
Although in
looking to fill your exotics since 2010,
- 2nd place horses have been
(on average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8 lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths
off the lead.
- 3rd place
horses: ½ mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1
mile, 3 lengths off the lead.
Armed with those
facts – will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the
winner and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys
history and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader
of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a
semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in
the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class.
The history of the
Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather
Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the
Lewis & Clark Expedition fame. Merriweather Clark wasn’t going
to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather
Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby
(which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French
pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to
Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs
and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
The Locks does like
to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 148 years of data already
accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and
history to consider when wagering:
Last-race-Locks
Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 27 years have been quite telling-- only
3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99
that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is
sole exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 LSI.
There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded
the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen
Kentucky Derby winners in last 18 years averaged a last race LSI of
105+. Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs is only Two Phil’s.
In the same 27
year period, only Mine that Bird and Rich Strike had won the Derby after
failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two
prep races. This year, the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2
races: Forte, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s,
Verifying.
Homebreds have
been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 19 and 5 out of the last
12 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them. In
the 2023 Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Lord Miles, Hit Show, Disarm
are all homebreds.
Derby horses names
starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very
successful with a record of 10 wins out of 200 starters (5.00%). Verifying
and Kingsbarns are looking to change
that trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful
winning at a 11.5% clip. Angel of Empire and Jace’s Road are hoping for
some luck in its name.
Angel of Empire
(Pennsylvania), Derma Sotogake (Japan), Continuar (Japan), Mandarin Hero (Japan) are the only
non-Kentucky bred Derby starters. Pennsylvania-breds are a solid 14:2-1-1
with Smarty Jones (2004) and Lil E. Tee (1992) as Derby winners. The only other
Japanese bred starters were Master Fencer in 2019 who finished a respectable 6th
and Crown Pride (2022) who finished 13th.
Since 1914, no
Derby winner has broke its maiden at Los Alamos (Practical Move), Horseshoe Indianapolis
(Angel of Empire), Colonial Downs (Two Phil’s), Oaklawn Park (Sun Thunder), Elis
Park (Jace’s Road) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby winner to win its
maiden on foreign soil – Derma Sotogake and Continuar are attempting to be
other foreign trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has
not been a Kentucky Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden
at Churchill Downs – Rocket Can and Confidence Game broke their
maidens under the Twin Spires.
Two-thirds of Derby
winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or
second start including 19 out of the last 22 Derby winners. These
entries took longer to break their maidens: Practical Move (won on 5th
try as a maiden), Derma Sotogake (4th try), Rocket Can (3rd
try), Reincarnate (4th try), Skinner (4th try).
9 out of the last
12 Derby winners have come into the race off a win in their last prep – this
bodes well for: Confidence Game (Rebel), Kingsbarns (Louisiana Derby), Derma
Sotogake (UAE Derby), Lord Miles (Wood Memorial), Two Phil’s (JR Steaks), Tapit
Trice (Blue Grass), Angel of Empire (Arkansas Derby), Practical Move (Santa
Anita Derby), Forte (Florida Derby).
In 2019 the streak
of favorites winning the Derby ended after having a run of 6 which was the
longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history. This comes after a period
from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we are on
a streak of 3 non-favorites winning the Derby.
Since 1952, no
Derby winner, has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the
Derby. Raise Cain came in 5th
in the Blue Grass last race.
Since 1979, only 2
Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012,
Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby
mount. Ryusei Sakai (Continuar), Juan Hernandez (Skinner) and Jareth
Loveberry (Two Phil’s) are Derby rookies this year.
Since 1949, there
have been 6 morning line odds-on favorites (less than 1-1), of these 6 only
Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle Slew (1977) have won the Derby, the other 4
(Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure, Tiz the Law and Nashua) all came in 2nd.
Rocket Can and Sun
Thunder is out of sire Into Mischief which has produced 2 Derby winners.
1 Hit Show 30-1
Owner: Gary & Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Pedigree: Candy
Ride-Actress, by Tapit
Record: 5:3-1-0
LSI: 101-99-101
In a previous edition of the Locks, we
found out that Gary and Mary West made their fortune from a telecommunications
company which started in their garage in Omaha, Nebraska and other famous
Omahans other than Warren Buffet are Marlon Brando, Henry & Peter Fonda,
the guy “Oz” from American Pie, Fred Astaire, Malcolm X, Wade Boggs, Nick
Nolte, Gabrielle Union and 70’s era song-writer Paul Williams. Paul Williams beyond being a prolific
song-writer found himself in some iconic movies such as Smokey and the
Bandit where he played Little Enos Burdette. If you haven’t seen recently, despite some
inexplicable plot twists, S&theB still holds up – from hit movie to Hit
Show. Hit Show has a solid chance in
hitting the board in the Derby at a price (30-1), a colt with continually improving
performances, hasn’t done anything wrong on the track (only semi-clunker is
after a bobbled start), a pedigree that can with the Derby, along with Angel of
Empire, Mandarin Hero and Derma Sotogake, only horse in field to be 1st/2nd
in 2 9+ furlong races. Strides are shorter than average in Derby
field but more efficient than average.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
2 Verifying 15-1
Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith & Tabor
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Pedigree: Justify-Diva
Delite, by Repent
Record: 6:2-2-0
LSI: 108-99-100
Verifying is owned by the Coolmore “Lads”
who run one of the biggest horse racing operations in the world based out of
Tipperary Ireland. The operation has no
less than 60 stallions, hundreds of race horses, and bands of the highest
quality broodmares in the world. Verifying is sired by Triple Crown winner
Justify who is a Coolmore owned sire. Its amazing that it will only be Brad Cox’s
third year of walking over a Derby horse as he already has a Derby win and a 3rd
to his name and is considered one of the top US trainers – saddling 27% winners
(20%+ is considered very very good).
Verifying with early speed may be the run style that will win this
year. Lot of smart people like
Verifying this year with good reason but the Locks will be looking at others –
as Verifying has found traffic issues in 2 of the 3 races running in 10+ horse
fields and that Verifying stride efficiency took a drop from 95% to 93% when
stretching from 8 to 9 furlongs. The Lads will have to be satisfied with having
a Classic Winner not in the US but perhaps with Auguste Rodin who goes to the
2000 Guineas as a favorite.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
3 Two Phil’s 12-1
Owner: Patricia’s Hope & Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Pedigree: Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters
Record: 8:4-1-1
LSI: 101-94-111
"My father is Phillip and my friend
Jerry La Sala who got us started, his father's name is also Phil. They're both
in their 80s and they're both characters," owner Phillip Sagan said.about his
Derby entrant. Unfortunately, someone along
the way confused the possessive with the plural so the name is Two Phil’s not
Two Phils. Not the first time (nor will
it be the last) a Derby runner has had poor grammar/spelling – consider American
Pharoah should have been really spelled American Pharaoh – ooops!
Two Phil’s is a speed figure darling –
consider that TP has the highest Beyer (101), highest last race LSI (111),
highest Brisnet (107), lowest Ragozin sheet (5”). If you think about the fact that TP has won going 2 turns at Churchill
Down and has 4 wins at 4 different race tracks.
TP looks like a legit contender.
Detractors will have you consider:
- 35yo jockey, Jareth Loveberry, is making his unlikely Derby debut after spending much of his career at the defunct Great Lakes Downs. Yes, that is his real name and No, he wasn't in any of the movies that they used to show on Cinemax after 11pm.
-
The high
speed figs and large jump in figures from previous race would make TP susceptible
to “bounce”.
Two Phil’s’s
chances are still promising and the Locks will keep this colt near the top of
the list despite the grammatical error in its name.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
4 Confidence Game 20-1
Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Pedigree: Candy
Ride-Eblouissante, by Bernardini
Record: 7:3-1-2
LSI: 105-96-104
Confidence Game is owned by a syndicate
run by Kirk Godby of Fort Worth Texas. Odds
in Vegas shortened on this horse over the last 2 weeks thus many calling it the
“wiseguy pick” for the Derby. There are
few things to like:
- 6 for 7 in the money starts.
-
A win
going 2 turns at Churchill Downs
-
An E/P
running style that may be the preferred style this year
However,
there are detractors that the ‘wiseguy’’s may have overlooked:
-
No
starts at distance further than 8.5 furlongs – only horse in field without a 9
furlong start.
-
BrisNet
Late Pace figures are sub 90 in all starts.
-
Sub-par
BrisNet Speed Figures including one of the lowest Prime Power rating.
-
Last
race stride shortening ranks in the bottom 5 of the field
-
71 day
lay-off – no Derby winner since they’ve kept complete records in 1929 has had a
lay-off longer than 49 days
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
5 Tapit Trice 5-1
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm & Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Tapit-Danzatrice,
by Dunkirk
Record: 5:4-0-1
LSI: 103-99-100
Knock Three Times (ie Tapit Trice) was a
1970s hit by Tony Orlando and Dawn featuring the lyrics:
I can hear your music playing
I can feel your body swaying
One floor below me
You don't even know me, I love you
Oh, my darling, knock three time
On the ceiling if you want me
Twice on the pipe
If the answer is no
I don’t believe that Tapit Trice’s owner 68yo
Mandy Pope uses this precursor to Tinder to secure dates at her Whisper Hill
Farms but she may be humming the tune in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Mandy is known in the horse racing circles by
some incredible prices she’s paid for broodmare prospects – including $9.5m for
Songbird and a record $10 million for Harve de Grace who unfortunately recently
succumbed after a difficult foaling. Tapit
Trice himself was a $1.3 million Keeneland September yearling sale purchase. It is very possible that purchase price may seem paltry if Tapit Trice wins the
Derby which TT has an excellent chance in doing. Let’s examine:
- - TT has the longest
stride in the whole Derby field with a stride length of 26.59 – only Forte
(26.12) and Practical Move (26.01) have last race stride lengths greater than
26 feet.
- - TT was able to maintain
his long stride across the full 9 furlongs in the Blue Grass with a 95.5%
stride efficiency
- - Since year 2000, gray
horses have finished in a superfecta finish (top 4) in 28% of the entries -
better than the expected value of 20%.
- -Tapit Trice pink
silks won’t get lost in the crowd but since 1908 – the color pink has been a
feature on the Derby’s winning silks - 6 times.
- - Discounting first race –
Tapit Trice is a perfect 4 for 4 on the track including winning the Blue Grass
Stakes.
- - Speed figures fits for
a Derby winner: last race Brisnet >100+, last 3 races late pace Brisnet
>100+, 100+ LSIs, decent Rag figures.
- - TT at least from a
figures stand point are improving and are more consistent than his main rivals.
- - Post position 5 has
yielded the most Derby wins since 1930 when starting gates first were used and
has the best average finish of all post positions
- - Only detractor will be
whether TT’s typical slow starts will be a detriment or allow Luis Saez to be
put in a good position to lay down a stretch run.
For all this TT is the 2023
Kentucky Derby Lock.
TT
reminds the Locks very much like the 2021 Derby Lock and Champion 3yo Essential
Quality. Essential Quality finished 4th
but Trakus (RIP) data showed that EQ was
actually the best horse on the day. For
TT being a Lock we are looking for actual victory rather than a moral victory.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒
6 Kingsbarns 12-1
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Uncle
Mo-Lady Tapit, by Tapit
Record: 3:3-0-0
LSI: 100-109-98
Lets look at Kingsbarns:
- Jockey Jose Ortiz hasn’t won the Run for the Roses but has 4 top
5 finishes in 7 starts including 4th in 2022 on 35.5-1
Simplification.
- Unraced as a 2yo – the stats are somewhat stacked against
Kingsbarns. Apollo, who won the 1882
Kentucky Derby,was the only Derby winner
without racing as a 2-year-old for 136 years until Justify broke through
in 2018. The record of horses in the
Derby without a race at 2 since 1937 is 71:1-3-5. Since Justify won, the average finish for a
Derby runner who hadn’t raced as a 2yo is 14th.
- A Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since
Grindstone did so in 1996 (historical reference: Alanis Morisette’s You Oughta Know was on the
radio AND Tin Cup[1] was in the theaters)
- Kingsbarns has one of the lowest stride efficiencies in the
field losing 11% of stride length in last measured race.
- The stakes race for older horses on the Louisiana Derby card was
run significantly faster than Kingsbarns’.
In coming out of the 6 hole, Jose will have only one choice in
hustling Kingsbarns to the lead and hope that he can ease the pace before
hitting the line for the first time. In
the end, the Locks doesn’t expect Kingsbarns to be in the mix in the end.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
7 Reincarnate 50-1
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables et al;
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Good Magic-Allanah, by Scat Daddy
Record: 7:2-3-2
LSI: 112-101-99
This ownership group who self-appointed
themselves the Avengers – insert groan here – paid $775k for this colt. This horse has Tim Yakteen named as trainer. He
is essentially thought to be a caretaker for Bob Baffert who is on a two-year
ban that Churchill Downs had placed on Baffert after Medina Spirit tested
positive for a legal medication, but not legal on race day, after winning the
2021 Derby. Speed figures are not up to par with the others despite having
stride efficiency of 96%+. The biggest asset here is the jockey,
Johnny V is credited with 3 Derby wins and 2 2nds in 24 career mounts.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
8 Mage 15-1
Owner: OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing &
CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Pedigree: Good Magic-Puca, by Big Brown
Record: 3:1-1-0
LSI: 103-94-101
Ramiro Restrepo – a Miami-based club
promoter turned bloodstock agent has his first Derby horse. Mage could be a
very good 3yo after an impressive maiden race and then giving up the lead late
in the Florida Derby for a runner-up finish.
The Derby could be a ‘bridge too far’ at this point of career. Over 107 years of history only 3 have won the
Derby with only 3 prior starts: Justify
2018, Big Brown 2008, Regret 1915. In
the last 3 years, there were 7 horses that had only 3 prior starts that ran in
Derby that resulted in an average finish of 13th. Further, of the 71 horses from 1937 that
started in the Kentucky Derby but did not race at the age of 2 only Justify
won. Similarly, in the last 3 years,
there were 8 horses that didn’t race as a 2yo that ran in the Derby that
resulted in an average finish of 14th. Mage already a shorter striding colt than most
of the field also saw his stride shorten by 12%+ during the Florida Derby.
The Locks will pass on Mage but we might
see this one come back and win some stakes this year.
Speaking of a Bridge Too Far – the movie
adaption has arguably the greatest cast in movie history, Connery, Caine,
Hopkins, Redford, Jimmy Caan, Gene Hackman, Laurence Oliver and John
Ratzenberger (yes, Cliff Clavin).
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
9 Skinner 20-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Pedigree: Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon
Record: 6:1-0-3
LSI: 111-96-102
Skinner is a bit interesting one to consider
on the surface. Skinner is a West Coast closer – horses that have been able to
see some level of success coming far off the pace on the West Coast speed
favoring tracks. Things that are to be
liked on this one:
-
High
priced 2yo
-
A
pedigree that can win the Derby – sire that came in 3rd in the Derby
from a mare from a sire that has produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
-
100+
late pace Brisnet figures in last 2 races.
-
Very
good Ragozin Sheet figs.
-
Solid
speed figures that are just slightly below what the Locks likes to see in a
Derby winner.
But
after skinning the banana – one may slip on the peel if putting Skinner on
top. Consider:
-
John
Sherriffs replaced 3 time Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza with JJ Hernandez
a Derby rookie. Granted JJ Hernandez is
a talented young jockey who is at top of the Santa Anita jockey colony but the
Derby is unlike any other race in the US and experience would help.
-
Despite
high late pace Brisnet figures – the raw come home time in the Santa Anita
Derby at 13+ seconds is less impressive.
-
The 86%
last race stride efficiency is the lowest in the field.
-
Last
winner out of the 9 hole was Riva Ridge in 1972.
It is
possible this one hits the board but am looking elsewhere.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
10 Practical Move 10-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., Leslie Amestoy & Roger Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Pedigree: Practical
Joke-Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex
Record: 7:4-1-2
LSI: 111-100-103
Owner Jean Pierre Amestoy an Albuquerque,
New Mexico denizen is more accustomed to winning quarter-horse races than G1
thoroughbred stakes but will have one of the favorites in the Derby. This one has a lot to like – 7 for 7 in the
money races, last 2 race 100+ BrisNet figures, last 2 race 100+ late-pace
figures, and is coming in on a 3 stakes race win streak. Question is whether his breeding will be his
undoing – high quality bloodlines but a sire whose progeny has the lowest
average winning distance in the field and the mare was a middle distance turf
horse. There is empirical evidence of
pedigree impacting stamina found in the GPS data for the Santa Anita Derby –
out of all the horses in the Derby field – Practical Move has the most
inefficient stride – losing almost 12.5% in stride length during the Santa
Anita Derby – the average shortening of
stride in last prep race in the Derby field was 7%.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
11 Disarm 30-1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Gun Runner-Easy Tap, by Tapit
Record: 5:1-2-2
LSI: 104-94-102
Owner of Disarm – the Winchell family made their money through
their Winchell Donuts and then Denny’s –its important to note that the winner
of the Derby could afford to buy 167,400,000 calories worth of Grand Slam
Breakfasts.
Other facts that may be more pertinent to probability of Disarm’s success
at the Derby:
-
Despite Rich Strike winning the
Derby with only 1 win to its name – Derby runners with only 1 win don’t usually
see success at the Derby
-
Top notch pedigree.
-
Solid stride efficiency of 95% while
coming in 3rd in the Lexington
-
Jockey Joel Rosario is a Derby
winner and has 7 Top 5 finishes in 11 Derbies.
-
Trainer Steve Asmussen sits atop
the list of most Derby starts without a win but has seen success with last year’s
runner-up Epicenter.
There are others in the field
with similar running style that are more accomplished and faster – Pass.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
12 Jace’s Road 15-1
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Pedigree: Quality Road-Out Post, by Silver Deputy
Record: 6:2-0-2
LSI: 98-88-92
Jace’s Road is Brad Cox’s 4th string but did make the
field which is a feat in itself. High
priced yearling with a solid pedigree. Jockey Florent Geroux when teamed up
with Brad Cox over the last 60 days has an impressive 26% strike rate. Has two races going 2 turns at Churchill
Downs. Could be part of the early pace scenario. Slow speed figures (slowest horse in field
according to Beyers,Rag sheets, TimeForm) and inconsistency in performances
spell out that this colt will not finish in the top half.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
13 Sun Thunder 30-1
Owner: R. T Racing Stable & Cypress Creek Equine
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Pedigree: Into Mischief-Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro
Record: 6:1-1-1
LSI: 96-89-96
Sun Thunder is owned in part by medical
doctor Ramon Tallaj’s RT Racing Stable – the other owner Kevin Moody may need
medical attention if this horse who will be expected to come from back of the
pack miraculously wins the race. Despite
a regal pedigree and a high price tag as a weanling, it is improbable that Sun
Thunder will win the Derby – low speed figures (all Beyers sub-90, all Brisnet
sub 100), only has 1 win to date, threw in 2 clunkers in last 2 races, a
running style that may leave Sun Thunder too much to do in the stretch. Also for followers of Colorstrology will note
that the March 12 foal date suggests the color Apricot to be a lucky color which
the blue and green silks betray. Given
these factors, Sun Thunder is this year’s New-England-Patriots-Women’s-Size-Medium-Tom-Brady-Jersey
selection.[2]
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
14 Angel of Empire 8-1
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Pedigree: Classic
Empire-Armony’s Angel, by To Honor and Serve
Record: 6:4-1-0
LSI: 106-97-104
Angel of Empire owner Dennis Albaugh made
his money in agrochemicals (aka pesticides) and is known in some circles as the
King of Crop Protection – it’s a big business as he was Iowa’s first
billionaire.
Lot to like about this Pennsylvania-bred
colt:
-
Jockey
Flavien Prat is a Derby winner and out of 5 tries in the Derby has 4 in-the-money
finishes.
-
When trainer
Brad Cox teams up with Flavien Prat – they have a 35% win and 60% in-the-money
strike rate.
-
Comments
from Brad Cox suggest that AofE is his best hope for a Derby winner.
-
Last
race stride efficiency is highest in the field of 98%.
-
Speed
figures are in range for a Derby winner and improving – solid LSIs, Rag sheet,
Brisnet, last pace Brisnet – only Beyers are off-par.
-
Put line
through AofE’s lone turf start has not done anything wrong on the track.
-
4 overall
wins including 2 – 9 furlong wins and winning at 3 different tracks
The only
hold back on making Angel of Empire the Derby Lock is the expected pace. Angel of Empire may need a :46/47 – 1:10/1:11
pace to run at to win. The Locks doesn’t
see the pace unfolding that way but there is strong expectation will be in the
mix in the final furlong.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
15 Forte 3-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pedigree: Violence-Queen
Caroline, by Blame
Record (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd):
7:6-0-0
LSI (Locks Speed Index last 3 races): 99-101-102
Despite the fact that sale of Queens native,
Mike Repole’s Smartwater, Vitaminwater and BodyArmour to Coca-Cola and Pirate
Booty to B&G Foods yielded billions in proceeds Repole Stable has made judicious investments
into the horse racing industry. Although
there have been some high priced purchases, most of the yearlings Repole Stable
has purchased are at a cost between $100,000 and $250,000 – a mere pittance
compared to what the Coolmore Lads and Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin may spend on
horses. Included in those purchases have
been Uncle Mo – purchased for $220,000 but went on to become the Derby favorite
only to be scratched the day before with a gastrointestinal infection – now Uncle
Mo is one of the top US sires demanding nearly its yearling price for each mare
cover. Also consider that Forte who
will be this year’s Derby favorite only cost $110,000 at auction as a yearling
-- there is so much to like about the Kentucky Derby favorite:
-
Most
wins (6) in the field across 4 different race tracks including 4 G1 wins.
-
Top
jockey Irad Ortiz rides
-
Top
trainer Todd Pletcher trains
-
Last
3 races are 100+ Brisnet figures
-
Top
Brisnet Prime Power rating in field
-
2
out of last 3 races with 100+ Late Pace Brisnet figures
-
Winner
of the Florida Derby. Since 1980, the
Florida Derby has yielded 13 winners of the Kentucky Derby – more than any
other prep race.
-
Top
3 in longest striding horses.
Any
vulnerabilities? Yes – looking at speed
figures – while most of the Derby field show improvement race over race as the
horses mature from 2yo to 3yo – Forte has leveled off or even regressed in a
small bit. Also stride efficiency for
the longer Florida Derby was 93% while in the race prior, the Fountain of
Youth, Forte had an impressive 98% stride efficiency – a drop off at the longer
distance. Will need Forte in the mix but
looking elsewhere for the Derby Lock.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
16 Raise Cain 15-1
Owner: Andrew & Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
Pedigree: Violence-Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid
Record: 7:2-1-1
LSI: 95-96-99
Raise
Cain was almost sold by owner Andrew and Rania Warren at the OBS June 2yo sale
last year but the Violence colt didn’t meet its reserve and the Oklahoma based
owner sent RC off to Ben Colebrook to train to horse. RC has 2 wins (maiden at Keeneland and an
emphatic win in the Gotham at Aqueduct) peppered in with several sound defeats.
Raise Cain’s speed figures are some of
the lowest in the field and the only scenario I see the horse having a shot at
winning is if the track turns up muddy and even then there are more likely
winners.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
17 Derma Sotogake 10-1
Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Pedigree: Mind
Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie, by Neo Universe
Record: 8:4-0-2
LSI: xx-xx-xx
It is certainly the halcyon days for Japanese
horse racing proven by Japanese success across the globe. Each year there are 3 major horse racing
events that features horses from all around the world – these are Saudi Cup Day, Dubai World Cup
Day and the Breeders Cup. Since 2021, at
these events, Japanese-bred or trained horses have won no less than 19 contests. These races were across surfaces (turf and
dirt) and distances (sprints, middle distance and long distances). Right now – the Number 1 ranked horse in the
world is Equinox – a Japanese-bred and trained horse that dazzled the planet in
the Dubai Sheema Classic - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QoQOhflbXQ – please take a look for yourself. There also is budding superstar in Japan
called Liberty Island – a 3yo filly that won the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas)
that may take on the boys in the Japan Derby.
Although, the best horses in Japan ply their trade on the turf – the Japanese
dirt racing program is impressive too as proven by big global dirt racing wins
such as Ushba Tesoro winning the 2023 Dubai World Cup which was a few races
after Derma Sotogake put on a jaw dropping performance in the 2023 UAE
Derby. Lets examine Derma Sotogake’s successes:
- ダーマソトガケはドバイで速く走りました. Derma
Sotogake was clocked running the 1900m (approx. 9 furlongs) UAE Derby in 1m
55.81s if extrapolated out to 2000m at 2m 1.9s compared to Ushba Tesoro’s World Cup time of 2m 3.25s thus Derma Sotogake
ran about 7 lengths faster.
-
ダーマソトガケはドバイでのスピードフィギュアが良かった。 Although
no Beyers or Brisnet figures are calculated for the Dubai races – it has been
suggested that the Beyer may be around 104 and other suggested that the Brisnet
speed figure would be 103 with a late pace Brisnet figure of 110
-
ダーマソトガケは100%1位2位3位 -Discount
his first 2 turf starts – Derma Sotogake has 100% in-the-money finishes.
- ダーマソトガケは4競馬場で4回優勝. 4 wins
came across 4 different race tracks.
- ダーマソトガケは9ハロン以上で3勝. Has 3
wins at 9+ furlongs.
- ダーマソトガケは日本最高のダート3歳競走馬です。Past Japanese participants in the Derby weren’t necessarily even the top dirt 3yos in Japan. This year Derma Sotogake may be the best dirt 3yo along with a colt named, Mitono O.
The
Locks was about to coronate Derma Sotogake as the Derby Lock – with the vision
that Derma Sotogake could get out in the first flight of horses and then just
gallop away from all challengers in the stretch toward victory….but then there
was the post position draw putting Derma Sotogake out at Post 17, 16, 15, 14. This will make it more difficult to get out
near the lead without exerting incredible energy early to get across the track
ahead of the onslaught of horses charging for a similar spot. With Practical Move et al. scratching out of the race, Derma Sotogake will move to Post 14 and this will still compromise a move for Lemaire on Derma Sotogake to take control of the race on the front end. Post 14 is a bit of a purgatory as the Post has yielded only 3% winners with last winner springing from this post was in 1961. - Post 17 is the Derby’s version of Tottenham Hotspur
Stadium – no championship is going to be won from there. Since the use of starting gates was
established in 1930, no Derby was won from Post 17 and the last horse that had
a runner-up finish from that post was Forty Niner in 1988.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
18 Rocket Can 15-1
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Pedigree: Into Mischief-Tension, by Tapit
Record: 7:2-2-0
LSI: 97-96-99
Frank Fletcher, a Little Rock, Arkansas
native, names all of his horses with a “Rocket” for colts and “Rockette” for
fillies in honor of his favorite dog Rocket.
Frank is a business man that owns car dealerships and stakehouses. Although has campaigned some good horses,
Rocket Can will be Frank’s first Derby horse. Rocket Can has won the Holy Bull
at Gulfstream and also has a 2 turn victory at Churchill Downs on the
curriculum vitae. Rocket Can then had a
troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby being held 4 wide and then not gaining
ground on the far turn only to finish 4th as the beaten
favorite. Only Barbaro and Go for Gin
has pulled off the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby double but both Barbaro and Go
for Gin had better prep races before the Derby than Rocket Man’s.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
19 Lord Miles 30-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Vegso Racing Stable
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Pedigree: Curlin-Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior
Record: 5:2-0-1
LSI: 86-93-101
Lord Miles’ owner Peter Vegso is the publisher
that is behind the Chicken Soup for the Soul books – compilation of true,
inspirational stories. If Lord Miles
wins the Kentucky Derby, it would fit right in that series of self-help books –
after a couple of sound defeats in the Holy Bull (6th) and the Tampa
Bay Derby (5th) – it was surprising just to see this home-bred colt
entered into the Wood Memorial – bettors dismissed Lord Miles’ chances sending
the him off at 59-1 – after being bumped at the break and then shuffled back to
4th and parked wide – looked like this one was again destined for an
out-of-the-money finish but on the far turn hooked up with Hit Show and fought
toughly with that gray colt down the stretch to eek out a nose victory –
gaining entry into the Derby. Despite an efficient stride which translates
that Lord Miles may be running better than others at the end of the Derby, the Locks
doesn’t see Lord Miles adding another chapter to the book – others with similar
racing styles appear to be faster horses, the Wood Memorial looks like a much
weaker version this year, hasn’t fixed consistent
problems leaving the gate.
Lock’s Verdict: 🔒🔒
20 Continuar 50-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Pedigree: Drefong-Pan de Ring, by King Kamehameha
Record: 5:2-1-1
LSI: xx-xx-xx
Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is no stranger to
winning on the biggest stage in the US. In
2021, Yahagi-san’s charges Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine won at the
Breeder’s Cup at Del Mar. Marche
Lorraine won at 50-1 just like Continuar’s morning line odds. Yahagi-san also knows how to win Triple Crown
races. Yahagi’s Contrail swept the 2020
Triple Crown in Japan. Continuar made it to the starting gate by virtue of
winning the Cattleya Stakes as part of the Japan Road to the Derby. Continuar has won at 9 furlongs. Continuar was
runner-up by a mere nose to Derma Sotogake last November but was most recently 3rd
and 10 lengths behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. Post position 18 has yieled 2 winners including the 2019 winner.. Continuar’s
Japanese speed figures are nothing special but that also was the case with
Marche Lorraine. Would be quite
miraculous for Continuar to win.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
21 Cyclone Mischief 50-1
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables Llc And Castleton
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: TBD
Pedigree: Into Mischief - Areyoucominghere (Bernadini)
Record: 7:2-0-3
LSI: 85-95-99
With Practical Move's scratch got into the race as the next highest Road to the Derby points getter - 3rd in Florida Derby, 3rd in the Fountain of Youth. Great pedigree and high priced yearling. But reality is that the speed figures are on low side. One of the shortest striding horses in the field. Will not be a repeat of last year where Rich Strike got a late nod into the Derby and improbably won.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
22 Mandarin Hero 20-1
Owner: Hiroaki Arai
Trainer: Fujita Terunobu
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby - Namura Nadeshiko (Fuji Kiseki)
Record: 6:4-2-0
LSI: xx-xx-103
Mandarin Hero is another horse that has made its way into the field via a scratched horse. Mandarin Hero is Japanese bred and trained but came over to the US for the Santa Anita Derby finishing 2nd losing by just a nose. Mandarin Hero earned a 100 Brisnet and a 106 late pace Brisnet figures. The fact that Mandarin Hero had not competed at all at the highest level of racing in Japan can speak volumes on the quality of Japanese horse racing. Mandarin Hero only raced at an Oi race track which is small dirt race track in Tokyo close to Haneda Airport. Mandarin Hero is a NAR horse whereas Derma Sotogake is a JRA horse. NAR horses usually race at a local track during the week with a lower quality of racing. JRA races are mostly weekend affairs and feature the highest level racing that exists in Japan. Although there is no equivalent in the US perhaps it would be like a horse that raced all races at Thistledown came to the Derby. Despite racing at the lower level in Japan albeit very successfully was able to compete with some of the better horses in the US. Looking at Mandarin Hero's Japanese speed figures - they may align with 50-70 Beyer speed figures. In each of Mandarin Hero's races in Japan showed a closing kick which goes against the normal grain as NAR tracks are much more speed favoring. Mandarin Hero's stride efficiency was much better than any of the other rivals in the Santa Anita Derby. Willing to give MH a shot in the exotics.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
23 King Russell 50-1
Owner: Brereton C. Jones and Naber Racing, LLC
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Rafeal Bejarano
Pedigree: Creative Cause - Believe You Will (Proud Citizen)
Record: 6:1-3-0
LSI: 97-96-100
King Russell makes 3 horses coming off the also eligible list to be added to the Derby field. Do not expect King Russell to be a factor in the race. Has only 1 win - took 5 times to break maiden - modest speed figures (lowest Beyers in field). Appears that former Kentucky governor Brereton Jones and part owner of King Russell is allowing the other part owner Naber Racing silks to be used in the Derby. a bio of Naber Racing LLC principal Roger Naber can give hint on why the silks are so garish: Roger Naber has been promoting the Blues for over 25 years, as an independent promoter, as owner of the twice-honored KBA Blues club Grand Emporium in Kansas City, as co-founder of the Kansas City Blues Society and the Kansas City Blues & Heritage Festival, and as the co-founder of the Ultimate Rhythm and Blues cruise.
Locks Verdict: 🔒
---------------------------------------------
Give the following horses consideration if a muddy/sloppy track:
Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Raise Cain, Rocket Can, Confidence
Game.
The Bets:
Kentucky Derby
◎ 5 Tapit Trice 5-1
○ 17 Derma Sotogake 10-1
▲14 Angel of Empire 8-1
△ 3 Two Phil’s 12-1
△ 22 Mandarin Hero 20-1
The Locks Bets are;
$20 Win #5 = $20
$1 Exacta All over #5 = $17
$10 WPS #5 = $30
$5 WPS #17 = $15
$1 Exacta Box: 3-5-22-14-17 = $20
$1 Exacta 5-14-17/3-5-22-14-17 = $12
$1 Trifecta 5-14-17/3-5-22-14-17/3-5-22-14-17 = 3 x 4 x 3 =$36
Total $20+$30+$17+$12+$30+$15+$36=$160.
○ 17 デルマソトガケ10-1
▲14 エンジェルオブエンパイア 8-1
△ 3 トゥーフィルズ 12-1
△ 22 マンダリンヒーロー20-1
Kentucky Oaks
◎ 7 Wet Paint 5/2
○ 11 Defining Purpose 12-1
▲8 Promiseher America 30-1
△ 3 Gambling
Girl 15-1
△ 6 Botanical 4-1
|
The Locks Rating |
The Locks |
Morning Line |
|
☆☆☆☆☆ |
Tapit Trice |
|
|
☆☆☆☆ |
Derma Sotogake Angel of Empire
Two Phil’s |
Tapit Trice Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake |
|
☆☆☆ |
Hit Show
Verifying Kingsbarns Rocket Can
Disarm Mandarin Hero |
Two Phil’s Kingsbarns Mage Verifying Confidence Game Skinner Mandarin Hero |
|
☆☆ |
Mage
Raise Cain Confidence Game Cyclone Mischief Jace’s Road Reincarnate Sun Thunder |
Hit Show Disarm Rocket Can Lord Miles Cyclone Mischief |
|
☆ |
|
Jace’s Road Reincarnate Raise Cain Sun Thunder
King Russell |
[1] Tin Cup derailed the
Locks in what was to be the greatest golf movie since Caddyshack, “18 Holes” an
R-rated buddy dramedy loosely adapted from Shakespere’s King Lear – the script only got to the treatment phase
and there were no takers when the script was attempted to be shopped at the
Farmer’s Market during a trip to Los Angeles.
“There won’t be another golf movie for another 15 years” is the best
response the Locks got from an Assistant to an Assistant Producer at Paramount.
[2] If Sun Thunder wins the
Derby, the Locks will wear said garment on next international flight.
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