Tom Brady: The Gisele-Induced Downward Spiral Continues - February 2019 Edition

Brady's 2010 Rhinoplasty is obvious in this before and after photo

It is hard to argue against facts -- Tom Brady is jinxed and has been since he's hooked up with super-model, Gisele Bundchen (aka Ginxele). Brady's famed 29-10 (.744) playoff record doesn't tell the real tale.  With Gisele in tow - Brady had zero (none, nada, zilch) Super Bowl rings and a 10-7 (.588) playoff winning percentage before his tainted "win" of Super Bowl XLIX....Reference point from Brady's comparable playoff success -  Mark Sanchez has a .667 playoff winning percentage as does Broadway Joe Namath.  Even his .744 career mark is surpassed by ordinary QBs - Jeff Hostetler (.800), Trent Dilfer (.833).  But its not only about the lack of true and untainted success on the football field - the series of events and mishaps that have occurred while linked to Gisele is not simply by coincidence.  

Brady is at fault here for his own downslide, as he should have known, that even before meeting the Brazilian 'beauty' - Gisele's cryptonite-esque effect on men was well known.  Leo DiCaprio while dating Gisele was making fluffy-popcorn flicks and panned by movie critics but in the year after Gisele and Leo broke up - he was up for 2 Oscars. Likewise, film actor Chris Evans when with Gisele couldn't even find a job in TV commercials but years removed from Gisele now plays Captain America in some of the highest grossing movies ever.  She also stymied polo player Ricardo Mansur - who only started being the Brazilian King of the Chukkas after he stopped dating Gisele.  Although, Kelly Slater racked up 2 ASP World Tour Surfing championships while dating Gisele - he was possibly quoted "if I kept on dating Gisele - my surfing would have certainly suffered - I'd be renting Bogey boards to bratty kids in New Smyrna Beach right now". She also dated actor Josh Harnett when his movie the Black Dalhia (32% Rotten Tomato score) was released - prophetically - it is a movie about men becoming obsessed and having their lives ruined over a woman - his career still hasn't recovered from his stint with Gisele.

So what has been the impact on Tom Brady - let's see since the beginning of 2007, when the Boston Globe first reported that Brady and Gisele were dating....its been a downward spiral of a deflated career....

January 21, 2007....loses to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game. 

August 2007.....Brady doing his best Antonio Cromarte impersonation - a cast-off girlfriend gives birth to Brady's son, Jack. Brady's baby momma is actress Bridget Moynihan.  She influences young Jack to grow up to be a Jets fan.

February 2008...despite running through the season undefeated and going into the Super Bowl as a 12-point favorite - the Giants D-line rattles Tommy and the G-men win.  Giant Plaxico Burress predicts score to be a Giant win 23-17.  Brady smugly laughs off the prediction "We're only going to score 17 points?!?" .  Patriots lose 17-14.  T-Boy was sacked 5 times.

September 2008....season opener vs Kansas City, Tommy Boy suffers a season ending knee injury, had has original surgery botched and was riddled with infections in the knee, there were even viable rumours that Tommy had his leg amputated from the knee down.  Patriots even without Brady go on to have a 11-5 record --- begging the question of the Patriots success - is it the Belichick system?

April 4, 2009....Brady's wedding to Ginxele was marred by gunplay when a couple of Brady's guests started shooting at wedding photogs. 

September 9, 2009....involved in a 2 car accident in the Back Bay in the wee hours of the morning...what was he doing speeding through the Back Bay at such an early hour?? was he drinking? was he returning home from a tryst with a college co-ed? We will never know as the Boston police, of course, sweep details of accident under the rug and blame accident on a poor laborer. 

January 10, 2010....throws 3 interceptions in a crushing playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens  

July 2010...Shows up to training camp with a new nose. Obvious in the off-season, Brady has had rhinoplasty and possible other cosmetic procedures including possible hair implants.  See above.

Weeeeeeeee.......

Summer 2010....See pic....'Nuff said------> 

November 2010...Uggs, an Australian company that makes furry women's boots, announces that Tom Brady will be their new US spokesperson. 

January 16, 2011....despite a 14-2 regular season record, Brady and Patriots lose to the Jets in a Divisional playoff game...Brady is sacked 5 times and tosses an interception. 

March 2011.....Brady attends Carnival in Rio and shows the world that he just can't dance.

September 25, 2011....Tom Brady is unable to beat a winning team during the regular season plus can't beat the lowly Bills where TB tosses 4 interceptions. 

January 20, 2012...Ginxele and Tommy move into a $20mm mansion in Brentwood (L.A.). TB is criticized by environmentalist because of the footprint of the 20,000 sq ft monstrosity but more importantly he is criticized by dudes worldwide because no grill can be seen in the numerous photos of the crib plus its understood the home doesn't contain a single copy of "Scarface". 

January 22, 2012....Tom Brady beats the Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC Championship game but admits "I sucked pretty bad tonight" and rightly attributes the win to the maligned New England D. 


February 5, 2012....Losses to the NY Giants in Super Bowl XVVI 21-17....Brady blames loss on his teammates....Ginxele is quoted as saying "You've to catch the ball when you're supposed to catch the ball. My husband cannot fucking throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can't believe they dropped the ball so many times" Ginxele refers to a play where Wes Welker cannot catch a poorly thrown ball - unknowing that it would have taken the most spectacular snag in NFL history to corral it in. Brady is 2 for 7 and allowed himself to be sacked in the Pats final possession. Also TB throws a 4th quarter interception. 

U Mad Bro?

October 14, 2012....New England is up 20-10 in the 3rd quarter of a game in Seattle vs the Seahawks - Brady taunts Seattle defensive backs and asks them to meet him after the game after the Patriots win.  Brady subsequently throws 2 picks and the Pats lose 24-23.  Seattle Seahawks CB Richard Sherman holds up his side of the bargain and meets Brady after the game and famously asks Brady "U Mad Bro?"

January 20, 2013.....After an up and down season of starting season 3-3 including a loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals....in the AFC Championship game, Brady throws 2 picks in the 4th quarter eliminating any chance for the Pats to make it to the Super Bowl. 

Brady speeding around with his infant daughter

Summer 2013....New England receivers drop like flies...TE Aaron Hernandez is arrested for murdering at least one person...RB Danny Woodhead and WR Wes Welker are spurned by Pats management....TE Rob Gronkowski addled by shoulder and knee injuries...WR Brandon Lloyd gets cut.....Brady lets his displeasure known but burns off the stress by riding around on an ATV with his infant daughter

January 19, 2014....New England plays Brady's arch-nemises Peyton Manning in the AFC Championship game. Pats are lucky to even be there.  

TB realizes the Ginx is true. 

Patriots season includes squeaking by the Cleveland Browns (4-12) and the Houston Texans (2-14) also the NY Jets in a down season beat the Pats and play them to within 3 points at Gillette.   In the game in Denver, Brady was quite ordinary and his off-touch was apparent in his over-throw (the hand of Ginxele) to Edelman which could have closed the gap vs the Broncos. 

June 13, 2014....Gisele is seen in the arm of former Spain soccer star Carles Puyol during the World Cup in Rio.  Brady goes awol after being miffed by being left off the FIFA VIP list that includes Daniel Craig, LeBron James and Ashton Kutcher.   Tommy, you ain't James Bond nor LeBron....but getting passed over by the guy from Dude, Where's My Car? - you should read as a sign of things to come.
 

Brady senses the end is near

September 29, 2014....After losing to Miami and struggling against the woeful Raiders...it is a Monday Night Football game against Kansas City that acts as a preview for Brady's future....Patriots lose 41-14....Brady throws a pick-6 and then is quickly replaced by rookie Garappolo -  who orchestrates an 81 drive for a touchdown in their next possession.  Boston headline's scream that its the end of the Brady era .

October 16, 2014...The Patriots get help from a referee who moved the Patriots Dont'a Hightower out of an illegal alignment which would have resulted in a 5 yard penalty - instead the Jets are forced to kick a 58 yard field goal that the Patriots block.  In the game Brady after being barely touched by the Jets player takes a dive that would make Gisele's beloved Brazilian soccer team proud.  

Brady's epic flop

January 18, 2015...After the Patriots seal a place in Super Bowl XLIX - they are socked with more controversy as it is discovered that 11 of the 12 balls that the Patriots used during the game were discovered to be deflated by 2psi.   Brady is the focus of the investigation as he had previously publicly stated that he likes deflated balls.  The great Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has probably the best indictment on Brady's manhood "There is, if you...have...smaller hands, an advantage to having a flat football" Small hands means small....you and Gisele know the rest.

January 22, 2015...Deflategate causes Brady to fully unravel. In a press conference, Bill Belichick throws Brady under the bus by denying any wrongdoing himself but pointing the press to Brady..."Tom's personal preferences...are something he can talk about in much detail"....Later in the day, Brady holds a press conference where Brady denying culpability and states "I didn't alter the ball in any way" begging the question on if he directed someone to alter the ball. Overall anyone watching the press conference agrees that Brady is lying and trust in him takes a a huge blow.

February 1, 2015....
The Patriots win Super Bowl XLIX but the "victory" is tainted. Not only tainted by the way the Patriots got to the Super Bowl but tainted by fact that the famous Malcolm Butler interception at the goal line is a result of Belichick chicanery. The Seahawks 2nd and goal from the 1yd line and with nearly unstoppable Marshawn Lynch in the backfield - the Patriots defeat is sealed. But Brady and Belichick have one last trick up their sleeves. The Patriots coaching staff appears to steal the Seahawks signals of the slant pass and frantically sent out an extra cornerback (Malcolm Butler) BEFORE Seattle broke the huddle (watch 3:30 to 3:40 in video). Butler already knows the play is coming as he has been tipped off so simply cuts to place where the short pass is designed to go and intercepts the ball. History will recognize this and this Super Bowl victory if not vacated will be asterisked.

January 24, 2016....
Peyton Manning seals a better career playoff record vs Tom Brady by winning the AFC Championship game. Brady is sacked 4 times, throws 2 picks, ends up game with a pitiful 56.4 passer rating.


February 2016
Gisele walks out on the sullen Brady - a kick in the teeth following the loss to Peyton Manning.

August 5, 2016
Brady is no where to be found as Gisele struts her stuff in front of millions of drooling fans
during the opening ceremonies of the Olympic games in Rio.  

September 2016
While Brady is serving his suspension for Deflategate, the Patriots go undefeated.   Belichick to show how much the Patriots actually don't need Brady - trots out a rookie 3rd string QB in a total dismantling and shut-out of what was expected to be a playoff-bound Houston Texans.    Brady is so humiliated and jealous of Jimmy Garappolo that he jets off to Italy and is rumored to contemplate not returning to the US or play football again.

January 2017
Bill Belichick a la Nixon at the Watergate is suspected of using a bungling operative to pull the fire alarm at the Pittsburgh Steelers team hotel at 3am which is a tactic that is a Belichick standby.  Tom Brady gets the benefit of bad officiating to clinch another tainted chance to win the Super Bowl. 

February 2017....

Brady has a horrific first half of Super Bowl LI - pick 6, overthrowing receivers, looking scared in the pocket.  Despite Brady's shaky play, Patriots win the Super Bowl and Brady is jealously miffed as victory is  attributed to Dont'a Hightower.

Summer 2017....Some vaguely or less vaguely think there is more to #TB12's longevity than avocado toast.   Many are suspicious of Alex Guerrero - who Brady calls his "body coach" who has been twice sued for fraud and fined by the Federal Trade Commission. 

December 11, 2017....

Score and stats don't lie as Brady gets completely outplayed by Jay Cutler in a humiliating loss to the lowly Miami Dolphins


December 31, 2017....TB12 perhaps trolls Jets fans for the very last time as it seems he is completely unraveling.

January 5, 2018

Check out the comments

ESPN publishes a true view behind the curtain at the Patriots. The article the true picture of Tom Brady seething with jealousy over Jimmy Garappolo and forcing Belichick to trade the heir-apparent for peanuts.  Also becomes apparent that Belichick as well as the Harvard educated Patriots medical staff is suspect of Brady's 'body coach' and bans him the sidelines and team plane.

January 21, 2018... Gisele appears to give Brady an ultimatum "1 last game only"

February 4, 2018... Brady blows a 33-32 lead in the 4th quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII .  Brady seals fate by fumbling away the ball and the game with 2:16 left.  Losing yet another Super Bowl where the Patriots were favored.

September 9, 2018...New England starts the 2018 season without Julian Edelman who is serving a 4 game PED suspension who spends much of his workouts at TB12 Center.  Begs the question on what supplements Alex Guerrero is giving to Edelman and TB12. 

September 23, 2018....Patriots lose to the same team (Detroit Lions) that the NY Jets had earlier thrashed 48-17 in the season.   Capping a 2 game losing streak.  Brady is atrocious in passing for only 133 yards.  The week earlier Brady is outplayed by Blake Bortles, yes, Blake Bortles in a loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Election Day, 2018....TB12 has no political weight - TB12 endorses Helen Brady (no relation) in the Massachusetts State Auditor election who subsequently gets thumped by candidate Suzanne Bump.   Giselle then tells TB12 not to discuss politics anymore. 

January 20, 2019....In AFC Championship game vs the Chiefs, Brady gets the benefit of a horrible roughing the passer call where defensive lineman Chris Jones brushes TB12's shoulder pad.  Pats end up winning due to that awful call.

January 27, 2019.... Even die-hards Pats fans at a pep rally for the Patriots are embarrassed by Brady's attempt to get a "We're Still Here' Chant started - only to see it fail like a lead balloon. 

Enough already...

So we can rest our case for now....the mishaps and misfortunes (and deflated balls) pile up as it appears that Tom Brady's career arc while being with Gisele has taken a similar stride as another cosmetic surgery junkie, Michael Jackson.  A meteoric rise followed by a slow decline into mediocrity.  At 41 years old, Brady's career is where Jacko's was when he released the HIStory album -- a dud.   The all too-short suspension over Deflategate had given him more time to think about his life at rock-bottom and perhaps his usefulness has come to an end but for now we know the truth around Tom Brady and his cheating and lying ways perhaps driven by the jinxing Gisele. 

2016 Kentucky Derby - The Locks

Before we focus in on the Derby Lock lets figure out how we look at and bet the Derby - the Locks looks for horses that fit the historic Locks Winning Pattern: those that can win, those that can run fast and those that conform to history. Winners, Runners and Conformers make the Locks Derby Winning Pattern....

Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible that have at least 3 wins. Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race. Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books

Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).
In this year field, Tom’s Ready, My Man Sam, Majesto only have 1 won and there is a maiden, Trojan Nation.

Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.
Recent data shows the following results:
Since 1993, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7+ lengths off the pace, 3/4m - 6 lengths, 1mile - 2 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 2 wire-to-wire winners and 1 other horse that was less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.

Conformers
I enjoy history and any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that I was a half a semester shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. I recently tried to parlay my accumulation of useless knowledge into a spot on Jeopardy! but the test I took had no less than 3 references to Russian history....the subject of the same class that tripped me up in completing my history minor. Albeit I thought by making vodka drinks that I -- by osmosis -- would learn about Russia -- surprisingly it didn’t work and I was asked to drop the class. That said....I do

like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 140 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:

• -  Since 1991 (Historical Reference: Boris Yelstin is ruling in the Kremlin), there have been no winners of the Kentucky Derby with a sire who had produced another Kentucky Derby winner. Trojan Nation (Street Cry) is the only horse in field whose sire has also sired another Kentucky Derby winner (Street Sense). Actually pedigrees are concentrated this year, there are 4 whose sire or grandsire is Tapit, 3 whose sire or grandsire is Giant’s Causeway and 3 sired by Uncle Mo whose first crop are 3yos.
  
• -  Since 1966 (Historical Reference: England wins the World Cup), only 2 winners (Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus) of the Kentucky Derby have only a single race as a 2yo. Outwork, Shagaf, and My Man Sam are those in this years field with only 1 start as a juvenile.
  
• -  Since 1937 (Historical Reference: Average price of a new car is $760 ), only 9 maidens have raced in the Kentucky Derby and the best finish of these maidens are an 8th place in 1958. This year only Trojan Nation is a maiden.
  
• -  The average number of starts before the Derby by the Derby winner has consistently grown smaller over the years in the 1970s it was 13.6 starts, in the 1980s it was 9.3 starts, in the 90s it was 9 starts, from the period from 2000 to 2015, it was 5.8.
  
• -  Since 1980 (Historical Reference: AC/DC release Back in Black), horses coming out of some of the Southern California Derby prep races actually have proven to be more successful than some East Coast preps. Of the major prep races, of all Santa Anita Derby starters who also raced in the Kentucky Derby 24% of them finished in the Top 3 in the Derby with 65% of them finishing in the top half of the Derby field. Compare that with the Wood or the Blue Grass who shared similar stats, 18% Top 3/50% Top half.
  
• -  I can always admit when I’m wrong I always thought that the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a 2-turn race at Churchill Down for 2yos, and the Remsen Stakes, a 9 furlong race at Aqueduct for 2yos, were good predicative races for the Derby but stats have proven me wrong. Of those that started in either of those races and also started in the Derby only 16% have come in the Top 3 of the Derby and only 49% have finished in the top half of the Derby field. But take the Frontrunner Stakes a 8.5 furlong race at Santa Anita for 2yos run every September, horses that have run in that prep and also run in the Derby have hit the top 3 at a clip of 29% additionally of that same universe 71% have come in the top half of the Derby field. Gun Runner, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Tom’s Ready, Mo Tom come in from either Ky JC or the Remsen. Nyqvist comes in from FrontRunner.
  
• -  Despite Californina-bred, California Chrome winning the Derby last year, 75% of Kentucky Derby winners have been Kentucky-breds. This year only Mor Spirit and Tom’s Ready are both the only non-KY breds and are both PA-bred. Last PA-bred to win, Smarty Jones in 2004.
  
• -  Since 1993, only the very unlikely Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register at least a 90 Beyer speed figure before the Derby. This year, Oscar Nominated, Shagaf, Tom’s Ready, Majesto, and Mo Tom also have yet achieved a 90 Beyer.
  - Since 1940, there has been only one Derby entrant who raced in Japan, Ski Captain in 1995 who finished 14th, Lani comes into the Derby after racing in Japan and then going to Dubai and winning the UAE Derby.
  

- In the last 19 years, only long-shots Charismatic and Giacomo won the Derby with a sub-100 last race CSI. The average last-race CSI for the past 19 not taking in the sub-100 CSI performers has been 105.
Unfortunately the Locks missed on American Pharoah last year with the following assessment.

May be the Derby favorite.. Based on similarities, American Pharoah may also be called Bodemeister II -- both owned by Zayat, trained by Baffert, both impressively won the Arkansas Derby Bodemeister went on - as the Derby favorite - to click off incredibly fast fractions (:45.1, 1:09.1, 1:35) only to run out of gas in the last 1/8th mile and finish 2nd. But actually looking a little bit closer it seems American Pharaoh isn’t quite as good as Bodemeister was coming into the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister’s speed figs in the Derby preps were a click faster - Bode was able to finish the Arkansas Derby in a better time and stronger energy - Bode’s pedigree suggested more stamina. Also consider American Pharaoh’s time in the Arkansas Derby also didn’t hold up well against the time lodged by older handicap horses in the Oaklawn Handicap raced in the same conditions - AP was more than .5 second slower and also closing furlong time didn’t hold up. American Pharaoh already is a champion but the 2yo champion since 1978 has only won the Derby once (Street Sense). However, the biggest detractor at low odds on AP may be the colt’s running style of wanting to be on the lead - setting the pace has only proven effective for a Derby winner in races where it could be easily predicted that the speed would hold up.

The Locks looks to make amends with the line up.

The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line
☆☆☆☆☆	Mohaymen	Nyquist
☆☆☆☆	My Man Sam  Nyquist Destin	Exaggerator  Mohaymen  Gun Runner  Creator
☆☆☆	Brody’s Cause  Tom’s Ready  Exaggerator  Lani Gun Runner  Outwork  Creator Mor Spirit Whitmore Suddenbreakingnews	Mor Spirit Brody’s Cause  Danzing Candy  Outwork Destin  Suddenbreakingnews Mo Tom My Man Sam  Whitmore Shagaf
☆☆	Mo Tom  Majesto-  Danzing- Candy  Shagaf- Oscar Nominated	Majesto-  Lani Tom’s Ready

☆	Trojan Nation	Oscar Nominated           Trojan Nation

1 Trojan Nation
Pedigree: Street Cry-Storm Song (Summer Squall) Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
Jockey: Aaron Gryder
Record: 6:0.1.3
Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-96-91
Interesting that 2 UCLA grads own a horse named Trojan Nation. The Locks’ Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick1
The Lock’s Rating: ☆

2 Suddenbreakingnews
Pedigree: Mineshaft-Uchitel (Afleet Alex) Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Luis Quinonez
Record: 8:3.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-107
1 If this one wins on my next airline flight the Locks will wear a pink Tom Brady women’s size medium jersey. Mine That Bird was the only former Pink Tom Brady Jersey pick that has painfully won the Derby.

Dam of this horse is named after Tiger Wood’s mistress - perhaps Elin Nordegren hoped Tiger had something in common as this one. Suddenbreakingnews is trying to buck history in being only the 3rd gelding to win the Kentucky Derby since 1929.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

3 Creator
Pedigree: Tapit-Morena (Privately Held) Trainer:Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
Record: 8:2.4.1
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 102-103-100
Oft a bridesmaid - 4 2nds — but could pick up a piece The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

4 Mo Tom
Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Caroni (Rubiano) Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Jockey: Corie Lanerie
Record: 7:3.0.3
Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-99-103
Tom Benson, owner of Mo Tom as well as owner of the New Orleans Saints and New Orleans Pelicans is quite cocky with his silks selection - 3 crowns aka Triple Crowns. Winner at Churchill Downs going 2 turns only Brody’s Cause can also boast that accomplishment.

The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆

5 Gun Runner
Pedigree: Candy Ride-Quiet Giant (Giant’s Causeway) Trainer: Steven Assmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 5:4.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-101-101
Amazingly the last winner of the Kentucky Derby who won their maiden at Churchill Downs was Brokers Tip in 1933, so Gun Runner who won its debut at CD will have to buck history.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

6 My Man Sam
Pedigree: Trappe Shot-Lauren Byrd (Arch) Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Record: 4:1.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 94-110-104

A colt that has only 4 races but improving each time. Will be running late to get a piece. Sports highest CSI in the field.

The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆

7 Oscar Nominated
Pedigree: Kitten’s Joy - Devine Actress (Theatrical) Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Julien Leparourx
Record: 7:3.2.0
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 109-103-95
The US’s top owner in terms of purses won claimed this one in a maiden claiming race - only long shots Mine that Bird and Charismatic ran for a tag in their maiden win.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆

8 Lani
Pedigree: Tapit-Heavenly Romance (Sunday Silence) Trainer: Mikko Matsunaga
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Record: 6:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: xx-xx-xx
Kentucky-bred, Japan trained and raced, UAE Derby winner in Dubai will be only the 2nd Kentucky Derby runner that has raced in Japan, Ski Captain 14th in 1995 is the other runner. Although Lani has raced and won at a distance longer than any other runner, this Tapit colt’s final time extrapolated out would be several lengths off in the Dubai World Cup.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

9 Destin
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 106-104-98
Only horse in field to yet race at longer than 8.5 furlongs but also is one of only 2 in the field that have a last race triple digit Beyer speed fig. Full brother to Creative Cause who was the Locks 2nd pick in the 2012 Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆

10 Whitmore
Pedigree:Pleasantly Perfect-Melody’s Spirit (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey:Victor Espinoza
Record: 6:2.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-104
Gets Triple Crown winning Victor Espinoza but only wins are going 6 furlongs. Named after high school teammate of trainer Ron Moquett, Wilbur Whitmore.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

11 Exaggerator
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Record: 9:4.2.1
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-103-107
Would have been the Lock if the track was to be wet but it it will be a fast track - been beat by others in the field that are going off at higher prices.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

12 Tom’s Ready
Pedigree:More Than Ready-Goodbye Stranger (Broad Brush) Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: 30-1
Record:9:1.4.0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-87-101
Another Tom Benson entry but trained by Dallas Stewart who is known for 80s hair style as well as getting unlikely horses in the top 3 of the Derby (Golden Soul in 2013, Commanding Curve in 2014).
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

13 Nyquist
Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry) Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Record: 7:7.0.0
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-109-94
Not much to knock here — 7 for 7, good speed figs, winner of BC Juvenile. But at the price, can’t get away of the fact that Nyqvist, named after hockey player. Gustav Nyquist, drifted badly in the stretch (sign of tiring) in the Florida Derby.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆

14 Mohaymen
Pedigree: Tapit-Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Record: 6:5.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 93-105-109
Liked this colt since its Remsen win last November. Can be this years version of Thunder
Gulch who was completely dismissed in the Derby after a 4th place finish and won at 25-1 odds. If take away the Florida Derby which was run on a sticky track surface has not done anything wrong. Good works at Churchill Dwns.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆

15 Outwork
Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Nonna Mia (Empire Maker) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey:John Velazquez
Record: 4:3.1.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 99-105-104
Has been working great at CD but running style will do this one in. 
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

16 Shagaf
Pedigree: Bernadini-Muhaawara (Unbridled’s Song) Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 4:3.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-102-103
Gotham winner - but shows tiring form. 
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆

17 Mor Spirit
Pedigree: Eskendereya-Im a Dixie Girl (Dixie Union) Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 7:3.4.0
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 95-104-97
Hasn't done much wrong in career. Can Baffert catch lightening in the bottle again. 
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

18 Majesto
Pedigree: Tiznow-Unacloud (Unaccounted For) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (who??)
Record: 6:1.2.2
Morning Line Odds:
Last 3 Race CSIs: 98-99-88
Took 5 times to break maiden - 
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆

19 Brody’s Cause
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway-Sweet Breanna (Sahm) Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record:6:3.0.1
Morning Line Odds: 12-1 Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-93-91

Flattered by Oaks winner. 
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆☆

20 Danzing Candy
Pedigree: Twirling Candy-Talking and Singing (Songandaprayer) Trainer: Clifford Sise
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 5:3.0.0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 88-106-112
The likely pace setter will have to shoot out of the 20 hole and across the track to get in that position - with stamina limitations already doesn’t bode well for this one.
The Lock’s Rating: ☆☆ The Locks wagers:

$1 exacta #14 over all = $1 x 19 = $19 
$1 exacta all over #14 = $1 x 19 = $19 
$1 exacta box #14, #13, #9, #6 = $12 
$1 trifecta #14, #13, #9, #6 = $24
$1 exacta #12,#13,#14 = $6
$4 WP #6 = $6
Total = $86
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