The 2017 Kentucky Derby Locks

The Locks have had marginal success in the last 3 years as heavy favorites (less than 3-1 odds) have won the last 3 editions and the Locks usually looks for more value than that for Derby wagers.  This year we expect more balanced odds among the starters with the most likely winners going off at odds closer to 4-1 to 6-1 so there will be more value and bigger payouts this year.  In looking for the Kentucky Derby winner, the Locks looks at horses that showed success already on the track (Winners), those that can carry their speed over the Derby distance (Runners) and those horses that are not trying to create a precedent in the long history of the Derby (History).

Winners:

Horses winning in Derby preps is an important factor to consider in determining who will win the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those 7 starts.  In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him with 50-1 payouts.  Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins has been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1). In this year field, Sonneteer is a maiden, Irap,  Untrapped,  State of Honor, and Patch only have 1 win with Looking at Lee, J Boys Echo, Hence, and Battle of Midway only having 2 wins.  So, to bet on these, you will want to be rewarded at odds of 20-1+.  

Runners:

As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race".  Dr. Sartin also makes the argument that skilled horserace wagering is a positive expectancy event and thus not gambling.   In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important.  To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to perform analysis through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.  It is important to note looking at the last 26 Kentucky Derby winners, after 6 furlongs into their races, their average position was  6th,  over 4 ½ lengths back from the leader and only War Emblem, in 2002, in that 26th year span, has wired the field to win.  However, the last 3 editions of the Derby, the winner of the Derby stayed close to the early pace leaders,.  Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry,  Irap and State of Union appear to the most keen in the field.  But with the Derby being the longest race that the colts will have ever run, you want to find a horse that can carry its speed across distance.  Hence (12.39s), Classic Emprie (12.5s), Always Dreaming (12.53s),  Thunder Snow (12.73s) showed the best closing times in the last 1/8th mile in their final Derby preps.  This year there is a large number of presser types but devoid of any rabbit so the pace should be honest but not hot. So in looking for a winner, I’ve looked at horses that have some versatility and shown the ability to come of the pace and that are still running fast at the end. 

History:

Readers of the past editions of the Locks will fully know that the Locks was 1 credit shy of a being a history minor at Georgetown University but was tripped up by a tricky Russian History class that expected you to know more about the Bolshevik revolution than half-watching Dr. Zhivago while drinking an indigent version of a White Russian comprised of 2 parts YooHoo 3 parts Cossack vodka.  But as a near-historian, not only has the Locks learned that betting on horse racing goes back to around 1350BC under Suppiluliumas, the King of Mittani (not a false-fact) but value the notion that to help predict the future you have to look back on the past.   With 142 other versions of the Kentucky Derby in the books, lets see if we can find clues to help us find a Kentucky Derby winner. 

• Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 14 and 5 out of the last 7 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them.  In the 2017 Kentucky Derby, Irish War Cry, Sonneteer, Thunder Snow, State of Honor, Hence, McCraken, and Patch are all homebreds.

• After winning 3 out of 9 Kentucky Derbies from 1997 – 2005, gray horses have been less successful in the last 11 years with 23 grays running with an average finish of 9th place with best finishes being 1 2nd place and 2 3rd places.  There are 2 gray/roan colts in this years field: Tapwrit and Fast and Accurate.

• Three trainers are walking more than 1 colt over to start in the Derby, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen, and Mark Casse.  These trainers combined have saddled 1 winner out of 63 starters.

• Derby starters with names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not done well with a record of 10 wins out of 186 starters (5.3%).  Irap, Irish War Cry and Untrapped looking to change that. Those horses whose name begins with A have had better luck with winning at 10.5% clip.  Always Dreaming is the fields only ‘A’ horse in the field.

• Irish War Cry (New Jersey), Thunder Snow (Ireland) and State of Honor (Ontario) are the only non-Kentucky-bred Derby starters.   Only 2 New Jersey-breds have won the Derby with the last winner being Cavalcade in 1934.  Actually the last New Jersey-bred to start in the Derby was Stanley Burrell’s (aka MC Hammer) Dance Floor in 1992 (Historical Reference: Hammer’s own 2 Legit 2 Quit still hovered in the Top 40 even though being released a year earlier).  Out of 8 Irish-bred starters in the Derby history average finish has been 11th with best finish being 7th.   The last non-US bred horse to win the Derby was in 1983 which was Canadian bred Sunny’s Halo – the only other Canadian-bred winner was Northern Dancer.  Interesting to note the influence of Northern Dancer in today’s thoroughbred breeding – every Kentucky Derby starter has roots within 5 generations to Northern Dancer.

• Apollo in 1882 (Historical Reference: PT Barnum buys Jumbo) is the only Derby winner to not race as a 2yo, Patch and Battle of Midway each did not start as a 2yo.  The record of Derby starters since 1937 that didn’t race as 2yos is 59 starts, 0 wins, 3 2nds, 4 3rds.

• Since 1933 (Historical Reference: game of Monopoly invented) when Brokers Tip won the Derby in his maiden race, the last date in the year a Derby winner broke their maiden was January 17th.  Irap (April 8th), Always Dreaming (January 25th), Battle of Midway (January 21st), Patch (February 18th) all broke their maiden post-January 17th. 

• Since 1914 (Historical Reference: Woodrow Wilson signs executive order to celebrate Mother's Day), no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Laurel Park (Irish War Cry), Tampa Bay Downs (Always Dreaming), Oaklawn Park (Hence), Ellis Park (Lookin at Lee) or Leicester (UK) (Thunder Snow). 

• Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby, Tapwrit (5th- Blue Grass Stakes) and Untapped (6th – Arkansas Derby) 

The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line
☆☆☆☆☆	Always Dreaming	Classic Empire
☆☆☆☆	Gunnevera Thunder Snow Hence	McCraken Always Dreaming Irish War Cry
☆☆☆	Classic Empire Irish War Cry Lookin at Lee Practical Joke McCraken Sonneteer J Boys Echo Tapwrit Girvin Gormley Battle of Midway Patch Irap	Girvin Hence Gunnevera Gormley Lookin at Lee Thunder Snow Irap J Boys Echo Tapwrit Practical Joke Untrapped State of Honor Battle of Midway Patch
☆☆	Untrapped State of Honor Fast and Accurate	Sonneteer Fast and Accurate

1 Lookin At Lee 20-1

Owner: L and N Racing, LLC 

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen 

Jockey: Corey Lanerie               

Sire : Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) $17,500

Dam: Langara Lass (Langfuhr)

CSI: 97-99-98

Usually not looking at horses that have lost by a combined 27+ lengths in last 4 races also the Locks appreciates the fact that the rail post position has not been kind as Ferdinand in 1986 was last horse with #1 post to win the Derby. But the Derby has had some bomb closers that come in 2nd/3rd - so must use this one in exotics.  Has made late runs in last 8 races so look for same in the Derby. 

2 Thunder Snow 20-1

Owner: Godolphin 

Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor 

Jockey: Christophe Soumillon 

Sire : =Helmet (AUS) (=Exceed and Excel (AUS)) $12,339

Dam: =Eastern Joy (GB) (Dubai Destination)

After years of efforts and winning every other major horse race in the world, Thunder Snow may be the horse that gives Sheik Mohammed Maktoum his first Kentucky Derby win.   Thunder Snow just headed Epicharis in the UAE Derby to get the invite to Churchill Downs.  Epicharis had won a position in the Kentucky Derby gate by winning some stakes races in Japan but is passing on the Derby  - but watch out for that talented colt in the Belmont.  The UAE Derby has produced some solid performers in the Derby - consider that only 2 out of 12 starters in the Derby that came out of the UAE Derby did not finish in the top half of Kentucky Derby finishers - a mark that is far better than the starters in other Derby preps.  As much as recent history has been unkind to those coming out of post position 1, the 2 hole has proved to be a much better spot to spring from over the past 87 years.  Out of the 20 post positions, post #2 is 2nd in producing in the money finishers as well as the 2nd best average finish position.  One may think this colt’s breeding will not produce a horse capable of running the Derby distance as the sire, Helmet, was a sprinter/miler but the dam-sire has an average winning distance of its progeny that far exceeds rest of the field.  May be compromised by a sloppy/muddy track.

3 Fast and Accurate 50-1

Owner: Kendall E. Hansen 

Trainer: Michael J. Maker 

Jockey: Channing Hill

Sire : Hansen (Tapit) $12,500

Dam: It's Heidi's Dance (Green Dancer)

CSI: 110-100-99

Fast and Accurate, besides Thunder Snow and Always Dreaming, is the only colt coming into the Derby with a 3 race winning streak but that is not going to help the Pink - Tom Brady-Size Medium Jersey Challenge pick.  This son of Hansen (Hmmm  Bop) has yet to crack 90 in both Beyers and Brisnet speed figures also came home in the Spiral Stakes (fka Jim Beam Stakes) in a dawdling 14.11 seconds (looking for sub 13) and whose time did not compare favorably to the time put up by the 3yo fillies racing that day.  Also owner Kendal Hansen, felt so little about this colt that put him into a maiden claiming race in December - only Charismatic in 1999 and the 2009 Pink-Tom Brady-Size Medium Jersey Challenge pick, Mine that Bird has won the Derby after breaking their maidens in a maiden claiming race.

If Pink-Tom Brady-Size Medium Jersey Challenge pick wins, the Locks will wear such garment on a Metro-North commute from Connecticut into Manhattan. 

4 Untrapped 30-1

Owner: Michael Langford 

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen 

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. 

Sire : Trappe Shot (Tapit) $7,500

Dam: Exit Three (Giant's Causeway)

CSI: 101-100-95

The Meh horse of the field.  Only 1 win and that was in November 2016 going 6.5 furlongs.  6th place finish and sub-par speed figs in last race.  Ranked 16th in field for Brisnet Prime Power figures. Pass.

5 Always Dreaming 5-1

Owner: Brooklyn Boyz Stables 

Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher 

Jockey: John R. Velazquez 

Sire : Bodemeister (Empire Maker) $25,000

Dam: Above Perfection (In Excess (IRE))

CSI: 111-91-103

Always Dreaming has the attributes to be the Lock for the Kentucky Derby.   Comes into race with 3 wins including the only horse in field with 2 9-furlong wins.   Has the pace to be running fast at the end of the race: Brisnet late pace figures include a 112 for one race back,  12.5s for last 1/8th in last Derby prep in which the final time compared very favorably to the 3yo fillies race (>2secs faster).   Gets one of the best jockeys in the game.  This is the 2017 Kentucky Derby Lock.

6 State of Honor 30-1

Owner: Conrad Farms 

Trainer: Mark E. Casse 

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sire :  To Honor and Serve (Bernadini) $10,000 

Dam: State Cup (Elusive Quality)

CSI:  100-98-98

State of Honor’s last and only victory was going 7 furlongs on Woodbine’s synthetic surface.  Was a Canadian snowbird in Florida over winter where the colt had a case of second-itis - 3 out of 4 races coming in 2nd without threatening the winner in the past 3 races.   Despite being Candian-bred no one is comparing the colt to the Great One.

Speaking of the Great One - Wayne Gretsky - and the Locks has addressed this before--  perhaps his ‘greatness’ is a bit over-inflated - yes, he’s racked up stats that go off the charts but in measuring “greatness” in sports don’t you look to championships….Jordan is great because of his 6 rings, Kobe has 5 and Shaq has 4….no one was ready to put LeBron in the pantheon of “greatness” until he won a championship - each of them also have at least one Olympic gold medal….now Gretsky did help hoist 4 Stanley Cups with Edmonton but he did so with the likes of Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Paul Coffey, Grant Fuhr, Esa Tikkanen but once Gretsky took his flowing locks to LA  - he would not win another Stanley Cup.  Mark Messier on the other hand would lead Edmonton to another championship and then would go on to raise the Cup for the NY Rangers.    Not only is limited in NHL championships Gretsky also is without an Olympic medal of any color.  So should we really be calling him the OK One...the So-So One….the Lots-of-Stats-But-Not-So-Much-With-The-Rings One??

7 Girvin  15-1

Owner: Brad Grady 

Trainer: Joe Sharp

Jockey: Mike E. Smith 

Sire : Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat)

Dam: Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon)

CSI: 100-102-101

Girvin is named for a tiny town (pop. 30) in Pecos County, Texas, the hometown of owner Brad Grady.  Girvin, if was to name a horse for his hometown, would call his horse, Fair Grounds, as it is the only place the colt has raced  in its four-race career.   Looking at Derby winners since 1980, no other Derby winner has only raced in 1 race track before coming to Churchill Downs.  Despite facts that Girvin has the highest Brisnet late pace figure in the field (tied with Always Dreaming) and is 3 for 3 in dirt races, Girvin’s regular jockey, Brian Hernandez, when choosing between 2 Derby mounts chose McCracken over Girvin - not giving bettors great confidence.  Also consider that Girvin’s Louisiana Derby win was almost 1.5secs slower than an uninspirational group of older horses ran on the same card.

8 Hence 15-1

Owner: Calumet Farm 

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen 

Jockey: Flavian Geroux

Sire : Street Boss (Street Cry (IRE)) $17,500

Dam: Floating Island (A.P. Indy)

CSI:  97-96-109

Hence is an interesting play - consider that Irap 5th in the Sunland Derby, a race that Hence won and came back to win the Blue Grass Stakes.  Shows a pattern of increasing speed figures across career.   Had a 12.39s closing 1/8th in last Derby prep which was much faster in overall time than both the 3yo fillies and handicap division races run that day at Sunland.  Sports the highest last race CSI.  Workouts show handling the CD oval well. 

9 Irap 20-1

Owner: Reddam Racing LLC 

Trainer: Doug F. O'Neill 

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez 

Sire : Tiznow (Cee's Tizzy) $60,000

Dam: Silken Cat (Storm Cat)

CSI:  94-100-101

Irap is from the same connections, owner, trainer and jockey as 2014 Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another and last years winner, Nyquist. Irap comes in with a Blue Grass Stakes win on its resume but consider the fact that the winner of the Blue Grass stakes has not won the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold won in 1991 and the average finish for Blue Grass stakes winners since that date has been 10th place.  Irap also only has that win to its credit - was unsuccessful in its first 7 races across 4 different race tracks.  Named for Interluekin-1 Receptor Antagonist Protein - is there a doctor in the house?

10 Gunnevera 15-1

Owner: Peacock Stables, LLC 

Trainer: Antonio Sano

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sire : Dialed In (Mineshaft) $15,000

Dam: Unbridled Rage (Unbridled)

CSI: 102-107-96

This big leggy colt who was orphaned as a early foal is trained by Venezuelan Antonio Sano .  Gunnevera will be running late - has the highest late Timeform pace figure as well as only horse in field with last 3 races - with triple digit late pace Brisnet figures.  Top jockey Javier Castellano rides.   Don't worry too much about the 3rd in the Florida Derby as track was speed favoring. 

11 Battle of Midway 30-1

Owner: Don Alberto Stable

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer 

Jockey: Flavien Prat 

Sire : Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector) $100,000

Dam: Rigoletta (Concerto)

CSI: 100-103-94

Battle of Midway is owned by a Chilean conglomerate magnet.  Like Girvin has only raced at one single track in its 4 race career.  Beyers speed figs are all sub-90 where the expected Beyer for the winner will be between 100-105.  Some cite that this may be a wise guy pick as the horse was pressed on a hot pace in the Santa Anita Derby but was still close at the end of race. - however - feel that the Santa Anita was one of the weaker Derby preps this year.

12 Sonneteer 50-1

Owner: Calumet Farm

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Sire : Midnight Lute (Real Quiet) $20,000

Dam: Ours (Half Ours)

CSI: 97-101-98

At a record of 0 for 10 races - this maiden has been as successful as a North Korean missile test but has almost identical running lines as Looking at Lee. Good workout shows will handle track well.  Can Sonneteer be like Broker’s Tip in 1933 and win the Derby as a maiden?  Probably not - but need this one in your exotics.  Sonneteer is a writer of Sonnets of which Shakespere is the most famous Sonneteer and in Sonnet 51 seems he also was a student of Dr. Sartin and pace handicapping methodology.

O what excuse will my poor beast then find,

When swift extremity can seem but slow?

Then should I spur, though mounted on the wind;

In wingèd speed no motion shall I know:

Then can no horse with my desire keep pace;

Therefore desire, of perfect’st love being made,

Shall neigh no dull flesh in his fiery race,

13 J Boys Echo 20-1

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC 

Trainer: Dale L. Romans 

Jockey: Robby Albarado

Sire : Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) $25,000

Dam: Letgomyecho (Menifee)

CSI: 96-105-95

J Boys Echo sports the highest 3yo BRISnet speed figure in the field and a running style that may fit with winning the race but there are a few things stacked against this colt.  Including the fact that none of the 40 runners in the Gotham Stakes since 1980 has won the Kentucky Derby also noted that winners of only 2 races coming into the Derby and last race CSI of 95 predicts that this colt is unlikely to win.

14 Classic Empire 4-1

Owner: John C. Oxley 

Trainer: Mark E. Casse 

Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux 

Sire : Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) $110,000

Dam: Sambuca Classica (Cat Thief)

CSI: 104-97-104

Classic Empire’s best race of career still is the colts victory in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile.  That race put the colt out of the same sire as American Pharoah as winter book Kentucky Derby favorite - consider the fact that since 1979 (Historical Reference: Magic beats Bird in the NCAA basketball finals) only 2 winter-book favorites (Street Sense 2007 and Spectacular Bid 1979) has won the Kentucky Derby.  Classic Empire last race speed figure is 11th out of 20 Kentucky Derby starters.  

15 McCraken 5-1

Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC 

Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes

Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

Sire : Ghostzapper (Awesome Again) $75,000

Dam: Ivory Empress (Seeking the Gold)

CSI: 102-103-97

McCraken could have been the Derby favorite with 3 wins at Churchill Downs, a 4 win streak, a running style that could fare well with a speedy pace but McCraken ran an unimpressive 3rd while flattening out in the Blue Grass Stakes.  In the last 20 years, only long-shots Charismatic and Giacomo won the Derby with a sub-100 last race CSI. The average last-race CSI for the past 19 not taking in the sub-100 CSI performers has been 105 - McCraken’s last race CSI is a 97 at 5-1 - makes this a tough bet.  Like Girvin, McCraken is named for a small town - this time for McCracken, Kansas (pop 190) - like American Pharoah has a misspelling in the name - is that a good omen?

16 Tapwrit 20-1

Owner: Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and LaPenta, Robert V. 

Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher 

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz 

Sire : Tapit (Pulpit) $300,000

Dam: Appealing Zophie (Successful Appeal)

CSI:  101-103-89

A $1.2m purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale looked to be on way of being one of the Kentucky Derby favorites after an impressive Tampa Derby but threw in a clunker in the Blue Grass Stakes.  Top sire with a top jockey but last 5 Tampa Derby winners who started in the Kentucky Derby average finish place is 14th.

17 Irish War Cry 6-1

Owner: Isabelle de Tomaso 

Trainer: H. Graham Motion 

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh 

Sire : Curlin (Smart Strike) $150,000

Dam: Irish Sovereign (Polish Numbers)

CSI: 106-85-105

Would love to see this horse win for trainer Graham Motion. Graham Motion doesn’t bring horses to the Derby just to have a horse in the Derby - this horse earned its spot with impressive wins in the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial.   IWC has the #1 Brisnet Prime Power figure and solid CSIs. - no other horse in the field has more than one triple-figure Brisnet speed figure - IWC has 3.  IWC’s running style and post position may compromise its chances as well as fact that come-home speed is not what you’d want for a horse that is being asked to run 10 furlongs for first time - a Timeform Late Pace: 72;  Brisnet Late Pace: 80;  13.24s final 1/8th. 

18 Gormley 15-1

Owner: Moss, Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. 

Trainer: John A. Shirreffs 

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Sire : Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) $75,000

Dam: Race to Urga (Bernstein)

CSI: 102-99-95

Gormley named after a British sculptor although an accomplished winner doesn’t fulfill the Locks requirement of carrying speed at end of races - Gormley has 2 sub-par 80 late pace Brisnet figures as well as finished the last 1/8th of the Santa Anita Derby in 13.61secs.  Gormley’s Santa Anita Derby also did not compare favorably to the Santa Anita Oaks - actually extrapolated time was more than 2 seconds slower.  Speed figs are pedestrian.  Same trainer/owner connections as the great race mare Zenyatta.  Owner Jerry Moss is the “M” in A&M Records.

19 Practical Joke 20-1

Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H. 

Trainer: Chad C. Brown 

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sire : Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) $75,000

Dam: Halo Humor (Distorted Humor)

CSI: 96-101-100

Stable started by hedge fund guys has historically used financial terms as naming convention for their horses and have successfully campaigned horses such as Balance the Books, Currency Swap, Deeply Undervalued, Takeover Target, etc.. However, relied heavily on the horses sire and dams to name this one. Practical Joke is the only colt in the field that sports a 90+ Brisnet figure for every race of its career as such has shown consistency which don’t find in some of the top favorites in the field.  Has excuses in 2 of its last 3 races and was gaining on the winner in the Blue Grass while finishing 2nd.  Have a future wager on this one already so not putting further money on this one today.

20 Patch 30-1

Owner: Calumet Farm 

Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher 

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Sire : Union Rags (Dixie Union) $50,000

Dam: Windyindy (A.P. Indy)

CSI:  96-102-100

Patch is aptly named as is Wesley Walker-esque and blind in one eye - however - history is stacked against this one - Apollo in 1882 is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby without running as a 2yo.  Since 1937, only Big Brown in 2008 has won the Derby with as few as 3 starts prior to the Derby. Also rookie jockeys, such as Tyler Gaffalione, have only won 2 Run for the Roses since 1980.

The Bets:

$1 Exacta  2-5-8-10 over 1-2-5- 8 -10-12 = $20.

$1 Trifecta 2-5-8-10 over 1-2-5-8 -10-12 over 1-2-5-8-10-12= $80.

$20 Win 5  = $20

$1 Exacta all over 5.  = $19

$1 Oaks/Derby Double 4-7-10-12 with 2-5-8-10 =$16.

Consider replacing the #2 with #17 in event of a sloppy/muddy surface but if track drying-out and is cuppy then back to #2.

Also on the morning of the Kentucky Derby put a wager on #5 Eminent in the 1st leg of the English Triple Crown, the 2000 Guineas and look for #3 Churchill (5/4) and #7 Larchmont Lad (33/1) to be in the mix as well.