I am writing this as I am on a plane heading to LA (certainly not going out there to attend a Clippers game - think Snoop Dogg's tweet and instagram on the Donald Sterling issue says it all - albeit not so family friendly). While I am out in LA - with the amount of drama found in this year's Kentucky Derby - I can probably use the Locks as a treatment and bring it to any studio and get a development deal. This year's Derby although shorter on talent than other editions - does have heroes and villains - the rich and powerful and little guy fighting against the odds - feel good stories and more than a few sentimental favorites - there is Hollywood's leading man (Bob Baffert) taking the back seat to a diminutive curmudgeon (Art Sherman). Before we let the stories unfold - let's see how we can make a few dollars to fund such a movie.
To find and bet on a winner- the Locks looks for horses that fit the historic Locks Winning Pattern: those that can win, those that can run fast and those that conform to history. Winners, Runners and Conformers
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible that have at least 3 wins.
Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that has come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).
This years runners with only 1 win are: Commanding Curve and Uncle Sigh.

Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the father of pace handicapping - the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits. The relatively new "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system in determining the Derby field has eliminated confirmed sprinters from entering the Derby and it was thought to change the pace scenarios in the future. Although there are no sprinters that will hop up the pace - the Locks sees there will be pace pressure - at least 8 horses may want to be on or near the pace - Samraat, Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Chitu, Vicar's In Trouble, Uncle Sigh, Harry's Holiday and California Chrome - with all those horses wanting to be at the same place at the same time it perhaps could push a quicker pace.
So in looking for a winner, I’ve looked at horses that have some versatility and shown the ability to come of the pace and that are still running fast at the end.
Conformers
I value history and readers of the Locks each year are reminded that the Locks was only 1 class shy of being a History minor at Georgetown but tripped by the fact that I had taken to studying Russian history - Big Lebowski-style -- by drinking White Russians - made from a cocktail of Yoo-Hoo and Cossack vodka. But even without actual qualifications as a historian I do like to look at chronological records of the Derby when betting as there is 139 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
- Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last 17 years have been quite telling only 3 horses with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 CSI. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a last race CSI of 105.85. This year 8 horses in the 20 horse field have sub-100 CSIs.
- In the same 17 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in the final two prep races. This year only California Chrome, Vicar's In Trouble, Wicked Strong, Danza, Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, Wildcat Red, General A Rod have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races.
- Since 1955 only 1 horse (Iron Leige in 1957, Historical reference: Lions defeat the Browns in the NFL Championship - odds for these teams to meet in Super Bowl XLIX - 1000-1) finished 5th or worse in its final prep before the Derby and went on to win the Derby. Only has real clunker last race finish.
- On the same vein, last time a horse finished 3rd in its final prep before the Derby and then won was Unbridled’s victory in 1990 (historical reference: Vanilla Ice's "Ice Ice Baby" is rocking the Billboard charts). General A Rod, Candy Boy, and Commanding Curve all came in 3rd in last race.
- Since 1990, out of 72 horses that have hit the board in the Derby only 7 have done so after last racing in a state other than NY, California, Kentucky, Louisiana or Arkansas. This year Chitu (NM), General A Rod (FL) and Wildcat Red(FL) don't fit the mold.
- Since 1993, only Funny Cide (NY) in 2003, Silver Charm (FL) in 1997, Smarty Jones (PA) in 2004, had won the Derby despite not being a Kentucky -bred....this year California Chrome (California), Vicar's in Trouble (Louisiana), Uncle Sigh (NY), Samraat (NY), Dance with Fate (Florida), Wildcat Red (Florida), and We Miss Artie (Ontario) were not bred in Kentucky.
- No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a 2yo. (Historical reference: PT Barnum buys Jumbo from the London zoo). Hoppertunity is unraced as a 2yo.
- Only 4 horses since 1900 (historical reference: Freud publishes his Interpretation of Dreams), have won after being sprung from gates 17-20.
- Since 1980, only Giacomo in 2005 had raced exclusively in one state and won the Derby. California Chrome (CA), Candy Boy (CA), Wildcat Red (FL), Uncle Sigh (NY) and Samraat (NY) have raced exclusively in one state.
The Locks Rating
|
The Locks
|
Morning Line Odds
|
☆☆☆☆☆
| Danza | California Chrome |
| ☆☆☆☆ | California Chrome Dance with Fate Medal Count |
Wicked Strong
Danza Intense Holiday |
☆☆☆
|
Chitu
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve
SamraatRide On Curlin
Vicar's in Trouble
Uncle Sigh
General A Rod
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
|
Samraat
General A Rod Wildcat Red Tapiture Ride on Curlin Dance with Fate Medal Count Candy Boy Chitu |
☆☆
|
Tapiture
Vinceremos Candy Boy |
Vicar's In Trouble
Uncle Sigh Vinceremos |
☆
|
We Miss Artie
Harry's Holiday |
We Miss Artie
Harry's Holiday Commanding Curve |
1 Vicar's in Trouble
Pedigree: Into Mischief - Vibrant (Vicar)
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Record: 5-3-0-2
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-101-100
Here is a very talented colt - 3 wins in 5 tries - wins were by a total 24 lengths - won the Louisiana Derby - a race that gave us last years - 2nd, 3rd and 5th place finishers in the Kentucky Derby. Very difficult to read the influence of the Louisiana Derby as a prep this year…..Brisnet speed figs would put the Louisiana Derby winner on par with Danza’s Arkansas Derby, Wicked Strong’s Wood Memorial, Chitu’s Sunland Derby and a shade slower than California Chrome’s Santa Anita Derby while Beyers and C Speed Index would put the Louisiana Derby about 3 lengths slower than those races. Last year if you unfortunately ignored the Brisnet speed figs and based decisions on Beyers you may have missed out on putting Golden Soul and Revolutionary in your trifectas……but I am in a quandary - the Louisiana Derby was an extrapolated 1 second slower than the Fair Grounds Oaks and almost 2 seconds slower than the handicap horses that ran that day. I am taking the view that the Louisiana Derby was a slower race with slower horses…regardless - in weighing Vicar’s In Trouble’s Derby chances I feel the colt’s running style will not help - there will be too many horses wanting to be on the pace and although 1 or 2 of them may still be there in the end - it does’t look like it will be this colt especially springing from the 1 hole - that we will see win races at 8 or 9 furlongs.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Harlan's Holiday - Daisy Mason(Orientate)
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Record: 8-3-2-1
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 78-104-89
There were 424 horses that were Triple Crown nominated — the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system was well known to owners and trainers to get into the gate at Churchill Downs -- somehow this colt managed to accumulate enough points as well as tie-breaking earnings to earn its way into the Derby — are there better horses that are going to be sitting on the sidelines for the Derby? certainly! - Bayern, Social Inclusion, Kid Cruz to name a few. That being said this colt has not raced on dirt since January when he put in a clunker at Tampa Bay Downs and the colt also will have difficulty sustaining any pace beyond the far turn and will fade down the stretch. This is the Locks 2014 Pink Tom Brady Jersey Challenge pick - if the horse wins on my next airline flight I will wear a women’s size medium pink Tom Brady jersey.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆
Pedigree: Indian Charlie - Cradlesong (Pine Bluff)
Trainer: Gary Contessa
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record: 5-1-3-0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 100-105-103
With 2 NY breds in the Kentucky Derby field this year - its a good year for horses bred in the Empire State and that trend may continue as New York has created more incentives for breeders and has increased purses for restricted state-bred races - as a result the market is seeing increasing demand for NY breds as seen in jumps in auction prices for NY-bred weanlings and yearlings - better mares and better sires are now taking up stalls in the state. Most of this is driven by NY putting revenues from the Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct into the Thoroughbred industry. Only 8 other NY breds have run in the long history of the Derby with Funny Cide being the lone Derby NY-bred winner. With all this positive news, however, Uncle Sigh is unlikely to follow in Funny Cide’s footsteps to the winner’s circle…Uncle Sigh got off a beat slow in the Wood and ultimately didn’t factor in the race showing that the colt needs to race near the lead. This running style however may be its undoing as it does look like this year there will several horses that also want to race up-front. Compound this with Uncle Sigh's Indian Charlie breeding (ideally creating runners going 7 to 8.5 furlongs) - we are looking at Uncle Sigh fading down the stretch. But owner Chip McEwan should be commended as he races with silks with a purple heart raising awareness of the Wounded Warrior Project among other veterans charities.
Pedigree: Street Boss - Champagne Royale (French Deputy)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joey Bravo
Record: 4-2-0-2
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 103-96-102
This cleverly named Street Boss colt was named after “Who’s the Boss?” star Tony Danza. Lets apply the same logic as used in the the naming convention of this colt to the other Derby contenders to see what names we’d get….
Uncle Sigh—>Baio (Indian Charlie: sire—>Charles in Charge—>Scott Baio)
Wicked Strong—>Fox (Hard Spun: sire —> Spin City—>Michael J. Fox)
Hoppertunity—>Belushi (Any Given Saturday:sire —> Saturday Night Live —> John Belushi).
Ride on Curlin—>Costas (Curlin: sire—>Curling as in something you only see in the Olympics—>Bob Costas)
California Chrome —>Urich (Lucky Pulpit: sire—> Vega$ as in you need to be lucky in Vegas—>Robert Urich) - indeed a stretch.
But it is not going to be a stretch to see this colt win this year’s Kentucky Derby. Some may point to Danza’s sire, Street Boss as a sprinter so distance may be a limitation but Danza’s dam has been stamping out stamina horses - including winners at 11 and 12 furlongs. With liking Danza perhaps I am relying too much on a single race - the Arkansas Derby. But perhaps the Arkansas Derby was not a fluke - the colt did show its talent early on. Despite being an April foal (on the later half of when horses are born) - Pletcher got Danza to the races in July of his 2yo year which Danza won at first asking at Belmont then went to Saratoga to run in the G2 Saratoga Special in which Danza gobbled up almost 6 lengths in the stretch to almost gain victory. Danza then was put on the shelf and then came back in a 7 furlong race at Gulfstream Park - perhaps Pletcher aim was to get the colt to stretch his legs in his return. Danza’s Arkansas Derby was impressive. Admittedly - the colt got some racing luck and very good trip and was able to slip through on the inside without taking an overland route to pass horses but won by 4+ widening lengths versus what could have been the toughest field of the all the major Derby preps. This prep included Ride On Curlin and Tapiture who are live horses in the field, Bayern (who Baffert was hoping to get in the Derby field and just finished 1st (but DQd to 2nd) in the Derby Trial), Conquest Titan ( a stakes winner and 2nd in the Holy Bull), Commissioner ( a horse that Pletcher thought could have been his Derby horse after 2- 9 furlong wins), Strong Mandate (a colt that D Wayne Lukas aka the Foster Grant Kid will point to the Preakness). What also impressed me of Danza’s Arkansas Derby was Danza’s final time and last furlong split time compared to top handicap horses Will Take Charge and Revolutionary ran in the Oaklawn Handicap the race before the Arkansas Derby - Danza ran a shade slower overall time but the last furlong was almost 2/10th faster. Danza’s 1:49.68/12.30 vs Will Take Charge’s 1:49.55/12.68. Remember at this stage - older handicap horses should be stronger and faster than 3 year olds. Danza’s speed figs C-Index, Beyer, Brisnet (103, 102 ,104) vs California Chrome’s Santa Anita Derby (105, 107,106) are within range to challenge but then also consider that Danza’s running style of coming off the pace will potentially bode well compared to California Chrome’s who will be in the first or near the first flight of horses. So Danza is the Locks pick - yes - California Chrome may be more likely to win but getting 10-1 on Danza is worth it in comparing those probabilities vs CC’s 5-2.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆☆☆
Pedigree: Lucky Pulpit - Love the Chase (Not for Love)
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Record: 10-6-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 5-2
Last 3 Race CSIs: 105-99-100
California Chrome should go off at odds between 2-1 and 3-1 which actually may not bode very well for this surely talented colt. Since 1990, 9 times have the Derby favorite has had odds less than 3-1 and only Big Brown and Fusiachi Pegasus delivered on their promise. But California Chrome is to be respected...coming in with a streak of 4 wins in a row and averaging nearly a 6 length margin of victory in those races. But CC has a profile that is completely atypical of a top Derby contender - a) breeding: out of a $8,000 mare, a California-bred hasn't won since 1962 and there has been only one other Lucky Pulpit to race in the Derby, Rousing Sermon which the Locks compared to being the Caddyshack 2 of horse racing. b) trainer: at 77yo and 5'2" Art Sherman maintains a 15 horse barn, trains at a quarter-horse track, Los Alamitos, has only been to the Derby when he was a teenaged exercise rider. c) prep races: although romped vs open company in the Santa Anita and the San Felipe - other prep races include the King Glorious, Cal Cup Derby. CC has tactical speed which means will want to be near the lead but can control and rate just off the lead - if the pace is a fast one - CC has the ability to rate but the faster the pace...the more likelihood a horse coming further off the pace will win. Will certainly need CC in mixes but doesn't appear to be a horse to key especially at odds of 5/2.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆☆
6 Samraat
Pedigree: Noble Causeway - Little Indian Girl (Indian Charlie)
Trainer: Richard Violette
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 6-5-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 104-105-104
Like California Chrome - the California-bred that has only raced in California and Wildcat Red the Florida-bred that has only raced in Florida, Samraat, a NY bred has only raced in New York. After beating up on NY-breds pretty good - going 3 for 3 with an average win margin of 8.5 lengths - Samraat hooked up with other NY-bred Uncle Sigh in the Withers and Gotham with Samraat getting the best of intra-state rival. Samraat then went into the Wood Memorial with a perfect 5 for 5 record - chased freaky fast Social Inclusion - only to see Wicked Strong zip past them in the final 1/16th of mile. But with a 5 wins 1 place record on 6 starts - has the best winning % in the field and only horse other than California Chrome to have more than 4 wins. From a speed figure stand point - Samraat has been incredibly consistent - with last 3 race C-Index 104-105-104; Beyer 98-96-94; Brisnet 99-99-99. Like several other horses in the field - Samraat may be too keen to want the lead to be able to extend his speed for the full 10 furlongs. Samraat - named after a Bollywood movie - may also be running against some history - the Gotham Stakes has been won by the likes of Easy Goer, Lure, Jaipur, Dr Fager, Red Bullet -- only Secretariat has gone on to complete the Gotham-Kentucky Derby double. Also only Funny Cide has won the Derby as a NY-bred. But maybe owner and bookseller Len Riggio can write chapter 2 in the history book.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Artie Schiller - Athena's Gift (Fusiachi Pegasus)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 8-3-2-0
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 104-87-102
Out of the sire Artie Schiller who was the winner of the BC Mile - owned by William Entenmann…many of you from the south shore of Long Island may recognize the name Artie Schiller as the nom de bar of the Southside Hotel in Bay Shore. On my list as one of the top bars in the world with the rotisserie hot dogs, great juke box, and a bar sized pool table….the bar has undergone renovation over the years but still a place I find myself drawn to. We Miss Artie would be a great play if the Kentucky Derby was run on turf but its run on sandy loam and a clay base thus compromising this colts chances. In last 5 races….ran 2x on dirt — 7th and 8th place finish - in last 3 turf or synthetic surface - 1st,2nd,1st. Johnny V moves off this horse to ride Intense Holiday. Question is with an entry in the race already - why are the Ramseys going to run this one in the race? We Miss Artie is Canadian-bred but certainly we aren’t ready to call this colt the Great One.
Speaking of the Great One - Wayne Gretsky - I am thinking perhaps his ‘greatness’ is a bit over-inflated - yes, he’s racked up stats that go off the charts but in measuring “greatness” in sports don’t you look to championships….Jordan is great because of his 6 rings, Kobe has 5 and Shaq has 4….no one was ready to put LeBron in the pantheon of “greatness” until he won a championship - each of them also have at least one Olympic gold medal….now Gretsky did help hoist 4 Stanley Cups with Edmonton but he did so with the likes of Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Paul Coffey, Grant Fuhr, Esa Tikkanen but once Gretsky took his flowing locks to LA - he would not win another Stanley Cup. Mark Messier on the other hand would lead Edmonton to another championship and then would go on to raise the Cup for the NY Rangers. Not only is limited in NHL championships Gretsky also is without an Olympic medal of any color. So should we really be calling him the OK One...the So-So One….the Lots-of-Stats-But-Not-So-Much-With-The-Rings One??
The Lock's Verdict: ☆
Pedigree: Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes (Dynaformer)
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 5-2-2-1
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 101-105-104
Unlike the other A Rod (Alex Rodriguez), this Roman Ruler colt has enjoyed his winter in Florida putting $240,000 in owner’s Armando Rodriquez (this colt’s namesake) pocket with a win, a 2nd, and a 3rd in Gulfstream Park stakes races. Never out of the money in 5 races and with a decent 2nd in a race going 1 mile on the CD oval also popped a sub 1:00 5 furlong work at CD. Michael Maker trains and Joel Rosario rides so a lot to like here but despite stamina breeding from the mare - it appears that the distance compounded with a running style that will keep the colt close to the pace may spell a fading star (a la A Rod) in the last couple of furlongs.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Speaking of less than effective Yankees - isn’t the rest of the world that don’t see the world through pin-striped glasses - a bit tired of these aging Yankee farewell tours?? A few people can argue that Mariano Rivera perhaps was one of the better closers in baseball and might have deserved to be presented a couple of rocking-chairs crafted from baseball bats during his last games around the league…..but it now seems that Derek Jeter is expecting the same homage…personally I don’t get it….Derek Jeter is the same guy if he came up in the Royals organization would have been back in his hometown in Michigan tending bar at the local Appleby's serving up special Jetes Jello shots by now…but Derek Jeter won the lottery and found himself in the Yankees organization and has rode the coattails of high-priced teammates and only had to put up good not great numbers each year(avg 16 HRs/78 RBIs/22 SBs) and only a mere 1 Rookie of the Year trophy but now- Yankee fans says he should be considered a Hall of Fame candidate and deserving tributes across the land in his last season.
Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile - Kettle's Sister (More than Ready)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.
Record: 5-2-2-0
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 78-104-106
Vinceremos the horse is named after the Vinceremos Therapeutic Riding Center, a non-profit organization in Florida that serves children and adults with developmental, physical, cognitive, psychological, and emotional disabilities in Palm Beach County through unique equine partnerships. Had a real clunker in the Bluegrass Stakes so really question if the colt should be in the race. Appears even in best form is still a few lengths behind the top horses. Not a bad horse but not cut out to win the Derby. Pass.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆
10 Wildcat Red
Pedigree: D'Wildcat - Racene (Miner's Mark)
Trainer: Jose Garaffalo
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 7-4-3-0
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 103-105-103
If the Kentucky Derby was going to be run for some crazy reason in southern Florida at Gulfstream Park - this Florida bred may be the Lock. 7 races - 4 wins 3 2nds - actually finished first 5 times but in a restricted state bred horse the colt bore out late and was dropped down to 2nd. The 2 misses were by a neck and a head. But there is a catch….Wildcat Red has not raced at any track but GP. GP has been a speed biased track and this a speed biased horse as such has been given a home track advantage. Translating success on to the CD oval is less certain - trainer Jose Garaffalo doesn’t show much success when shipping his horses to other tracks - he only gets shippers in the money at a very low 23% clip - top trainers aim for 50%.
11
Pedigree: Any Given Saturday - Refugee (Unaccounted For)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 5-2-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 6-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 100-105-100
Maybe Tupac and Biggie Smalls could have learned something from this on how to bridge East Coast and West Coast......One of the biggest questions in handicapping the Kentucky Derby is understanding how horses from the West Coast will do when coming East to run in the Derby. Usually East Coast horses end up facing up against each other in one venue or another whether it is at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Keeneland or the New York circuit - you can somewhat compare horses but in many years West Coast horses may only run on the West Coast and you cannot get a feel on how good they are compared to the East. In 2012 I paid for not having that knowledge as I didn't include I'll Have Another in my mix since I discounted the strength of the West Coast horses. Hoppertunity actually may be the West Coast/East Coast barometer. Hoppertunity did race twice on the Eastern half of the country....once in the Risen Star and then winning the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park beating Ride On Curlin and Tapiture in the process. Hoppertunity did then go back West only to run a distant in the Santa Anita to California Chrome. But Hoppertunity who was previously named Anyway U Way (seems like a better name) is still several lengths slower than California Chrome and perhaps some of the East Coast horses. The name Hoppertunity as I saw that party guy Mike Pegram owned had something to do with beer (hops) but it is a name of a family that is friends of Baffert's wife.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆☆
Pedigree: Two Step Salsa - Flirting with Fate (Saint Ballado)
Trainer: Pete Eruption
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Record: 8-3-3-0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 106-103-97
There are some definite things to like with DwF - the colt has 3 wins....has a late kick which bodes well with an expected up-tempo pace - came home in the Blue Grass in 12.2 - one of the fastest last 1/8th time in the field....also do note that DwF is the only horse in the field to out-finish California Chrome...a knock on the colt is that he is a synthetic surface specialist and reading the tea-leaves in that his trainer, former-jockey, Peter Eurton, didn't originally consider for the Triple Crown and then took a long time to decide on whether to run in the Derby or not. It may be true that DwF likes the a synthetic surface but the colt has proven success on dirt with a 2nd place on the Santa Anita dirt after overcoming being floated wide - DwF also works out on the dirt and has some sizzling works. Also there is question marks on pedigree and ability to get 10 furlongs -- Two Step Salsa was a 7f-8f runner for Godolphin but the dam-sire Saint Ballado does add some stamina - Saint Ballado has been one of the top dam-sires - and is the dam-sire of Social Inclusion - a freak of a horse that we will see in the Preakness
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆☆
13 Chitu
Pedigree: Henny Hughes - Sea Gift (AP Indy)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Record: 4-3-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 110-98-101
Owner Tanma Corporation has run only 2 sets of 3yos - last year their Super Ninety Nine prepped for Kentucky Derby with winning the Southwest Stakes but was sidetracked and now in their 2nd crop has Chitu. By all accounts, Chitu's Sunland Derby was a very fast performance -1:47 4/5th a tick off the track record - top C-Speed Index fig, 103 Brisnet, 102 Beyer. It is uncertain what Baffert was thinking in entering Chitu in the Derby Trial to only scratch. Could Baffert be trying to pump up the odds on a horse or was Baffert trying to replace Chitu with Bayern (who finished first in the Derby Trial but was DQd). Last year I struggled whether to include Governor Charlie in the mix or not - was happy when the horse did not enter because Baffert made the decision for me. Now also debating on whether Chitu will be in the mix.....
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Dynaformer - Brisquette (Unbridled's Song)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Record: 7-3-1-0
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 104-107-96
Medal Count could be the pick for NBC’s recently announced Kentucky Derby “fashion correspondents” former Olympians Tara Lipinski and Johnny Weir. Do you have to hand it to Johnny Weir - he has courage - he went to Russia to help broadcast the Olympics for NBC in a less than tolerant environment created by Putin while also being criticized by those in the US saying that by going to Sochi was being tacitly supportive of Russian policies. But he went in to Sochi didn’t tone down a thing - certainly irritating Putin and his cronies — but perhaps Vladmir should be open to getting fashion tips as the pics of him shirtless chopping down a tree or hunting in the forest are a bit disturbing. As much as we can draw parallels between Putin’s annexation of Crimea and Germany’s occupation of the Sudetenland in 1938 -- we also see Medal Count and We Miss Artie having the same traits (er...that segue was a stretch). For both in last 5 races - have 3 races on turf/synthetic surface - and they both sported the same 2 wins, 1 place results - the other 2 races of those 5 for both were the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita - both put in clunker in those dirt races. Both are sired by mostly turf sires but broodmare sires for both were solid Kentucky Derby performers. Even though bred and raced on turf/synthetic - hidden in the past performances may be a hint that this colt may like the Churchill Downs dirt last November the colt worked out 4 furlongs in :47 flat at CD and by all accounts Medal Count is loving the track and moving well over it. Also Medal Count is the only horse in the field to be sired by a sire of Kentucky Derby winner (Barbaro was also a progeny of Dynaformer). As the Locks feels We Miss Artie's chances of winning the Derby are as limited as Vladmir Putin's girlfriend's qualifications to light the Olympic torch - Medal Count may actually have a shot to hit the platform.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆☆
Pedigree: Tapit - Free Spin (Olympio)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Record: 7-2-2-2
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-104-103
Tapiture's sire is by the sire Tapit who is probably the hottest sire in the land. Tapit is also the sire of Ring Weekend also of Constitution who also would have been in field after winning the Florida Derby but for being sidelined with an injury also is the sire of Untapable who is the Kentucky Oaks favorite. Tapit won the Wood Memorial and did go on to run in the Kentucky Derby but was stuck in the back with Governor Christie-sized traffic problems and never threatened. Tapit was trained by Michael Dickinson who is a fascinating guy that I recently had the pleasure of meeting at Fair Hill training center recently. Beyond his background as a trainer which included winning the BC Mile with Da Hoss then not racing the horse for 2 years - ran in an allowance prep and then won the BC Mile again - Dickinson is also the designer of Tapeta which is a synthetic surface used at Fair Hill, Dubai's Meydan race track, Golden Gate Fields among many other places. Dickinson was a fascinating guy to talk to jumping from stories of getting calls from Frankie D' Ettori begging for an invite to one of his parties in Dubai to having Sir Alex Ferguson as a house guest. Tapiture a Chestnut son of Tapit has a resume that is worthy a look. Sports a 2-turn win at Churchill Downs - the only horse in the field that can say that also had a strong win in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park and then ran a solid 2nd in the Rebel. The colt missed in the Arkansas Derby - 4th over 7 lengths back may show that he is not up for the task at 10 furlongs. Jock is a Derby rookie which is tall ask. Also horse will lose some betting support as the colt's trainer is being dogged with poor treatment of horses allegations by PETA.....perhaps if trained by the very interesting Michael Dickinson -- the Locks would be compelled to consider Tapiture more.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆
16 Intense Holiday
Pedigree: Harlan's Holiday - Intensify (Unbridled's Song)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 8-2-1-1
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 92-107-99
When I was looking for a Derby horse - I thought I would like Intense Holiday - 100 last race Brisnet figure...strong closing kicks in the Risen Star and the Remsen...also who can't like Johnny V in the saddle. But when i scratched at the surface I saw things that made me look at others for the Lock. Unlike Wicked Strong who has had strong success while racing in NY....Intense Holiday was never in the money in 3 starts in NY - with NY tracks. Came home in the Louisiana Derby in a dawdling 13 3/5th. Won the Risen Star but the Risen Star has only produced 1 Derby winner out of a couple of dozen runners in the last 25 years. The colt's pedigree although rock solid - has a sense of disappointment attached to it - Intense Holiday's sire and dam-sire are both beaten Derby favorites.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Master Command - Mother (Lion Hearted)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Record: 6-1-1-2
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 91-99-100
Dallas Stewart rocks a hair style that can be best described as Hall and Oates - to be honest I don't remember which one was Hall and which one was Oates but Dallas's hair looks like the guy's hair that didn't have the mustache. Like his hair, this years Derby is a bit of deja vu for Dallas as he returns to the Kentucky Derby with a horse that finished 6th in the Risen Star, missed in the Louisiana Derby by about 5 lengths, hasn't popped a Beyer speed fig higher than 90, and has a late running style. Last year, Dallas came into the Derby with a horse with a similar resume and I said this of Golden Soul: Too much for this one to overcome to win....If this colt wins - I will let the New England Patriots repossess my soul in the after life. I didn't give the colt enough credibility as Golden Soul did come off the pace to capture 2nd thus killing most of my exotics. What was overlooked was that the fact that the Louisiana Derby came up big in Brisnet figures and although Golden Soul received a paltry 85 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby. Commanding Curve will need to overcome history - Commanding Curve is a ridgling also known as a cryptorchid (I will let you google that one) - no other ridgling has won the Derby although Funny Cide was a ridgling before being gelded and winning the Derby as a gelding. Golden Soul was helped last year by a torrid 22.57, 45.33, 1:09.80 pace setting the stage for closers - Commanding Curve at 50-1 with a late running style could also be helped by a hopped up pace - will if be deja vu all over again?
Thee Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
Pedigree: Candy Ride - She's An Eleven (In Excess)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 7-2-2-1
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 96-99-99
The mare of Candy Boy is She’s An Eleven….as I understand, the millennials have abandoned the historic 1-10 rating scale for desirability of members of the opposite sex - thats alluded to in the mare’s name - for a binary scale 0 or 1. Simpler and to the point - which are certainly traits of millennials. So is the new Millennial name for this mare She’s a Binary 1+ ?? As to the colt’s chances in the Derby...Candy Boy has been a continually approving colt and this is proven by increasing speed figs in each of its races - a trend that has let the Locks cash some big tickets but…. seems to be that Candy Boy will be in the 2nd wave of horses putting the colt in perhaps the 8-14th position at the 2nd call - unfortunately that this appears to not to be a good position to be in - in the last 12 runnings of the Kentucky Derby - there has been only 1 winner and 1 place finish of horses in the 8th-14th position after the 2nd call — traffic problems - forced running style can attribute to this lack of success.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆
Pedigree: Curlin - Magical Ride (Storm Cat)
Trainer: "Bronco" Billy Gowan
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Record: 9-2-2-4
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 98-104-93
As noted there are some great stories baked into this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby - on how horses finally get to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May can truly be amazing. Ride On Curlin is really the story of the "little guy" getting the big shot. First off Ride On Curlin is a small horse and is part of the reason why trainer "Bronco Billy" Gowan was able to buy the colt at Keeneland for $25,000. Actually the $25,000 was big money for Billy as it was the most the trainer had directed an owner to pay for a horse. Billy Gowan doesn't run a big operation in fact he only has 3 horses in his barn with Ride On Curlin being one of them. Early on with Ride On Curlin they knew they had something special - the horse broke its maiden in July of its 2yo year - running a track record at Ellis Park - recording a 102 Brisnet figure - 90+ Beyer and attracting buyers - despite being offered $1 million - owner David Dougherty and trainer Gowan continued on with the colt. Ride On Curlin from that first maiden race has 4 show finishes in stakes races and most recently a runner up finish at Oaklawn Park. Perhaps not quite at the level to win or place in this Derby but this horse continues to provide a thrill to its owner and trainer but also hope to those that are in racing on a small scale.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
20 Wicked Strong
Pedigree: Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey (Charismatic)
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Record: 6-2-1-1
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
Last 3 Race CSIs: 108-97-89
When they open up the betting windows at Suffolk Downs simulcast - they are going to be lined up to bet on this colt --- Wicked Strong in response to the Boston Marathon bombing victims and in support to the city of Boston. Owned by Centennial Farms, a syndicate, that is run out of the Boston suburbs - Wicked Strong possibly to the dismay of the Boston fateful actually is a big fan of New York. The Hard Spun colt is 4 for 4 in the money on NY tracks including winning the Wood Memorial in an impressive drive down the stretch.....but threw out 2 clunkers in races at Gulfstream Park in Florida. What the colt will do on the Churchill Downs oval is the big question. With Wicked Strong's sire coming in 2nd in the Derby and its dam-sire winning the Derby - breeding would suggest that the colt will get the distance. Also Wicked Strong's last 1/8th in the Wood was sub 13 although only popped an 86 Brisnet late pace figure in that effort. Perhaps that is because Wicked Strong ran most of the stretch on his left lead and only switching leads just near the finish. Wicked Strong certainly was helped by the very fast internal fractions laid down by Social Inclusion and pushed by Samraat in the Wood.
The Lock's Verdict: ☆☆☆
The Locks wagers are as follows:
$1 exacta #4 over all = $1 x 18 = $18
$1 exacta all over #4 = $1 x 18 = $18
$1 exacta box #4, #5, #12, #20, #14 = $1 x 5 x 4 = $20
$1 trifecta #4, #5, #12, #14/ #4, #5, #20, #12, #14/#4, #5, #20, #12, #14 = $1 x 4 x 4 x 3 = $48
$3 WPS #14 = $9
$3 WPS #12 = $9
$1 exacta #17,#4,#14, #12 = $1x3x4= $12
Total = $134
Also being run is the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket - the first leg of the English Triple Crown. The Locks are:
◎ Toormore 6-1
○ Noozhoh Canarias 16-1 --- interesting bet - called the Spanish 'Frankel'.
▲Shifting Power 33-1
△ Kingman 5-4
In the Oaks - Untapable is going to be tough to beat but will be bet down to chalk (4/5-1) so lets try to play against her....lets go Oaks/Derby Double # 4, Rosalind, #11 My Miss Sophia, #12 Got Lucy with #4 Danza, #14 Medal Count, #12 Dance with Fate = $2 x 3 x 3 = $18
