2022
Kentucky Derby Locks
Let’s be honest
– the Locks have been less than mortal locks.
Indeed, 11 out of 14 of the Locks since 2008 finished in the trifecta
but only 3 of the last 14 (21.4%) have actually won the Derby – yes
better than a dart board (5.22%) but not good enough. Consider
also that the odds for The Locks’ Derby winners averaged only 4.17-1 – so if
you bet $10 win ticket on the Locks over these last 14 years - $140 bet –
payout $71.7. ROI = - 48%. The Locks must
hit winners at higher odds or at higher frequency OR the Locks may risk becoming
irrelevant. This year The Locks doesn’t
want to be Carlos Beltran with his bat on his shoulder in game 7 in the 2006
NLCS – The Locks are going to be swinging for the fences. The
Locks will be back into positive ROI by 6:59 EDT on May 7th. It’s a Lock.
Past Locks:
2021: Essential
Quality – placed 3rd *– odds: 2.90-1
2020: Tiz the Law –2nd -- odds: .70-1
2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible –
finish 3rd – odds: 7.00-1
2017: Always
Dreaming – 1st – odds: 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen
– 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing
Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd
– 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st
– 5.40-1
2012: Daddy
Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011:
Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd
– 11.70 -1
2009: Musket
Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown
– 1st – 2.40-1
Despite spotty end results –
the Locks is going to continue with the formula of looking at Winners, Runners
and Conformers.
Winners: Horses
that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not
run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking
for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking
for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the
winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more
than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6
times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that had come in
with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at
50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins
have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with
only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1). Accepting
low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks
puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". Dr.
Sartin, the godfather of pace
handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is
anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young from
a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Hostess Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz &
Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race
ends, is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to
pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those
splits.
We have seen seismic shifts in how the Derby has been run
and won in the past 8 years. From 1993-2013,
average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off
the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths. During that same period, the median finishing
position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace
after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the
same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that
were less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
But the last 8 years, we have seen speedier horses (the
Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2
mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead. The last 2 Kentucky Derbies have had horses
finishing first by those wiring the field.
It also hasn’t been due to slow splits - during these last 8 years – the
4 furlong and 6 furlong splits have averaged 46 2/5 and 1:11 1/5 respectively.
Although in looking to fill your exotics since 2010,
-
2nd place horses have been (on average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8.5 lengths, 1
mile, 4 lengths off the lead.
-
3rd place horses: ½
mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.
Armed with those facts – will be looking at horses that
can carry their tactical speed for the winner and some closers to fill exacta
and trifecta finishes.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys
history and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader
of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a
semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in
the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class. At that time the drinking of Cossack vodka
and YooHoo Black Russians as a substitute for studying was considered the cause
of the downfall but now The Locks is putting it to an early premonition of
boycotting all things related to the Russian government. Slava Ukraini!!
The history of the
Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather
Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the
Lewis & Clark Expedition fame. Merriweather Clark wasn’t going
to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather
Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby
(which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French
pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to
Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs
and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
The Locks does like
to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 147 years of data already
accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and
history to consider when wagering:
Last-race-Locks
Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 26 years have been quite telling-- only
3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99
that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is
sole exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 LSI.
There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded
the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen
Kentucky Derby winners in last 17 years averaged a last race LSI of 105+. Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs –
Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb.
In the same 26 year
period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet
speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the
following have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races: Epicenter, Zandon, Mo
Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Taiba, Smile Happy.
Homebreds have been
quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 18 and 5 out of the last 11 Derby
winners being owned by the same people that bred them. In the 2022
Kentucky Derby, Crown Pride, Zozos, Charge It, Happy Jack, Pioneer of Medina
are all homebreds.
Derby horses names
starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very
successful with a record of 10 wins out of 197 starters (5.07%). Epicenter,
Zandon, and Zozos are looking to change that trend. Those horses whose name
begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a 11.5% clip. White
Abarrio is hoping for some luck in its name.
Messier(Ontario), Simplification(FL), Crown Pride (Japan) are
the only non-Kentucky bred Derby starters. There have been only 2
Canada-bred Derby winners – Sunny’s Halo (1983) and Northern Dancer (1964) –
since Sunny’s Halo’s victory only Victory Gallop 2nd in 1998 is the only time a
Canada-bred has hit the board in the Derby. Florida has only bred 6 Derby
winners including Silver Charm in 1997 and Triple Crown winner Affirmed. But
note 6 Florida-breds have hit the board in the last 18 years. The only other
Japanese bred starter was Master Fencer in 2019 who finished a respectable 6th.
Since 1914, no Derby
winner has broke its maiden at Ellis Park (Tiz the Bomb) or the Fair Grounds (Zozos).
Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby winner to win its maiden on foreign soil
– Summer is Tomorrow (Dubai) and Crown Pride (Japan) are attempting to be other
foreign trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has not been
a Kentucky Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden at
Churchill Downs – Epicenter and
Cyberknife, broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.
Two-thirds of Derby
winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or
second start including 18 out of the last 21 Derby winners. These
entries took longer to break their maidens: Summer is Tomorrow (3rd start),
Pioneer of Medina (3rd start), Ethereal Road (4th start).
9 out of the last 11
Derby winners have come into the race off a win in their last prep – this bodes
well for: Tawny Port (Lexington), Taiba (Santa Anita Derby), Crown Pride (UAE
Derby), Cyberknife (Arkansas Derby), Tiz the Bomb (Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes), Mo
Donegal (Wood Memorial), White Abarrio (Florida Derby), Zandon (Blue Grass),
Epicenter (Louisiana Derby).
In 2019 the streak
of favorites winning the Derby ended after having a streak of 6 which was the
longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history. This comes after a
period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we
are on a streak of 3 non-favorites winning the Derby.
Since 1952, no Derby
winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby,
had true clunkers in their last race. Classic Causeway (11th) hit
the skids in last race.
Since 1979, only 2
Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012,
Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby
mount. Reylu Gutierrez (Barber Road) is a Derby rookie jockey.
Since 1949, there
have been 6 morning line odds-on favorites (less than 1-1), of these 6 only
Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle Slew (1977) have won the Derby, the other 4
(Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure, Tiz the Law and Nashua) all came in 2nd.
Pioneer of Medina
and Tawny Port are sired by a sire (Pioneerof the Nile) that has produced a
Derby winner. No sire has produced more
than 2 Kentucky Derby winners with Maria’s Mon being the last to produce 2 -
Monarchos (2001) & Super Saver (2010).
1 Mo
Donegal 10-1
Owner: Donegal
Racing (Jerry Crawford et al)
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Irad
Ortiz Jr.
Sire: Uncle Mo $160,000
Dam: Callingmissbrown
(Pulpit)
Race
Record: 5:3-0-2
LSI Figures: 108-95-97
Mo Donegal may
be Jerry Crawford’s Donegal Racing syndicate’s most accomplished Derby runner
and that is saying something. Donegal
Racing has hit the board twice (Dullahan 3rd 2012, Paddy O’Prado 3rd
2010) already in 3 tries at the Derby – their 3rd Derby runner Keen
Ice went on to unexpectedly to win the Travers Stakes over Triple Crown winner
American Pharoah. Mo Donegal like other Donegal Racing horses has a late turn
of foot demonstrated by a sub-12 final 1/8th in the Wood Memorial
that scored a BrisNet Late Pace figure of 121. Mo Donegal’s Wood was over 2.5
seconds faster than the fillies’ Oaks prep later on the card. To make Mo Donegal’s Wood win more impressive
- the closing win went against the track bias that day. Mo Donegal has 3 wins
including 2 9 furlong wins. Only blemish
on resume after his debut race was in the Holy Bull where Mo Donegal got
bottled up by Derby runner Simplification and then when had a clear running
path came home in the fastest closing 1/8th to finish a nose off 2nd.
Mo Donegal will spring from the 1 hole which
hasn’t yielded a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986 but trainer Todd Pletcher
isn’t concerned as with Mo Donegal’s late running style – getting the rail to
start will help the horse save ground.
Lock’s
Verdict: Good shot to hit the board. ππππ
2
Happy Jack 30-1
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: Doug
O’Neill
Jockey: Rafael
Bejarano
Sire: Oxbow
$7,500
Dam: Tapitstry
(Tapit)
Race Record:
4:1-0-2
LSI Figures:
88-90-76
Happy Jack is a
The Who song from 1966 during their Mod sound days
Happy
Jack wasn't tall, but he was a man
He
lived in the sand at the Isle of Man
The
kids would all sing, he would take the wrong key
So
they rode on his head in a hurry on Quay
The song is about someone who let criticism roll off his back. Hopefully Happy Jack – the horse- has similar resiliency as the colt’s past performances are not confidence inspiring. In the last 3 races – Happy Jack has lost by a combined 49 lengths. Consider from 2015 to 2020 the average total distance lost by the Derby winners was .5 lengths. Last 3 race speed figs (Brisnet, LSIs, Beyers) are sub-par in the field and well below expectation of a Derby winner. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is 0 for 11 in Derby starts and average finish in last 6 Derby tries is 14th.
Lock’s
Verdict: Bettors on Happy Jack won’t be
so happy.
3
Epicenter 7-2
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Joan & Ron Winchell)
Trainer: Steve
Asmussen
Jockey: Joel
Rosario
Sire : Not This Time $45,000
Dam: Silent
Candy (Candy Ride)
Race Record:
6:4-1-0
LSI Figures
(Last 3 races from latest to earliest):
105-103-101
The $260,000 it
took to purchase Epicenter at the Keeneland September sale was generated from
sale of 37,145 Super Slam breakfasts.
Mother and son owners Joan and Ron Winchell are heirs of Verne
Winchell’s Denny’s fortune. Denny’s is
the backdrop of some classic stories such as:
In 2012, James B.
Summers walked into a Denny's in Madison, Wisconsin, told everyone that he
was the new general manager and started making himself a cheeseburger. He
was quickly found out and
arrested. The police report
states, "He was in the midst of dining when she let him know the gig was
up, that she had talked with corporate, and he was no new hire. Unfazed, he
continued to brush off her remarks, saying she just had not yet gotten the
memo."
Sometimes when you're
waiting forever for service at a restaurant, all you want to do is burn the
place down. Christopher Maddocks, a man from San Antonio, decided to teach the
servers of Denny's a lesson and set their Christmas tree
on fire. Maddocks was sentenced
to eight years in prison.
Not another
classic story but a potential classic winner is Epicenter. There is a lot to like about Epicenter
-
Retains
services of 2021 Jockey of the Year Joel Rosario. Joel (pronounced the same way you’d pronounce
Joel as in Billy Joel but if you were in Donegal, Ireland) could have also had
the ride on Mo Donegal but chose Epicenter.
-
4
wins and a 2nd (lost by a head) including a win at Churchill Downs
-
Speed
figs that align with a Derby winner including Brisnet Late Pace (106) and final
1/8th – 12.15s
-
A
tactical speed running style that has been successful in the last 8 Kentucky
Derbies.
Like a meal at
Denny’s you always have to take the good (scrumptious taste of a plateful of
bacon and starches) vs the calories and inevitable indigestion. Things to keep
in mind on Epicenter.
-
Trainer
Steve Asmussen has the dubious record of most Derby entries (23) without a
Derby win.
-
A
Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone did so in
1996 (historical reference: Prodigy’s
Firestarter was on the radio AND Jerry Maguire was in the theaters – radios and
theaters – wow - that was a long time ago).
-
The
stakes race for older horses on the Louisiana Derby card was run faster than
Epicenter’s race – these were good but not the top older horses
Lock’s
Verdict: In the mix.
4
Summer is Tomorrow 30-1
Owner: Michael Hilary Burke & Negar Burke
Trainer: Bhupat
Seemar
Jockey: Mikael
Barzalona
Sire: Summer
Front $7,500
Dam: Always
Tomorrow (Badge of Silver)
Race Record:
7:2-3-0
LSI Figures:
xx-xx-xx
The story of Summer
is Tomorrow is truly international – foaled in the US on the farm of former
Kentucky Governor, Brereton C. Jones – bought at auction as a weanling in
Kentucky by Runnymede Farm and then pinhooked and sold as a 2yo in England in a
sale sponsored by a French company, bought by a couple with a veterinarian
Irish husband and Iranian wife, raced in Dubai by an Indian trainer, ridden by
Irish and French jockeys. Now has come
full circle – in returning to Kentucky the very place was foaled and raised.
Will that full circle journey include a trip to the winner’s circle – consensus
is that Summer is Tomorrow would be a very unlikely winner – will want to set
pace (2 wins have come on front end and SiT hasn’t been as successful when
hasn’t gotten lead) but may not get his way due to potentially speedier
rivals. Final 1/8th come home
time in UAE Derby was 14+ seconds. This
year there will be 5 French-born jockeys in the Derby. Although Florent Geroux, Flavien Prat and
Julien Leparoux have each run in multiple Derbies – this will be Mikael
Barzalona first Run for the Roses.
Lock’s
Verdict: Summer is Tomorrow will
continue its international tour with a return trip to the UAE without the
trophy.
5
Smile Happy 20-1
Owner: Lucky
Seven Stable (Michael J. Mackin)
Trainer: Ken
McPeek
Jockey: Corey
Lanerie
Sire: Runhappy
$12,500
Dam: Pleasant
Smile (Pleasant Tap)
Race Record:
4:2-2-0
LSI Figures:
103-100-107
Jim “Mattress
Mack” McIngvale will again be making a 7-figure bet on the Kentucky Derby
favorite in a way to hedge out a sales gimmick he’s offering at his Gallery
Furniture chain of stores in the Houston area.
Although Smile Happy is not going to be the Derby favorite – Mattress
Mack may have more riding on Smile Happy’s success in the Derby than the amount
he can make with his big odds-swaying Derby bet. Mattress Mack owns Smile Happy’s sire Runhappy
and if you’ve been to race track in the past few years – you’ve witnessed the
massive marketing effort Mattress Mack undertook in promoting Runhappy. Beyond saturating Runhappy signage at race
tracks – you will see many high profile stakes races sponsored by Runhappy as
well as many of Fox Sports horse racing broadcasts have been supported by
Runhappy. Runhappy has been good not
great as a sire so far – ranking around 4th or 5th in his
crop class which also includes the sires Not This Time (sire of Epicenter and Simplification)
and Upstart (Zandon). Mattress Mack
knows that a sire that has produced a Derby winner has historically increased
demand and a corresponding increase in stud fees – consider Into Mischief’s
stud fee rose from $175,000 to $225,000 after that sire’s progeny Authentic won
the 2020 Kentucky Derby. During the
period 1993-2012 – stud fees of the sires that produced Derby winners rose an
average of 141%. That all said – does
Smile Happy have a chance to be Runhappy’s first Grade 1 stakes winner? Smile Happy has 2 wins and 2 seconds in his
short 4 race career including winning a 2 turn race at Churchill Downs
(Kentucky Jockey Club Staks). Smile Happy has a triple digit last race Brisnet
Speed figure and also 2 triple digit late pace Brisnet speed figures on his
past performances and 3 100+ LSIs. Most
detractors of Smile Happy’s chances of winning the Derby actually stems from
his sire Runhappy – as Runhappy was a brilliant sprinter (7 for 7 sprinting, 0
for 3 in routes).
Lock’s Verdict:
Smile Happy may be happier at shorter.
6
Messier 8-1
Owner: SF
Racing LLC (Gavin Murphy), Starlight Racing (Jack Wolf), Madaket Stables LLC
(Sol Kumin), Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC
(W. Gregg Slager), Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable (Ben Goldberg &
Elliot Friman), Siena Farm LLC (Anthony Manganaro)
Trainer: Tim
Yakteen
Jockey: John
Velazquez
Sire: Empire
Maker $85,000
Dam: Checkered
Past (Smart Strike)
Race Record:
6:3-3-0
LSI Figures:
98-103-108
This owner
group have self-anointed themselves The Avengers – cue the emoji guy with hand
covering face in distaste. This one
comes out of the suspended Bob Baffert barn and is being warehoused in the care
of Tim Yakteen for the time being.
Looked to be on the way to Derby favorite-dom after a 15 length
demolition of the Robert B Lewis Stakes but was brought back to earth after
yielding victory to the other Baffert ‘er Yakteen trainee Taiba in the Santa
Anita Derby.
When people
call Wayne Gretzky – the Great One – consider this - Gretzky won 4 Stanley Cups
with Edmonton all playing with Mark Messier but never won one without Messier
while Messier went on to win another Cup at Edmonton and the 1994 Stanley Cup
with the Rangers. So who really is the Great one??!
Lock’s
Verdict: Horse is not nearly as good as
its namesake.
7 Crown
Pride 20-1
Owner: Teruya Yoshida
Trainer: Koichi
Shintani
Jockey: Christophe
Lemaire
Sire: Reach the
Crown
Dam: Emmy’s
Pride (King Kamehameha)
Race Record: 4:3-0-0
LSI Figures:
XX-XX-XX
Think about the
last six months the impact that Japanese horses have had on global racing –
wins in 2 Breeders Cup races, 4 Saudi Cup day races, 5 Dubai World Cup Day
races including Crown Pride’s triumph in the UAE Derby. Admittedly, there are better 3yos running in
Japan as the best horses in Japan are turf runners and even among dirt runners
– there are a couple such as Dry Stout and Blitz Fang and filly Delicada that
may be more talented. However, not being
the best in Japan has not stopped many of the Japanese horses that have won at
the international races at Del Mar, Meydan and King Abdulaziz Racetrack. Crown Pride should not have a distance
issue – is only horse in field to have 3 wins at 9 furlongs or longer. Only loss in Crown Pride’s past performances
is loss at shorter 1600m distance on a muddy track when Crown Pride was trying
to run against track bias. Crown Pride
has the tactical speed that has won the Derby in the last 8 runnings but was
still running fast at the end with the fastest final 1/8th in the
UAE Derby field. Crown Pride had a
sizzling bullet workout at Churchill Downs that shows that the colt likes the
track. Don’t worry that jockey Frenchman
Christophe Lemaire will be riding in his first Derby as he has been Japan’s
leading jockey for the last 5 years. Too
many positives to keep this one off any exacta and trifecta including in the
top spot.
Lock’s
Verdict: A must include in all exotics.
8
Charge It 20-1
Owner: Whisper
Hill Farm
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Luis
Saez
Sire: Tapit
$185,000
Dam: I’ll Take
Charge (Indian Charlie)
Race Record:
3:1-2-0
LSI Figures:
97-104-100
Charge It is
Mandy Pope’s Whisper Hill Farms 2nd Derby runner – her Mylute
finished a respectable 5th in 2013.
Mandy is known in the horse racing circles by some incredible prices
she’s paid for broodmare prospects – including $9.5m for Songbird and a record
$10 million for Harve de Grace. Charge
It’s mare, I’ll Take Charge was purchased by $2.2 million as a yearling. That horse only made $85k+ on the track but a
Derby win by Charge It may make the mare even more valuable than its lofty purchase
price. There are some that really like
Charge It’s chances and see Charge It as one of the most talented horses in the
field but detractors feel that the horse is short on experience. The Locks has been looking into colorstrology
and is analyzing this one via hues rather than broodmare price dues.
-
Since
year 2000, gray horses have finished in a superfecta finish (top 4) in 28% of
the entries - better than the expected value of 20%.
-
Charge
It’s foaling date is April 3 which has a colorstrology birthday color of fuchsia
pink – which just happens to be the color of Mandy Pope’s Whisper Hill Farm’s
silks.
-
Charge
It’s pink silks won’t get lost in the crowd but since 1908 – the color pink has
only been a feature on the Derby’s winning silks - 6 times.
Lock’s
Verdict: Talented colt but color me a
skeptic – no red roses for Charge It.
9 Tiz
the Bomb 30-1
Owner: Magdalena
Racing (Sherri McPeek et al)
Trainer: Ken
McPeek
Jockey: Brian
Hernandez Jr.
Sire: Hit It A
Bomb $5,000
Dam: Tiz the
Key (Tiznow)
Race
Record: 8:5-1-0
LSI Figures:
105-105-80
The story of
Tiz the Bomb is truly the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Let’s get the ugly out of the way first-- ownership of Tiz the Bomb is not without some
controversy – although the owner of record for TtB last few races has been
trainer Ken McPeek’s own Magdalena Racing stable – the horse was owned by
Phoenix Thoroughbreds - which also continues to tout -on its website- TtB as one of theirs. Phoenix Throughbreds is a global thoroughbred
operation that owns over 300 horses that enjoyed a meteoric rise but has now
become mired in dubiousness surrounding Amer Abdulaziz Salman, the founder of
Phoenix Thoroughbreds, being suspected as “key figure in a major money-laundering
operation” involving a sham cryptocurrency called OneCoin – what has resulted in
the French banning Phoenix, Australia freezing assets and Phoenix volunteering
to withdraw from UK operations. If we
attempt to separate the potential ugliness of actions by the horse’s previous named owners we
can find the Good.
By wining the
Derby - Tiz the Bomb could be a bomb on the toteboard. Consider the Good:
- - Most
wins (5) in the field.
- - Coming into race off of 2 back-to-back visually impressive performances
- - Raw times compare well vs older and filles race on same day.
- - Versatility
to win on the lead, stalking or far off the pace.
- - Speed
figs that fit a Derby winner – iBrisnet, Brisnet Late Pace and including the
best last 2 races LSIs.
- - A
horse on continuous improve – speed figures getting better as goes longer.
- - Animal
Kingdom (2011) and Lil E Tee (1992) used the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (nee Jim
Beam Stakes) as launching point for a Derby win both at big prices.
- - Jockey
Brian Hernandez home track is Churchill Downs where he has been a top 5 jockey
for the last several years.
The Bad is found
in why there has been a dismissal of TtB’s chances (noting the 30-1 morning
line odds). The negative view on TtB stems mostly from a true clunker in the
Holy Bull Stakes -7th place missing by 20 lengths. The performance
was so puzzling that the chart writer felt it necessary to note “no apparent
mishap”. If TtB were to win the Kentucky Derby – it wouldn’t be the first time
a Derby winner threw in a real non-maiden race clunker – I’ll Have Another,
California Chrome, Mine that Bird, War Emblem , and Funny Cide all had some
puzzling races before putting it all together on the first Saturday in May. TtB
did have excuse for the trip – in that the colt had been coming off a 3 month
layoff. Other concern is whether dirt is
the preferred surface for the colt – as most of TtB races have either been on turf
or tapeta (synthetic surface). Take a
look at this complete distruction by TtB https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IZ9lSXNbEA
(from 2:14 on) and let me know if this horse has an issue running on dirt.
Locks’ Verdict: With a lot of Good and mitigation of the Bad
and with morning-line odds of 30-1 and the vow to swing for the fences – this year’s
Kentucky Derby Lock is Tiz the Bomb.
Boom!
10 Zandon
3-1
Owner: Jeff
Drown
Trainer: Chad
Brown
Jockey: Flavien
Prat
Sire: Upstart
$10,000
Dam: Memories
Prevail (Creative Cause)
Race Record:
4:2-1-1
LSI Figures:
106-100-97
Minnesota not only has the twin cities – it has the twin Derby prospects, Zandon and Zozos, both having owners from the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Zandon’s owner Jeff Drown runs a construction outfit in St. Cloud, Minnesota but has built a good relationship with NY-based trainer Chad Brown. Before there was Zandon, Down campaigned Structor, the 2019 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner under Chad Brown’s care. Lot to like about Zandon.
- Last Race LSI, Brisnet Speed Figs, Brisnet Late Pace on par for a Derby winner.
- Improving horse proven by increasing speed figures over race career.
- 3 – 9 furlong races shows that Zandon is likely to get the distance.
- 12.26s final 1/8th in the Blue Grass. Blue Grass Stakes holds up as a good race based on raw times run that day.
- Kentucky Derby winning jockey
Question on
chances for winning the Derby stems from Zandon’s running style of a deep
closer in last 2 races where the Locks feels a pressing or stalking style is
more likely to produce a Derby winner.
For those that
can’t make it to Louisville consider this alternative per local Minnesota news:
The
Whitehorse in St. Cloud will be hosting a viewing party from 3-6 p.m. May 7.
Owner Jackie Lee says they will have Derby themed Lunch and Dinner specials,
Mint Juleps and a specialty Drink named after Zandon. They will have prizes for best hat, and other
door prizes.
Lock’s Verdict:
Lockish
11 Pioneer of Medina 30-1
Owner: Sumaya Us Stable
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Manny Franco
Sire: Pioneerof
the Nile $110,000
Dam: Lights of
Medina (Eskendereya)
Race Record:
6:2-1-2
LSI Figures:
100-100-96
Pioneer of Medina was at the bottom of the Road to the
Kentucky Derby eligibility table but has a better resume and higher likelihood
to win the Derby than more than a few others in the field. Increasing Beyer Speed Figures, triple digit
LSIs, a pedigree that can carry the 10f distance, 5 of 6 starts in the money,
tactical speed, 4th fastest last-race closing 1/8thm
time. Finishing behind 4 other Derby
contestants in races without clear excuses says that there are better horses in
the field and the Locks is looking for winners. Oussama Aboughazale
lives in Santiago, Chile has made a multi-billion dollar fortune exporting
Chilean grown fruit around the world.
One of their better selling fruits is the lucuma which according to Oussama’s
company’s website “Beloved by the Incas, Lucuma (pronounced loo-koo-ma) is an
exotic fruit that looks a little like a nashi pear crossed with a mango, or an
avocado with a maple-like taste.”
Lock’s Verdict: A recipe for a lucuma smoothie may be the only winner found by researching this horse. πππ
12 Taiba 12-1
Owner: Zedan
Racing Stables Inc. (Amr Zedan)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Mike
Smith
Sire: Gun
Runner $125,000
Dam: Needmore
Flattery (Flatter)
Race Record: 2:2-0-0
LSI Figures: 100-100-xx
Taiba is owned
by Saudi Arabian businessman Amr Zedan who also owned the ill-fated Medina
Spirit who was disqualified from last year’s Kentucky Derby win. According to Churchill Downs:
Medina
Spirit, owned by Zedan Racing Stables Inc., trained by Bob Baffert and ridden
by John Velazquez, crossed the finish line in first and Mandaloun was second.
Because Medina Spirit tested positive in a mandatory post-race drug test for
the prohibited raceday medication betamethasone, he was disqualified to last
and purse money was redistributed by orders of the Kentucky Horse Racing
Commission stewards.
On top of
Medina Spirit’s disqualification – trainer Bob Baffert is currently serving a
suspension for the positive drug tests. During Baffert’s suspension many of his
horses have found themselves in the barn of a former assistant, Tim
Yakteen. Whether Baffert is truly
training behind Yakteen’s faΓ§ade is denied. Taiba definitely differs from
Medina Spirit – while Medina Spirt, sired by Protonico who only had sired 17
foals in his first crop, was first sold for $1,000 then pinhooked for $35,000 –
Taiba is sired by Gun Runner who gets $125,000 a cover and was purchased by
Zedan for $1.7 million.
There is no
denying that Taiba has flashed greatness in his 2 races so far. A maiden win by
7+ lengths and then a stunning and impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby
– the question that many ask ‘is it all too much too fast?’
Since 2004, 16
horses have come into the Derby undefeated and 5 of those have finished 1st in
the Derby. Tossing horses that were unraced as a 2yo was the long
standing rule until 2018 when Justify not only won the Derby but went on to win
the Triple Crown – however in the long history of the Derby only Justify and
Apollo in 1882 have won while being unraced at 2. Additionally there is not much history of
success for Derby entrants that have only 2 starts – since 1937 only 4 have run
with an average finish of 12th with the best finish of 6th . You have to go back to 1883 (historical
reference: 5 years before Vincent Van Gogh cuts off his ear) to find the only
Derby winner that won with just two lifetime starts. Note also that the Locks Speed Index do not
stack up with the top contenders.
Lock’s Verdict: Have to keep in mix but question marks remain. ππππ
13
Simplification 20-1
Owner: Tami
Bobo
Trainer:
Antonio Sano
Jockey: Jose
Ortiz
Sire: Not This
Time $45,000
Dam: Simply
Confection (Candy Ride)
Race Record:
7:3-1-2
LSI Figures:
96-91-95
The Locks has
to find some angle to like Simplification – simply because of the silks which
prominently features a Lock on the front.
The Lock on the silks relates to owner Tami Bobo’s Secure Investments
business. The key positive of
Simplification is jockey Jose Ortiz – who is able to put in a performance
worthy to be hanging in the Louvre.
There are a couple of other positives:
- 3 wins and 6 in the money starts
- Near identical breeding same sire and broodmare sire as potential race time favorite Epicenter.
- Has tactical speed
However, besides the masterpiece of silks - the positives are countered by these factors;
- Only has raced at Gulfstream Park – since 2000 – there were 6 other horses that only raced at Gulfstream Park before the Derby and their average finish was 12th.
- Sub-100 LSIs and Brisnet Figs.
- >14s last final 1/8th in only 9 furlong start.
Lock’s
Verdict: Jose and the silks can’t do
enough to get this one in the winner’s circle.
14 Barber
Road 30-1
Owner: WSS Racing LLC
Trainer: John
Ortiz
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Sire: Race Day
$7,500
Dam: Encounter
(Southern Image)
Race Record:
8:2-4-0
LSI Figures:
91-98-100
Barber Road is
the Women’s-Sized-Medium-Tom-Brady Patriots Jersey([i]) pick of this year’s field. Not that Barber Road is not a good horse –
just have a lot stacked against him to be found in the winner’s circle. Consider this:
-
Only
2 wins was against claiming horses.
-
Average
Derby finish position for horses that have run in claiming races since 2000 is
11th place.
-
Has
not won a race since November 10th, 2021.
- Both jockey and trainer will be in their first Derby.
- Since 1951 only 6 jockeys have won on their first Derby mount – only 2 since 2000
- Rochester NY-natice jockey Reylu Gutierrez breaks the mold for jockeys in being a college graduate (SUNY Cortland) and got into riding to help pay-off his college loans.
- For trainers it is less than a rare feat – including Brad Cox last year
- Average speed figures are in bottom 3 of the field.
-
LSI
are sub-par for a Derby winner.
- Since
BR won last – he’s run 2nd 4 times and 3rd 1 other time - equine athletic
psychologist, Kerry Thomas, the developer of the Thomas Herding Technique and
the writer of the Kentucky Derby Patterns of Motion Analysis, likely would say
that this horse is very happy running with the herd and may not need or want to
lead.
Locks’ Verdict:
Women’s-Sized-Medium-Tom-Brady Patriots Jersey[ii] pick
15
White Abarrio 10-1
Owner: C2
Racing Stable LLC (Clint Cornett) & La Milagrosa Stable LLC (Antonio
Pagnano)
Trainer: Saffie
Joseph
Jockey: Tyler
Gafflione
Sire: Race Day
$7,500
Dam: Catching
Diamonds (Into Mischief)
Race Record:
5:4-0-1
LSI Figures:
98-100-100
Barbados native Saffie Joseph trainer of White Abarrio will be sporting the best man bun in Louisville on May 7th. White Abarrio will be Saffie’s 2nd Derby entrant – NY Traffic finished 8th in 2020.
- WA has 4 wins out of 5 starts – the only loss was a 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs where White Abarrio fought back to get show.
- Has shown versatility in running style and can show tactical speed which has worked in the last several Derbies.
What you would find a concern would be whether the 10 furlong distance is ideal for White Abarrio – consider
- BRIS Late Pace figure for White Abarrio’s Florida Derby was 77 - lowest in field –Average for Kentucky Derby winner in last 22 years has been 102
- Last race last 1/8th come home time was 14+ seconds. Average for Kentucky Derby winner in last 22 years has been 12.7s.
Lock’s
Verdict: Pass
16 Cyberknife 20-1
Owner: Gold Square LLC (Abraham “Al” Gold)
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey: Florent
Geroux
Sire: Gun
Runner $125,000
Dam: Awesome
Flower (Flower Alley)
Race Record:
6:3-2-0
LSI Figures:
94-103-90
Cyberknife’s
owner Al Gold splits his time between Florida and Saratoga Springs. When he is not keeping tabs on his string of
horses – he is an avid NY Mets fan. He’s
campaigned horses such as Geaux Mets and a personal favorite, Cleon Jones. Cleon Jones’ Van has been the perennial name
of The Locks fantasy baseball team – would be a good name for a horse too but
may not get through the Jockey Club censors if someone took the time to google
“Cleon Jones’ Van”. As to Arkansas Derby
winning Cyberknife, named for a non-invasive, non-surgical, pain-free treatment
for prostate cancer, there a few things to like about this colt – a son of Gun
Runner who finished 3rd in the Derby, actually ridden by Cyberknife’s
own jockey Florent Geroux, trained by the current reigning Kentucky Derby
winning trainer, Brad Cox. Finished 1st
in debut race at Churchill Downs and has a running style to rate off the pace
and has done nothing wrong in 5 of his 6 starts. Features the only Derby
winning trainer/jockey combination in the field. Speed Figs and finishing pace isn’t on par
with the more likely winners.
Lock’s
Verdict: Will win more races this year
but against lesser horses.
17 Classic
Causeway 30-1
Owner: Kentucky
West Racing and Clarke Cooper
Trainer: Brian
Lynch
Jockey: Julien
Leparoux
Sire: Giant’s
Causeway $110,000
Dam: Private
World (Thunder Gulch)
Race Record:
6:3-1-1
LSI Figures: 77-96-99
Classic
Causeway owner Kentucky West makes reference to Patrick O’Keefe’s vision to
bring thoroughbred farms to St. Charles, Idaho in attempt to make it the
Kentucky of the West. When you google up
Kentucky West’s partner Clarke Cooper – you sill find a video of on older guy
in a cowboy hat going to the betting windows at Santa Anita to pick up stacks
of cash. Classic. Classic Causeway is from the late great sire
Giant’s Causeway final crop – that crop only included 3 foals- the other 2 foals,
Giant Game and Monaadah are both winners.
Classic Causeway is in unenviable
company with Happy Jack, Barber Road of those coming into the Derby with no 90+
Beyer Speed Figure – also LSIs and Brisnet speed figs are below par. The
inclusion of Classic Causeway into the field will ensure that there will be
pace in the race which may not be best for CC but may allow a horse that is
just off the pace in a stalking trip to be given more consideration.
Lock’s
Verdict: St. Charles, Idaho becoming a
thoroughbred breeding mecca is a more likely event than Classic Causeway
winning the Derby.
18
Tawny Port 30-1
Owner: Peachtree Stable
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey: Ricardo
Santana Jr.
Sire: Pioneerof
the Nile $110,000
Dam: Livi
Makenzie (Macho Uno)
Race Record:
5:3-1-0
LSI Figures:
101-103-95
Tawny Port
is ubiquitous style of fortified wine from northern Portugal. It is lighter
than Vintage Port and Ruby Port in both color and aroma, and is often made from
grapes grown in cooler parts of the Douro. Tawny tends to have a nutty,
oxidative character, and is often enjoyed as an aperitif, shunning Port's usual
role as an after-dinner drink. Unlike
Ruby, which ages for most of its life in bottle, Tawny Ports are aged in barrel
for several years. This allows oxygen to interact with the wine, which gives
Tawny Port its most distinctive characters, and leads to the pale,
"tawny" color that gives the style its name. (credit
Wine-searcher.com)
Speaking of
color - since 1909 only 4 Kentucky Derby winners features the color purple in
its silks – although 3 of those are within in the last 10 years. Tawny Port - the horse gained enough points to
get into the Derby on the last day/race of the Road to the Kentucky Derby by
winning the Lexington Stakes. Was a good
looking enough yearling to bring $430k at the Keeneland September sale and has
almost earned back all of that money ($427k) with its Lexington win and its 2nd
in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. Speed
figs don’t inspire.
Lock’s
Verdict: The Locks likes the desert wine
over the horse.
19
Zozos 20-1
Owner: Barry
& Joni Butzow
Trainer: Brad
Cox
Jockey: Manny
Franco
Sire: Munnings
$85,000
Dam: Papa’s
Forest (Forestry)
Race
Record: 3:2-1-0
LSI Figures:
102-102-98
Gopher State
natives, Barry and Joni Butzow have seen their racehorses make 1,250 starts
since 2005 and have only have had 1 graded stakes win (G3 win by their mare
Bryan’s Jewel). So having a home-bred
start in the Kentucky Derby is a thrill of a lifetime. Trainer Brad Cox
acknowledges that Zozos – named for a restaurant on Caneel Bay, St. Johns USVI
– needs seasoning but feels talented enough to warrant a start in the
Derby. Like Charge It– comes in to the
Derby – with only 3 starts – as noted horses with only 3 starts finish on
median 11th but have yielded 3 winners at a 9% strike rate which is
better than expected. Zozos is one of
only 7 Derby starters that have 100+ LSIs in last 2 starts. Zozos along with Zaiba and Charge It did not
race at 2yo - the record of horses in the Derby without a race at 2 since 1937
is 67 starts – 1 win (Justify). Zozos’ sire Munnings is a top 10 sire in the US
and may be the sire of the horse that may become champion 3yo – Jack Christopher. Jack Christopher who will run on the Derby undercard
is a super talented horse – that may have distance limitations but with wins in
the Met Mile and BC Dirt Mile could give this JC the title. Perhaps Zozos will give Jack Christopher some
races as expect that Zozos best distance may be 8f not the Derby’s 10f.
Locks’
Verdict: Zozos short on experience and
will come up short in the Derby.
20
Ethereal Road 30-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Aaron
Sones/Julie Gilbert
Trainer: D.
Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis
Contreras
Sire: Quality
Road
Dam: Sustained
(War Front)
Race Record: 7-1-1-1
LSI Figures: 97-94-98
The Locks will
need to break out a pair of circa early ’90s Foster Grant sunglasses for the Derby
this year as the Old Coach, D. Wayne Lukas, returns to the Kentucky Derby for
his first starter since 2018. Ethereal
Road will represent DWL’s 50th starter in the Derby – he has 4
winners and 10 in the money finishes – all in the period of 1981 to 2002.
Owners Aaron Sones and Julie Gilbert will have
their 2nd Derby runner – the other being in Trojan Nation in 2016. Funny that they had a horse names Trojan
Nation as both Sones and Gilbert have degrees from UCLA. Horse may be named after a book, The Ethereal
Road – a Soul-itary Tale – the book “explores moral questions, evolving
attitudes toward spirituality, and the meaning of life and death.” It will be a true spiritual journey if this
colt wins. Despite having a legend of a
trainer and a top notch pedigree – Ethereal Road is an unlikely winner. The
colt only has 1 win in 7 tries and as we noted Derby winners are winners. (Note
that the average number of wins before the Derby that these owners have had is 0.5
– Trojan Nation came to the Derby without a win to its name). Speed figures are
sub par. Last 2 races include a 4th
and 7th place. Ranks last in
the field in Brisnet Prime Power index.
Ehtereal Road is a big horse (1300lbs) and thus will need the perfect
trip – any traffic issues – which are common in the Derby – will cause the colt
to restart a run which takes a full 2-3 furlongs for a horse that big. Look for this horse coming on at the end but
will still be short of a superfecta finish.
Lock’s Verdict: Won’t be DWL’s 5th Derby winner.
21 Rich Strike 30-1
Owner: Richard Dawson - Red TR Racing LLC
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
Sire: Keen Ice
Dam: Gold Strike (Smart Strike)
Race Record: 7: 1-0-3
LSI Figures: 99-102-102
Rich Strike is in the Derby at the expense of Friday morning scratch by D. Wayne Lukas' Ethereal Road. Rich Strike is owned by Richard Dawson of Hogan's Heroes, Match Game and Family Feud fame. In Hogan's Heroes - he played Corporal Newkirk - Stalag 13's British conman, magician, pick-pocket, card sharp, forger, bookie, tailor, lock picker, and safe cracker. In Match Game he was a panelist along with Charles Nelson Reilly, Fanny Flagg, Brett Somers and the late great Betty White. His most fame comes from being host of 2,334 episodes of the Family Feud where he was best known for his on the lips kisses to contestants (pre-Covid-19). Consider if his Family Feud episodes were wins as a horse racing trainer he'd sit behind Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher but ahead of Chad Brown and all the other trainers in this year's Derby field. Oh wait --- that Richard Dawson left this earth in 2012 - Rest in Peace Newkirk! The Richard Dawson that owns this horse is a semi-retired energy industry worker from Oklahoma - bummer! Can't say Rich Strike has no chance at winning the Derby as this horse could be set up by a super hot pace and will be closing strong at the end -- but there are factors that make this one unlikely to win - only 1 career win, started career in the maiden claiming ranks, speed figs that are subpar, rookie jockey and trainer and now the fact that we have an owner that is significantly less interesting than who the Locks originally thought.
Lock's Verdict: Survey says: Pass ππ
Kentucky Derby
◎ 9 Tiz the
Bomb 30-1
○ 10 Zandon 3-1
▲ 7 Crown Pride 20-1
△ 1 Mo Donegal
10-1
△ 3
Epicenter 7-2
△ 12 Taiba
12-1
The Locks Bets are;
$20 Win #9 = $20
$1 Exacta All
over #9 = $19
$10 WPS #9 =
$30
$5 WPS #10 = $15
$1 Exacta Box: 9-10-7-1-3-12
= $30
$1 Exacta 9-10-3/9-10-7-1-3-12
= $15
$1 Trifecta 9-10-3/9-10-7-1-3-12/9-10-7-1-13-12
= 3 x 5 x 4 =$60
Total $20+$30+$19+$15+$30+$15+$60=$191.
Kentucky Oaks
◎ 10 Kathleen O 7-2
○ 4 Nest 5-2
▲2 Nostalgic 15-1
△ 13 Shahama 15-1
△ 8 Venti Valentine 20-1
