Commissioner (28-1 Current Vegas Future line)
AP Indy - Flaming Heart (Touch Gold)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Has already 2 9 furlong wins which is rare even for a Derby starter. Last race the colt came home in 12.1 on a day that Gulfstream Park wasn’t playing fast. Pletcher already nominated colt to Louisiana Derby and the Holy Bull. Pletcher has many other Derby hopefuls including Harpoon, Havana, Ichiban Warrior and Surfing USA who may end up running the first Saturday in May.
Top Billing (35-1)
Curlin - Parade Queen (AP Indy)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
If we like Commissioner (which we do) then we should also like Top Billing - Top Billing came a close 2nd in Commissioners 9 furlong win at Gulfstream Park. Late kick and the breeding will suit it well for 10 furlong under the Twin Spires. Hy Kodiak Warrior may be another colt from the race that Commissioner and Top Billing raced in that may move on.
Wired Bryan (125-1)
Stormy Atlantic-Red Melody (Runaway Groom)
Trainer: Michael Dilger
Only clunker is in the mud in the G1 Hopeful. All 4 wins are by open lengths. Question marks: no recorded workouts since October. If doesn’t run Derby will certainly rack up big money in valuable NY state bred races.
Asserting Bear (275-1)
Bear’s Kid - Star Guest (Assert (IRE))
Trainer: Baker Reade
Has 4 stakes runs - including a win, a 2nd and a 3rd - Already has a 9 furlong win on the Woodbine poly-track. Training in Florida for 2014 debut. Although the pedigree is modest(sire only brings C$ 2,500) - the breeding does suggest that the colt can get the 10f distance.
Honor Code (10-1)
AP Indy - Serena’s Cat (Storm Cat)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Has a lot of attributes to like. Trained by 2013 Derby winner Shug McGaughey. Breeding suggests will get the distance +. Winner of the 9f Remsen with a sub 12 final furlong. Debut race showed what a freak this horse can be - was 22 lengths off the lead but still won by 4+ and recording a 138 Bris Late Pace figure - I don’t think I’ve ever seen a figure that high.
Wicked Strong (45-1)
Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey(Charismatic)
Trainer: James Jerkins
With a name like this - isn’t surprising to note that the horse is owned by Don Little’s Boston based Centennial Farm syndicate. Third in the 9f Remsen. The $375k purchase is training well at Palm Meadow with sights on Dreby preps.
Cleburne (75-1)
Dixie Union - Joyful (Distorted Humor)
Trainer: Dale Romans
2 for 2 in career and in races 1 mile + - including winning the 2 turn Iroquois at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, colt bucked shins while training at Santa Anita leading up to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile - hasn’t recorded any works since so either may be running out of time to get ready and Derby qualifying points or could be in good shape as may be a fresh horse.
Tapiture (28-1)
Tapit - Free Spin (Olympio)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Has won going 2 turns at Churchill Downs already in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by 4+ lengths. Gold Hawk, an Empire Maker colt from a mare that won the BC Juvenile Fillies is also a potential Derby horse out of the Asmussen barn.
Louies Flower (125-1)
Flower Alley-Tembisa (Johannesburg)
Trainer: W Bret Calhoun
Not many run their Derby Trail thru Lone Star Park and Remmington Park but this colt will try. Has rattled off 3 wins in a row including 1 stakes win going 1 mile and beating Noble Cornerstone who started its career with an impressive win at Aqueduct.
Noble Moon (45-1)
Malibu Moon-Mambo Bell(Kingmambo)
Trainer: Leah Gyamati
This colt is out of the same sire as Orb who won last year’s Derby. Has just gamely won the G2 Jerome a 1mile+ race at Aqueduct.
Shared Belief (12-1)
Candy Ride - Common Hope (Storm Cat)
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Right now the top 3yo on the west coast - 3 for 3 - has won by a total of 20+ lengths. Can Shared Belief join Funny Cide and Mine that Bird as some of the few geldings that have won the Kentucky Derby. Tamarando, another Hollendorfer trainee, is California bred colt that has shown enough (7 out of 8 in the $$ starts including 5 stakes tries) to make noise outside of the Golden State.
Baratti (150-1)
Medaglia d’Oro - Surf Song (Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully bred colt that just torched the field at Aqueduct going 8.5 furlongs. Last 2.5 furlongs on 12 flat pace even though the colt was geared down in the last 1/16th of a mile.
Strong Mandate (30-1)
Tiz Now - Clear Mandate(Deputy Minister)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
We expect after DWL had success in the 3yo races with Oxbow winning the Preakness and Will Take Charge winning the Travers that he will have at least one runner in the Derby. This is currently strongest 3yo that DWL trains - after 2 romping wins - Strong Mandate threw a clunker in the Champagne but redeemed self with a 3rd in the BC Juvenile.
No Nay Never (250-1)
Scat Daddy - Cat’s Eye WItness (Elusive Quality)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Perfect 3 for 3 including a win in a graded stakes at Ascot and a win in the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville (the Saratoga of France). Now training in Florida. Trained by Wesley Ward who has a long history of getting 2yos to the track early (including No Nay Never who raced at the Keeneland April meet as a 2yo) but many of these horses don’t continue this success into their 3yo year.
Midnight Hawk (40-1)
Midnight Lute - Miss Wineshine (Wolf Power)
Trainer: Bob Buffet
It would be expected that Bob Baffert would have at least one starter in the Derby….after winning the Sham Stakes, Midnight Hawk would be the front runner of Bob Baffert’s deep but underperforming 3yo bench.
Coastline (85-1)
Speighttown-Culinary (El Amante)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Has won 2 out of 4 including a 1 mile listed stakes race at Churchill Downs….last race was the Delta Downs Jackpot which the Locks will toss because the gray colt stumbled at start - used up a lot of energy to get back in position on a track that was favoring horses on or near the lead. Nominated to a number of Derby preps so owner and trainer still feel colt has potential. Pedigree may be an issue for the Derby.
Rise Up (45-1)
Rockport Harbor-Appenzell(Johannesburg)
Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Already has 4 wins (all runaway victories) including recording a stakes record time in Delta Downs Jackpot - but would be taking an unlikely route to the Derby via Presque Isle, Mountaineer Park and Delta Downs. Wins are impressive looks like wants to continue on.
Vicar’s in Trouble (75-1)
Unknown Road (45-1)
Both coming off impressive maiden sprint races at Fair Grounds. Although coming off sprints - breeding suggests that they go further distances as well as their workouts don’t point to simply a one shot rocket. Of the 2 would give the nod on future potential to Unknown Road.
Del Rio Harbor (350-1)
Harbor the Gold - Bahati (Horse Chestnut)
Trainer: Doris Harwood
Want a real long shot - now at 350-1 - has won 4 of 6 races including an win in a stakes at 1 1/16th mile. Issue is that hasn’t raced anywhere beyond Emerald Downs and hasn’t a work since that stakes victory. But perhaps they can get ready for races at Golden Gate and then to Santa Anita. Long shot but may worth a flyer.
