2013 Early Derby Locks Contenders - the Derby Baker's Dozen

The Kentucky Derby is only 3 months away - the list of 365 Triple Crown nominees have been published....so its time for the Locks to get out an early look at the Kentucky Derby contenders......here goes.....

Uncaptured
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owner: John Oxley
Sire: Lion Heart
Dam: Captivating (Arch)

The only blemish in Uncaptured's 7 race career - was in the Grey Stakes up in Woodbine where the colt faced a troubled trip. Has 2 wins under the Twin Spires on the Churchill Downs oval - winning both the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Iroquois. Last year Gemologist had 2 - 2 turn wins at Churchill Downs but disappointed in the Derby - Hoping this colt out of an Arch broodmare - fares the same as another colt with the same dam sire-  last year's Derby winner I'll Have Another.  Beyond Uncaptured there are 3 other TC nominees with Arch as a broodmare sire.

Cerro
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Owner: Team Valor International
Sire: Mr. Greeley
Dam: Ballette (Giant's Causeway)

Mamma Mia - this colt started career in Italy winning a stakes in its debut race.  Out of the 365 TC nominees only 6 have won on the dirt going 1 1/8m already.  Graham Motion trained Cerro has already won at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream Park and will be pointed to a Derby prep and if passes that test then on to Louisville. 

Orb
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Owner: Stuart Janney and Phipps Stable
Sire: Malibu Moon
Dam:Lady Liberty (Unbridled)

From the same connections as Easy Goer - has also won 9 furlong race already.  Does all his work coming off the pace.   Debut race at Saratoga last summer is a key race for the Derby.  Violence, one of the rightful Derby favs and the Paul Hornung-owned Titletown Five - finished 1-2 with Orb 3rd.  Will Orb follow Easy Goer's footsteps and prep in the Gotham?  Remember Easy Goer ran an astonishing 120 Beyer at the Gotham in '89.  Orb isn't Easy Goer but does have a shot to do something that Easy Goer didn't do that is winning the Derby.

Overanalyze
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stables
Sire: Dixie Union
Dam: Unacloud (Unaccounted For)

Also has won at 1 1/8m already.  I always keep in my early Derby picks the winners of 2 2yo races -  the winner of the Kentucky JC (Uncaptured) and the winner of the Remsen which this Dixie Union colt won.   Overanalyze comes from the same connections (Repole/Pletcher) that game us Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty.  Maybe it is over-analysis but something to keep in mind in looking at the past performances for this colt and that of Uncaptured - there appears to be anomalies in the speed figures.   The speed figs for Overanalyze's Remsen (Brisnet 104, Beyer 99) seem overinflated and those of Uncaptured's Ky JC (Brisnet 93, Beyer 76) appear too low.  When racing head-to-head Uncaptured beat Overanalyze by 8 lengths. 

Balance the Books
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Sire: Lemon Drop Kid
Dam:Kreisieriana (Seeking the Gold)

Beautifully bred Lemon Drop Kid colt has yet to race on dirt but based on breeding should be able to handle.   Has already won twice going 2 turns.  And then came from the clouds to just miss by less than 2 lengths in BC Juvenile Turf.  Owned by Klaravich Stables who are hedge fund guys that use financial terms as the naming convention for their horses (their other TC nominees include Carried Interest, Clawback and Volatile Markets).   Good to see this one is fiscally responsible. 

Goldencents
Trainer: Doug O'Neil
Owner: W C Racing
Sire:　Into Mischief
Dam: Golden Works (Banker's Gold)


Purchased by Crestwood as agent and trained as a 2yo by Webb Carroll has already banked over $780k.   Has already won 2 stakes and overall 3 for  4 - only loss was a 2nd place finish to BC Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont.  CSIs in every race has been 100+ (105, 101,108,105).  In the days where graded stakes earnings was the ticket into the Kentucky Derby, this horse would have certainly would have had its ticket punched already but they've changed the priority criteria to a points system based on winning or placing in Kentucky Derby prep races - with those races from the end of February to mid-April getting more weight as such Goldencents may have some more work to do before this colt can load into the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

Itsmyluckyday
Trainer: Edward Plesa
Owner: Triology Stables
Sire: Lawyer Ron
Dam: Viva la Slew (Doneraile Court)

Has more experience than ZsaZsa Gabor.  Already has raced 9 times at 4 different tracks - chalking up 5 wins.   Including an open length victory in the Holy Bull vs 2yo champion Shanghai Bobby.  Sports great speed figs including a 110 CSI (in 9 races only 1 race is sub 100) and a Brisnet triple digit late pace figures. Great positive feeling name.

Violence
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Black Rock
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Dam: Violent Beauty (Gone West)

Great record: 3 wins in 3 tries
Great breeding: Medaglia d'Oro sire, $600k Keeneland purchase.
Great versatility: 3 wins on 3 tracks on 2 different surfaces
Awful name.

Shanghai Bobby
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Racing
Sire: Harlan's Holiday
Dam: Steelin' (Orientate)

Was riding on a 5 for 5 championship 2 yo season and then when the calendar turned to 2013 - Shanghai Bobby ran into Itsmyluckyday and lost by 2 in the Holy Bull a Gulfstream Park.  Still should be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May and will attract money because the Harlan's Holiday colt is a horse that just wants to run.  Has popped CSIs of 108,109,111,106.   Unfortunately with Shanghai Bobby and his connections there is negative correlation between being a champion 2yo and being a Ky Derby winner.   In the last 33 years only Street Sense in 2006 managed to do both.  

Bradester
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Owner: Joseph Sutton
Sire: Lion Heart
Dam: Grandestofall (Grand Slam)

Has 2 2-turn wins in a 3 race career including a win at Churchill Downs.  Breeding suggests 7f-9f not the Derby's 10f distance but horse is improving.  Has a win over.   Will be tested soon.

Oxbow
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Bluegrass Hall
Sire: Awesome Again
Dam: Tizamazing (Cee's Tizzy)

Wouldn't be a Derby without the D. Wayne Lukas and his Foster Grants….definite up and down career so far but is on an uptick with a 11.5 length score in the LeComte at the Fair Grounds. Also has a win at Churchill Downs.

Verrazano 
Trainer: Todd Platter
Owner: Let's Go Stable
Sire: More Than Ready
Dam: Enchanted Rock (Giant's Causeway)

Has won 2 races by a total of 24 lengths.  His 1 mile race was impressive taking into account that the colt's 7f split was faster than the Hutcheson Stakes was run in - even though the colt wasn't being asked and had another 1f to run.  Has already run CSIs of 111.  Like Bradester - the colt maybe better suited for 7f-9f races but thats what I thought about Bodemeister last year

Normandy Invasion
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Fox Hill Farm
Sire: Tapit
Dam: Boston Lady (Boston Harbor)

If we like Overanalyze then we need to also like Normandy Invasion.  This Tapit colt likes to come off the pace to make things exciting in the end.  Just missed nosing out Overanalyze in the Remsen.   Won its maiden breaker by 9. Sports the highest late pace figure of all TC nominees.  

Others to think about:

Vyjack: unbeaten, 111 CSI while winning the Jerome, like Goldencents by a first crop sire Into Mischief.
Dynamic Sky/Falling Sky....2 different horses, 2 different styles - similar names, neck apart in the Sam Davis, both coming up big in the CSIs
Mylute:  111 CSI in win at Fair Grounds, came home in 29.1 in last 2.5 f thats 11.8sec/f pace explains the 108 Brisnet pace.  Question mark is the stamina in the breeding - sire (Midnight Lute) and the dame sire average winning distance is an average 6.25 f....