2023 Kentucky Derby Locks

Last year, the Locks took a swing for the fences with a 31-1 shot and struck out. It wasn’t Carlos Beltran striking out in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS with the bat still on his shoulder – more like Giants punter Sean Landetta whiffing on a punt at Soldier Field.  Indeed, 11 out of 15 of the Locks since 2008 finished in the trifecta but only 3 of the last 15 (20.00%) have actually won the Derby – yes better than a dart board (5.22%) but not good enough.   Consider also that the odds for The Locks’ Derby winners averaged only 4.17-1 – so if you bet $10 win ticket on the Locks over these last 15 years - $150 bet – payout $71.7. ROI = -52.2% .    The Locks has the winner this year and this win may get the Locks back in the black – look for the Locks to be back into positive ROI by 6:47 EDT on May 6^th.  Although this year's race features more scratches than Run DMC's "Jam Master Jay" - the key Locks are all in the field and set to go!

Past Locks:

2022: Tiz the Bomb – placed 9^th – odds: 31.00-1

2021: Essential Quality – 3^rd *– 2.90-1

2020: Tiz the Law –2^nd --  odds: .70-1

2019: Tacitus – 3rd – odds: 5.80-1

2018: Audible – finish 3^rd – odds: 7.00-1

2017: Always Dreaming –  1^st – odds: 4.70-1

2016: Mohaymen – 4^th - 11.80-1

2015: Firing Line --  2^nd – 9.50-1

2014: Danza – 3^rd – 8.70-1

2013: Orb – 1^st – 5.40-1

2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10^th – 14.00-1

2011: Archarcharch – 15^th – 12.50-1

2010: Ice Box– 2^nd  – 11.70 -1

2009: Musket Man – 3^rd – 19.00-1

2008: Big Brown – 1^st – 2.40-1

The Locks is going to continue with the formula of looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers.

Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.

Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.

Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books 

Winners 

Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. Since 1993, there was only Giacamo and Rich Strike that had come in with only 1 win but those 2 unlikely winners rewarded those that took the gamble on him at 50-1 and 81-1, respectively.  Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1).  Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks’ winning strategy.

Runners

As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not that there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races, died young from a diet that consisted of 2 liter Cokes, Burger King Whoppers, Hostess Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds, not just how the race ends, is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits. 

We have seen seismic shifts in how the Derby has been run and won in the past 9 years.  From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.  During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively.  Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.  

In the 8 years between 2014-2021, we had seen speedier horses (the Baffertization of horse racing) prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.   The 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbies have had horses finishing first by those wiring the field.  It also hasn’t been due to slow splits - during those 8 years – the 4 furlong and 6 furlong splits have averaged 46 2/5 and 1:11 1/5 respectively.  Last year with no Bob Baffert, we saw a closer win from more than 17 lengths back.  Do we see the shift back those that come off pace OR those that may be on or near lead?  The Locks will be looking at a horse coming not too far off pace.

Although in looking to fill your exotics since 2010,

-          2^nd place horses have been (on average) ½  mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8 lengths, 1 mile, 3.75 lengths off the lead.

-          3^rd place horses:   ½  mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.

Armed with those facts – will be looking at horses that can carry their tactical speed for the winner and some closers to fill exacta and trifecta finishes.

Conformers

The Locks enjoys history and this year will be no doubt be one for the history books. Any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University.  When they failed to include how Catherine the Great died in the midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class.  

The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.  Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the Epsom Derby (which dates back to 1780) to be fascinating. As well he discovered the French pari-mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky, he established the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky Derby was run.

The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 148 years of data already accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to consider when wagering: 

Last-race-Locks Speed Index (LSI) figures for the last 27 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses with sub-100 LSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 LSI.  There were 2 others with last race LSIs of just 100 that also rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. Thirteen Kentucky Derby winners in last 18 years averaged a last race LSI of 105+.  Those in the field with 105+ last race LSIs is only Two Phil’s.

In the same 27 year period, only Mine that Bird and Rich Strike had won the Derby after failing to register a Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races: Forte, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Verifying.

Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 19 and 5 out of the last 12 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them.  In the 2023 Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Lord Miles, Hit Show, Disarm are all homebreds.

Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very successful with a record of 10 wins out of 200 starters (5.00%). Verifying and Kingsbarns  are looking to change that trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a 11.5% clip. Angel of Empire and Jace’s Road are hoping for some luck in its name.

Angel of Empire (Pennsylvania), Derma Sotogake (Japan), Continuar (Japan), Mandarin Hero (Japan) are the only non-Kentucky bred Derby starters.  Pennsylvania-breds are a solid 14:2-1-1 with Smarty Jones (2004) and Lil E. Tee (1992) as Derby winners. The only other Japanese bred starters were Master Fencer in 2019 who finished a respectable 6^th and Crown Pride (2022) who finished 13^th.

Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Los Alamos (Practical Move), Horseshoe Indianapolis (Angel of Empire), Colonial Downs (Two Phil’s), Oaklawn Park (Sun Thunder), Elis Park (Jace’s Road) . Bold Forbes in 1976 was the last Derby winner to win its maiden on foreign soil – Derma Sotogake and Continuar are attempting to be other foreign trained horses to win the Derby. Interestingly, there has not been a Kentucky Derby winner since 1933 where the winner broke their maiden at Churchill Downs –  Rocket Can and Confidence Game broke their maidens under the Twin Spires.

Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or second start including 19 out of the last 22 Derby winners.  These entries took longer to break their maidens: Practical Move (won on 5^th try as a maiden), Derma Sotogake (4^th try), Rocket Can (3^rd try), Reincarnate (4^th try), Skinner (4^th try).

9 out of the last 12 Derby winners have come into the race off a win in their last prep – this bodes well for: Confidence Game (Rebel), Kingsbarns (Louisiana Derby), Derma Sotogake (UAE Derby), Lord Miles (Wood Memorial), Two Phil’s (JR Steaks), Tapit Trice (Blue Grass), Angel of Empire (Arkansas Derby), Practical Move (Santa Anita Derby), Forte (Florida Derby).

In 2019 the streak of favorites winning the Derby ended after having a run of 6 which was the longest such streak in Kentucky Derby history.  This comes after a period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t win the Derby once. Now we are on a streak of 3 non-favorites winning the Derby.

Since 1952, no Derby winner, has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the Derby. Raise Cain came in 5^th in the Blue Grass last race.

Since 1979, only 2 Derby winners, Smarty Jones (Stewart Elliot, 2004) and I’ll Have Another (2012, Mario Gutiererrez), have been ridden by jockeys riding in their first Derby mount.  Ryusei Sakai (Continuar), Juan Hernandez (Skinner) and Jareth Loveberry (Two Phil’s) are Derby rookies this year.

Since 1949, there have been 6 morning line odds-on favorites (less than 1-1), of these 6 only Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle Slew (1977) have won the Derby, the other 4 (Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure, Tiz the Law and Nashua) all came in 2nd.

Rocket Can and Sun Thunder is out of sire Into Mischief which has produced 2 Derby winners.

1 Hit Show 30-1

Owner: Gary & Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

Pedigree: Candy Ride-Actress, by Tapit

Record: 5:3-1-0

LSI: 101-99-101

In a previous edition of the Locks, we found out that Gary and Mary West made their fortune from a telecommunications company which started in their garage in Omaha, Nebraska and other famous Omahans other than Warren Buffet are Marlon Brando, Henry & Peter Fonda, the guy “Oz” from American Pie, Fred Astaire, Malcolm X, Wade Boggs, Nick Nolte, Gabrielle Union and 70’s era song-writer Paul Williams.  Paul Williams beyond being a prolific song-writer found himself in some iconic movies such as Smokey and the Bandit where he played Little Enos Burdette.  If you haven’t seen recently, despite some inexplicable plot twists, S&theB still holds up – from hit movie to Hit Show.  Hit Show has a solid chance in hitting the board in the Derby at a price (30-1), a colt with continually improving performances, hasn’t done anything wrong on the track (only semi-clunker is after a bobbled start), a pedigree that can with the Derby, along with Angel of Empire, Mandarin Hero and Derma Sotogake, only horse in field to be 1^st/2^nd in 2 9+ furlong races.   Strides are shorter than average in Derby field but more efficient than average.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

2 Verifying 15-1

Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith & Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Pedigree: Justify-Diva Delite, by Repent

Record: 6:2-2-0

LSI: 108-99-100

Verifying is owned by the Coolmore “Lads” who run one of the biggest horse racing operations in the world based out of Tipperary Ireland.   The operation has no less than 60 stallions, hundreds of race horses, and bands of the highest quality broodmares in the world. Verifying is sired by Triple Crown winner Justify who is a Coolmore owned sire.  Its amazing that it will only be Brad Cox’s third year of walking over a Derby horse as he already has a Derby win and a 3^rd to his name and is considered one of the top US trainers – saddling 27% winners (20%+ is considered very very good).  Verifying with early speed may be the run style that will win this year.   Lot of smart people like Verifying this year with good reason but the Locks will be looking at others – as Verifying has found traffic issues in 2 of the 3 races running in 10+ horse fields and that Verifying stride efficiency took a drop from 95% to 93% when stretching from 8 to 9 furlongs. The Lads will have to be satisfied with having a Classic Winner not in the US but perhaps with Auguste Rodin who goes to the 2000 Guineas as a favorite.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

3 Two Phil’s 12-1

Owner: Patricia’s Hope & Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Pedigree: Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters

Record: 8:4-1-1

LSI: 101-94-111

"My father is Phillip and my friend Jerry La Sala who got us started, his father's name is also Phil. They're both in their 80s and they're both characters," owner Phillip Sagan said.about his Derby entrant.  Unfortunately, someone along the way confused the possessive with the plural so the name is Two Phil’s not Two Phils.  Not the first time (nor will it be the last) a Derby runner has had poor grammar/spelling – consider American Pharoah should have been really spelled American Pharaoh – ooops!

Two Phil’s is a speed figure darling – consider that TP has the highest Beyer (101), highest last race LSI (111), highest Brisnet (107), lowest Ragozin sheet (5”).   If you think about the fact that TP has won going 2 turns at Churchill Down and has 4 wins at 4 different race tracks.  TP looks like a legit contender. 

Detractors will have you consider:

-          35yo jockey, Jareth Loveberry, is making his unlikely Derby debut after spending much of his career at the defunct Great Lakes Downs.  Yes, that is his real name and No, he wasn't in any of the movies that they used to show on Cinemax after 11pm.

-          The high speed figs and large jump in figures from previous race would make TP susceptible to “bounce”. 

Two Phil’s’s chances are still promising and the Locks will keep this colt near the top of the list despite the grammatical error in its name.

 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

4 Confidence Game 20-1

Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Pedigree: Candy Ride-Eblouissante, by Bernardini

Record: 7:3-1-2

LSI: 105-96-104

Confidence Game is owned by a syndicate run by Kirk Godby of Fort Worth Texas.   Odds in Vegas shortened on this horse over the last 2 weeks thus many calling it the “wiseguy pick” for the Derby.  There are few things to like:

-          6 for 7 in the money starts.

-          A win going 2 turns at Churchill Downs

-          An E/P running style that may be the preferred style this year

However, there are detractors that the ‘wiseguy’’s may have overlooked:

-          No starts at distance further than 8.5 furlongs – only horse in field without a 9 furlong start.

-          BrisNet Late Pace figures are sub 90 in all starts.

-          Sub-par BrisNet Speed Figures including one of the lowest Prime Power rating.

-          Last race stride shortening ranks in the bottom 5 of the field

-          71 day lay-off – no Derby winner since they’ve kept complete records in 1929 has had a lay-off longer than 49 days

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

5 Tapit Trice 5-1

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm & Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Pedigree: Tapit-Danzatrice, by Dunkirk

Record: 5:4-0-1

LSI: 103-99-100

Knock Three Times (ie Tapit Trice) was a 1970s hit by Tony Orlando and Dawn featuring the lyrics:

I can hear your music playing
I can feel your body swaying
One floor below me
You don't even know me, I love you
Oh, my darling, knock three time
On the ceiling if you want me
Twice on the pipe
If the answer is no

I don’t believe that Tapit Trice’s owner 68yo Mandy Pope uses this precursor to Tinder to secure dates at her Whisper Hill Farms but she may be humming the tune in the winner’s circle on Saturday.  Mandy is known in the horse racing circles by some incredible prices she’s paid for broodmare prospects – including $9.5m for Songbird and a record $10 million for Harve de Grace who unfortunately recently succumbed after a difficult foaling.  Tapit Trice himself was a $1.3 million Keeneland September yearling sale purchase.  It is very possible that purchase price may seem paltry if Tapit Trice wins the Derby which TT has an excellent chance in doing.  Let’s examine:

-      - TT has the longest stride in the whole Derby field with a stride length of 26.59 – only Forte (26.12) and Practical Move (26.01) have last race stride lengths greater than 26 feet.   

-      - TT was able to maintain his long stride across the full 9 furlongs in the Blue Grass with a 95.5% stride efficiency

-     - Since year 2000, gray horses have finished in a superfecta finish (top 4) in 28% of the entries - better than the expected value of 20%.

-      -Tapit Trice pink silks won’t get lost in the crowd but since 1908 – the color pink has been a feature on the Derby’s winning silks  - 6 times.

-     - Discounting first race – Tapit Trice is a perfect 4 for 4 on the track including winning the Blue Grass Stakes.

-      - Speed figures fits for a Derby winner: last race Brisnet >100+, last 3 races late pace Brisnet >100+, 100+ LSIs, decent Rag figures.

-     - TT at least from a figures stand point are improving and are more consistent than his main rivals.

-     - Post position 5 has yielded the most Derby wins since 1930 when starting gates first were used and has the best average finish of all post positions

-     - Only detractor will be whether TT’s typical slow starts will be a detriment or allow Luis Saez to be put in a good position to lay down a stretch run.

       For all this TT is the 2023 Kentucky Derby Lock.

TT reminds the Locks very much like the 2021 Derby Lock and Champion 3yo Essential Quality.  Essential Quality finished 4^th but  Trakus (RIP) data showed that EQ was actually the best horse on the day.  For TT being a Lock we are looking for actual victory rather than a moral victory.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒

 

6 Kingsbarns 12-1

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Lady Tapit, by Tapit

Record: 3:3-0-0

LSI: 100-109-98

Lets look at Kingsbarns:

- Jockey Jose Ortiz hasn’t won the Run for the Roses but has 4 top 5 finishes in 7 starts including 4^th in 2022 on 35.5-1 Simplification.

- Unraced as a 2yo – the stats are somewhat stacked against Kingsbarns.  Apollo, who won the 1882 Kentucky Derby,was the only Derby winner  without racing as a 2-year-old for 136 years until Justify broke through in 2018.  The record of horses in the Derby without a race at 2 since 1937 is 71:1-3-5.  Since Justify won, the average finish for a Derby runner who hadn’t raced as a 2yo is 14^th. 

- A Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone did so in 1996 (historical reference:  Alanis Morisette’s You Oughta Know was on the radio AND Tin Cup[1] was in the theaters)

- Kingsbarns has one of the lowest stride efficiencies in the field losing 11% of stride length in last measured race.

- The stakes race for older horses on the Louisiana Derby card was run significantly faster than Kingsbarns’.

In coming out of the 6 hole, Jose will have only one choice in hustling Kingsbarns to the lead and hope that he can ease the pace before hitting the line for the first time.  In the end, the Locks doesn’t expect Kingsbarns to be in the mix in the end. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

7 Reincarnate 50-1

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables et al;

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Pedigree: Good Magic-Allanah, by Scat Daddy

Record: 7:2-3-2

LSI: 112-101-99

This ownership group who self-appointed themselves the Avengers – insert groan here – paid $775k for this colt.  This horse has Tim Yakteen named as trainer. He is essentially thought to be a caretaker for Bob Baffert who is on a two-year ban that Churchill Downs had placed on Baffert after Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication, but not legal on race day, after winning the 2021 Derby. Speed figures are not up to par with the others despite having stride efficiency of 96%+. The biggest asset here is the jockey, Johnny V is credited with 3 Derby wins and 2 2nds in 24 career mounts. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

8 Mage 15-1

Owner: OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing & CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Pedigree: Good Magic-Puca, by Big Brown

Record: 3:1-1-0

LSI: 103-94-101

Ramiro Restrepo – a Miami-based club promoter turned bloodstock agent has his first Derby horse. Mage could be a very good 3yo after an impressive maiden race and then giving up the lead late in the Florida Derby for a runner-up finish.  The Derby could be a ‘bridge too far’ at this point of career.  Over 107 years of history only 3 have won the Derby with only 3 prior starts:  Justify 2018, Big Brown 2008, Regret 1915.  In the last 3 years, there were 7 horses that had only 3 prior starts that ran in Derby that resulted in an average finish of 13^th.   Further, of the 71 horses from 1937 that started in the Kentucky Derby but did not race at the age of 2 only Justify won.  Similarly, in the last 3 years, there were 8 horses that didn’t race as a 2yo that ran in the Derby that resulted in an average finish of 14^th.  Mage already a shorter striding colt than most of the field also saw his stride shorten by 12%+ during the Florida Derby. 

The Locks will pass on Mage but we might see this one come back and win some stakes this year.

Speaking of a Bridge Too Far – the movie adaption has arguably the greatest cast in movie history, Connery, Caine, Hopkins, Redford, Jimmy Caan, Gene Hackman, Laurence Oliver and John Ratzenberger (yes, Cliff Clavin).

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

9 Skinner  20-1  SCRATCHED

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Pedigree: Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon

Record: 6:1-0-3

LSI: 111-96-102

Skinner is a bit interesting one to consider on the surface. Skinner is a West Coast closer – horses that have been able to see some level of success coming far off the pace on the West Coast speed favoring tracks.  Things that are to be liked on this one:

-          High priced 2yo

-          A pedigree that can win the Derby – sire that came in 3^rd in the Derby from a mare from a sire that has produced a Kentucky Derby winner.

-          100+ late pace Brisnet figures in last 2 races.

-          Very good Ragozin Sheet figs.

-          Solid speed figures that are just slightly below what the Locks likes to see in a Derby winner.

But after skinning the banana – one may slip on the peel if putting Skinner on top.  Consider:

-          John Sherriffs replaced 3 time Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza with JJ Hernandez a Derby rookie.  Granted JJ Hernandez is a talented young jockey who is at top of the Santa Anita jockey colony but the Derby is unlike any other race in the US and experience would help.

-          Despite high late pace Brisnet figures – the raw come home time in the Santa Anita Derby at 13+ seconds is less impressive.

-          The 86% last race stride efficiency is the lowest in the field.

-          Last winner out of the 9 hole was Riva Ridge in 1972.

It is possible this one hits the board but am looking elsewhere.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

10 Practical Move 10-1 SCRATCHED

Owner: Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., Leslie Amestoy & Roger Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Pedigree: Practical Joke-Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex

Record: 7:4-1-2

LSI: 111-100-103

Owner Jean Pierre Amestoy an Albuquerque, New Mexico denizen is more accustomed to winning quarter-horse races than G1 thoroughbred stakes but will have one of the favorites in the Derby.  This one has a lot to like – 7 for 7 in the money races, last 2 race 100+ BrisNet figures, last 2 race 100+ late-pace figures, and is coming in on a 3 stakes race win streak.  Question is whether his breeding will be his undoing – high quality bloodlines but a sire whose progeny has the lowest average winning distance in the field and the mare was a middle distance turf horse.  There is empirical evidence of pedigree impacting stamina found in the GPS data for the Santa Anita Derby – out of all the horses in the Derby field – Practical Move has the most inefficient stride – losing almost 12.5% in stride length during the Santa Anita Derby  – the average shortening of stride in last prep race in the Derby field was 7%.

Locks Verdict:  🔒🔒🔒

11 Disarm 30-1

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Pedigree: Gun Runner-Easy Tap, by Tapit

Record: 5:1-2-2

LSI: 104-94-102

Owner of Disarm – the Winchell family made their money through their Winchell Donuts and then Denny’s –its important to note that the winner of the Derby could afford to buy 167,400,000 calories worth of Grand Slam Breakfasts.

Other facts that may be more pertinent to probability of Disarm’s success at the Derby:

-          Despite Rich Strike winning the Derby with only 1 win to its name – Derby runners with only 1 win don’t usually see success at the Derby

-          Top notch pedigree.

-          Solid stride efficiency of 95% while coming in 3^rd in the Lexington

-          Jockey Joel Rosario is a Derby winner and has 7 Top 5 finishes in 11 Derbies.  

-          Trainer Steve Asmussen sits atop the list of most Derby starts without a win but has seen success with last year’s runner-up Epicenter.   

There are others in the field with similar running style that are more accomplished and faster – Pass.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

12 Jace’s Road 15-1

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Pedigree: Quality Road-Out Post, by Silver Deputy

Record: 6:2-0-2

LSI: 98-88-92

Jace’s Road is Brad Cox’s 4^th string but did make the field which is a feat in itself.  High priced yearling with a solid pedigree. Jockey Florent Geroux when teamed up with Brad Cox over the last 60 days has an impressive 26% strike rate.  Has two races going 2 turns at Churchill Downs. Could be part of the early pace scenario.  Slow speed figures (slowest horse in field according to Beyers,Rag sheets, TimeForm) and inconsistency in performances spell out that this colt will not finish in the top half.

Locks Verdict:  🔒🔒

13 Sun Thunder 30-1

Owner: R. T Racing Stable & Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Pedigree: Into Mischief-Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro

Record: 6:1-1-1

LSI: 96-89-96

Sun Thunder is owned in part by medical doctor Ramon Tallaj’s RT Racing Stable – the other owner Kevin Moody may need medical attention if this horse who will be expected to come from back of the pack miraculously wins the race.  Despite a regal pedigree and a high price tag as a weanling, it is improbable that Sun Thunder will win the Derby – low speed figures (all Beyers sub-90, all Brisnet sub 100), only has 1 win to date, threw in 2 clunkers in last 2 races, a running style that may leave Sun Thunder too much to do in the stretch.  Also for followers of Colorstrology will note that the March 12 foal date suggests the color Apricot to be a lucky color which the blue and green silks betray.  Given these factors, Sun Thunder is this year’s New-England-Patriots-Women’s-Size-Medium-Tom-Brady-Jersey selection.[2]

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

14 Angel of Empire 8-1

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Pedigree: Classic Empire-Armony’s Angel, by To Honor and Serve

Record: 6:4-1-0

LSI: 106-97-104

Angel of Empire owner Dennis Albaugh made his money in agrochemicals (aka pesticides) and is known in some circles as the King of Crop Protection – it’s a big business as he was Iowa’s first billionaire. 

Lot to like about this Pennsylvania-bred colt:

-          Jockey Flavien Prat is a Derby winner and out of 5 tries in the Derby has 4 in-the-money finishes.

-          When trainer Brad Cox teams up with Flavien Prat – they have a 35% win and 60% in-the-money strike rate.

-          Comments from Brad Cox suggest that AofE is his best hope for a Derby winner.

-          Last race stride efficiency is highest in the field of 98%.

-          Speed figures are in range for a Derby winner and improving – solid LSIs, Rag sheet, Brisnet, last pace Brisnet – only Beyers are off-par.

-          Put line through AofE’s lone turf start has not done anything wrong on the track.

-          4 overall wins including 2 – 9 furlong wins and winning at 3 different tracks

The only hold back on making Angel of Empire the Derby Lock is the expected pace.  Angel of Empire may need a :46/47 – 1:10/1:11 pace to run at to win.  The Locks doesn’t see the pace unfolding that way but there is strong expectation will be in the mix in the final furlong.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

15 Forte 3-1   SCRATCHED

Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Pedigree: Violence-Queen Caroline, by Blame

Record (Starts:1^st-2^nd-3^rd): 7:6-0-0

LSI (Locks Speed Index last 3 races): 99-101-102

Despite the fact that sale of Queens native, Mike Repole’s Smartwater, Vitaminwater and BodyArmour to Coca-Cola and Pirate Booty to B&G Foods yielded billions in proceeds  Repole Stable has made judicious investments into the horse racing industry.  Although there have been some high priced purchases, most of the yearlings Repole Stable has purchased are at a cost between $100,000 and $250,000 – a mere pittance compared to what the Coolmore Lads and Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin may spend on horses.  Included in those purchases have been Uncle Mo – purchased for $220,000 but went on to become the Derby favorite only to be scratched the day before with a gastrointestinal infection – now Uncle Mo is one of the top US sires demanding nearly its yearling price for each mare cover.   Also consider that Forte who will be this year’s Derby favorite only cost $110,000 at auction as a yearling -- there is so much to like about the Kentucky Derby favorite:

-          Most wins (6) in the field across 4 different race tracks including 4 G1 wins.

-          Top jockey Irad Ortiz rides

-          Top trainer Todd Pletcher trains

-          Last 3 races are 100+ Brisnet figures

-          Top Brisnet Prime Power rating in field

-          2 out of last 3 races with 100+ Late Pace Brisnet figures

-          Winner of the Florida Derby.  Since 1980, the Florida Derby has yielded 13 winners of the Kentucky Derby – more than any other prep race.

-          Top 3 in longest striding horses.

Any vulnerabilities?  Yes – looking at speed figures – while most of the Derby field show improvement race over race as the horses mature from 2yo to 3yo – Forte has leveled off or even regressed in a small bit.   Also stride efficiency for the longer Florida Derby was 93% while in the race prior, the Fountain of Youth, Forte had an impressive 98% stride efficiency – a drop off at the longer distance.  Will need Forte in the mix but looking elsewhere for the Derby Lock.

 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

16 Raise Cain 15-1

Owner: Andrew & Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Pedigree: Violence-Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid

Record: 7:2-1-1

LSI: 95-96-99

Raise Cain was almost sold by owner Andrew and Rania Warren at the OBS June 2yo sale last year but the Violence colt didn’t meet its reserve and the Oklahoma based owner sent RC off to Ben Colebrook to train to horse.  RC has 2 wins (maiden at Keeneland and an emphatic win in the Gotham at Aqueduct) peppered in with several sound defeats. Raise Cain’s speed figures are some of the lowest in the field and the only scenario I see the horse having a shot at winning is if the track turns up muddy and even then there are more likely winners. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

17 Derma Sotogake 10-1

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie, by Neo Universe

Record: 8:4-0-2

LSI: xx-xx-xx

It is certainly the halcyon days for Japanese horse racing proven by Japanese success across the globe.  Each year there are 3 major horse racing events that features horses from all around the world  – these are Saudi Cup Day, Dubai World Cup Day and the Breeders Cup.  Since 2021, at these events, Japanese-bred or trained horses have won no less than 19 contests.  These races were across surfaces (turf and dirt) and distances (sprints, middle distance and long distances).  Right now – the Number 1 ranked horse in the world is Equinox – a Japanese-bred and trained horse that dazzled the planet in the Dubai Sheema Classic - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QoQOhflbXQ – please take a look for yourself.  There also is budding superstar in Japan called Liberty Island – a 3yo filly that won the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) that may take on the boys in the Japan Derby.  Although, the best horses in Japan ply their trade on the turf – the Japanese dirt racing program is impressive too as proven by big global dirt racing wins such as Ushba Tesoro winning the 2023 Dubai World Cup which was a few races after Derma Sotogake put on a jaw dropping performance in the 2023 UAE Derby.  Lets examine Derma Sotogake’s successes:

-         ダーマソトガケはドバイで速く走りました.  Derma Sotogake was clocked running the 1900m (approx. 9 furlongs) UAE Derby in 1m 55.81s if extrapolated out to 2000m at 2m 1.9s compared to Ushba Tesoro’s  World Cup time of 2m 3.25s thus Derma Sotogake ran about 7 lengths faster.

-          ダーマソトガケはドバイでのスピードフィギュアが良かった。 Although no Beyers or Brisnet figures are calculated for the Dubai races – it has been suggested that the Beyer may be around 104 and other suggested that the Brisnet speed figure would be 103 with a late pace Brisnet figure of 110

-          ダーマソトガケは100%1位2位3位 -Discount his first 2 turf starts – Derma Sotogake has 100% in-the-money finishes.

-         ダーマソトガケは4競馬場で4回優勝.  4 wins came across 4 different race tracks. 

-         ダーマソトガケは9ハロン以上で3勝.  Has 3 wins at 9+ furlongs.

-          ダーマソトガケは日本最高のダート3歳競走馬です。Past Japanese participants in the Derby weren’t necessarily even the top dirt 3yos in Japan. This year Derma Sotogake may be the best dirt 3yo along with a colt named, Mitono O.

The Locks was about to coronate Derma Sotogake as the Derby Lock – with the vision that Derma Sotogake could get out in the first flight of horses and then just gallop away from all challengers in the stretch toward victory….but then there was the post position draw putting Derma Sotogake out at Post 17, 16, 15, 14.  This will make it more difficult to get out near the lead without exerting incredible energy early to get across the track ahead of the onslaught of horses charging for a similar spot.  With Practical Move et al. scratching out of the race, Derma Sotogake will move to Post 14 and this will still compromise a move for Lemaire on Derma Sotogake to take control of the race on the front end. Post 14 is a bit of a purgatory as the Post has yielded only 3% winners with last winner springing from this post was in 1961. - Post 17 is the Derby’s version of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – no championship is going to be won from there.  Since the use of starting gates was established in 1930, no Derby was won from Post 17 and the last horse that had a runner-up finish from that post was Forty Niner in 1988.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒🔒

18 Rocket Can 15-1

 

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Pedigree: Into Mischief-Tension, by Tapit

Record: 7:2-2-0

LSI: 97-96-99

Frank Fletcher, a Little Rock, Arkansas native, names all of his horses with a “Rocket” for colts and “Rockette” for fillies in honor of his favorite dog Rocket.  Frank is a business man that owns car dealerships and stakehouses.  Although has campaigned some good horses, Rocket Can will be Frank’s first Derby horse. Rocket Can has won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and also has a 2 turn victory at Churchill Downs on the curriculum vitae.  Rocket Can then had a troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby being held 4 wide and then not gaining ground on the far turn only to finish 4^th as the beaten favorite.  Only Barbaro and Go for Gin has pulled off the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby double but both Barbaro and Go for Gin had better prep races before the Derby than Rocket Man’s.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

19 Lord Miles 30-1  SCRATCHED

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Jockey: Paco Lopez

Pedigree: Curlin-Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior

Record: 5:2-0-1

LSI: 86-93-101

Lord Miles’ owner Peter Vegso is the publisher that is behind the Chicken Soup for the Soul books – compilation of true, inspirational stories.  If Lord Miles wins the Kentucky Derby, it would fit right in that series of self-help books – after a couple of sound defeats in the Holy Bull (6^th) and the Tampa Bay Derby (5^th) – it was surprising just to see this home-bred colt entered into the Wood Memorial – bettors dismissed Lord Miles’ chances sending the him off at 59-1 – after being bumped at the break and then shuffled back to 4^th and parked wide – looked like this one was again destined for an out-of-the-money finish but on the far turn hooked up with Hit Show and fought toughly with that gray colt down the stretch to eek out a nose victory – gaining entry into the Derby.   Despite an efficient stride which translates that Lord Miles may be running better than others at the end of the Derby, the Locks doesn’t see Lord Miles adding another chapter to the book – others with similar racing styles appear to be faster horses, the Wood Memorial looks like a much weaker version this year,  hasn’t fixed consistent problems leaving the gate.

Lock’s Verdict:  🔒🔒

20 Continuar 50-1  SCRATCHED

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Pedigree: Drefong-Pan de Ring, by King Kamehameha

Record: 5:2-1-1

LSI: xx-xx-xx

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is no stranger to winning on the biggest stage in the US.  In 2021, Yahagi-san’s charges Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine won at the Breeder’s Cup at Del Mar.  Marche Lorraine won at 50-1 just like Continuar’s morning line odds.  Yahagi-san also knows how to win Triple Crown races.  Yahagi’s Contrail swept the 2020 Triple Crown in Japan. Continuar made it to the starting gate by virtue of winning the Cattleya Stakes as part of the Japan Road to the Derby.  Continuar has won at 9 furlongs. Continuar was runner-up by a mere nose to Derma Sotogake last November but was most recently 3^rd and 10 lengths behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby.    Post position 18 has yieled 2 winners including the 2019 winner.. Continuar’s Japanese speed figures are nothing special but that also was the case with Marche Lorraine.  Would be quite miraculous for Continuar to win.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

21 Cyclone Mischief 50-1

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables Llc And Castleton

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: TBD

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Areyoucominghere (Bernadini)

Record: 7:2-0-3

LSI: 85-95-99

With Practical Move's scratch got into the race as the next highest Road to the Derby points getter - 3rd in Florida Derby, 3rd in the Fountain of Youth. Great pedigree and high priced yearling. But reality is that the speed figures are on low side.  One of the shortest striding horses in the field.  Will not be a repeat of last year where Rich Strike got a late nod into the Derby and improbably won. 

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒

22 Mandarin Hero 20-1

Owner: Hiroaki Arai

Trainer: Fujita Terunobu

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby - Namura Nadeshiko (Fuji Kiseki)

Record: 6:4-2-0

LSI: xx-xx-103

Mandarin Hero is another horse that has made its way into the field via a scratched horse.  Mandarin Hero is Japanese bred and trained but came over to the US for the Santa Anita Derby finishing 2nd losing by just a nose.  Mandarin Hero earned a 100 Brisnet and a 106 late pace Brisnet figures.   The fact that Mandarin Hero had not competed at all at the highest level of racing in Japan can speak volumes on the quality of Japanese horse racing.  Mandarin Hero only raced at an Oi race track which is small dirt race track in Tokyo close to Haneda Airport.  Mandarin Hero is a NAR horse whereas Derma Sotogake is a JRA horse.  NAR horses usually race at a local track during the week with a lower quality of racing.  JRA races are mostly weekend affairs and feature the highest level racing that exists in Japan.  Although there is no equivalent in the US perhaps it would be like a horse that raced all races at Thistledown came to the Derby.   Despite racing at the lower level in Japan albeit very successfully was able to compete with some of the better horses in the US.  Looking at Mandarin Hero's Japanese speed figures - they may align with 50-70 Beyer speed figures.  In each of Mandarin Hero's races in Japan showed a closing kick which goes against the normal grain as NAR tracks are much more speed favoring.   Mandarin Hero's stride efficiency was much better than any of the other rivals in the Santa Anita Derby.  Willing to give MH a shot in the exotics.

Locks Verdict: 🔒🔒🔒

23 King Russell 50-1

Owner:  Brereton C. Jones and Naber Racing, LLC

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Jockey: Rafeal Bejarano 

Pedigree: Creative Cause - Believe You Will (Proud Citizen)

Record: 6:1-3-0

LSI: 97-96-100

King Russell makes 3 horses coming off the also eligible list to be added to the Derby field.  Do not expect King Russell to be a factor in the race.  Has only 1 win - took 5 times to break maiden - modest speed figures (lowest Beyers in field).  Appears that former Kentucky governor Brereton Jones and part owner of King Russell is allowing the other part owner Naber Racing silks to be used in the Derby. a bio of Naber Racing LLC principal Roger Naber can give hint on why the silks are so garish: Roger Naber has been promoting the Blues for over 25 years, as an independent promoter, as owner of the twice-honored KBA Blues club Grand Emporium in Kansas City, as co-founder of the Kansas City Blues Society and the Kansas City Blues & Heritage Festival, and as the co-founder of the Ultimate Rhythm and Blues cruise.  

Locks Verdict: 🔒

---------------------------------------------

Give the following horses consideration if a muddy/sloppy track:

Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Raise Cain, Rocket Can, Confidence Game.

 

The Bets:

Kentucky Derby

◎ 5 Tapit Trice 5-1

○ 17 Derma Sotogake 10-1

▲14 Angel of Empire 8-1

△ 3 Two Phil’s 12-1

△ 22 Mandarin Hero 20-1

 

The Locks Bets are;

 
$20 Win #5 = $20
 
$1 Exacta All over #5  = $17
 
$10 WPS #5 = $30
 
$5 WPS #17 = $15
 
$1 Exacta Box: 3-5-22-14-17 = $20
 
$1 Exacta 5-14-17/3-5-22-14-17 = $12
 
$1 Trifecta 5-14-17/3-5-22-14-17/3-5-22-14-17 = 3 x 4 x 3 =$36
 
Total $20+$30+$17+$12+$30+$15+$36=$160.

 ◎ 5 タピットトライス5-1

○ 17  デルマソトガケ10-1

▲14 エンジェルオブエンパイア 8-1

△ 3 トゥーフィルズ 12-1

△ 22 マンダリンヒーロー20-1

Kentucky Oaks

◎ 7 Wet Paint 5/2

○ 11 Defining Purpose 12-1

▲8 Promiseher America 30-1

△ 3 Gambling Girl 15-1

△ 6 Botanical 4-1

The Locks Rating	The Locks	Morning Line
☆☆☆☆☆	Tapit Trice	Forte
☆☆☆☆	Derma Sotogake Angel of Empire Forte Two Phil’s	Tapit Trice Angel of Empire Practical Move Derma Sotogake
☆☆☆	Skinner Hit Show Practical Move Verifying Kingsbarns Rocket Can Continuar Disarm Mandarin Hero	Two Phil’s Kingsbarns Mage Verifying Confidence Game Skinner Mandarin Hero
☆☆	Mage Lord Miles Raise Cain Confidence Game Cyclone Mischief Jace’s Road Reincarnate Sun Thunder	Hit Show Disarm Rocket Can Lord Miles Cyclone Mischief
☆	King Russell	Jace’s Road Reincarnate Raise Cain Sun Thunder Continuar King Russell

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[1] Tin Cup derailed the Locks in what was to be the greatest golf movie since Caddyshack, “18 Holes” an R-rated buddy dramedy loosely adapted from Shakespere’s King Lear  – the script only got to the treatment phase and there were no takers when the script was attempted to be shopped at the Farmer’s Market during a trip to Los Angeles.  “There won’t be another golf movie for another 15 years” is the best response the Locks got from an Assistant to an Assistant Producer at Paramount.

[2] If Sun Thunder wins the Derby, the Locks will wear said garment on next international flight.