2021
Kentucky Derby Locks
Life is slowly getting back to normal, the Kentucky Derby will be run on the first Saturday of May – the Derby will includes things we have come to expect and to enjoy: mint juleps, hats, roses, Todd Pletcher with multiple entries, horses owned and bred by Arab royalty as well as those owned by Calumet and WinStar farms but this year there are some things that are not quite right – there is something missing – we already haven’t seen a D. Wayne Lukas entry for a couple of years, its been 2 decades since with the aid of a couple of bourbons Jim McKay hosted the event, 40 years since LeRoy Neiman captured the Derby with colorful paintstrokes, and a half-century since Hunter S Thompson made a decadent and depraved showing at Churchill Downs. But something is still missing this year – the Locks will be missing its number one fan. A fan that didn’t always catch all the references and one that preferred to bet the favorite rather than what the Locks may be selecting but loved reading every word. Miss you Mom! Rest easy! Vaya Con Dios!
Please also send some intervention on the 14-15-19-11 trifecta box.
Now…before getting into the analysis for the 147th
running of the Kentucky Derby lets look into the last baker dozen Derby Locks:
2020: Tiz the Law – placed 2nd odds: .70-1
2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible – 3rd – 7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing Line --
2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1
2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd – 11.70 -1
2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1
The Locks are going to
continue with the same strategy looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers:
Winners: Horses
that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not
run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking
for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers:
Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is
important in determining the winner of the Kentucky Derby... on average since
1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and
has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there
was only Giacamo that had come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that
took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming
in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who
came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90:1). Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins
is not in the Locks winning strategy – Hot Rod Charlie, Super Stock, Medina Spirit,
Midnight Bourbon, Keepmeinmind, Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic
One, Sainthood, Hidden Stash, O Besos are all winners of only 1 or 2 races. ) To note – that this year there are 11 that fit
this group whereas in the last 9 years there have been an average of 9.
Runners
As a student of the late
Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace
makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather
of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that
there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died
young from a diet that included 2 liter Cokes, Hostess Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz
& Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the
race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need
to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those
splits.
From 1993-2013, average
position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace,
3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.
During that same period,
the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either
1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place,
respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire
winner and no others that won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after
the first call.
However, the last 7 years, we have seen speedier
horses prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile:
1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.
But looking to fill the 2nd
and 3rd place positions in your exotics since 2010,
-
2nd
place horses have been (on average) ½
mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8.5 lengths, 1 mile, 4 lengths off the lead.
-
3rd
place horses: ½ mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3
lengths off the lead.
Noted above since 2000
closers have helped fill the exacta/trifecta spot and some of these are box-car
bombs: Lookin at Lee (33-1), Commanding Curve (38-1), Golden Soul (35-1),
Dullahan (12-1), Denis of Cork (27-1), Stepenwolfer (16-1), Mr. Big News (47-1)
–even with a moderate pace – need to keep an eye on closers in this field like
to Bourbonic to fill out your exacta and trifecta tickets.
It doesn’t appear that
that there are any horses in the race that are not able to be rated at all –
but do have, Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon that will want to be close to
the lead. The expectation - without the cheap speed/rabbit - is that there will
be a moderate pace (47+,1:11+). As such
it appears that one of these early/presser (E/P) types would be the Derby
winner. Horses that are Brisnet E/P
types are: Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated, Soup and
Sandwich, Super Stock, Hot Rod Charlie, Like the King, Sainthood, Dynamic One,
Brooklyn Strong and Helium.
Although the winner likely
will by consider an E/P type – the winner needs to carry its speed the full 10
furlong distance. Discounting the
aberration of Mine that Bird in 2009, the average last race BrisNet Late Pace
speed figs for Kentucky Derby winners is 103.7 with the minimum of 95. 2021 Kentucky Derby participants that would
meet that minimum are: Essential Quality, Like the King, Known Agenda,
Bourbonic, Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One, and O Besos. Narrowing
down those that meet both criteria leaves us: Essential Quality, Highly Motivated,
Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One as well as Like the King.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys history
and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader of the
Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of
Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. Drinking Cossack vodka and YooHoo Black Russians
– apparently - is not a substitute for studying. When they failed to include
how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew
from the class.
The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real
interesting tidbits for those that don’t know already -- the Kentucky Derby was
originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of
General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition
fame. Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to
satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather
Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby
(which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French
pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to
Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs
and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
The Locks does like to
look at history when betting the Derby as there is 146 years of data already
accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and
history to consider when wagering:
Last-race-Locks Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 24
years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won and
those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and
Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby
favorite and winner despite a sub-100 LSI. There were 2 others with last
race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1
and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16
years averaged a last race LSI of 105.85.
In the same 24 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the
Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of
their final two prep races. This year, only the following have 100+ Brisnet
figs in their last 2 races: Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Known Agenda,
Rock Your World, Weyburn, Mandaloun,
Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 9 out of
the last 17 and 5 out of the last 10 Derby winners being owned by the same people
that bred them. In the 2021 Kentucky
Derby, after only 1 homebred in 2020, there are numerous this year: Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Bourbonic,
Mandaloun, Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One. O Besos.
Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y
& Z have not been very successful with a record of 10 wins out of 195
starters (5.12%). Essential Quality and Known Agenda, are looking to buck the
trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning
at a 11.5% clip.
Brooklyn Strong (NY), Medina Spirit (FL), Soup and Sandwich
(FL) are the only non-Kentucky breds Derby starters. Florida has only bred 6 Derby winners
including Silver Charm in 1997 and Triple Crown winner Affirmed. But note 5
Florida-breds have hit the board in the last 17 years. There have been 24 other
NY-breds to run in the Derby with only Funny Cide (2003) winning the Derby – in
2018 NY-bred Audible and in 2020 Tiz the Law hit the board.
Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Ellis
Park (Midnight Bourbon), Los Alamitos (Medina Spirit), Belterra Park (Like the
King), Lone Star (Super Stock). Interestingly,
there has not been a Kentucky Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke
their maiden at Churchill Downs – Essential Quality, Keepmeinmind and King Fury
broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.
Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their
first race) on either their first or second start including 16 out of the last
19 Derby winners. These entries took
longer to break their maidens: Hot Rod Charlie (4th race), Super
Stock (3rd), Bourbonic (3rd), Dynamic One (4th),
Hidden Stash (3rd), Keepmeinmind (4th)
9 out of the last 10 Derby winners have come into the race
off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Essential Quality (Blue
Grass Stakes), Hot Rod Charlie (Louisiana Derby), Super Stock (Arkansas Derby),
Like the King (JR Steaks Stakes), Known Agenda (Florida Derby), Rock Your World
(Santa Anita Derby), Bourbonic (Wood Memorial Stakes), Helium (Tampa Bay
Derby), King Fury (Lexington Stakes)
In 2019 the streak of favorites winning the Derby ended
after having a streak of 6 which was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby
history. This comes after a period from 1980-1999
that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once.
Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th
in the final prep race before the Derby, Mandaloun (6th Louisiana
Derby), Brooklyn Strong (Wood Memorial), Keepmeinmind (Blue Grass) all had true
clunkers in their last race.
Since 1979, only 2 Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart
Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012, Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden
by jockeys riding in their first Derby mount.
Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli), Keepmeinmind (David Cohen), Bourbonic
(Kendrick Carmouche), O Besos (M Pedroza) all have Derby rookie jockeys.
Since 1949, there have been 6 morning line odds-on
favorites (less than 1-1), of these 5 only Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle
Slew (1977) have won the Derby, the other 4 (Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure, Tiz
the Law and Nashua) all came in 2nd.
Since 1990, no Derby winner has been sired by a Derby
winner – this year O Besos is sired by 2013 Derby winner Orb. Only Mandaloun,
Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich are sired by a sire (Into Mischief) that
has produced a Derby winner.
Only 9 geldings (ouch!) have won the Kentucky Derby. Since
1908, 118 geldings have run and 6 have won.
Brooklyn Strong is the only gelding in the 2021 Kentucky Derby field.
1 Known
Agenda 6-1
Owner: St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Sire : Curlin $175,000
Dam: Byrama (Byron)
Race Record: 6:
3-1-1
LSI Figures: 95-100-102
Known Agenda is owned by Vincent Viola’s St. Elias
Stable. Vincent Viola, a Wall Street
executive and West Point grad, and not only owner of Known Agenda but the
breeder, must have been happy that this one RNAd (reserve not attained) at the
Fasig Tipton Saratoga auction, as already has earned on the track 4x the amount
of the RNA price. Some of the positives when
considering Derby chances are:
-
(3) 9 furlong wins – only horse in field that
can tout that.
-
Irad Ortiz up, 3 time Eclipse jockey winner
(2018, 2019, 2020).
-
Derby horse pedigree – born to a G1 winning dam/sired
by a top sire Curlin.
-
2 solid works at Churchill Downs
To counter the positives, Trakus data yields that Soup and
Sandwich actually ran the faster Florida Derby than Known Agenda. Known Agenda
drifted out significantly in the stretch in the Florida Derby usually a signal a
tiring horse, however, Gulfstream Park is notoriously tiring for 9 furlong
races and Nyquist similarly drifted ahead of its Derby win. Landed in the
dreaded 1 hole which hasn’t yielded a winner since Ferdinand did so in 1986.
Locks Verdict: In
the mix.
2 Like
the King 50-1
Owner: M Racing Group LLC
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Sire : Palace Malice $20,000
Dam: Like A Queen (Corinthian)
Race Record: 6:3-2-1
LSI Figures: 103-100-98
Like the King is owned by Las Vegas & Ocala-based real
estate developer Mickey Gonzalez who has owned racehorses for the last 45 years
but has never had a Derby runner. Tell me these silks don’t look like the
endzone at University of Tennessee’s Neyland stadium. Despite a very humble start to career in
racing at Belterra Park, this colt has not done a lot wrong on the track but
still seems to be several lengths slower than the top contenders – also has yet
to race on a true dry dirt track longer than 5.5 furlongs.
Locks Verdict: Pass
3 Brooklyn
Strong 50-1
Owner: Mark Schwartz
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Sire: Wicked Strong
Dam: Riviera Chic (Medaglia D’Oro)
Race Record: 5: 3-0-1
LSI Figures: xx-xx-xx
Owner Mark Schwartz is a Brooklyn-born, Florida retiree,
who paid only $5,000 for Brooklyn Strong at an Ocala two year old sale. Brooklyn Strong has subsequently gone on to
win a NY-bred stakes race and the Remsen Stakes which is a 9 furlong 2yo race
which the Locks likes to look at for potential future Derby participants. – 4 out
of the last 7 Derby runners who also raced in the Remsen have had superfecta
(top 4) finishes - including Brooklyn
Strong’s sire Wicked Strong. But as good
as the stats have been for those that have won the Remsen – the stats are
equally as bad for those that have not finished in the top 2 in the Wood
Memorial since 2001 – average finish for those runners have been 14th
place. Kentucky Derby rookie Umberto Rispoli is a rising star among jockeys. He
grew up in the Napoli suburb of Scampia which is where the Italian organized
crime TV series Gomorrah is set – for those that haven’t seen it – Gomorroah makes
the Sopranos look like Romper Room but gets a Locks thumbs up. Umberto after leaving Italy but before coming
to the US was one of the leading jockeys in Hong Kong but will have his work
cut out for him if Brooklyn Strong can’t muster up his 2yo performances.
Locks Verdict: Pass
4 Keepmeinmind
50-1
Owner: Spendthrift Farm/ Cypress Creek LLC/ Arnold Bennewith
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: David Cohen
Sire : Laoban
$25,000
Dam: Inclination (Victory Gallop)
Race Record: 6: 1-2-1
LSI Figures: 100-88-90
After a couple of defections, Keepmeinmind has found itself
in the Derby field which wouldn’t have been surprising back in November of 2020
- after winning the 2-turn Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs and
finishing a fast closing 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. However, this colt’s 3 year old sequel season
is more like Caddyshack II compared to The Godfather II – 5th and 6th place
finishes losing by a total of 24 lengths, commentary of “did not fire” and bottom
of the barrel speed figures. Keepmeinmind
did shoot off a sizzling bullet workout – perhaps Keepmeinmind and its
connections are the only ones that want to turn the clock back to 2020.
Locks Verdict: Tom
Brady Women’s Size Medium Jersey Locks Pick[1]
5 Sainthood
50-1
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC/ CHC Inc
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Sire : Mshawish $7,500
Dam: Lemon Hero (Lemon Drop Kid)
Race Record: 3: 1-2-0
LSI Figures: 98-97-97
Seems to be aptly named for a horse that is owned in part
by born-again Christian W. Elliott Walden’s WinStar Farm. Despite its Jeff Ruby
Steaks Stakes race being much better than looks like on paper as been described
as a “problematic trip” and a “gallant effort” – essentially was forced to
almost stop mid stretch and then had to restart and find another gear to get up
for second. Even with these difficulties
Sainthood would need a miracle to win as the colt is slower than the top
contenders. The Locks will look elsewhere.
Locks Verdict: Will
not outrun its odds.
6 O
Besos 20-1
Owner: Bernard L
Barrett/ Tagg Team LLC
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
Sire : Orb
Dam: Snuggs and Kisses (Soto)
Race Record: 5: 2-0-1
LSI Figures: 104-100-107
O Besos is the homebred of Lousivlle-based emergency room
doctor Bernard Barrett. Besos meaning
kisses in Spanish (or beetles in Portugese) refers to the mare Snuggs and
Kisses (or is the Doc a fan of the Fab Four?) O Besos has been to date the best
horse Dr Barrett campaigned. Trainer Greg Foley is back in the Derby after saddling
his first Derby runner last year. 3 triple digit Locks speed figs. This one has
been charted as the deepest closer in the field but the Brisnet late speed figs
don’t hold up the perception that this is the horse that will be running the
fastest at the end of the race.
Locks Verdict: Top
half of the field.
7 Mandaloun
15-1
Owner: Juddmonte Farms Inc.
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Sire : Into Mischief $225,000
Dam: Brooch (Empire Maker)
Race Record: 5:
3-0-1
LSI Figures: 102-108-97
Prince Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farm has campaigned
champions like Arrogate and Frankel but only 5 horses have run under the
Juddmonte colors in the Kentucky Derby.
Even though Juddmonte is without a Kentucky Derby win, Aptitude in 2000
and Empire Maker in 2003 and Tacitus in 2019 all have had in-the-money finishes
and Hofburg the 2018 Juddmonte Derby entrant ended up 3rd in the Belmont. Wondering
where the name is from -- Mandaloun is a window type found in Lebanese
architecture borrowed from Florentine palaces of the 1600s. As to Mandaloun, the horse, there are some
things to like about this regally bred colt which includes the fact that he
does well on the Churchill Downs surface – which includes a win and some
blazing workouts at the track. But
cannot overlook Mandaloun’s 6th place clunker in the Louisiana Derby – the
average finish for horses that finished 5th or worse in the Louisiana Derby as
a prep for the Derby is 12th. Since
1940, there has been no Derby winner that was been worse than 5th in their
final prep before the Derby.
Lock’s Verdict: Looking elsewhere
8 Medina
Spirit 15-1
Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sire : Protonico
$5,000
Dam: Mongolia Changa (Brilliant Speed)
Race Record: 5; 2-3-0
LSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 103-95-96
If Saudi Arabian businessman Amr Zedan’s Medina Spirit wins
the Derby it would be quite a feat for a horse that has the unlikeliest of
pedigrees to be even racing in the Derby.
Medina Spirit is sired by Protonico who only had sired 17 foals in its
first crop and then purchased first for $1,000 as a weanling and then pinhooked
and sold for $35,000 in horse of racing age sale. Horse of racing age sale typically are for
those who’s owners just don’t think there is a lot of upside promise for a
horse. So quite a miracle that a horse
with such humble beginnings actually would be in Baffert’s barn to begin with
and has found its way into the starting gate in the Derby. This colt has done nothing wrong on the track
and has the same connections (Baffert/Velazquez) as Authentic the 2020 Kentucky
Derby winner. Expect this one to be
pressing pace but speed figs suggest this colt won’t be able to hold its speed
up the full 10 furlongs.
Locks Verdict: Tough
to pass on Johnny V but others are more likely to win
9 Hot
Rod Charlie 8-1
Owner: Roadrunner Racing/Boat Racing/Bob Strauss
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Sire : Oxbow $7,500
Dam: Indian Miss (Indian Charlie)
Race Record: 7:2-1-2
LSI Figures: 95-103-109
Hot Rod Charlie is owned in part by a bunch of fraternity
brothers from Brown University, Greg Helm and a group of fellow La Quinta
Country Club members and the former CEO of ProFlowers, Bob Strauss – a
partnership put together by trainer Doug O’Neill. Doug O’Neill is leveraging Hot
Rod Charlie’s success in raising awareness of the #RunningForJake campaign to
raise money for the Jake Panus Walk-on Football Endowed Scholarship at the
University of South Carolina (https://donate.sc.edu/AG/sfp/ath/jake-panus-walk-on-football-endowed-scholarship).
Jake Panus – a Fairfield, CT resident and teenage son of horse racing industry executive,
Stephen Panus, tragically died last summer. Jake had planned to attend
University of South Carolina and was a diehard fan of the university’s football
team. Hot Rod Charlie’s trainer Doug O’Neill is raising awareness of the fund raising
efforts in part by having Hot Rod Charlie this week wear a horse blanket bearing
the South Carolina logo with Jake’s initials. Good for Doug and team!
As to HRCs chances in winning the Derby – his last 4 races
– the colt has not done much wrong is only about ½ length of being perfect in
that stretch. Speed figs are among the best in the field. Sounds good but…..The
biggest indictment against Hot Rod Charlie is that one of the hottest jockey’s
in the land, Joel Rosario, passed on riding the colt and will ride Rock Your
World instead.
Locks Verdict: Out of mix
10 Midnight
Bourbon 20-1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Sire : Tiznow $40,000
Dam: Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon)
Race Record: 7:
2-2-3
LSI Figures: 99-106-107
Winchell Thoroughbreds is owned by the heirs of former
Denny’s CEO so the $525,000 spent on Midnight Bourbon was made by selling over
50,000 Grand Slam breakfasts – for those that are counting that is
approximately 65,000,000 calories. Wins two class superlatives - best looking and most likely to act up in the paddock. Picks up Mike Smith as rider – this will
give Big Money Mike one more Kentucky Derby mount than Bill Shoemaker establishing
a new record of 27 Kentucky Derby mounts. Over the last 2 races, Midnight Bourbon’s
speed figures LSI, Brisnet, Beyers all are nearly the best in the field. Has
2-turn race experience at Churchill Downs. Workouts at Churchill Downs have
been sizzling with 2 bullet works. Pedigree fits the 10 furlong distance. That
all said there are some concerning elements of this colt’s past performances: come-home
times and Brisnet late pace speed figs suggest that Midnight Bourbon has not
been extending its speed over the distance and the chart comments confirms –
“outfinished” “outfinished” “weakened”.
Steve Asmussen leads trainers dubiously with highest number of Kentucky
Derby starters (21) without a win.
Locks Verdict: Top
half of field
11 Dynamic
One 20-1
Owner: Repole Stables / Phipps Stables/ St Elias Stables
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Sire : Union Rags $30,000
Dam: Beat The Drums (Smart Strike)
Race Record: 5:
1-2-0
LSI Figures: 89-98-99
On November 13, Felix Unger was asked to remove
himself from his place of residence. That request came from his wife. Deep
down, he knew she was right, but he also knew that someday, he would return to
her.
There doesn’t seem to be a more unlikely Odd Couple in
horse racing than the partnership between the Phipps family and Mike
Repole. The Phipps stable are from heirs
of a family fortune made from Carnegie Steel and the establishment of their own
private investment/family office business, Bessemer Trust – the Phipps have
owned thoroughbred race horses in the US since the 1800s including owning a
racing stable in partnership with Lord Derby in France. Mike Repole is the son
of Italian immigrants and is straight out of Middle Village, Queens and can be
seen at the race track sporting suits of Seaver Blue and Piazza Orange to honor
his beloved NY Mets. Repole has had tremendous success running and selling
beverage (Vitaminwater, Bodyarmour) and food (Pirate’s Booty) brands. Old money meets new money in this partnership
is it the Dynamic Duo owning the Dynamic One? As to Dynamic One’s chances in the Derby, has
2 solid 9 furlong races under the belt – including a 2nd in the Wood
Memorial where Trakus data actually shows that Dynamic One ran that race - 4
lengths faster than winner Bourbonic. BrisNet
Late Pace speed figs align with those of previous winners of the Derby. Don't forget Jose Ortiz in the saddle - who is capable of a ride worthy to be hanging in the Met. LSIs are light for a Derby winner but the Locks feels will be there to make things interesting.
Locks Verdict: In
the mix
12 Helium
50-1
Owner: D.J. Stable LLC
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Sire : Ironicus $5,000
Dam: Thundering Emilia (Thunder Gulch)
Race Record: 3: 3-0-0
LSI Figures: 100-103-95
Helium comes to the Derby with a perfect 3 for 3 record and
last race being a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa Bay Derby has been a prep for 2 Derby
winners and ranks 4th of the major preps in terms of % of
in-the-money Derby finishes out of Derby runners who used the race as a prep. Helium’s owner is tax and accounting geek Leonard
Green who is perhaps a NY Mets fan in that he has campaigned a horse called
DeGrom. Unfortunately, Green didn’t pick
the greatest of horses to bestow such a name on - as the horse DeGrom was a
gelding that knocked around the claiming ranks.
What a shame! Named Helium because the horse was light on his feet during workouts. Seems this one is a few lengths slower than the best in
the field as such this one won’t give trainer Mark Casse and jockey Julien Leparoux
their first Derby wins.
Locks Verdict: Out
of the money
13
Hidden Stash 50-1
Owner: BBN Racing LLC
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Sire: Constitution
$85,000
Dam: Making Mark Money (Smart Strike)
Race Record: 7: 2-1-2
LSI Figures: 98-94-96
Hidden Stash is owned by Braxton Lynch’s BBN Racing (a group of UK basketball fans) – while Braxton Lynch sounds like a name from a long list of feeble Denver Broncos quarterbacks since John Elway and Peyton Manning were at the helm– Braxton is actually a woman with a long history in the horse racing industry. The name of the horse makes one think if the colt would have better chances if the race was run 11 days earlier. Beyond the Big Blue Nation UK hoops fans - its understood that Syracuse basketball coach Jim Boeheim owns a small piece in the horse - which disqualifies this one from any chance of being selected by the Locks. Hidden Stash has a 2-turn win on the track, a running style that will favor a fast pace and a pedigree that can get the distance. Trainer Victoria Oliver brings her first horse to the Kentucky Derby. Hidden Stash threw a relative clunker in the Blue Grass and speed figs don’t match up to the top contenders.
Locks Verdict: Pass
14 Essential Quality 2-1
Owner: Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Sire : Tapit $185,000 (stud fee)
Dam: Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality
Race Record: 5: 5-0-0
LSI Figures: 96-102-106
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum’ Godolphin Stable has
won almost every major horse in the world - almost - as the Kentucky Derby
remains elusive to the biggest and most expensive worldwide horse racing
operation. Out of the 11 Godolphin
horses that have lined up for the Derby - the best finish has been a 4th by Frosted
in 2015. Essential Quality like many
Godolphin horses is stacked on the pedigree front - Tapit is the leading sire
and the dam was graded stakes placed and has the most recent Japanese Triple
Crown winner, Contrail, in the family. The al-Maktoum’s can have quite a weekend as
Sheikh Mohammed’s recently-departed brother Hamdan bin Rashid al-Maktoum’s
Shadwell Stables owns Malathaat, the morning-line favorite of the Kentucky
Oaks. In the al-Maktoum family - just don't take Dad's car without permission - seems the Sheikh takes "you're grounded" to the next level.
The Locks has realized over the past year + that life is
too short to not to make things easier on yourself – the Locks historically has
looked to always beat the favorite. Went
0-fer in trying to beat Frankel. Went 0-fer trying to beat American Pharoah
(had wrong horse in the Travers). This summer in wagering the Saratoga meet – I
didn’t look at morning line odds in making picks – this forced me not to avoid
betting the favorite and bet the most likely winners. Although the Locks ROI was about the same but
cashed significantly more tickets – more wins even chalky ones still make the
Locks smile. So in analyzing the Derby –
the Locks went in not trying to beat Essential Quality but to find the most
likely winner and given the implied probability of 2-1 odds is that Essential
Quality has a 33% chance of winning. I’d
be willing to take that probability.
Consider the following:
- - Fastest closing last race 1/8th (12.10)
out of any horse in the field.
- - Essential Quality’s Blue Grass was more
impressive than a victory by a neck as per the chart. Trakus data shows that EQ actually ran 3
lengths faster than Highly Motivated.
- - Most wins (5).
- - Top Brisnet speed fig, Top Brisnet Late pace
fig (9f+,last 2 race average), Top Brisnet Prime Power.
- - Has won at Churchill Downs already
- -Essential Quality won the Breeder’s Cup
Juvenile which only 2 horses Nyquist (2016) and Street Sense (2007) have earned
the BC Juvenile/Derby Double. However,
since Street Sense’s win in the Derby after 14 others failed to pull off the
Double, the Breeder’s Cup winner has had an average finish of better than 4th
in the Derby so a very high chance EQ will hit the board.
There is too much to like – this one is the Lock.
Locks Verdict: The 2021 Kentucky Derby Lock
15 Rock
Your World 5-1
Owner: Hronis Racing LLC
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Sire : Candy Ride $75,000
Dam: Dancing Afleet (Afleet Alex)
Race Record: 3: 3-0-0
LSI Figures: 100-103-100
Since 2000, 15 horses have come into the Derby undefeated
and 5 of those have finished 1st in the Derby. If you only consider horses coming in from
the major Derby preps other than the Wood Memorial – the number of no-loss
Derby participants have been 10 with 7 of those finishing in the top 3. As such wagering on Rock Your World and
Essential Quality who meet those qualifications is a good bet. As Rock Your
World has only one dirt race, we are not certain if his performances will
translate on a different track. The El Segundo Sand that Santa Anita uses as a
track surface differs from almost every other track, for instance, Churchill
Downs has a sandy loam cushion main track with a 12-inch clay base. Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby was the
best individual performance (by measure of speed figs) by any of the Derby
contestants – the 100 Beyer speed figure is 3 points higher and the 124
Timeform speed figure is 6 points higher than Essential Quality’s best
performance. The biggest positive to
consider on Rock Your World is that white-hot Joel Rosario, who has put himself
clearly in the ranks of the elite, dropped Hot Rod Charlie to pick up the mount
on this colt. The detractor on this one
is: Trakus data shows Medina Spirit
actually ran a faster Santa Anita Derby than Rock Your World – also Rock Your
World’s last race BrisNet late pace figures falls below the Locks Line – the
qualifying demarcation line for a Derby winner.
Locks Verdict: In
the mix
16 King
Fury 20-1 SCRATCHED
Owner: Fern Circle
Stables
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: BJ Hernandez
Sire: Curlin $175,000
Dam: Tarls (Flatter)
Race Record: 6: 3-0-0
LSI Figures: 85-95-104
King Fury’s owner Paul Fireman circa 1982 loved watching
Jane Fonda’s workout video, wearing spandex, leg warmers and white Reebok
aerobic shoes so much that he bought the US distribution rights for Reebok and
then sold it years later for north of $3 billion. That largesse was responsible for the
$950,000 purchase of King Fury at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. King Fury
does have a 2-turn win at Churchill Downs and may get a step up on a wet track
but inconsistency has plagued this colt and appears to be ready for another
bounce. Named for 6'9" boxer Tyson Fury aka The Gypsy King.
Locks Verdict: Consider
in exotics on wet track.
17 Highly
Motivated 10-1
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sire : Into Mischief
$225,000
Dam: Strong Incentive (Warrior’s Reward)
Race Record: 5: 2-2-1
LSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 104-108-106
Despite being one of the leading owners for the last 15
years, Klaravich Stables has only sent 2 other horses to the Kentucky Derby. Owner Seth Klarman has made money as an
investor and hedge fund manager and has historically used financial terms as the
naming convention for his horses, successfully campaigned horses such as
Balance the Books, Currency Swap, Deeply Undervalued, Takeover Target, etc.. However
to name Highly Motivated, he relied heavily on the colt’s dam. This one has the
look and feel of a Derby winner when handicapping this colt – the pedigree, the
5 for 5 in-the-money finishes, strong speed figures (LSI, BrisNet, Beyers)
including big Brisnet late pace figs, experienced elite jockey, close finish
loss in the Blue Grass to a heavy favorite but the knocks to keep this one from
the top spot are: no other horse has won
the Derby from post 17, has not won at longer than 6.5 furlongs, when looking
at Trakus data shows that Highly Motivated although only losing by a neck in
the Blue Grass – Essential Quality actually ran about 3 lengths faster race.
Verdict: In the exotics
mix
18 Super
Stock 30-1
Owner: Erv Woolsey/Keith Asmussen
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Sire : Dialed In $15,000
Dam: Super Girlie (Closing Argument)
Race Record: 8:2-2-2
LSI Figures: 102-89-100
Super Stock is owned in part by Erv Woolsey who is a
Nashville-based talent agent. Erv
represents acts such as George Strait and Lee Ann Wommack but also is agent for
country act Ian Munsick who’s top song is “Horses are Faster”. Erv will want to channel the sentiments of
the song into Super Stock which includes the lyric “I guess I'll sit on down
and pour another shot of Crown” Although Super Stock has not finished ahead of
any Derby runner - Essential Qualify, Known Agenda, Midnight Bourbon and King
Fury all have outplaced Super Stock. Best race of Super Stock career besides the
Arkansas Derby was the 2-turn Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs which
Super Stock just lost by ½ length – beyond that however – as Erv Woolsey should know perhaps Super Stock may be more ready for a gig at Texas roadhouse than at the Grand Ole Orpy.
Locks Verdict: Out
of the mix.
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1
Owner: Live Oak
Plantation
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Sire : Into Mischief $225,000
Dam: Souper Scoop (Tapit)
Race Record: 3: 2-1-0
LSI Figures: 104-107-99
Soup and Sandwich is a homebred of Charlotte Weber’s Live
Oak Plantation. Weber is the grand-daughter of the founder of Campbell
Soup. Live Oak typically uses the word
“Soup” or “Souper” as a naming convention as in Souper Echo, Souper Jaguar,
Souper Jackpot, Souper Escape as a small example of names Live Oak has used for
their horses. This colt comes into the
race lightly raced and without doing anything wrong on the track. 2 triple-digit late pace speed figs suggests
that this one is traveling fast at the end of races. Breeding is 2nd to none.
With 2 zippy works at Churchill Downs – has shown does like the surface under
the Twin Spires. Trakus data actually
shows that Soup and Sandwich ran a faster race than Known Agenda in the Florida
Derby. Tyler Gaffalione is up to the task in the big races.
Locks Verdict: Use
in exotics.
20 Bourbonic
30-1
Owner: Calumet Farm
LLC
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Sire : Bernadini $35,000
Dam: Dancing Afleet (Afleet Alex)
Race Record: 6: 3-1-0
LSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 100-105-99
Bourbonic is owned by the historic Calumet Farm which is
credited with 8 Derby wins -- mostly in the 1940s/50s with the likes of
Citation and Whirlaway. Calumet Farm is no longer owned by the original Wright
family and horses no longer run under Calumet’s famous Devil’s red and blue
silks. The farm and stable is now owned
by Brad Kelley, a Kentucky billionaire who made his money in tobacco
business. But, one of the best stories
of this Kentucky Derby is not about this owner but Bourbonic’s rider. 37
year old jockey, Kendrick Carmouche, getting his first Derby mount. Over the past few years, after moving from
the Pennsylvania circuit, Kendrick has been a popular jockey with the fans at
the NYRA race tracks (Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga). He’s best known of giving his mounts chances
by getting his horses into the race early.
However, his Kentucky Derby mount will have to be ridden differently
much like how he adapted Bourbonic’s running style in winning the Wood Memorial
at 72-1 by coming far off the pace to win.
Can be this year’s long shot closer that hits the board.
Locks Verdict: Consider
in exotics.
The Locks Bets are:
◎
14 Essential Quality 2-1
〇
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1
▲ 15 Rock Your World 5-1
△
11 Dynamic One 20-1
△
1 Known Agenda 6-1
△
17 Highly Motivated 10-1
$30 WP #14 = $60
$1 Exacta #14 over all/ All over #14 =
$38
$1 Exacta #14, #19, #1, #15 over #14, #19, #1, #15,
#17,#11, #20 = $1 x 4 x 6 = $24
$1 Exacta Box #14 , #15, #1 / $1 Exacta
Box #14, #15, #19/ $1 Exacta Box #14, #15, #11/ $1 Exacta Box #14, #15, #17 =
$1 x 4 x 6 = $24
$1 Trifecta #14, #15, #1, #19 over #14,
#19, #1, #15, #17, #20 over #14, #19, #1, #15, #17, #20 = $1 x 4 x 5 x 4 = $80
Kentucky Oaks
◎
12 Search Results 3-1
〇
10 Malathaat 5-2
▲ 4 Crazy Beautiful 15-1
△
14 Millefeuille 20-1
Oaks/Derby Double $1 #4, #10, #12, #14 / #14, #15, #1, #19 = $1 x
4 x 4 $16
2000 Guineas
◎
Master of the Seas 15/2
〇
Mutasaabeq 7-1
▲ Van Gogh 11-1
[1] If this horse wins will be wearing said fashion
item on my next flight – which will be the Locks first flight since 2019.
