We'll celebrate the 235th birthday of the United States of America this weekend. I am realizing now how rank and foul smelling Independence Hall which fka Pennsylvania State House was at that time. Think about it....56 guys in wool suits and powdered wigs jammed into a room during the summer with no air conditioning.... also Ben Franklin's penchant for bean pies probably didn't help the matter.
We typically associate Independence Day celebration with a Bar-b-q....full with grilling up hamburgers and hot dogs, throw in some Budweiser beer and apple pie in the equation along with some pyrotechnics and you may have yourself a good ole American time.
I like to say "4th of July weekend", rather than "Independence Day weekend" as it shows our US arrogance as we've taken that day away from the rest of the world and we don't need to put any further descriptor on it. Kind of like how MLB calls its championship the World Series when only teams from the US (er, and 1 from Canada) play.....
Well, 4th of July weekend features some great racing, including 15 graded stakes including 4 Grade 1s.......here are the Locks on some of these races
Triple Bend Stakes, Grade 1, 7 furlongs , 3yo+, Hollywood Park, July 2
Am going to go against the class of the field Smiling Tiger who has a few Grade 1 wins to its name also has a 3rd in last year's BC Sprint. But has been shelved since the colt didn't fire in one of the Kentucky Derby undercard races. The race lacks a true speed burner who will need the lead but horses coming off the pace actually have been doing well at Hollywood on 7 furlong races.
-Usually I don't want to bet on horses that are going to go off at 2-1 but # 7 Amazombie in its last 7 has 5 wins and two 2nds (lost by a head and a 1/2) including 3 wins at Hollywood.
- #8 Bench Points at 12-1 is a 3yo trying to step it up against older horses but hasn't lost in 5 tries at races less than 1 mile. Will come off the pace which has been a successful model at this Hollywood meet.
- #1 M One Rifle at 8-1 is interesting. Has been working out well. Has 6 in the money finishes out of 8 tries at Hollywood and sports 2 wins at the distance. As the field is devoid of a speed burner could be the only one that may try to take (and maybe keep) the lead.
The Locks:
$2 Exacta box 7,8,1
$5 Win/Place 8
Prioress Stakes, Grade 1, 3yo fillies, 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 4
Small field of 6 but still odds should be decent on these horses as each of these horses are bettable. Consider the fact that 5 of the 6 in the field have won their last race, all being at 6 furlongs, in dashing fashion, with winning by lengths of 4+, 5+, 12, 7+, 4+.
Roman Treasure won at Belmont in last sports high speed figs.
Quantum Miss also has high speed figs and has ability to crush fields.
$5 exacta RT/QM
$5 WP QM
Jersey Shore, Grade 3, 3yos, 6 Furlongs, Monmouth, July 3
Zero Rate Policy ..2 wins at track as well as high speed figs and early pace running style
Royal Currier....won or place in each of 3 tries at track...
$5 Win Place RC
$2 Exacta ZRP/RC
Bed O' Roses, Grade 3, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares, 7 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
Not sure if this is a betting race as Hilda's Passion is 1/5 favorite.....
lets go Curlina over all $1 exacta and All over Curlina $1 exacta - this will pay big if Hilda's Passion falters.
Salvator Mile, Grade 3, 3yo+, 1 Mile, Monmouth, July 2
Morning Line is 9/5 favorite with no out of $$ starts since first madien race
Soaring Empire ...lets toss the Met Cap and the horse is 3 for 3 for in the money finishes in 2011 also has raced well at Monmouth
Motovato not sure to make of this one but hasn't been out of money since 2009 but has raced exclusively during that period and this is 3rd start after 1 year layoff.
$2 exacta box ML/SE/M
$5 WP ML
Suburban Handicap, Grade 2, 3yo+, 1 1/8 Mile, Belmont, July 2
Colizeo and the NY bred Icabad Crane look best to me at the prices...
Colizeo $5wp
$2 exacta C, IC
Bashford Manor, Grade 3, 2yo, 6 Furlongs, Churchill Downs, July 2
Power World showed enough presence to have a troubled race and still win in debut at CD.
Sum of the Parts....fast debut complimented by runner-up blowing out field in their next.
Hot Speed....outclassed (ran in madien claimer in last) and coming up from Florida but was impressive in last...given 2yo races are variable and this horse is going off at 20-1..give a try.
$6WP Power World
$1 ex PW, SotP,HS
Matron, Grade 2, 2yo fillies, 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
lets go Hook it Up and Defy Gravity...
HiU, $4WP
$2 ex HiU, DG
Futurity, Grade 2, 2yo , 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
6 horses coming in from 6 different tracks but none have raced previously at Belmont.
Lets go Florida shipper..Large Kaufy and Monmouth shipper Team 6
$3 WP LK
$4 WP T6
United Nations, Grade 1, 1 3/8 Mile Turf, Monmouth, July 2
Teaks North, local success, Stacelita, Grade 1 success, Bourbon Bay, recent success (only 1 out of $$ start in last 2 years)
$4 WP Stacelita
$ 3 WP Teaks North
$1 ex TN,S BB
Dwyer Stakes, Grade 2, 1 1/16 Mile, 3yo, Belmont, July 2
Adios Charlie looking to complete place showings in the NY B-level Triple Crown-- Jerome, Peter Pan and the Dwyer...
Cool Blue Red Hot and Tech Fall may place
$4 wp AC
$1 ex AC, CBRH,TF
Shoemaker Mile, Grade 1, 1 Mile Turf, 3yo+, Hollywood, July 2
Victor's Cry will want Liberian Freighter and Courageous Cat set a quick pace....
Victor's Cry $5 WP
if Liberian Freighter not pushed...then LF $3 WP
Good luck!!!
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epilogue
Triple Bend Stakes, Grade 1, 7 furlongs , 3yo+, Hollywood Park, July 2
Salvator Mile, Grade 3, 3yo+, 1 Mile, Monmouth, July 2
Suburban Handicap, Grade 2, 3yo+, 1 1/8 Mile, Belmont, July 2
Bashford Manor, Grade 3, 2yo, 6 Furlongs, Churchill Downs, July 2
$6WP Power World
$1 ex PW, SotP,HS
Power World places paying $14.40, on $18.00 bets, net -$3,60.
United Nations, Grade 1, 1 3/8 Mile Turf, Monmouth, July 2
$4 WP Stacelita
$ 3 WP Teaks North
$1 ex TN,S BB
Teaks North wins, WP pays $35.60 on $20 bets, + 15.60
Dwyer Stakes, Grade 2, 1 1/16 Mile, 3yo, Belmont, July 2
$4 wp AC
$1 ex AC, CBRH,TF
Adios Charlie places paying $4.80 on $14.00 bets, net -$9.20
Shoemaker Mile, Grade 1, 1 Mile Turf, 3yo+, Hollywood, July 2
LF $3 WP
No winning tickets on $16 bets, net - $16.00
Prioress Stakes, Grade 1, 3yo fillies, 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 4
$5 exacta RT/QM$5 WP QM
No winning tickets on $20 bets, net -$20.00
Jersey Shore, Grade 3, 3yos, 6 Furlongs, Monmouth, July 3
$5 Win Place RC$2 Exacta ZRP/RC
Royal Currier scratched no bets...
Bed O' Roses, Grade 3, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares, 7 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
Curlina over all $1 exacta and All over Curlina $1 exacta
Hilda's Passion did falter but Curlina was 5th.
No winning tickets on $12 of bets, -$12.00
Matron, Grade 2, 2yo fillies, 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
HiU, $4WP
$2 ex HiU, DG
No winning tickets on $12 of bets, net -$12.00
Futurity, Grade 2, 2yo , 6 Furlongs, Belmont, July 3
$3 WP LK
$4 WP T6
Team Six places paying $9.40 on $14.00, net -$4.60
Total winning tickets = $64.20 on $184.00 bets, net -$99.80 for weekend...
