2025 Kentucky Derby Locks

 

In past, the Locks’s equated its performance in selecting the Derby winner to the New York Jets --- just not doing good enough.  This is proven given fact that had only hit the actual winner of the Derby in 3 of the last 17 (17.6%) with an ROI of -57.8% although better than using a dart board of selecting a winner (5.22%). Perhaps, in a world of selective alternative facts, we haven’t been looking at this the right way.  In fact, the Locks have had 12 out of 17 in-the-money finishes.  Accordingly, if you have made $10 WPS (“across the board”) bets over the years your ROI is a +38.41% for 34 minutes of work.

Past Locks:

2024: Forever Young – placed 3rd – 7.03 -1

2023: Tapit Trice – 7th – 4.53-1

2022: Tiz the Bomb – 9th –  31.00-1

2021: Essential Quality – 3rd *– 2.90-1

2020: Tiz the Law –2nd --  odds: .70-1

2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1

2018: Audible – finish 3rd – odds: 7.00-1

2017: Always Dreaming –  1st – odds: 4.70-1

2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1

2015: Firing Line --  2nd – 9.50-1

2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1

2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1

2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1

2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1

2010: Ice Box– 2nd  – 11.70 -1

2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1

2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1

The Locks is going to continue with the formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.

Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.

Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.

Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books

Winners

Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Before 2023, there was only Giacamo and Rich Strike that had come in with only 1 win and won the Derby but those 2 unlikely winners rewarded those that took the gamble on them 50-1 and 81-1 payouts, respectively.  Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 18-1.  Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.

Runners

As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks has a lot of faith on the premise that "pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young from a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess Snowballs, Utz Party Mix and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race finishes, is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.

We have seen seismic shifts in how the Derby has been run and won in the past 10 years.  From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.  During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively.  Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call. 

In the 8 years between 2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.   The 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses finishing first by those wiring the field.  It also hasn’t been due to slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong and 8 furlong splits have averaged 46 2/5, 1:11 1/5, 1:35.72, respectively. In 2022 with no Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from more than 17 lengths back and in 2023, similarly, we found Mage win after being more than 13 lengths off the pace.  Is the shift back to those that come off pace real OR those that may be on or near lead will prevail?  The Locks will be looking at a horse coming not too far off pace similar to Mystik Dan in 2024– the following are Brisnet P types: Burnham Square, Flying Mohawk, Publisher, Render Judgement.

Although in looking to fill your exotics since 2010:

-          2nd place horses have been (on average) ½  mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8 lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths off the lead.

-          3rd place horses:   ½  mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.

Armed with those facts – will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the winner and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.

Conformers

The Locks enjoys history and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University.  When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class. 

The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.  Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby (which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.

Since 1894-95, the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs have iconically adorned the grandstand like 2 candles on a birthday cake.  The little known history tid-bit is that the Twin Spires were designed by 24-year-old named Joseph D. Baldez who is thought to be inspired to add the ornamental spires from a building that his architecture firm designed several years prior, the then called Central Kentucky Lunatic Asylum.

The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 150 of data already accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when wagering:

Last-race-Locks Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 28 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby favorite and Derby winner despite a sub-100 LSI.  There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen Kentucky Derby winners in last 20 years had last race LSI of 105+.  Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs include:  American Promise, Journalism, Final Gambit, Rodriguez

In the same 29 year period, only Mine that Bird and Rich Strike had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in at least in one of their last 2 races – Final Gambit, Rodriguez, American Promise, Journalism, Grande, Tiztastic, Sandman.

Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 10 out of the last 21 and 6 out of the last 14 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them.  In the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Final Gambit, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Publisher, Sovereignty are all homebreds.

Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very successful with a record of 10 wins out of 203 starters (<5.00%). East Avenue looking to change that trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a 11.5% clip American Promise, Admire Daytona, Journalism are hoping for some luck in its name.

Admire Daytona (Japan), Neoequos (Florda) are the only non-Kentucky bred Derby starters.  The only other Japanese bred starters were Forever Young finished 3rd in 2024, TO Password 5th in 2024, Master Fencer in 2019 and Derma Sotogake in 2023 who both finished a respectable 6th and Mandarin Hero (2023) & Crown Pride (2022) who finished 12th and 13th, respectively. The last Florida-bred horse to win the Derby was Silver Charm in 1997.

Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Evagaline Downs (Coal Battle), Kentucky Downs (Tiztastic) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby winner to win its maiden on foreign soil – Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona are attempting to be other foreign trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has been only 1 Kentucky Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden at Churchill Downs – Flying Mohawk, Render Judgement, Sovereignty, Owner Almighty broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.

Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or second start including 21 out of the last 24 Derby winners.  These entries took longer to break their maidens: Sovereignty, Publisher, Flying Mohawk, Burnham Square, Admire Daytona, American Promise, Final Gambit.

9 out of the last 14 Derby winners have come into the race off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Final Gambit, Rodriguez, American Promise, Admire Daytona, Luxor Café, Journalism, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, Sandman.

In 2019 the streak of favorites winning the Derby ended after having a streak of 6 favorites winning which was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history.  This comes after a period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we are on a streak of 5 non-favorites winning the Derby.

Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby, Render Judgement and Owen Almighty are the horses in the 2025 field that had a true clunker in their last race.

Since 1979, only 2 Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012, Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby mount. Luan Machado (Final Gambit), Nik Juarez (American Promise), Joao Moreira (Luxor Café), Joseph Ramos (Flying Mohawk), Juan Vargas (Coal Battle), are all Derby rookies this year.

The Lock’s is avoiding any political commentary in the below analysis as don’t need a 21yo nerd working for the Federal government scrapping data off the internet to lead the Lock’s being sent to Gitmo (orange jump suit, hood, 95F heat – bad combo) or CECOT (no shirts – when the Lock’s hasn’t been exactly cut like a diamond for several years).

Now for the horse-by-horse Locks’ profiles:

1 Citizen Bull 20-1

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Masterson, Robert E., Ryan, Tom J., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) - No Joke (Distorted Humor)

Record: 6:4-0-1

LSI: 96-100-103

This ownership group who self-appointed themselves the Avengers – insert that emoji with the hand to the forehead here – have 2 horses in the race.  This one appears to be the B Team but does have 4 wins including victory in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  With Bob Baffert back, has the Baffertization of horses winning the Derby by setting the pace returned?  This horse appears better at 8, 8.5 furlongs not the Derby distance of 10 furlongs. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

 

 

2 Neoequos 30-1

Owner: C2 Racing Stable LLC, Parsard, Ian, Shining Stables LLC and Stefania Farms LLC

Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Pedigree: Neolithic (Harlan's Holiday) – Bold Birdie (Birdstone) 

Record: 7:2-2-2

LSI: 95-104-100

From the team that brought you, White Abarrio, a 16^th place Derby horse but one that went on to win multiple Grade 1 races including the 2023 Breeder’s Cup classic, brings Neoequos.  Neoequos meaning is believed to be a variant on Neo Equus or New Horse.   It would be a shocker for Neoequos to win the Derby.  Comes in with only 2 wins – a 5 furlong maiden race and a 6 furlong state (Florida) restricted allowance.  Speed figures don’t help.  Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

3 Final Gambit 30-1

Owner: Juddmonte

Trainer: Brad H. Cox

Jockey: Luan Machado

Pedigree: Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) - Pachinko (Tapit)

Record: 4:2-1-1

LSI: 106-96-101

Juddmonte is the nom-du-race for the late Prince Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud of Saudi Arabia.  Juddmonte is a global racing power that has won the most prestigious races around the world including the Kentucky Derby with Mandoloun in 2021.   The Locks took a big swing and a big miss in 2022 with Tiz the Bomb that like Final Gambit came into the Derby with an impressive win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.  Important to note that Animal Kingdom (2011) and Lil E Tee (1992) used the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (nee Jim Beam Stakes) as launching point for a Derby win both at big prices.  Consider that Final Gambit’s speed figs fit a Derby winner – LSI, Brisnet, Brisnet Late Pace.  Juddmonte only brings horses that have real chance to win – of the 6 that they’ve raced in the Derby – they have 1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3^rd  with an average finish position of 3.5.   Brad Cox and Juddmonte are putting faith into Derby rookie jockey Luan Machado.  Machado has good results working with top trainer Brad Cox with a 45% win/73% in-the-money strike rate in the last 2 months.  The odds are juicy enough to make betting on this colt a true gambit.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒 🔒🔒

 

4 Rodriguez 12-1SCRATCHED

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Masterson, Robert E., Ryan, Tom J., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

Pedigree: Authentic (Into Mischief) - Cayala (Cherokee Run)

Record: 5:2-2-1

LSI: 109-87-96

The other “Avengers” horse is ridden by legend, Mike Smith who has been riding professionally since 1982.  Mike has the most Derby mounts in history – 28 and has won twice.  In history, there were 12 Kentucky Derby winners that were sired by other Kentucky Derby winners.  Rodriguez is one of 4 horses in the field sired by a Kentucky Derby winner.  Is a perfect 5 for 5 with in-the-money starts.  These are all interesting facts but it will boil down to whether this brilliant horse can carry its speed the full 10 furlongs.  My guess will be no but I’ve been proven wrong before.  Those that want to bet Baffert who is looking for his record 7^th win - this would be the one to bet on.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

5 American Promise 30-1

Owner: BC Stables LLC

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Nik Juarez

Pedigree: Justify (Scat Daddy) - Tapella (Tapit)

Record: 9:2-1-1

LSI (Locks Speed Index last 3 races): 120-91-91

Similar to Rodriguez, American Promise is trained by a multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer and is sired by a previous Kentucky Derby winner. The old coach, D Wayne Lukas is still plying his trade at age 89.   He still wears his cowboy hat and Foster Grants and still has horses that have uneven past performances winning big races.  In this case, American Promise won the Virginia Derby – a race that was previously run on turf and later in the year – but 2025 represents the first year the Virigina Derby is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series. American Promise won in fine fashion with a 7+ length win.   Going to pass on giving American Promise strong consideration as this Justify colt has shown up and down performances including finishes of: 5^th, 6^th (2x), 8^th.  

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

6 Admire Daytona (Jpn) 30-1

 

Owner: Junko Kondo

Trainer: Yukihiro Kato

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Pedigree: Drefong (Gio Ponti) - Ice Pastel (Shackleford)

Record: 6:2-2-0

LSI: xx-xx-xx

Admire Daytona is looking to be the first Japanese bred and trained horse to win the Kentucky Derby.  Despite a win in the 9.5 furlong UAE Derby and solid performances in Japan, Admire Daytona is considered the weaker of the 2 Japanese trained horses.   Christophe Lemaire, considered one of the best jockeys in Japan, is getting his 3^rd Derby mount in last 4 editions.   Look for a running style that is pressing – not on pace, nor too far off pace.  Japanese speed figures are a step slower than Forever Young had last year and what Luxor Café brings to Churchill Downs this year.  Look for Admire Daytona to outrun his odds like last year’s T O Password who was also the “other” Japanese horse and finished 5^th.

Locks Verdict:  🔒🔒 🔒

7 Luxor Cafe 15-1

Owner: Koichi Nishikawa

Trainer: Noriyuki Hori

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Pedigree: American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile) - Mary's Follies (More Than Ready)

Record: 6:4-1-0

LSI: xx-xx-xx

The rise in Japanese horse racing has been coming for a long time but since 2021 it has become acutely apparent on the biggest stages in the world.   In 2021, Japanese horses, Loves Only You and March Lorraine, won 2 Breeders Cup races. In 2022, Japanese horses swept 4 of the races on the Saudi Cup international racing undercard and then won 5 of the races on the Dubai World Cup international racing undercard.  In 2023, Japanese horses won the Saudi Cup and 2 other undercard races, won the Dubai World Cup and 2 other undercard races, and had the number 1 ranked horse in the world, Equinox. In 2024 and the beginning of 2025, Japanese bred and trained, Forever Young was 3^rd in the Derby, the Breeder’s Cup classic, and the Dubai World Cup also added a win in the Saudi Cup.  In 2025, other Japanese horses have won at least 3 races at the Saudi and Dubai global race days.  2025 also could be when a Japanese trained horse also will take the Kentucky Derby.

-        Forever Young’s very close 3^rd in the Derby last year followed by 3 G1 wins and respectable 3rds in the BC Classic and Dubai World Cup continued to show to the US and the World that Japanese trained horses are some of the best horses, if not the best horses, in the world.

-        Although Japanese trained, Luxor Café is American bred and one bred for the Kentucky Derby, consider that the sire is Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh and the dam has produced graded stakes winners in the US. 

-        Luxor Café also is the full brother to Café Pharaoh – a 4x graded stakes winner on dirt.

-        Like Forever Young last year – Luxor Café is a big long striding colt that figures to gobble up the competition at the Churchill Down stretch.

-        The Japanese Netkeiba for Luxor Café coming into the race includes a run of 105, 107, 103. Japan’s G1 3yo dirt race winners typically win with a 105 speed figure. 

-        In past Japanese horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby weren’t necessarily the best dirt 3yos in Japan. As with last year and when Forever Young was clearly the highest rated dirt 3yo in Japan – Luxor Café also shares that position.

-        Only horse in field with 2 – 9 furlong wins – only 5 have actually raced 2x over 9 furlong.  Both of Luxor Café’s 9 furlong wins were 5 length demolitions.  

-        Running style will work in Luxor Cafe’s favor –will come off pace but won’t be in back of the pack like other of the top competitors.

 

This is your 2025 Kentucky Derby Lock.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒

8 Journalism 3-1

Owner: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, LaPenta, Robert V., Magnier-Lessee, Mrs. John, Smith-Lessee, Derrick and Tabor-Lessee, Michael B.

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Pedigree: Curlin (Smart Strike) - Mopotism (Uncle Mo)

Record: 5:4-0-1

LSI: 106-98-111

At time of this writing, Journalism is the Derby favorite.  Has the pedigree. Has the resume. Has the speed figures. Has done nothing wrong in the 5 race career.  Although jockey Umberto Rispoli doesn’t have a wealth of Derby experience, he is the hottest jockey on the west coast – banking 22% winners and 54% in-the-money finishes.  If trying to find any question marks here – it would be do the west coast horses stack up against the east coast horses?   There is not a lot of cross-pollination  --- only the past performances of Rodriguez may give clue --- Rodriguez was a non-threatening 2^nd and 3^rd in west coast stakes races – then came to Aqueduct (NY) and won the Wood Memorial. Need to use in all mixes.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

9 Burnham Square 12-1

Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes

Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr.

Pedigree: Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song) - Linda (Scat Daddy)

Record: 6 3 1 1

LSI: 101-104-101

Burnham Square the horse was not named for a place in Kansas – the home state of owners the Whitham family as was the case when, the owner and trainer previously teamed up with 2017 Derby runner McCraken.  McCraken was named (and misspelled) for a small town in Kansas, McCracken, Kansas (pop 190).  But Burnham Square is name of quilting block – the Whitham’s are really battling that stereotype that Kansas is boring.  Burnham Square – the horse comes in with wins in the Holy Bull and Blue Grass stakes – coming from off pace in both.   Has good works on the Churchill Downs oval.  There is nothing truly disqualifying on the resume and has every chance to win the race – but in looking for fault – would say the come-home town on the Blue Grass was not what you would like for a Derby winner.

Lock’s Verdict:  🔒🔒🔒

10 Grande 10-1

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd A. Pletcheri

Jockey: John Velazquez

Pedigree: Curlin (Smart Strike) - Journey Home (War Front)

Record: 3 2 1 0

LSI: 105-101-96

Despite the fact that sale of Queens native, Mike Repole’s Smartwater, Vitaminwater and BodyArmour to Coca-Cola and Pirate Booty to B&G Foods yielded billions in proceeds Repole Stable has made judicious investments into the horse racing industry.  Although there have been some high priced purchases, most of the yearlings Repole Stable has purchased are at a cost between $100,000 and $300,000 – a mere pittance compared to what East Avenue and Sovereignty’s owner Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin may spend on horses. Included in those purchases was Grande who was purchased for $300,000 at the Keeneland September sale.  Mike features prominently in the Netflix series, Race for the Crown.  Grande is lightly raced and although

The unraced as a 2yo horses are not the complete toss-outs as they were in the past but do consider Apollo, who won the 1882 Kentucky Derby, was the only Derby winner without racing as a 2-year-old for 136 years until Justify broke through in 2018 and Mage in 2023.  The record of horses in the Derby without a race at 2 since 1937 is 75:2-3-5.  Since Justify won, even with Mage’s win in 2024 - the average finish for a Derby runner who hadn’t raced as a 2yo is 13th. 

Jockey Johhny V and trainer Todd Pletcher are 2 seasoned vets that combined have 91 Derby starts but as I said of last year’s Derby entrant, Just a Touch, who was unraced at 2 and only with 3 starts - may see more success later in the season but Grande may not be yet ready to win the Derby.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

11 Flying Mohawk 30 -1

Owner: Two Eight Racing, Berry Family Racing LLC and Kaleta Racing

Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman

Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos

Pedigree: Karakontie *Jpn (Bernstein) - Dam: Bonbons Fleur (Twirling Candy)

Record: 6 2 2 0

Flying Mohawk is owned, in part, by former MLB World Series winner and all-star, Jayson Werth’s Two Eight Racing. Werth was a high-profile part owner of last year’s Belmont winner Dornoch. Flying Mohawk is not coming to the Derby with the resume of Dornoch – Flying Mohawk has the lowest BrisNet Prime Power ranking of the field, hasn’t won (or raced) on dirt, features a Derby rookie rider and best win is a ‘non-winners of 1 other than maiden’ race.   Don’t see a scenario where Jayson Werth hoists the trophy on Saturday.

LSI: 102-101-101

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

12 East Avenue 20-1

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh

Jockey: Manny Franco

Pedigree: Medaglia d'Oro (El Prado*Ire) - Dam:Dance Music (Ghostzapper)

Record: 5:2-1-0

LSI: 101-81-90

The name East Avenue is derived from the street that abuts the Saratoga’s Oklahoma Training Track.   It is not the street that Godolphin’s own Greentree Stable is on.  Greentree is described as:

Tucked away behind hedges and stone walls can be found this magnificent 106-acre estate, comprising a training track, two huge stable blocks with accommodation for 96 horses, and a 10-bedroom mansion featuring colonial architecture of the 19th century, with views of the Vermont Green Mountains.

Despite its idyllic setting, it is very unlikely that Godolphin owner – Sheikh Mohammed has ever even spent a night at Greentree.   Its also very unlikely that East Avenue will be the horse that will win the one race that Godolphin has been denied to win despite trying at least 12 times since 1999.  Godolphin has an average finish of 9^th+ in those dozen starts.  This homebred colt has the pedigree but is light on speed figures and also has 2 bad clunkers on the resume.  Pass.

Locks Verdict:  🔒 🔒

13 Publisher 20-1

Owner: King, Gus and Estate of Brereton C. Jones

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Jockey: Irad Ortiz

Pedigree: American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile) -Indian Pride (Proud Citizen)

Record: 7:0-2-3

LSI: 101-96-90

Publisher is owned in partnership between Gus King, a packaging CEO from Alabama and the estate of the late Governor of Kentucky, Brereton C. Jones.  Although the trainer and jockey are some of the leaders in the business, the Locks cannot get past the fact that this horse has still not won a race.  Since 1937, there have been 12 maidens that have run in the Derby, none have fared better than 8^th and the average finish position is 13^th +.  Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒 🔒

14 Tiztastic 20-1

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B. and Smith, Der

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Pedigree: Tiz the Law (Constitution) - Keesha (Tapit)

Record: 8:3-1-2

LSI: 100-93-95

The $335,000 it took to purchase Tiztastic at the 2023 Keeneland September sale was generated from sale of 33,500 Super Slam breakfasts (29,513,500.calories).  Mother and son owners Joan and Ron Winchell are heirs of Verne Winchell’s Denny’s fortune. The Winchell’s have teamed up with the lads from Coolmore on this horse.  Tiztastic is an improving horse – gets the steady hands of Joel Rosario.  Trainer Steve Asmussen wants to shed the title of being the only trainer with over 12 career Derby starters without a winner, Steve has a 26:0-2-2 record.   Don’t like the come-home times and Late Pace Brisnet speed figures to envision Tiztastic winning the Derby.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

15 Render Judgment 30-1

Owner: Baccari Racing Stable LLC, Dream Walkin Farms, Inc., MJM Racing and Rocket Ship Racing

Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Pedigree: Blame (Arch) - Barbara Gordon (Commissioner)

Record: 7:1-2-1

LSI: 97-112-85

The positives of Render Judgment’s chances at winning the Kentucky Derby is:  Kenny McPeek is coming off of last year’s Derby/Oaks double, has win going 2 turns at Churchill Downs, and is relishing the track in the mornings.  Beyond that, it is tough to find more positives as the horse only has a single win and the losses are includes 2 5^ths and an 8^th even its latest 2^nd and 3^rd place finishes were 7 ¾ and 9 ½ lengths behind the winner.  Julien Leparoux is an excellent jockey but hasn’t translated to Derby success with no in-the-money finishes in his 14 starts.  He’s the only jockey with 10 or more starts that has been blanked.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

16 Coal Battle 30-1

Owner: Norman Stables LLC

Trainer: Lonnie Briley

Jockey: Juan P. Vargas

Pedigree: Coal Front (Stay Thirsty) - Wolfblade (Midshipman)

Record: 8:5-0-1

LSI: 97-100-93

Owner Robby Norman, a grocery store owner from Alabama recounts how he got into racing.  “I went through a divorce, something I really didn’t want. We actually had just bought a new home….I went to stay in an apartment in downtown Thomasville by the railroad tracks. I was flipping through channels on TV….I said, ‘You know what? This divorce stuff is negative. I’ve got to do something to get out of this.’ “  From making grilled cheeses over an open flame as the 3:18 goes rumbling by to sitting in the owners box at the Kentucky Derby is quite the ‘something’.  Coal Battle certainly belongs in the race – with its field high 5 wins -including a win over Sandman in the Rebel Stakes.  Trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas both mostly operate out of Evangeline Downs (for those unfamiliar – is in Opelousas, Louisiana) and this is the first Derby mount for both.  Coal Battle’s success has come at 8 and 8.5 furlongs and did falter when stepped up to the 9 furlongs in the Arkansas Derby.   Although it would be quite a turn of fortunes for Robby Norman – the Locks doesn’t see Coal Battle in the mix.

Locks Verdict: 🔒 🔒🔒

17 Sandman 6-1

Owner: D. J. Stable LLC, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables

Trainer: Mark E. Casse

Jockey:  Jose L. Ortiz

Pedigree: Tapit (Pulpit) - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor) 

Record: 8:3-1-2

LSI: 104-98-97

Sandman also is one that has great speed figures, pedigree and connections.   Toss out the 2 aberration races and this Tapit colt has shown steady improvement.  Will have in the mix but the 13s come-home-time and low Late Pace Brisnet figure along with the lugging in during the stretch Arkansas Derby doesn’t give confidence in the top spot.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

18 Sovereignty 5-1

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: William I. Mott

Jockey:  Junior Alvarado

Pedigree: Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) -Dam:Crowned (Bernardini)

Record:5 2 2 0

LSI: 98-107-105

Sovereignty’s chances to win the Derby should begin and end with the 2024 Street Sense Stakes.  Consider this:

-        2 turn win at Churchill Downs

-        Last to first in a race with good pace

-        Beat Derby competitors Sandman and Tiztastic

Let’s also look at some other facts.  Sovereignty has a pedigree to get the 10 furlongs.  Has really done nothing wrong in the 5 race career.  Given an extra furlong in the Florida Derby would have caught the winner.  Has had solid workouts at Churchill Downs.  Will need a fairly hot pace to run at.  Sovereignty is the Locks’ 1B to Luxor Café’s 1A but have given the #2 spot to Final Gambit due to expected odds.

Locks Verdict: 🔒 🔒 🔒🔒

19 Chunk of Gold 30-1

Owner: Terry L. Stephens

Trainer: Ethan W. West

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Pedigree:  Preservationist (Arch) - Play for Gold (Cairo Prince)

Record: 4:1-3-0

LSI: 98-94-101

Each of the connections on Chunk of Gold are really unlikely to be here at the Derby. 

Including the horse itself, Chunk of Gold was a $2,500 purchase at the Fasig Tipton October Sale and started his career sprinting on the all-weather.  In comparison, the average auction price of the non-homebreds was $480,000.

Owner Terry L Stephens is president and founder of Stephens Pipe & Steel, has owned horses since 2006 but only has had a modicum of success but was part of a group that owned 2021 Derby 4^th, O Besos and clearly had caught Derby fever.

32yo trainer Ethan West will saddle his first Derby horse – he’s Kentucky based but has operated mostly at smaller tracks – could be a rising star. 

37yo jockey, Jareth Loveberry, given that his name sounds like an actor in movies that would show on Cinemax after 11pm and that he spent much of his career plying his trade at the defunct Great Lakes Downs seems it would be remote chance he’d get a Derby mount – but don’t overlook that Loveberry in his only Derby finished 2^nd on Two Phils.

As to Chuck of Gold’s Derby chances – the horse doesn’t check many of the boxes needed for a Derby winner.  Only 1 win, sub-100 last race LSI, no =>100 Brisnet speed figs, low Brisnet Late Pace figs.  Will look elsewhere for the Derby winner.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

20 Owen Almighty 30-1

Owner: Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing LLC

Trainer: Brian Lynch

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Pedigree: Sire: Speightstown (Gone West) - Tempers Rising (Bayern)

Record: 7:3-2-0

LSI: 97-101-104

Turned over the writing of the analysis of Owen Almighty to AI as it selected on static data that I fed as the “dark horse” winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby. – as you can see – we can’t turn over our lives to machines just yet  - the human element is still needed.

Owen Almighty, with odds at 30-1, presents an intriguing case for the Kentucky Derby. Owned by Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing LLC and trained by Brian Lynch, this horse boasts a respectable record of 7:3-2-0, showcasing its potential on the track. With Javier Castellano as the jockey, Owen Almighty is in capable hands. The horse's pedigree is notable, being sired by Speightstown and out of Tempers Rising by Bayern. However, its recent LSI figures of 97-101-104 suggest room for improvement. While it may not check all the boxes typically needed for a Derby winner, Owen Almighty’s performance on race day and the conditions of the track could turn the tide in its favor.

AI failed to identify that post position 19 has yielded only 3.2% Derby winners and an average finish position of 12^th – also Owen Almighty front running style may cause the colt to expend too much energy to get in position early to allow OA finish the 10 furlongs strongly.  Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

21 Baeza 30-1

Owner: C R K Stable Llc And Grandview Equine

Trainer: John A Sheriffs

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Pedigree: Sire: McKinzie (Street Sense) – Puca (Big Brown)

Record: 4:1-2-0

LSI: 105-105-97

Rodriguez scratch allows Baeza to scratch into the race.  Cannot find the data to support this but believe that may be the first time that a mare has had 3 Derby runners – 3 years in a row.  The dam Puca foaled Mage (2023 Kentucky Derby winner) and Dornoch (2024 Kentucky Derby runner and Belmont Stakes winner).  That is what you’d say – pretty good genes.  Good speed figs – LSI, Brisnet, Brisnet Late Pace.  Lost to favorite Journalism by ¾ length – so would think if you like Journalism at 3-1 – must certainly like Baeza at 12-1.  Similar to Owen Almighty that the post position and running style may compromise chances.  Baeza wants to be close to the lead and will need to get ahead and across several other competitors to get into a good position before turn one. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

 

 

Give the following horses consideration if a muddy/sloppy track: Luxor Cafe, American Promise, Coal Battle

Kentucky Derby Locks

◎ 7 Luxor Cafe

○ 3 Final Gambit

▲ 8 Journalism

△ 18 Sovereignty

△ 17 Sandman

△ 21 Baeza

 

The Locks Bets are;

 

$20 Win #7 = $20

 

$1 Exacta All over #7  = $19

 

$10 WPS #7 = $30

 

$5 WPS #3 = $15

 

$1 Exacta Box: 7,3,8,18,17,21 /7,3,8,18,17,21 = $30

 

$1 Exacta 7,3,8/7,3,8,18,17,21= $15

 

$.5 Trifecta 7,3,8/7,3,8,18,17,21/7,3,8,18,17= 3 x 5 x 4 =$30

 

Total $20+$30+$19+$15+$30+$15+$30=$161.

 

 

The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line
☆☆☆☆☆	Luxor Café	Journalism Sovereignty Sandman
☆☆☆☆	Final Gambit Journalism Sovereignty Sandman	Burnham Square Rodriguez Baeza
☆☆☆	Baeza Admire Daytona Tiztastic Grande Burnham Square Coal Battle Citizen Bull	Luxor Café Citizen Bull Grande East Avenue Publisher Tiztastic
☆☆	Flying Mohawk East Avenue American Promise Neoquos Publisher Render Judgment Chunk of Gold Owen Almighty	Neoequos Final Gambit American Promise Admire Daytona Flying Mohawk Render Judgment Coal Battle Chunk of Gold Owen Almighty
☆