2013 Kentucky Derby - The Locks

2013 Kentucky Derby

The Locks Are In....

Recently someone looking over my shoulder on a flight seeing that I was poring over the past performances for a Keeneland race card had asked me “Do you like gambling?”  and I politely replied “This isn’t gambling.  I am studying horses.”   The guy went back watching his movie and I went on analyzing the races.    Studying and wagering on horse racing is far from gambling.   Gambling is based on not knowing the outcome.   Armed with sufficient amount of the right information - having a good understanding of the actual outcome is possible.  The Kentucky Derby is certainly a unique race and thus having all the right information may not actually yield the expected results - there are so many horses and issues such as traffic, a slipped saddle, a clipped heel, a jockey’s nerves.  Additionally odds in the Kentucky Derby aren’t going to actually reconcile to the actual probability of winning the race.   Due to the pari-mutuel nature of the odds and the human element of betting on horses because of name or a personal interest story or the color of jockey silks or connections to the horse or interpreting the data incorrectly - there is going to be money bet on horses that can not and will not win.  Those unable-to-win horses real true odds are really 1,000,000 - 1 because if ran the same race that many times that same horse may never win not really 20-1 or 30-1 or 40-1 that they may get bet down to.   As such the payouts on real contenders that don’t have “fluff” attached to them can be inflated to the smart bettors favor.   This is what the locks are looking for - inefficiencies in the odds.    

First we want to look for horses that can win and to pick winners - I look for horses that fit the Locks Winning Pattern:  those that can win, those that can run fast and those that conform to history.  Winners, Runners and Conformers 

Winners:   Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career.  Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and with at least 3 wins. 

Runners:  Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race. 

Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books

Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1). 

This years runners with only 1 win are: Palace Malice, Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Golden Soul.   And those with only 2 are:  Oxbow, Mylute, Charming Kitten, Giant Finish. 

Runners
I’ve believe the old adage “Pace makes the race”.   I would call myself a student of Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping.  In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold you’ll need to break out your past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits. 

Because of a change in how horses qualify for the Kentucky Derby this year has a serious knock-on impact on the pace of the race and thus who will be the potential winner.   Previously, qualification for the Derby was based on earnings in graded stakes races - all these earnings being equal as such winning $100,000 in a graded sprint race as a two year old would be treated the same as winning $100,000 in a two-turn race a few weeks ahead of the Derby.  So in the past you could have a horse like last year’s Trinniberg that never raced beyond 7 furlongs but was lightening fast and won stakes races at short distances.   Trinniberg was somewhat responsible in pushing Bodemeister to a hot pace which resulted in Bode getting leg weary in the last furlong and I’ll Have Another snatching victory.   This year there was a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” point system created and horses needed to earn points by running and winning or placing in selected races.   Those historic key prep races a few weeks before the Derby such as the Wood, the Blue Grass, the Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby and the UAE Derby had higher point totals associated with them.   Whereas certain key 2yo races - even the Breeders Cup Juvenile only would give a horse a mere fraction of points awarded to those other races.   None of the races selected to allow a horse to earn these qualification points were sprint races.   As such a    confirmed sprinter who wanted to enter into the Derby would have to run and place in a route race to even consider getting into the Derby.  So this year we have no sprinters trying to stretch out and as such we should expect to see a slower pace.   Expectation is that Falling Sky, Verrazano, Goldencents should set the pace and may be able to set the pace at splits of :48, 1:12, 1:37 - this changes the complexion of the race and makes it difficult for horses like confirmed deep closer Java War, Golden Soul to make up ground.  It is very possible that a horse like Goldencents can go wire-to-wire.   So in looking for a winner, I’ve looked at horses that have some versatility and shown the ability to close off slow paces.  

Conformers
I value history and many of you who have read the Locks before know that I was only 1 class shy of being a History minor at Georgetown.   Would have been able to minor in History but I chose to complete my requirements by taking an advanced Russian History class where it required more studying than watching Dr Zhivago drinking Cossack vodka Bloody Marys - after the mid-term the professor advised me to drop the class.  But even without actual qualifications as a historian I do like to look at chronological records of the Derby when betting as there is 138 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:

· Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last 16 years have been quite telling only 2 horses with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a last race CSI of 105.85.  This year 11 horses in the 20 horse field have sub-100 CSIs.   Included in the sub-100 club is Orb and Revolutionary - 2 horses I feel have a good shot at the Derby win but certainly will go off at odds less than 20-1 - I have my reasons.  In the same 16 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in the final two prep races.  This year only Golden Soul, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, Orb, Oxbow, Revolutionary, Verrazano, Will Take Charge have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races.

· Since 1955 only 1 horse (Iron Leige in 1957, Historical reference,Wham-O makes the first Frisbee) finished 5th or worse in its final prep before the Derby and went on to win the Derby.  Only Oxbow has real clunker last race finish.  

· On the same vein, last time a horse finished 3rd in its final prep before the Derby and then won was Unbridled’s victory in 1990 (historical reference: Gorbachev wins the Nobel Peace prize). Vyjack, Charming Kitten, Giant Finish all came in 3rd in last race.

· No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a 2yo. (Historical reference: Vincent Van Gogh is painting his early works). Verrazanno is unraced as a 2yo.

· Only one non-US trained horse has won the Derby that was Venezuela’s Canonero II in 1971.  No European trained horse has won the Derby....since the end of World War II there have been 26 that have tried -- only Bold Arrangement was a runner-up (1986).  Lines of Battle comes to Louisville after being trained in Europe.

Only 4 horses since 1900 (historical reference: first hamburger sandwich is made), have won after being sprung from gates 17-20.

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After going through this process of weeding out contenders and pretenders - we want to also to take into account odds and avoiding those that may be overbet beyond the horses ability to win the race.  Through that analysis we’ve developed a Locks Rating assigned to each horse.      

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In the Mix

Hmmmmm....Interesting....But......

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The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line Odds
	Orb Overanalyze	Orb Verrazano
	Normandy Invasion Revolutionary Goldencents Black Onyx	Goldencents Revolutionary Normandy Invasion, Itsmyluckyday
	Verrazano Mylute Itsmyluckyday Java War Lines of Battle	Vyjack Overanalyze Mylute Java War Palace Malice Charming Kitten
	Vyjack Giant Finish Palace Malice Oxbow Charming Kitten	Will Take Charge Oxbow Lines of Battle
	Golden Soul  Will Take Charge Frac Daddy Falling Sky	Black Onyx Golden Soul  Frac Daddy Falling Sky Giant Finish

The Horse-by-Horse Locks Analysis:

1 Black Onyx

Pedigree: Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat (Cape Town)

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: Joe Bravo

Record: 5-3-1-0

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 110-107-78

Rifting off the name of this colt, would like to note that Black Caviar whom could be the best sprinting race-mare we’ll see in our generation has recently retired in Australia.   I cherished the opportunity to see Black Caviar at Royal Ascot with 80,000 other people last year. The Diamond Jubilee Stakes proved to be Black Caviar’s biggest test and she won despite the jockey standing up in the saddle to early and almost letting a rival slip by.  Black Onyx, like Black Caviar, has a near black coat and is beautiful horse - so much so was the favorite of the photographers covering the workouts at Churchill Downs this week.  Has had 2 solid works at Churchill Downs.  Think that this horse will certainly out run its odds and has a shot of placing.  Very high last 2 race, CSIs also caught my eye.  In the Spiral was able win going away despite having to run wide the whole race.  Has a turf win and the win in the Spiral was on a synthetic surface but shouldn’t be concerned about running on the Churchill Downs true dirt based on the breeding.  Look at the last 2 winners of the Spiral, Derby and Dubai World Cup champ, Animal Kingdom, and last year’s 4th place finisher, Went the Day Well.  

The Locks Verdict:  

2 Oxbow

Pedigree: Awesome Again - Tizamazing (Cee’s Tizzy)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Gary Stevens

Record: 9-2-1-1

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 97-106-101

The reunion of D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens with Oxbow is a bit like getting a little long-in-the-tooth Batman and Robin together.  This dynamic duo of a Foster Grant wearing former basketball coach (D. Wayne) and a made-for-TV consummate professional (Stevens) won the Derby together with Winning Colors in 1988 and Thunder Gulch in 1995.  But D. Wayne hasn’t had a Derby win since Charismatic unexpectedly won in 1999 for owners Robert and Beverly Lewis.  

My brother and I probably witnessed the beginning of the end of D. Wayne’s 80s-90s domination of the Triple Crown during the preview for the 1997 Keeneland July sale.... The Keeneland July sale is a now-defunct sale - but was the top select sale on the calendar.  The sale was at night and while the auction ring saw Godolphin, Coolmore, the Aga Khan plus others with new found internet IPO wealth and their bloodstock agents battle each other for million dollar+ and near million dollar horseflesh -  there was a rocking cocktail party going on in the back bar with side bets being made on what price the hammer would fall on these beautiful yearlings.  During the day, my brother Bill and I roamed the barns with the potential buyers in the preview of the sale.   Bill and I acted like we knew what we were doing and pulled a few of these young colts and fillies for the consignors to show us.   At one point, we asked to look at a Storm Cat colt out of a Pleasant Colony mare, horse that night went on to sell for $1.5m - it was graded stakes winner, successful stallion Forestry.  During that preview,  we found ourselves between to fairly quiet barns and saw D. Wayne and BobLewis on a bench talking - we opportunely sat down on a bench that backed up to theirs to overhear their conversation.   To set the stage - D. Wayne had been a the Lewises trainer for a number of years campaigning the likes of Serena’s Song for them but that year Bob Baffert also had a few of the Lewis’ horses and just nearly won the Triple Crown for them with Silver Charm.   Now back to the barns at Keeneland...D. Wayne was making his case for he and not Bob Baffert to buy at the sale for the Lewis’ and did so by talking of their long standing relationship, the successes they’ve shared and then he compared his work ethic to Baffert’s - quoted “I don’t think Bob (Baffert) has ever seen the sun rise unless he was just coming in from the night before”.  The Lewis’ ended up buying horses that night with D. Wayne.  But, the 5 horses he bought in total of price of $1.9m - only 1 raced more than 7 times - the 4 others in total had only 10 starts and won in aggregate $42,000.   The Lewis’ let Baffert buy for them at the sale across town at the Fasig-Tipton sale - where he bought, Straight Man, a Saint Ballado colt for $290,000 who went on to win graded stakes and ended up as a stallion. 

As I digress.....Oxbow.....hmmmmmm.....has a win at CD but only going 7 furlongs.  Other win was when Oxbow on very soft fractions ran away with the LeComte at Fair Grounds.   Stevens will try to win on the front end  - will be mildly pushed by Goldencents, Falling Sky and Verrazano but in the end don’t think Oxbow will be there.

The Locks Verdict: 

3 Revolutionary

Pedigree: War Pass - Runup the Colors (AP Indy)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Record: 6-3-1-2

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 97-102-104

Despite a fairly accomplished field in the Derby, only Verrazano, Vyjack and Revolutionary have never been out of the money in all their starts.  A good trait for the Derby Winning Patterns.  Revolutionary has also proven that the colt has the poise to get out of trouble.   In the Withers, with a turn of foot, Revolutionary split horses to gain victory - some other horses may shy from such a challenge.    Also Revolutionary ran in the 14 horse field Louisiana Derby - fighting off Mylute in the stretch to win.  There may be some skeptics that feel that Revolutionary hasn’t raced against the top competition - actually - in the Fair Grounds race - Revolutionary actually beat Departing - a colt that may end up with the 3yo title come year end.  Departing, convincingly, won the Illinois Derby against a large competitive field but is skipping the Derby for perhaps the Preakness or maybe other 3yo prizes such as the Haskell or the Travers.  Revolutionary will be in the second flight of horses and you’ll likely find him on the rail.  Calvin Borel gets the ride and it is not only legend that Borel likes to save ground and ride in the inside (thus the nickname Bo”rail”)- it has been proven by the good folks at Trakus that horses that Borel rides travel on average more than a horse length less than the average horse.   In the last 2 wins, Revolutionary liked to keep things close and interesting as such an extra length or 2 could be the difference between winning and losing.

The Locks Verdict:   

4 Golden Soul

Pedigree: Perfect Soul(IRE) - Hollywood Gold (Mr. Prospector)

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Robby Albarado

Record: 5-1-2-0

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 92-99-95

Too much for this one to overcome to win.   WIll be coming too far off the pace to win.  Like Todd Pletcher, Dallas Stewart is a protege of D. Wayne Lukas.  Also looks like he is still rocking the same hair style (think Huey Lewis meets Daryl Hall) that was popular during DWLs hey-day.   If this colt wins - I will let the New England Patriots repossess my soul in the after life.  

The Locks Verdict: 

5 Normandy Invasion

Pedigree: Tapit - Boston Lady (Boston Harbor)

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Record: 5-1-2-0

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 107-100-106

I don’t have to be equine athletic psychologist, Kerry Thomas, the developer of the Thomas Herding Technique and the writer of the Kentucky Derby Patterns of Motion Analysis, to psychoanalyze this colt.  I’m not sure if the horse wants to win and likely is very happy running with others explaining only 1 victory to the colt’s name.   If you look at the replay of the Remsen, Normandy Invasion was ready to cruise on by Overanalyze but when those horses came on even terms - Normandy Invasion caught the eye of his rival and stayed with the horse stride for stride.   In the Wood also Normandy Invasion ended up galloping out past Verrazano but in full run wasn’t able (willing??) to get past.   

Colt certainly is talented and showed that the distance won’t be an issue. Also this week showed he loves the track popping off a :59.0 - 5 furlong work. Normandy Invasion is out of a top sire, Tapit.  In all of the Triple Crown nominees, the top sire represented was Tapit with 11 of his sons being put forward by their owners.  

Feeling here is that Normandy Invasion will very likely be in the mix at the end but will the colt want to win.  

The Locks Verdict: 

6 Mylute

Pedigree: Midnight Lute - Stage Stop (Valid Expectations)

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

Record: 9-2-3-2

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 97-99-111

Mylute is a horse that I tagged early as a potential Derby horse - at that point - Mylute had just come off a 10+ length victory and had the highest late pace Brisnet # of all 369 Triple Crown nominees - with that I made a Derby futures bet on the colt at 123-1.     I was ready to toss my ticket when Mylute in its next start finished 7th.  But a closer look at that race is the fact that 8 horses finished within 3 lengths of the lead and probably the deepest prep race as 5 out of the 12 runners in that race will also run for the roses.   Tom Amoss also felt that Mylute was still a good horse as the colt was then entered into the Louisiana Derby.   When I went to look at this race I noted that Mylute was going to go off at long odds, 19-1, I keyed Mylute on both sides of an exacta and was rooting this  gray home -  only for Revolutionary to snatch victory at the end - I ended up still winning a nice exacta - although not quite the result if Mylute held on to win.  With points from the 2nd place finish - Mylute got its invite to Louisville and my futures bet is still alive.    As to Mylute’s chances to win - I am not concerned about the pedigree as the colts paternal grandfather and maternal great grandfather have both won the Derby.  My view is that this colt stood toe-to-toe with Revolutionary who will certainly go off at much lower odds than Mylute - so if you are willing to bet Revolutionary at 10-1 - you should put a wager on Mylute at 15-1.   It should be noted that Mylute with Rosie on board may get bet down to close to Revolutionary’s odds.  So the Locks will be wary and be happy with my existing 123-1 futures bet.

The Locks Verdict: 

7  Giant Finish

Pedigree: Frost Giant - Apocalyptic (Hickman Creek)

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: J. Espinoza

Record: 5-2-1-1

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 107-112-96

Giant Finish would need a giant leap forward to win the Derby. This Fair Hill trainee  has two in the money finishes in 2 of the Turfway Park stakes is a positive as well as the fact that Giant Finish’s only out of the money finish was due to an off track.   But Giant Finish’s only 2 wins come against restricted company - New York State breds.  If Giant Finish was to win - would be only the 2nd NYS bred to win in the race’s 139 years of history - Funny Cide being the other.   As a gelding, Giant Finish doesn’t seem aptly named  - geldings haven’t fared well in the Derby - Funny Cide also was gelded so was surprise winner, Mine That Bird but then you would have to go back to 1929 with Clyde Van Dusen to find a gelded Derby winner.  

The Locks Verdict:

8 Goldencents

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Golden Works (Banker’s Gold)

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Jockey: Kevin Krigger

Race Record: 6-4-1-0

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-105-105

Goldencents has a lot of things in common with last year’s Derby winner I’ll Have Another.   Both trained by Doug O’Neill, both having a rookie (to the Derby) jockey, both coming off victories in the Santa Anita Derby, both having a running of style of being on or near the pace, both rebounded from out of the money finishes to win important races, both were purchased as yearlings for less than you’d pay for a used Volkswagon.  Many know that this horse is owned in part by NCAA Champion Louisville basketball head coach RIck Pitino but few know the story of the horse rise from a $5,500 yearling to winning $1.25m and entering the starting gate on the first Saturday of May as one of the favorites. Check it out here: http://www.aikenstandard.com/article/20130429/AIK0101/130429458/1022/AIK03/kentucky-derby-entry-received-his-start-in-south-carolina  Goldencents has a legitimate shot at winning the Derby - has high speed figures - was able to win or put in a good showing away from Santa Anita - could benefit from a race that may be devoid of a true rabbit  - beat Mylute and Itsmyluckyday.   

The Locks Verdict:  

9 Overanalyze

Pedigree: Dixie Union - Unacloud (Unaccounted For)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Record: 7-4-0-1

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 102-96-106

Overanalyze and Orb have a couple things in common....same 7-4-0-1 race record also they share 2 wins at 9 furlongs - both can come off the pace but won’t necessarily be far back in the field - both have had great workouts at Churchill Downs this week - Overanalyze put a :47.0 4 furlong bullet in the holster - also both horses have been knocked on how slow their last races were but I feel that both let a slow pace unfold and then when asked to run in the last furlong both responded.  But think I can say with some certainty that the owners of these 2 horses don’t mingle in the same social circles.   Just imagine Overanalyze owner Vitaminwater billionaire Mike Repole showing up in NY Mets zubaz pants to one of Ogden Phipps’ Palm Beach or Park Avenue cocktail parties.  “Yo Dinny-man, you guys got any clams casino at this shin-dig!”  They actually may have something to talk about as they compare their Derby hopeful’s decent chances to win.  15-1 odds would be great to get on this horse but have to be concerned that Mike Repole with a bet or two of his sugar-water billions can swing odds even in the Kentucky Derby.

The Locks Verdict:

10 Palace Malice

Pedigree: Curlin - Palace Rumor (Royal Anthem)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Mike Smith

Record: 6-1-3-1

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-90-101

Palace Malice will be Cot Campbell and his Dogwood Stable’s 8th attempt at winning the Derby.  Dogwood has had some success at the Derby but yet to score a victory -  Summer Squall in 1990 snatched 2nd, Impeachment in 2000 grabbed 3rd while Limehouse in 2004 had a 4th.  Despite some positives such as a pedigree that can get the Derby distance and being ridden by Hall of Famer, Mike Smith, Cot may have to wait for his 9th entry to get a win as Palace Malice doesn’t follow the Locks Derby Winning Pattern.  Like Frac Daddy and Normandy Invasion, only comes into the Derby with only a Maiden victory.   Garret Gomez is jumping off PM for Vyjack.  Speed figs also seem just below par. 

The Locks Verdict: 

11 Lines of Battle

Pedigree: War Front - Black Speck (Arch)

Trainer: Aidan O”Brien

Jockey: R. Moore

Record: 6-3-1-0

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-87-xx

Have to admit that my brother tabbed this one almost a year ago after an early 2 year old victory at the Curragh - as he liked the top European connections (O’Brien (trainer) and Coolmore (owner)) and the American bloodlines - including having its dam sired by Arch - the same dam sire as last year’s Derby winner, I’ll Have Another and 2011 early Derby favorite, Uncle Mo.   Knowing the horse, seeing a victory on a similar surface and then looking at Trakus data on the colt’s 7th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf,  I bet (with success) on this one in the UAE Derby run on Dubai World Cup undercard.  Trakus uses data from tracking chips to measure actual speed and distances horses run in races.  This data showed that despite coming in 6 lengths behind the winner in the BC Juv Turf - Lines of Battle actually ran a faster race than the winner because of a wide trip added more than the length of defeat to the colt’s race - so if ran the same distance as the winner - Lines of Battle would have won.  In the UAE Derby, Lines of Battle showed grit and determination in holding off a rival down the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths.  The UAE Derby is a race that is longer than any Kentucky Derby prep thus may sufficient prepare the colt for the Derby distance.   Sounds all good - there is some other info to know....last year’s UAE Derby winner, Daddy Long Legs finished near the back of the pack at the 2012 Ky. Derby.  This year’s UAE Derby compared to the winning time of the Dubai World Cup would have put Lines of Battle about 25+ lengths behind 2011 Ky Derby and this year’s Dubai World Cup winner, Animal Kingdom.   Says something about Animal Kingdom’s monster performance but also may say that this one isn’t yet fast enough to win the DerbyThe Locks Verdict:

12 Itsmyluckyday

Pedigree: Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew (Doneraile Court)

Trainer: Edward Plesa

Jockey: Elvis Trujillo

Record: 10-5-2-1

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 93-110-103

ItsMyLuckyDay - sounds like an ‘80s sitcom** - and as such it doesn’t surprise me Triology Stables, the owner of Itsmyluckyday, has silks that look like those sweaters that Bill Cosby and Mike Ditka over-wore in the late ‘80s.    With 10 starts at 4 different race tracks, Itsmyluckyday seems to be as experienced as ZsaZsa Gabor.    Pedigree and running form says 9 furlongs is this colt’s best distance and with the Derby being 10 furlongs - you may see this colt -  like Gabe Kaplan in the obstacle course on the Battle of Network Stars -- get leg weary.  Elvis Trujillo will be a Derby rookie and there have been only 2 other Derby rookies (Gutierrez on I’ll Have Another - 2012 and Stewart Elliot on Smarty Jones 2004) - since 1979 (year of the debut of the Dukes of Hazard) when rookie Ron Franklin won the Derby in brilliant fashion on Spectacular Bid.  With an open length victory in the slop - may give extra consideration on a wet track. 

The Locks Verdict:  

** Would envision Its My Lucky Day to star McLean Stevenson as a happy go-lucky teacher with four foster children played by Mackenzie Phillips, Todd Bridges, Eve Plumb, and Adam Rich, who wins a $1,000,000 (remember its the ‘80s) lottery and decides for he and his family to leave their middle class suburban life to go live on a cruise ship traveling the world.  On board, the kids open a private detective agency. The regulars on the show will include a nosy neighbor, an affable bartender, a lothario stowaway and slightly aloof captan. Guest stars every week. Hilarious hijinks on the high seas!

13 Falling Sky

Pedigree: Lion Heart - Sea Dragoness (Sea Hero)

Trainer: John Terranova

Jockey: Luis Saez

Record: 6-3-0-1

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 97-101-105

Like Verrazano, Falling Sky has an opportunity to follow his daddy’s footsteps by setting a pace in the Kentucky Derby and then trying to hold on for a piece of the pie.    In last 3 races, Falling Sky has been able to set moderate pace of :47.6 and 1:12 and change and then tried to hold on to the lead.   Unfortunately for this horse’s connections in the  last 2 races Falling Sky has folded late.  Don’t see colt faring better in the Derby.  

The Locks Verdict:

14 Verrazano

Pedigree: MoreThanReady-EnchantedRock(Giant’sCauseway)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 4-4-0-0

Morning Line Odds: 4-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 108-108-111

Named after either the first European explorer to sail into New York Harbor or the bridge that spans the narrows that creates such harbor connecting Brooklyn to Staten Island - but there is not much outer-borough about this colt.   Purchased for $250k, a son of a $60k  sire and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare giving the horse near regal bloodlines.   Running style also is quite haughty - as if the colt knows he is the best in the land and dares others to catch him.   A perfect 4 for 4 with the highest last 3 race average speed figs if you are using Beyers, Brisnet or CSIs.  Won the Tampa Derby with ease and held off all comers in the Wood.  Will likely be the post time favorite.   All sounds very good.....but.....just like those driving over the Verrazano Bridge for the first time and realize there is a $15 toll  - those betting on this colt may have some unwelcome surprises.  First off, this More Than Ready colt will follow the footsteps of his sire and will likely be close or near the lead during the race only to give way in the last furlong.   Verrazano seems to have peaked in performance at a mile distance and the stretch out for a full mile and a quarter may be too much.  Also last workout was nothing splashy described as “just OK”.   This colt  has many similarities to last years Derby runner up Bodemeister - as Bodemeister liked to be on or near the lead and was unraced as a 2yo - as noted above - we haven’t seen an unraced as a 2yo Derby winner since 1882.   Like Bodemeister, this colt may be talented enough to place but I don’t see the favorite in the winner’s circle.

The Locks Verdict:  

15 Charming Kitten

Pedigree: Kitten’s Joy - Iteration (Wild Again)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Edgar Prado

Record: 7-2-2-2

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 98-98-108

Charming Kitten has yet to race on real dirt and it might have shown in this week’s workouts -- Pletcher on Charming Kitten’s work “I thought Charming Kitten spun his wheels in the last 50 or 60 yards...” doesn’t seem like what a bettor would want to hear from a trainer.  Although Kitten’s Joy has established himself as an accomplished stallion it seems as though the only people that own, Kitten’s Joy progeny are Ken and Sarah Ramsey who own and raced the stud.   Naming convention of Charming Kitten’s siblings also is getting a bit monotonous  - Stephanie’s Kitten, Big Blue Kitten, Holiday for Kitten, Always Kitten, Admiral Kitten, Kitten’s Point, Artemus Kitten, Fear for Kitten, Kitten This...Kitten That...Kitten...Kitten...Kitten...Lucky thing for your ears is that you’ll probably won’t hear the word Kitten during the stretch drive of the Derby as this one won’t be in the picture.

The Locks Verdict:

16 Orb

Pedigree: Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty (Unbridled)

Trainer: Shug McGaughey

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 7-4-0-1

Morning Line Odds:     3.5-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-104-90

Shug doesn’t go to the Derby every year - in fact he hasn’t been here until he took Saarland here in 2002 and before that it wasn’t since 1989 when he walked Easy Goer and Awe Inspiring over from the backstretch.  He is a patient trainer and with the owners he works for don’t get caught up in Derby fever.   But I’m sure even the Phipps and Shug are giddy about Orb.   Orb has the elements of the Derby Winning Pattern - winner of four in a row - including having two 9 furlong victories - will come of the pace but showed in the Florida Derby that the colt can rate in mid pack before laying down a stretch drive - only history that Orb would be reshaping is that  a win would finally give Shug and the Phipps family their first Derby victory - after finishing 2nd with super-horse Easy Goer.  What else can we say about Orb -- Orb probably had the most impressive workout of the week of the Derby contenders going 4f in :47.8.   Any knock that is coming on Orb is the fact that the Florida Derby was run in a slow time - well....slow compared to the Oaks race run the same day that Dreaming of Julia demolished.  But race still garnered a 97 Beyer, 97 Brisnet - I came to an epiphany on the slow time may be somewhat irrelevant while walking down a New York sidewalk behind a group of gawking tourists - I got to the end of block faster than these others but it took me longer than it normally would have if these tourists just stayed on the bus they rode in on.  Same thing on Orb --- if you look at the replay - Orb let the race play out with slow fractions ahead of him and then only started running in the last furlong - faster pace would have resulted in a faster time and still would have resulted in an Orb victory.  

The Locks Verdict:

17 Will Take Charge

Pedigree: Unbridled’s Song - Take Charge Lady (Dehere)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jon Court

Record: 7-3-1-0

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 106-82-103

Will Take Charge will attempt to win the Derby off of a 7 week layoff  - there has been no  other winner that has taken such a break since Monarchos did so in 2000.  The old basketball coach, trainer D Wayne Lukas might have hoped that this one was called “Will Take a Charge”.    Beyond a nice pedigree and wins in unperfect conditions - don’t see this one finishing the race among the top 10 horses.

The Locks Verdict:  

18 Frac Daddy

Pedigree: Scat Daddy - Skipper’s Mate (Skip Away)

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Victor Lebron

Record: 6-1-3-0

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 98-78-93

Frac Daddy is owned in part by, Carter Stewart, a petroleum geologist and is named for a oil and gas field technique, fracking which releases petroleum and natural gas from the ground.   That is going to be the first and last time you hear about that as we don’t expect Mr. Stewart to be in the winner’s circle explaining to the world media about the horses name.   According to the Locks Winning Patterns, Frac Daddy is very very unlikely to win as the colt is not a Winner nor a Runner nor a Conformer.  The colt has only 1 win, came home in last 3 furlongs of the Arkansas Derby in a dawdling 40 seconds, and would be bucking historical trend in being one of a couple of Derby winners including 50-1 shot Giacomo with only a maiden victory on the resume.  Trying to keep on the positive - Frac Daddy is the only horse in the field with a 2 turn victory at Churchill Downs and did battle mightily down the stretch at CD to narrowly lose the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes in November.   But since then hasn’t been competitive in 3 graded stakes tries.   Victor Lebron (not to be confused with NBA championship victor Lebron) gets his first opportunity to ride in the Derby. 

The Locks Verdict:  

19 Java’s War

Pedigree: War Pass - Java (GB) (Rainbow Quest)

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Race Record: 7-3-1-1

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-92

Java’s War is something of an interesting play.   The Ken McPeek trainee certainly will get the distance - with a pedigree on the mare side that average win distance is around 12 furlongs (1 1/2m).  Based on pedigree and only 2 runs out out of 7 on dirt, handicappers and bettors may dismiss the colt as a “turf horse” thus getting decent odds.  But looking closer the 2 starts on the dirt are actually decent performances - including a run on the Churchill Downs oval.  At the Kentucky Jockey Club, colt finished 6th - 5.5 lengths from the winner - but that was in a field of 13, gave the field a head start, had to go 6 wide and had to close under very slow fractions.  A hard closing 2nd to Verrazano in Tampa Bay Derby also is something to consider.  The win in the Blue Grass is one that may be the most complex to figure out....overall the horse had to go 7 wide and close under fairly pedestrian fractions which is impressive in its own right - but recent history has not been so kind to winners of the Blue Grass.  Last year Dullahan’s win did parlay a show finish in the Derby but recent Blue Grass Stakes winners have included some forgettable names like Monba (20th in Ky Derby), Dominican (11th), and Stately Victor (8th).  Despite a late closing kick to win the Blue Grass, Java War’s last 2 furlongs was the 2nd slowest in the Blue Grass in the last 7 years.   One other issue that Java’s War has is trouble getting out of the gate - kind of like an author with  writer’s block in starting a story - the Olde Tyme guys who wrote the fairy tales had it right when they agreed let’s just start off every story with “Once upon a time......”.   But without a “Once upon a time....” panacea for the starting gate - also by breaking slowly from post 19 Java’s War will find himself at the back of the pack in a race where deep closers may have too much to do at the end to win the race.   

The Locks Verdict:

20 Vyjack

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Life Happened (Stravinsky)

Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Record: 5-4-0-1

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 107-100-111

When I started handicapping the Derby - on the surface I liked Vyjack as its difficult not to consider these factors:  4 wins out of 5 tries.   Huge late pace Brisnet figures in last 2.    Solid Beyers, Brisnet, and CSI figures. Garret Gomez gets the ride.  Trainer does well with horses that he ships.    Will do well on a wet track.  Out of the same first year sire as Goldencents, Into Mischief.  But then I started to like others and the fact that I wasn’t fully sold on Verrazano - I lost some interest as I didn’t think his Wood was visually impressive.  Post 20, ugh. Also trainer has not stellar reputation. Vyjack hasn’t raced anywhere except Aqueduct.  God love ‘em.  For those that haven’t been to Aqueduct since forever - the most memorable thing about the track is seagulls and second-hand smoke.  If you happen to be a big fan of either of those - this is your place - like most people I prefer to bet Aqueduct via TwinsSpires.com  

The Locks Verdict: 

A/E Fear the Kitten

Pedigree: Kitten’s Joy - Dynarhythm (Dynaformer)

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Alan Garcia

Record: 7-2-1-1

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-106-89

Will only get in race with a late scratch.....shouldn’t change analysis if gets in race.

The Locks Verdict:   

The Locks Wagers:

Orb is my top pick but being the favorite - won't get much value so only keeping Orb in the exotics.

$20 Win Overanalyze

$1 Exacta Saver All over Overanalyze

$5 Exacta Overanalyze, Orb/Overanalyze, Orb, Normandy Invasion

$5 WPS Black Onyx

$1 Exacta Box  Orb, Overanalyze, Black Onyx, Normandy Invasion, Revolutionary, Goldencents

$1 Trifecta  16, 1, 9, 3/16, 1, 9, 3, 8, 5/16, 1, 9, 3, 8, 5

Good Luck!! And to the horses and the riders, have a safe trip - Vaya con Dios!