Before we focus in on the Derby Lock lets figure out how we look at and bet the Derby - the
Locks looks for horses that fit the historic Locks Winning Pattern: those that can win, those that
can run fast and those that conform to history. Winners, Runners and Conformers make the
Locks Derby Winning Pattern....
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible that have at least 3 wins. Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race. Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).
In this year field, Tom’s Ready, My Man Sam, Majesto only have 1 won and there is a maiden, Trojan Nation.
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.
Recent data shows the following results:
Since 1993, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7+ lengths off the pace, 3/4m - 6 lengths, 1mile - 2 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 2 wire-to-wire winners and 1 other horse that was less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
Conformers
I enjoy history and any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that I was a half a semester shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. I recently tried to parlay my accumulation of useless knowledge into a spot on Jeopardy! but the test I took had no less than 3 references to Russian history....the subject of the same class that tripped me up in completing my history minor. Albeit I thought by making vodka drinks that I -- by osmosis -- would learn about Russia -- surprisingly it didn’t work and I was asked to drop the class. That said....I do
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible that have at least 3 wins. Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race. Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).
In this year field, Tom’s Ready, My Man Sam, Majesto only have 1 won and there is a maiden, Trojan Nation.
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.
Recent data shows the following results:
Since 1993, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7+ lengths off the pace, 3/4m - 6 lengths, 1mile - 2 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 2 wire-to-wire winners and 1 other horse that was less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
Conformers
I enjoy history and any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that I was a half a semester shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. I recently tried to parlay my accumulation of useless knowledge into a spot on Jeopardy! but the test I took had no less than 3 references to Russian history....the subject of the same class that tripped me up in completing my history minor. Albeit I thought by making vodka drinks that I -- by osmosis -- would learn about Russia -- surprisingly it didn’t work and I was asked to drop the class. That said....I do
like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 140 years of data already accumulated
and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
-
- Since 1991 (Historical Reference: Boris Yelstin is ruling in the Kremlin), there have been no winners of the Kentucky Derby with a
sire who had produced another Kentucky Derby winner. Trojan Nation (Street Cry) is the only
horse in field whose sire has also sired another Kentucky Derby winner (Street Sense).
Actually pedigrees are concentrated this year, there are 4 whose sire or grandsire is Tapit, 3
whose sire or grandsire is Giant’s Causeway and 3 sired by Uncle Mo whose first crop are
3yos.
-
- Since 1966 (Historical Reference: England wins the World Cup), only 2 winners (Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus) of the
Kentucky Derby have only a single race as a 2yo. Outwork, Shagaf, and My Man Sam are
those in this years field with only 1 start as a juvenile.
-
- Since 1937 (Historical Reference: Average price of a new car is $760 ), only 9 maidens have raced in the Kentucky Derby and the
best finish of these maidens are an 8th place in 1958. This year only Trojan Nation is a
maiden.
-
- The average number of starts before the Derby by the Derby winner has consistently grown
smaller over the years in the 1970s it was 13.6 starts, in the 1980s it was 9.3 starts, in the 90s
it was 9 starts, from the period from 2000 to 2015, it was 5.8.
-
- Since 1980 (Historical Reference: AC/DC release Back in Black), horses coming out of some
of the Southern California Derby prep races actually have proven to be more successful than
some East Coast preps. Of the major prep races, of all Santa Anita Derby starters who also
raced in the Kentucky Derby 24% of them finished in the Top 3 in the Derby with 65% of them
finishing in the top half of the Derby field. Compare that with the Wood or the Blue Grass who
shared similar stats, 18% Top 3/50% Top half.
-
- I can always admit when I’m wrong I always thought that the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a
2-turn race at Churchill Down for 2yos, and the Remsen Stakes, a 9 furlong race at Aqueduct
for 2yos, were good predicative races for the Derby but stats have proven me wrong. Of those
that started in either of those races and also started in the Derby only 16% have come in the
Top 3 of the Derby and only 49% have finished in the top half of the Derby field. But take the
Frontrunner Stakes a 8.5 furlong race at Santa Anita for 2yos run every September, horses
that have run in that prep and also run in the Derby have hit the top 3 at a clip of 29%
additionally of that same universe 71% have come in the top half of the Derby field. Gun
Runner, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Tom’s Ready, Mo Tom come in from either Ky JC or the
Remsen. Nyqvist comes in from FrontRunner.
-
- Despite Californina-bred, California Chrome winning the Derby last year, 75% of Kentucky
Derby winners have been Kentucky-breds. This year only Mor Spirit and Tom’s Ready are
both the only non-KY breds and are both PA-bred. Last PA-bred to win, Smarty Jones in 2004.
-
- Since 1993, only the very unlikely Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register at
least a 90 Beyer speed figure before the Derby. This year, Oscar Nominated, Shagaf, Tom’s
Ready, Majesto, and Mo Tom also have yet achieved a 90 Beyer.
- Since 1940, there has been only one Derby entrant who raced in Japan, Ski Captain in 1995 who finished 14th, Lani comes into the Derby after racing in Japan and then going to Dubai and winning the UAE Derby.
- In the last 19 years, only long-shots Charismatic and Giacomo won the Derby with a sub-100
last race CSI. The average last-race CSI for the past 19 not taking in the sub-100 CSI
performers has been 105.
Unfortunately the Locks missed on American Pharoah last year with the following assessment.
May be the Derby favorite.. Based on similarities, American Pharoah may also be called Bodemeister II -- both owned by Zayat, trained by Baffert, both impressively won the Arkansas Derby Bodemeister went on - as the Derby favorite - to click off incredibly fast fractions (:45.1, 1:09.1, 1:35) only to run out of gas in the last 1/8th mile and finish 2nd. But actually looking a little bit closer it seems American Pharaoh isn’t quite as good as Bodemeister was coming into the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister’s speed figs in the Derby preps were a click faster - Bode was able to finish the Arkansas Derby in a better time and stronger energy - Bode’s pedigree suggested more stamina. Also consider American Pharaoh’s time in the Arkansas Derby also didn’t hold up well against the time lodged by older handicap horses in the Oaklawn Handicap raced in the same conditions - AP was more than .5 second slower and also closing furlong time didn’t hold up. American Pharaoh already is a champion but the 2yo champion since 1978 has only won the Derby once (Street Sense). However, the biggest detractor at low odds on AP may be the colt’s running style of wanting to be on the lead - setting the pace has only proven effective for a Derby winner in races where it could be easily predicted that the speed would hold up.
The Locks looks to make amends with the line up.
Unfortunately the Locks missed on American Pharoah last year with the following assessment.
May be the Derby favorite.. Based on similarities, American Pharoah may also be called Bodemeister II -- both owned by Zayat, trained by Baffert, both impressively won the Arkansas Derby Bodemeister went on - as the Derby favorite - to click off incredibly fast fractions (:45.1, 1:09.1, 1:35) only to run out of gas in the last 1/8th mile and finish 2nd. But actually looking a little bit closer it seems American Pharaoh isn’t quite as good as Bodemeister was coming into the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister’s speed figs in the Derby preps were a click faster - Bode was able to finish the Arkansas Derby in a better time and stronger energy - Bode’s pedigree suggested more stamina. Also consider American Pharaoh’s time in the Arkansas Derby also didn’t hold up well against the time lodged by older handicap horses in the Oaklawn Handicap raced in the same conditions - AP was more than .5 second slower and also closing furlong time didn’t hold up. American Pharaoh already is a champion but the 2yo champion since 1978 has only won the Derby once (Street Sense). However, the biggest detractor at low odds on AP may be the colt’s running style of wanting to be on the lead - setting the pace has only proven effective for a Derby winner in races where it could be easily predicted that the speed would hold up.
The Locks looks to make amends with the line up.
The Locks Rating
|
The Locks
|
Morning Line
|
☆☆☆☆☆
|
Mohaymen
|
Nyquist
|
☆☆☆☆
|
My Man Sam
Nyquist Destin |
Exaggerator
Mohaymen Gun Runner Creator |
☆☆☆
|
Brody’s Cause
Tom’s Ready Exaggerator Lani Gun Runner Outwork Creator Mor Spirit Whitmore Suddenbreakingnews |
Mor Spirit
Brody’s Cause Danzing Candy Outwork Destin Suddenbreakingnews Mo Tom My Man Sam Whitmore Shagaf |
☆☆
|
Mo Tom
Majesto- Danzing- Candy Shagaf- Oscar Nominated |
Majesto-
Lani Tom’s Ready |
☆
|
Trojan Nation
|
Oscar Nominated Trojan Nation
|
1 Trojan Nation
Pedigree: Street Cry-Storm Song (Summer Squall) Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
Jockey: Aaron Gryder
Record: 6:0.1.3
Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-96-91
Interesting that 2 UCLA grads own a horse named Trojan Nation. The Locks’ Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick1
The Lock’s Rating: ☆
2 Suddenbreakingnews
Pedigree: Mineshaft-Uchitel (Afleet Alex) Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Luis Quinonez
Record: 8:3.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-107
1 If this one wins on my next airline flight the Locks will wear a pink Tom Brady women’s size medium jersey. Mine That Bird was the only former Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick that has painfully won the Derby.
Pedigree: Street Cry-Storm Song (Summer Squall) Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
Jockey: Aaron Gryder
Record: 6:0.1.3
Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-96-91
Interesting that 2 UCLA grads own a horse named Trojan Nation. The Locks’ Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick1
The Lock’s Rating: ☆
2 Suddenbreakingnews
Pedigree: Mineshaft-Uchitel (Afleet Alex) Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Luis Quinonez
Record: 8:3.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-107
1 If this one wins on my next airline flight the Locks will wear a pink Tom Brady women’s size medium jersey. Mine That Bird was the only former Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick that has painfully won the Derby.
Dam of this horse is named after Tiger Wood’s mistress - perhaps Elin Nordegren hoped Tiger
had something in common as this one. Suddenbreakingnews is trying to buck history in being
only the 3rd gelding to win the Kentucky Derby since 1929.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
3 Creator
Pedigree: Tapit-Morena (Privately Held) Trainer:Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
Record: 8:2.4.1
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 102-103-100
Oft a bridesmaid - 4 2nds — but could pick up a piece The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
4 Mo Tom
Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Caroni (Rubiano) Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Jockey: Corie Lanerie
Record: 7:3.0.3
Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-99-103
Tom Benson, owner of Mo Tom as well as owner of the New Orleans Saints and New Orleans Pelicans is quite cocky with his silks selection - 3 crowns aka Triple Crowns. Winner at Churchill Downs going 2 turns only Brody’s Cause can also boast that accomplishment.
Pedigree: Tapit-Morena (Privately Held) Trainer:Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
Record: 8:2.4.1
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 102-103-100
Oft a bridesmaid - 4 2nds — but could pick up a piece The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
4 Mo Tom
Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Caroni (Rubiano) Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Jockey: Corie Lanerie
Record: 7:3.0.3
Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-99-103
Tom Benson, owner of Mo Tom as well as owner of the New Orleans Saints and New Orleans Pelicans is quite cocky with his silks selection - 3 crowns aka Triple Crowns. Winner at Churchill Downs going 2 turns only Brody’s Cause can also boast that accomplishment.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
5 Gun Runner
Pedigree: Candy Ride-Quiet Giant (Giant’s Causeway) Trainer: Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 5:4.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-101
Amazingly the last winner of the Kentucky Derby who won their maiden at Churchill Downs was Brokers Tip in 1933, so Gun Runner who won its debut at CD will have to buck history.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
6 My Man Sam
Pedigree: Trappe Shot-Lauren Byrd (Arch) Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Record: 4:1.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 94-110-104
A colt that has only 4 races but improving each time. Will be running late to get a piece. Sports highest CSI in the field.
Pedigree: Candy Ride-Quiet Giant (Giant’s Causeway) Trainer: Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 5:4.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-101
Amazingly the last winner of the Kentucky Derby who won their maiden at Churchill Downs was Brokers Tip in 1933, so Gun Runner who won its debut at CD will have to buck history.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
6 My Man Sam
Pedigree: Trappe Shot-Lauren Byrd (Arch) Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Record: 4:1.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 94-110-104
A colt that has only 4 races but improving each time. Will be running late to get a piece. Sports highest CSI in the field.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
7 Oscar Nominated
Pedigree: Kitten’s Joy - Devine Actress (Theatrical) Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Julien Leparourx
Record: 7:3.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 109-103-95
The US’s top owner in terms of purses won claimed this one in a maiden claiming race - only long shots Mine that Bird and Charismatic ran for a tag in their maiden win.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
8 Lani
Pedigree: Tapit-Heavenly Romance (Sunday Silence) Trainer: Mikko Matsunaga
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Record: 6:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-xx-xx
Kentucky-bred, Japan trained and raced, UAE Derby winner in Dubai will be only the 2nd Kentucky Derby runner that has raced in Japan, Ski Captain 14th in 1995 is the other runner. Although Lani has raced and won at a distance longer than any other runner, this Tapit colt’s final time extrapolated out would be several lengths off in the Dubai World Cup.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
7 Oscar Nominated
Pedigree: Kitten’s Joy - Devine Actress (Theatrical) Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Julien Leparourx
Record: 7:3.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 109-103-95
The US’s top owner in terms of purses won claimed this one in a maiden claiming race - only long shots Mine that Bird and Charismatic ran for a tag in their maiden win.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
8 Lani
Pedigree: Tapit-Heavenly Romance (Sunday Silence) Trainer: Mikko Matsunaga
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Record: 6:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-xx-xx
Kentucky-bred, Japan trained and raced, UAE Derby winner in Dubai will be only the 2nd Kentucky Derby runner that has raced in Japan, Ski Captain 14th in 1995 is the other runner. Although Lani has raced and won at a distance longer than any other runner, this Tapit colt’s final time extrapolated out would be several lengths off in the Dubai World Cup.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
9 Destin
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 106-104-98
Only horse in field to yet race at longer than 8.5 furlongs but also is one of only 2 in the field that have a last race triple digit Beyer speed fig. Full brother to Creative Cause who was the Locks 2nd pick in the 2012 Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
10 Whitmore
Pedigree:Pleasantly Perfect-Melody’s Spirit (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey:Victor Espinoza
Record: 6:2.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-104
Gets Triple Crown winning Victor Espinoza but only wins are going 6 furlongs. Named after high school teammate of trainer Ron Moquett, Wilbur Whitmore.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 106-104-98
Only horse in field to yet race at longer than 8.5 furlongs but also is one of only 2 in the field that have a last race triple digit Beyer speed fig. Full brother to Creative Cause who was the Locks 2nd pick in the 2012 Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
10 Whitmore
Pedigree:Pleasantly Perfect-Melody’s Spirit (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey:Victor Espinoza
Record: 6:2.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-104
Gets Triple Crown winning Victor Espinoza but only wins are going 6 furlongs. Named after high school teammate of trainer Ron Moquett, Wilbur Whitmore.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
11 Exaggerator
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Record: 9:4.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-103-107
Would have been the Lock if the track was to be wet but it it will be a fast track - been beat by others in the field that are going off at higher prices.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
12 Tom’s Ready
Pedigree:More Than Ready-Goodbye Stranger (Broad Brush) Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: 30-1
Record:9:1.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-87-101
Another Tom Benson entry but trained by Dallas Stewart who is known for 80s hair style as well as getting unlikely horses in the top 3 of the Derby (Golden Soul in 2013, Commanding Curve in 2014).
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Record: 9:4.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-103-107
Would have been the Lock if the track was to be wet but it it will be a fast track - been beat by others in the field that are going off at higher prices.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
12 Tom’s Ready
Pedigree:More Than Ready-Goodbye Stranger (Broad Brush) Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: 30-1
Record:9:1.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-87-101
Another Tom Benson entry but trained by Dallas Stewart who is known for 80s hair style as well as getting unlikely horses in the top 3 of the Derby (Golden Soul in 2013, Commanding Curve in 2014).
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
13 Nyquist
Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry) Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Record: 7:7.0.0
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-109-94
Not much to knock here — 7 for 7, good speed figs, winner of BC Juvenile. But at the price, can’t get away of the fact that Nyqvist, named after hockey player. Gustav Nyquist, drifted badly in the stretch (sign of tiring) in the Florida Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
14 Mohaymen
Pedigree: Tapit-Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Record: 6:5.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 93-105-109
Liked this colt since its Remsen win last November. Can be this years version of Thunder
Gulch who was completely dismissed in the Derby after a 4th place finish and won at 25-1 odds. If take away the Florida Derby which was run on a sticky track surface has not done anything wrong. Good works at Churchill Dwns.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆
Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry) Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Record: 7:7.0.0
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-109-94
Not much to knock here — 7 for 7, good speed figs, winner of BC Juvenile. But at the price, can’t get away of the fact that Nyqvist, named after hockey player. Gustav Nyquist, drifted badly in the stretch (sign of tiring) in the Florida Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆
14 Mohaymen
Pedigree: Tapit-Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Record: 6:5.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 93-105-109
Liked this colt since its Remsen win last November. Can be this years version of Thunder
Gulch who was completely dismissed in the Derby after a 4th place finish and won at 25-1 odds. If take away the Florida Derby which was run on a sticky track surface has not done anything wrong. Good works at Churchill Dwns.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆
15 Outwork
Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Nonna Mia (Empire Maker) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey:John Velazquez
Record: 4:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-104
Has been working great at CD but running style will do this one in.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
16 Shagaf
Pedigree: Bernadini-Muhaawara (Unbridled’s Song) Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 4:3.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-102-103
Gotham winner - but shows tiring form.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
17 Mor Spirit
Pedigree: Eskendereya-Im a Dixie Girl (Dixie Union) Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 7:3.4.0
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-104-97
Hasn't done much wrong in career. Can Baffert catch lightening in the bottle again.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
18 Majesto
Pedigree: Tiznow-Unacloud (Unaccounted For) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (who??)
Record: 6:1.2.2
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 98-99-88
Took 5 times to break maiden -
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆
19 Brody’s Cause
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway-Sweet Breanna (Sahm) Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record:6:3.0.1
Morning Line Odds: 12-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-93-91
Flattered by Oaks winner.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
20 Danzing Candy
Pedigree: Twirling Candy-Talking and Singing (Songandaprayer) Trainer: Clifford Sise
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 5:3.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 88-106-112
The likely pace setter will have to shoot out of the 20 hole and across the track to get in that position - with stamina limitations already doesn’t bode well for this one.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆ The Locks wagers:
$1 exacta #14 over all = $1 x 19 = $19
$1 exacta all over #14 = $1 x 19 = $19
$1 exacta box #14, #13, #9, #6 = $12
$1 trifecta #14, #13, #9, #6 = $24
$1 exacta #12,#13,#14 = $6
$4 WP #6 = $6
Total = $86
I
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆
20 Danzing Candy
Pedigree: Twirling Candy-Talking and Singing (Songandaprayer) Trainer: Clifford Sise
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 5:3.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 88-106-112
The likely pace setter will have to shoot out of the 20 hole and across the track to get in that position - with stamina limitations already doesn’t bode well for this one.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆ The Locks wagers:
$1 exacta #14 over all = $1 x 19 = $19
$1 exacta all over #14 = $1 x 19 = $19
$1 exacta box #14, #13, #9, #6 = $12
$1 trifecta #14, #13, #9, #6 = $24
$1 exacta #12,#13,#14 = $6
$4 WP #6 = $6
Total = $86
I
