2015 Kentucky Derby - The Locks
The field for the 2015 Kentucky Derby is pretty stacked - this year we luckily have been virtually devoid of a defection of top Derby contender - previous years we saw potential Derby favorites - Algorithms, Eskendreya, Uncle Mo, I Want Revenge, Quality Road among others all drop off the Derby trail before the first Saturday in May. This year we have 3 heavyweights in the ring for the Derby - American Pharoah, Carpe Diem and Dortmund - each with at least 2 G1 wins and a combined record of 14 wins in 16 starts. But the Derby may be owned the #4 or #5 contender, Firing Line.
But before we focus in on the Derby Lock lets figure out how we look at and bet the Derby - the Locks looks for horses that fit the historic Locks Winning Pattern: those that can win, those that can run fast and those that conform to history. Winners, Runners and Conformers make the Locks Derby Winning Pattern....
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible that have at least 3 wins.
Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.
Recent data shows the following results:
Since 1993, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7+ lengths off the pace, 3/4m - 6 lengths, 1mile - 2 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 2 wire-to-wire winners and 1 other horse that was less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
Armed with those facts and also knowing that American Pharoah, Materiality, Stanford will want to be on or near the lead...the 2 horses that the Locks has identified as the 2 best in the field --Spoiler Alert! Dortmund and Firing Line -- will need to display some versatility in its racing style to end up in the winner’s circle.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys history and any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. The Locks recently tried to parlay my accumulation of useless knowledge into a spot on Jeopardy! but the test I took had no less than 3 references to Russian history....the subject of the same class that tripped me up in completing my history minor. I thought by mixing vodka drinks (Yoo-Hoo & Cossack vodka White Russians) that I -- by osmosis -- would learn about Russia -- surprisingly it didn’t work and I was asked to drop the class. That said....The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 139 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
- Since 1964 (Historical Reference: Sean Connery is James Bond), only 2 colts have won the Kentucky Derby sired by another Kentucky Derby winner; 1996 Grindstone (Unbridled), 1984 Swale (Seattle Slew); this year International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus), Dortmund (Big Brown), Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense) are sired by Kentucky Derby winners.
- Since 1991 (Historical Reference: Guns n Roses kick off a 26month world tour), there have been no winners of the Kentucky Derby with a sire who had produced another Kentucky Derby winner. This year Mr. Z, Danzig Moon and Stanford are the only entrants sired by a stallion (Malibu Moon) that had also produced another Kentucky Derby winner (Orb).
- Since 1966 (Historical Reference: Canada stops using a British territorial flag and adopts the Maple Leaf flag), only 2 winners (Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus) of the Kentucky Derby have only a single race as a 2yo. Itsaknockout and Tencendur are those in this year’s edition of the Derby that have only 1 - 2yo race.
- Since 1908 (Historical Reference: Cubs win the World Series), only 5 Kentucky Derby winners have had the color pink in their silks (6 if you count Affirmed’s ‘Flamingo’ colored silks); Firing Line’s jockey will rock pink silks.
- Since 1980 (Historical Reference: AC/DC release Back in Black), horses coming out of some of the Southern California Derby prep races actually have proven to be more successful than the East Coast preps. Of the major prep races, Santa Anita Derby alumni have performed best - it's starters who also raced in the Kentucky Derby 24% of them finished in the Top 3 in the Derby with 65% of them finishing in the top half of the Derby field. Compare that with the Wood or the Blue Grass who shared similar stats, 18% Top 3/51% Top half. Only Dortmund and Bolo have raced in the Santa Anita Derby.
- The Locks can always admit when we're wrong - The Locks always thought that the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a 2-turn race at Churchill Down for 2yos, and the Remsen Stakes, a 9 furlong race at Aqueduct for 2yos, were good predicative races for the Derby but stats have proven me wrong. Of those that started in either of those races and also started in the Derby only 17% have come in the Top 3 of the Derby and only 48% have finished in the top half of the Derby field.
- But take the Frontrunner Stakes a 8.5 furlong race at Santa Anita for 2yos run every September, horses that have run in that prep and also run in the Derby have hit the top 3 at a clip of 27% additionally of that same universe 70% have come in the top half of the Derby field. Only American Pharoah raced in the Front Runner stakes.
- Despite Californina-bred, California Chrome winning the Derby last year, 75% of Kentucky Derby winners have been Kentucky-breds. This year only International Star (NY), Upstart (NY), El Kabier (FL), Tencendur (NY) are not Kentucky-breds.
- In the last 18 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in the final two prep races. This year only 2 horses have 100+ Brisnet figs in both their last 2 races, Dortmund and Materiality.
- In the same 18 year period, only long-shots Charismatic and Giacomo won the Derby with a sub-100 last race CSI. The average last-race CSI for the past 18 not taking in the sub-100 CSI performers has been 105.
The Locks Rating
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The Locks
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Morning Line
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☆☆☆☆☆
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Firing Line
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American Pharoah
Dortmund
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☆☆☆☆
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Mubtaahij
Dortmund
Frosted
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Carpe Diem
Materiality
Firing Line
Upstart
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☆☆☆
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Carpe Diem
Danzig Moon
Far Right
Materiality
Tencendur
Keen Ice
War Story
Upstart
American Pharoah
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Frosted
Mubtaahij
Itsaknockout
Bolo
Tencendur
Danzig Moon
Far Right
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☆☆
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Frammento
Mr. Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho
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Mr. Z
War Story
Frammento |
☆
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Bolo
Itsaknockout
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Ocho Ocho Ocho
Keen Ice
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1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
Pedigree: Street Sense - Winner (Horse Chestnut)
Trainer: Jim Cassidy
Jockey: Elvis Trujillo
Record: 5-3-0-1
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-104-102
Ocho Ocho Ocho or 8 8 8 represents a good luck number in a few cultures but this colt will need more than racing luck to win the Kentucky Derby. Rattled off 3 wins as a 2yo but seems to have peaked as a 2yo since as a 3yo has in only 2 starts has lost by a total of 20+ lengths. 888s Derby prep success came only in the Delta Downs Jackpot which has yielded only 9 Kentucky Derby starters with an average Ky Derby finish of 11th place. Have to go back to 1982 (remember Men without Hats’ ‘Safety Dance’) when the last horse with a Spanish name, Gato del Sol, has won the Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
2 Carpe Diem
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway - Rebridled Dream’s (Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Record: 5-4-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 107-100-91
Since winning the Blue Grass in dazzling fashion - Carpe Diem has attracted more attention than Jordan Spieth at a UT-Austin sorority mixer. The Derby is such a great betting race - you have a huge field and a betting populous that doesn’t really know a ton about betting on horses - result is that you have some live horses that end up going off at big prices - so when you bet the Derby -- you have to seize the day and you may be rewarded. Carpe Diem. $2 show bet on one of the favorites is not carpe diem -- its not seizing the day. Carpe Diem the horse will be one of the favorites at 8-1.....which on any other day is a decent price...but today the Locks wants you to be bold. So when you have a horse that seems to have it all -- strong pedigree -- has done nothing wrong on the track (4 wins and 1 game 2nd) -- connections (jockey, owner, trainer) that have won the Derby -- decent speed figs (CSIs and Brisnet are on par for winning the Derby) --- you should dig deeper to find fault. On this one --some of these detractors to consider --- have to go to 1991 for the last time the horse that won the Blue Grass went on to win the Kentucky Derby. The Trakus data shows that Danzig Moon (who ran from the 5 path)and Carpe Diem had the same average speed for the race and as such if they ran the same distance they would have come in noses apart. Either Danzig Moon is a better horse than its record suggests OR Carpe Diem may be slower than we thought. Continuing on that thought...the raw time of the race compared to other races run at Keeneland on the same day may be telling....the Blue Grass was run in 1:49.77 and then by extrapolating out the Ashland for 3yo fillies 1:49.98 and a 3yo Maiden race 1:49.67 (Godolphin’s Wisecracker maiden was impressive and one to look for in future races) but would expect the Blue Grass to be faster not slower than a maiden race. Carpe Diem also has yet to record a triple digit Beyer fig -- Andy Beyer recognized that the Bluegrass may have not been as fast (almost 4-6 lengths slower) as Dortmund’s Santa Anita, American Pharoah’s Arkansas, Materiality’s Florida, Frosted’s Wood. With this in mind we are going to seize the day with others.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
3 Materiality
Pedigree: Afleet Alex - Wildwood Flower (Langfuhr)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 3-3-0-0
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 103-101-103
“There's always another story. There's more than meets the eye.” - W.H. Auden
On paper Materiality looks good, very good. Sired by a 2-time Classic winner (Afleet Alex), is undefeated (3 for 3), has the high Beyer speed figure for the field, has top connections with Pletcher and JR Velazquez, is only horse in the field with 2- 9 furlong wins. But there is more than meets the eye--- granted the Gulfstream Park track was playing super slow, coming home in 13.8 seconds is troubling and maybe even more telling is looking at Materiality’s “gallop out” after the race....really would call it a ‘walk out’ as Materiality idled down to a canter soon after crossing the finish line -- showing how tired the colt was --- usually want to see a strong gallop out. Materiality is also trying to buck 135 years of history in being the first horse since Apollo in 1880 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2yo - also since 1915 only 1 horse has won the Derby off of 3 starts - Big Brown in 2008.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
4 Tencendur
Pedigree: Warrior’s Reward - Still Secret (Hennessy)
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Record: 5-1-1-1
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 103-101-103
Tencendur is named after the warhorse of King Charlemagne as written in the epic French poem, The Song of Roland. Despite having such a worldly name, this horse has had a very mundane life so far. Foaled in New York and has only raced at one meet at one track, that being the very depressing winter meet at Aqueduct. The long brutal hard knock life of winter racing at the dreary inner track of the Big A may have prepared this one for the advent of spring. This colt’s saw a dramatic jump in speed figs from the winter to its 2nd place finish in the Wood as the weather emerged above freezing...15 point Brisnet jump and a 18 point Beyer speed fig jump. Perhaps racing at Churchill Downs in warm weather may help continue to improve the colt. Has shown likes the CD oval with a bullet workout this past week. But still don’t think I’d bet ya bottom dollar on it.
The jockey’s silks aren’t yellow and black by accident - they also are the color of the logo for Playbill - the program that you receive at Broadway shows. That’s because owner of Tendcendur also owns and runs the company that produces the Playbill.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
5 Danzig Moon
Pedigree: Malibu Moon - Leaveminthedust (Danzig)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Record: 5-1-2-0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 104-95-103
Maybe its because we’re in the midst of NHL playoffs - there is something I like about Canadian Danzig Moon. Danzig moon doesn’t fit 2 of the criteria in the Locks Winning Pattern. Danzig Moon has only 1 win to its name - its been noted that horses still with their NX1 allowance conditions open don’t usually end up in the winner’s circle. Also not many horses break their maidens as 3 year olds (not 2yos) at Gulfstream Park and win the Derby - in the last 100 years its only been done once. Only 2 Canadian foaled horses won the Kentucky Derby with the last being Sunny’s Halo in 1983. On the positive side - Danzig Moon may have some energy at the end of the race shown by its late running style and that he appears to be workout monster. Also the Trakus data showed that if Danzig Moon was able to get the same trip as Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass that race would have been much closer. Malibu Moon has proven as a successful Ky Derby sire by producing 2013 KD winner Orb. Danzig Moon may be like poutine (nasty cheese curd fries) - some things Canadian are just an acquired taste.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
6 Mubtaahij
Pedigree: Dubawi - Pennegale (Pennekamp) (IRE)
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Record: 7-4-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-xx-xx
Although Ireland produces some of the best horses in the world - Irish bred horses have not faired well in the Derby - out of 7 starters - best finish was 7th by Hanuman Highway in 1998 and Dr. Devious in 1992 - actually its not unique to Irish-breds since 1986 no foreign bred starter has cracked the top 3 in the Derby. That being said -- there are some real interesting things to note on Mubtaahij -- meaning ‘cheery’ or ‘elated’ in Arabic -- has 4 wins out of 5 starts on the dirt and the only miss was a loss by a head in the UAE 2000 Guineas. Mubtaahij has raced and won at 9.5 furlongs twice - whereas no horse in the field has yet raced over 9 furlongs - the Derby is 10 furlongs. Trakus data is pretty telling - if Mubtaahij was running in the Dubai World Cup (run a few races after the UAE Derby) - Mubtaahij would have finished ahead of half the field with more energy than California Chrome. Critics pose the question if Christophe Soumillon a rookie at the Derby can handle the Derby - Soumillon is experienced rider on the dirt track at Meydan that always attract large fields - also he has 25 career North American starts with 10 in the money finishes with an average earning of $132k! per start (John Velazquez averages $21k per start). Also note that there are 5 other jockeys who are either making their 1st or 2nd start in the Derby. Trainer Michael de Kock is a Derby virgin but in 8 North American starts has had 6 in the money finishes with an average earning of $167k per start. You can infer from that -- he and Soumillon are only coming over if they have a shot of making money. The al Maktoum family picnic may be a bit tense this summer if owner of Mubtaahij - Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum claims victory over his cousin’s Godolphin stable.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
8 Dortmund
Pedigree: Big Brown - Our Josephina (Tale of a Cat)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Record: 6-6-0-0
Morning Line Odds: 3-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 103-103-103
Dortmund is named after Bundesliga’s(German soccer league) Borussia Dortmund soccer/football team. Haskell and Breeder’s Cup Classic winner Bayern (named for FC Bayern Munich) is owned also by Kaleem Shah. I’ve never been to Dortmund but was in London during the run up to the 2013 Champions League match at Wembley between Dortmund and Bayern. You couldn’t miss the Dortmund supporters mostly in the pubs - in Trafalgar Square - passed out on the Tube - passed out in hotel lobbies --they all seemed to have a strong love of beer and all seemed to have their enormous bodies squeezed into a XXXL bright yellow jerseys. Dortmund, the horse, appears to have something in common with the Borussia Dortmund supporters - thats their large size. Dortmund is a monster - so much so the horse had difficulty selling at auction - think about coming across someone 6’5” 290lbs and wondering if they are fast. You wouldn’t necessarily think that but you then learn its JJ Watt. But size does matter....where a normal horse has a stride length of 23.5 feet - a stride length is considered long at 24.5 feet - Dortmund’s 26.5 foot stride length is off the charts. Stride length and speed and stamina at distance have a strong correlation - where a normal horse will need 281 strides to make it the 10 furlong distance of the Derby - Dortmund can do it in 250 strides. The prospects of Dortmund in winning the Derby? Consider this 6 for 6 - thats perfect. Triple digit Brisnet, CSIs, Beyers figs in last 3 races - only horse in field that can say that is Dortmund. Stellar Wind the Oaks morning line favorite ran an extrapolated full 1 second slower than Dortmund when they ran the same day. Dortmund’s times were also competitive vs California Chrome & Shared Belief when those ran on the same day. Dortmund has shown guts in out finishing Firing Line on two occassions. For this the Locks feels Dortmund is the most talented horse in this field. But...Dortmund has had his own way in each of his races or created his own way which may not necessarily happen in the Derby. Dortmund is too big to check up in the race and then restart but Jockey Martin Garcia cannot, repeat, cannot try to stay out of trouble by pulling a Gary Stevens on Point Given - that is, ride in the clear 5 hole lane - there are too many talented horses in field to add another 100+ feet to the race. For Dortmund to win the Derby - will have to rate and will have to have a clear path down the stretch to the finish line and if that is the case -- this big monster will be coming down the lane like a freight train and wont be outfinished.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
9 Bolo
Pedigree: Temple City - Aspen Mountain (Chief Seattle)
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Record: 5-2-0-2
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-101-103
Bolo meaning ‘drunk’ in some Spanish speaking countries may cause its owners Earle Mack and Frank Stronach’s Golden Pegasus Racing Corp. to become drunk if this one by chance wins the Derby. Started a successful career on the turf with 2 open length wins then has 2 starts on dirt facing the monster Dortmund which was less successful. Although a capable horse -seems to be a few strides behind the top horses. Wouldn’t be surprised if Carla Gaines -- who would like to become the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby -- won’t be happy with a top 10 finish.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆
10 Firing Line
Pedigree: Line of David - Sister Girl Blues (Hold for Gold)
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 5-2-3-0
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 108-103-100
One of the biggest attraction’s to Firing Line is the fact that morning line is 12-1 compare to Dortmund’s who may go off as low as 3-1 and where the difference between the 2 may be a matter of inches in the 2 races they’ve faced each other. Some of the things I like:
- Gary Stevens is a 3x winner of the Kentucky Derby.
- Highest last race CSI.
- Despite only 2 wins has not done anything wrong on the track as the other 3 races have been lost by less than a combined length (head,head,1/2).
- Taking Trakus data: Firing Line’s race in the R&B Lewis Stakes was run faster than California Chrome did in the San Antonio Stakes later on the same day. Looking at the same data Firing Line actually was faster than Dortmund in that race despite losing by a head.
- Not triple digit Brisnet late pace but all 5 races in the 90s.
- Despite not being asked for anything after being 10+lengths in the lead in Sunland Derby finished in 12.69. Firing Line’s 1 mile split was .08 off the track record for a flat mile race. FL’s final time was track record.
- In first 2 races showed ability to rate and stalk.
- Despite Line of David being a <$5k sire - attracted a decent dam - she was placed in a G1.
There is a lot of talent still in the field and some things will need to happen such as Firing Line will need to rate off the pace to have enough at the end to win - also that his rival Dortmund does not get a perfect trip.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆
13 Itsaknockout
Pedigree: Lemon Drop Kid - Stormy B (Cherokee Run)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 4-3-0-0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 93-91-101
Betting a knockout by either boxer in the Pacquiao-Mayweather fight will pay approximately $425 profit while putting $100 at risk. If Itsaknockout wins the Kentucky Derby it will certainly come at higher odds than that. Itsaknockout is a true longshot based on fading finishes in the last 2 races - albeit on tiring tracks. CSIs are off-the-chart low -- same with its Beyers of 76-88-82-74 -- pedestrian when we are talking about the Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆
14 Keen Ice
Pedigree: Curlin - Medomak (Awesome Again)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Record: 7-1-0-2
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 92-97-97
Keen Ice is the Locks’ Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick* for this year. After breaking maiden has lost its last 5 races by a combined 40+ lengths. Speed figs (Brisnet, Beyer, CSIs) show that this one is several lengths slower than the field. Running style may allow this one to crack the top half of the field but isn’t going to let this one slip into the winner’s circle.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
* If Keen Ice wins the Derby - I will wear a pink Tom Brady Jersey women's size medium on my next airline flight.
* If Keen Ice wins the Derby - I will wear a pink Tom Brady Jersey women's size medium on my next airline flight.
Speaking of Tom Brady - I am actually quite concerned that the NFL is not being fair to the New England Patriots -- seems as though the NFL is cruelly giving the Pats this notion of hope and not giving the Pats sufficient time and notice to find a new coach and QB for the upcoming season. We all know that the NFL Wells report on the deflategate controversy will expose the deliberate and nefarious practices of flaunting league rules by both Coach Bill Belichick aka Coach Creepy and QB Tom Brady....the report undoubtedly recommend a life-time ban for Belichick and 2-year suspension of Brady and that the Pats will need to vacate their Super Bowl XLIX victory. With everyone else in the world knowing that this will be a certainty - its surprising that the NFL hasn’t made this public so the Pats can address their impending openings at coach and QB. Wonder if Tom Brady will be too busy to attend the Kentucky Derby this year as he was when he couldn't visit the White House -- if he does make it I'm sure he will be shadowing Wes Welker's bets - especially if WW is on a roll.
15 Frosted
Pedigree: Tapit - Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 7-2-4-0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 105-102-100
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’ Godolphin Stable has won almost every major horse in the world - almost - as the Kentucky Derby remains elusive to the biggest and most expensive worldwide horse racing operation. Out of the 8 Godolphin horses that have lined up for the Derby - the best finish has been a 6th by China Visit in 2000. Frosted like many Godolphin horses is stacked on the pedigree front - Tapit is the leading sire and the dame is a graded stakes winner of over $500k. Frosted looked like was going to the best chance of the Godolphin’s horses but then a fading 4th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes made Frosted look ordinary. With Frosted’s clunker in the Fountain of Youth in mind - trainer Kiaran McLaughlin made more changes than Bruce Jenner - changed rider to Joel Rosario, changed type of blinkers, and changed running style -- and the results showed the difference. Frosted came off the pace to prevail in the Wood Memorial recording triple digit Beyers, Brisnet and CSIs
and a 12.5 closing 1/8th. Frosted had a significantly faster final and last 1/8th time than the Gazelle winner Condo Commando - if CC wins the Oaks may give Frosted added consideration. McLaughlin feels that Frosted could be his best Godolphin Derby prospect but also admits that there are other very good horses in then field.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
16 War Story
Pedigree: Northern Afleet - Belle Watling (Pulpit)
Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss
Jockey: Joe Tamalo
Record: 5-2-2-1
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 94-99-94
War Story seems to be the horse that is like the guy that comes to a party but no one remembers that they were there. Nice but nothing more than that. 2 2nds and 1 3rd in 3 graded stakes starts...OK. Trend of rising Beyer speed figs 75-86-86-91-91....that’s fine. A $51k purchase at the less than sexy Fasig sale in Maryland in May....hoh hum. Has closed races with energy but no Brisnet Late pace figures over 100...satisfactory.
Seems this one is destined to be lost in the crowd - won’t be last but certainly won’t be first.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
17 Mr. Z.
Pedigree: Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear (Storm Cat)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Record: 12-1-4-4
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-98-105
The 3rd string for Zayat stables but will ensure D. Wayne Lukas aka the Foster Grant Kid gets his 48th starter in the Derby with results of: 4 winners &10 in the $ finishes. Just when you thought the Old Coach was down and out -- in 2013 -- D. Wayne made lemonade out of lemons with Oxbow and Will Take Charge. In the 2013 Locks I had given Oxbow 2 stars and Will Take Charge 1 star.....they finished a respectable 6th and 8th but then Oxbow went on to win the Preakness and Will Take Charge won the Travers. The Locks will again dismiss another D. Wayne charge as the Locks can’t encourage anyone to bet on Mr. Z -- last win was over 10 months ago, has raced against 11 (including only horse to race against Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah and International Star) of the Derby horses - not winning any of those races. The Locks tries to avoid horses with more than a debut clunker - Mr Z has at least 3 clunkers. D. Wayne prove the Locks wrong.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
18 American Pharoah
Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Record: 4-3-0-0
Morning Line Odds: 5/2
Last 3 Race CSIs: 105-108-103
May be the Derby favorite.. American Pharoah may be aptly named as Zayat Stables like some of the old pharaohs of ancient times has built their equine empire on the backs of others and at a time gratis. Zayat went bankrupt citing predatory lending practices from banks but leaving many in the industry holding the bag http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/sports/20100302_ZAYAT_DOC.pdf as part of emerging from Chapter 11 agreed to pay everything he owed 100% and perhaps horses like this one has helped pay off their Hellenic sized debt. Based on similarities, American Pharoah may also be called Bodemeister II -- both owned by Zayat, trained by Baffert, both impressively won the Arkansas Derby in 8+ widening lengths, both started career on West Coast, both run and win on the front-end-setting-the-pace style - both sole loss was their debut start. Bodemeister went on - as the Derby favorite - to click off incredibly fast fractions (:45.1, 1:09.1, 1:35) only to run out of gas in the last 1/8th mile and finish 2nd. But actually looking a little bit closer it seems American Pharoah isn’t quite as good as Bodemeister was coming into the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister’s speed figs in the Derby preps were a click faster - Bode was able to finish the Arkansas Derby in a better time and stronger energy - Bode’s pedigree suggested more stamina. Also consider American Pharoah’s time in the Arkansas Derby also didn’t hold up well against the time lodged by older handicap horses in the Oaklawn Handicap raced in the same conditions - AP was more than .5 second slower and also closing furlong time didn’t hold up. (last year Danza’s winning time compared more favorably against arguably a better group of handicap horses). American Pharoah already is a champion but the 2yo champion since 1978 has only won the Derby once (Street Sense). However, the biggest detractor at low odds on AP may be the colt’s running style of wanting to be on the lead - setting the pace has only proven effective for a Derby winner in races where it could be easily predicted that the speed would hold up.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
19 Upstart
Pedigree: Flatter - Party Silks (Touch Gold)
Trainer: Richard A. Violette, Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 7-3-3-1
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-96-108
Upstart reminds me a lot of 2013 Kentucky Derby runner Itsmyluckyday..both started at 4 different tracks prior to coming to Churchill Downs - both were outfinished to end up 2nd in the Florida Derby - both have a comparatively high Brisnet Primer Power figure - Itsmyluckyday (3rd) and Upstart (2nd) - both trained by seasoned trainers on local circuits rather than on the national stage. Very difficult to gauge actual times for Florida Derby day as the track was playing extraordinarily slow but can gauge the times on Fountain of Youth vs. other dirt races running about 1 mile. 3yo fillies and older fillies and mares in extrapolating out times would have beat Upstart by several lengths. Also as a New York-bred ridgling a win would be one for the record books - no ridgling has ever won the Derby and the last and only NY-bred to win the Derby was Funny Cide in 2003...Funny Cide was a NY-bred ridgling but was gelded (ouch!) prior to the Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
20 Far Right
Pedigree: Notional - Zindi (Vindication)
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 8-3-2-2
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 97-99-107
Lumped in with songs that were more popular than the movies they came from - such as Aerosmith’s “Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” from the movie Armageddon (see note below), Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You” from the Bodyguard, and Bryan Adam’s “Everything I Do I Do It for You” from that Robin Hood flick - there was Phil Collins’ “Against All Odds” from the schlocky movie of the same title. (If you recall, Phil Collins, despite decent music roots of being an original member of the band, Genesis, but once taking off on a solo career - he was the 1980s version of what Maroon 5 is today -- creating musical drivel for the masses.)
Well, ‘Against All Odds’ could also be the title of the movie biopic of Far Right. A $2,500 purchase at Keeneland’s sometimes overlooked January sale where the average auction price of the rest of the field is $325,000. Far Right also is a ridgling aka cryptorchid (google that one) - no ridgling has ever won the Derby. Although there are exceptions (AP Indy, for instance) usually ridglings are fully gelded like in the case of Funny Cide. But this one has overcome the odds and has won 3 races including a race at Churchill Downs. CSIs, Brisnet figs, and Beyers are quite ordinary but with a running style of coming off the pace - Far Right may come from the same mold as Commanding Curve and Golden Soul both overlooked by bettors but picked up runner up finishes in the last 2 editions of the Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
Reference above to Armageddon or better ARMageddon- which appears to be the chosen nom de pitching staff for baseball’s NY Mets this year. Stacked with talent in both starters and those coming from the bullpen - the NY Mets may have a chance to make the post-season this season (despite the handicap of an atrocious owner). Matt Harvey is back in ace form, Jacob deGrom the young gun, Bartolo Colon experiencing a revival and Jon Niese and Dillon Gee are more than capable back end starters - add La Familia, the Torres ‘brothers’ holding down the bullpen awaiting Jenrry Mejia to come back from PED suspension and Jerry Blevins to return from a broken forearm. The Mets also are missing one of its best young arms in Zack Wheeler who will be back next year after Tommy John surgery. The bats are also helping the cause with Lucas Duda knocking the cover off the ball and will wait for D Wright and d’Arnaud to recover from injuries and while this may not be 1986 all over again -- it may actually be watching meaningful baseball come September.
21 Frammento
Pedigree: Midshipman - Ginger Bay (Golden Missle)
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Record: 7-1-1-1
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 100-91-89
Draws in with the scratch of Stanford. Some of the best Brisnet late pace figures in the field. Only 1 win and that was 7 months ago. Good workout horse. Owner is the late Joseph Moss who made his money by investing spare money into the stock market.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
The Locks wagers:
$1 exacta #10 over all = $1 x 17 = $17
$1 exacta all over #10 = $1 x 17 = $17
$1 exacta box #6, #8, #10, #15, = $1 x 4 x 3 = $12
$1 trifecta #6, #8, #10, #15/ #6, #8, #10, #15/#6, #8, #10, #15 = $1 x 4 x 3 x 2 = $24
$1 exacta all over #10 = $1 x 17 = $17
$1 exacta box #6, #8, #10, #15, = $1 x 4 x 3 = $12
$1 trifecta #6, #8, #10, #15/ #6, #8, #10, #15/#6, #8, #10, #15 = $1 x 4 x 3 x 2 = $24
$4 WP #6 = $6
$2 WP #5 = $4
$1 exacta #10, #8,#5,#20 = $1x3x4= $12
Total = $92
***UPDATE***
Lovely Maria (Oaks winner) time winning the Ashland compared favorably to Carpe Diem's Blue Grass Stakes....it made the Locks discount Carpe Diem but unfortunately didn't compel the Locks to bet on LM in the Oaks....locksa culpa....noting that International Star's Louisiana Derby was significantly faster than the Louisiana Oaks which included the 2nd and 3rd place fillies in the Oaks. International Star at 20-1 may be worth additional consideration. International Star SCRATCHED
Post-Mortem: Firing Line 2nd; Dortmund 3rd; Frosted 4th;Mubtaahij 8th; Danzig Moon 5th.
Won $36.30 on $92 bet.
$2 WP #5 = $4
$1 exacta #10, #8,#5,#20 = $1x3x4= $12
Total = $92
***UPDATE***
Lovely Maria (Oaks winner) time winning the Ashland compared favorably to Carpe Diem's Blue Grass Stakes....it made the Locks discount Carpe Diem but unfortunately didn't compel the Locks to bet on LM in the Oaks....locksa culpa....
Post-Mortem: Firing Line 2nd; Dortmund 3rd; Frosted 4th;Mubtaahij 8th; Danzig Moon 5th.
Won $36.30 on $92 bet.
In the Oaks -
◎ 10 Oceanwave 30-1
$5 WP on #10; $1 ex box #10, #12, #5, #3
◎ 10 Oceanwave 30-1
○ 5 Condo Commando 4-1
▲ 12 Stellar Wind 7/2
△ 3 Include Betty 20-1$5 WP on #10; $1 ex box #10, #12, #5, #3
Oaks/Derby Double #10, #5, #12 w/ #10, #8, #6 = $2 x 3 x 3 = $18
In the first leg of the English Triple Crown - 2000 Guineas:
◎ Bossy Guest 80-1
○ Gleneagles 5-2
▲ Intilaaq 10-1
△ Territories 6-1"Fight of the Century"
Pacquiao + 200
3 comments:
Great read as always brah... look forward to seeing you out in the lineup next time Jaws is firing.
-Slater
Thanks Kelly....hang loose...
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