Grand National,Blue Grass Stakes, Arkanass Derby, Satsuki Sho - The Locks Picks the Winners

Great racing today  from morning until night.....the Locks is looking at 4 races in 3 continents.

Let's start in England...its Grand National at Aintree today.  40 horses will line up for a 4.5 mile jumps course....And the Locks likes:

◎  #34 Giles Cross 16/1
Hasn't been worse than 2nd in last 5 tries at races averaging about 30 furlongs
○ #16 According to Peat 28/1
Since January 2011 has only 1 out of the money finish.... has done ok in big field (over 20 horses) - 2 out 3 races in the money.
▲ #13 Seabass 16/1
Hasn't lost in last 6 races but at distances around 20 furlongs - so may be short for the Grand National but horse doesn't like to lose.
△ #2 Ballabriggs #12/1
Won the race last year - coming back again...
△ #14 Shakalakaboomboom 14/1
Will be one of the favorites at 10/1 and worthy its because horse has been no worse than 2nd in last 4 tries but at distances averaging 25 furlongs - while the Grand National is 36 furlongs. 7th and 9th place in races that has had over 20 horses - still like but like the others at better prices.

Put win bets on the top 2 and then box up all in exactas....

Epilogue: Seabass and Shakalakaboomboom lead going into the last jump but couldn't hold on....no winning tickets.  More importantly its obvious that this race needs to be reformed - brutal on the horses and riders....traditions that don't work are meant to be changed.

Lets move to Lexington, Kentucky ---- as much as I love Keeneland - not a big fan of the University that sits in Lexington...especially after this week when Coach Cal swiped up #1 High School basketball recruit, Nerlins Noel, from the Georgetown Hoyas.  I am not going to question a decision of an 18yo that certainly has had his share of people telling him what to do over the years....if he is interested in going "one & done" - he made the right decision.  If he wanted to become not only a premier big man in the NBA in the future (see what Big Roy and Greg Monroe are doing the league now) but also be a great ambassador for the game and good citizen such as what Deke, Zo Jerome "Junkyard Dog" Williams have done - there would have been no better place than Georgetown.   Oh well.... the Hoyas have the Repo Man, Otto Porter back as well as 3 other soon-to-be sophs that should start.

To the racing...the Blue Grass Stakes hasn't really been a great launching pad for Kentucky Derby success but we may see a reversal this year.  My ideal scenario is this.... Hansen runs away with the Blue Grass and goes into the Kentucky Derby as a heavy favorite... this would be a perfect set up as I've said before and will say again with certainty - Hansen will not win the Kentucky Derby.   A couple of horses in today's field may.....One is Prospective who I've liked back from his race in the Sam F Davis Stakes in Tampa and the other is Dullahan.  Unfortunately, I don't think my ideal scenario will work out as Hansen will have to battle possibly 4 or 5 other horses for the lead that the colt likes.    The Locks for the Blue Grass are:

◎  #3 Prospective  10/1
○ #6 Dullahan 6/1
▲ #10 Howe Great 6/1
△ #4 Hansen 6/5

Bet #3 and # 6 to win and box up the horses in an exacta and trifecta.


Epilogue: Dullahan out ran Hansen in the stretch.  So took had a winning ticket plus a short-priced exacta.

Now over to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.... Here is a race with a heavy favorite Secret Circle and again another horse I wouldn't mind running away with the race - as it is another horse that will not win the Kentucky Derby but I think the  1 1/8m Arkansas Derby may too long for the BC Juvenile Sprint champ.  Lets look at these for the Locks:

◎ #10 Bodemeister  9/5 
○ #3 Najjaar 15/1
▲ #10 Reconteur 15/1
△ #6 Isn't He Clever 6/1

Not much value in betting Bodemeister - so go with win bet on Najjaar and exactas and trifectas boxes.

Epilogue:  Bodemeister won (romped!) as predicted but the short price wasn't worth the bet.  The others didn't fire so no winning tickets.

Then moving on tonight to Japan...there is the Satsuki Sho 皐月賞 or the equivalent of the Japanese 2000 Guineas which is the first leg of the Japanese Triple Crown.  This race was won 2 years ago by Victorie Pisa who went on to win the Dubai World Cup last year and then last year won by Orfevre who went on to capture the Triple Crown.    Sunday Silence's bloodlines are imprinted all over this race as there are 11 horses that are grandsons of Sunday Silence with 5 alone sired by Deep Impact, a champion son of Sunday Silence.

◎コスモオオゾラ Cosmo Ozora 14-1
○ゴールドシップ Gold Ship 7-1
▲ワールドエース World Ace 4-1
△ディープブリランテ Deep Brillante 6-1

Take Cosmo Ozora to win plus box the 4 horses in exactas and trifectas


Epilogue: Gold Ship, World Ace and Deep Brillante completed the trifecta.  Cosmo Ozora was less than a jump (and a nose) short of 3rd.  But had winning exacta and trifecta tickets....not a huge payout but did bulk up my account. 


Good luck....

Derby Preps (the Wood. the Illinois Derby and the Santa Anita Derby)) - the Locks Picks the Winners

Last year, I loved the horse Toby's Corner as my early Derby pick and that pick was validated with a Wood Memorial Stakes win over then odds-on pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo.  


This year, we may have a similar result...Todd Pletcher brings in a heavy favorite, Gemologist, to the Wood and will need to face off against some horses that have been running at Aqueduct this winter.  Gemologist has a lot to like from a Derby contender standpoint including having 2 wins over 2 turns at Churchill Downs but the colt may have his hands full today.  Alpha could be Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai's best Derby prospect - the Derby is one of the only global top tier races that has eluded the Sheikh.  Alpha has won two 2-turn stakes races at Aqueduct this winter and comes out one of the most "key" races the BC Juvenile.  The Lumber Guy is a potential monster horse but will likely be short in this race.  Street Life also has two 2-turn wins at Aqueduct this winter and will set up nicely if Gemologist pushed up front by Lumber Guy.  My Adonis has been placing in good races and should be played in exotics today.



◎  #5 Street Life            4/1
○  #1  Alpha                     5/2
▲ #6 Gemologist           8/5
△ #3 My Adonis             8/1

$15 Win #5

$1 exacta all/#5

$1 trifecta 5,1,6,3


Post Mortem:  Gemologist/Alpha gamely battled down the stretch but didn't cash a ticket. 
Bet $46. Won $0.  Net ($46)

Illinois Derby will be a full field of 14 horses and features another Todd Pletcher horse coming in as favorite but My Entourage is a lot less accomplished.  A couple of interesting value plays, including Fastestwhogetspaid at 30-1 who has already a 2-turn win at Hawthorne.  Done Talking 20-1 is a horse I thought could be a Derby contender but put in a real dull effort in March after a nice race in the Remsen last November, but colt has trained well since that last race.  10-1 Morgan's Guerrilla comes off a 2-turn maiden in Aqueduct but has great pedigree. Currency Swap is a horse I bet and won at 10-1 on as a maiden back in August at Saratoga - always like to play horses that have rewarded me in the past.

◎  #13 Done Talking       20/1

○  #4 Currency Swap    4/1

▲ #9 Fastestwhogetspaid 30/1

△ #12 Morgan's Guerilla  10/1

$15 Win #13

$1 exacta all/13

$1 exacta 13, 4, 9,12

$1 trifecta 13, 4, 9, 12

Post Mortem:  Done Talking comes from the clouds going against slow fractions to win.  Morgan's Guerrilla took 2nd.  Hit the win and exacta. 


Bet $64  Won $296.60  Net $232.60.


Santa Anita Derby also being run out on the Left Coast...Creative Cause is the horse to beat after coming out of the San Felipe but at 6/5 may want to look at others for value.  Liaison may swing luck back to Bob Baffert....Baffert has had a string of bad luck including losing Fed Biz a horse he tabbed early as Derby horse to injury, then going to Dubai suffering a heart attack a few days before his The Factor and Game On Dude ran poorly on the Meydan track.  BB seems to be back in decent health and has three horses in today's Santa Anita.  Liaison, the colt, has had some poor luck while unseating its rider in the stretch 2 races back but maybe able to bounce back form that and a 4th in the San Felipe to contend.  Holy Candy only has a maiden victory but may also be ready to come off the pace for a piece of the pie.  I'll Have Another who is out of an Arch dame has only one out of the money blemish and thats on a trip to the Right Coast.  Midnight Transfer may not be a 9f horse but may hit the top 3.



◎  #4 I'll Have Another 5/2
○  #1 Creative Cause   6/5
▲ #3 Holy Candy 8-1
△ #2 Liaison 8-1


$10 Win #4
$1 exacta all/4
$1 exacta 4, 1, 3,2
$1 trifecta 4, 1, 3, 2

Post Mortem:
I'll Have Another held off Creative Cause.  Hit the win and the exacta
Bet $54   Win $61.60  Net $7.60

Good Luck.....less than a month to the Derby!!