2024 Kentucky Derby Locks
The
Locks’ readers may be saying to themselves the same exact words of then New
York Jets owner Leon Hess "I want results now, I'm entitled to some
enjoyment, and that means winning,"
Indeed, 11 out of 16 of the Locks since 2008 finished in the trifecta but only 3 of
the last 16 (18.75%) have actually won the Derby – yes better than a dart board
(5.22%) but not good enough. Consider
also that the odds for The Locks’ Derby winners averaged only 4.17-1 – so if
you bet $10 win ticket on the Locks over these last 16 years - $160 bet – payout $71.7. ROI = -55.19%. Clearly the Locks needs to be better than the
Jets were after Leon Hess uttered those words -- which just happened to be at the press
conference announcing the hiring of Rich Kotite. If you are unfamiliar to Mr. Kotite's reign with the Jets, Kotite went 4W and 28L and
was mercifully let go after a 1-15 season.
Nothing to worry about because the Locks this year has the winner and
with odds to put the Locks’ lifetime ROI back in black.
Past Locks:
2023:
Tapit Trice – placed 7th – 4.53-1 odds
2022: Tiz the Bomb – 9th
– 31.00-1
2021: Essential Quality – 3rd *–
2.90-1
2020: Tiz the Law –2nd -- odds:
.70-1
2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1
2018: Audible – finish 3rd –
odds: 7.00-1
2017: Always Dreaming – 1st –
odds: 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen – 4th -
11.80-1
2015: Firing Line -- 2nd –
9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd –
8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st –
5.40-1
2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th –
14.00-1
2011: Archarcharch – 15th –
12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd –
11.70 -1
2009: Musket Man – 3rd –
19.00-1
2008: Big Brown – 1st –
2.40-1
The Locks is going to continue with the
formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.
Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong
in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without
good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.
Runners: Looking for those horses that are
still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking for horses that are not
trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby
preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since
1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts
and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Before 2023, there was only Giacamo and Rich Strike
that had come in with only 1 win and won the Derby but those 2 unlikely winners rewarded those
that took the gamble on them 50-1 and 81-1 payouts, respectively. Average
odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 18-1. Accepting low odds on those
with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.
Runners
As a student of
the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks has a lot of faith on the premise that "pace makes the race". Dr.
Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in
his mom’s basement (not that there is anything wrong with that) and crunched
numbers of 1000s of races, died young from a diet that consisted of 2 liter
Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess Snowballs, Utz Party Mix and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace
handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race finishes, is important. To determine how the Derby
will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze
splits and positions at those splits.
We have seen
seismic shifts in how the Derby has been run and won in the past 9
years. From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners
after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1
lengths. During that same period, the median finishing position of
Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the
1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data,
there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less
than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.
In the 8 years between 2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the
Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2
mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near
lead. The 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses
finishing first by those wiring the field. It also hasn’t been due
to slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong and 8 furlong splits have averaged 46 2/5, 1:11 1/5, 1:35.72, respectively. Although the
average mile split, is almost 2 seconds longer than Aaron Rodgers’ on-field
Jets career, these are quick fractions. In 2022 with no Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from
more than 17 lengths back and in 2023, similarly, we found Mage win
after being more than 13 lengths off the pace. Is the shift back to those that come off pace real OR those that may be on or near lead will prevail? The
Locks will be looking at a horse coming not too far off pace – the following
are Brisnet P types: Just Steel and Mystik Dan.
Although in
looking to fill your exotics since 2010:
- 2nd place horses have been
(on average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8 lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths
off the lead.
- 3rd place
horses: ½ mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1
mile, 3 lengths off the lead.
Armed with those
facts – will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the
winner and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys
history and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader
of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a
semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in
the midterm-- the Locks surrendered from the class.
The history of the
Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather
Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the
Lewis & Clark Expedition fame. Merriweather Clark wasn’t going
to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather
Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby
(which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French
pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to
Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs
and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.
Since
1894-95, the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs have ironically adorned the
grandstand like 2 candles on a birthday cake. A little known fact is that the Twin Spires were designed
by 24-year-old named Joseph D. Baldez who is thought to be inspired to add the ornamental
spires from a building that his architecture firm designed several years prior,
the then called Central Kentucky Lunatic Asylum.
The Locks does
like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 149 of data already accumulated which can give
you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when
wagering:
Last-race-Locks
Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 28 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won
and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and
Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby
favorite and Derby winner despite a sub-100 LSI. There
were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine
that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen Kentucky Derby
winners in last 19 years averaged a last race LSI of
105+. Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs is only: Fierceness
(105), Just Steel (107)
In the same 28 year period, only Mine that Bird and Rich
Strike had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of
100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the following have
100+ Brisnet figs in at least in one of their last 2 races – Mystik Dan, Society Man, Just a Touch, Resilience,
Catching Freedom, Fierceness, Sierra Leone.
Homebreds have
been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 20 and 5 out of the last 13 Derby winners being owned by the same people
that bred them. In the 2024 Kentucky Derby T O Password, Stronghold, Fierceness,
Endlessly, Domestic Product, Mystik Dan are all homebreds.
Derby horses names
starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very
successful with a record of 10 wins out of 202 starters (5.00%). Epic Ride and Endlessly looking to change that trend. Those horses
whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a 11.5%
clip. Just Steel, Just a
Touch, West Saratoga, are hoping for
some luck in its name.
T O Password, Forever Young, are the only non-Kentucky bred Derby
starters. The only other Japanese bred starters were Master Fencer in
2019 and Derma Sotogake
in 2023 who both finished a respectable 6th and Mandarin Hero
(2023) & Crown Pride (2022) who finished 12th
and 13th, respectively.
Since 1914, no
Derby winner has broke its maiden at Fair Grounds (Just a Touch), Elis Park (West Saratoga) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby
winner to win its maiden on foreign soil – Forever Young and
T O Password are attempting to be other foreign trained
horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has not been a Kentucky
Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden at Churchill Downs
– Catching Freedom,
Honor Marie, Track Phantom, Stronghold, Mystik Dan, broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.
Two-thirds of
Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first
or second start including 20 out of the last 23 Derby
winners. These entries took longer to break their maidens: Dornoch (3rd
start), Society Man (4th start), Track Phantom (3rd
start), West Saratoga (5th start).
9 out of the last
13 Derby winners have come into the race off a
win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Catching Freedom
(Louisiana Derby), Fierceness (Florida Derby), Resilience
(Wood Memorial), Sierra Leone (Blue Grass), T O Password (Fukuryu Stakes),
Domestic Product (Tampa Bay Derby), Endlessly (JR Steaks Stakes), Forever Young
(UAE Derby), Stronghold (Santa Anita Derby).
In 2019 the streak
of favorites winning the Derby ended after having a streak of 6 which was the
longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history. This comes after a
period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we
are on a streak of 4 non-favorites
winning the Derby.
Since 1952, no
Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the
Derby, there are no
horses in the 2024 field that had a true clunker in their last race. Track Phantom and
Dornoch were the only horses that did not finish in the top 3 in last race.
Since 1979, only 2
Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012,
Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby
mount. Ben Curtis (Honor
Marie), Axel Concepcion (Encino), Ryusei Sakai (Forever Young), Antonio Fresu
(Stronghold) are all Derby rookies this
year.
Now for the
horse-by-horse Locks’ profiles:
1 Dornoch 20-1
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Good Magic-Puca, by Big Brown
Record: 6:3-2-0
LSI: 96-102-96
Dornoch,
before he even raced once, was being tabbed to be a Derby contender. Consider that Dornoch is the full brother of
2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and that there was significant backside of the
race track buzz about Dornoch based on morning workouts. Dornoch has a Georgetown connection with
Dornoch (as was Mage) was raised on and sold by Brutus Clay’s (GU 1992)
Runnymede Farm.
-
Trainer
Danny Gargan feels that his charge has excuses in last 2 races in that he felt
that Dornoch needed a race to get full fitness when winning the Fountain of
Youth and then the performance in the Blue Grass was compromised that Jockey
Luis Saez was asking, on Gargan’s orders, for Dornoch to race differently than
his regular racing style.
-
Dornoch’s
speed figures especially the Beyer Speed Figures do appear to be sub-par for a
Derby winner.
-
Post
position will not be helpful for chances as Dornoch will have no choice but to
gun for leave – with a lot of pace in the race – may be difficult to hold on
for the full 10 furlongs. There has been
no winner for post position 1 since Ferdinand did so in 1986.
Dornoch
could win this race on the lead but less likely to have a wire-to-wire winner
this year.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
2 Sierra Leone 3-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gafflione
Pedigree: Gun
Runner – Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)
Record: 4:3-1-0
LSI: 96-92-103
Sierra
Leone is owned by the Coolmore “Lads” who run
one of the biggest horse racing operations in the world based out of Tipperary
Ireland. The Coolmore
breeding operation has no less than 60 stallions
and bands of the highest quality broodmares. Ballydoyle,
the racing operation, has saddled no less than 400 individual Grade 1 winners
including a few that have shared a ‘country name’ such as Japan, Luxembourg and
Australia. Sierra Leone, the country,
was named for the Lion Mountains that lie along the coast near its capital
Freetown. Although Sierra Leone had been
synonymous for its blood diamonds during its civil war – it is now where you
can find Bureh Beach one of the better surf breaks in western Africa.
Even if
Coolmore wins the Derby with Sierra Leone - their best 3yo is City of Troy who
will compete for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on the morning of the Kentucky
Derby. But lets consider:
-
Won this
year’s most competitive prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby – the Risen
Star at the Fairgrounds. The race
featured 5 horses that will line up for the Derby – beyond Sierra Leone who
came back to win the Blue Grass Stakes, the race featured Catching Freedom who
won the Louisiana Derby and Resilience who won the Wood Memorial, in their next
races.
-
Speed
figures are on par for a Derby winner including a triple digit Brisnet Speed
Figure, increasing Beyer Speed Figures, qualifying LSI.
-
Only
blemish is a loss by a nose to Dornoch in the Remsen.
-
Has
raced 3x and won 2x at 9 furlongs.
-
Trainer
Chad Brown since 2012 has been either top 5 for trainers in wins and/or
earnings and although he is not known for training 3yo dirt horses – he has 2
in the money finishes out of 7 starters and his last 4 starters have averaged a
very respectable 6th place finish.
One drawback on Chad to consider is his lapse of judgement as he is
known to wear circa 2008 Ed Hardy t-shirts that are one half to a full size too
small while out on the town in Saratoga.
-
No
winner has won from post 2 since Affirmed did so in 1978 but Tyler Gafflione
may be able to save ground from the post and can get positioned by pulling back
Sierra Leone and letting most of the field run ahead.
-
Sierra
Leone, the country, has yet to win an Olympic medal of any type – perhaps the
team can improve on its 49th place finish in the women’s 100m dash
at Paris this summer.
Sierra
Leone should be running late to finish in the frame.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
3 Mystik Dan 20-1
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Pedigree: Goldencents – Ma’am (Colonel
John)
Record: 6: 2-1-1
LSI: 100-106-103
Owner
Lance Gasaway has made his money by overseeing large farms and running an agricultural
flying service. His silks are the colors
of his alma mater, University of Arkansas at Monticello. Lance proudly wore these colors himself as he
is in the UAM sports hall of fame as a prolific wide receiver. Ironic enough, given his crop-dusting
background, that UAM’s mascot is the Boll Weevil. Homebred Mystik Dan could be a real factor if
the Churchill Downs oval comes up wet based on his 8 length romp in the mud in
the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Given that the weather forecast is iffy in Louisville on Saturday, stay tuned. On a fast surface, Mystik Dan won't be a factor. Last 3 races on dry track, Mystik Dan finished 3rd,
5th, 5th and cumulatively, 17.5 lengths behind. This will be Jockey Brian Hernandez’s 5th
Derby mount with best finish being an 8th in 2017. Mystik Dan’s sire
Goldencents has generally produced winners going 6f-8f not the 10f distance of
the Derby.
Has a
boll weevil’s (after being subject to agrochemicals) chance.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
4 Catching Freedom 8-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Pedigree: Constitution – Catch My Drift
(Pioneerof the Nile)
Record: 5:3-0-1
LSI: 103-90-103
Catching Freedom is almost a
carbon copy of the Albaugh Family Stable’s Angel of Empire who was last year’s
Derby favorite and 3rd place finisher. This is what the Locks wrote last year and since
this is not a ChatGPT produced article and to avoid burning precious brain
cells have taken last year’s Locks analysis on Angel of Empire and made a few
tweaks.
Catching
Freedom Angel of Empire owner Dennis Albaugh made his money in
agrochemicals (aka pesticides) and is known in some circles as the King of Crop
Protection – it’s a big business as he was Iowa’s first billionaire.
Lot to like about this Kentucky
Pennsylvania-bred colt:
-
Jockey Flavien Prat is a Derby winner and
out of 6 5 tries
in the Derby has 5 5
in-the-money finishes.
-
When trainer Brad Cox teams up with
Flavien Prat – they have a 38 35% win and 63 60%
in-the-money strike rate.
-
Comments from Brad Cox suggest that AofE
is his best hope for a Derby winner.
-
Speed figures are in range for a Derby
winner and improving – solid LSIs, Rag sheet, Brisnet, last pace Brisnet – only
Beyers are off-par.
-
Put line through AofE’s lone turf start
has not done anything wrong on the track. Brad Cox stayed true with the same stakes prep
races for Catching Freedom that he did for Angel of Empire – Smarty Jones,
Risen Star, Louisiana Derby.
-
3 4 overall
wins including 1 2
– 9 furlong wins and winning at 3 different tracks
including winning over the Churchill Downs oval.
Last year – the only detractor
indicated was that it didn’t appear that the pace scenario would work to Angel
of Empire’s favor where this year it is anticipated it will be favorable. Like we did with Angel of Empire – we’ll keep
this one in the mix.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
5 Catalytic 30-1
Trainer: Saffie Joseph
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Pedigree: Catalina Cruiser – One Show Only (Distorted
Humor)
Record: 3:1-2-0
LSI (Locks Speed Index last 3 races): 99-105-91
The Locks was looking for an angle to like Catalytic – simply because of the silks which prominently features a Lock on the front. The Lock on the silks relates to owner Tami Bobo’s Secure Investments business. But – finding it very difficult to think that Catalytic will be in the mix at all. Trainer Saffie Joseph was previously suspended from racing horses at Churchill Downs for the perception of sending less-than-fit horses to the track and when given the chance to race in the Derby, his charges have finished 8th and 16th. Catalytic’s sire Catalina Cruiser has yet to produce a stakes winner and has one of the lowest Brisnet Sire Production Index(SPIs) in the Derby field. Although 2023 Derby winner Mage came into the Derby with a similar record – 1 win in 3 starts - this has not always yielded success – the median finish for horses with 3 starts is 11th. Catalytic hasn’t won a race since last October. Speed figures also are well below Mage had coming into the Derby and well below par you’d expect for a horse to hit the board in the Derby. Although Catalytic has very long strides 26+ feet per stride – the colt hasn’t been able to maintain that over 9 furlongs with a stride efficiency of a mediocre 90% One bright spot for Catalytic’s chances are that Jose Ortiz is somewhat of a magician in the saddle and can pull a rabbit out of the hat in any given race.
Not near a Lock.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
6 Just Steel 20-1
Owner: BC Stables LLC
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Pedigree: Justify – Irish Lights (Fastnet
Rock)
Record: 11: 2-4-1
LSI: 98-94-107
This will be the 50th trainee of the Old Basketball Coach D. Wayne Lukas to run in the Derby. In the 1990s, when The Locks had narrowed in on a D. Wayne Lukas horse to win the Derby - would sport a pair of Foster Grants a la the legend to watch the race but those days seem to be in the past:
-
Despite
winning the Derby 4x (1988, 1995, 1996, 1999) the average finish for D. Wayne
Lukas’ starters since 2000: 11th
-
Just
Steel hasn’t won a race longer than 6.5 furlongs
-
Just
Steel hasn’t won a race since November 2023.
-
Just
Steel has had inconsistent performances/speed figures across its 11start career
- Just Steel is sired by the last Triple Crown winner Justify - despite his dominance in the 3yo races - having a Triple Crown winner did elude D. Wayne.
The Locks usually treads lightly on politics but given that D. Wayne Lukas ruled the Kentucky Derby in the late‘80s and ‘90s – reminds the Locks of a local Connecticut politician that ruled the 1990s …..and the 2000s ……and the 2010s …..and the 2020s. In fact, Bridgeport CT Mayor Joe Ganim served as mayor 5 consecutive 4-year terms from 1991 to 2003 only resigning when convicted of Federal corruption charges – he then served 7 years in jail and then set up Federal Prison Consultant LLC, which offered white-collar convicts advice on surviving federal prison terms (a real life “Get Hard” which if you missed it is mediocre Kevin Hart-Will Ferrell fare) – he then ran successfully for mayor in 2015 and 2019. Ganim then again ran and won the November 2023 election for his 8th term but there were so many irregularities in the September primary that they needed to re-run the both the primary and the general election in January and February 2024 and lo and behold, Joe Ganim won again. This is not made up – you can google it yourself. There is another trainer that ruled the Derby other than D. Wayne Lukas that reminds me a bit more of this politician than the Old Coach. Hmmmm(?).
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒 🔒
7 Honor Marie 20-1
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Pedigree: Honor Code – Dame Marie (Smart
Strike)
Record: 5: 2-2-0
LSI: 105-86-102
Owners Kerry
and Alan Ribble are really first and foremost horse racing fans. Their first dates was handicapping horses at Oaklawn
Park and they even spent part of their honeymoon at Louisiana Downs (I guess the Caribbean and Hawaii were closed that year). They first got into ownership when Alan gave
Kerry a racehorse for Christmas in 2015. Honor Marie could be an interesting
entry to consider:
-
Won by
open lengths going 2 turns at Churchill Downs.
-
The only
out of the money finish is a 5th place in the Risen Star and that
race was better for Honor Marie than the placing looks – was near the back of
pack 10 lengths off the lead – where all the top finishers were within a few
lengths of the pace on a sloppy track.
-
Brisnet
Speed and Late Pace figures are close to being par for a Derby winner.
-
The 96
dry track Beyer Speed Figure is only beaten by the top 3 horses in the market.
-
Derby
rookie trainer D. Whitworth Beckman’s name is real and not a Season 2 Gossip
Girl character.
-
Derby
rookie jockey Ben Curtis’s name is real and not a British Open Champion
golfer. At 34yo, Ben Curtis is no spring
chicken but he is not highly recognizable in the US as he comes to the US from
a prolific career in the UK, where he had over 100 wins in 5 of the last 6
years.
This one
has a chance at a price.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
8 Just a Touch 10-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Pedigree: Justify – Touching Beauty (Tapit)
Record: 3:1-2-0
LSI: 101-106-101
Justify
is the sire of arguably the best 3yo in the world but that 3yo is named City of
Troy not Just a Touch. City of Troy has
a perfect 3 for 3 record [possibly 4 for 4 by post time of the Derby]. Legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien said
this of City of Troy: “We didn't have a horse as exciting as City Of Troy ever
as a 2-year-old. He looks very exciting and he looks like he'll have no problem
going up in distance.” – this is very high praise given that he has saddled
over 4,000 total winners which includes over 40 British classic winners
lifetime. Also the best 3yo filly
globally may also be by Justify, Opera Singer may be an equally exciting as
City of Troy but won’t see her in the US until perhaps the Breeders Cup at Del
Mar in November.
The owner, Qatar Racing, was founded in 2012. The company, Qatar Racing Ltd, is a subsidiary of QIPCO Holding and represents the racehorse ownership interests of the brothers who own QIPCO. Prior to the establishment of Qatar Racing, Sheikh Fahad had owned and raced horses on his own under the banner of Pearl Bloodstock. This is not the sovereign wealth fund of the country of Qatar but a private entity to manage the wealth of the some of the ruling family of Qatar. Qatar Racing has seen several successes on the track but not quite to the level seen with Gulf neighbors’ ruling families such as racing operations such as Godolphin and Shadwell (UAE) and Juddmonte (Saudi). This is Qatar Racing’s first Derby runner. Of these juggernauts of racing operations, only Juddmonte has had a Derby winner with Mandaloun, another Brad Cox trainee, in 2021.
Just a
Touch does have some similarities to its Triple Crown winning sire. Like Justify, unraced as a 2yo, Just a Touch
comes in off of only 3 starts. Just a
Touch shares with Justify a just off the lead running style. Also Just a Touch hasn’t done anything wrong
in the 3 starts – although Justify was 3 for 3 in his pre-Derby starts - Just a
Touch is 3 for 3 with only win and place finishes.
The unraced
as a 2yo horses are not the complete toss-outs as they were in the past but do consider
Apollo, who won the 1882 Kentucky Derby, was the only Derby winner without
racing as a 2-year-old for 136 years until Justify broke through in 2018. The record of horses in the Derby without a
race at 2 since 1937 is 73:2-3-5. Since
Justify won, even with Mage’s win last year - the average finish for a Derby
runner who hadn’t raced as a 2yo is 13th. Last year, the Locks said
a Derby win was a bridge too far for Mage but was proven wrong – will repeat
the assessment for Just a Touch – may see more success later in the season but
Just a Touch may not be yet ready to win the Derby.
Should
finish top half of field.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
9 Encino 20-1 SCRATCHED
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Pedigree: Nyquist – Glittering Jewel
(Bernadini)
Record: 4: 3-1-0
LSI: 99-108-101
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum’
Godolphin Stable has won almost every major horse in the world - almost - as
the Kentucky Derby remains elusive to the biggest and most expensive worldwide
horse racing operation. Out of the 12 Godolphin
horses that have lined up for the Derby - the best finish has been a 4th by
Frosted in 2015 and a 4th
by Essential Quality in 2022
that was elevated to 3rd with the disqualification of Medina Spirit.
Some
positives that will make the Sheikh happy:
-
Encino
ticket to the Derby was punched in the perceived after-thought race, the
Lexington but don’t sleep on the Lexington runners for exactas and
trifectas – of the 39 that have come to
the Derby with a prep in the Lexington 23.1% have finished in the money – of
the Big 6 Prep Races (Arkansas, Blue Grass, Florida, Louisiana, Santa Anita and
Wood) only the Santa Anita has a higher in the money percentage of 23.8%.
-
Each
race is showing increasing Brisnet and Beyer speed figures.
-
Only
blemish on the record was on debut race where Encino slept on the start but was
able to come charging at the end to miss by a neck.
-
Has
shown versatility in winning coming off the pace and on the lead.
-
After 3
starts on synthetic surface, did show could handle dirt track with the
Lexington win on Keeneland’s main track.
Some
bits of reality:
-
Only
horse in field not to race at least 9 furlongs.
-
Even
running the shorter 8.5 furlong Lexington Encino’s stride efficiency was only 90%.
-
Trainer
Brad Cox had been on the fence on running Encino until a sold workout on 4/27.
-
Jockey
Axel Concepcion is only 18 years old and has only rode in 6 graded stakes
races.
-
Chances
may be compromised by running style – as there is expected to be pace pressure.
Sheikh
Mohammed will have to look to next year for a Derby winner.
As noted jockey Axel Concepcion is riding in his first Kentucky Derby but will certainly not be his last. Concepcion is a true rising star - he won the Eclipse Award for leading Apprentice Jockey and also was the leading rider at Laurel Park's spring meeting all at the tender age of 18. Another rising star in another sport, Anthony Edwards, is making many including the Locks consider if he may eclipse the greatest to ever play the game. Not only does Ant Man statistically outshine Jump Man in certain categories in their first few years in the league, he will get to at least the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs at an age that Jordan was being frustrated by losing in the first round against the Bird-led Celtics. Ant Man simply also meets the greatness eye test. For those thinking that Anthony Edwards doesn’t have the same gene that Jordan and Kobe possessed, think again, Ant Man is recently quoted after a game that he put up stats of 36pts, 9rbs, 5 assists: “I just want to kill everything in front of me, that’s the main thing”.
Lock’s Verdict: SCRATCHED
10 T O Password 30-1
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kimura Kazushi
Pedigree: Copano Rickey – T O Rachel (King
Kamehameha)
Record: 2: 2-0-0
LSI: xx-xx
T O
Password has an entry into the Kentucky Derby for winning the Fukuryu Stakes
and thus clinching the top spot in the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby
series. T O Password, however, is not
the quality of the other Japanese runner, Forever Young. Consider this:
-
T O
Password is not ranked among the top 5 dirt 3yos in Japan.
-
Although
the Fukuryu Stakes is considered a key dirt 3yo race, it is viewed to be a
lackluster running this year with T O Password earning a solid yet unspectacular
91 Netkeiba speed rating. Last year,
Minono O, a more highly rated dirt 3yo earned a 100 Netkeiba rating. To get the Fukuryu Stakes win, T O Password
just held by a short head over a closing Arare Tabashiru.
-
Along
with Just a Touch, T O Password are the only unraced as a 2yo
entrants in the Derby. The “unraced-as-a-2yo” horses are not the
complete toss-out as they were in the past.
However, must consider this
--- Apollo,
who won the 1882 Kentucky Derby, was the only Derby winner without racing as a
2-year-old for 136 years until Justify broke through in 2018. The record of horses in the Derby without a
race at 2 since 1937 is 73:2-3-5. Since
Justify won, even with Mage’s win last year - the average finish for a Derby
runner who hadn’t raced as a 2yo is 13th.
-
Should
expect to be on or near the pace in a race that there is expected to be strong
pace pressure.
-
Sire of
T O Password, Copano Rickey, won an incredible 11 G1 races within the 8 and 10
furlongs and the dam, T O Rachel, won races at 6 and 7 furlongs.
-
T O
Password does have 2 – 9 furlongs wins which only Forever Young, Sierra Leone,
Endlessly can also boast about.
- T O Password’s stablemates are in good form. T O Royal just won the Grade 1 Tenno Sho (Emperor’s Cup). Interesting fact to know that over $300 million was bet on the Tenno Sho program last weekend while the Kentucky Derby card may only expect a total handle of $225 million.
Should
see T O Password prominent during the first 8 furlongs but may not be able to
finish out the final 2 furlongs strongly.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
11 Forever Young (JPN) 10-1
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Pedigree: Real Steel – Forever Darling
(Congrats)
Record: 5:5-0-0
LSI: xx-xx-xx
The rise
in Japanese horse racing has been coming for a long time but since 2021 it has
become acutely apparent on the biggest stages in the world. In 2021, Japanese horses, Loves Only You and
March Lorraine, won 2 Breeders Cup races. In 2022, Japanese horses swept 4 of
the races on the Saudi Cup international racing undercard and then won 5 of the
races on the Dubai World Cup international racing undercard. In 2023, Japanese horses won the Saudi Cup
and 2 other undercard races, won the Dubai World Cup and 2 other undercard
races, and had the number 1 ranked horse in the world, Equinox. In 2024, it
could be the year where a Japanese horse captures one of the world’s most high
profile races in the Kentucky Derby.
-
Last
year’s Japanese-trained and bred UAE Derby Winner, Derma Sotogake ran a
respectable 6th in the Derby.
Forever Young has run in the same last races as Derma Sotogake. Although there are no speed figures for the
UAE Derby, the 2 prior races have speed figures available - Derma Sotogake ran Timeform figures of 94 and
97, Forever Young ran those same races with Timeform figures of 100 and
105. Also the Japanese Netkeiba speed
figure for the Zennippon Nisai Yushun (a race both ran in a year apart) for
Forever Young was 103 compared to Derma Sotogake’s 89.
-
Since
1915, there have been 35 horses that have come into the Derby undefeated of
those, 9 have won (26%). Of those 35 horses – 14 of them, like Forever Young,
had 5 or more wins – of those 14 – 6 won the Derby (43%).
-
Japanese
horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby weren’t necessarily the best dirt
3yos in Japan. Last year, Derma Sotogake
was one of the top ones but this year Forever Young is clearly the highest
rated dirt 3yo in Japan.
-
Forever
Young is a big – long-striding horse – one that will relish the long Churchill
Downs stretch.
-
Forever
Young won the UAE and Saudi Cup running very wide and thus wins could have been
much more impressive if wasn’t given high draws.
- Running style will work in Forever Young’s favor –will come off pace but won’t be in back of the pack like Sierra Leone.
- There is been some snickering about Forever Young's workout times at Churchill Downs 6f in 1:19+ and 5f in 1:03. Slower workout times are not unusual for Japanese horses. Consider that the workout for the aforementioned T O Royal ahead of winning the Tenno Sho - was 3f: 39.1 4f: 55.2 5f: 1:10.8 6f: 126.4 and was B rated.
This is the 150th
Kentucky Derby Lock. これは 150 番目のケンタッキー ダービー ロックです.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒
12 Track Phantom 20-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Quality Road – Miss Sunset
(Into Mischief)
Record: 7:3-2-1
LSI: 100-91-100
One of
Track Phantom’s owners is Clark O. Brewster, a trial lawyer, who sports a
helmet of blonde locks that belies his age (late 60s). You may have seen Brewster recently on the
news as he is Stormy Daniel’s lawyer. Brewster is also known as the lawyer representing
former judge Donald D. Thompson who was accused of using a penis pump in the
courtroom during trials – a case that Brewster came up short in and Thompson was convicted
of 4 years of hard time for indecent exposure. Track Phantom
actually may get as much TV attention as his owner at least for the first 70
seconds of the race. Track Phantom
appears to be the rabbit of the race but anticipate Track Phantom will
disappear off the screen like a phantom after going 9 furlongs.
Despite
having a high quality pedigree, 3 wins including 1 going 2 turns under the Twin
Spires, and solid speed figures, the running style will be Track Phantom’s
undoing.
Locks Verdict: 🔒
🔒 🔒
13 West Saratoga 50-1
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Pedigree: Exaggerator – Mo Wicked (Uncle
Mo)
Record: 10: 2-5-1
LSI: 86-93-99
It would
be as shocking as a metro New York area earthquake if West Saratoga wins the
Derby. The colt was a $11,000 purchase
at the Keeneland September sale selected by Bahamian trainer Larry Demeritte
but has already earned over $460,000 for owner Harry Veruchi. The name West Saratoga is not a reference to
racing mecca, Saratoga Springs but the name of the street Veruchi grew up on in
Englewood, Colorado (check out the silks for Veruchi’s pride in his home
state).
There is
lot to overcome for West Saratoga be given a chance to place:
-
Jockey Jesus Castanon has only 1
other Derby start – a courageous 4th by Shackleford in 2011.
-
Trainer Larry Demeritte’s record
is 2 for 25 in graded stakes races.
-
Will not be able to extend speed
across 10f distance – last 5 races – the highest Brisnet Late Pace speed figure
is 80.
-
Not fast enough – all sub-100
LSIs, no Brisnet Speed Figure that exceeds 89, highest Beyer is 85.
-
Has not won since September 2023
including finishing a total of 34 lengths behind the winners in last 4 races.
- Fair odds should be around 75+-1 but may get bet down to around 50-1 by those looking for another Rich Strike.
Not a factor.
Locks
Verdict: 🔒
14 Endlessly 30-1
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Oscar Performance – Dream
Fuhrever (Langfuhr)
Record: 6:5-0-0
LSI: 99-113-103
Owner
John Amerman would never had thought a movie based on one of his best selling
products while he was CEO would become a 2023 phenomenon but consider that
Amerman was the CEO of Mattel maker of Hot Wheels and Barbie. Amerman has owned horses since 1995 and has
been fortunate enough to have had his horses win 20+ Grade 1 wins. Endlessly has an enviable record of 5 wins
in 6 starts at 4 different race tracks including winning 2 – 9 furlong races in
last 2 races. Last race was an
impressive 4 length run away win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes – the Locks
personally prefers when that race was sponsored by Jim Beam. Homebred Endlessly
sports the highest last 3 race LSI of 113 earned at Golden Gate Park in the El
Camino Real Derby. The rub is that
Endlessly has yet to run on dirt – racking up 3 wins on turf and then 2 wins on
synthetic surface. If not for making Tiz the Bomb the Lock 2 years ago, a horse with a similar profile that showed prowess on turf and synthetic but finishing 9th in the Derby, I would have had Endlessly much higher ranked. Another consideration is despite having qualifying
LSI figures, Brisnet and Beyer Speed Figures both show that Endlessly is
several lengths slower than the top choices. No horse with name beginning with
E has won the Derby since Exterminator did it in 1918. No horse since Carry Back in 1961 has won
springing from gate 14.
Appears
Endlessly may be more Hot Wheels movie (a straight-to-video production) than
the Barbie movie.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
15 Domestic Product 30-1
Owner: Klaravich Stables Inc.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pedigree:
Practical Joke – Goods and Services (Paynter)
Record: 5: 2-1-0
LSI: 80-96-95
Despite
being one of the leading owners for the last 15 years, Klaravich Stables has
only sent 3 other horses to the Kentucky Derby – all 3 have finished in the top
half of their respective Derby fields.
Owner Seth Klarman has made money as an investor and hedge fund manager
and has historically used financial terms as the naming convention for his
horses, successfully campaigned horses such as Balance the Books, Currency
Swap, Deeply Undervalued, Takeover Target, etc..
-
Since
1929, the most days between last start before the Derby and the Derby for a Derby winner was 49
which Authentic in the unprecedented Covid year 2020. Before that, the
biggest break was 42 days. Domestic
Product is attempting to win the Derby off a 56 day gap.
-
Despite
being 1st in jockey wins and/or earnings since 2017, Irad Ortiz Jr.
has not picked the best Derby mounts with 7 rides and no in-the-money finishes
with an average finish of 10th.
-
Domestic
Product’s speed figures are substantially below par – last 3 race LSI’s are 96
or below, top Beyer is only an 87, top Brisnet Speed Figure is only a 91.
- Domestic Product appears to be a plodder. Dictionary definition of a plodder: a person who walks doggedly and slowly with heavy steps – a horse racing definition is slightly more kind: A horse that keeps the same pace all the way. A slow, methodical gainer. This is proven that despite low overall speed figures the Brisnet Late Pace figures are 108 and 125 which seem aberrant. Also last race stride efficiency is over 99%- meaning that horse is not slowing down but keeping steady. Plodder’s don’t win the Derby. They may win the Belmont Stakes in any given year when it is run at 12 furlings (look at the list of winners during the aughts: Sarava, Birdstone, Jazil, Da’Tara, Summer Bird, and the plodders of all plodders, Drosselmeyer) but not the Derby (or the Belmont this year and next as they will be 10 furlong races while the races are run in Saratoga).
- No horse since Carry Back in 1961 has won springing from gate 14.
- The “Other
Chad Brown” is a regular angle that is played at Saratoga in the summer – the
play is get longer odds to bet Chad Brown’s less-favored trainee when he has
multiple horses in a race. Unfortunately, the Locks doesn’t have the manpower
to calculate the “Other Chad Brown” ROI. It is such a known angle that
Domestic Product may be the underlay of the day (underlay: A horse racing at
shorter odds than seems warranted by her/his past performances).
The Other
Chad Brown is a plodder and plodders don’t win the Derby.
16 Grand Mo the First 50-1
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lilies So Fair
(Giant’s Causeway)
Record: 6: 2-0-4
LSI: 95-95-89
Grand Mo the First was one of the last to qualify for the Derby:
-
Seems to
look for trouble – almost every race has a trouble line “Bumped start”,”bumped
3/16th”, “Bumped and steadied”, “Bit slow”, “Hit gate”. Sometimes trouble in a race can be a positive
in that the horse didn’t get a fair chance in a race but a horse that has
continual trouble may be a sign that will get caught in a similar troubled
trip.
-
Started
career with 2 wins in a maiden and an allowance race and then has rattled off 4
consecutive 3rd place finishes in stakes races.
-
Hasn’t
won at a distance longer than 5.5 furlongs and hasn’t won on dirt.
-
Grand Mo
the First’s speed figures are substantially below par – last 3 race LSI’s are
95 or below, top Beyer is only an 87, top Brisnet Speed Figures are all below
89.
-
Jockey Emisael Jaramillo only other ride in the Derby was
an 18th in the 2016 edition.
-
Trainer Victor Barboza, Jr. will send out his first Derby
runner.
- The man behind owner Granpollo Stables is David Geofroy who made his money with his Venezuelan Gran Pollo restaurants in South Florida. The chicken, arepas, and empanadas do look delicious. Check them out: http://www.granpollodoral.com/
If
speaking about finishing position, horse may be more aptly named Grand Mo the Thirteenth.
Locks Verdict: 🔒
17 Fierceness 5-2
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: City of Light – Nonna Bella
(Stay Thirsty)
Record: 5:3-0-1
LSI: 106-94-105
Despite the fact that sale of Queens native,
Mike Repole’s Smartwater, Vitaminwater and BodyArmour to Coca-Cola and Pirate
Booty to B&G Foods yielded billions in proceeds Repole Stable has made
judicious investments into the horse racing industry. Although there have been some high priced
purchases, most of the yearlings Repole Stable has purchased are at a cost
between $100,000 and $250,000 – a mere pittance compared to what the Coolmore
Lads
(note Sierra Leone put back Coolmore a cool $2.3 million) and Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin may spend on
horses. Included in those purchases was
Nonna Mia (a $200,000 Fasig Tipton Saratoga purchase) who when mated with
Repole owned stallion Stay Thirsty yielded Nonna Bella – the dam of Fierceness.
-
Fierceness
is the fastest horse in the field --- speed figures prove that out: Figures for
Florida Derby (106 Brisnet, 110 Beyer) and BC Juvenile (112 Brisnet, 105 Beyer)
are top in field
- Fierceness’ Florida Derby was by far the most visually impressive race by a 3yo this year.
-
Critics
will point to the Holy Bull and the Champagne where everything didn’t go
Fierceness’ way and the colt did not make an impact on the race.
-
There
will be more pace pressure than Fierceness faced in the Florida Derby and BC
Juvenile.
- Fierceness is not a big imposing colt and stride length is not in top half of field however stride efficiency of 95% is very good
Fierceness
will be the Derby rightful favorite but the key to Fierceness’ prospects are
really how Johnny V can get on or close to the lead and not be pressured by the
likes of Dornoch & Track Phantom and others into a torrid pace. If anybody can be up to this challenge it
would be Johnny V can but the Derby is tricky, tricky race to ride. Need Fierceness in the mix but is not the
Derby Lock.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
18 Stronghold 20-1
Trainer: Phillip D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Pedigree: Ghostzapper – Spectator (Jimmy
Creed)
Record: 6:3-3-0
LSI: 104-106-98
Eric and Sharon Waller’s homebred Stronghold’s Santa Anita win was the crowning achievement of this small owner-breeder who has been in the business since 1995 – can they even dream of winning the Derby? “I don’t know that my brain is big enough to take all of that in. None of us were dreaming of winning the Santa Anita Derby six months ago or even three months ago. To think we could be Kentucky Derby winners is just overwhelming and tough to comprehend at this point.” It is possible that their dream may become a reality but they may need to be satisfied with the incredible accomplishments they've reached already:
Consider
this:
-
Trainer
Phillip D’Amato despite being one of the West Coast’s top trainers has yet to
saddle a Kentucky Derby runner.
-
Jockey
Antonio Fresu is a native of Italy and a Derby rookie.
-
Speed
figures overall are not convincingly fast enough – we already have learned that
horses that had a last race sub-100 LSI performance have not fared well. Beyer
Speed Figures are all sub-90. Brisnet
Speed Figures are slightly lower than par and late pace speed figures are
trending downward as Stronghold has run in longer races.
-
Almost
every year it is unclear how good the west coast horses when compared to the
east coast contingent. West Coast based
but ineligible for the Kentucky Derby, Muth who was 2nd in the
Breeders Cup Juvenile to Fierceness went on to win the Arkansas Derby.
- When comparing Stronghold's Santa Anita Derby raw time to the extrapolated Santa Anita Oaks final time - the Oaks appears to be run faster.
-
Stronghold
did win its maiden race at Churchill Downs over Derby runners – Resilience and
Track Phantom.
If
giving a letter grade would give a solid B – the same grade I would give Ms.
Taylor Swift’s latest offering, The Tortured Poets Department although her songs produced by Aaron Dessner (The
National) deserve a grade a notch or two higher.
19 Resilience 20-1
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Meadowsweet (Smart Strike)
Record: 6:2-1-1
LSI: 105-88-102
Resilience
could be one that sneaks into the winner’s circle as the colt may be progressing
to a new level. Besides a first race
clunker – Resilience really hasn’t done anything wrong. The 4th place in the Risen Star is
flattered by the 4 other Derby horses that ran in that race. The Wood Memorial was an improvement that if
Resilience can move on from – Resilience could be in the money. Resilience does have a classic pedigree –
Into Mischief – Resilience’s sire has already sired 2 Derby winners - Authentic
(2020) & Mandaloun (2021).
Resilience last race speed figures (LSI and Brisnet) are on par for a
Derby winner. For Resilience to be in
the money, Junior Alvarado would need to ride a masterful race as would need to
position the colt from the 19 hole into a stalking position and then avoid
getting caught behind fading horses. Despite not being known as a Kentucky Derby
trainer, Bill Mott has a Derby win to his name and is as fine as a trainer one
can find.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒
20 Society Man 50-1
Owner: West Paces Racing LLC, Danny Gargan & GMP Stables LLC
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Pedigree: Good Magic – You Cheated
(Colonel John)
Record: 5: 1-1-1
LSI: 82-100-100
One of
Society Man’s owners is West Paces Racing LLC. West Paces is the name of the
road that Cherokee Town and Country Club sits on which is the golf club that
many of the owners are members of including syndicate founder, Larry
Connolly. Aptly named Society Man is the
socialite man-about-town that hasn’t done much on his own accord to merit his
place as an escort at the finest of cotillions and debutante balls – not 100%
sure the analogy works but there is a T Swizz stanza in there somewhere. Consider that:
-
First 3
races was a combined 35+ lengths behind the winners.
-
Has one
maiden win in the mud at Aqueduct to its name.
-
Booked
entry in the Derby by the unlikeliest (107-1 odds) placing in the Wood
Memorial.
-
Danny
Gargan’s “other horse”.
-
Beyer
Speed Figures are all sub-88. The last
race Brisnet Speed Figure was 102 which is par for a Kentucky Derby winner but
see Society Man as a real bounce candidate.
Bounce theory is where a horse put up a huge career best speed figure
and the expectation that the horse will regress badly next race out. The theory based on that the career best effort
took it’s toll and the horse would struggle to reproduce it.
-
The
ultimate society man is in the saddle the legendary Frankie Dettori. Frankie only has one other Derby mount –
Godolphin’s China Visit – a 6th place finish in 2000.
It’s
midnight - the coach turns into a pumpkin.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Pedigree: Blame - Pick a Time (Gio Ponti)
Record: 5: 2-2-1
LSI: 105-107-98
Epic Ride gets into the field on the back of Encino's scratch. Sheikh Mohammed must wait at least one more year to conquer the unconquerable. Still sorting out background of the owner Welch Racing LLC - there is a Welch Racing out there that focuses on drag racing, racing motorcycles and variety of other motor sports out of Nebraska. Not quite sure if the same Welch Racing LLC that owns Epic Ride. That particular Welch Racing LLC, according to the internet is quite litigious -- with cases against Meta and Mark Zuckerberg and people such as Charity Shack Chick and Double 00 Shitshow. It would be tremendous for Welch Racing LLC vs Double 00 Shitshow become a Marbury v. Madison-esque landmark case.
Who ever the owner is - got quite the luck with being scratched into the Derby field. Just having a Derby runner with, according to Equibase, only 3 recently purchased horses to their name is a remarkable feat. Epic Ride has a 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass and prior to that had all previous 4 starts on the synthetic surface of Turfway Park including 2 open length wins in January and February. This is trainer John Ennis' first Derby starter and jockey Adam Bischizza's 2nd Derby start. Speed figures are a bit below that you'd want to see for a Derby winner but did show some improvement over career. The one figure that is more than a bit off and you'd hope to be significantly higher is the Brisnet Late Pace figure in the Blue Grass - the 76 is a drop off from pervious races and could signal that the additional distance of the Blue Grass was too much. Then, consider that the Derby is going to be an additional furlong in length. Also, the last race LSI of 98 smells of a non-winner. Given the *potential* that this owner may have a penchant of using the court system to solve disputes, I am not going to say anything further.
Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒
Give the following horses consideration if a muddy/sloppy track: Mystik Dan,
The Bets:
Kentucky Derby
◎ 11 Forever Young 10-1
○ 2 Sierra Leone 3-1
▲ 17 Fierceness 5-2
△ 7 Honor Marie 20-1
△ 4 Catching Freedom 8-1
△ 19 Resilience 20-1
◎ 11フォーエバーヤング
○ 2 シエラレオーネ
▲17 フィアースネス
△ 4 キャッチングフリーダム
△ 7 オナーマリー
△ 19 レジリエンス
|
The Locks Rating |
The Locks |
Morning Line |
|
☆☆☆☆☆ |
Forever
Young |
Fierceness Sierra
Leone |
|
☆☆☆☆ |
Sierra
Leone Fierceness Catching Freedom |
Catching
Freedom Just a
Touch Forever
Young |
|
☆☆☆ |
Honor
Marie Resilience T O Password Just a
Touch Endlessly Stronghold Dornoch Just
Steel Track
Phantom |
Dornoch Mystik
Dan Just
Steel Honor Marie Track
Phantom Stronghold Resilence |
|
☆☆ |
Mystik Dan Catalytic Domestic
Product Society
Man Epic Ride |
Catalytic T O
Password Endlessly Domestic
Product |
|
☆ |
Grand Mo the First West Saratoga |
Epic Ride West Saratoga Grand Mo the First Society Man |
Kentucky Oaks
◎ 12 Power Squeeze 12-1
○ 13 Just F Y I 9-2
▲ 5 Thorpedo Anna 5-1
△ 14 Leslie's Rose 4-1
[Epilogue:
-City of Troy did not fire in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket for Coolmore and sire Justify
- The Locks 2nd and 3rd picks in the Oaks finished 2nd, 1st
- According to the GPS data, the order of finish based on the horses that ran the race the fastest would be:
This would result in a good size payout for those that have been loyal to the Locks.]
