2012 Kentucky Derby - The Locks Picks the Early Contenders

Happy New Year!  As well as Happy Birthday to all Thoroughbreds....as all thoroughbreds are one year older on January 1.  So the 2yos are now the latest crop of 3yos thus we can start thinking more seriously about the first Saturday in May under the Twin Spires.


It is highly likely that the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby has already raced.   We'd have to go back 130 years to find a horse that won the Derby without running as a 2yo (Apollo in 1882).  


Not in any specific order lets look at these baker's dozen of horses that may win or at least race in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.


Fed Biz
Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again
Trainer: Bob Baffert


Impressive winner of a 1 mile maiden at Santa Anita.  Bob Baffert thinks highly enough to tab him as a "derby prospect".  Bred for the Derby distance.


Algorithms
Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance
Trainer: Todd Pletcher


2 for 2 including a win in an allowance at Gulfstream Park. Derby pedigree.


Union Rags
Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West
Trainer: Michael Matz


BC Juvenile runner-up, Champagne stakes winner.  Could have been early Derby favorite if colt was able to track down Hansen in the BC Juvenile.   Hansen doesn't appear to be a Derby winner (possibly a runner though) due to running style but Union Rags looks to be on the Derby trail.


Sabercat
Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner
Trainer: Steven Asmussen


Is 3 for 3 in last 3 races.  These races include winning 2 two-turn stakes races by a combined 10 lengths. 


Gemologist
Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector
Trainer: Todd Pletcher


Won already twice going 2 turns at Churchill Downs.  This includes winning the Kentucky Jockey Club.  


Timely Tally
Mr. Greeley - Score, by A.P. Indy
Trainer: Ian Wilkes


Rallied impressively to get 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. 


O'Prado Again
El Prado (IRE) - Leh She Run, by Pulpit
Trainer: Dale Romans


Winner of the 9 furlong Remsen Stakes.  Maiden win also was going 9 furlongs...thus building good foundation for longer races (ie, the Derby). 


Summer Front
War Front - Rose of Summer, by El Prado (IRE)
Trainer: Christophe Clement


Horse is 3 for 3 including 2 stakes races.  Diana Beach win was impressive because of a bad start but rallied to win.  Clement isn't really one known to catch Derby fever and horse is yet to race on dirt but could be talented enough to warrant a dirt try in a Derby prep.


Lemon Juice
Johannesburg - Lemon Lady, by Lemon Drop Kid
Trainer: Dane Kobieskie


Profile of this colt is one that normally I'd tab as my sleeper Derby pick.   Already has 4 wins, never out of the money in 7 starts at 4 different tracks.  Won the Laurel Futurity, a race that has given me early Derby picks of Captain Bodgit (2nd in Ky Derby) and Barbaro (winner Ky Derby).   Only one issue here is that the Laurel Futurity has been dialed back to a 6 furlong race and Lemon Juice hasn't raced longer than 7 furlongs....we'll see if the colt stretches out.


Hierro
Hard Spun - Brief Bliss, by Navarone
Trainer: Steven Asmussen


Vegas future odds have moved on this colt shows that someone likes him beyond just his impressive maiden victory at Churchill Downs in November.


Creative Cause
Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer
Trainer: Mike Harrington


Third place finish in BC Juvenile after a successful campaign through the West Coast's best 2yo races.  Derby pedigree.


Liaison
Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop
Trainer: Bob Baffert


3 wins in last 3 races.  Last 2 races/wins have been going 2 turn in stakes races.  Willl the Indian Charlie pedigree be able to get the Derby distance will be a question that needs to be answered.


Ever So Lucky
Indian Charlie - Bally Storm, by Summer Squall
Trainer: Jonathan Sheppard


Interesting horse to follow....2nd in the Kentucky JC at Churchill Downs.  Something of an enigma.  Horse is trained by Jonathan Sheppard for Augustin Stables which is a combination better know for long-distance turf horses and stepplechasers.   But this is an Indian Charlie colt that likes to race on the front end.


If you are in Vegas any time soon...you can possibly get good odds on some of these by betting a Derby futures bet.


Good Luck!!!!